Go back to your constituencies and prepare for opposition ?
@patrickwintour: Former LD leader Lord Steel in any Libdem vote after election will oppose any further coalition - party should recharge batteries & values.
Yes because the whole point of a political party is to be out of power.
For many members or supporters of the Lib Dems (or former ones), that was precisely the purpose of that party: to be a 'nice' opposition and provide an alternative to the nasty and/or incompetent parties of government. Clearly the flaw in that purpose was that were it electorally successful it would inevitably undermine first the conditions necessary to bring it about (being in opposition) and then the rationale itself. But as long as the self-destruct button could be avoided, they ran with it and left the long term to take care of itself.
What the purpose of the Lib Dems is now, goodness only knows.
David Steel is no doubt influenced by his own experience following the 1976/78 Lib-Lab pact which led to a poor Liberal performance in the 1979 election. I feel he has become rather bitter and negative - a coalition would be better for the country than minority government, I think
We Lib Dems put country before party in 2010 . If as is likely we lose a number of seats because of it , then we will put party before country post today and there will be no Lib Dem coalition with either Labour or Conservatives
People realised you opposed the Iraq war for cynical electioneering reasons when you subsequently supported Libya and Syria. Getting what you deserve today.
The False Flag Guide to Foreign Affairs
Russian intervention in another country's affairs = good Western intervention in another country's affairs = bad
Just getting my head round the swings required. I think 2% would deprive the Tories of the possibility of a workable coalition, 3% would make Labour the largest party and able to form a govt with SNP support and 4% would be enough for a Lab-LD arrangement. Is that about right?
Fine margins anyway and it might not be able to jump to any conclusions from the Sunderland results...
Interesting that everyone's been talking about the polls in terms of convergence. Surely if you believe in this "phone polls are the ones that matter" thing, what we're seeing is actually late momentum?
"It's also discounting the possibility the polls are wrong, but wrong in labours favour.
Not likely (and rather unintuitive) - but it's probably only a little less likely than the reverse."
Looking at the final GE 2010 polls, if anything I feel you could make a case they very slightly over-estimated the Tory lead. What is the assumption of the underestimation of the Tory lead systematically by the polls and in the academic forecasts based on? Incumbency?
Shows how little activity down here is local election related - I didn't know there were any in Eastbourne today. I just looked them up and was Really??!
When I lived in Wealden - it was wall to wall placards in Polegate for the local candidates - that one tried to murder another is of course more gaiety for the nation.
It seems some of our more excitable Scottish friends are going to be out to make a nuisance of themselves again.
Scottish police have issued nationwide warnings amid fears of 'threatening behaviour' from firebrand SNP supporters.
According to the Guardian police and election officials have still sent out warnings to all of Scotland's 32 councils urging them to be aware to problems during voting and when the papers are transported.
Nationalists who believe that last year's referendum was rigged in favour of the 'No' campaign have urged people to photograph their votes.
The campaign, called Operation Scallop, has been widely shared across Facebook and Twitter because some SNP members fear their votes will be torn up, changed or not counted.
Organisers also say that supporters should vote in the last hour - between 9pm and 10pm - and then 'hang about outside' and 'take photos of anything suspicious' as the papers are loaded into vans.
They should then use their own transport to trail ballot boxes when they leave polling stations and follow them to the count and watch them being unloaded, it says.
Well if we have a Labour Government, the outlook for the increased revenues they need is not great according to this...
"Raising taxes to plug Britain’s deficit will not work, two founder members of the Bank of England’s panel that sets interest rates have warned." http://tinyurl.com/knhnrn9
It's cuts all the way (as expected in the next government, regardless of who wins).
"It's also discounting the possibility the polls are wrong, but wrong in labours favour.
Not likely (and rather unintuitive) - but it's probably only a little less likely than the reverse."
Looking at the final GE 2010 polls, if anything I feel you could make a case they very slightly over-estimated the Tory lead. What is the assumption of the underestimation of the Tory lead systematically by the polls and in the academic forecasts based on? Incumbency?
Go back to your constituencies and prepare for opposition ?
@patrickwintour: Former LD leader Lord Steel in any Libdem vote after election will oppose any further coalition - party should recharge batteries & values.
Yes because the whole point of a political party is to be out of power.
For many members or supporters of the Lib Dems (or former ones), that was precisely the purpose of that party: to be a 'nice' opposition and provide an alternative to the nasty and/or incompetent parties of government. Clearly the flaw in that purpose was that were it electorally successful it would inevitably undermine first the conditions necessary to bring it about (being in opposition) and then the rationale itself. But as long as the self-destruct button could be avoided, they ran with it and left the long term to take care of itself.
What the purpose of the Lib Dems is now, goodness only knows.
David Steel is no doubt influenced by his own experience following the 1976/78 Lib-Lab pact which led to a poor Liberal performance in the 1979 election. I feel he has become rather bitter and negative - a coalition would be better for the country than minority government, I think
We Lib Dems put country before party in 2010 . If as is likely we lose a number of seats because of it , then we will put party before country post today and there will be no Lib Dem coalition with either Labour or Conservatives
People realised you opposed the Iraq war for cynical electioneering reasons when you subsequently supported Libya and Syria. Getting what you deserve today.
The False Flag Guide to Foreign Affairs
Russian intervention in another country's affairs = good Western intervention in another country's affairs = bad
You forgot:
Anything bad that ever happened = probably the Jews
So after all that fuss about how horrid SNP influence would be, Ashcroft finds the voters would be substantially more miffed (a 10% gap) at a government relying on the DUP.
@oakeshottm: I've just voted in Vauxhall,only in local by-election. Lords, lunatics and prisoners-lots of overlap there!)can't vote in General Elections.
So after all that fuss about how horrid SNP influence would be, Ashcroft finds the voters would be substantially more miffed (a 10% gap) at a government relying on the DUP.
Yeah, I noticed that.
Pretty weird result. Do most people even know who the DUP are?
Well, I've voted. Conservative at the GE (I wasn't going to vote for a Lib Dem who could not even ensure his leaflets had correct spelling), and Labour for the local election.
The latter is the first time as far as I can recall)I've voted Labour. There were three candidates; the Green was a bit loony, and the Conservative is a man who had previously stood as an independent against a housing development in the area. I've had a run-in with him in the past, and he's utterly a one-issue idiot. It's sad the Conservatives chose him to stand, and even sadder that he'll be elected.
So really there was no choice in it: the Labour candidate was the best of a bad lot.
On other notes: the polling station was busier than I've seen here before (though I've only lived here four years), and a lady said they were much busier than usual.
There was a light plane flying overhead pulling a 'Better Conservative' banner. I'm not quite sure that that sort of trick is the best use of money ...
Any ominous rumblings to cause concern that your ARSE may be in trouble, JackW?
Absolutely not.
My ARSE is looking especially resplendent this fine morning but also looking forward to a well earned sabbatical in warmer climes where the following phrase need not require any internal rationalization :
Hmm, so prisoners can vote in locals? And Lords? How peculiar. I assumed Don't Have The Vote to apply to all elected offices. Can they do Euro ones too?
@oakeshottm: I've just voted in Vauxhall,only in local by-election. Lords, lunatics and prisoners-lots of overlap there!)can't vote in General Elections.
So after all that fuss about how horrid SNP influence would be, Ashcroft finds the voters would be substantially more miffed (a 10% gap) at a government relying on the DUP.
Jim Wells saying that children were more likely to be abused by same-sex parents and getting into an argument with a couple of lesbians was probably a timely reminder of the wonderful values DUP MPs bring to Westminster (not that huge numbers will have noticed).
George Eaton@georgeeaton·54 secs55 seconds ago Final YouGov, ICM and Ashcroft polls all have Labour and the Tories tied - not looking good for Cameron if correct.
Voted in Brentford and Isleworth; queued for 15 mins. I expect the Labour candidate to win, which is a shame as she's the sort of tedious socialist who "fought Fatcher" as a student radical.
Took the kids (6&8) who - I think - found it interesting. After explaining the counting processs my 8 year old asked why you could vote on a computer so it could add it all up instantly. That's my boy
Five candidates only (3 + UKIP + Green) which surprised me, usually there's a couple of nutters on there, too.
Well, I've voted. Conservative at the GE (I wasn't going to vote for a Lib Dem who could not even ensure his leaflets had correct spelling), and Labour for the local election.
The latter is the first time as far as I can recall)I've voted Labour. There were three candidates; the Green was a bit loony, and the Conservative is a man who had previously stood as an independent against a housing development in the area. I've had a run-in with him in the past, and he's utterly a one-issue idiot. It's sad the Conservatives chose him to stand, and even sadder that he'll be elected.
So really there was no choice in it: the Labour candidate was the best of a bad lot.
On other notes: the polling station was busier than I've seen here before (though I've only lived here four years), and a lady said they were much busier than usual.
There was a light plane flying overhead pulling a 'Better Conservative' banner. I'm not quite sure that that sort of trick is the best use of money ...
Well, there's always a surprise somewhere ..... I certainly never had you down as a Labour voter.
Go back to your constituencies and prepare for opposition ?
@patrickwintour: Former LD leader Lord Steel in any Libdem vote after election will oppose any further coalition - party should recharge batteries & values.
Yes because the whole point of a political party is to be out of power.
For many members or supporters of the Lib Dems (or former ones), that was precisely the purpose of that party: to be a 'nice' opposition and provide an alternative to the nasty and/or incompetent parties of government. Clearly the flaw in that purpose was that were it electorally successful it would inevitably undermine first the conditions necessary to bring it about (being in opposition) and then the rationale itself. But as long as the self-destruct button could be avoided, they ran with it and left the long term to take care of itself.
What the purpose of the Lib Dems is now, goodness only knows.
David Steel is no doubt influenced by his own experience following the 1976/78 Lib-Lab pact which led to a poor Liberal performance in the 1979 election. I feel he has become rather bitter and negative - a coalition would be better for the country than minority government, I think
We Lib Dems put country before party in 2010 . If as is likely we lose a number of seats because of it , then we will put party before country post today and there will be no Lib Dem coalition with either Labour or Conservatives
People realised you opposed the Iraq war for cynical electioneering reasons when you subsequently supported Libya and Syria. Getting what you deserve today.
The False Flag Guide to Foreign Affairs
Russian intervention in another country's affairs = good Western intervention in another country's affairs = bad
I am concerned about my own country's affairs not others.
Your obsession with me is beginning to concern me, long given up on facts and debate, more adolescent name calling. Your twice my age too.
1992: whichever constituency South Woodford is in 1997: South Derbyshire. 2002: South East Cambridgeshire 2005: Missed due to being out walking, but would have been South Cambridgeshire 2010: Romsey and Southampton North 2015: South Cambridgeshire
So 5 different constituencies in six general elections.
Hmm, so prisoners can vote in locals? And Lords? How peculiar. I assumed Don't Have The Vote to apply to all elected offices. Can they do Euro ones too?
@oakeshottm: I've just voted in Vauxhall,only in local by-election. Lords, lunatics and prisoners-lots of overlap there!)can't vote in General Elections.
I dont think thats what he said, just that they can't vote in generals
In 2002, I lived in OXWAB and voted in the Jericho & Osney ward in the Oxford City Council local elections. At that time, I voted Liberal Democrat. I was one of 219 voters who voted for ... Well, you can find the name of the candidate I voted for by scrolling down this wikipedia page to Jericho & Osney: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford_City_Council_election,_2002
Feb 74 Twickenham Oct 74 Twickenham 1979 Oxford 1983 Oxford West 1987 Oxford West 1992 Chertsey and Walton 1997 Chertsey and Walton 2001 Chertsey and Walton 2005 Chertsey and Walton 2010 Esher and Walton 2015 Esher and Walton
Well, I've voted. Conservative at the GE (I wasn't going to vote for a Lib Dem who could not even ensure his leaflets had correct spelling), and Labour for the local election.
The latter is the first time as far as I can recall)I've voted Labour. There were three candidates; the Green was a bit loony, and the Conservative is a man who had previously stood as an independent against a housing development in the area. I've had a run-in with him in the past, and he's utterly a one-issue idiot. It's sad the Conservatives chose him to stand, and even sadder that he'll be elected.
So really there was no choice in it: the Labour candidate was the best of a bad lot.
On other notes: the polling station was busier than I've seen here before (though I've only lived here four years), and a lady said they were much busier than usual.
There was a light plane flying overhead pulling a 'Better Conservative' banner. I'm not quite sure that that sort of trick is the best use of money ...
Well, there's always a surprise somewhere ..... I certainly never had you down as a Labour voter.
Go back to your constituencies and prepare for opposition ?
@patrickwintour: Former LD leader Lord Steel in any Libdem vote after election will oppose any further coalition - party should recharge batteries & values.
Yes because the whole point of a political party is to be out of power.
For many members or supporters of the Lib Dems (or former ones), that was precisely the purpose of that party: to be a 'nice' opposition and provide an alternative to the nasty and/or incompetent parties of government. Clearly the flaw in that purpose was that were it electorally successful it would inevitably undermine first the conditions necessary to bring it about (being in opposition) and then the rationale itself. But as long as the self-destruct button could be avoided, they ran with it and left the long term to take care of itself.
What the purpose of the Lib Dems is now, goodness only knows.
David Steel is no doubt influenced by his own experience following the 1976/78 Lib-Lab pact which led to a poor Liberal performance in the 1979 election. I feel he has become rather bitter and negative - a coalition would be better for the country than minority government, I think
We Lib Dems put country before party in 2010 . If as is likely we lose a number of seats because of it , then we will put party before country post today and there will be no Lib Dem coalition with either Labour or Conservatives
People realised you opposed the Iraq war for cynical electioneering reasons when you subsequently supported Libya and Syria. Getting what you deserve today.
The False Flag Guide to Foreign Affairs
Russian intervention in another country's affairs = good Western intervention in another country's affairs = bad
I am concerned about my own country's affairs not others.
Your obsession with me is beginning to concern me, long given up on facts and debate, more adolescent name calling. Your twice my age too.
And I know the difference between "your" and "you're"
Hmm, so prisoners can vote in locals? And Lords? How peculiar. I assumed Don't Have The Vote to apply to all elected offices. Can they do Euro ones too?
Peers are disqualified from the parliamentary franchise on the ground that they have separate parliamentary representation from commoners, viz. the House of Lords. So if you are a peer in receipt of a writ of summons, you cannot vote in a parliamentary election. You can however vote in local government elections and referenda.
Prisoners detained under sentence or unlawfully at large cannot vote in either parliamentary or local government elections (see section 3(1) of the 1983 Act), and, as the franchise for referenda is usually based on the latter, cannot vote in referenda either. Prisoners have no right to vote in European elections either (R (Chester) v Secretary of State for Justice [2014] AC 271 (SC)).
Teh pollsters seem to think there is safety in numbers..
It does seem extraordinary to me that the variation that was previously present has suddenly disappeared. It could be just chance, but I wonder if anyone has any theory as to why this might have happened?
Well, I've voted. Conservative at the GE (I wasn't going to vote for a Lib Dem who could not even ensure his leaflets had correct spelling), and Labour for the local election.
The latter is the first time as far as I can recall)I've voted Labour. There were three candidates; the Green was a bit loony, and the Conservative is a man who had previously stood as an independent against a housing development in the area. I've had a run-in with him in the past, and he's utterly a one-issue idiot. It's sad the Conservatives chose him to stand, and even sadder that he'll be elected.
So really there was no choice in it: the Labour candidate was the best of a bad lot.
On other notes: the polling station was busier than I've seen here before (though I've only lived here four years), and a lady said they were much busier than usual.
There was a light plane flying overhead pulling a 'Better Conservative' banner. I'm not quite sure that that sort of trick is the best use of money ...
Well, there's always a surprise somewhere ..... I certainly never had you down as a Labour voter.
I've always said I vote for a candidate. So far in my relatively short electoral career I've voted Conservative, Lib Dem, Indy, Green, and now Labour. And probably in that order of frequency.
It was pretty much Hobson's Choice in the locals for me. I put my cross in the box of the best candidate.
Historically, do pollsters tend to converge on the eve of an election? It doesn't seem too fantastical to me- by this point, almost everyone will either not be voting or be certain who they'll vote for, so the issue of reallocating undecideds becomes much less important.
Though it'd be interesting to see if the numbers back up that theory.
Price on the Conservatives winning most seats looks even more poor. I've had to back Labour at just shy of 5/1. Desperately hope that is a losing bet, but it's definitely the value given the polls, weather and expectations of higher than average turnout.
So after all that fuss about how horrid SNP influence would be, Ashcroft finds the voters would be substantially more miffed (a 10% gap) at a government relying on the DUP.
Jim Wells saying that children were more likely to be abused by same-sex parents and getting into an argument with a couple of lesbians was probably a timely reminder of the wonderful values DUP MPs bring to Westminster (not that huge numbers will have noticed).
Teh pollsters seem to think there is safety in numbers..
It does seem extraordinary to me that the variation that was previously present has suddenly disappeared. It could be just chance, but I wonder if anyone has any theory as to why this might have happened?
Teh pollsters seem to think there is safety in numbers..
It does seem extraordinary to me that the variation that was previously present has suddenly disappeared. It could be just chance, but I wonder if anyone has any theory as to why this might have happened?
I'm sure there will be many theories, just not sure it is wise to announce them on PB
Saw another Scottish Labour poster today, swingback.
I have to say after the explosion of Flags and signs that met me when I stepped out to vote in the Indyref today has been incredibly low key. I will, however, never get tired of voting.
Go back to your constituencies and prepare for opposition ?
@patrickwintour: Former LD leader Lord Steel in any Libdem vote after election will oppose any further coalition - party should recharge batteries & values.
Yes because the whole point of a political party is to be out of power.
For many members or supporters of the Lib Dems (or former ones), that was precisely the purpose of that party: to be a 'nice' opposition and provide an alternative to the nasty and/or incompetent parties of government. Clearly the flaw in that purpose was that were it electorally successful it would inevitably undermine first the conditions necessary to bring it about (being in opposition) and then the rationale itself. But as long as the self-destruct button could be avoided, they ran with it and left the long term to take care of itself.
What the purpose of the Lib Dems is now, goodness only knows.
David Steel is no doubt influenced by his own experience following the 1976/78 Lib-Lab pact which led to a poor Liberal performance in the 1979 election. I feel he has become rather bitter and negative - a coalition would be better for the country than minority government, I think
We Lib Dems put country before party in 2010 . If as is likely we lose a number of seats because of it , then we will put party before country post today and there will be no Lib Dem coalition with either Labour or Conservatives
People realised you opposed the Iraq war for cynical electioneering reasons when you subsequently supported Libya and Syria. Getting what you deserve today.
The False Flag Guide to Foreign Affairs
Russian intervention in another country's affairs = good Western intervention in another country's affairs = bad
I am concerned about my own country's affairs not others.
Your obsession with me is beginning to concern me, long given up on facts and debate, more adolescent name calling. Your twice my age too.
And I know the difference between "your" and "you're"
Well, phone pollsters appear to be picking up a trend of increased Labour certainty (their vote is not going up at the expense of the Tories who are also up) - if this is the case it should mean the late ICM data puts Lab a point ahead or so and MORI see a sharp swing back of the large lead. If those two things happen, I think we can start to Hoover up on the spreads and betting!
So after all that fuss about how horrid SNP influence would be, Ashcroft finds the voters would be substantially more miffed (a 10% gap) at a government relying on the DUP.
Jim Wells saying that children were more likely to be abused by same-sex parents and getting into an argument with a couple of lesbians was probably a timely reminder of the wonderful values DUP MPs bring to Westminster (not that huge numbers will have noticed).
1992: whichever constituency South Woodford is in 1997: South Derbyshire. 2002: South East Cambridgeshire 2005: Missed due to being out walking, but would have been South Cambridgeshire 2010: Romsey and Southampton North 2015: South Cambridgeshire
So 5 different constituencies in six general elections.
So after all that fuss about how horrid SNP influence would be, Ashcroft finds the voters would be substantially more miffed (a 10% gap) at a government relying on the DUP.
Jim Wells saying that children were more likely to be abused by same-sex parents and getting into an argument with a couple of lesbians was probably a timely reminder of the wonderful values DUP MPs bring to Westminster (not that huge numbers will have noticed).
One of the mysteries of this campaign is the Tories re-running the "Are you thinking what we're thinking" campaign albeit from a slightly different angle. "If you dislike the Nats as much as we do don't vote Labour"
It remains to be seen whether it'll work this time but it was certainly an odd decision.
So after all that fuss about how horrid SNP influence would be, Ashcroft finds the voters would be substantially more miffed (a 10% gap) at a government relying on the DUP.
Jim Wells saying that children were more likely to be abused by same-sex parents and getting into an argument with a couple of lesbians was probably a timely reminder of the wonderful values DUP MPs bring to Westminster (not that huge numbers will have noticed).
What will be fascinating if the result is tight will be what happens to UNS - logic says the rise of UKIP and the decline of the Lib Dems should increase the efficiency of Tory voting and decrease the Labour efficiency, but will that play out? One thing looks clear ATM - by Monday EICIPM
Historically, do pollsters tend to converge on the eve of an election? It doesn't seem too fantastical to me- by this point, almost everyone will either not be voting or be certain who they'll vote for, so the issue of reallocating undecideds becomes much less important.
Though it'd be interesting to see if the numbers back up that theory.
It's incredible that they've almost all converged to a tie in the last 36 hours. That seems fantastical after months of deviation.
This 'herding' actually concerns me. safety in numbers, not being the one company to, well, call it wrong.
If you're two out from +1 to -1, that looks far worse than from 0 to either +/- 2.
It's seems natural to me for the numbers to converge on the eve of polling as more and more people make up their minds. Of course the only glimmer of light for the Tories is that even today there are hundreds of thousands of people who still don't know who to vote for
It seems some of our more excitable Scottish friends are going to be out to make a nuisance of themselves again.
Scottish police have issued nationwide warnings amid fears of 'threatening behaviour' from firebrand SNP supporters.
According to the Guardian police and election officials have still sent out warnings to all of Scotland's 32 councils urging them to be aware to problems during voting and when the papers are transported.
Nationalists who believe that last year's referendum was rigged in favour of the 'No' campaign have urged people to photograph their votes.
The campaign, called Operation Scallop, has been widely shared across Facebook and Twitter because some SNP members fear their votes will be torn up, changed or not counted.
Organisers also say that supporters should vote in the last hour - between 9pm and 10pm - and then 'hang about outside' and 'take photos of anything suspicious' as the papers are loaded into vans.
They should then use their own transport to trail ballot boxes when they leave polling stations and follow them to the count and watch them being unloaded, it says.
Who knows? To be honest I've not given it much thought, since if, God forbid, we do end up with Ed Miliband in No 10, there will be much more important things to worry about than David Cameron.
In any case his place in history as one of the very best post-war PMs is already assured."
Have you ever thought about doing 'stand-up'?
There is a good chance that history will judge Cameron much better than Brown or Blair, at the very least. Holding together a coalition during the economic crisis was not easy. Blair had it easy with a large majority and will be stained by the wars, whilst Brown will be stained by the economic crash and Labour's tribal infighting, much of which he caused.
Major's reputation seems to have been rehabilitated since he left power. Blair and Brown's have both plummeted. Time will tell which way Cameron's will go: Richard might well be correct.
I wouldn't call this Government great, but it has been pretty good overall.
Historically, do pollsters tend to converge on the eve of an election? It doesn't seem too fantastical to me- by this point, almost everyone will either not be voting or be certain who they'll vote for, so the issue of reallocating undecideds becomes much less important.
Though it'd be interesting to see if the numbers back up that theory.
It's incredible that they've almost all converged to a tie in the last 36 hours. That seems fantastical after months of deviation.
This 'herding' actually concerns me. safety in numbers, not being the one company to, well, call it wrong.
If you're two out from +1 to -1, that looks far worse than from 0 to either +/- 2.
It's seems natural to me for the numbers to converge on the eve of polling as more and more people make up their minds. Of course the only glimmer of light for the Tories is that even today there are hundreds of thousands of people who still don't know to vote for
Tories have been relying on outperforming the polls for the last two months, nothing's changed. Just a question of whether you think that's valid or not.
Interesting article here, though its analysis is still very much effectively through the UNS prism and doesn't in my opinion give sufficient weight to the changes since 2010 that the rise of UKIP and the SNP have brought. Still, food for thought.
In my calculations, now largely based on that article, I am counting SNP as equiv to LAB for stats/betting purposes, and re. likelihood of Dave or Ed being PM. That of course disregards minor parties (small beer, I think, on the cosmic scale) and leaves aside entirely the constitutional niceties post GE.
Having said which, I favour a working CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY the more I think about it. Mock if you like.
A propos (as must be obvs) I have abandoned the polls, the final straw being that 34.1 tie (king ridiculous) and the clustering around it. Credibility zero from that point on.
I am also musing that post GE it may be that talk of a new multiparty landscape will evaporate like, erm, Scotch mist. Mass disengagement by a politically hoodwinked, ill-informed, Gramsci-ed electorate, however, will abide.
Voted Tory every time but never backed a winner. That is highly unlikely to change today.
Cameron's last full day as PM then. I always felt he would stifle UKIP and be in with a chance of a majority. Even as someone who has bemoaned his idleness, he has failed to meet even the low expectations I had for him. I concur with every word of DavidL's excellent post earlier.
Good riddance to Dave. There will be open warfare in the Tory Party tonight from 10.01pm so there should be plenty to keep the pundits occupied until the results start coming in.
1997 - Did not vote as on year abroad. However there is the possibility that my vote was cast by my twin brother in Warrington North 2001 - Bradford West 2005 - Aldridge and Brownhills 2010 - Aldridge and Brownhills 2015 - Thornbury and Yate
Comments
Got recognised by a candidate (shan't say whom) which rather surprised me.
1992: Colchester
1997: Banff & Buchen
2001: Hampshire NE (I think)
2005: Maidenhead
2010: Uxbridge
2015: Wantage
Russian intervention in another country's affairs = good
Western intervention in another country's affairs = bad
33 33 10 LD 11 Kip 6 Grn
Final Ashcroft National Poll, 3k sample, 5-6 May: CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 11%, GRN 6%.
Not likely (and rather unintuitive) - but it's probably only a little less likely than the reverse."
Looking at the final GE 2010 polls, if anything I feel you could make a case they very slightly over-estimated the Tory lead. What is the assumption of the underestimation of the Tory lead systematically by the polls and in the academic forecasts based on? Incumbency?
And the cybernats becmoe the cybernuts...
Final Ashcroft National Poll, 3k sample, 5-6 May: CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 11%, GRN 6%.
47 retweets 8 favorites
In 2002, I lived in OXWAB and voted in the Jericho & Osney ward in the Oxford City Council local elections.
At that time, I voted Liberal Democrat. I was one of 219 voters who voted for ...
Well, you can find the name of the candidate I voted for by scrolling down this wikipedia page to Jericho & Osney:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford_City_Council_election,_2002
Party .................. JackW .............. RodCrosby
Con .................... 302 .................... 294
Lab ..................... 251 .................... 247
LibDem ................ 28 ...................... 34
SNP ...................... 42 ...................... 49
N.I. ...................... 18 ....................... 18
Plaid C ................... 3 ........................ 3
UKIP ...................... 3 ......................... 2
Others ................... 2 ......................... 2
Speaker ................. 1 ......................... 1
Total ................. 650 ..................... 650
Lab 275-300 @ 3/1 interesting.
We will get the government we deserve.
Anything bad that ever happened = probably the Jews
Or are polls only worth the wait when they show a CON lead?
*another 12hrs of this to go*
@oakeshottm: I've just voted in Vauxhall,only in local by-election. Lords, lunatics and prisoners-lots of overlap there!)can't vote in General Elections.
1979 - Durham
1983 - Edgbaston
1987 - Yardley
1992/1997 - Reading West
2001/2010 - Wantage
2015 - Totnes
Just missed out on voting in Dulwich in 1992....
Pretty weird result. Do most people even know who the DUP are?
The latter is the first time as far as I can recall)I've voted Labour. There were three candidates; the Green was a bit loony, and the Conservative is a man who had previously stood as an independent against a housing development in the area. I've had a run-in with him in the past, and he's utterly a one-issue idiot. It's sad the Conservatives chose him to stand, and even sadder that he'll be elected.
So really there was no choice in it: the Labour candidate was the best of a bad lot.
On other notes: the polling station was busier than I've seen here before (though I've only lived here four years), and a lady said they were much busier than usual.
There was a light plane flying overhead pulling a 'Better Conservative' banner. I'm not quite sure that that sort of trick is the best use of money ...
2001 - Kensington and Chelsea
2005 - K&C
2010 - Tatton
2012 - Manchester Central
2015 - Sheffield Hallam
Which reminds me... http://funnyasduck.net/post/12233
I was hoping to update it with the last polls this morning (actually expecting a slight move back to the Conservatives). Where are they?
George Eaton@georgeeaton·54 secs55 seconds ago
Final YouGov, ICM and Ashcroft polls all have Labour and the Tories tied - not looking good for Cameron if correct.
Took the kids (6&8) who - I think - found it interesting. After explaining the counting processs my 8 year old asked why you could vote on a computer so it could add it all up instantly. That's my boy
Five candidates only (3 + UKIP + Green) which surprised me, usually there's a couple of nutters on there, too.
Your obsession with me is beginning to concern me, long given up on facts and debate, more adolescent name calling. Your twice my age too.
1997: South Derbyshire.
2002: South East Cambridgeshire
2005: Missed due to being out walking, but would have been South Cambridgeshire
2010: Romsey and Southampton North
2015: South Cambridgeshire
So 5 different constituencies in six general elections.
Oct 74 Twickenham
1979 Oxford
1983 Oxford West
1987 Oxford West
1992 Chertsey and Walton
1997 Chertsey and Walton
2001 Chertsey and Walton
2005 Chertsey and Walton
2010 Esher and Walton
2015 Esher and Walton
Safety in numbers for pollsters?
I'm so obsessed with opinion polls that I've forgotten to vote...
Still time though!
Prisoners detained under sentence or unlawfully at large cannot vote in either parliamentary or local government elections (see section 3(1) of the 1983 Act), and, as the franchise for referenda is usually based on the latter, cannot vote in referenda either. Prisoners have no right to vote in European elections either (R (Chester) v Secretary of State for Justice [2014] AC 271 (SC)).
If you're two out from +1 to -1, that looks far worse than from 0 to either +/- 2.
It was pretty much Hobson's Choice in the locals for me. I put my cross in the box of the best candidate.
Though it'd be interesting to see if the numbers back up that theory.
I have to say after the explosion of Flags and signs that met me when I stepped out to vote in the Indyref today has been incredibly low key. I will, however, never get tired of voting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mBVY_QoLTc
Or they haven't got a Scooby how to model 7 party politics, and are huddling together in the darkness.
12 hours until the exit poll sheds some light....
It remains to be seen whether it'll work this time but it was certainly an odd decision.
Don't worry though, I stayed blue in the locals
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/child-abuse-in-russia-is-routine/473633.html
One thing looks clear ATM - by Monday EICIPM
2015: Leyton and Wansted
Until today, I'd voted in a national referendum, all sorts of local elections, and European elections.
The BBC suggested that a fair proportion of Scottish police have been bearing firearms on traffic duties.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-28656324
Clegg as well as Cameron deserve praise for that.
Having said which, I favour a working CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY the more I think about it. Mock if you like.
A propos (as must be obvs) I have abandoned the polls, the final straw being that 34.1 tie (king ridiculous) and the clustering around it. Credibility zero from that point on.
I am also musing that post GE it may be that talk of a new multiparty landscape will evaporate like, erm, Scotch mist. Mass disengagement by a politically hoodwinked, ill-informed, Gramsci-ed electorate, however, will abide.
Is VE day celebrated much there btw?
01/05/10 - Burnley
15 - Bury South
Voted Tory every time but never backed a winner. That is highly unlikely to change today.
Cameron's last full day as PM then. I always felt he would stifle UKIP and be in with a chance of a majority. Even as someone who has bemoaned his idleness, he has failed to meet even the low expectations I had for him. I concur with every word of DavidL's excellent post earlier.
Good riddance to Dave. There will be open warfare in the Tory Party tonight from 10.01pm so there should be plenty to keep the pundits occupied until the results start coming in.
I am very depressed about how this has all ended.
2001 - Bradford West
2005 - Aldridge and Brownhills
2010 - Aldridge and Brownhills
2015 - Thornbury and Yate
Greetings from wonderful Wanstead.