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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Syria vote: Cameron looks set to win but how many LAB M

SystemSystem Posts: 12,143
edited December 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Syria vote: Cameron looks set to win but how many LAB MPs will back him?

Voting takes place at 10pm and the result should be known within about 16 minutes. Then there’ll be the wait, not too long, for the division lists so we can see who has not followed their parties.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited December 2015
    First!
  • Joe Oliver ‏@joe_oliver 10m10 minutes ago
    Would be a majority of circa 135 - larger than many are saying but based on expecting c.12 Tory rebels meaning Govt get.. 1/2 #SyriaVote

    Joe Oliver ‏@joe_oliver 8m8 minutes ago
    ..c.317 Tory MP (-rebels/Deputy Speaker)+c.6 Lib Dems, 11 Unionists, and c.50 Labour MPs (maybe a few more) voting for #SyriaVote 2/2

    Joe Oliver ‏@joe_oliver 7m7 minutes ago
    Of course could be wildly wrong as 90 minutes or so of debate still to go atmosphere during winding up speeches could be crucial #SyriaVote

    (Oliver notes a couple of Labour "rebels" can't vote.)
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Third like the Tories in Oldham.
  • Hecklers on SKY news outside Westminster
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162
    I had expected the Labour rebels to be around 40 so worse than that. The main point however in terms of politics is that they are in a gigantic mess as there seems to be no strategy to clear the decks and start again. I noted yesterday that they're starting to tank in the polls - but the story has a long way to run and I doubt they'll stay above 30 % soon.
  • Just starting on C4, third and final programme in focus on one murder. The Murder Detectives. Riveting stuff.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162
    On a separate note the Tory rebels I heard - Davis, Baron, Lewis and I think Tyrie were deeply unimpressive and in at least 3 cases insincere.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,306
    Only 12 Tories rebelling. Perhaps the shared testicle has been given the night off.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,751
    edited December 2015
    The temptation to sit back and watch Labour self destruct must be almost irresistible to the Tories with Benn's closing still to come but having been at work all day and having skimmed through the previous thread it seems that we have the bizarre situation that many Labour MPs have put the Government's case better than they have themselves.

    This really cannot go on. Either they get rid of the muppet or the sensible sane wing of Labour need to do something else. Really, who wants to be led by that?
  • ~ 50 Labour rebels... enough to get their candidate on the ballot...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,751
    felix said:

    On a separate note the Tory rebels I heard - Davis, Baron, Lewis and I think Tyrie were deeply unimpressive and in at least 3 cases insincere.

    Its really a pity Labour has given deselection such a bad name. The Conservative party could really do with candidates in some of those seats.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,663
    When did David Davis turn into such an idiot?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    MaxPB said:

    When did David Davis turn into such an idiot?

    When he first met Shami Chakrabarti?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162
    DavidL said:

    felix said:

    On a separate note the Tory rebels I heard - Davis, Baron, Lewis and I think Tyrie were deeply unimpressive and in at least 3 cases insincere.

    Its really a pity Labour has given deselection such a bad name. The Conservative party could really do with candidates in some of those seats.
    Indeed - one of the results of the long-term Labour weakness in many parts of the south especially is too many Tories of dubious quality in ultra safe seats. To be fair this has long pre-dated the present Labour 'issues'.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,751
    It is going to come down to Benn. If he is to be the road back from perdition for Labour he needs to win some of the 130 allegedly backing Corbyn around and persuade them otherwise. At the moment Crobyn is winning more than half the PLP which consolidates his position.

    This may prove to be the most important speech he ever makes.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    MaxPB said:

    When did David Davis turn into such an idiot?


    6 December 2005
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162
    MaxPB said:

    When did David Davis turn into such an idiot?

    When he ' thankfully 'got rogered by cam for the leadership. Been sulking and increasingly barking ever since.
  • If only 50 Labour votes are FOR, whilst the majority will top 100, Cameron's stupid terrorist comment stopped a LAB majority voting against Corbyn IMHO.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,663

    MaxPB said:

    When did David Davis turn into such an idiot?


    6 December 2005
    Nah, he was alright in the shadow cabinet for a while. Even after he had his election against himself he wasn't such a fool.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,751
    MaxPB said:

    When did David Davis turn into such an idiot?

    23rd December 1948.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,663

    MaxPB said:

    When did David Davis turn into such an idiot?

    When he first met Shami Chakrabarti?
    That makes sense.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162

    If only 50 Labour votes are FOR, whilst the majority will top 100, Cameron's stupid terrorist comment stopped a LAB majority voting against Corbyn IMHO.

    If so then it's terribly good politics and will further annoy the Cameron detractors so win win :)

    Oh and the comment was neither stupid nor untrue.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Who would've thought 10 years ago that David Davis would end up consistently to the Left of Cameron.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    MaxPB said:

    When did David Davis turn into such an idiot?

    When he first met Shami Chakrabarti?
    But who wouldn't get their head turned by that doe-eyed beauty!
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Plunge on Hilary Benn with WH,down to 3-1 fav.Misplaced IMHO.
    My guess for Labour MPs voting against 38-42.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,280
    DavidL said:

    It is going to come down to Benn. If he is to be the road back from perdition for Labour he needs to win some of the 130 allegedly backing Corbyn around and persuade them otherwise. At the moment Crobyn is winning more than half the PLP which consolidates his position.

    This may prove to be the most important speech he ever makes.

    True enough. But I'm not sure that those PLP members who vote against because of intimidation, fear for their seats etc will necessarily be more enamoured of Corbyn. Sullen acquiescence is not a great basis for good leadership. Of course, Corbyn may not care about that.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @AdamBienkov: Andy Burnham tells BBC he won't vote for Syrian air strikes today but may change his mind in the future. I give him a few minutes #syriavote
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,663
    Danny565 said:

    Who would've thought 10 years ago that David Davis would end up consistently to the Left of Cameron.

    Mad.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,751
    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    It is going to come down to Benn. If he is to be the road back from perdition for Labour he needs to win some of the 130 allegedly backing Corbyn around and persuade them otherwise. At the moment Crobyn is winning more than half the PLP which consolidates his position.

    This may prove to be the most important speech he ever makes.

    True enough. But I'm not sure that those PLP members who vote against because of intimidation, fear for their seats etc will necessarily be more enamoured of Corbyn. Sullen acquiescence is not a great basis for good leadership. Of course, Corbyn may not care about that.

    If they can get bullied on this they can get bullied on anything so they no longer count. This is their chance to get their party back but I think they are going to fluff it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    Scott_P said:

    @AdamBienkov: Andy Burnham tells BBC he won't vote for Syrian air strikes today but may change his mind in the future. I give him a few minutes #syriavote

    Didn't he say he would vote for it if there was a UN resolution?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    The L/Dems are on board, or so Farron hopes.
    Possibly 90± Labour MP's will vote for bombing. Any more and Labour is truly split in half. Less than 40 will be a boost for Jezzabel.
  • Lynton Crosby was going to be my man of 2015.

    Jürgen Klopp now has that accolade.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited December 2015
    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    It is going to come down to Benn. If he is to be the road back from perdition for Labour he needs to win some of the 130 allegedly backing Corbyn around and persuade them otherwise. At the moment Crobyn is winning more than half the PLP which consolidates his position.

    This may prove to be the most important speech he ever makes.

    True enough. But I'm not sure that those PLP members who vote against because of intimidation, fear for their seats etc will necessarily be more enamoured of Corbyn. Sullen acquiescence is not a great basis for good leadership. Of course, Corbyn may not care about that.

    If they can get bullied on this they can get bullied on anything so they no longer count. This is their chance to get their party back but I think they are going to fluff it.
    Any Labour MP who uses a vote on military action as a proxy for parochial internal Labour politics would be (rightly) treated with contempt by even moderate Labour members.
  • Norman Lamb voting against.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,280
    felix said:

    If only 50 Labour votes are FOR, whilst the majority will top 100, Cameron's stupid terrorist comment stopped a LAB majority voting against Corbyn IMHO.

    If so then it's terribly good politics and will further annoy the Cameron detractors so win win :)

    Oh and the comment was neither stupid nor untrue.
    Quite. He gets a majority and the Labour party gets tarred with the terrorists' sympathisers' moniker, including those who aren't but aren't man enough to step away from the pile of sh*t that Corbyn, McDonnell, Milne and Livingstone represent.

    Labour members keep saying that Corbyn represents what they want, what they believe in, that he is better than all those Tories like Blair and Brown etc. So they own Corbyn and his sympathies too.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162
    MikeK said:

    The L/Dems are on board, or so Farron hopes.
    Possibly 90± Labour MP's will vote for bombing. Any more and Labour is truly split in half. Less than 40 will be a boost for Jezzabel.

    The 90+ figure for Labour seems wildly optimistic imho
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058

    Plunge on Hilary Benn with WH,down to 3-1 fav.Misplaced IMHO.
    My guess for Labour MPs voting against 38-42.

    Lol, money for old rope for the bookie.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,280

    MaxPB said:

    When did David Davis turn into such an idiot?

    When he first met Shami Chakrabarti?
    But who wouldn't get their head turned by that doe-eyed beauty!
    Oh dear Dr Fox! She is a nitwit.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Benn on his feet
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,751
    Danny565 said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    It is going to come down to Benn. If he is to be the road back from perdition for Labour he needs to win some of the 130 allegedly backing Corbyn around and persuade them otherwise. At the moment Crobyn is winning more than half the PLP which consolidates his position.

    This may prove to be the most important speech he ever makes.

    True enough. But I'm not sure that those PLP members who vote against because of intimidation, fear for their seats etc will necessarily be more enamoured of Corbyn. Sullen acquiescence is not a great basis for good leadership. Of course, Corbyn may not care about that.

    If they can get bullied on this they can get bullied on anything so they no longer count. This is their chance to get their party back but I think they are going to fluff it.
    Anyone who uses a vote on military action as a proxy for parochial internal Labour politics would be (rightly) treated with contempt by even moderate Labour members.
    Really? Cameron has won. There really are other fish to fry and the future of our main opposition party is not insignificant, not at all.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,280
    Danny565 said:

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    It is going to come down to Benn. If he is to be the road back from perdition for Labour he needs to win some of the 130 allegedly backing Corbyn around and persuade them otherwise. At the moment Crobyn is winning more than half the PLP which consolidates his position.

    This may prove to be the most important speech he ever makes.

    True enough. But I'm not sure that those PLP members who vote against because of intimidation, fear for their seats etc will necessarily be more enamoured of Corbyn. Sullen acquiescence is not a great basis for good leadership. Of course, Corbyn may not care about that.

    If they can get bullied on this they can get bullied on anything so they no longer count. This is their chance to get their party back but I think they are going to fluff it.
    Anyone who uses a vote on military action as a proxy for parochial internal Labour politics would be (rightly) treated with contempt by even moderate Labour members.
    Isn't that just what some of the Corbynista MPs are doing?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Corbyn not in the chamber, but Benn says he is not a terrorist sympathiser
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: Labour peer Lord Rooker has really gone for it. (via @guardian liveblog)
    https://t.co/hrpfUGPOjs https://t.co/Amcau3EHGd
  • DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    It is going to come down to Benn. If he is to be the road back from perdition for Labour he needs to win some of the 130 allegedly backing Corbyn around and persuade them otherwise. At the moment Crobyn is winning more than half the PLP which consolidates his position.

    This may prove to be the most important speech he ever makes.

    True enough. But I'm not sure that those PLP members who vote against because of intimidation, fear for their seats etc will necessarily be more enamoured of Corbyn. Sullen acquiescence is not a great basis for good leadership. Of course, Corbyn may not care about that.

    If they can get bullied on this they can get bullied on anything so they no longer count. This is their chance to get their party back but I think they are going to fluff it.
    Worried about the Union David?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Plunge on Hilary Benn with WH,down to 3-1 fav.Misplaced IMHO.
    My guess for Labour MPs voting against 38-42.

    Lol, money for old rope for the bookie.
    And to think you can get 5 on BF!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,751

    Lynton Crosby was going to be my man of 2015.

    Jürgen Klopp now has that accolade.

    Liverpool won another game? Remarkable enough I suppose but not that extraordinary.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162
    Scott_P said:

    Corbyn not in the chamber, but Benn says he is not a terrorist sympathiser

    Then he is either monumentally stupid or a liar.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    edited December 2015

    Pulpstar said:

    Plunge on Hilary Benn with WH,down to 3-1 fav.Misplaced IMHO.
    My guess for Labour MPs voting against 38-42.

    Lol, money for old rope for the bookie.
    And to think you can get 5 on BF!
    I'm guessing that's your dosh heh

    If you get matched don't forget to lay David Miliband a bit to improve yr effective interest rate :)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @faisalislam: Shadow foreign secretary @hilarybennmp up wrapping up for labour... "conditions are met" at that point @jeremycorbyn who disagrees arrives
  • DavidL said:

    Lynton Crosby was going to be my man of 2015.

    Jürgen Klopp now has that accolade.

    Liverpool won another game? Remarkable enough I suppose but not that extraordinary.
    We were one nil down after 40 secs. We're now 6-1 up away at Southampton in the Rumbelows cup
  • Watching Benn argue in favour of motion and Corbyn sitting behind him is surreal.
  • dr_spyn said:
    Shall I put him down as a maybe on Corbynism?
  • Two Labour members looking at cute kittens/sneezing pandas on a phone while Benn is speaking.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,751

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    It is going to come down to Benn. If he is to be the road back from perdition for Labour he needs to win some of the 130 allegedly backing Corbyn around and persuade them otherwise. At the moment Crobyn is winning more than half the PLP which consolidates his position.

    This may prove to be the most important speech he ever makes.

    True enough. But I'm not sure that those PLP members who vote against because of intimidation, fear for their seats etc will necessarily be more enamoured of Corbyn. Sullen acquiescence is not a great basis for good leadership. Of course, Corbyn may not care about that.

    If they can get bullied on this they can get bullied on anything so they no longer count. This is their chance to get their party back but I think they are going to fluff it.
    Worried about the Union David?
    Yes. SLAB are already making dodos look quite vivacious. They really don't need the party in Westminster looking as ridiculous as it does in Holyrood. This is too big a burden for Ruth to carry on her own.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712
    edited December 2015
    Scott_P said:

    Corbyn not in the chamber, but Benn says he is not a terrorist sympathiser

    He's sitting behind him!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PickardJE: Apparently Corbyn is eating dinner in terrace canteen while Hilary Benn speaks to the House re Syria...
  • Watching Benn argue in favour of motion and Corbyn sitting behind him is surreal.

    Corbyn, Watson, Burnham all behind him...what a sight.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Shadsy goes;

    2/9 Lab
    10/3 UKIP
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    edited December 2015
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Labour peer Lord Rooker has really gone for it. (via @guardian liveblog)
    https://t.co/hrpfUGPOjs https://t.co/Amcau3EHGd

    Wow!

    image
  • Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Apparently Corbyn is eating dinner in terrace canteen while Hilary Benn speaks to the House re Syria...

    Really...I didn't know his twin was also an MP?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    He's sitting behind him!

    He arrived late
  • Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Apparently Corbyn is eating dinner in terrace canteen while Hilary Benn speaks to the House re Syria...

    He's got a twin then.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: Hilary Benn doesn't just look like the leader of the opposition at the moment. He looks like the prime minister.
  • Scott_P said:

    He's sitting behind him!

    He arrived late
    Well thats just standard.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    Good stuff from Benn
  • Hilary Benn is making the speech of the day (well the ones I've watched anyway)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @thequentinletts: Hilary Benn making the speech of his life. Make him Labour leader.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,663
    Benn better than the PM on the case in favour of bombing.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Plunge on Hilary Benn with WH,down to 3-1 fav.Misplaced IMHO.
    My guess for Labour MPs voting against 38-42.

    Lol, money for old rope for the bookie.
    And to think you can get 5 on BF!
    I'm guessing that's your dosh heh

    If you get matched don't forget to lay David Miliband a bit to improve yr effective interest rate :)
    You know what, I might let that run...
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    This is very good from Benn
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Tony_McNulty: Whether you agree with him or not, superb speech from Hilary Benn - well thought out, razor sharp and delivered with impeccable courtesy
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,280
    dr_spyn said:
    That's way more incendiary than anything Cameron has said. A Labour peer has explicitly compared Corbyn and the Trots to Daesh.

  • Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Labour peer Lord Rooker has really gone for it. (via @guardian liveblog)
    https://t.co/hrpfUGPOjs https://t.co/Amcau3EHGd

    Wow!

    image
    I don't know why people use the epithet "Trot" when Trotskyites are hated by the Hard Left! Leon himself was murdered on Stalin's orders in Mexico in 1940.
    And this was a recent leaflet by the Communist Party of Great Britain:

    http://www.cpgb-ml.org/index.php?secName=leaflets&subName=display&leafletId=89

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears;
    I come to bury Caesar, not to praise him.
    The evil that men do lives after them;
    The good is oft interred with their bones;
    So let it be with Caesar.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Wanderer said:

    This is very good from Benn


    Has he called Corbyn and Milne "honourable men" yet?

  • Anyone called Hilary Benn a Tory yet?
  • Wanderer said:

    This is very good from Benn

    This is the end of Corbyn - Benn has just traduced him by his arguments
  • Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum behind Benn look lost.
  • I have to say it's surreal watching Benn putting his case forward (very passionately), whilst his leader sits next to him, who believes the total opposite to Benn.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,663
    Make this guy leader of the opposition.
  • Anyone called Hilary Benn a Tory yet?

    Why doesn't he just pi$$ off to the Tories ;-)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited December 2015
    Drama on The Apprentice...

    (Moving onto the serious matters of the day)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436

    Wanderer said:

    This is very good from Benn

    Has he called Corbyn and Milne "honourable men" yet?

    Or perhaps a Howe quote - "The time has come for others to consider their own response to the tragic conflict of loyalties, with which I myself have wrestled for perhaps too long."
  • Benn lecturing his own side now...kinda of how you expect a leader to do.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,663
    One has to wonder what is going through Andy Burnham's head, assuming it isn't just empty.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @VickiYoung01: "We never have and we never should walk by on the other side of the road" says Benn to his Labour colleagues #syriavote
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,663
    Benn could be PM tonight.
  • MaxPB said:

    One has to wonder what is going through Andy Burnham's head, assuming it isn't just empty.

    You are giving him too much credit.
  • This is astonishing stuff by Hilary Benn. A full throated leadership pitch.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: Incredible moment. Hilary Benn destroying Jeremy Corbyn's "mandate" with the moral force of 100 years of Labour history.
  • Hillary for POTUS, I mean PM :)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,602
    Benn. Wow.

  • Hillary Benn applauded by all sides of the House.
  • MaxPB said:

    Make this guy leader of the opposition.

    Labour need to follow Benn tonight and give a large vote for the motion thereby destroying Corbyn
  • The Labour front bench were seriously dumbstruck by that.
  • Corbyn looks absolutely pissed off.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,455
    Are we watching Hilary Benn's resignation speech from the front bench..?
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Jonathan said:

    Benn. Wow.

    It's a magnificent speech
  • Clear the benches, no clapping allowed you tory bastards.
This discussion has been closed.