politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jim Murphy loses his seat now in what is now Scötterdämmeru

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  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Kingston Con gain, it appears

    Ashcroft wrong...
    Can we find a seat he was right?
  • Gadfly
    Gadfly Posts: 1,205
    CarlottaVance said:

    This has gone curiously quiet......

    https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius

    Although he has picked up 2 more followers since this morning :-)

  • oxfordsimon
    oxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    NeilVW said:

    Harperson on a report that Ed is toast: "I take what I read in the Guardian with a pinch of salt"
    LOL

    Jowell not Harriet. Similar - but not quite the same. Harriet is slightly posher
  • LucyJones
    LucyJones Posts: 651
    CarlottaVance said:

    This has gone curiously quiet......

    https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius

    Is that tim, or have I misunderstood?

  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,715
    foxinsoxuk said:

    kle4 said:

    I doubt many will admit to this soon, but I actually like Clegg. The party is back yo where to where it was many decades ago under his reign, but personally and politically I can find much I like in him.

    I think that Nick Clegg will be better thought of with the perspective of time
    He's a little John Major like, isn't he?
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories hit their number 109 target in Kingston & Surbiton.
  • JonCisBack
    JonCisBack Posts: 911
    I don;t suppose there's any chance Ben Bradshaw will lose in Exeter is there? He is such a c0ck
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Slackbladder said:

    Laura Kuenssberg ‏@bbclaurak 46 secs47 seconds ago

    Labour source 'every Labour person still awake is texting about the leadership contest, which starts tmrw'

    Miliband is gone. I can't believe anyone can think otherwise.
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Rotherham incoming

    Anyone but Labour.
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    edited May 2015
    CopperSulphate said:

    Chameleon said:

    Hartlepool LAB HOLD.

    Damn. Any idea of the votes?
    3k in it
  • Prodicus
    Prodicus Posts: 658
    DavidL said:

    Harlow tory hold? Was that not yet another target?

    Yes. Local Tories gave it their all to hold. Formerly traditional Lab marginal.

  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Rotherham easy Lab hold, UKIP 2nd
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Lab 40 LD 27 in Cardiff Central
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    edited May 2015
    Labour hold Rotherham.

    UKIP a long way off.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    rcs1000 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    kle4 said:

    I doubt many will admit to this soon, but I actually like Clegg. The party is back yo where to where it was many decades ago under his reign, but personally and politically I can find much I like in him.

    I think that Nick Clegg will be better thought of with the perspective of time
    He's a little John Major like, isn't he?
    John Major didn't wipe out his own party so completely as Nick Clegg.
    Clegg has wiped out his party so thoroughly as if it was a window stain.
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    Interesting to wonder how LibDems would have done had Clegg stepped down as leader before the election.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,715
    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Kingston Con gain, it appears

    Ashcroft wrong...
    Can we find a seat he was right?
    He's been right in a bunch of seats... and wrong in a bunch...
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We've had 4,000 comments since 10pm

    Well done to those keeping the site up :)
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Burton Tory hold
  • NeilVW
    NeilVW Posts: 749
    oxfordsimon: Thanks, got my Labour harridans mixed up :-)
  • notme
    notme Posts: 3,293
    edited May 2015
    con hold carlisle (unofficial) increased majority
  • CopperSulphate
    CopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Laura Kuenssberg ‏@bbclaurak 46 secs47 seconds ago

    Labour source 'every Labour person still awake is texting about the leadership contest, which starts tmrw'

    Miliband is gone. I can't believe anyone can think otherwise.
    I hope he tries against all reason to tough it out. That would be most amusing.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,075
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We've had 4,000 comments since 10pm

    Are we tough enough? Hell, yes, we're tough enough :)
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    JonCisBack said:

    I don;t suppose there's any chance Ben Bradshaw will lose in Exeter is there? He is such a c0ck

    Yes there is a chance based on what we've seen so far.

    Cardiff North may be interesting...
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Lab hold Bootle!! It aint over!
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,715
    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    kle4 said:

    I doubt many will admit to this soon, but I actually like Clegg. The party is back yo where to where it was many decades ago under his reign, but personally and politically I can find much I like in him.

    I think that Nick Clegg will be better thought of with the perspective of time
    He's a little John Major like, isn't he?
    John Major didn't wipe out his own party so completely as Nick Clegg.
    He was handed a poisoned chalice. He didn't have any choice but to go into coalition with the Conservative Party. The UK benefited. The LibDems did not.
  • Gravitation
    Gravitation Posts: 287
    Chippenham Con gain
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Con gain Chippenham
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    This site has been brilliant tonight. Love the results flow keep them coming: beating Sky and BBC.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    Slackbladder said:

    Lab hold Bootle!! It aint over!

    LOL
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    Chippenham!!!!!
  • CopperSulphate
    CopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    SandyRentool said:

    CopperSulphate said:

    Chameleon said:

    Hartlepool LAB HOLD.

    Damn. Any idea of the votes?
    3k in it
    Thanks. I heard it was closer earlier.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    foxinsoxuk said:

    kle4 said:

    I doubt many will admit to this soon, but I actually like Clegg. The party is back yo where to where it was many decades ago under his reign, but personally and politically I can find much I like in him.

    I think that Nick Clegg will be better thought of with the perspective of time
    He's got to be a strong contender to become our EU commissioner next time round.
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Has anyone heard from Mark Senior? Should he be on suicide watch?
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    One Lib Dem MP left in Wales.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited May 2015
    Williamglenn All the Labour candidates, Burnham, Umunna and Cooper would be real contendors, Ed M, sad to say, like Hague and IDS, never was
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    edited May 2015
    BBC coverage is funny, they just can't hide their disappointment. Apparently fixed term parliament was an ill thought out disaster...really...we got a stable government for 5 years.
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    What's that LD gain I just saw,, Cumbernauld or something?
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JosiasJessop said:

    Labour hold Rotherham.

    UKIP a long way off.

    So far kippers seem to be strongest in the NE, but got nearly 20% in both Wigan and Leigh. They may well do well in NW too.

  • Saltire
    Saltire Posts: 525
    DavidL: I see you efforts were not in vain as the Conservative vote was up in Perth and NP. Just the SNP vote went up aswell (smallest swing to the SNP vs 2nd place party so far though I think at only 4.5%)
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    edited May 2015
    notme said:

    con hold carlisle (unofficial) increased majority

    And I thought that Lab was going to do well in the NW...
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,715
    Hearing LibDems hold Hallam...
  • Andrew
    Andrew Posts: 2,900
    Biggest swing yet, 35% in Glasgow SW.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    ITV News ‏@itvnews 2m2 minutes ago
    CON Hold Stroud #GE2015

  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Brent wipeout
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Ave_it said:

    Chippenham!!!!!

    Surely this is a majority now?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Chameleon said:

    notme said:

    con hold carlisle (unofficial) increased majority

    Gain surely?
    No, 15th on their list.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    i
    alex. said:

    Interesting to wonder how LibDems would have done had Clegg stepped down as leader before the election.

    Against this tide probably not much better, but a little better.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    kle4 said:

    I doubt many will admit to this soon, but I actually like Clegg. The party is back yo where to where it was many decades ago under his reign, but personally and politically I can find much I like in him.

    I think that Nick Clegg will be better thought of with the perspective of time
    He's a little John Major like, isn't he?
    John Major didn't wipe out his own party so completely as Nick Clegg.
    He was handed a poisoned chalice. He didn't have any choice but to go into coalition with the Conservative Party. The UK benefited. The LibDems did not.
    Of course he had a choice, and he made the wrong one.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    bbc hopeless coverage again
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    Those of us who thought Lord A's Q1 would be a better predictor than Q2.....
  • Fat_Steve
    Fat_Steve Posts: 361
    LucyJones said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    This has gone curiously quiet......

    https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius

    Is that tim, or have I misunderstood?

    Poor Old Tim.
    After Ed Milliband became Labour Leader, he lost something.

    In the same way that "PBTory" became a term of honour, can I apply to be a "PBHodges"? or is it too late?

  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    edited May 2015
    Expense cheat Dawn Butler back in...disgusting.

    Again, Labour taking the electorate for fools reselecting such an individual.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Dawn Butler is back in Brent Central...
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,715
    Freggles said:

    What's that LD gain I just saw,, Cumbernauld or something?

    There's no LibDem gain...
  • LucyJones
    LucyJones Posts: 651
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Rotherham easy Lab hold, UKIP 2nd

    That's quite depressing - the Labour hold rather than the Ukip 2nd, I mean. I really can't understand the mentality of people who continue to vote Labour in that town.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    BTW, how's twitter?


    :D:D:D:D
  • macisback
    macisback Posts: 382
    Labour smashed out of the park in Burton, Derby North very close according to local media.
  • oxfordsimon
    oxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    Galloway out - BBC
  • Gravitation
    Gravitation Posts: 287
    Wow, 10,000 Con majority in Chippenham
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    LDs lose by 26,000 in Brent C????!?!?!?!
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ShippersUnbound: Rumours circulating that Clegg will resign tonight and quit politics altogether
  • Prodicus
    Prodicus Posts: 658
    AndyJS said:

    Tories hit their number 109 target in Kingston & Surbiton.


    Whereas LAB failed to get their #1 target.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,866
    Saltire said:

    DavidL: I see you efforts were not in vain as the Conservative vote was up in Perth and NP. Just the SNP vote went up aswell (smallest swing to the SNP vs 2nd place party so far though I think at only 4.5%)

    Haven't seen the result but good to hear it was a respectable showing. Dare I suggest that the only way for the SNP is now down?
  • notme
    notme Posts: 3,293
    edited May 2015
    Chameleon said:

    notme said:

    con hold carlisle (unofficial) increased majority

    And I thought that Lab was going to do well in the NW...
    I did repeatedly say.... Polls wrong, no swing against. I was mocked.
  • FluffyThoughts
    FluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    Surbiton: Gain.
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    Shadsy appears to have given up & gone home.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Kle4 Indeed, though a yougov poll a few days ago had No 53 Yes 47 in a rerun referendum
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Rumours circulating that Clegg will resign tonight and quit politics altogether

    Interesting by-election
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Rumours circulating that Clegg will resign tonight and quit politics altogether

    would that spring a by-election if he wins?
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    rcs1000 said:

    Freggles said:

    What's that LD gain I just saw,, Cumbernauld or something?

    There's no LibDem gain...
    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/596503815626555392
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,715
    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    kle4 said:

    I doubt many will admit to this soon, but I actually like Clegg. The party is back yo where to where it was many decades ago under his reign, but personally and politically I can find much I like in him.

    I think that Nick Clegg will be better thought of with the perspective of time
    He's a little John Major like, isn't he?
    John Major didn't wipe out his own party so completely as Nick Clegg.
    He was handed a poisoned chalice. He didn't have any choice but to go into coalition with the Conservative Party. The UK benefited. The LibDems did not.
    Of course he had a choice, and he made the wrong one.
    Really? It would have been better to get into a "rainbow" coalition of losers? That would have been better for the UK?
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Rumours circulating that Clegg will resign tonight and quit politics altogether

    He will 100% take some sort of EU related job.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    ?
    Britain Elects @britainelects · 5m 5 minutes ago
    There's a recount going on in Wirral West. That's Esther McVey's seat.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Lab hold Alyn & Deeside
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    LD gain... what??
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The Conservatives are holding seats consistent with an overall majority.
  • MyBurningEars
    MyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited May 2015
    LucyJones said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    This has gone curiously quiet......

    https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius

    Is that tim, or have I misunderstood?

    It is.

    Works worse when you see his (t)witterings on their own; when they spike up an otherwise one-sided thread and occasionally throw a different light or insight on a topic, there seemed to be a lot of value in it. Personality and etiquette issues aside, anyway. But a full-on diet of it neither looks as funny nor as clever, and with the benefit of hindsight, the Wrong is really quite funny.
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    BBC flashed it up as LD as well. Someone can't tell their light yellow from their orange yellow.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Yippee!
    oxfordsimon said:

    Galloway out - BBC

  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,075
    Dagenham...
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    Gravitation said:

    Wow, 10,000 Con majority in Chippenham

    Good grief. Cons majority is now much better than evens.

    Galloway out is icing on the cake.
  • Chris_A
    Chris_A Posts: 1,237
    The Tories might be rejoicing now but the Tory party will be destroyed by losing the referendum in two years' time.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Lab hold Alyne and Deeside...after Vale of Clwyd one never knows
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    CopperSulphate said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Laura Kuenssberg ‏@bbclaurak 46 secs47 seconds ago

    Labour source 'every Labour person still awake is texting about the leadership contest, which starts tmrw'

    Miliband is gone. I can't believe anyone can think otherwise.
    I hope he tries against all reason to tough it out. That would be most amusing.
    I think for the first time, Labour will force a leader out. The parliamentary party probably hate his guts right now.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 5s6 seconds ago
    Labour GAIN Bradford West. George Galloway OUT.
    0 retweets 0 favorites
    Reply Retweet Favorite
    More

    GG out.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,715
    Freggles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Freggles said:

    What's that LD gain I just saw,, Cumbernauld or something?

    There's no LibDem gain...
    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/596503815626555392
    LibDems on 9.5% last time

    Would be utterly shocking
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    JonCisBack said:

    I don;t suppose there's any chance Ben Bradshaw will lose in Exeter is there? He is such a c0ck

    Big effort put in, but probably not this time. But with the SW going blue, then Plymouth and Exeter will get all the effort next time....
  • RobinWiggs
    RobinWiggs Posts: 621
    MarqueeMark said:

    RobinWiggs said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So...what do we put down to Tories getting all these swings in England?

    Was it the Tories scare tactics over the Lab+SNP?

    I think people woke up this morning and thought 'Miliband as PM? I can't vote for that'

    I think it is too simple to put it down to one message.

    Lab + SNP for some.
    The horror of Milliband PM for others.
    Balls as CoE for others.
    Stopping UKIP for others.
    Positive vote for finishing off recovering the economy for others.

    The Crosby campaign spoke to all of these are different times. In retrospect it may well have been a masterful campaign. I wonder at which point in the past few days the internal polling started to show this - or was it squeaky bum time for them as well as us?
    We were certainly reading it the last few days. Today, we got very strange responses from phoning the soft Labour vote - over half of it was coming over to the Tories. Thought it was too good to be true. But....
    That's interesting. I wonder why the late phone polls weren't picking this up, but showed a convergence with the online polls.
  • oxfordsimon
    oxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    MP_SE said:

    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Rumours circulating that Clegg will resign tonight and quit politics altogether

    He will 100% take some sort of EU related job.
    For all his faults, he did the right thing 5 years ago - and helped sustain a coalition for 5 years. He deserves a future career.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Freggles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Freggles said:

    What's that LD gain I just saw,, Cumbernauld or something?

    There's no LibDem gain...
    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/596503815626555392
    feck, that's the one bet in Scotland I've got on the SNP!!!!!! must be wrong
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    BBC coverage is funny, they just can't hide their disappointment. Apparently fixed term parliament was an ill thought out disaster...really...we got a stable government for 5 years.

    Really? I'm not getting that at all.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Rumours circulating that Clegg will resign tonight and quit politics altogether

    Clegg gone, Miliband gone ('Edstone provided) and Farage probably gone. There's going to be some good betting opportunities.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @britainelects: Labour GAIN Bradford West. George Galloway OUT.
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    Chris_A said:

    The Tories might be rejoicing now but the Tory party will be destroyed by losing the referendum in two years' time.

    Wishful thinking maybe
  • Andrew
    Andrew Posts: 2,900
    Cable apparent in trouble - good, he's been useless. That's not a partisan point, I actually feel sorry for the Libs in general (esp Danny Alexander), they had no choice but coalition and have got an utterly unfair clobbering as a result.
  • volcanopete
    volcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Ukip source reported as saying they now expect 1 seat only Clacton.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP just 5,000 votes behind Labour in Dagenham.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    UKIP good second in Dagenham
  • CopperSulphate
    CopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    UKIP racking up the second places.
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