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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jim Murphy loses his seat now in what is now Scötterdämmeru

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  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Kingston Con gain, it appears

    Ashcroft wrong...
    Can we find a seat he was right?
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191

    This has gone curiously quiet......

    https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius

    Although he has picked up 2 more followers since this morning :-)

  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    NeilVW said:

    Harperson on a report that Ed is toast: "I take what I read in the Guardian with a pinch of salt"
    LOL

    Jowell not Harriet. Similar - but not quite the same. Harriet is slightly posher
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651

    This has gone curiously quiet......

    https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius

    Is that tim, or have I misunderstood?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656

    kle4 said:

    I doubt many will admit to this soon, but I actually like Clegg. The party is back yo where to where it was many decades ago under his reign, but personally and politically I can find much I like in him.

    I think that Nick Clegg will be better thought of with the perspective of time
    He's a little John Major like, isn't he?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories hit their number 109 target in Kingston & Surbiton.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    I don;t suppose there's any chance Ben Bradshaw will lose in Exeter is there? He is such a c0ck
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Laura Kuenssberg ‏@bbclaurak 46 secs47 seconds ago

    Labour source 'every Labour person still awake is texting about the leadership contest, which starts tmrw'

    Miliband is gone. I can't believe anyone can think otherwise.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    Rotherham incoming

    Anyone but Labour.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,234
    edited May 2015

    Chameleon said:

    Hartlepool LAB HOLD.

    Damn. Any idea of the votes?
    3k in it
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    DavidL said:

    Harlow tory hold? Was that not yet another target?

    Yes. Local Tories gave it their all to hold. Formerly traditional Lab marginal.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Rotherham easy Lab hold, UKIP 2nd
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Lab 40 LD 27 in Cardiff Central
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    I doubt many will admit to this soon, but I actually like Clegg. The party is back yo where to where it was many decades ago under his reign, but personally and politically I can find much I like in him.

    I think that Nick Clegg will be better thought of with the perspective of time
    He's a little John Major like, isn't he?
    John Major didn't wipe out his own party so completely as Nick Clegg.
    Clegg has wiped out his party so thoroughly as if it was a window stain.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    edited May 2015
    Labour hold Rotherham.

    UKIP a long way off.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Interesting to wonder how LibDems would have done had Clegg stepped down as leader before the election.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Kingston Con gain, it appears

    Ashcroft wrong...
    Can we find a seat he was right?
    He's been right in a bunch of seats... and wrong in a bunch...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036

    We've had 4,000 comments since 10pm

    Well done to those keeping the site up :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Burton Tory hold
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    oxfordsimon: Thanks, got my Labour harridans mixed up :-)
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    edited May 2015
    con hold carlisle (unofficial) increased majority
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119

    Laura Kuenssberg ‏@bbclaurak 46 secs47 seconds ago

    Labour source 'every Labour person still awake is texting about the leadership contest, which starts tmrw'

    Miliband is gone. I can't believe anyone can think otherwise.
    I hope he tries against all reason to tough it out. That would be most amusing.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    I don;t suppose there's any chance Ben Bradshaw will lose in Exeter is there? He is such a c0ck

    Yes there is a chance based on what we've seen so far.

    Cardiff North may be interesting...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150

    We've had 4,000 comments since 10pm

    Are we tough enough? Hell, yes, we're tough enough :)
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Lab hold Bootle!! It aint over!
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Chippenham Con gain
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    I doubt many will admit to this soon, but I actually like Clegg. The party is back yo where to where it was many decades ago under his reign, but personally and politically I can find much I like in him.

    I think that Nick Clegg will be better thought of with the perspective of time
    He's a little John Major like, isn't he?
    John Major didn't wipe out his own party so completely as Nick Clegg.
    He was handed a poisoned chalice. He didn't have any choice but to go into coalition with the Conservative Party. The UK benefited. The LibDems did not.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Con gain Chippenham
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    This site has been brilliant tonight. Love the results flow keep them coming: beating Sky and BBC.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533

    Lab hold Bootle!! It aint over!

    LOL
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Chippenham!!!!!
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119

    Chameleon said:

    Hartlepool LAB HOLD.

    Damn. Any idea of the votes?
    3k in it
    Thanks. I heard it was closer earlier.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,302

    kle4 said:

    I doubt many will admit to this soon, but I actually like Clegg. The party is back yo where to where it was many decades ago under his reign, but personally and politically I can find much I like in him.

    I think that Nick Clegg will be better thought of with the perspective of time
    He's got to be a strong contender to become our EU commissioner next time round.
  • Has anyone heard from Mark Senior? Should he be on suicide watch?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    One Lib Dem MP left in Wales.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2015
    Williamglenn All the Labour candidates, Burnham, Umunna and Cooper would be real contendors, Ed M, sad to say, like Hague and IDS, never was
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    BBC coverage is funny, they just can't hide their disappointment. Apparently fixed term parliament was an ill thought out disaster...really...we got a stable government for 5 years.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    What's that LD gain I just saw,, Cumbernauld or something?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Labour hold Rotherham.

    UKIP a long way off.

    So far kippers seem to be strongest in the NE, but got nearly 20% in both Wigan and Leigh. They may well do well in NW too.

  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    DavidL: I see you efforts were not in vain as the Conservative vote was up in Perth and NP. Just the SNP vote went up aswell (smallest swing to the SNP vs 2nd place party so far though I think at only 4.5%)
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2015
    notme said:

    con hold carlisle (unofficial) increased majority

    And I thought that Lab was going to do well in the NW...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Hearing LibDems hold Hallam...
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Biggest swing yet, 35% in Glasgow SW.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    ITV News ‏@itvnews 2m2 minutes ago
    CON Hold Stroud #GE2015

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    Ave_it said:

    Chippenham!!!!!

    Surely this is a majority now?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Brent wipeout
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Chameleon said:

    notme said:

    con hold carlisle (unofficial) increased majority

    Gain surely?
    No, 15th on their list.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    i
    alex. said:

    Interesting to wonder how LibDems would have done had Clegg stepped down as leader before the election.

    Against this tide probably not much better, but a little better.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    I doubt many will admit to this soon, but I actually like Clegg. The party is back yo where to where it was many decades ago under his reign, but personally and politically I can find much I like in him.

    I think that Nick Clegg will be better thought of with the perspective of time
    He's a little John Major like, isn't he?
    John Major didn't wipe out his own party so completely as Nick Clegg.
    He was handed a poisoned chalice. He didn't have any choice but to go into coalition with the Conservative Party. The UK benefited. The LibDems did not.
    Of course he had a choice, and he made the wrong one.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    bbc hopeless coverage again
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Those of us who thought Lord A's Q1 would be a better predictor than Q2.....
  • Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    LucyJones said:

    This has gone curiously quiet......

    https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius

    Is that tim, or have I misunderstood?

    Poor Old Tim.
    After Ed Milliband became Labour Leader, he lost something.

    In the same way that "PBTory" became a term of honour, can I apply to be a "PBHodges"? or is it too late?

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    Expense cheat Dawn Butler back in...disgusting.

    Again, Labour taking the electorate for fools reselecting such an individual.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Dawn Butler is back in Brent Central...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Freggles said:

    What's that LD gain I just saw,, Cumbernauld or something?

    There's no LibDem gain...
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651

    Rotherham easy Lab hold, UKIP 2nd

    That's quite depressing - the Labour hold rather than the Ukip 2nd, I mean. I really can't understand the mentality of people who continue to vote Labour in that town.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    BTW, how's twitter?


    :D:D:D:D
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    Labour smashed out of the park in Burton, Derby North very close according to local media.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    Galloway out - BBC
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Wow, 10,000 Con majority in Chippenham
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    LDs lose by 26,000 in Brent C????!?!?!?!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ShippersUnbound: Rumours circulating that Clegg will resign tonight and quit politics altogether
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    AndyJS said:

    Tories hit their number 109 target in Kingston & Surbiton.


    Whereas LAB failed to get their #1 target.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    Saltire said:

    DavidL: I see you efforts were not in vain as the Conservative vote was up in Perth and NP. Just the SNP vote went up aswell (smallest swing to the SNP vs 2nd place party so far though I think at only 4.5%)

    Haven't seen the result but good to hear it was a respectable showing. Dare I suggest that the only way for the SNP is now down?
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    edited May 2015
    Chameleon said:

    notme said:

    con hold carlisle (unofficial) increased majority

    And I thought that Lab was going to do well in the NW...
    I did repeatedly say.... Polls wrong, no swing against. I was mocked.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    Surbiton: Gain.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Shadsy appears to have given up & gone home.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Kle4 Indeed, though a yougov poll a few days ago had No 53 Yes 47 in a rerun referendum
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Rumours circulating that Clegg will resign tonight and quit politics altogether

    Interesting by-election
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Rumours circulating that Clegg will resign tonight and quit politics altogether

    would that spring a by-election if he wins?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    rcs1000 said:

    Freggles said:

    What's that LD gain I just saw,, Cumbernauld or something?

    There's no LibDem gain...
    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/596503815626555392
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    I doubt many will admit to this soon, but I actually like Clegg. The party is back yo where to where it was many decades ago under his reign, but personally and politically I can find much I like in him.

    I think that Nick Clegg will be better thought of with the perspective of time
    He's a little John Major like, isn't he?
    John Major didn't wipe out his own party so completely as Nick Clegg.
    He was handed a poisoned chalice. He didn't have any choice but to go into coalition with the Conservative Party. The UK benefited. The LibDems did not.
    Of course he had a choice, and he made the wrong one.
    Really? It would have been better to get into a "rainbow" coalition of losers? That would have been better for the UK?
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Rumours circulating that Clegg will resign tonight and quit politics altogether

    He will 100% take some sort of EU related job.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    ?
    Britain Elects @britainelects · 5m 5 minutes ago
    There's a recount going on in Wirral West. That's Esther McVey's seat.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Lab hold Alyn & Deeside
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    LD gain... what??
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The Conservatives are holding seats consistent with an overall majority.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited May 2015
    LucyJones said:

    This has gone curiously quiet......

    https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius

    Is that tim, or have I misunderstood?

    It is.

    Works worse when you see his (t)witterings on their own; when they spike up an otherwise one-sided thread and occasionally throw a different light or insight on a topic, there seemed to be a lot of value in it. Personality and etiquette issues aside, anyway. But a full-on diet of it neither looks as funny nor as clever, and with the benefit of hindsight, the Wrong is really quite funny.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    BBC flashed it up as LD as well. Someone can't tell their light yellow from their orange yellow.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Yippee!

    Galloway out - BBC

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    Dagenham...
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766

    Wow, 10,000 Con majority in Chippenham

    Good grief. Cons majority is now much better than evens.

    Galloway out is icing on the cake.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    The Tories might be rejoicing now but the Tory party will be destroyed by losing the referendum in two years' time.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Lab hold Alyne and Deeside...after Vale of Clwyd one never knows
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Laura Kuenssberg ‏@bbclaurak 46 secs47 seconds ago

    Labour source 'every Labour person still awake is texting about the leadership contest, which starts tmrw'

    Miliband is gone. I can't believe anyone can think otherwise.
    I hope he tries against all reason to tough it out. That would be most amusing.
    I think for the first time, Labour will force a leader out. The parliamentary party probably hate his guts right now.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 5s6 seconds ago
    Labour GAIN Bradford West. George Galloway OUT.
    0 retweets 0 favorites
    Reply Retweet Favorite
    More

    GG out.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Freggles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Freggles said:

    What's that LD gain I just saw,, Cumbernauld or something?

    There's no LibDem gain...
    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/596503815626555392
    LibDems on 9.5% last time

    Would be utterly shocking
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952

    I don;t suppose there's any chance Ben Bradshaw will lose in Exeter is there? He is such a c0ck

    Big effort put in, but probably not this time. But with the SW going blue, then Plymouth and Exeter will get all the effort next time....
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621

    So...what do we put down to Tories getting all these swings in England?

    Was it the Tories scare tactics over the Lab+SNP?

    I think people woke up this morning and thought 'Miliband as PM? I can't vote for that'

    I think it is too simple to put it down to one message.

    Lab + SNP for some.
    The horror of Milliband PM for others.
    Balls as CoE for others.
    Stopping UKIP for others.
    Positive vote for finishing off recovering the economy for others.

    The Crosby campaign spoke to all of these are different times. In retrospect it may well have been a masterful campaign. I wonder at which point in the past few days the internal polling started to show this - or was it squeaky bum time for them as well as us?
    We were certainly reading it the last few days. Today, we got very strange responses from phoning the soft Labour vote - over half of it was coming over to the Tories. Thought it was too good to be true. But....
    That's interesting. I wonder why the late phone polls weren't picking this up, but showed a convergence with the online polls.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    MP_SE said:

    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Rumours circulating that Clegg will resign tonight and quit politics altogether

    He will 100% take some sort of EU related job.
    For all his faults, he did the right thing 5 years ago - and helped sustain a coalition for 5 years. He deserves a future career.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Freggles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Freggles said:

    What's that LD gain I just saw,, Cumbernauld or something?

    There's no LibDem gain...
    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/596503815626555392
    feck, that's the one bet in Scotland I've got on the SNP!!!!!! must be wrong
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    BBC coverage is funny, they just can't hide their disappointment. Apparently fixed term parliament was an ill thought out disaster...really...we got a stable government for 5 years.

    Really? I'm not getting that at all.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Rumours circulating that Clegg will resign tonight and quit politics altogether

    Clegg gone, Miliband gone ('Edstone provided) and Farage probably gone. There's going to be some good betting opportunities.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @britainelects: Labour GAIN Bradford West. George Galloway OUT.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    Chris_A said:

    The Tories might be rejoicing now but the Tory party will be destroyed by losing the referendum in two years' time.

    Wishful thinking maybe
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Cable apparent in trouble - good, he's been useless. That's not a partisan point, I actually feel sorry for the Libs in general (esp Danny Alexander), they had no choice but coalition and have got an utterly unfair clobbering as a result.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Ukip source reported as saying they now expect 1 seat only Clacton.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP just 5,000 votes behind Labour in Dagenham.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    UKIP good second in Dagenham
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    UKIP racking up the second places.
This discussion has been closed.