politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Syria vote: Cameron looks set to win but how many LAB MPs will back him?
Voting takes place at 10pm and the result should be known within about 16 minutes. Then there’ll be the wait, not too long, for the division lists so we can see who has not followed their parties.
Joe Oliver @joe_oliver 10m10 minutes ago Would be a majority of circa 135 - larger than many are saying but based on expecting c.12 Tory rebels meaning Govt get.. 1/2 #SyriaVote
Joe Oliver @joe_oliver 8m8 minutes ago ..c.317 Tory MP (-rebels/Deputy Speaker)+c.6 Lib Dems, 11 Unionists, and c.50 Labour MPs (maybe a few more) voting for #SyriaVote 2/2
Joe Oliver @joe_oliver 7m7 minutes ago Of course could be wildly wrong as 90 minutes or so of debate still to go atmosphere during winding up speeches could be crucial #SyriaVote
(Oliver notes a couple of Labour "rebels" can't vote.)
I had expected the Labour rebels to be around 40 so worse than that. The main point however in terms of politics is that they are in a gigantic mess as there seems to be no strategy to clear the decks and start again. I noted yesterday that they're starting to tank in the polls - but the story has a long way to run and I doubt they'll stay above 30 % soon.
The temptation to sit back and watch Labour self destruct must be almost irresistible to the Tories with Benn's closing still to come but having been at work all day and having skimmed through the previous thread it seems that we have the bizarre situation that many Labour MPs have put the Government's case better than they have themselves.
This really cannot go on. Either they get rid of the muppet or the sensible sane wing of Labour need to do something else. Really, who wants to be led by that?
On a separate note the Tory rebels I heard - Davis, Baron, Lewis and I think Tyrie were deeply unimpressive and in at least 3 cases insincere.
Its really a pity Labour has given deselection such a bad name. The Conservative party could really do with candidates in some of those seats.
Indeed - one of the results of the long-term Labour weakness in many parts of the south especially is too many Tories of dubious quality in ultra safe seats. To be fair this has long pre-dated the present Labour 'issues'.
It is going to come down to Benn. If he is to be the road back from perdition for Labour he needs to win some of the 130 allegedly backing Corbyn around and persuade them otherwise. At the moment Crobyn is winning more than half the PLP which consolidates his position.
This may prove to be the most important speech he ever makes.
If only 50 Labour votes are FOR, whilst the majority will top 100, Cameron's stupid terrorist comment stopped a LAB majority voting against Corbyn IMHO.
If only 50 Labour votes are FOR, whilst the majority will top 100, Cameron's stupid terrorist comment stopped a LAB majority voting against Corbyn IMHO.
If so then it's terribly good politics and will further annoy the Cameron detractors so win win
It is going to come down to Benn. If he is to be the road back from perdition for Labour he needs to win some of the 130 allegedly backing Corbyn around and persuade them otherwise. At the moment Crobyn is winning more than half the PLP which consolidates his position.
This may prove to be the most important speech he ever makes.
True enough. But I'm not sure that those PLP members who vote against because of intimidation, fear for their seats etc will necessarily be more enamoured of Corbyn. Sullen acquiescence is not a great basis for good leadership. Of course, Corbyn may not care about that.
@AdamBienkov: Andy Burnham tells BBC he won't vote for Syrian air strikes today but may change his mind in the future. I give him a few minutes #syriavote
It is going to come down to Benn. If he is to be the road back from perdition for Labour he needs to win some of the 130 allegedly backing Corbyn around and persuade them otherwise. At the moment Crobyn is winning more than half the PLP which consolidates his position.
This may prove to be the most important speech he ever makes.
True enough. But I'm not sure that those PLP members who vote against because of intimidation, fear for their seats etc will necessarily be more enamoured of Corbyn. Sullen acquiescence is not a great basis for good leadership. Of course, Corbyn may not care about that.
If they can get bullied on this they can get bullied on anything so they no longer count. This is their chance to get their party back but I think they are going to fluff it.
@AdamBienkov: Andy Burnham tells BBC he won't vote for Syrian air strikes today but may change his mind in the future. I give him a few minutes #syriavote
Didn't he say he would vote for it if there was a UN resolution?
The L/Dems are on board, or so Farron hopes. Possibly 90± Labour MP's will vote for bombing. Any more and Labour is truly split in half. Less than 40 will be a boost for Jezzabel.
It is going to come down to Benn. If he is to be the road back from perdition for Labour he needs to win some of the 130 allegedly backing Corbyn around and persuade them otherwise. At the moment Crobyn is winning more than half the PLP which consolidates his position.
This may prove to be the most important speech he ever makes.
True enough. But I'm not sure that those PLP members who vote against because of intimidation, fear for their seats etc will necessarily be more enamoured of Corbyn. Sullen acquiescence is not a great basis for good leadership. Of course, Corbyn may not care about that.
If they can get bullied on this they can get bullied on anything so they no longer count. This is their chance to get their party back but I think they are going to fluff it.
Any Labour MP who uses a vote on military action as a proxy for parochial internal Labour politics would be (rightly) treated with contempt by even moderate Labour members.
If only 50 Labour votes are FOR, whilst the majority will top 100, Cameron's stupid terrorist comment stopped a LAB majority voting against Corbyn IMHO.
If so then it's terribly good politics and will further annoy the Cameron detractors so win win
Oh and the comment was neither stupid nor untrue.
Quite. He gets a majority and the Labour party gets tarred with the terrorists' sympathisers' moniker, including those who aren't but aren't man enough to step away from the pile of sh*t that Corbyn, McDonnell, Milne and Livingstone represent.
Labour members keep saying that Corbyn represents what they want, what they believe in, that he is better than all those Tories like Blair and Brown etc. So they own Corbyn and his sympathies too.
The L/Dems are on board, or so Farron hopes. Possibly 90± Labour MP's will vote for bombing. Any more and Labour is truly split in half. Less than 40 will be a boost for Jezzabel.
The 90+ figure for Labour seems wildly optimistic imho
It is going to come down to Benn. If he is to be the road back from perdition for Labour he needs to win some of the 130 allegedly backing Corbyn around and persuade them otherwise. At the moment Crobyn is winning more than half the PLP which consolidates his position.
This may prove to be the most important speech he ever makes.
True enough. But I'm not sure that those PLP members who vote against because of intimidation, fear for their seats etc will necessarily be more enamoured of Corbyn. Sullen acquiescence is not a great basis for good leadership. Of course, Corbyn may not care about that.
If they can get bullied on this they can get bullied on anything so they no longer count. This is their chance to get their party back but I think they are going to fluff it.
Anyone who uses a vote on military action as a proxy for parochial internal Labour politics would be (rightly) treated with contempt by even moderate Labour members.
Really? Cameron has won. There really are other fish to fry and the future of our main opposition party is not insignificant, not at all.
It is going to come down to Benn. If he is to be the road back from perdition for Labour he needs to win some of the 130 allegedly backing Corbyn around and persuade them otherwise. At the moment Crobyn is winning more than half the PLP which consolidates his position.
This may prove to be the most important speech he ever makes.
True enough. But I'm not sure that those PLP members who vote against because of intimidation, fear for their seats etc will necessarily be more enamoured of Corbyn. Sullen acquiescence is not a great basis for good leadership. Of course, Corbyn may not care about that.
If they can get bullied on this they can get bullied on anything so they no longer count. This is their chance to get their party back but I think they are going to fluff it.
Anyone who uses a vote on military action as a proxy for parochial internal Labour politics would be (rightly) treated with contempt by even moderate Labour members.
Isn't that just what some of the Corbynista MPs are doing?
It is going to come down to Benn. If he is to be the road back from perdition for Labour he needs to win some of the 130 allegedly backing Corbyn around and persuade them otherwise. At the moment Crobyn is winning more than half the PLP which consolidates his position.
This may prove to be the most important speech he ever makes.
True enough. But I'm not sure that those PLP members who vote against because of intimidation, fear for their seats etc will necessarily be more enamoured of Corbyn. Sullen acquiescence is not a great basis for good leadership. Of course, Corbyn may not care about that.
If they can get bullied on this they can get bullied on anything so they no longer count. This is their chance to get their party back but I think they are going to fluff it.
@faisalislam: Shadow foreign secretary @hilarybennmp up wrapping up for labour... "conditions are met" at that point @jeremycorbyn who disagrees arrives
It is going to come down to Benn. If he is to be the road back from perdition for Labour he needs to win some of the 130 allegedly backing Corbyn around and persuade them otherwise. At the moment Crobyn is winning more than half the PLP which consolidates his position.
This may prove to be the most important speech he ever makes.
True enough. But I'm not sure that those PLP members who vote against because of intimidation, fear for their seats etc will necessarily be more enamoured of Corbyn. Sullen acquiescence is not a great basis for good leadership. Of course, Corbyn may not care about that.
If they can get bullied on this they can get bullied on anything so they no longer count. This is their chance to get their party back but I think they are going to fluff it.
Worried about the Union David?
Yes. SLAB are already making dodos look quite vivacious. They really don't need the party in Westminster looking as ridiculous as it does in Holyrood. This is too big a burden for Ruth to carry on her own.
@Tony_McNulty: Whether you agree with him or not, superb speech from Hilary Benn - well thought out, razor sharp and delivered with impeccable courtesy
I don't know why people use the epithet "Trot" when Trotskyites are hated by the Hard Left! Leon himself was murdered on Stalin's orders in Mexico in 1940. And this was a recent leaflet by the Communist Party of Great Britain:
Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears; I come to bury Caesar, not to praise him. The evil that men do lives after them; The good is oft interred with their bones; So let it be with Caesar.
I have to say it's surreal watching Benn putting his case forward (very passionately), whilst his leader sits next to him, who believes the total opposite to Benn.
Has he called Corbyn and Milne "honourable men" yet?
Or perhaps a Howe quote - "The time has come for others to consider their own response to the tragic conflict of loyalties, with which I myself have wrestled for perhaps too long."
Comments
Would be a majority of circa 135 - larger than many are saying but based on expecting c.12 Tory rebels meaning Govt get.. 1/2 #SyriaVote
Joe Oliver @joe_oliver 8m8 minutes ago
..c.317 Tory MP (-rebels/Deputy Speaker)+c.6 Lib Dems, 11 Unionists, and c.50 Labour MPs (maybe a few more) voting for #SyriaVote 2/2
Joe Oliver @joe_oliver 7m7 minutes ago
Of course could be wildly wrong as 90 minutes or so of debate still to go atmosphere during winding up speeches could be crucial #SyriaVote
(Oliver notes a couple of Labour "rebels" can't vote.)
This really cannot go on. Either they get rid of the muppet or the sensible sane wing of Labour need to do something else. Really, who wants to be led by that?
This may prove to be the most important speech he ever makes.
6 December 2005
Oh and the comment was neither stupid nor untrue.
My guess for Labour MPs voting against 38-42.
Possibly 90± Labour MP's will vote for bombing. Any more and Labour is truly split in half. Less than 40 will be a boost for Jezzabel.
Jürgen Klopp now has that accolade.
Labour members keep saying that Corbyn represents what they want, what they believe in, that he is better than all those Tories like Blair and Brown etc. So they own Corbyn and his sympathies too.
https://t.co/hrpfUGPOjs https://t.co/Amcau3EHGd
Jeff Rooker on Corbyn.
If you get matched don't forget to lay David Miliband a bit to improve yr effective interest rate
2/9 Lab
10/3 UKIP
And this was a recent leaflet by the Communist Party of Great Britain:
http://www.cpgb-ml.org/index.php?secName=leaflets&subName=display&leafletId=89
I come to bury Caesar, not to praise him.
The evil that men do lives after them;
The good is oft interred with their bones;
So let it be with Caesar.
Has he called Corbyn and Milne "honourable men" yet?
(Moving onto the serious matters of the day)