politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Syria vote: Cameron looks set to win but how many LAB M
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Syria vote: Cameron looks set to win but how many LAB MPs will back him?
Voting takes place at 10pm and the result should be known within about 16 minutes. Then there’ll be the wait, not too long, for the division lists so we can see who has not followed their parties.
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First!0
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Joe Oliver @joe_oliver 10m10 minutes ago
Would be a majority of circa 135 - larger than many are saying but based on expecting c.12 Tory rebels meaning Govt get.. 1/2 #SyriaVote
Joe Oliver @joe_oliver 8m8 minutes ago
..c.317 Tory MP (-rebels/Deputy Speaker)+c.6 Lib Dems, 11 Unionists, and c.50 Labour MPs (maybe a few more) voting for #SyriaVote 2/2
Joe Oliver @joe_oliver 7m7 minutes ago
Of course could be wildly wrong as 90 minutes or so of debate still to go atmosphere during winding up speeches could be crucial #SyriaVote
(Oliver notes a couple of Labour "rebels" can't vote.)0 -
Third like the Tories in Oldham.0
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Hecklers on SKY news outside Westminster0
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I had expected the Labour rebels to be around 40 so worse than that. The main point however in terms of politics is that they are in a gigantic mess as there seems to be no strategy to clear the decks and start again. I noted yesterday that they're starting to tank in the polls - but the story has a long way to run and I doubt they'll stay above 30 % soon.0
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Just starting on C4, third and final programme in focus on one murder. The Murder Detectives. Riveting stuff.0
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On a separate note the Tory rebels I heard - Davis, Baron, Lewis and I think Tyrie were deeply unimpressive and in at least 3 cases insincere.0
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Only 12 Tories rebelling. Perhaps the shared testicle has been given the night off.0
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The temptation to sit back and watch Labour self destruct must be almost irresistible to the Tories with Benn's closing still to come but having been at work all day and having skimmed through the previous thread it seems that we have the bizarre situation that many Labour MPs have put the Government's case better than they have themselves.
This really cannot go on. Either they get rid of the muppet or the sensible sane wing of Labour need to do something else. Really, who wants to be led by that?0 -
~ 50 Labour rebels... enough to get their candidate on the ballot...0
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Its really a pity Labour has given deselection such a bad name. The Conservative party could really do with candidates in some of those seats.felix said:On a separate note the Tory rebels I heard - Davis, Baron, Lewis and I think Tyrie were deeply unimpressive and in at least 3 cases insincere.
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When did David Davis turn into such an idiot?0
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When he first met Shami Chakrabarti?MaxPB said:When did David Davis turn into such an idiot?
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Indeed - one of the results of the long-term Labour weakness in many parts of the south especially is too many Tories of dubious quality in ultra safe seats. To be fair this has long pre-dated the present Labour 'issues'.DavidL said:
Its really a pity Labour has given deselection such a bad name. The Conservative party could really do with candidates in some of those seats.felix said:On a separate note the Tory rebels I heard - Davis, Baron, Lewis and I think Tyrie were deeply unimpressive and in at least 3 cases insincere.
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It is going to come down to Benn. If he is to be the road back from perdition for Labour he needs to win some of the 130 allegedly backing Corbyn around and persuade them otherwise. At the moment Crobyn is winning more than half the PLP which consolidates his position.
This may prove to be the most important speech he ever makes.0 -
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If only 50 Labour votes are FOR, whilst the majority will top 100, Cameron's stupid terrorist comment stopped a LAB majority voting against Corbyn IMHO.0
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Nah, he was alright in the shadow cabinet for a while. Even after he had his election against himself he wasn't such a fool.MarkHopkins said:0 -
That makes sense.williamglenn said:
When he first met Shami Chakrabarti?MaxPB said:When did David Davis turn into such an idiot?
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If so then it's terribly good politics and will further annoy the Cameron detractors so win winTCPoliticalBetting said:If only 50 Labour votes are FOR, whilst the majority will top 100, Cameron's stupid terrorist comment stopped a LAB majority voting against Corbyn IMHO.
Oh and the comment was neither stupid nor untrue.0 -
Who would've thought 10 years ago that David Davis would end up consistently to the Left of Cameron.0
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But who wouldn't get their head turned by that doe-eyed beauty!williamglenn said:
When he first met Shami Chakrabarti?MaxPB said:When did David Davis turn into such an idiot?
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Plunge on Hilary Benn with WH,down to 3-1 fav.Misplaced IMHO.
My guess for Labour MPs voting against 38-42.0 -
True enough. But I'm not sure that those PLP members who vote against because of intimidation, fear for their seats etc will necessarily be more enamoured of Corbyn. Sullen acquiescence is not a great basis for good leadership. Of course, Corbyn may not care about that.DavidL said:It is going to come down to Benn. If he is to be the road back from perdition for Labour he needs to win some of the 130 allegedly backing Corbyn around and persuade them otherwise. At the moment Crobyn is winning more than half the PLP which consolidates his position.
This may prove to be the most important speech he ever makes.
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@AdamBienkov: Andy Burnham tells BBC he won't vote for Syrian air strikes today but may change his mind in the future. I give him a few minutes #syriavote0
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If they can get bullied on this they can get bullied on anything so they no longer count. This is their chance to get their party back but I think they are going to fluff it.Cyclefree said:
True enough. But I'm not sure that those PLP members who vote against because of intimidation, fear for their seats etc will necessarily be more enamoured of Corbyn. Sullen acquiescence is not a great basis for good leadership. Of course, Corbyn may not care about that.DavidL said:It is going to come down to Benn. If he is to be the road back from perdition for Labour he needs to win some of the 130 allegedly backing Corbyn around and persuade them otherwise. At the moment Crobyn is winning more than half the PLP which consolidates his position.
This may prove to be the most important speech he ever makes.0 -
Didn't he say he would vote for it if there was a UN resolution?Scott_P said:@AdamBienkov: Andy Burnham tells BBC he won't vote for Syrian air strikes today but may change his mind in the future. I give him a few minutes #syriavote
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The L/Dems are on board, or so Farron hopes.
Possibly 90± Labour MP's will vote for bombing. Any more and Labour is truly split in half. Less than 40 will be a boost for Jezzabel.0 -
Lynton Crosby was going to be my man of 2015.
Jürgen Klopp now has that accolade.0 -
Any Labour MP who uses a vote on military action as a proxy for parochial internal Labour politics would be (rightly) treated with contempt by even moderate Labour members.DavidL said:
If they can get bullied on this they can get bullied on anything so they no longer count. This is their chance to get their party back but I think they are going to fluff it.Cyclefree said:
True enough. But I'm not sure that those PLP members who vote against because of intimidation, fear for their seats etc will necessarily be more enamoured of Corbyn. Sullen acquiescence is not a great basis for good leadership. Of course, Corbyn may not care about that.DavidL said:It is going to come down to Benn. If he is to be the road back from perdition for Labour he needs to win some of the 130 allegedly backing Corbyn around and persuade them otherwise. At the moment Crobyn is winning more than half the PLP which consolidates his position.
This may prove to be the most important speech he ever makes.0 -
Norman Lamb voting against.0
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Quite. He gets a majority and the Labour party gets tarred with the terrorists' sympathisers' moniker, including those who aren't but aren't man enough to step away from the pile of sh*t that Corbyn, McDonnell, Milne and Livingstone represent.felix said:
If so then it's terribly good politics and will further annoy the Cameron detractors so win winTCPoliticalBetting said:If only 50 Labour votes are FOR, whilst the majority will top 100, Cameron's stupid terrorist comment stopped a LAB majority voting against Corbyn IMHO.
Oh and the comment was neither stupid nor untrue.
Labour members keep saying that Corbyn represents what they want, what they believe in, that he is better than all those Tories like Blair and Brown etc. So they own Corbyn and his sympathies too.0 -
Lol, money for old rope for the bookie.volcanopete said:Plunge on Hilary Benn with WH,down to 3-1 fav.Misplaced IMHO.
My guess for Labour MPs voting against 38-42.0 -
Oh dear Dr Fox! She is a nitwit.foxinsoxuk said:
But who wouldn't get their head turned by that doe-eyed beauty!williamglenn said:
When he first met Shami Chakrabarti?MaxPB said:When did David Davis turn into such an idiot?
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Benn on his feet0
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Really? Cameron has won. There really are other fish to fry and the future of our main opposition party is not insignificant, not at all.Danny565 said:
Anyone who uses a vote on military action as a proxy for parochial internal Labour politics would be (rightly) treated with contempt by even moderate Labour members.DavidL said:
If they can get bullied on this they can get bullied on anything so they no longer count. This is their chance to get their party back but I think they are going to fluff it.Cyclefree said:
True enough. But I'm not sure that those PLP members who vote against because of intimidation, fear for their seats etc will necessarily be more enamoured of Corbyn. Sullen acquiescence is not a great basis for good leadership. Of course, Corbyn may not care about that.DavidL said:It is going to come down to Benn. If he is to be the road back from perdition for Labour he needs to win some of the 130 allegedly backing Corbyn around and persuade them otherwise. At the moment Crobyn is winning more than half the PLP which consolidates his position.
This may prove to be the most important speech he ever makes.0 -
Isn't that just what some of the Corbynista MPs are doing?Danny565 said:
Anyone who uses a vote on military action as a proxy for parochial internal Labour politics would be (rightly) treated with contempt by even moderate Labour members.DavidL said:
If they can get bullied on this they can get bullied on anything so they no longer count. This is their chance to get their party back but I think they are going to fluff it.Cyclefree said:
True enough. But I'm not sure that those PLP members who vote against because of intimidation, fear for their seats etc will necessarily be more enamoured of Corbyn. Sullen acquiescence is not a great basis for good leadership. Of course, Corbyn may not care about that.DavidL said:It is going to come down to Benn. If he is to be the road back from perdition for Labour he needs to win some of the 130 allegedly backing Corbyn around and persuade them otherwise. At the moment Crobyn is winning more than half the PLP which consolidates his position.
This may prove to be the most important speech he ever makes.0 -
Corbyn not in the chamber, but Benn says he is not a terrorist sympathiser0
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@paulwaugh: Labour peer Lord Rooker has really gone for it. (via @guardian liveblog)
https://t.co/hrpfUGPOjs https://t.co/Amcau3EHGd0 -
Worried about the Union David?DavidL said:
If they can get bullied on this they can get bullied on anything so they no longer count. This is their chance to get their party back but I think they are going to fluff it.Cyclefree said:
True enough. But I'm not sure that those PLP members who vote against because of intimidation, fear for their seats etc will necessarily be more enamoured of Corbyn. Sullen acquiescence is not a great basis for good leadership. Of course, Corbyn may not care about that.DavidL said:It is going to come down to Benn. If he is to be the road back from perdition for Labour he needs to win some of the 130 allegedly backing Corbyn around and persuade them otherwise. At the moment Crobyn is winning more than half the PLP which consolidates his position.
This may prove to be the most important speech he ever makes.0 -
And to think you can get 5 on BF!Pulpstar said:
Lol, money for old rope for the bookie.volcanopete said:Plunge on Hilary Benn with WH,down to 3-1 fav.Misplaced IMHO.
My guess for Labour MPs voting against 38-42.0 -
Liverpool won another game? Remarkable enough I suppose but not that extraordinary.TheScreamingEagles said:Lynton Crosby was going to be my man of 2015.
Jürgen Klopp now has that accolade.0 -
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I'm guessing that's your dosh hehTheWhiteRabbit said:
And to think you can get 5 on BF!Pulpstar said:
Lol, money for old rope for the bookie.volcanopete said:Plunge on Hilary Benn with WH,down to 3-1 fav.Misplaced IMHO.
My guess for Labour MPs voting against 38-42.
If you get matched don't forget to lay David Miliband a bit to improve yr effective interest rate 0 -
@faisalislam: Shadow foreign secretary @hilarybennmp up wrapping up for labour... "conditions are met" at that point @jeremycorbyn who disagrees arrives0
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We were one nil down after 40 secs. We're now 6-1 up away at Southampton in the Rumbelows cupDavidL said:
Liverpool won another game? Remarkable enough I suppose but not that extraordinary.TheScreamingEagles said:Lynton Crosby was going to be my man of 2015.
Jürgen Klopp now has that accolade.0 -
Shall I put him down as a maybe on Corbynism?dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/672166395535314944
Jeff Rooker on Corbyn.0 -
Watching Benn argue in favour of motion and Corbyn sitting behind him is surreal.0
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Two Labour members looking at cute kittens/sneezing pandas on a phone while Benn is speaking.0
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Yes. SLAB are already making dodos look quite vivacious. They really don't need the party in Westminster looking as ridiculous as it does in Holyrood. This is too big a burden for Ruth to carry on her own.Eh_ehm_a_eh said:
Worried about the Union David?DavidL said:
If they can get bullied on this they can get bullied on anything so they no longer count. This is their chance to get their party back but I think they are going to fluff it.Cyclefree said:
True enough. But I'm not sure that those PLP members who vote against because of intimidation, fear for their seats etc will necessarily be more enamoured of Corbyn. Sullen acquiescence is not a great basis for good leadership. Of course, Corbyn may not care about that.DavidL said:It is going to come down to Benn. If he is to be the road back from perdition for Labour he needs to win some of the 130 allegedly backing Corbyn around and persuade them otherwise. At the moment Crobyn is winning more than half the PLP which consolidates his position.
This may prove to be the most important speech he ever makes.0 -
He's sitting behind him!Scott_P said:Corbyn not in the chamber, but Benn says he is not a terrorist sympathiser
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@PickardJE: Apparently Corbyn is eating dinner in terrace canteen while Hilary Benn speaks to the House re Syria...0
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Corbyn, Watson, Burnham all behind him...what a sight.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Benn argue in favour of motion and Corbyn sitting behind him is surreal.
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Shadsy goes;
2/9 Lab
10/3 UKIP0 -
Wow!Scott_P said:@paulwaugh: Labour peer Lord Rooker has really gone for it. (via @guardian liveblog)
https://t.co/hrpfUGPOjs https://t.co/Amcau3EHGd
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Really...I didn't know his twin was also an MP?Scott_P said:@PickardJE: Apparently Corbyn is eating dinner in terrace canteen while Hilary Benn speaks to the House re Syria...
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He arrived lateSunil_Prasannan said:He's sitting behind him!
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He's got a twin then.Scott_P said:@PickardJE: Apparently Corbyn is eating dinner in terrace canteen while Hilary Benn speaks to the House re Syria...
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@DPJHodges: Hilary Benn doesn't just look like the leader of the opposition at the moment. He looks like the prime minister.0
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Well thats just standard.Scott_P said:
He arrived lateSunil_Prasannan said:He's sitting behind him!
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Good stuff from Benn0
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Hilary Benn is making the speech of the day (well the ones I've watched anyway)0
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@thequentinletts: Hilary Benn making the speech of his life. Make him Labour leader.0
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Benn better than the PM on the case in favour of bombing.0
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You know what, I might let that run...Pulpstar said:
I'm guessing that's your dosh hehTheWhiteRabbit said:
And to think you can get 5 on BF!Pulpstar said:
Lol, money for old rope for the bookie.volcanopete said:Plunge on Hilary Benn with WH,down to 3-1 fav.Misplaced IMHO.
My guess for Labour MPs voting against 38-42.
If you get matched don't forget to lay David Miliband a bit to improve yr effective interest rate0 -
This is very good from Benn0
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@Tony_McNulty: Whether you agree with him or not, superb speech from Hilary Benn - well thought out, razor sharp and delivered with impeccable courtesy0
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That's way more incendiary than anything Cameron has said. A Labour peer has explicitly compared Corbyn and the Trots to Daesh.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/672166395535314944
Jeff Rooker on Corbyn.
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I don't know why people use the epithet "Trot" when Trotskyites are hated by the Hard Left! Leon himself was murdered on Stalin's orders in Mexico in 1940.williamglenn said:
Wow!Scott_P said:@paulwaugh: Labour peer Lord Rooker has really gone for it. (via @guardian liveblog)
https://t.co/hrpfUGPOjs https://t.co/Amcau3EHGd
And this was a recent leaflet by the Communist Party of Great Britain:
http://www.cpgb-ml.org/index.php?secName=leaflets&subName=display&leafletId=89
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Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears;
I come to bury Caesar, not to praise him.
The evil that men do lives after them;
The good is oft interred with their bones;
So let it be with Caesar.0 -
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Anyone called Hilary Benn a Tory yet?0
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This is the end of Corbyn - Benn has just traduced him by his argumentsWanderer said:This is very good from Benn
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Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum behind Benn look lost.0
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I have to say it's surreal watching Benn putting his case forward (very passionately), whilst his leader sits next to him, who believes the total opposite to Benn.0
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Make this guy leader of the opposition.0
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Why doesn't he just pi$$ off to the Tories ;-)TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone called Hilary Benn a Tory yet?
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Drama on The Apprentice...
(Moving onto the serious matters of the day)0 -
Or perhaps a Howe quote - "The time has come for others to consider their own response to the tragic conflict of loyalties, with which I myself have wrestled for perhaps too long."MarkHopkins said:0 -
Benn lecturing his own side now...kinda of how you expect a leader to do.0
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One has to wonder what is going through Andy Burnham's head, assuming it isn't just empty.0
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@VickiYoung01: "We never have and we never should walk by on the other side of the road" says Benn to his Labour colleagues #syriavote0
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Benn could be PM tonight.0
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You are giving him too much credit.MaxPB said:One has to wonder what is going through Andy Burnham's head, assuming it isn't just empty.
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This is astonishing stuff by Hilary Benn. A full throated leadership pitch.0
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Hillary for POTUS, I mean PM 0
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@DPJHodges: Incredible moment. Hilary Benn destroying Jeremy Corbyn's "mandate" with the moral force of 100 years of Labour history.0
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Benn. Wow.
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Hillary Benn applauded by all sides of the House.0
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Labour need to follow Benn tonight and give a large vote for the motion thereby destroying CorbynMaxPB said:Make this guy leader of the opposition.
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The Labour front bench were seriously dumbstruck by that.0
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Corbyn looks absolutely pissed off.0
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Are we watching Hilary Benn's resignation speech from the front bench..?0
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Clear the benches, no clapping allowed you tory bastards.0
