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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jim Murphy loses his seat now in what is now Scötterdämmeru

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  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Gadfly said:

    Marr sums up the BBC's issue... "London is doing rather well for the Labour party. The only part of the country that is"

    And even that isn't doing too well for them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    antifrank said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Curran thumped

    A 33/1 bet comes home.
    Lol £200 on her at 1-5 worst bet of the election

    33s on Snp £10 somewhat better...

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    HYUFD said:

    Chuka's majority increased from 3,000 to 10,000

    Racking up votes where they don't need them.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Scott_P said:

    Lots of talk of 'divided nation', but I think Tory majority in England, SNP wipeout in Scotland could be the perfect result.

    Tories offer FFA, Your move Nicola

    Dare the SNP to vote down a #conservative Queen's Speech with the FFA in it?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    RobinWiggs said:

    Monty said:

    Ed is toast.

    He'll be gone before Justine even makes his toast for breakfast.
    In which kitchen?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SophyRidgeSky: Jack Staw tells Sky News its a "pretty depressing" situation & "it's up to Mr Miliband to decide his own future" #GE2015
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Farron holds
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Tim Farron survives
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    So far SNP are at 100% of seats.

    Edinburgh and highlands will decide if its everything.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Farron in...
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Welsh Tory surge!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Farron back - if I read Sky ticker correctly.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Tim Farron is the second LibDem MP of the night
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Farron stays on
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    Farron holds on?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    will Harriet ever resign or is Deputy for life?

    She has no morals - so no, she will cling on.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Monty said:

    Really hope Nick P gets back in.

    Ditto
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2015
    MM He would certainly be far better than Miliband, remember when Kerry suffered a worse defeat than Gore in 2004 the Democrats went for a telegenic black candidate, I expect Labour to do the same
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Gadfly said:

    Marr sums up the BBC's issue... "London is doing rather well for the Labour party. The only part of the country that is"

    Metropolitan party for a metropolitan area.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    RobinWiggs said:

    Monty said:

    Ed is toast.

    He'll be gone before Justine even makes his toast for breakfast.
    Haven't you heard they have staff that do that for them....
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    Farron holds

    2 out of 10.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:



    kle4 said:

    LDs agreed to coalition and didn't oust clegg before now - he led them to this, but they accepted it.

    The union is still dead though. Cameron could be Jesus he couldn't fix this

    The LD were only interested for the ministerial limos so much they got them up their rear.
    I think that's harsh. I don't think they had any choice.
    Agreed. They did what was needed and don't deserve this wipeout.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Come on LDs... nine more...

    Hold Cambridge please... hold Cambridge...
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Casino_Royale said:

    EMWNMITTL.


    arf

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    notme said:

    Dare the SNP to vote down a #conservative Queen's Speech with the FFA in it?

    Exactly
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Easy win for Farron. 51.5% to 32.2$
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chuka's majority increased from 3,000 to 10,000

    Great - Labour will think he is the answer....

    Wrong!
    If Chuka is the answer, you're asking the wrong question.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Dair said:

    So far SNP are at 100% of seats.

    Edinburgh and highlands will decide if its everything.

    And the borders. SCUP larger or equal to SLab is a certainty IMO.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Redcar incoming
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Tories doubled their majority in Worcester:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14001052
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Farron holds

    2 out of 10.
    2 out of 11 please.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    tlg86 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    EMWNMITTL.

    Ed Miliband Will Never Make It To Tomorrow Lunchtime?
    Yarp.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    We haven't had many seats from the North West yet. How are Labour doing there.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Slackbladder said:

    Redcar incoming

    Massively easy Labour gain.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Fallon wins with only a 2.5% swing against him
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    RobinWiggs said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So...what do we put down to Tories getting all these swings in England?

    Was it the Tories scare tactics over the Lab+SNP?

    I think people woke up this morning and thought 'Miliband as PM? I can't vote for that'

    I think it is too simple to put it down to one message.

    Lab + SNP for some.
    The horror of Milliband PM for others.
    Balls as CoE for others.
    Stopping UKIP for others.
    Positive vote for finishing off recovering the economy for others.

    The Crosby campaign spoke to all of these are different times. In retrospect it may well have been a masterful campaign. I wonder at which point in the past few days the internal polling started to show this - or was it squeaky bum time for them as well as us?
    We were certainly reading it the last few days. Today, we got very strange responses from phoning the soft Labour vote - over half of it was coming over to the Tories. Thought it was too good to be true. But....
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LDs lose Redcar to Labour
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    RobinWiggs said:

    Monty said:

    Ed is toast.

    He'll be gone before Justine even makes his toast for breakfast.
    Haven't you heard they have staff that do that for them....
    In which kitchen?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Cumbernauld etc has gone SNP. That was one of my bigger bets.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    Redcar Lab gain from LD
  • initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 736
    martin day wins
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Quite something when 31% swings aren't that surprising anymore.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Slackbladder said:

    Redcar incoming

    LDs stayed 500 votes ahead of UKIP.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Markfergusonuk: Labour loses its no 1 target seat. I’m not sure this has hit rock bottom for Labour yet
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Kle4 As Quebec shows and the success of the Bloc Quebecois in the nineties that is not necessarily the case, though devomax for Scotland in return for EVEL would be sensible
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    rcs1000 said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Redcar incoming

    Massively easy Labour gain.
    Wasn't there some local issue in RedCar last time around that killed the Labour vote? I seemed to remember some big employer shut down just before the GE.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    So many interesting counts, and Sky go big on....................Redcar.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    Harlow tory hold? Was that not yet another target?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,302
    Philip_Thompson said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chuka's majority increased from 3,000 to 10,000

    Great - Labour will think he is the answer....

    Wrong!
    If Chuka is the answer, you're asking the wrong question.
    The question they're asking is apparently, "Who will be our IDS to Miliband's Hague?"

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Redcar incoming

    Massively easy Labour gain.
    Wasn't there some local issue in RedCar last time around?
    Closure of the steel works...
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Scott_P said:

    @Markfergusonuk: Labour loses its no 1 target seat. I’m not sure this has hit rock bottom for Labour yet

    Imagine if they go on to lose more to the Tories in E&W than they gain...
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    Tessa Jowell so much wants to go home.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Lab hold Hartlepool
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    Switched from BBC to SKY :)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Diane James sadly not standing for UKIP leader
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    SPIN also crosses the 323 boundary, at 323.5 now. IG 323, spreadex suspended but prolly going to update >=323 as well.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    I doubt many will admit to this soon, but I actually like Clegg. The party is back yo where to where it was many decades ago under his reign, but personally and politically I can find much I like in him.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @carrieapples: Conservatives GAIN Eastleigh
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects now
    The Lib Dems have said that Simon Hughes has lost in Bermondsey and Old Southwark.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    MarqueeMark said:

    RobinWiggs said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So...what do we put down to Tories getting all these swings in England?

    Was it the Tories scare tactics over the Lab+SNP?

    I think people woke up this morning and thought 'Miliband as PM? I can't vote for that'

    I think it is too simple to put it down to one message.

    Lab + SNP for some.
    The horror of Milliband PM for others.
    Balls as CoE for others.
    Stopping UKIP for others.
    Positive vote for finishing off recovering the economy for others.

    The Crosby campaign spoke to all of these are different times. In retrospect it may well have been a masterful campaign. I wonder at which point in the past few days the internal polling started to show this - or was it squeaky bum time for them as well as us?
    We were certainly reading it the last few days. Today, we got very strange responses from phoning the soft Labour vote - over half of it was coming over to the Tories. Thought it was too good to be true. But....
    The conservative (and labour) canvassing results have been showing this for some time. *no* swing back. Central Office clearly knew exactly where the line was. Which is why they finished the Con campaign in Carlisle.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    Ed Davey gone. First cabinet minister.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    Diane James is an underused UKIP asset.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2015
    Aberavon

    Kinnock 48.9 -3%
    UKIP 15.8 +14.2%
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Ed Davey gone
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Chameleon said:

    Dair said:

    So far SNP are at 100% of seats.

    Edinburgh and highlands will decide if its everything.

    And the borders. SCUP larger or equal to SLab is a certainty IMO.
    Highalnd is all SNP

    Border are all SNP

    Edinbrigh all SNP.

    All this by the broadcasters. It looks good for 59/59
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Redcar Lab gain from LD

    Possibly the least surprising result of the evening
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Hartlepool LAB HOLD.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,234
    Well at least we can win seats from the LibDems
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    It took some time but here we are!
    Scott_P said:

    @carrieapples: Conservatives GAIN Eastleigh

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    This has gone curiously quiet......

    https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Ed Davey gone

    YES!!!
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Dair said:

    So far SNP are at 100% of seats.

    Edinburgh and highlands will decide if its everything.

    Think the 3 Borders seats are in the bag then?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    dr_spyn said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects now
    The Lib Dems have said that Simon Hughes has lost in Bermondsey and Old Southwark.

    Sad
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    CarlottaVance said:

    This has gone curiously quiet......

    https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius

    Retreated to the bunker?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    ITV News ‏@itvnews 30s30 seconds ago
    CON Gain Kingston & Surbiton Ed Davey out #GE2015
    9 retweets 4 favorites
    Reply Retweet9 Favorite4
    More
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    HYUFD said:

    Kle4 As Quebec shows and the success of the Bloc Quebecois in the nineties that is not necessarily the case, though devomax for Scotland in return for EVEL would be sensible

    I wish I could believe SNP will go the same way
    Scott_P said:

    @carrieapples: Conservatives GAIN Eastleigh

    Such slaughter.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,596
    SNP ahead of Cons in seats at the moment.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    CarlottaVance said:

    This has gone curiously quiet......

    https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius

    Do we need to send out a search party to the Middle East to make sure he is ok?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Kingston Con gain, it appears
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2015
    Hartlepool

    Lab 35.6
    UKIP 28
    Con 20.9
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    We've had 4,000 comments since 10pm
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    LOL....Jowell now dissing the Guardian...
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    edited May 2015
    Harperson on a report that Ed could be toast by lunchtime today: "I take what I read in the Guardian with a pinch of salt"
    LOL
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Stephen Kinnock's vote share in Aberavon dropped by 3%. UKIP up 14%:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/W07000049
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    SNP ahead of Cons in seats at the moment.

    lol
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbclaurak: Labour source 'every Labour person still awake is texting about the leadership contest, which starts tmrw'
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    rcs1000 said:

    Kingston Con gain, it appears

    Ashcroft wrong...
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Laura Kuenssberg ‏@bbclaurak 46 secs47 seconds ago

    Labour source 'every Labour person still awake is texting about the leadership contest, which starts tmrw'
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2015
    dr_spyn said:

    ITV News ‏@itvnews 30s30 seconds ago
    CON Gain Kingston & Surbiton Ed Davey out #GE2015
    9 retweets 4 favorites
    Reply Retweet9 Favorite4
    More

    Hehe. Cable is next. When is Twickenham and Hallam?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Ed Davey gawwwwwnnnn
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Labour source 'every Labour person still awake is texting about the leadership contest, which starts tmrw'

    It has started already - probably some time ago
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Chameleon said:

    dr_spyn said:

    ITV News ‏@itvnews 30s30 seconds ago
    CON Gain Kingston & Surbiton Ed Davey out #GE2015
    9 retweets 4 favorites
    Reply Retweet9 Favorite4
    More

    Hehe. Cable is next. When is Twickenham and Hallam?
    Will LDs hold Carshalton?
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    Chameleon said:

    Hartlepool LAB HOLD.

    Damn. Any idea of the votes?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    kle4 said:

    I doubt many will admit to this soon, but I actually like Clegg. The party is back yo where to where it was many decades ago under his reign, but personally and politically I can find much I like in him.

    I think that Nick Clegg will be better thought of with the perspective of time
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Scott_P said:

    @carrieapples: Conservatives GAIN Eastleigh

    Crikey.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    God BBC are awful!!!! Sky on Kingston now.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Rotherham incoming
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Cheerio Davey!!!!
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Saltire said:

    Dair said:

    So far SNP are at 100% of seats.

    Edinburgh and highlands will decide if its everything.

    Think the 3 Borders seats are in the bag then?
    Yep
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Please say Cable is gone...doesn't deserve to keep his seat after how he has spent the past 5 years.
This discussion has been closed.