FINAL FORECAST based on the Yougov 10000. England, Scotland and Wales separately calculated by UNS.
LAB 283 CON 271 SNP 52 LD 17 UKIP 3* PC 3 GRN 1 RES 1* SPK 1 NI 18 Total 650
* Only 4 seats were not calculated by UNS. Three have been manually adjusted for UKIP. Clacton, Thanet S from Con and Thurrock from Labour. One for Respect from Labour.
No other statistical adjustments have been done.
and, a very Good Morning to all !
Just to be clear this is SURBY's forecast not the official YouGov (which I think basically flips Con & Lab numbers above)?
Off to Istanbul for dinner, so play nicely while I'm away. Will be back tomorrow morning to pick up the pieces
That's a rather good idea. I'm expecting Twitter to be unreadable tonight - I follow about 200 political types and they'll be on overdrive - the kitten pix will have to take a back seat
Who knows? To be honest I've not given it much thought, since if, God forbid, we do end up with Ed Miliband in No 10, there will be much more important things to worry about than David Cameron.
In any case his place in history as one of the very best post-war PMs is already assured."
Have you ever thought about doing 'stand-up'?
There is a good chance that history will judge Cameron much better than Brown or Blair, at the very least. Holding together a coalition during the economic crisis was not easy. Blair had it easy with a large majority and will be stained by the wars, whilst Brown will be stained by the economic crash and Labour's tribal infighting, much of which he caused.
Major's reputation seems to have been rehabilitated since he left power. Blair and Brown's have both plummeted. Time will tell which way Cameron's will go: Richard might well be correct.
hmmm
I think Cameron will be judged by his own benchmark that he'd make a pretty good PM, whereas he's been pretty average.
Cameron always strikes me as someone who has underachieved his potential.
It's the politics he's not very good at. The 2010 election campaign, the 2015 campaign, the management of his own party, his own MPs, the positioning within the EU, selling his mission statement to the general public and triangulating his policy positions to try and demonstrate modernisation, and curry the most votes.
That's why he'll lose. In pure administrative terms, the competence of this government has been quite good - and much better than Labour - particularly on jobs, tax, economy, infrastructure, science, pensions, welfare and education reform.
Success in politics covers two dimensions: 1. The retail side. Getting elected, managing people, aligning factions, driving belief - basically the whole art of shaping opinion and putting yourself in a position to be able to deliver on your beliefs (assuming you have any in the first place); and 2. The managerial side. Delivering well and competently when in power. This means making the country a better place. It does not necessarily mean being able to force through a ruinous agenda.
Blair (and the Labour party generally) excel at 1. But suck harder than the vacuum of deep space at 2.
Dave (and the Tory party generally) are really very good at 2. But suck way more than is acceptable at 1.
Thus Blair and Dave are examples of potentially great but in fact deeply flawed politicians. The true political greats have strength in both dimensions.
Depends what you mean by "making the country a better place" among other things.
To paraphrase - QE2 would deliver Queen's Speech, even if it could be overturned the following week if the Tories failed to get enough backing from smaller parties.
It's a change to how they normally do this stuff apparently.
To paraphrase - QE2 would deliver Queen's Speech, even if it could be overturned the following week if the Tories failed to get enough backing from smaller parties.
It's a change to how they normally do this stuff apparently.
I have been saying since January at least that the markets are out of line with the polling and severely over estimating the Tory chances. If Sporting Index are carrying a substantial book based on their mid points I expect them to once again make a lot of money.
The final set of polls last night seemed to me to make the Conservatives being the largest party almost impossible and one simply has to apply the regional swings from Yougov to see how seats are going to fall.
...
I expect Cameron to have resigned by this time tomorrow.
But, but... How difficult is it to imagine 2010 in reverse? Then it was Labour incumbents who held on - this time it could be Tory incumbents who hold on. In 2010 the forecast was that 30% would give Labour less than 230 seats - they got 258. This time 34/35% might give the Tories 300 seats.
Take a look at these 17 seats. They're the difference between Labour getting 262 seats (losing) and getting 279 seats (winning). How confident are you that they will all fall? Brighton Kemptown, Pudsey, Northampton N, Halesowen, Bury N, Wirral W, Chester, Croydon C, Keighley, Cannock, Harrow E, Ealing C, Rossendale, Peterborough, Milton Keynes S, S Ribble, Finchley.
Off out later knocking up.I think the Tories have got it down here in Pembs, but still working hard to get the Labour vote out. Over last 48 hours felt people actually made up their minds.Better late than never I guess. Good luck to fellow canvassers.
Quite the opposite. She will NOT deliver a QS unless it's passage is secure via coalition, s and c or agreement to abstain
The Times can reveal that Buckingham Palace has had a change of heart in recent days and decided that Her Majesty will deliver the Queen’s Speech — which sets the agenda for her government — whatever the outcome of the election.
The palace had voiced fears that her reputation would be tarnished should Mr Cameron try to put forward a Queen’s Speech before he could guarantee the backing of enough MPs to govern. It had suggested that the Queen might stay away from the event, planned for May 27 in the House of Lords, in case the speech was voted down in the Commons.
Royal sources confirmed that she would lead proceedings, even if there was a risk that the speech would be overthrown the following week because the Tories had failed to muster enough backing from smaller parties.
I am now leaving this place to go to a place of electioning to cast my ballot. I shall pick up some tabs and return to report on turnout in Broadland at this unholy hour.
Who knows? To be honest I've not given it much thought, since if, God forbid, we do end up with Ed Miliband in No 10, there will be much more important things to worry about than David Cameron.
In any case his place in history as one of the very best post-war PMs is already assured."
Have you ever thought about doing 'stand-up'?
There is a good chance that history will judge Cameron much better than Brown or Blair, at the very least. Holding together a coalition during the economic crisis was not easy. Blair had it easy with a large majority and will be stained by the wars, whilst Brown will be stained by the economic crash and Labour's tribal infighting, much of which he caused.
Major's reputation seems to have been rehabilitated since he left power. Blair and Brown's have both plummeted. Time will tell which way Cameron's will go: Richard might well be correct.
I can't imagine his foreign policy as being regarded as anything but a complete disaster. Let's hope he resigns sooner rather than later but I doubt he has the integrity.
Yes, he did not follow Putin's every whim.
I can see why you might be upset about that.
Blair mkII, we all know whose orders he follows and it isn't the British interest. Don't like his obvious failings being highlighted, the destruction in the Middle East and North Africa are consequences my generation will have to live with for decades.
Quite the opposite. She will NOT deliver a QS unless it's passage is secure via coalition, s and c or agreement to abstain
The Times can reveal that Buckingham Palace has had a change of heart in recent days and decided that Her Majesty will deliver the Queen’s Speech — which sets the agenda for her government — whatever the outcome of the election.
The palace had voiced fears that her reputation would be tarnished should Mr Cameron try to put forward a Queen’s Speech before he could guarantee the backing of enough MPs to govern. It had suggested that the Queen might stay away from the event, planned for May 27 in the House of Lords, in case the speech was voted down in the Commons.
Royal sources confirmed that she would lead proceedings, even if there was a risk that the speech would be overthrown the following week because the Tories had failed to muster enough backing from smaller parties.
Has she gone mad?! Russian roulette with the constitutional make up of the nation.
I have been saying since January at least that the markets are out of line with the polling and severely over estimating the Tory chances. If Sporting Index are carrying a substantial book based on their mid points I expect them to once again make a lot of money.
The final set of polls last night seemed to me to make the Conservatives being the largest party almost impossible and one simply has to apply the regional swings from Yougov to see how seats are going to fall.
...
I expect Cameron to have resigned by this time tomorrow.
But, but... How difficult is it to imagine 2010 in reverse? Then it was Labour incumbents who held on - this time it could be Tory incumbents who hold on. In 2010 the forecast was that 30% would give Labour less than 230 seats - they got 258. This time 34/35% might give the Tories 300 seats.
Take a look at these 17 seats. They're the difference between Labour getting 262 seats (losing) and getting 279 seats (winning). How confident are you that they will all fall? Brighton Kemptown, Pudsey, Northampton N, Halesowen, Bury N, Wirral W, Chester, Croydon C, Keighley, Cannock, Harrow E, Ealing C, Rossendale, Peterborough, Milton Keynes S, S Ribble, Finchley.
The swings are too large. The tories needed to be at least 5% ahead in the polls to keep the swing down to something they could cope with. But the polls are basically showing support level. I still expect the tories to get the most votes but it is going to be far too close.
Has she gone mad?! Russian roulette with the constitutional make up of the nation.
Whitehall officials feared that the decision to stay away would in itself be a political act, since the Queen would effectively be prejudging the outcome of the vote by MPs. It would also break with precedent. In January 1924, George?V gave a King’s Speech shortly before the government was defeated.
Beautiful sunny morning here in London. The kind to make even the most apathetic mythical Labour dependent tear themselves away their 55" taxpayer funded 3D OLED TV and bother voting.
Quite the opposite. She will NOT deliver a QS unless it's passage is secure via coalition, s and c or agreement to abstain
The Times can reveal that Buckingham Palace has had a change of heart in recent days and decided that Her Majesty will deliver the Queen’s Speech — which sets the agenda for her government — whatever the outcome of the election.
The palace had voiced fears that her reputation would be tarnished should Mr Cameron try to put forward a Queen’s Speech before he could guarantee the backing of enough MPs to govern. It had suggested that the Queen might stay away from the event, planned for May 27 in the House of Lords, in case the speech was voted down in the Commons.
Royal sources confirmed that she would lead proceedings, even if there was a risk that the speech would be overthrown the following week because the Tories had failed to muster enough backing from smaller parties.
Has she gone mad?! Russian roulette with the constitutional make up of the nation.
I don't see the problem, if they don't like it parliament can do what they've done before amend the subsequent motion to say, "Lovely delivery, Your Majesty, and we totally appreciate you dropping by, but we respectfully submit that we think your government is a pile of pants".
Has she gone mad?! Russian roulette with the constitutional make up of the nation.
Whitehall officials feared that the decision to stay away would in itself be a political act, since the Queen would effectively be prejudging the outcome of the vote by MPs. It would also break with precedent. In January 1924, George?V gave a King’s Speech shortly before the government was defeated.
I dare say this is correct in theory, but in 2015 there's no way Cameron and Miliband will do this to HMQ.
I have been saying since January at least that the markets are out of line with the polling and severely over estimating the Tory chances. If Sporting Index are carrying a substantial book based on their mid points I expect them to once again make a lot of money.
The final set of polls last night seemed to me to make the Conservatives being the largest party almost impossible and one simply has to apply the regional swings from Yougov to see how seats are going to fall.
I have frankly not understood Tory party strategy at all. They have spent their time chasing a couple of dozen Lib Dem seats and not done nearly enough to fight the 50-60 seats they are going to lose to Labour today. It seems bizarre to me, particularly when their only chance of maintaining power was to go into a second coalition with the same Lib Dem party diminished by the loss of the seats they are chasing.
Only the disaster in Scotland is going to stop Ed having an overall majority today. I think Labour most seats is inevitable despite this. It frankly depresses me that firstly in the referendum and now in the GE such a large percentage of our population put so little weight on fiscal sanity, sound government, sound money and a recognition that the State has to be paid for. But that's the way it is and today the Tories are going to suffer the consequences. In Scotland of course the people in their wisdom have determined that Labour is not lunatic enough and have found something even more unrealistic.
I expect Cameron to have resigned by this time tomorrow.
For Dave, a day in Cornwall will always be an easier sell than tramping the pavements of suburbia just off The M1
To paraphrase - QE2 would deliver Queen's Speech, even if it could be overturned the following week if the Tories failed to get enough backing from smaller parties.
It's a change to how they normally do this stuff apparently.
Can anyone with Times access summarise their front page story "Queen to Take Control of Election Aftermath"?
I though she was staying as far away from the mess as possible, until the politicians had decided to behave like adults and tell her the outcome?
Wow, that's something of a change to what was expected. So basically, if Cons are largest party and there's no obvious coalition of the Left, expect Dave to dare everyone to vote down the Queen's Speech!
We had two polling stations down here with no one telling until yesterday. I took the more marginal of them. The weather is nice - mostly sunshine and odd showers so hoping not to get too wet or bored.
Best wishes to Nick Palmer and all others involved in today's events. I hope the day brings you whatever you desire and, if it doesn't, that you are not too downhearted.
I have no more idea than anyone else what the outcome will be but as a wild guess will go for
Best wishes to Nick Palmer and all others involved in today's events. I hope the day brings you whatever you desire and, if it doesn't, that you are not too downhearted.
I have no more idea than anyone else what the outcome will be but as a wild guess will go for
Vote cast in Broadland. Turnout steady, fun playing guess the allegiance with cute girl and crusty old duffers. Green to win, or at least chalk one up :-) Local election disappointing - pick 2 from 2 Tory, 2 lib and one kipper. great choice, thanks
Any ominous rumblings to cause concern that your ARSE may be in trouble, JackW?
Absolutely not.
My ARSE is looking especially resplendent this fine morning but also looking forward to a well earned sabbatical in warmer climes where the following phrase need not require any internal rationalization :
Best wishes to Nick Palmer and all others involved in today's events. I hope the day brings you whatever you desire and, if it doesn't, that you are not too downhearted.
I have no more idea than anyone else what the outcome will be but as a wild guess will go for
Who knows? To be honest I've not given it much thought, since if, God forbid, we do end up with Ed Miliband in No 10, there will be much more important things to worry about than David Cameron.
In any case his place in history as one of the very best post-war PMs is already assured."
Have you ever thought about doing 'stand-up'?
There is a good chance that history will judge Cameron much better than Brown or Blair, at the very least. Holding together a coalition during the economic crisis was not easy. Blair had it easy with a large majority and will be stained by the wars, whilst Brown will be stained by the economic crash and Labour's tribal infighting, much of which he caused.
Major's reputation seems to have been rehabilitated since he left power. Blair and Brown's have both plummeted. Time will tell which way Cameron's will go: Richard might well be correct.
The economic crisis was over, it was about managing the recovery.
Cheers for the article, Mr. Nutbrown. Although I do expect the SNP to top 50 seats, I don't think the index price is that much out of whack. Only a total clean sweep or sub-40 would be a surprise result at this stage.
If you believe the jockalypse cannot happen then Labour most seats is screaming value. Monstrous.
The SNP today looks like Labour in 1997. We Tories KNEW it was going to be bad. We just had a vain hope that it wouldn't be as horrendous as it turned out.
SLAB is as trashed today as the Tories were in 97. SNP to poll 50%+ and take at least 55 seats...
Voted in the first batch. Queues and a small fracas. All before 7:10am.
My polling station was busy at 7.25am this morning too, I had to queue and wait to get my ballot.
High turnout?
I think it was an extreme example but during the referendum the percentage that had voted did not change at all in Dundee between 12 and 8 and barely after that. I think people might be getting into the habit of voting early or using a postal vote.
Quite the opposite. She will NOT deliver a QS unless it's passage is secure via coalition, s and c or agreement to abstain
The Times can reveal that Buckingham Palace has had a change of heart in recent days and decided that Her Majesty will deliver the Queen’s Speech — which sets the agenda for her government — whatever the outcome of the election.
The palace had voiced fears that her reputation would be tarnished should Mr Cameron try to put forward a Queen’s Speech before he could guarantee the backing of enough MPs to govern. It had suggested that the Queen might stay away from the event, planned for May 27 in the House of Lords, in case the speech was voted down in the Commons.
Royal sources confirmed that she would lead proceedings, even if there was a risk that the speech would be overthrown the following week because the Tories had failed to muster enough backing from smaller parties.
Has she gone mad?! Russian roulette with the constitutional make up of the nation.
I don't see the problem, if they don't like it parliament can do what they've done before amend the subsequent motion to say, "Lovely delivery, Your Majesty, and we totally appreciate you dropping by, but we respectfully submit that we think your government is a pile of pants".
That would be a bit rude on Ed's first Queen's Speech.
I presume MORI, The Good Lord and ICM are late because they are trying to work out how the results can be that bad for the blues
I dont think there is any requirement to publish before 7.00. But after that Broadcasters cannot report the results. MORI have usually reported mid morning on election day for first edition of Evening Standard.
Quite the opposite. She will NOT deliver a QS unless it's passage is secure via coalition, s and c or agreement to abstain
The Times can reveal that Buckingham Palace has had a change of heart in recent days and decided that Her Majesty will deliver the Queen’s Speech — which sets the agenda for her government — whatever the outcome of the election.
The palace had voiced fears that her reputation would be tarnished should Mr Cameron try to put forward a Queen’s Speech before he could guarantee the backing of enough MPs to govern. It had suggested that the Queen might stay away from the event, planned for May 27 in the House of Lords, in case the speech was voted down in the Commons.
Royal sources confirmed that she would lead proceedings, even if there was a risk that the speech would be overthrown the following week because the Tories had failed to muster enough backing from smaller parties.
Has she gone mad?! Russian roulette with the constitutional make up of the nation.
I don't see the problem, if they don't like it parliament can do what they've done before amend the subsequent motion to say, "Lovely delivery, Your Majesty, and we totally appreciate you dropping by, but we respectfully submit that we think your government is a pile of pants".
That would be a bit rude on Ed's first Queen's Speech.
Voted in the first batch. Queues and a small fracas. All before 7:10am.
My polling station was busy at 7.25am this morning too, I had to queue and wait to get my ballot.
High turnout?
I think it was an extreme example but during the referendum the percentage that had voted did not change at all in Dundee between 12 and 8 and barely after that. I think people might be getting into the habit of voting early or using a postal vote.
Any ominous rumblings to cause concern that your ARSE may be in trouble, JackW?
Absolutely not.
My ARSE is looking especially resplendent this fine morning but also looking forward to a well earned sabbatical in warmer climes where the following phrase need not require any internal rationalization :
Nobody can say a bookie doesn't know how to make money, but the media comment has certainly assumed probability distributions that are ridiculously leptokurtic. Bettors have followed suit by staking so that bookies and betting exchanges are offering odds that imply the probability of a hung parliament is around 93%, which is far too high given the unknowns and their probable weight.
Any ominous rumblings to cause concern that your ARSE may be in trouble, JackW?
Absolutely not.
My ARSE is looking especially resplendent this fine morning but also looking forward to a well earned sabbatical in warmer climes where the following phrase need not require any internal rationalization :
"If so - very very wild off the wall guess here - might they announce that the UK will join the Euro??"
So you're going for the '45 minutes to save the pound' vote?
No - you will see that I have predicted that Labour will win handsomely, one of the few on here to do so. You will also know that I have indicated that I won't be voting Tory.
I was just speculating on what might be Labour's first major decision. The last Labour government introduced a bold measure, Ed Milliband has done something similar e.g. the energy policy announcement and I was wondering last night whether they might be doing so again and, if so, what that might be.
Whatever the economic consequences it might have some good political outcomes for him - or so he might think.
Any ominous rumblings to cause concern that your ARSE may be in trouble, JackW?
Absolutely not.
My ARSE is looking especially resplendent this fine morning but also looking forward to a well earned sabbatical in warmer climes where the following phrase need not require any internal rationalization :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
I am clinging to it ....
Jack's ARSE has given refuge to many.....
Too many perhaps ....
I may have to introduce an Australian points system for entry to my ARSE (copyright N Farage Esq)
Any ominous rumblings to cause concern that your ARSE may be in trouble, JackW?
Absolutely not.
My ARSE is looking especially resplendent this fine morning but also looking forward to a well earned sabbatical in warmer climes where the following phrase need not require any internal rationalization :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
I am clinging to it ....
Jack's ARSE has given refuge to many.....
Too many perhaps ....
I may have to introduce an Australian points system for entry to my ARSE (copyright N Farage Esq)
Higher likelihood of entry for those with special and rare skills or experience?
If so - very very wild off the wall guess here - might they announce that the UK will join the Euro??
It would keep the Lib Dems and SNP on side, would drive the Tories completely batshit crazy and would make Milliband the darling of the Eurocrats.
And on that note, off to vote and work.
One of the loaded spring guns left by the Coalition is the European Union Act 2011. Section 6(5)(e) provides that a decision to make the euro the currency of the United Kingdom must be approved by an Act of Parliament and a referendum. It should be noted however that the requirement for a referendum could be negated by a subsequent Act of Parliament. Furthermore, some academics have argued that this provision is inconsistent with EU law and is unenforceable in any event.
When Labour won in 1997 within 48 hours they announced - much to everyone's surprise - the independence of the Bank of England.
Might Labour do something similar?
If so - very very wild off the wall guess here - might they announce that the UK will join the Euro??
It would keep the Lib Dems and SNP on side, would drive the Tories completely batshit crazy and would make Milliband the darling of the Eurocrats.
He wouldn't dare do that, he would be eaten alive by all sides, including most of those who voted for him!
He would also have to repeal the law that the current government passed, that such matters should be referred directly to the electorate.
Well, since he's against having a Euro referendum I don't suppose that last bit would worry him t hat much.
He's likely - if he has the votes - to be more radical where he can then some may assume. He has said that he wants to reshape society rather than simply tinker with it. Joining the euro would do that, would put his main opponents off guard and would, in his view, solve the European question definitively.
If so - very very wild off the wall guess here - might they announce that the UK will join the Euro??
It would keep the Lib Dems and SNP on side, would drive the Tories completely batshit crazy and would make Milliband the darling of the Eurocrats.
And on that note, off to vote and work.
One of the loaded spring guns left by the Coalition is the European Union Act 2011. Section 6(5)(e) provides that a decision to make the euro the currency of the United Kingdom must be approved by an Act of Parliament and a referendum. It should be noted however that the requirement for a referendum could be negated by a subsequent Act of Parliament. Furthermore, some academics have argued that this provision is inconsistent with EU law and is unenforceable in any event.
Any overturning of that legislation and entry into the Euro when not a manifesto pledge would be catastrophic electorally. To do it as Grexit looms would compound the issue. Labour sub 100 seats in 2020 if he did that.
Comments
Off to Istanbul for dinner, so play nicely while I'm away. Will be back tomorrow morning to pick up the pieces
"Queen to Take Control of Election Aftermath"?
I though she was staying as far away from the mess as possible, until the politicians had decided to behave like adults and tell her the outcome?
Tory 41%, Labour 26% anybody?
2010 Newport East.
http://www.webarchive.org.uk/wayback/archive/20100513080200/http://www.dawnparry.com/
2015 Bristol West.
http://dawnparry.com/
It's a change to how they normally do this stuff apparently.
Take a look at these 17 seats. They're the difference between Labour getting 262 seats (losing) and getting 279 seats (winning). How confident are you that they will all fall? Brighton Kemptown, Pudsey, Northampton N, Halesowen, Bury N, Wirral W, Chester, Croydon C, Keighley, Cannock, Harrow E, Ealing C, Rossendale, Peterborough, Milton Keynes S, S Ribble, Finchley.
Over last 48 hours felt people actually made up their minds.Better late than never I guess.
Good luck to fellow canvassers.
The palace had voiced fears that her reputation would be tarnished should Mr Cameron try to put forward a Queen’s Speech before he could guarantee the backing of enough MPs to govern. It had suggested that the Queen might stay away from the event, planned for May 27 in the House of Lords, in case the speech was voted down in the Commons.
Royal sources confirmed that she would lead proceedings, even if there was a risk that the speech would be overthrown the following week because the Tories had failed to muster enough backing from smaller parties.
Beautiful sunny morning here in London. The kind to make even the most apathetic mythical Labour dependent tear themselves away their 55" taxpayer funded 3D OLED TV and bother voting.
[I wish I believed it]
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/03/10/antifrank-guest-slot-how-the-monarchy-might-suffer-in-the-post-election-scramble/
I'm quite proud of that.
where's hugh ferbie-withastall on his bike?
Is Crosby a PB Tory?
Anyway, lovely morning here is SW London and I can feel the winds of change blowing through...
As my voting pattern is inevitably go at about 2000 and have a pint afterwards it's no wonder I never get exit polled
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/596204238939783168
Exciting times ahead
I'm promised some calls later in the day and anything tasty, non actionable or barely interesting I will endeavour to pass along.
Good luck to all PB candidates and party workers today on what will I'm sure prove to a long and eventful 24 hours.
Best wishes to Nick Palmer and all others involved in today's events. I hope the day brings you whatever you desire and, if it doesn't, that you are not too downhearted.
I have no more idea than anyone else what the outcome will be but as a wild guess will go for
Labour: 300,
UKIP: 2,
Lib Dems: 25,
Northern Ireland: 18,
Others:3,
Speaker: 1,
SNP: 40 and
Cons: 259
When Labour won in 1997 within 48 hours they announced - much to everyone's surprise - the independence of the Bank of England.
Might Labour do something similar?
If so - very very wild off the wall guess here - might they announce that the UK will join the Euro??
It would keep the Lib Dems and SNP on side, would drive the Tories completely batshit crazy and would make Milliband the darling of the Eurocrats.
And on that note, off to vote and work.
If you believe the jockalypse cannot happen then Labour most seats is screaming value. Monstrous.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/596207952350060544
Local election disappointing - pick 2 from 2 Tory, 2 lib and one kipper. great choice, thanks
My ARSE is looking especially resplendent this fine morning but also looking forward to a well earned sabbatical in warmer climes where the following phrase need not require any internal rationalization :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
More likely they will toughen up the OBR to give them more credibility for their financial planning
How is Stockton South looking? I've no idea about the seat bar your posts.
Cheers for the article, Mr. Nutbrown. Although I do expect the SNP to top 50 seats, I don't think the index price is that much out of whack. Only a total clean sweep or sub-40 would be a surprise result at this stage.
Miss Cyclefree, you poker of hornet nests'!
My best wishes to all the foot soldiers out there.
He would also have to repeal the law that the current government passed, that such matters should be referred directly to the electorate.
High turnout?
In reality, though, the gap will be a little wider.
SLAB is as trashed today as the Tories were in 97. SNP to poll 50%+ and take at least 55 seats...
https://twitter.com/fpp2015/status/596207897794641921
"If so - very very wild off the wall guess here - might they announce that the UK will join the Euro??"
So you're going for the '45 minutes to save the pound' vote?
The lamp posts were devoid of boards, and there seemed to be no posters in the windows.
I agree it's possible, but I do think it's unlikely.
I must have missed your final ARSE. What was it?
I was just speculating on what might be Labour's first major decision. The last Labour government introduced a bold measure, Ed Milliband has done something similar e.g. the energy policy announcement and I was wondering last night whether they might be doing so again and, if so, what that might be.
Whatever the economic consequences it might have some good political outcomes for him - or so he might think.
I may have to introduce an Australian points system for entry to my ARSE (copyright N Farage Esq)
He's likely - if he has the votes - to be more radical where he can then some may assume. He has said that he wants to reshape society rather than simply tinker with it. Joining the euro would do that, would put his main opponents off guard and would, in his view, solve the European question definitively.