politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB close the gap with Ipsos and get within 1% with Ashcrof
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Frustratingly, today's polls lack data sets - will they be put up at all?0
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I'll drink to that, from my easy chair overlooking a rainy south Manchester back garden! Good work, sounds like you're living it up.taffys said:If I had listened to financial markets analysts the way some on here adhere to pollsters, I probably wouldn't be posting this from Barbados.
Great place to follow the results. Five hours behind, bbc 24 on tap, as much rum as I can drink. Oh and balcony overlooking Caribbean Sea.0 -
That's a killer "stat" for the Tories and really shows how their campaign has failed miserably.TheScreamingEagles said:@guardian_clark: ICM detail 2: In marginal battlegrounds where Con were 2% ahead in 2010, Lab has 11% lead today. Sub-samples, for sure, but not tiny ones
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I am not sure how the Cameroons will spin a result like that, economic fundamentals means they should be 2/3 points ahead. Unfortunately I fear the neocons like Osborne, Gove etc. will stay on.
Ed winning would certainly smash the Blairite consensus, for that be grateful.0 -
Am on it at 6s this morning - will surely go lower before 10pm.currystar said:
Smash into Labour most seats then at 5.3, must be the best value in the history of betfairFenster said:
First Labour lead with ICM in four months. And on polling day too.TheScreamingEagles said:@martinboon: @ICMResearch @guardian_clark very final: @Conservatives 34% @UKLabour 35% @UKIP 11% @LibDems 9% @TheGreenParty 4% @theSNP 5% PC 1% #GE2015
Ed Miliband should comfortably form a government on UNS (with SNP support).
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Well, it was 450 additional responses added to yesterday's 1560 or soRodCrosby said:
really? Joke poll then...dyedwoolie said:And it was only 450 sample, so a little bit naughty
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I wonder if the attempted character assassination of Ed Miliband has backfired; generated sympathy with the public and, some ways, might have benefited Labour.0
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Straightforward question to veteran PBers - has there ever been as great a disparity between polling and most-seats betting markets as we're seeing now?0
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Visting her family in Germany?watford30 said:
Sam Cam looked fine - adjust your TV set.Bob__Sykes said:If Scotland has not after all gone SNP en masse and the Tories are having a tougher time than expected south of the border, then let's not forget Ed could find himself with or close to a majority tomorrow. The momentum is with Labour not the Tories.
I thought whilst Cameron in his polling station photo was all smiles, Sam looked like death.
They know it's all over.
Where was Mrs Farage?0 -
Labour voters certainty to vote:
May 2010: 65%
May 2015: 86%
The dark days maybe coming to an end !0 -
Not sure about Gove but Osborne goes down with Cameron. He's finished.FalseFlag said:I am not sure how the Cameroons will spin a result like that, economic fundamentals means they should be 2/3 points ahead. Unfortunately I fear the neocons like Osborne, Gove etc. will stay on.
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Completely OT...but worth a watch...
China's Ma Long and Fang Bo play 'point of the century'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/table-tennis/326232840 -
So is now the appropriate time to start panicking?0
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So either shy Tories are really really shy and/or the pollsters still haven't found a way to account for them - not a single one of them has managed it - or there has been a late swing to Labour, or we have been witnessing a shy Labour effect.
Take your pick.0 -
at this rate, my 10% of winnings donated to PB is looking like me actually raising an invoice......0
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@StephanShaxper: I see there's been a late swing to @YouGov!0
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Yes. During the election that never was. Some of the prices were well out of sync with what the polls were showing.Ghedebrav said:Straightforward question to veteran PBers - has there ever been as great a disparity between polling and most-seats betting markets as we're seeing now?
It was like punters thought no way do the voters really like Brown.0 -
Yes, IF there has been a late swing then I think that could be the cause. Brits don't take kindly to bullying.Daniel said:I wonder if the attempted character assassination of Ed Miliband has backfired; generated sympathy with the public and, some ways, might have benefited Labour.
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Romney/Obama - although we know now that this was to some extent contrived by the Romney team.AndyJS said:
In 2010 the markets were predicting Labour to get 225 and they got 258.Ghedebrav said:Straightforward question to veteran PBers - has there ever been as great a disparity between polling and most-seats betting markets as we're seeing now?
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The problem is that the sample size really is too small to infer anything. Polls are also indicating that there are geographical differences and this does not seem to have been factored into this statement.FrancisUrquhart said:
That's a killer "stat" for the Tories and really shows how their campaign has failed miserably.TheScreamingEagles said:@guardian_clark: ICM detail 2: In marginal battlegrounds where Con were 2% ahead in 2010, Lab has 11% lead today. Sub-samples, for sure, but not tiny ones
Interestingly most respondents in the poll still expect the Conservatives to win.
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Worth noting this swing to Labour in the polls started at the weekend.
Something was afoot by Friday night.
Still. These are polls. The real action is going on out there right now.0 -
That Tory complacency again? Maybe Labour peeps have a bit more fight and desire in themTheScreamingEagles said:@guardian_clark: ICM interesting detail 1 - the voters still expect the Tories to edge it - @martinboon's wisdom index Con 35, Lab 32
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OK, makes more sense. Thanks.dyedwoolie said:
Well, it was 450 additional responses added to yesterday's 1560 or soRodCrosby said:
really? Joke poll then...dyedwoolie said:And it was only 450 sample, so a little bit naughty
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There is no question if the poll is right then Labour win easily. Lose 40 seats in Scotland and gain 80 in England? But this is not a new poll is it? They have just continued the polling on from the last one. No idea what that means but it was not whaty the '35% strategy' was originally based onFrancisUrquhart said:
Gold standard etc etc etc....Miliband 35% strategy looking good...could be an early night after all.TheScreamingEagles said:@martinboon: @ICMResearch @guardian_clark very final: @Conservatives 34% @UKLabour 35% @UKIP 11% @LibDems 9% @TheGreenParty 4% @theSNP 5% PC 1% #GE2015
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ICM might be what's needed to get Tory/UKIP waverers to vote Tory.0
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Antifrank might be proved right, yet again.
I'm not sure I understand the British electorate anymore. The decisions they're making make absolutely no sense to me.0 -
I have been talking about this for days. DYOR.TGOHF said:
Am on it at 6s this morning - will surely go lower before 10pm.currystar said:
Smash into Labour most seats then at 5.3, must be the best value in the history of betfairFenster said:
First Labour lead with ICM in four months. And on polling day too.TheScreamingEagles said:@martinboon: @ICMResearch @guardian_clark very final: @Conservatives 34% @UKLabour 35% @UKIP 11% @LibDems 9% @TheGreenParty 4% @theSNP 5% PC 1% #GE2015
Ed Miliband should comfortably form a government on UNS (with SNP support).0 -
Far far too late.AndyJS said:ICM might be what's needed to get Tory/UKIP waverers to vote Tory.
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No movement in onlines, or fractional to Tory. Swing to Lab in phone polls. What gives?0
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There could. Some Labour voters simply don't give a stuff about Labour always wrecking the economy. They vote Labour because through taxes and incompetence, Labour will make life worse for people they envy. And that is their goal in voting.surbiton said:
There has been no late swing.Scrapheap_as_was said:
if lab move ahead then the impression of a late swing but to Labour will be complete.TheScreamingEagles said:What a blinking tease
@guardian_clark: Watch this space for the final final ICM poll which I hope won't be too long coming, and provides one final twist @martinboon
what fun....
I thought the Question Time debate was a disaster ! The man can't eat a bacon sandwich. He knifed his brother in the back. Didn't he say the Labour Party "did not overspend".
Surely, there could not be any late swing to Labour. Could it ?
This is why so many will still vote Labour in Rotherham. If you see the role of government as being to make other people worse off, so as to equalise them with yourself, why would you care about Labour turning a blind eye to paedophile rape gangs? What's that got to do with anything? The main thing is they'll bash the south-east.0 -
Of course it has, people don't like bullyingDaniel said:I wonder if the attempted character assassination of Ed Miliband has backfired; generated sympathy with the public and, some ways, might have benefited Labour.
One of my friends is a Tory voter and he hates Miliband but even he said the piss taking of him is just too much0 -
Mr ghedebrav, my aim is get people not to get too hung up on polls. I genuinely think. This is an election to go with your instincts.0
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It seems to me that it is Nicola Sturgeon who has firmed the labour vote if that is the case. There are many who want to end austerity and would view an Ed Miliband government as being forced along this path and that to vote Ed Miliband would de facto get Nicola SDaniel said:I wonder if the attempted character assassination of Ed Miliband has backfired; generated sympathy with the public and, some ways, might have benefited Labour.
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What i don't understand is how a consistent and clear trend to the Tories in the phone polls since Jan/Feb would level out and all return to Labour in the last 36 hours.
Makes no sense to me at all.0 -
If average swing in marginal > 6%, even minus Scotland.FrancisUrquhart said:
That's a killer "stat" for the Tories and really shows how their campaign has failed miserably.TheScreamingEagles said:@guardian_clark: ICM detail 2: In marginal battlegrounds where Con were 2% ahead in 2010, Lab has 11% lead today. Sub-samples, for sure, but not tiny ones
I don't know. That could be something else altogether.0 -
#GoldStandard
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Interesting - thanks. I'll be enjoying the PB boards this evening.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes. During the election that never was. Some of the prices were well out of sync with what the polls were showing.Ghedebrav said:Straightforward question to veteran PBers - has there ever been as great a disparity between polling and most-seats betting markets as we're seeing now?
It was like punters thought no way do the voters really like Brown.
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#InYourFaceDave0
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Enough to make Labour your 2nd preference ahead of the tories?isam said:
Of course it has, people don't like bullyingDaniel said:I wonder if the attempted character assassination of Ed Miliband has backfired; generated sympathy with the public and, some ways, might have benefited Labour.
One of my friends is a Tory voter and he hates Miliband but even he said the piss taking of him is just too much
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Lab Most Seats in England still 10/1 at Fred, Tote and Boyle. Combine with a basket of constituency bets on the Tories in Con-held Labour targets 50 or greater0
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I am waiting until Rod Crosby runs another 10 million monte carlos before I give up on 100 percent Tory overall majority.Rod has an enviable track record.(sent from my mobile whilst GOTV)0
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The ape-shitometer in the Tory party will be starting to ramp up - only a few hours left to go.0
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Some of us did (if it happens). I mentioned a few days ago that I wouldn't be surprised to see a Labour majority, not least because voters might well react to the Tories' frantic campaign to stop Sturgeon bullying Milliband by voting Labour rather than Tory.TheScreamingEagles said:@martinboon: Nearly all polls pointing to Labour late swing. Didn't see that coming.
The Tories really should have campaigned on why it made sense to vote for them. Negative campaigning can only get you so far, I would have thought.
Still, we'll find out soon enough.
If Labour do get in it will be interesting to see how they manage the expectations they have built up because I'm quite certain that they will end up taxing and cutting far far more than they have said they will. So a lot of people who thought that Labour would help them or at least not cost them will be disappointed.
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They really have not been that dark, but that is still a very vital statistic.surbiton said:Labour voters certainty to vote:
May 2010: 65%
May 2015: 86%
The dark days maybe coming to an end !
Tory hopes seemes contingent on getting a boost from the economy (if they have, it hasn't been by enough), Ed being crap (he's not been, for the most part) and Labour voters not turning out (which the above says they are).
Chances of Tory government edging down to 1.5% now on my made up metric.
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If the Tories poll 36% (less than 1% down on 2010) after five years of austerity, that's a pretty good effort.FalseFlag said:I am not sure how the Cameroons will spin a result like that, economic fundamentals means they should be 2/3 points ahead. Unfortunately I fear the neocons like Osborne, Gove etc. will stay on.
Ed winning would certainly smash the Blairite consensus, for that be grateful.
Especially if UKIP poll over 10%, which looks likely.
UKIP look as though they will cost the Tories this GE. Democracy at work, whether anybody likes it or not.
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2nd March:
'Tory election planners were expecting things to be better than this by now. Some suggested last summer would be the "crossover" point, when the Tories clearly overtook Labour. Then the autumn was the moment, but It didn't come then either. And now, after two months of attacks on Mr Miliband and rehearsal of the key Tory election themes, the party is still waiting.
"We're stuck," is how one minister puts it. "Nothing we've done yet has moved anyone," says an MP. There's no panic or even much unhappiness to those observations. On the whole, Tories still have a Micawberish faith that Something Will Turn Up, that as election day approaches, voters will simply wake up to a binary Cameron-Miliband choice and vote Tory in droves.'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11444236/Are-the-Conservatives-losing-their-nerve.html0 -
Nothing has changed in the last 36 hours or even two four weeks.Casino_Royale said:What i don't understand is how a consistent and clear trend to the Tories in the phone polls since Jan/Feb would level out and all return to Labour in the last 36 hours.
Makes no sense to me at all.
The only small difference that has been was recorded in the beginning of the campaign when the Great British public found out that Ed Miliband did not eat babies after all. There was a one-off jump and it has remained like that.0 -
What happens when there isn't actually an end to austerity though?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It seems to me that it is Nicola Sturgeon who has firmed the labour vote if that is the case. There are many who want to end austerity and would view an Ed Miliband government as being forced along this path and that to vote Ed Miliband would de facto get Nicola SDaniel said:I wonder if the attempted character assassination of Ed Miliband has backfired; generated sympathy with the public and, some ways, might have benefited Labour.
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I'm not so sure about that. The electorate have forgotten what it's like to have the lunatics in charge of the asylum.Casino_Royale said:Antifrank might be proved right, yet again.
I'm not sure I understand the British electorate anymore. The decisions they're making make absolutely no sense to me.0 -
Labour undecideds have clearly made up their minds in the last few hours/days.Casino_Royale said:What i don't understand is how a consistent and clear trend to the Tories in the phone polls since Jan/Feb would level out and all return to Labour in the last 36 hours.
Makes no sense to me at all.0 -
So in my final totaling I've got £550 in play at this election.
Mostly SNP constituency bets, a few Lab seats here and there plus £50 covering Lab 0-20 seats in Scotland.0 -
@britainelects: We've just received word that ballot papers for the Darlington constituency have omitted one or more the parliamentary candidates.0
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Did it say how many people are likely to lose their jobs ?TheScreamingEagles said:@britainelects: We've just received word that ballot papers for the Darlington constituency have omitted one or more the parliamentary candidates.
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LOLTheScreamingEagles said:@britainelects: We've just received word that ballot papers for the Darlington constituency have omitted one or more the parliamentary candidates.
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Casino royals
It makes no sense if you think pollsters know are savvy in touch experts who really know what they are doing.
If you think they are very, very, human, and that's being very kind, it makes all the sense in the world
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Bye election ?TheScreamingEagles said:@britainelects: We've just received word that ballot papers for the Darlington constituency have omitted one or more the parliamentary candidates.
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Lab most seats looks so wrong that I am hesitating putting money on it as surely the market cannot be that out of whack with reality?0
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A point perhaps worth noting, JGC, is that the Most Seats market has been fairly lightly traded - only £300,000 since yesterday afternoon. You get more than that on a seller at Lingfield.JGC said:
Me too, just seems oddPeter_the_Punter said:
Well I can't explain it, JGC, but I will have a guess.JGC said:I really cant understand the betfair most seats market.
Despite all the evidence of a lot of polling in the past 24 hours that the parties are pretty much neck & neck and fairly convincing evidence of a firming up of the labour vote, there are still significant numbers of people prepared to give odds of over 4/1 against labour will having the most seats. I am happy to admit on the polling it is not clear who will come out with most seats, you can make the case either way. However that would suggest the odds for the tories & labour should be similar. I know that there is a thought that tory inclined voters are more inclined to bet than labour ones (I must admit to doing fairly well on the seats market last time as I was very confident labour would be 250+ and the spread market very much under priced labour) but this really makes very little sense.
Is there anyone on here who is offering 5.3 on labour having the most seats and if so could you explain your reasoning?
The market is being played by punters with little experience of political betting. They see the main Parties are virtually tied and think that with Labour losing 40 or so seats in Scotland that must make the Conservatives favorites for most seats.
Anyway, 5.3 is a daft price for Labour and I've been backing that judgement with hard-earned all morning.
Punters waiting for developments? Personally I'd have expected this morning's polls to have shifted the price more, but if it was all too predictable nobody would bet at all.
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One interesting thing. The triumphalism and despair on this site is the exact opposite of 2010, when Tory majority seemed assumed by many and Lab meltdown. We know what happened.....0
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It called the Southern Observer endorsement around these parts...DanSmith said:
Labour undecideds have clearly made up their minds in the last few hours/days.Casino_Royale said:What i don't understand is how a consistent and clear trend to the Tories in the phone polls since Jan/Feb would level out and all return to Labour in the last 36 hours.
Makes no sense to me at all.0 -
Lord Bell interview in the Telegraph saying that the Fallon attack was a big mistake.Danny565 said:
Yes, IF there has been a late swing then I think that could be the cause. Brits don't take kindly to bullying.Daniel said:I wonder if the attempted character assassination of Ed Miliband has backfired; generated sympathy with the public and, some ways, might have benefited Labour.
I agree - and if it goes badly tonight for them CCHQ (and News UK) need to think reflect on how they spurned an open goal on economic competency (rightly or wrongly) to instead poke fun at Miliband for looking funny and not adhering to primogeniture - minor-public-school bully behaviour.0 -
Ooh none of the above!Danny565 said:
Enough to make Labour your 2nd preference ahead of the tories?isam said:
Of course it has, people don't like bullyingDaniel said:I wonder if the attempted character assassination of Ed Miliband has backfired; generated sympathy with the public and, some ways, might have benefited Labour.
One of my friends is a Tory voter and he hates Miliband but even he said the piss taking of him is just too much
27/113 unprompted kippers in dag and rainham so far0 -
Alastair, I stopped having thoughts like that after watching One Man go off 6/4 favorite in the Gold Cup when all the evidence showed plainly the horse could not run a yard beyond three miles.Alistair said:Lab most seats looks so wrong that I am hesitating putting money on it as surely the market cannot be that out of whack with reality?
The evidence did not lie.0 -
@dyedwoolie
The blue team tends to think that PB somehow reflects the voting public, and stokes their own beliefs.
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Taken at face value it looks as though ex-Labour Green supporters have been more prepared to return to the big party fold than ex-Tory UKIP supporters.Casino_Royale said:What i don't understand is how a consistent and clear trend to the Tories in the phone polls since Jan/Feb would level out and all return to Labour in the last 36 hours.
Makes no sense to me at all.
Many of the online polls (eg Populus) always heavily downweighted the Greens, and so this could explain why they aren't picking up the same late swing.
Anyway - about twelve hours until Nuneaton is expected to declare, and we will see how things look then.0 -
Rod, how confident are you that the tories will still gain most seats?RodCrosby said:
really? Joke poll then...dyedwoolie said:And it was only 450 sample, so a little bit naughty
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You might be right. I think sympathy is a powerful motivator. I think John Major got a sympathy vote in 1992 when he took his little soap box out and stood on it. My mother said "Oh bless!" and voted for him. First and only time she voted Tory.Daniel said:I wonder if the attempted character assassination of Ed Miliband has backfired; generated sympathy with the public and, some ways, might have benefited Labour.
It would be funny if it was the Mail and the Sun wot won it - for Ed!0 -
Two Bank of England members have said today that tax rises will not close the deficit. A labour government will be overwhelmed by the markets and will be forced as per Greece to cut spending and by that time some banks and non doms will have left and created big funding gaps for NHS and Education spending.GIN1138 said:
What happens when there isn't actually an end to austerity though?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It seems to me that it is Nicola Sturgeon who has firmed the labour vote if that is the case. There are many who want to end austerity and would view an Ed Miliband government as being forced along this path and that to vote Ed Miliband would de facto get Nicola SDaniel said:I wonder if the attempted character assassination of Ed Miliband has backfired; generated sympathy with the public and, some ways, might have benefited Labour.
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The Tories seem gloomily resigned to a Labour win and vice versa, with both hoping but not expecting to be pleasantly surprised.dyedwoolie said:One interesting thing. The triumphalism and despair on this site is the exact opposite of 2010, when Tory majority seemed assumed by many and Lab meltdown. We know what happened.....
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Arguably the key failing in the Blue campaign was the inability to decide whether the line was "Ed eats babies" or "Ed is too incompetent to eat babies and looks stupid when he tries".surbiton said:
Nothing has changed in the last 36 hours or even two four weeks.Casino_Royale said:What i don't understand is how a consistent and clear trend to the Tories in the phone polls since Jan/Feb would level out and all return to Labour in the last 36 hours.
Makes no sense to me at all.
The only small difference that has been was recorded in the beginning of the campaign when the Great British public found out that Ed Miliband did not eat babies after all. There was a one-off jump and it has remained like that.0 -
@TSEofPB: Follow this man. He's feeling as loved as a ginger stepchild. https://t.co/S0KXaomWdW-1
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The polls more accurately reflect pollsters career concerns than they do voters concerns. If they are right everybody does a lap of honor. If they are wrong nobody takes a bath
It really is interesting to behold.
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Er, I predicted 300 seats for Labour this morning.SeanT said:Richard_Nabavi said:In homage to Avery, here's a yellow box with the latest forecasts from various academics/pundits, and a slection of PB regulars. Apologies for any mistakes (in a couple of cases I've had to guess the PC/Respect figures):
Con Lab LD UKIP SNP PC Resp Grn ======================================= rcs100 311 248 18 2 47 3 1 1 JackW 302 251 28 3 42 3 1 1 Richard Nabavi 295 258 22 3 48 3 1 1 Jonathan 295 270 20 2 40 4? 0 0 Rod Crosby 294 247 34 2 49 3 1 1 Southam Observer 290 251 27 3 55 3 1 1 Peter the Punter 284 264 25 3 50 1? 0? 2 Nick Palmer 271 280 24 2 50 3 0 1 antifrank 266 280 21 4 54 4 1 1 Stephen Fisher 285 262 25 3 53 3 1 1 Peter Kellner 283 261 32 2 50 3 0 1 Election Forecast 281 266 27 1 51 4 1 1 UKelect 274 275 26 2 50 3 0 1 May2015 273 268 28 2 56 3 1 1 Poll Observatory 271 273 24 2 55 3 0 1
For the record, here is my latest prediction, made two days ago (my Official Prediction was very similar):
Tories: 272
Lab: 279
LDs: 25
UKIP: 2
Greens: 1
SNP: 49
Just me, antifrank, and NPXMP on our own predicting a Labour plurality.
rcs100's prediction of CON 311, Lab 248 is especially piquant.
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LD-Lab switchers.Casino_Royale said:What i don't understand is how a consistent and clear trend to the Tories in the phone polls since Jan/Feb would level out and all return to Labour in the last 36 hours.
Makes no sense to me at all.
The subsample numbers are right at the top of the range on ICM and Comres. It would be helpful to see Ipsos.
Quite where these people are concentrated remains to be seen. I'd guess that a lot are in big cities.
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As confident as I can be. 90% ?kjohnw said:
Rod, how confident are you that the tories will still gain most seats?RodCrosby said:
really? Joke poll then...dyedwoolie said:And it was only 450 sample, so a little bit naughty
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taffys said:
Mr ghedebrav, my aim is get people not to get too hung up on polls. I genuinely think. This is an election to go with your instincts.
My instinct is "I don't know what's going to happen" other than more LDs will hang on than polls suggest, and SNP won't be quite as successful as the Scottish swing shows.
Also have a slight fancy that UKIP will win four seats.0 -
Similar in 1945 General Election, when Churchill compared Atlee's social reform program to the Gestapo. The Nazi comparison horrified and shock voters. It was a little OTT.0
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It makes perfect sense. Many of the pollsters filters are based around "likelyhood to vote" or whether "dont knows" will actually vote at all. If what has been happening over the past 48 hours is that a significant number of voters have made up their mind to definitely vote especially if they did not vote last time, that would easily account for the polling changes we have seen. My only caveat would be that yougov did not pick this up and they have designed their current polling regime exactly to pick up this sort of late movement, however their figures are very much in line with all the others.Casino_Royale said:What i don't understand is how a consistent and clear trend to the Tories in the phone polls since Jan/Feb would level out and all return to Labour in the last 36 hours.
Makes no sense to me at all.
On a subjective note my feeling from knocking on a large number of doors over the past 6 months was that there were more genuine "undecideds2 (ie not those who just dont want to tell you there not going to vote for you) than I have come across previously. I even had a chap last night who said he was going to sit down after dinner to read both the labour & tory manifestos to come to a final decision.
We need to wait another 15 or so hours to find out if all this is right0 -
RodCrosby said:
LOLTheScreamingEagles said:@britainelects: We've just received word that ballot papers for the Darlington constituency have omitted one or more the parliamentary candidates.
what happens to GE bets in this situation - ie if some seats have to be rerun? - will we have to wait until all re-runs are complete for bets to settle?RodCrosby said:
LOLTheScreamingEagles said:@britainelects: We've just received word that ballot papers for the Darlington constituency have omitted one or more the parliamentary candidates.
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Is it just me, or is anyone else starting to feel a little....moist?0
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To be honest, Fenster, I'm not sure how democratic a FPTP system can be.Fenster said:
If the Tories poll 36% (less than 1% down on 2010) after five years of austerity, that's a pretty good effort.FalseFlag said:I am not sure how the Cameroons will spin a result like that, economic fundamentals means they should be 2/3 points ahead. Unfortunately I fear the neocons like Osborne, Gove etc. will stay on.
Ed winning would certainly smash the Blairite consensus, for that be grateful.
Especially if UKIP poll over 10%, which looks likely.
UKIP look as though they will cost the Tories this GE. Democracy at work, whether anybody likes it or not.
It looks increasingly like an archaic system kept in place by Parties with a strong vested interest in maintaining the status quo.
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Populus is 33/33 or Lab by one 34/33 depending whether you take the numbers including the squeeze question as the DK in this poll are breaking Tory.
Also has Tory ahead on party most identified with and who you would vote for if you had to.
Straws for my blue friends :-)0 -
Well, maybe they always were Labour supporters to begin with:Casino_Royale said:What i don't understand is how a consistent and clear trend to the Tories in the phone polls since Jan/Feb would level out and all return to Labour in the last 36 hours.
Makes no sense to me at all.
"We find that reported swings in public opinion polls are generally not due to actual shifts in vote intention, but rather are the result of temporary periods of relatively low response rates by supporters of the reportedly slumping candidate. After correcting for this bias, we show there were nearly constant levels of support for the candidates during what appeared, based on traditional polling, to be the most volatile stretches of the campaign..."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/08/20/the-mythical-swing-voter/
That could also possibly explain why the online polls have not shown much recent movement towards Labour whereas the telephone polls have. The internet surveys as a self-selecting sample never had a problem with response...
Nonetheless, I think Conservatives will be more likely to turn out and that recent Ashcroft poll seems to be indicating that UKIP supporters are switching to the Conservatives - if they do so in larger numbers in the marginals, the Conservatives will be well placed to retain their majority of seats.0 -
I think you may be misreading this.surbiton said:Nothing has changed in the last 36 hours or even two four weeks.
The only small difference that has been was recorded in the beginning of the campaign when the Great British public found out that Ed Miliband did not eat babies after all. There was a one-off jump and it has remained like that.
I think people that were flirting with the Greens and such like have suddenly realised that the Tories were winning and are swinging behind Ed and trying to shore up Labour.
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The Conservatives are going to be about as happy as a penguin in a microwave looking at the latest polls, either the polls or the betting markets are wrong, we will see later.
Labour judging by here in Amber Valley yesterday put a huge effort in, where they found all the numbers on a working day I can only guess. Looking at the polls it may have paid off, in the end Cameron and co have hugely brassed off Public Sector workers, capitalised on fully by the Unions. That is where it may end up won and lost. Public Sector workers are motivated en masse to go out and vote Labour.
Not sure most will gain as much as they think they will the nation still spends far too much.
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next PM betfair :
Cam 1.81
ED 2.240 -
I'm predicting a Lab plurality too, though I haven't had the guts to tie myself to particular numbers, so maybe that doesn't count.SeanT said:Richard_Nabavi said:In homage to Avery, here's a yellow box with the latest forecasts from various academics/pundits, and a slection of PB regulars. Apologies for any mistakes (in a couple of cases I've had to guess the PC/Respect figures):
Con Lab LD UKIP SNP PC Resp Grn ======================================= rcs100 311 248 18 2 47 3 1 1 JackW 302 251 28 3 42 3 1 1 Richard Nabavi 295 258 22 3 48 3 1 1 Jonathan 295 270 20 2 40 4? 0 0 Rod Crosby 294 247 34 2 49 3 1 1 Southam Observer 290 251 27 3 55 3 1 1 Peter the Punter 284 264 25 3 50 1? 0? 2 Nick Palmer 271 280 24 2 50 3 0 1 antifrank 266 280 21 4 54 4 1 1 Stephen Fisher 285 262 25 3 53 3 1 1 Peter Kellner 283 261 32 2 50 3 0 1 Election Forecast 281 266 27 1 51 4 1 1 UKelect 274 275 26 2 50 3 0 1 May2015 273 268 28 2 56 3 1 1 Poll Observatory 271 273 24 2 55 3 0 1
For the record, here is my latest prediction, made two days ago (my Official Prediction was very similar):
Tories: 272
Lab: 279
LDs: 25
UKIP: 2
Greens: 1
SNP: 49
Just me, antifrank, and NPXMP on our own predicting a Labour plurality.
rcs100's prediction of CON 311, Lab 248 is especially piquant.0 -
There is still thousands to be made on Betfair most seats market by laying the tories at 1.24-1.260
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Not the sex and drugs then?foxinsoxuk said:
The Netherlands are the only major European going the other way. Mostly down to 25% of journeys by cycling and less of a fast food culture. I was told by an Indonesian Dutch doctor at a conference that cycling lessons are part of the citizenship programme. Can't be Dutch if you cannot ride a bike!JEO said:The WHO report today came out with some very concerning numbers about levels of obesity in the UK. Apparently, 64% of women and 75% of men will be overweight by 2030. That's a sad state to be in as a country. We really need to do a much better job of teaching children how to manage nutrition and fitness when they're at school.
Or even that the Dutch tend to be very tall and the BMI norms have not been adjusted.0 -
That's a fair point. The Lid Dems getting just 5% fewer votes than Labour at GE2010 yet 215 fewer seats was particularly cruel.Peter_the_Punter said:
To be honest, Fenster, I'm not sure how democratic a FPTP system can be.Fenster said:
If the Tories poll 36% (less than 1% down on 2010) after five years of austerity, that's a pretty good effort.FalseFlag said:I am not sure how the Cameroons will spin a result like that, economic fundamentals means they should be 2/3 points ahead. Unfortunately I fear the neocons like Osborne, Gove etc. will stay on.
Ed winning would certainly smash the Blairite consensus, for that be grateful.
Especially if UKIP poll over 10%, which looks likely.
UKIP look as though they will cost the Tories this GE. Democracy at work, whether anybody likes it or not.
It looks increasingly like an archaic system kept in place by Parties with a strong vested interest in maintaining the status quo.
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I do wonder whether the Tories and the press ended up setting such low expectations for Ed Miliband that a large proportion of the electorate ended up being pleasantly surprised when he managed to come across as a functioning human being.Daniel said:I wonder if the attempted character assassination of Ed Miliband has backfired; generated sympathy with the public and, some ways, might have benefited Labour.
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Cherchez les punters
Someone always knows, someone always tells0 -
Do we have Red LD's swinging back as well? Genuine question.chestnut said:
I think you may be misreading this.surbiton said:Nothing has changed in the last 36 hours or even two four weeks.
The only small difference that has been was recorded in the beginning of the campaign when the Great British public found out that Ed Miliband did not eat babies after all. There was a one-off jump and it has remained like that.
I think people that were flirting with the Greens and such like have suddenly realised that the Tories were winning and are swinging behind Ed and trying to shore up Labour.0 -
Bet fair lol....
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Martin Boon @martinboon 2m2 minutes ago
Turnout does look like it might return to 1990's levels. Upping my prediction to 72-74%. @ElectoralCommUK 10/10 in @guardian_clark poll 74%0
