politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Your sortable & searchable PB guide to Labour’s top 80 CON
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I hope that isn't a comment on someone's stature.TheScreamingEagles said:
A high chair?MarkHopkins said:TheScreamingEagles said:Someone said earlier, I could tweet a made up exit poll figure around this time, and most of the world would believe it.
So I'm going for Con 495, SNP 59, Irish 18, PC 3, UKIP 2, Others 3, Speaker 1, Lab 69
I think you're a bit low on the Speaker's seats.0 -
hahaPolruan said:
Presumably followed by note to self: find new girlfriend whose best mate isn't a 20 stone bloke recently out of HMP Durham.nigel4england said:
Many moons ago when I was young and fit I did the threesome thing with my then girlfriend and her mate, never worked so hard in my life. Never again.Anorak said:
That's a fivesome.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, a foursome, every man's fantasy, a chance to disappoint four women at once.RobD said:
In a foursome you just feel burning shame in front of three women. Or two women and another man. When there's only one women it ceases being a foursome and becomes a gang bang. Well, that's what my wife told me anyway.
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Getting super twitchy over by Constituency bets.
MUST. STAY. STRONG.
Where's antifrank when you need him?0 -
Snigger.TheScreamingEagles said:
A high chair?MarkHopkins said:TheScreamingEagles said:Someone said earlier, I could tweet a made up exit poll figure around this time, and most of the world would believe it.
So I'm going for Con 495, SNP 59, Irish 18, PC 3, UKIP 2, Others 3, Speaker 1, Lab 69
I think you're a bit low on the Speaker's seats.0 -
Have we won? Been in governors meeting... poor timing!0
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"It's not a high chair, I just like very thick cushions"RobD said:
I hope that isn't a comment on someone's stature.TheScreamingEagles said:
A high chair?MarkHopkins said:TheScreamingEagles said:Someone said earlier, I could tweet a made up exit poll figure around this time, and most of the world would believe it.
So I'm going for Con 495, SNP 59, Irish 18, PC 3, UKIP 2, Others 3, Speaker 1, Lab 69
I think you're a bit low on the Speaker's seats.
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One annoying this, I have a 40second delay on my feed as I am watching on iPlayer. Might have to have a moratorium on pressing F5 at 9:59pm just so I don't spoil it
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True. I still can't get a gp in the area I moved into 3 months ago because I've not got hold of two utility bills with my name on to go along with my passport (never mind that most utility bills are electronic these days, and no a print out won't suffice). Also noticed the previous inhabitants of our new gaffe are still on the register... presumably they could've voted in their new constituency and their old one too.FrancisUrquhart said:
Seems totally bonkers to me. People have given reasons why it isn't fair, suppresses people ability to vote...but you can't open a bank account without id, can't get on a plane without id, basically you can't do diddly without ID these days...well other than vote.numbertwelve said:
I am still amazed though that you can still just saunter into a polling station in this country, give your name and address, and make a vote. im surprised we haven't introduced voter ID requirements.FrankBooth said:I have to say I find it really bizarre to see all these countries that use electronic voting. As soon as the polls close you get the result. Weird. I hope it never happens here.
So much for the paperless office, Mr Tony Blair!
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Getting exciting now!
Bit like Sat before last - 4.50pm Rotherham equalise against Norwich!!! 4.52pm Fulham go ahead against Boro!!! 4.55pm Watford up!!!!
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Have the pollsters egged up the SNP out of all proportion? What a laugh if it's all a con.Saltire said:Beginning to think that if the Tories are confident then it might spell bad night for the Libdems (under 20 or even 15) those SW polls might be right...
Voted this evening in a strong SNP part of Perth. Turnout apparently about normal for a GE according to those in the polling station.0 -
Ruth Davidson seems to have reverted to posting pictures of scones since the cops told her to stop hallucinating about burly blokes.0
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"Best Seats" market ???JGC said:definite slight movement on the best seats market, it might simply be random or triggered by the tory private poll story but there must also be increasing numbers of folk in the know with the real exit poll
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Supreme Governor Scrapheap?Scrapheap_as_was said:Have we won? Been in governors meeting... poor timing!
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I only encountered a tiny handful of disappointed voters who forgot to change their address, had been removed for whatever reason and didn't know etc
I was surprised by the resilience of the GOTV to be registered!chestnut said:Twitter is a steady stream of under 30s suddenly realising they can't vote, and there's thousands missing in some uni towns.
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We had two ballot boxes at my polling station, one for the locals and one for Parliament. Not sure I have seen that before. Presumably it reduces the time to untangle the two types of ballots - previously I thought they all went in the same box.0
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My constituency predictions for every region of GB except for the North West (which I'm still processing):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xLb-zCJIdoHCy7K_BDizJoiL8-YRCadVvUx_YZxLX0U/edit#gid=00 -
The ability of the exit poll to predict seat numbers is weakened by the likely high proportion of postal votes already cast up to two weeks ago. couple of weeks ago.0
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I've now moved from denial, though anger and depression, and into acceptance that the Tories are toast and EICIPM.
If the exit poll at 10 shows that might not be the case, I'm going to have to go through the whole f*#king cycle again. Possibly more than once.0 -
TSE has gone rancid and is in a sweat!!!!!TheScreamingEagles said:
Oops I meantnumbertwelve said:
Poor Lib Dems. Better cancel the taxi.TheScreamingEagles said:Someone said earlier, I could tweet a made up exit poll figure around this time, and most of the world would believe it.
So I'm going for Con 495, SNP 59, Irish 18, PC 3, UKIP 2, Others 3, Speaker 1, Lab 69
Con 460, LDs 35, SNP 59, Irish 18, PC 3, UKIP 2, Others 3, Speaker 1, Lab 690 -
oops most seats.......peter_from_putney said:
"Best Seats" market ???JGC said:definite slight movement on the best seats market, it might simply be random or triggered by the tory private poll story but there must also be increasing numbers of folk in the know with the real exit poll
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SNP up 0.5 on SPIN.0
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Yes, I always look down on John Bercow.RobD said:
I hope that isn't a comment on someone's stature.TheScreamingEagles said:
A high chair?MarkHopkins said:TheScreamingEagles said:Someone said earlier, I could tweet a made up exit poll figure around this time, and most of the world would believe it.
So I'm going for Con 495, SNP 59, Irish 18, PC 3, UKIP 2, Others 3, Speaker 1, Lab 69
I think you're a bit low on the Speaker's seats.
In a few years time, we'll find out that Napoleon had a "Bercow Complex"0 -
No idea - it can't be damage limitation as 303 seats would almost certainly leave them in Government - surely no one expects them to gain a majority. That would require incredible tactical anti-labour switching in the polling station. I suppose there is a remote chance that some Labour - Tory marginals will switch on red-kipper voting.currystar said:
Why spin now?weejonnie said:Some people believing Tory spin re seats?
(UKIP join coalition on 2 demands.
1) Free and fair referendum on EU membership within a year and
2) Reduce the telly tax to £50.00)0 -
I understand completely how you feel.Anorak said:I've now moved from denial, though anger and depression, and into acceptance that the Tories are toast and EICIPM.
If the exit poll at 10 shows that might not be the case, I'm going to have to go through the whole f*#king cycle again. Possibly more than once.
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Titter.....TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, I always look down on John Bercow.RobD said:
I hope that isn't a comment on someone's stature.TheScreamingEagles said:
A high chair?MarkHopkins said:TheScreamingEagles said:Someone said earlier, I could tweet a made up exit poll figure around this time, and most of the world would believe it.
So I'm going for Con 495, SNP 59, Irish 18, PC 3, UKIP 2, Others 3, Speaker 1, Lab 69
I think you're a bit low on the Speaker's seats.
In a few years time, we'll find out that Napoleon had a "Bercow Complex"0 -
Just managed to grab snout an hours sleep, but cant now with the exit poll coming0
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Just back from doing the business. Ludlow..
As someone said earlier, like a battered wife etc....0 -
SPIN up another notch to 19.0
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Lab down one on SPIN just now. Gaps are 18, 18.5 and 19 at the three spread biggies.0
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thats because we have all been out knocking on doorsDanny565 said:
We had our fun, but now reality is coming crashing in.Ave_it said:Labour posters appear to be a bit less prominent on here than a few hours ago?!
Here is a recent post from the Labourlist live blog
"21.22 We’re hearing positive things from Nuneaton where Labour’s Vicky Fowler is hoping to unseat Conservative Marcus Jones. The seat is Labour’s 37th target and will be vital to a good night for us."0 -
Any news?0
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Labour tellers either being misled of bigging up their vote all day now being countered by the actual exit polls hitting the bookies?
That would explain Tory and SNP rises and Labour fall.0 -
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SNP price in DUMFRIESSHIRE CLYDESDALE AND TWEEDDALE (sorry for caps, copy and paste) has shortened dramatically to 1.4 - I got on @ 2 ten days ago.MikeK said:
Have the pollsters egged up the SNP out of all proportion? What a laugh if it's all a con.Saltire said:Beginning to think that if the Tories are confident then it might spell bad night for the Libdems (under 20 or even 15) those SW polls might be right...
Voted this evening in a strong SNP part of Perth. Turnout apparently about normal for a GE according to those in the polling station.0 -
I wonder how many pairs of eyes see the exit poll between it being handed over to the broadcasters in 5 minutes time and it being screened approx 17 minutes later?0
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They are up half a seat.DaemonBarber said:0 -
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Mike Smithson:-
"History of general elections is that late swings as seen in polls have been magnified in actual results. Maybe tonight will be different."
WORD!0 -
Ridiculous number...I would presume the unofficial exit polls being conducted are also starting to circulate.peter_from_putney said:I wonder how many pairs of eyes see the exit poll between it being handed over to the broadcasters in 5 minutes time and it being screened approx 17 minutes later?
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Aaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!! TOO MUCH TENSION *pant* *pant* *pant*
/ turns off laptop / wanders off to light a joss stick / plays some calming whalesong /0 -
Where's Mike? He got told what the exit poll was in 2010 didn't he?peter_from_putney said:I wonder how many pairs of eyes see the exit poll between it being handed over to the broadcasters in 5 minutes time and it being screened approx 17 minutes later?
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SNP dropped over the day by 1 seat. Labour were bigging up their potential holds.DaemonBarber said:
Now that the bookies will have the exit polls, SNP rising.
Means Labour info about holds may not be reliable.0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11590314/Violents-bond-moves-signal-tectonic-shifts-in-global-markets.html
'It is absolute pandemonium in the fixed income markets. Everybody has been trying to get out at the same time but the door is getting smaller,' says RBS
It must be Grexit is near and UKIP are doing well.
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Paisley!
Get the nut in!!0 -
Labour shortening a bit on betfair....0
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But are we not expecting a higher proportion of postal votes than 2010?AndyJS said:
Isn't that what was being said at the last election, and in fact the exit poll was very accurate?rogerh said:The ability of the exit poll to predict seat numbers is weakened by the likely high proportion of postal votes already cast up to two weeks ago. couple of weeks ago.
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Are the Sun likely to have seen the exit polls or indeed done one of their own?0
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How will the bookies have the exit poll?Dair said:
SNP dropped over the day by 1 seat. Labour were bigging up their potential holds.DaemonBarber said:
Now that the bookies will have the exit polls, SNP rising.
Means Labour info about holds may not be reliable.0 -
Thanks for the "clarification"...RobD said:
They are up half a seat.DaemonBarber said:0 -
New Statesman Blog says Labour think they've done very well in London, pretty well in Wales but are "braced for disappointment" otherwise.0
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Huge turnout in my constituency. 60 people even now queuing up to get in.0
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How many times has Adam Boulton mispronounced Kirkcaldy?0
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YouGov have done an exit poll for the Sun.Roger said:Are the Sun likely to have seen the exit polls or indeed done one of their own?
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What we need right now is a stong, fiscally conservative government with a strong record of controlling spending and record low rates on their borrowing.MikeK said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11590314/Violents-bond-moves-signal-tectonic-shifts-in-global-markets.html
'It is absolute pandemonium in the fixed income markets. Everybody has been trying to get out at the same time but the door is getting smaller,' says RBS
It must be Grexit is near and UKIP are doing well.
Shit.0 -
Ah, yeah. It'd be useful to put from what level they were up 0.5. Sorry!DaemonBarber said:
Thanks for the "clarification"...RobD said:
They are up half a seat.DaemonBarber said:0 -
Half seat and seat moves on the spreads count for nothing, its when it moves 5 or 10 then something has been released into the wild.0
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Compouter gets a copy faxed to him.peter_from_putney said:I wonder how many pairs of eyes see the exit poll between it being handed over to the broadcasters in 5 minutes time and it being screened approx 17 minutes later?
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I think the politicians and everybody in the media (including Rupert and TND) will know what the exit poll say's now.Roger said:Are the Sun likely to have seen the exit polls or indeed done one of their own?
BBC may well be about to take the champagne and party poppers out of ice!
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21:41: George Eaton in the house! Our political editor has arrived. He is "cautiously optimistic".Danny565 said:New Statesman Blog says Labour think they've done very well in London, pretty well in Wales but are "braced for disappointment" otherwise.
"Exit poll's a big moment. That's when we discover whether the army of shy Tories that haunts us at night is real."0 -
Can't be as many as during the Crewe and Nan-wich....rather than "Nant-witch".Eh_ehm_a_eh said:How many times has Adam Boulton mispronounced Kirkcaldy?
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So the broadcasters surely have the poll now, unless they are still tweaking it?0
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Has he even attempted Na h-Eileanan an Iar?Eh_ehm_a_eh said:How many times has Adam Boulton mispronounced Kirkcaldy?
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Massive turnout in my safe Tory constituency. Nothing been seen like it in 30 years.0
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MEDIA NOW KNOW THE OFFICIAL FINAL EXIT POLL....0
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Ah thanks... In short then: not much of substance.Dair said:
SNP dropped over the day by 1 seat. Labour were bigging up their potential holds.DaemonBarber said:
Now that the bookies will have the exit polls, SNP rising.
Means Labour info about holds may not be reliable.0 -
I'm not making any allegations.FrankBooth said:
How will the bookies have the exit poll?Dair said:
SNP dropped over the day by 1 seat. Labour were bigging up their potential holds.DaemonBarber said:
Now that the bookies will have the exit polls, SNP rising.
Means Labour info about holds may not be reliable.
Believe if you wish or not.0 -
Anyone got a list of Scotland seats ranked by swing needed?0
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All this discussion of leaks: what is this information that people think is reliable enough to leak? As far as I understand it, the exit pollsters will be pretty pleased if they translate vote share to seats for the big two +/- 25; that means you'd have to have a very definite leak of a party lead of +3% to be confident that told you enough to bet.
Doesn't seem that plausible; and also ignores the possibility that the exit polls are wrong on vote share. On the other hand, over-enthusiastic Blue backers trying to ramp in order to exit their positions - that sounds plausible.
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TSE - can we have a huge 'next thread' warning.. so I don't end up refreshing this page for no reason.0
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I think this is one: http://ukgeneralelection.com/2014/12/15/labour-v-snp-a-guide-to-the-battlegroundAlistair said:Anyone got a list of Scotland seats ranked by swing needed?
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Get the Nuhiu in.Ave_it said:Paisley!
Get the nut in!!
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Rubbish.Fenster said:
Compouter gets a copy faxed to him.peter_from_putney said:I wonder how many pairs of eyes see the exit poll between it being handed over to the broadcasters in 5 minutes time and it being screened approx 17 minutes later?
Nobody has a fax anymore.0 -
Anyone confident? Compouter?0
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Wow. If they haven't made decent progress in the rest of England the polls must be wrong.Danny565 said:New Statesman Blog says Labour think they've done very well in London, pretty well in Wales but are "braced for disappointment" otherwise.
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@IsabelHardman: Update: Labour sources pouring cold water on idea of PR as an offer to Lib Dems http://t.co/282bOWot8w0
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It'll be the Midlands that kill Labour. And Scotland, of course.0
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I read somewhere that football teams still have to fax in the team sheets....nigel4england said:
Rubbish.Fenster said:
Compouter gets a copy faxed to him.peter_from_putney said:I wonder how many pairs of eyes see the exit poll between it being handed over to the broadcasters in 5 minutes time and it being screened approx 17 minutes later?
Nobody has a fax anymore.0 -
We have a fax. Tbh it can be quicker than email. Not sure why they really went out of fashion.nigel4england said:
Rubbish.Fenster said:
Compouter gets a copy faxed to him.peter_from_putney said:I wonder how many pairs of eyes see the exit poll between it being handed over to the broadcasters in 5 minutes time and it being screened approx 17 minutes later?
Nobody has a fax anymore.0 -
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RobD said:
TSE - can we have a huge 'next thread' warning.. so I don't end up refreshing this page for no reason.
I will do just that
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Someone else in SkyNews team mispronoucing Lochaber and Badenoch a few minutes ago.rullko said:
Has he even attempted Na h-Eileanan an Iar?Eh_ehm_a_eh said:How many times has Adam Boulton mispronounced Kirkcaldy?
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https://twitter.com/LesleyRiddoch/status/596415570347700224
Can't really see Paisley and Ren South being saved.0 -
From another post from the same blog posted here, it seems a lot of that is down to fear of 'Shy Tories' more than anything else. Either way, we'll see.FrankBooth said:
Wow. If they haven't made decent progress in the rest of England the polls must be wrong.Danny565 said:New Statesman Blog says Labour think they've done very well in London, pretty well in Wales but are "braced for disappointment" otherwise.
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Needs to be much bigger than thatTheScreamingEagles said:RobD said:TSE - can we have a huge 'next thread' warning.. so I don't end up refreshing this page for no reason.
I'll try
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Lets hope so!!!!SouthamObserver said:It'll be the Midlands that kill Labour. And Scotland, of course.
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Old city saying was always "buy the rumour sell the fact"
Be prepared..0 -
5 minutes to go.....plus those still in a queue.0
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Or 10.....*cleans glasses*
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