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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Only one PB Oldham competition entrant over-stated Labour i
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Only one PB Oldham competition entrant over-stated Labour in the by-election and he wins by a huge margin
The sensational Oldham result took all but one of the 320 PB competition entrants by surprise. Michael Patterson wins the prize of the Cowley/Kavanagh book of the 2015 general election
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Edit - at least I scored a first
"An alternative derivation has been put forward. This maintains that 'hattes' were mediaeval veal pies and hence the phrase derives from them. There is some evidence that 'hattes' were a form of pie. " http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/eat-my-hat.html
Many years ago I read a variation of this (source long since forgotten), that 'hatte' was a fermented milk concoction fed Dutch kids as a tonic. Thus it was a bargaining ploy by kids which evolved into the meaning of "I'm so confident this won't happen that I'll promise to do something really undesirable if it does."
If indeed it is a venison pie, eating your hat may be quite pleasurable, depending on the cook and the recipe.
Anyone remember?
Also:
"p.s. I have a mea culpa to admit. Before the Oldham polling day, I confidently stated that Labour would not increase its vote share. Indeed, so categorical was I that I said I would eat Lord Ashdown’s hat it they did. Well, no-one gets it right all the time and I was probably tempting fate quoting that foolishly dismissive reference. I trust the honourable readers of politicalbetting will permit me to consume humble pie in lieu of the Lib Dem Lord’s headwear (which in any case, he should have already eaten)."
I think that's accepted, humble pie it is.
But Lord Ashdown's hat is becoming more and more notorious in prediction circles.
Something like Macbeth in acting circles:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h--HR7PWfp0
From now on it's best to never say that notorious phrase when making a prediction.
You can find your entry here if you cannot remember what it was...
http://show.nojam.com/a2t7/search.php?b=0
However, in light of the result, it may just have been that people who were already anti-Labour were more vocal than they would usually have been.
"Ultimately, we do not have a reliable indicator of election percentages. Polls, betting odds, modellers, wisdom indices, all have a undesirably large margin of error and are sometimes catastrophically wrong. Future research should concentrate on the one thing that we might be able to predict correctly: namely, who will come first. Predictions of ercentages or margins should be abandoned"
Any thoughts?
The original speculation started from anti-Corbynites that since Corbyn is so unpopular and an electoral disaster even UKIP can at least come close, many mentioning Heywood as an example.
HYUFD in particular constantly mentioned that Corbyn would lose Oldham in order to lead to his replacement with a coronation of Hilary Benn, per his usual theory of historical repeats of the IDS situation.
isam said:
'I posted a link earlier, and am surprised no one has commented, to an interview last month, after the Paris atrocities, where Hilary Benn all but rules out air strikes on Syria... I don't get why more isn't made of this or at least an answer found as to why he changed his mind?'
I think the key change for Benn will have been the UN resolution.
felix said
'Indeed - so you're happy for all benefits and wages to be cut by around 1% immediately as prices are falling?'
That is a separate issue - though if the price level did fall by a third all Benefits - including Retirement Pensions - would have to be cut! It would be a deflationary environment of which we have no experience but if it came to pass all Government spending would have to fall in nominal terms. Employers would have to do likewise - otherwise few would survive!
Benn remained a step behind the curve, or simply that he calculated that Corbyn would take a big hit in the Oldham by-election and started believing that he could take the leadership, so he wanted to be on the right side of the narrative (or even worse he reads PB and believed all that HYUFD stuff about his coronation).
Whilst apparently not very cold, the constant wind/rain certainly makes it feel wintry. Ten inches of rain is expected to deluge the north-west, which sounds horrendous.
Congrats to Mr. Paterson.
However, as per Cameron leading the Leave campaign, I shall believe this when I see it.
Trying to keep a straight face...
Indeed one of the greatest stories never told about the end of WW1 was the small detachment of volunteers from Dunsterforce who travelled north from Persia into Turkey to rescue the Assyrian population who were fleeing the regular Turkish army who were advancing around Lake Van and massacring the Assyrians. These few men armed with Lewis guns guarded the passes south and formed a rearguard against a division of Turkish troops allowing tens of thousands of Assyrians to escape to safety.
They'd be nuts to defect (unless Cameron's replacement was a raving EU-phile).
You all got it right this time.
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Right now that's clearly UKIP.
Perhaps when Corbyn's true nature drives home more widely, that answer will change.
'Tory MP who voted to bomb Syria in Facebook death threat row after adding 'unless you die' to constituent's email'
http://tinyurl.com/j4otpww
Seems you're nobody nowadays unless you've had a death threat.
When it's Corbyn versus Someone Else, the Someone Else (hopefully...) will have the significant advantage of not being a total fruitcake.
Who do they dislike more - Corbyn, UKIP or Manchester United?
What a b1tch ! She spoilt her own case.
House prices and house rental have been increasing at between 5% and 10% for some years but not included in the CPI.
In the real world housing costs are a high proportion of spending and house price inflation is a killer for younger and/or less wealthy people.
PB comments areas of little expertise: forecasting election results
I'm sure the site would welcome your own Delphic predictions.
If you'll excuse me reiterating what I said below: we should give up predicting margins, percentages, number of seats, and limit ourselves to saying who will have the most votes/seats. Collectively, PB is quite good at that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uxbridge_by-election,_1997
In 2015 there was a hung parliament and PB comments predicted another hung parliament
With 2020 in mind, there is currently a majority government and PB comments predicts another majority government
As for 2020 Common(s) sense says that Corbyn will be a vote repellent, that is not coming from any deep political knowledge only found here though
That's effectively what the insistence on a security council resolution means (I've assumed they already believe the US has a decisive say).
This is a genuine question, btw: I just can't understand the rationale.
But then, so does the concept of a legal war. Will Daesh sue us if we have an illegal one?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/football/market/1.118280153
It is a system which I believe has a great deal of merit, based as it is on a shared set of values - a set which, as it happens, we were able to have a great deal of influence over when it might so easily have been other countries who have a different cultural outlook to ours.
Did you see in the Spectator article, how the momentum types are now saying that it is foolish to use the UN as a measure of whether military action is justified - when those Tory bar stewards the Chinese and Russians can't be relied on to vote no?
Almost as if they were using the UN as an excuse....
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_IyFniOZG2ATHjS00E99v_k06ZujKu2otE9aNfILm5s/edit?usp=sharing
He is really upset at the buffers the SNP have run into. Plus the fraud and corruption.