politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB close the gap with Ipsos and get within 1% with Ashcrof
Comments
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Body image concerns are like a pendulum swinging from too-thin models to unchecked obesity. While there is an obesity problem, I'm not wholly convinced by some of the norms that are used, with regard to secular increases in size and maturity, and ethnic differences, but that is perhaps uninformed quibbling.JEO said:The WHO report today came out with some very concerning numbers about levels of obesity in the UK. Apparently, 64% of women and 75% of men will be overweight by 2030. That's a sad state to be in as a country. We really need to do a much better job of teaching children how to manage nutrition and fitness when they're at school.
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Ipsos (last 6)
Lab 34,36,34,35,30,35
Con 33,34,33,33,35,36
That was the one with the Lab VI retention number of 63%.0 -
Sun now shining in Derby North (just down the A52). I might even go and vote...AndreaParma_82 said:It is raining in Broxtowe.
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I voted about an hour ago and found polling station quieter than same time in 2010.
Solid Con seat FWIW.0 -
Lab most seats in from 6.0 to 5.2
Lab majority in from 250 to 120
Cameron PM after election in from 2.04 to 1.90
I still think Lab most seats is good value. It sounds like SLAB are increasingly confident they are going to hold seats in Scotland today and outperform expectations. If they do, surely Lab will win most seats and Red Ed gets into number 10.0 -
@PopulusPolls: Final Populus VI: Lab 33 (-1), Con 33 (-1), LD 10 (-), UKIP 14 (+1), Greens 5 (-), Others 5 (-). Tables here: http://t.co/IeoKmIK05j0
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It's #EdStone what won it.Casino_Royale said:
Yes, I think so. There's been a late move to Labour, not the Tories. Why on earth this has happened, I have no idea, but I doubt ICM would buck that trend.TGOHF said:
Sounds like a Lab ICM lead to me..TheScreamingEagles said:What a blinking tease
@guardian_clark: Watch this space for the final final ICM poll which I hope won't be too long coming, and provides one final twist @martinboon
Particularly not if the Guardian are tweeting it.0 -
Who?watford30 said:
Watch out for over excited posts from ickle 'pouter and his squirrel companion, since he's in on the poll result.dyedwoolie said:If ICM as it appears now show a Lab lead, it's only an additional 460 polled.... That would indicate a pretty massive shift if it affects headline figures!
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I thought Labour most seats was already at 4.5trublue said:Lab most seats in from 6.0 to 5.2
Lab majority in from 250 to 120
Cameron PM after election in from 2.04 to 1.90
I still think Lab most seats is good value. It sounds like SLAB are increasingly confident they are going to hold seats in Scotland today and outperform expectations. If they do, surely Lab will win most seats and Red Ed gets into number 10.0 -
Popcorn makers will do well in the next five years anyway...Fenster said:
But I'm very sanguine* about the result. I harbour none of the visceral, irrational hatred I had for Gordon Brown back in 2010 and given that I like following politics for the blood-sport, I think Ed Miliband would be very interesting viewing as PM.
I still can't imagine it, not even now, despite its likelihood.
Ed Miliband as PM! Ed Miliband meeting Putin and Obama, shaking hands with the Queen once a week and greeting diplomats at Chequers?
Ed Miliband whom even Damien Mcbride (his mate and colleague) disparages and admits can't make a decision for toffee.
This will be fun.
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Who knows? Maybe he'll be a bit "Thatcher-esque" (a lefty version of course). I think EICIPM will be successful, actually.Fenster said:I'm still thinking the Tories will be ahead by 10 seats.
But I'm very sanguine* about the result. I harbour none of the visceral, irrational hatred I had for Gordon Brown back in 2010 and given that I like following politics for the blood-sport, I think Ed Miliband would be very interesting viewing as PM.
I still can't imagine it, not even now, despite its likelihood.
Ed Miliband as PM! Ed Miliband meeting Putin and Obama, shaking hands with the Queen once a week and greeting diplomats at Chequers?
Ed Miliband whom even Damien Mcbride (his mate and colleague) disparages and admits can't make a decision for toffee.
This will be fun.
*It's easy to be sanguine in Wales. We have no money anyway - we just get it off the EU
I base this on the fact that noone ever thought he could win. And he nearly has. There's certainly a drive and determination there i've not yet seen in many other policitians. DC has been a bit of a damp squib, and never really knew what he wanted to do with the power once he'd got it.0 -
No late swing to Labour - just picking up that they were at worst tied all along.0
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That's not satire. My local UKIP candidate is a prime example of that. Except it was a person he wanted to shoot.Prodicus said:Ahem. Anecdotal argument against postal voting (Health warning: it's the Mash):
“Guess what, postal voters: I shot a load of zoo animals this morning, for no reason. And what are you going to do about it? Nothing, because you’ve already voted for me just to save yourself five minutes’ walk to a primary school.”0 -
I think Labour could clean up in London.Peter_the_Punter said:Quiet at the local polling booth in Wanstead.
Only two tellers, Con and Lab. A few posters in windows on the way, all Labour.0 -
Compouter2 - he obviously knows the ICM figures (as he did yesterday) and is more than content with them, so Lab lead. But does that matter much now?Purseybear said:
Who?watford30 said:
Watch out for over excited posts from ickle 'pouter and his squirrel companion, since he's in on the poll result.dyedwoolie said:If ICM as it appears now show a Lab lead, it's only an additional 460 polled.... That would indicate a pretty massive shift if it affects headline figures!
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Lessons will be learnt 2010.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/61164/administration-of-2010-uk-general-election.pdf
2015 - news article on foul ups by Hackney Council. Look on Twitter.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/angry-and-chaotic-scenes-in-london-borough-as-queues-grow-and-glitch-hits-voting-systems-10231555.html0 -
very funny speculation going on here. guess it passes the time 'til 10pm but its all idle fancy. the first hint of anything will be if the exit poll leaks around 9pm. if it doesn't then were all whistling in the wind until 10pm. No offence n' all that.0
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Lab 30 in Scottish Sub Sample, surge alert.TheScreamingEagles said:@PopulusPolls: Final Populus VI: Lab 33 (-1), Con 33 (-1), LD 10 (-), UKIP 14 (+1), Greens 5 (-), Others 5 (-). Tables here: http://t.co/IeoKmIK05j
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Where do you get that from? It sounds like Labour would be very happy with a handful of seats in Scotland.surbiton said:
I thought Labour most seats was already at 4.5trublue said:Lab most seats in from 6.0 to 5.2
Lab majority in from 250 to 120
Cameron PM after election in from 2.04 to 1.90
I still think Lab most seats is good value. It sounds like SLAB are increasingly confident they are going to hold seats in Scotland today and outperform expectations. If they do, surely Lab will win most seats and Red Ed gets into number 10.0 -
It will be all over the place. More important to look at Con most seat.surbiton said:
I thought Labour most seats was already at 4.5trublue said:Lab most seats in from 6.0 to 5.2
Lab majority in from 250 to 120
Cameron PM after election in from 2.04 to 1.90
I still think Lab most seats is good value. It sounds like SLAB are increasingly confident they are going to hold seats in Scotland today and outperform expectations. If they do, surely Lab will win most seats and Red Ed gets into number 10.0 -
Sunderland is about to declare their results0
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I really cant understand the betfair most seats market.
Despite all the evidence of a lot of polling in the past 24 hours that the parties are pretty much neck & neck and fairly convincing evidence of a firming up of the labour vote, there are still significant numbers of people prepared to give odds of over 4/1 against labour will having the most seats. I am happy to admit on the polling it is not clear who will come out with most seats, you can make the case either way. However that would suggest the odds for the tories & labour should be similar. I know that there is a thought that tory inclined voters are more inclined to bet than labour ones (I must admit to doing fairly well on the seats market last time as I was very confident labour would be 250+ and the spread market very much under priced labour) but this really makes very little sense.
Is there anyone on here who is offering 5.3 on labour having the most seats and if so could you explain your reasoning?0 -
Not much shift on the spreads for the coalition:
SPIN 316 (290+26)
SPRX 314 (288+26)
IG 316.5 (288+28.5)
Betfair aren't exactly comparable, but Tory over/under 287.5 is pretty much bang on equal.0 -
If I had listened to financial markets analysts the way some on here adhere to pollsters, I probably wouldn't be posting this from Barbados.
Great place to follow the results. Five hours behind, bbc 24 on tap, as much rum as I can drink. Oh and balcony overlooking Caribbean Sea.0 -
Apparently there's some confusion how Betfair may settle this market. So that may be affecting its price. Dave may not need to pass a queens speech to win on this market for example, he might just need to make an attempt to pass one to be considered PM after election.Schards said:As the polls move towards Labour, the Betfair odds on Cameron as PM continue to fall, now 1.86 from 2.64 about a week ago.
Very odd
I find the mosts seats price more bizarre. The polls and seats forecast projects are very, very close (and most of them expect SNP to win almost all the seats in Scotland - and I still doubt this will happen). How the Tories are priced 1.20-1.23 to win most seats at this stage is beyond me. I want to believe the prices are right, but I just don't see how it can be this short.0 -
How would he know them? Isn't it just a lucky guess?JohnO said:
Compouter2 - he obviously knows the ICM figures (as he did yesterday) and is more than content with them, so Lab lead. But does that matter much now?Purseybear said:
Who?watford30 said:
Watch out for over excited posts from ickle 'pouter and his squirrel companion, since he's in on the poll result.dyedwoolie said:If ICM as it appears now show a Lab lead, it's only an additional 460 polled.... That would indicate a pretty massive shift if it affects headline figures!
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No - I backed Labour Most Seats at 6.2 this morning.surbiton said:
I thought Labour most seats was already at 4.5trublue said:Lab most seats in from 6.0 to 5.2
Lab majority in from 250 to 120
Cameron PM after election in from 2.04 to 1.90
I still think Lab most seats is good value. It sounds like SLAB are increasingly confident they are going to hold seats in Scotland today and outperform expectations. If they do, surely Lab will win most seats and Red Ed gets into number 10.0 -
ah gotchaJohnO said:
Compouter2 - he obviously knows the ICM figures (as he did yesterday) and is more than content with them, so Lab lead. But does that matter much now?Purseybear said:
Who?watford30 said:
Watch out for over excited posts from ickle 'pouter and his squirrel companion, since he's in on the poll result.dyedwoolie said:If ICM as it appears now show a Lab lead, it's only an additional 460 polled.... That would indicate a pretty massive shift if it affects headline figures!
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SUN is shining for SNPAndreaParma_82 said:It is raining in Broxtowe.
Pic of East Midlands Labour MEP GOTV there
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEZd8PvW0AIdoae.jpg0 -
Nah, he'll be a disaster. Alex and Nicola will run rings round him and the whole thing will ultimately collapse in total acrimony and bitterness...Razedabode said:
Who knows? Maybe he'll be a bit "Thatcher-esque" (a lefty version of course). I think EICIPM will be successful, actually.Fenster said:I'm still thinking the Tories will be ahead by 10 seats.
But I'm very sanguine* about the result. I harbour none of the visceral, irrational hatred I had for Gordon Brown back in 2010 and given that I like following politics for the blood-sport, I think Ed Miliband would be very interesting viewing as PM.
I still can't imagine it, not even now, despite its likelihood.
Ed Miliband as PM! Ed Miliband meeting Putin and Obama, shaking hands with the Queen once a week and greeting diplomats at Chequers?
Ed Miliband whom even Damien Mcbride (his mate and colleague) disparages and admits can't make a decision for toffee.
This will be fun.
*It's easy to be sanguine in Wales. We have no money anyway - we just get it off the EU
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11 hours early!AndreaParma_82 said:Sunderland is about to declare their results
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If Scotland has not after all gone SNP en masse and the Tories are having a tougher time than expected south of the border, then let's not forget Ed could find himself with or close to a majority tomorrow. The momentum is with Labour not the Tories.
I thought whilst Cameron in his polling station photo was all smiles, Sam looked like death.
They know it's all over.0 -
The Netherlands are the only major European going the other way. Mostly down to 25% of journeys by cycling and less of a fast food culture. I was told by an Indonesian Dutch doctor at a conference that cycling lessons are part of the citizenship programme. Can't be Dutch if you cannot ride a bike!JEO said:The WHO report today came out with some very concerning numbers about levels of obesity in the UK. Apparently, 64% of women and 75% of men will be overweight by 2030. That's a sad state to be in as a country. We really need to do a much better job of teaching children how to manage nutrition and fitness when they're at school.
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they need to set a new record!Casino_Royale said:
11 hours early!AndreaParma_82 said:Sunderland is about to declare their results
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6 seats out of 41 does not sound like confident to metrublue said:Lab most seats in from 6.0 to 5.2
Lab majority in from 250 to 120
Cameron PM after election in from 2.04 to 1.90
I still think Lab most seats is good value. It sounds like SLAB are increasingly confident they are going to hold seats in Scotland today and outperform expectations. If they do, surely Lab will win most seats and Red Ed gets into number 10.0 -
Given the closeness, for the first time in a very long time every vote counts in every constituency - even safe ones. Winning most votes nationally will surely be a huge plus point if the seat tallies are close.
That said, I still can't see past a decent Tory seat lead; 30 looks about right.0 -
Don't say that. They'll all have them next time otherwise. Won't be able to move for them.DecrepitJohnL said:
It's #EdStone what won it.Casino_Royale said:
Yes, I think so. There's been a late move to Labour, not the Tories. Why on earth this has happened, I have no idea, but I doubt ICM would buck that trend.TGOHF said:
Sounds like a Lab ICM lead to me..TheScreamingEagles said:What a blinking tease
@guardian_clark: Watch this space for the final final ICM poll which I hope won't be too long coming, and provides one final twist @martinboon
Particularly not if the Guardian are tweeting it.0 -
LOL.Bob__Sykes said:then let's not forget Ed could find himself with or close to a majority tomorrow.
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Tough at the Toptaffys said:If I had listened to financial markets analysts the way some on here adhere to pollsters, I probably wouldn't be posting this from Barbados.
Great place to follow the results. Five hours behind, bbc 24 on tap, as much rum as I can drink. Oh and balcony overlooking Caribbean Sea.0 -
Election procedure question:
Chap in the office says his aunt is part of the counting team today. Apparently they receive boxes throughout the day which are opened and counted to 'spread the load'.
I thought that nothing could be opened until the polls had closed to prevent partial results influencing matters. Could there be locals which are handled differently?
Can someone clarify what happens? My (short) attempt at googling drew a blank.0 -
Surely if they knew it was all over they would be the other way round? Sam would get her life back.Bob__Sykes said:I thought whilst Cameron in his polling station photo was all smiles, Sam looked like death.
They know it's all over.0 -
Don't think anyone got my cryptic clue on the last thread. Rather pleased as I've since come up with a better anagram..
Scottish National Party is an anagram of "I train total sycophants"! 0 -
Works for the newspaper involved?Casino_Royale said:
How would he know them? Isn't it just a lucky guess?JohnO said:
Compouter2 - he obviously knows the ICM figures (as he did yesterday) and is more than content with them, so Lab lead. But does that matter much now?Purseybear said:
Who?watford30 said:
Watch out for over excited posts from ickle 'pouter and his squirrel companion, since he's in on the poll result.dyedwoolie said:If ICM as it appears now show a Lab lead, it's only an additional 460 polled.... That would indicate a pretty massive shift if it affects headline figures!
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One of the most stupid PR stunts not going down well with the twittersphere...
Disgruntled teenagers and twentysomethings have taken to Twitter today to air their disgruntlement at the withdrawal of access to Charmed and the Big Bang Theory.
http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/general-election-2015-but-i-want-to-watch-charmed-teenagers-moan-at-e4-shutdown-10231622.html0 -
We'll find out how effective the Conservative Party's electronic GOTV operation is. For the next 12 hours or so, I'm inclined to treat price movements as reflecting rumours rather than facts.surbiton said:
There has been no late swing.Scrapheap_as_was said:
if lab move ahead then the impression of a late swing but to Labour will be complete.TheScreamingEagles said:What a blinking tease
@guardian_clark: Watch this space for the final final ICM poll which I hope won't be too long coming, and provides one final twist @martinboon
what fun....
I thought the Question Time debate was a disaster ! The man can't eat a bacon sandwich. He knifed his brother in the back. Didn't he say the Labour Party "did not overspend".
Surely, there could not be any late swing to Labour. Could it ?
But it is noticeable that CCHQ messaging on Miliband has been self-contradictory: why should voters fear someone so inept at the art of bacon sandwich-eating? He can't be Stalin and Mr Bean.0 -
Very good! We don't have the final opinion poll yet, and the first declaration is less than 11 hours away.AndreaParma_82 said:Sunderland is about to declare their results
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@LadPolitics: A late surge in polls places a #Labour minority ahead... http://t.co/xxqOg4x5Or #GE2015 http://t.co/zogtRXvQQ10
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He was dropping very specific hints yesterday that suggest he knows. Also, previously he would do the same and pop up for certain polls.Casino_Royale said:
How would he know them? Isn't it just a lucky guess?JohnO said:
Compouter2 - he obviously knows the ICM figures (as he did yesterday) and is more than content with them, so Lab lead. But does that matter much now?Purseybear said:
Who?watford30 said:
Watch out for over excited posts from ickle 'pouter and his squirrel companion, since he's in on the poll result.dyedwoolie said:If ICM as it appears now show a Lab lead, it's only an additional 460 polled.... That would indicate a pretty massive shift if it affects headline figures!
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Yes, of course, it could be but my (wholly unprovable) surmise is that he does have access to polling information. Anyway, we shall find out soon enough.Casino_Royale said:
How would he know them? Isn't it just a lucky guess?JohnO said:
Compouter2 - he obviously knows the ICM figures (as he did yesterday) and is more than content with them, so Lab lead. But does that matter much now?Purseybear said:
Who?watford30 said:
Watch out for over excited posts from ickle 'pouter and his squirrel companion, since he's in on the poll result.dyedwoolie said:If ICM as it appears now show a Lab lead, it's only an additional 460 polled.... That would indicate a pretty massive shift if it affects headline figures!
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In homage to Avery, here's a yellow box with the latest forecasts from various academics/pundits, and a slection of PB regulars. Apologies for any mistakes (in a couple of cases I've had to guess the PC/Respect figures):
Con Lab LD UKIP SNP PC Resp Grn ======================================= rcs100 311 248 18 2 47 3 1 1 JackW 302 251 28 3 42 3 1 1 Richard Nabavi 295 258 22 3 48 3 1 1 Jonathan 295 270 20 2 40 4? 0 0 Rod Crosby 294 247 34 2 49 3 1 1 Southam Observer 290 251 27 3 55 3 1 1 Peter the Punter 284 264 25 3 50 1? 0? 2 Nick Palmer 271 280 24 2 50 3 0 1 antifrank 266 280 21 4 54 4 1 1 Stephen Fisher 285 262 25 3 53 3 1 1 Peter Kellner 283 261 32 2 50 3 0 1 Election Forecast 281 266 27 1 51 4 1 1 UKelect 274 275 26 2 50 3 0 1 May2015 273 268 28 2 56 3 1 1 Poll Observatory 271 273 24 2 55 3 0 10 -
I'm finding it hard to distinguish speculation from actual information here.watford30 said:
Works for the newspaper involved?Casino_Royale said:
How would he know them? Isn't it just a lucky guess?JohnO said:
Compouter2 - he obviously knows the ICM figures (as he did yesterday) and is more than content with them, so Lab lead. But does that matter much now?Purseybear said:
Who?watford30 said:
Watch out for over excited posts from ickle 'pouter and his squirrel companion, since he's in on the poll result.dyedwoolie said:If ICM as it appears now show a Lab lead, it's only an additional 460 polled.... That would indicate a pretty massive shift if it affects headline figures!
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Sam Cam looked fine - adjust your TV set.Bob__Sykes said:If Scotland has not after all gone SNP en masse and the Tories are having a tougher time than expected south of the border, then let's not forget Ed could find himself with or close to a majority tomorrow. The momentum is with Labour not the Tories.
I thought whilst Cameron in his polling station photo was all smiles, Sam looked like death.
They know it's all over.
Where was Mrs Farage?0 -
Dyed W
What if ICM have detected a last minute shift rightwards and are holding as long as possible so they can say they are the only firm to have picked up on this?
Still think it will be 35/34 or 33 in fav of Lab though
Any later and it'll be called an exit poll0 -
People watch Charmed ?!FrancisUrquhart said:One of the most stupid PR stunts not going down well with the twittersphere...
Disgruntled teenagers and twentysomethings have taken to Twitter today to air their disgruntlement at the withdrawal of access to Charmed and the Big Bang Theory.
http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/general-election-2015-but-i-want-to-watch-charmed-teenagers-moan-at-e4-shutdown-10231622.html0 -
LOL, you really are as bad as your posts. She does not exactly have much to do other than lounge about , spend money and leave it all to the servants. LOL.Scott_P said:
Surely if they knew it was all over they would be the other way round? Sam would get her life back.Bob__Sykes said:I thought whilst Cameron in his polling station photo was all smiles, Sam looked like death.
They know it's all over.0 -
Tbh, an ICM "final twist" sounds more like a Tory lead to me... another twist after the last 24 hours of a late Labour surge.0
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Well I can't explain it, JGC, but I will have a guess.JGC said:I really cant understand the betfair most seats market.
Despite all the evidence of a lot of polling in the past 24 hours that the parties are pretty much neck & neck and fairly convincing evidence of a firming up of the labour vote, there are still significant numbers of people prepared to give odds of over 4/1 against labour will having the most seats. I am happy to admit on the polling it is not clear who will come out with most seats, you can make the case either way. However that would suggest the odds for the tories & labour should be similar. I know that there is a thought that tory inclined voters are more inclined to bet than labour ones (I must admit to doing fairly well on the seats market last time as I was very confident labour would be 250+ and the spread market very much under priced labour) but this really makes very little sense.
Is there anyone on here who is offering 5.3 on labour having the most seats and if so could you explain your reasoning?
The market is being played by punters with little experience of political betting. They see the main Parties are virtually tied and think that with Labour losing 40 or so seats in Scotland that must make the Conservatives favorites for most seats.
Anyway, 5.3 is a daft price for Labour and I've been backing that judgement with hard-earned all morning.-1 -
No offence taken. It's just that unless all the polls - all of them - are not just wrong but wrong by a lot, then the eventual outcome is not in doubt, just the exact balance of it and how long it takes to get there, so that naturally starts the speculation early.Purseybear said:very funny speculation going on here. guess it passes the time 'til 10pm but its all idle fancy. the first hint of anything will be if the exit poll leaks around 9pm. if it doesn't then were all whistling in the wind until 10pm. No offence n' all that.
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You spent all your JSA and boredJonnyJimmy said:Don't think anyone got my cryptic clue on the last thread. Rather pleased as I've since come up with a better anagram..
Scottish National Party is an anagram of "I train total sycophants"!0 -
Is there a market on who will make a dramatic 3am intervention calling on Cameron to quit?
Dr Fox? Peter Bone? Lord Ashcroft?0 -
Something doesn't seem right to me when Labour voters are more likely to vote than Tories. They may say that but I thought it didn't quite work out like that in practice.0
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Wit
With a very gloomy husband.Scott_P said:
Surely if they knew it was all over they would be the other way round? Sam would get her life back.Bob__Sykes said:I thought whilst Cameron in his polling station photo was all smiles, Sam looked like death.
They know it's all over.0 -
@martinboon: @ICMResearch @guardian_clark very final: @Conservatives 34% @UKLabour 35% @UKIP 11% @LibDems 9% @TheGreenParty 4% @theSNP 5% PC 1% #GE20150
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This is all very entertaining. Is it normally like this on here on the election day? We're now basing the General Election result on whether the pm's wife smiled at 7am? Lovin it.Bob__Sykes said:
I thought whilst Cameron in his polling station photo was all smiles, Sam looked like death.
They know it's all over.
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Yep.TheScreamingEagles said:@martinboon: @ICMResearch @guardian_clark very final: @Conservatives 34% @UKLabour 35% @UKIP 11% @LibDems 9% @TheGreenParty 4% @theSNP 5% PC 1% #GE2015
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Or else Sam was quite looking forward to getting her life back and now she's got five more years ;-)Bob__Sykes said:If Scotland has not after all gone SNP en masse and the Tories are having a tougher time than expected south of the border, then let's not forget Ed could find himself with or close to a majority tomorrow. The momentum is with Labour not the Tories.
I thought whilst Cameron in his polling station photo was all smiles, Sam looked like death.
They know it's all over.0 -
Like.JonnyJimmy said:Don't think anyone got my cryptic clue on the last thread. Rather pleased as I've since come up with a better anagram..
Scottish National Party is an anagram of "I train total sycophants"!
Almost up there with the old: Ronald Wilson Reagan - Insane Anglo Warlord.
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Nabbers appearing quite tantric today ....Richard_Nabavi said:coming soon..
Will he last the night though ??
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Gold standard etc etc etc....Miliband 35% strategy looking good...could be an early night after all.TheScreamingEagles said:@martinboon: @ICMResearch @guardian_clark very final: @Conservatives 34% @UKLabour 35% @UKIP 11% @LibDems 9% @TheGreenParty 4% @theSNP 5% PC 1% #GE2015
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First Labour lead with ICM in four months. And on polling day too.TheScreamingEagles said:@martinboon: @ICMResearch @guardian_clark very final: @Conservatives 34% @UKLabour 35% @UKIP 11% @LibDems 9% @TheGreenParty 4% @theSNP 5% PC 1% #GE2015
Ed Miliband should comfortably form a government on UNS (with SNP support).
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I'm at work writing a cryptic crossword, one of the things I'm paid to do.malcolmg said:
You spent all your JSA and boredJonnyJimmy said:Don't think anyone got my cryptic clue on the last thread. Rather pleased as I've since come up with a better anagram..
Scottish National Party is an anagram of "I train total sycophants"!
Does your G stand for Garnett? You do seem to have many Alf-like traits...0 -
ICM - oh, for ... fffff
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@guardian_clark: ICM interesting detail 1 - the voters still expect the Tories to edge it - @martinboon's wisdom index Con 35, Lab 320
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Many bettors think the pollsters and pundits are a bunch of rank amateurs
Some are maybe city people used to watching highly qualified analysts spout rubbish on a daily basis0 -
@martinboon: Do I see any irony in @ICMResearch, the pioneer of 'shy tory' techniques being one of the few ending up with @UKLabour in the lead?0
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Hmmm no late late surge in ICM, but a slip back of one for the Tories. Different story again!0
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35% strategy pays off...TheScreamingEagles said:@martinboon: @ICMResearch @guardian_clark very final: @Conservatives 34% @UKLabour 35% @UKIP 11% @LibDems 9% @TheGreenParty 4% @theSNP 5% PC 1% #GE2015
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well does look like a nudge labours way doesn't it past 48 hours?TheScreamingEagles said:@martinboon: @ICMResearch @guardian_clark very final: @Conservatives 34% @UKLabour 35% @UKIP 11% @LibDems 9% @TheGreenParty 4% @theSNP 5% PC 1% #GE2015
Guess people just don't like voting for austerity. but sample of 450 might leave icm with egg on face.0 -
@martinboon: Nearly all polls pointing to Labour late swing. Didn't see that coming.0
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And it was only 450 sample, so a little bit naughty0
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@guardian_clark: ICM detail 2: In marginal battlegrounds where Con were 2% ahead in 2010, Lab has 11% lead today. Sub-samples, for sure, but not tiny ones0
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That ICM is truly terrible news for the Tories.0
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BBC auto-subtitling error: how could they get 'new' wrong?
"We've been showing nude pictures of the party leaders casting their votes."
And there was me thinking the ballot was meant to be private!0 -
Here is the write up...
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/07/labour-one-point-lead-tories-final-icm-poll
If they are correct on the seat projections, it looks like we will be in a very uncertain ride for the next years with constant horse trading.0 -
SNP 5% means that Lab is killing it in England & wales on those figures.TheScreamingEagles said:@martinboon: @ICMResearch @guardian_clark very final: @Conservatives 34% @UKLabour 35% @UKIP 11% @LibDems 9% @TheGreenParty 4% @theSNP 5% PC 1% #GE2015
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SamCam looking very Milfy today.0
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Or terrible news for ICM..Casino_Royale said:That ICM is truly terrible news for the Tories.
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Smash into Labour most seats then at 5.3, must be the best value in the history of betfairFenster said:
First Labour lead with ICM in four months. And on polling day too.TheScreamingEagles said:@martinboon: @ICMResearch @guardian_clark very final: @Conservatives 34% @UKLabour 35% @UKIP 11% @LibDems 9% @TheGreenParty 4% @theSNP 5% PC 1% #GE2015
Ed Miliband should comfortably form a government on UNS (with SNP support).0 -
She's Creative Director of Smythsons too. A more rewarding and high powered role than whatever factory work you do.malcolmg said:
LOL, you really are as bad as your posts. She does not exactly have much to do other than lounge about , spend money and leave it all to the servants. LOL.Scott_P said:
Surely if they knew it was all over they would be the other way round? Sam would get her life back.Bob__Sykes said:I thought whilst Cameron in his polling station photo was all smiles, Sam looked like death.
They know it's all over.0 -
Let's wait until we hear the contrary view from Hodges before we reach a firm conclusion.Casino_Royale said:That ICM is truly terrible news for the Tories.
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Chances of a Tory government down from 5% to 2% on the kle4 'didn't come up with a name or methodology' metric0
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On behalf of folk from S Essex & East London, I wish to register a formal complaint against that slur.JonnyJimmy said:
I'm at work writing a cryptic crossword, one of the things I'm paid to do.malcolmg said:
You spent all your JSA and boredJonnyJimmy said:Don't think anyone got my cryptic clue on the last thread. Rather pleased as I've since come up with a better anagram..
Scottish National Party is an anagram of "I train total sycophants"!
Does your G stand for Garnett? You do seem to have many Alf-like traits...0 -
If a guy wearing red shoes is arrested in West Yorkshire for abusing non Tory voters today, tonight's PB threads maybe a little delayed.0
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really? Joke poll then...dyedwoolie said:And it was only 450 sample, so a little bit naughty
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Me too, just seems oddPeter_the_Punter said:
Well I can't explain it, JGC, but I will have a guess.JGC said:I really cant understand the betfair most seats market.
Despite all the evidence of a lot of polling in the past 24 hours that the parties are pretty much neck & neck and fairly convincing evidence of a firming up of the labour vote, there are still significant numbers of people prepared to give odds of over 4/1 against labour will having the most seats. I am happy to admit on the polling it is not clear who will come out with most seats, you can make the case either way. However that would suggest the odds for the tories & labour should be similar. I know that there is a thought that tory inclined voters are more inclined to bet than labour ones (I must admit to doing fairly well on the seats market last time as I was very confident labour would be 250+ and the spread market very much under priced labour) but this really makes very little sense.
Is there anyone on here who is offering 5.3 on labour having the most seats and if so could you explain your reasoning?
The market is being played by punters with little experience of political betting. They see the main Parties are virtually tied and think that with Labour losing 40 or so seats in Scotland that must make the Conservatives favorites for most seats.
Anyway, 5.3 is a daft price for Labour and I've been backing that judgement with hard-earned all morning.0 -
Polls+swingback+incumbency+Ed is crap= massive Tory majority.
(or not) 0
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