politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn slumps to new YouGov leader ratings low while latest

Tim_B said:

oxfordsimon said:

Tim_B said:

Plato_Says said:

Sky have been marvellous in coverage here - no matter what time of day - they're live and on the spot.

SandraM said:

Scott_P said:

In other news, while Sky were live in Paris this morning broadcasting explosions and gunfire, the BBC were showing the status of London tube services, followed by the local weather...

You forgot to mention the BBC interview with Duran Duran.

I have CNN, BBC World News and Fox News on split screen. Occasionally Fox will go to 'our sister network' Sky News for a report.

I have been sticking with France24 throughout

I don't have that option.

They livestream on Youtube

https://www.youtube.com/user/france24english

@benglaze: EXCL: Ken Livingstone says Kevan Jones, who has battled depression, is "disturbed" and "should see his GP": https://t.co/cG5gE9Hizz

Scott_P said:

@benglaze: EXCL: Ken Livingstone says Kevan Jones, who has battled depression, is "disturbed" and "should see his GP": https://t.co/cG5gE9Hizz

Welcome to the new brand of politics.

Floater said:

Roger said:

If it wasn't that people have pitifully short memories REMAIN would be nailed on certainties.
I'm sure there's never been a time when European solidarity has been as solid.

For those on the 'remain' side it's time to consolidate.

It must be clear to everyone how vital European solidarity is now we have this common enemy

What solidarity? I will start with one rather large European nation and supposedly a key ally of France.

Germany.

The historical context is that the present European arrangements were supposed to prevent France and Germany from going to war again. They have had their tiffs but it seems unlikely that the EU is now needed to serve that purpose. I would suggest that there is consequently diminishing common ground between France and Germany, immigration being the most serious. Who knows where that will take us?

@thinkdefence: Meanwhile, at the Labour Party Defence Review HQ https://t.co/JzlTUKOF2x

Casino_Royale said:

flightpath01 said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

ThomasNashe said:

CD13 said:

An interesting dilemma for Labour ... do they oppose Jezza when he talks about security and tried to lose even the most committed supporter, or do they shout him down and look like a divided party? I suspect the latter is less damaging.

The best option may be a shoot to kill policy on Jezza.

...

..

I'm not sure the parliamentary party care too much if the Labour membership see such a move as contempt for democracy. They mass nominated Gordon Brown to the exclusion of all others, and imposed him as PM on the rest of us without any vote whatsoever.

The key thing is excluding him from the ballot paper.

Could Corbyn find 35 MPs to nominate him again, or just be stuck at his fan club of 20-25?

Dear oh dear. He will not need nominating. He is the incumbent.
But let us suppose the parliamentary party did find some subterfuge to remove him, what effect will that have on the membership? They will go ape. Labour are split. Who would replace Corbyn? The normal factionalism within Labour would only return. Labour dug themselves a big hole and then fell in it.

Corbyn needs to stay until 2020 because the Stop the War Coalition' need him there so they can deselect their opponents in the PLP and get their own people in. Corbyn was not elected by the PLP. Him being leader is none of their business. If the PLP is down to 200 the STWC do not care. They have a golden opportunity to control the labour party.

Is the incumbent leader automatically renominated, or does it require 35 MPs to put their names to a form?

It seems pretty clear to me by the wording and the logic behind it that the incumbent does not need to get nominations, he is the leader. If someone is successful in mounting a challenge against the incumbent then good luck to all parties concerned, but the leader does not have to stand down just because 35 MPs ask him to.
Of course it would be the best thing all round for Labour if this were not true because Corbyn would not get 35 nominations, not even 25 probably. However even this would leave Labour riven with splits.
Plus of course even though Corbyn has set a pretty low bar for any future leader whoever it is, when you look at the likely prospects he/she is going to be pretty useless. All of a sudden Hilary Benn is touted as a political genius instead of a regulation by the book loopy lefty.

I wonder how Jezza's hug a Jahadi routine would have gone down this morning in Paris?

Come out. Please come out. There is no need for violence. We can have a nice chat. I have got some freshly baked croissants. I know your angry, but maybe we can sit down and discuss our differences. There is a super cafe around the corner, they do a lovely soya latte...

dr_spyn said:

Livingstone showing himself to be a prize piece of human refuse.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ken-livingstone-blasts-labour-rival-6853409

Good of the Mirror to remind its readers about Livingstone's version of kinder, gentler politics.

I didn't think it possible that my opinion of him could sink any lower, but I was wrong ...

As Tissue Price put it yesterday:

"I can't go on like this."
"That's what you think."

Scott_P said:

@thinkdefence: Meanwhile, at the Labour Party Defence Review HQ https://t.co/JzlTUKOF2x

Arf - Almost as laughable as appointing Ken Livingstone as co-chair Labour’s defence review.

Casino_Royale said:

Off topic, I think this is crazy:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34851718

There's no way replacement nuclear power will be in place for 2025. We're heading for brownouts and a much greater dependency on the import of gas, with all the volality that implies.

We import the vast bulk of our coal, anyway. (UK production was just 11.5m tonnes in 2014.) So, we're not really any more dependent on imports.

The prices of natural gas and coal are highly correlated - because they are both just stores of energy and are quite fungible.

However, natural gas currently trades at a discount to coal, and that is likely to continue for some time, because there is a lot of new LNG capacity coming on stream around the world - Gorgan, Wheatstone, Gladstone, Mozambique, plus the US and (possibly) Canada. This will likely double the amount of LNG available to the UK in the next decade, and will also make the political make-up of potential vendors much more stable.

Furthermore, for power station operators, natural gas is much more attractive than coal generally: capital and maintenance costs are lower, thermal efficiencies are higher, and power stations can be turned on and off quickly. By comparison, a coal plant take a long time to get up to full power, and can't be easily turned fully on or off. (Indeed, coal plants are typically operating at capacity or not at all. This means they are ill-suited to run as peaking power, which is a problem when they are more expensive on a MWh basis than natural gas.)

We are not likely to have brown outs, because you can order an Open Cycle Gas Turbine from any one of a number of vendors, and get delivery next July or August. (A Combined Cycle Gas Turbine is a significantly more expensive proposition, requires a lot more space - and planning - and the lead times from Siemens, or GE are a lot longer.)

Scott_P said:

@andrewspoooner: Jeremy Corbyn clarifies that the real danger comes from the British police and not ISIS. https://t.co/RgneCSwxjX

This hole he is digging must be so deep now, he might be reaching the earth's core.

Slackbladder said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

flightpath01 said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

ThomasNashe said:

CD13 said:

An interesting dilemma for Labour ... do they oppose Jezza when he talks about security and tried to lose even the most committed supporter, or do they shout him down and look like a divided party? I suspect the latter is less damaging.

The best option may be a shoot to kill policy on Jezza.

It seems to me that there was a certain degree of coordination in yesterday's questions designed to undermine Jezza. I think they're probably waiting for a trigger event to attempt a coup. Could be the Syria vote, or losing Oldham, but after yesterday I do think the end is likely to come quite soon. Certainly hope so.

I'm not sure the parliamentary party care too much if the Labour membership see such a move as contempt for democracy. They mass nominated Gordon Brown to the exclusion of all others, and imposed him as PM on the rest of us without any vote whatsoever.

The key thing is excluding him from the ballot paper.

Could Corbyn find 35 MPs to nominate him again, or just be stuck at his fan club of 20-25?

Dear oh dear. He will not need nominating. He is the incumbent.
But let us suppose the parliamentary party did find some subterfuge to remove him, what effect will that have on the membership? They will go ape. Labour are split. Who would replace Corbyn? The normal factionalism within Labour would only return. Labour dug themselves a big hole and then fell in it.

Corbyn needs to stay until 2020 because the Stop the War Coalition' need him there so they can deselect their opponents in the PLP and get their own people in. Corbyn was not elected by the PLP. Him being leader is none of their business. If the PLP is down to 200 the STWC do not care. They have a golden opportunity to control the labour party.

Is the incumbent leader automatically renominated, or does it require 35 MPs to put their names to a form?

That is apparently unclear from the wording, hence my point 1. It hasn't mattered previously.

Think this is an issue you can go around in circles over.

If he's on the ballot, he'll probably win again.
If he's not, then that'll split the party.

Removing Corbyn if he doesn't want to go is not going to be an easy thing at all.

So Jihadi Jez will be everyone's favourite Aunt Sally for ever!! What fun!

Scott_P said:

@JGForsyth: Think patience of moderate Labour MPs on the front bench is going to snap very soon, Ken is adding personal unpleasantness to loony leftery

What are they going to do? Scrunch up sheets of paper and hurl them angrily into the wastepaper basket?

Police break down the door of a Catholic church looking for a bunch of radical islamists. What's wrong with this picture?

Also Saint-Denis has an "office de tourisme". Must be run by optimists.

Tim_B said:

Police break down the door of a Catholic church looking for a bunch of radical islamists. What's wrong with this picture?

Also Saint-Denis has an "office de tourisme". Must be run by optimists.

To be fair Saint-Denis does get a lot of tourists. Is the venue for a lot of French national football and rugby team matches.

ReggieCide said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MP_SE said:

Floater said:

Roger said:

If it wasn't that people have pitifully short memories REMAIN would be nailed on certainties.
I'm sure there's never been a time when European solidarity has been as solid.

For those on the 'remain' side it's time to consolidate.

It must be clear to everyone how vital European solidarity is now we have this common enemy

What solidarity? I will start with one rather large European nation and supposedly a key ally of France.

Germany.

I think people are confusing EU solidarity with normal human emotions such as compassion which is something felt globally. The Little European Unioner mentality can be witnessed here this morning.

The BOOers were saying how these attacks would help Leave. Just pointing out (and borne out in this poll) that many feel the opposite.

I agree. Safety in numbers?

Yougov have another poll (pre-attack) with Leave 41% to Remain 39%

It was taken on 28th - 29th October

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/6oror7wfpr/YG-Trackers-Europe-Referendum-171115.pdf

AlastairMeeks said:

Scott_P said:

@JGForsyth: Think patience of moderate Labour MPs on the front bench is going to snap very soon, Ken is adding personal unpleasantness to loony leftery

What are they going to do? Scrunch up sheets of paper and hurl them angrily into the wastepaper basket?

Look Labour removed three time election winner Blair, surely they'll do the same to a loser like Corbyn?

Sean T nailed it when he said that images of Jonestown came to mind, following the election of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour Leader.

oxfordsimon said:

Scott_P said:

TGOHF said:

So if the Nats white paper was known to be fibs by the writers, will the LDs be launching 56 suits against them as this clearly swayed the GE results in Scotland ?

@RuthDavidsonMSP: The SNP's case for independence was a fraud - so says the guy who drafted the white paper. My response....
https://t.co/AVEz6o4ffN

Davidson is someone who needs to be in Westminster = a talent like that shouldn't be squandered on a Parish Council

The lack of political talent in Holyrood outside the upper echelons of the SNP is a major part of the problem so she can't be spared.

But that article understates the dishonesty of the SNP. Dundee was covered with posters like this: http://www.arcofprosperity.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/75004449_poverty.png

Knowing that their financial case was "wishful" makes posters like this some of the most dishonest ever used by a mainstream party in the UK.

Scott_P said:

@BethRigby: #BBC also says it has found £10m of savings by 'reducing management layers': are we abt to see big sweep out of senior executives #BBCcuts

*cough*Yentob*cough*

But that will only account for about 10%

@DPJHodges: Nothing will happen to Ken Livingstone over the @KevanJonesMP comments. He's a Corbynite. Corbynites can do/say whatever they like now.

Floater said:

Maria Eagle not happy re Ken Livingstone - heard about appointment on twitter!!

LOL

New kinder politics indeed.

It's "kinda"!

TheScreamingEagles said:

To think Jez specially appointed a shadow cabinet minister for mental health.

Livingstone didn't get the memo...

Tim_B said:

Scott_P said:

In other news, while Sky were live in Paris this morning broadcasting explosions and gunfire, the BBC were showing the status of London tube services, followed by the local weather...

BBC World News has been covering the raid quite well. The were the first to report that police dog Diesel had been killed.

What a scoop!!!!

It is simply not tenable for Labour to be led by a leader of the parliamentary party in the House of Commons, where the real political power is exercised, who is opposed by 90% of its members.

So either Corbyn will cease to be their leader in any real sense (in that he actually leads his MPs - instead he will be told by a surrogate leader, or ignored) or a new party will be formed.

The third 'trying to make it work' option is no longer a go'er, but I expect we'll have a lot more fracturing and dishevelling to go before we get there.

What it means, of course, is the effective ending of the Labour Party as an effective political force in the UK. At least in its current form.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

Blimey, anyone else heard the response to the request for 1 minute silence in the Turkish football match ?!

What an utter disgrace.

Apparently they do it all the time

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turkey-fans-boo-minutes-silence-for-paris-victims-but-it-was-not-a-mark-of-disrespect-claim-a6738741.html

I think this commentor has found the nail/head:

The fans are predominantly nationalist, Sunni Muslims who support Erdogans Islamism and to a large degree ISIS who is their proxy fighting against their Nemesis - the Kurds.

What people fail to mention is the Ankara bombings a month ago targeted Kurds - there was a minutes silence then too, which was also booed!

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Cide, the grid idea is silly.

F1's current problems are many. The aero issue may be reduced due to new wider front wings and narrower rear wings. Finance and governance need sorting. More than half the grid's struggling, and that's unacceptable. They also need to stop shedding good circuits for lucrative but tedious processional street circuits.

The engine gaps are excessive. If Ferrari can't compete next year, rules may need to be changed (there's some talk of a 'neutral' engine in 2017, but that may be just a negotiating tactic by Ecclestone and the FIA).

Your post looks like it's based on an assumption that I'm interested. I don't know where you got that idea from.

There would be some poetic justice if the person who finally kills off the Corbyn leadership is Ken Livingstone

Mr. Cide, you responded to a post about F1 with a suggestion to improve it.

@BBCEleanorG: Kevan Jones tells @carolewalkercw he finds comments made about him by Ken Livingstone "gravely offensive."

It's a good job France didn't have a scheduled friendly in Ankara last night.

It's been a bad week for Jezza, but surely he must bottom out soon?

CD13 said:

It's been a bad week for Jezza, but surely he must bottom out soon?

There is going to be months more of this.

I've lost my compass on what's a Bad Day for Jezza these days.

CD13 said:

It's been a bad week for Jezza, but surely he must bottom out soon?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Cide, you responded to a post about F1 with a suggestion to improve it.

A joke I'm afraid - obviously a bad one. In my opinion it's beyond improvement.

The problem with Labour (one of many) is that you get people like Livingstone hanging aroud like a bad smell.

Slackbladder said:

Craig Woodhouse ‏@craigawoodhouse 1 min1 minute ago

Livingstone refuses to apologise FOUR times on LBC re Kevan Jones comments. "He was rude about me, I was rude back..he needs to get over it"

Charmer...

Kevan Jones was a member of the special Select Committee set up to scrutinise the Bill that became the Armed Forces Act 2011. He was also a member of the Public Bill Committee for the Defence Reform Act 2014. Jones knows his onions, so the new co-chair of the Defence Review will attempt to undermine or possibly purge him from the party.

CD13 said:

It's been a bad week for Jezza, but surely he must bottom out soon?

Prime Minister's Questions in half an hour. The nadir may yet lie ahead.

@paulwaugh · 41s41 seconds ago
Jeremy Corbyn has asked @ken4london 'to apologise straight away' to Kevan Jones.

Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 1 min1 minute ago

Jeremy Corbyn has asked @ken4london 'to apologise straight away' to Kevan Jones.

CD13 said:

It's been a bad week for Jezza, but surely he must bottom out soon?

surely there is a PB competition here to see who can come up with the most bizarre next appointment/move by Jezza.

Ofc prior to today 20% of entries would have involved Ken..

@lucianaberger: My response to @ken4london's mental health related comments https://t.co/YyRMzpaQm0

Scott_P said:

@lucianaberger: My response to @ken4london's mental health related comments https://t.co/YyRMzpaQm0

"Mr Livingstone" - Ouch!