Jon gaunt @jongaunt 4m4 minutes ago Getting a feeling many people are biting @UKIP@Nigel_Farage today. Met 4 people on trains who have said that are polls wrong
Trouble with understanding what biting means. LOL
UKIP surging in East Midlands. Two managers in my office voted kipper this morning, won over by this fellows attitude to people on benefits:
Etiquette question, Should I go for a "cooking" whisky, and plain glasses in case I need to rage at the results, or be stoical with the lead crystal, and a quality single malt?
Whenever I ask myself that question I always come down on the side of the lead crystal and single malt, frankly life is too short to do anything else
Will Jennings @drjennings · 45m 45 minutes ago Our final @pollingobs forecast of #GE2015 seats: Lab 273, Con 271, LibDem 24, SNP 55, Ukip 2 (that based on 2-point Con lead in vote share).
Polling Observatory calling it for Lab most seats-by 2.
Etiquette question, Should I go for a "cooking" whisky, and plain glasses in case I need to rage at the results, or be stoical with the lead crystal, and a quality single malt?
Whenever I ask myself that question I always come down on the side of the lead crystal and single malt, frankly life is too short to do anything else
Better one bottle of Cheval Blanc than a case of dubious merlot.
I have a large number of friends in Warrington North and judging by likes on a baby eating Tories will privAtise all the nhs post, then Labour will be doing very well. However the more sensible part of Warrington is Warrington south which I would expect to go labour
Judging by the number of Blue signs in peoples gardens in Warrington South and virtually no labour ones I think David Mowat has a fair chance of holding on in Warrington South
Perhaps I am just being influenced by the highly negative coverage. Mind you I think the more intelligent friends I have that still live in the area are mostly teachers and they all seem to vote Labour. I thought the Ashcroft information for Warrington and Chester had Labour leads.
Maybe if Miliband wanted a more favourable press running up to the election, he shouldn't have made press regulation one of his biggest policy crusades of the past few years...
On my FB page, several people are talking about spoiling their ballots. Do we get totals of spoiled ballots at the end of the counts?
The Returning Officer will announce the number of spoiled ballots, although the chance of anyone outside the room writing down the numbers seems pretty negligible.
On my FB page, several people are talking about spoiling their ballots. Do we get totals of spoiled ballots at the end of the counts?
Spoiled mine this morning for the GE but voted Con in the locals as the local councillor does a good job. I don't see why he should lose his seat just because Osborne's a wanker.
There's a clear mark of intent. I think it's more likely than not that it would be counted.
Surely its a clearly identifiable vote so would be void, plus the language battered wife etc - joking about domestic abuse on a ballot paper is surely like joking about bombs in the airport. Has to be a spoilt ballot surely.
There's no law against jokes in bad taste and as the comment doesn't run against the actual vote then I don't think it should be invalid for uncertainty.
As for being identifiable, it's only if the voter him- or herself is identifiable that would render the ballot invalid, which isn't the case here.
I thought the whole purpose of laws against identifiable votes were to prevent corruption - to stop people signing the votes a certain way and then being paid for that vote. If you can sign it with a text, what's to stop people using a certain unique password code and then being paid for that vote?
It may not be the case, but any text other than the vote should be a spoilt ballot. Since there's a significant proportion of spoilt ballots each year, I'd imagine one referencing criminal coercion would be.
It's basically practically impossible to prevent someone armed with a pencil and paper from making an identifiable mark that they've agreed with somebody else. Just a fold, or a particular shaped X is all you need. This was one of the many known vulnerabilities in paper-and-pencil systems, even before we had omnipresent cheap portable cameras, which drive a coach and horses through the whole thing.
Sometimes I think the UK should just give up on secret ballots and concentrate on finding and punishing bribers and coercers, since secrecy is impractical to enforce in any case, and full transparency would make everything else about the system so much easier to verify and secure.
If the Scottish figure is anywhere close to 77%, that must surely augur a truly outstanding result for the SNP .... with comfortably more than 50 seats.
Go too high and then that's committed Unionists coming out to tactical vote. I stick by over/under-73% as being a figure to bet on the under.
Etiquette question, Should I go for a "cooking" whisky, and plain glasses in case I need to rage at the results, or be stoical with the lead crystal, and a quality single malt?
Whenever I ask myself that question I always come down on the side of the lead crystal and single malt, frankly life is too short to do anything else
It's incredible that they've almost all converged to a tie in the last 36 hours. That seems fantastical after months of deviation.
Maybe the online polls were right all along...
Yes. Lord A has gone from Tories 6% ahead a week ago, 2% ahead a couple of days ago and now a tie.
It is certainly the phone polls are that seem to be moving to come in line with the online rather than the other way line.
How do you account the Tories wiping out 3 point leads with Populus and Survation this week?
Nothing compared to the 6% of Lord A. The online polls have undoubtedly been showing a more favourable position to Labour throughout the last month - which is why people like yourself spent endless posts trying to convince us that the pro-tory phone polls were so superior in their methodology and accuracy. It is the phone polls that have moved away from being so Tory friendly and in that sense have come in line with the online polls.
Jon gaunt @jongaunt 4m4 minutes ago Getting a feeling many people are biting @UKIP@Nigel_Farage today. Met 4 people on trains who have said that are polls wrong
Trouble with understanding what biting means. LOL
UKIP surging in East Midlands. Two managers in my office voted kipper this morning, won over by this fellows attitude to people on benefits:
It looks like HL will be drinking my Scotch shortly!
so we have 4 people on a train and 2 people in an office and we conclude UKIP is surging? sounds as plausible as Ed Miliband meeting a man in a park
On the other hand my secretaries are voting LD in Melton and Rutland. I won them over by pointing out Ed Reynolds is a proper local farmer, not some blow in candidate who doesn't care for the constituency.
On the whisky issue: Bowmore for me to toast our Scottish compatriots annihilating SLAB.
The Holyrood election in 2016 will be a complicating factor whatever the outcome.
Delay it by another year. Who would object? The SNP retain their majority (they still have one, right?) and the other parties defer their inevitable battering. If Nat voters go SNP in the constituencies and Green in the lists in large numbers it could be the funniest election result ever.
J Curtice, OC exit poll, has already stuck a huge health warning on it. Amusement value only, prob.
discussing this yday. He has been spot on previous and I refuse to believe that he has not made the appropriate adjustments to reflect the changed circumstances.
There's a clear mark of intent. I think it's more likely than not that it would be counted.
Surely its a clearly identifiable vote so would be void, plus the language battered wife etc - joking about domestic abuse on a ballot paper is surely like joking about bombs in the airport. Has to be a spoilt ballot surely.
There's no law against jokes in bad taste and as the comment doesn't run against the actual vote then I don't think it should be invalid for uncertainty.
As for being identifiable, it's only if the voter him- or herself is identifiable that would render the ballot invalid, which isn't the case here. That said, if the tweet can be linked to an individual, then there would be a case for ruling it out on that basis.
Out of academic interest I'll ask our returning officer (also Chief Exec) about the rule next week when all this is over.
But if Solihull does remain orange, it's not going to be a terribly good night for us blue lovelies.
I would have thought it would be void, not because of the marks on it, but because it was photographed and posted on the Internet - therefore allowing a theoretical coercer to see which way the vote was cast.
There's a clear mark of intent. I think it's more likely than not that it would be counted.
Surely its a clearly identifiable vote so would be void, plus the language battered wife etc - joking about domestic abuse on a ballot paper is surely like joking about bombs in the airport. Has to be a spoilt ballot surely.
There's no law against jokes in bad taste and as the comment doesn't run against the actual vote then I don't think it should be invalid for uncertainty.
As for being identifiable, it's only if the voter him- or herself is identifiable that would render the ballot invalid, which isn't the case here. That said, if the tweet can be linked to an individual, then there would be a case for ruling it out on that basis.
Out of academic interest I'll ask our returning officer (also Chief Exec) about the rule next week when all this is over.
But if Solihull does remain orange, it's not going to be a terribly good night for us blue lovelies.
I would have thought it would be void, not because of the marks on it, but because it was photographed and posted on the Internet - therefore allowing a theoretical coercer to see which way the vote was cast.
I'd better send an e-mail to the Solihull Returning Officer in that case
Probably EMMPBPMBMNB (Ed Miliband Might Possibly Be Prime Minister But Might Not Be)
EWSHSTTDIOTBPMOHFRWDWHBFN
Ed will sell his soul to the devil to be PM otherwise his fratricidal rift with David will have been for nothing
while not disputing the acronym is a good 'un, the amusing thing is that if David M was in the seat, all this talk would be academic and Lab would be sitting on a 70-seat OM.
Jon gaunt @jongaunt 4m4 minutes ago Getting a feeling many people are biting @UKIP@Nigel_Farage today. Met 4 people on trains who have said that are polls wrong
Trouble with understanding what biting means. LOL
UKIP surging in East Midlands. Two managers in my office voted kipper this morning, won over by this fellows attitude to people on benefits:
It looks like HL will be drinking my Scotch shortly!
so we have 4 people on a train and 2 people in an office and we conclude UKIP is surging? sounds as plausible as Ed Miliband meeting a man in a park
On the other hand my secretaries are voting LD in Melton and Rutland. I won them over by pointing out Ed Reynolds is a proper local farmer, not some blow in candidate who doesn't care for the constituency.
On the whisky issue: Bowmore for me to toast our Scottish compatriots annihilating SLAB.
Yes even if the tories lose tonight we can still enjoy the pleasure of watching scottish labour being annihilated it will help to offset the pain
'During the 1980s and 90s Jukes was an active member of the British Labour Party and was involved in the investigations around the cash for questions scandal.'
The Holyrood election in 2016 will be a complicating factor whatever the outcome.
Delay it by another year. Who would object? The SNP retain their majority (they still have one, right?) and the other parties defer their inevitable battering. If Nat voters go SNP in the constituencies and Green in the lists in large numbers it could be the funniest election result ever.
I predict the SNP-Green thing is going to happen on a large scale. It's a fundamental flaw of the system.
It will set back the case for electoral reform still further.
Jon gaunt @jongaunt 4m4 minutes ago Getting a feeling many people are biting @UKIP@Nigel_Farage today. Met 4 people on trains who have said that are polls wrong
Trouble with understanding what biting means. LOL
UKIP surging in East Midlands. Two managers in my office voted kipper this morning, won over by this fellows attitude to people on benefits:
It looks like HL will be drinking my Scotch shortly!
so we have 4 people on a train and 2 people in an office and we conclude UKIP is surging? sounds as plausible as Ed Miliband meeting a man in a park
On the other hand my secretaries are voting LD in Melton and Rutland. I won them over by pointing out Ed Reynolds is a proper local farmer, not some blow in candidate who doesn't care for the constituency.
On the whisky issue: Bowmore for me to toast our Scottish compatriots annihilating SLAB.
It's incredible that they've almost all converged to a tie in the last 36 hours. That seems fantastical after months of deviation.
Maybe the online polls were right all along...
Yes. Lord A has gone from Tories 6% ahead a week ago, 2% ahead a couple of days ago and now a tie.
It is certainly the phone polls are that seem to be moving to come in line with the online rather than the other way line.
How do you account the Tories wiping out 3 point leads with Populus and Survation this week?
Nothing compared to the 6% of Lord A. The online polls have undoubtedly been showing a more favourable position to Labour throughout the last month - which is why people like yourself spent endless posts trying to convince us that the pro-tory phone polls were so superior in their methodology and accuracy. It is the phone polls that have moved away from being so Tory friendly and in that sense have come in line with the online polls.
The polls have clustered around a central, median type position.
That has involved phone polls coming back towards Labour and internet polls coming back towards the Tories.
It is a pretty strange phenomenon that different pollsters have detected swings in the polar opposite directions at the same time.
Croydon Central here, Labour tellers at the polling stations, UKIP in Forestdale, Fieldway and New Addington but not a Tory teller in sight. Has HM's Lord Commissioner of the Treasury given up on retaining his seat or does he have another plan?
Probably EMMPBPMBMNB (Ed Miliband Might Possibly Be Prime Minister But Might Not Be)
EWSHSTTDIOTBPMOHFRWDWHBFN
Ed will sell his soul to the devil to be PM otherwise his fratricidal rift with David will have been for nothing
while not disputing the acronym is a good 'un, the amusing thing is that if David M was in the seat, all this talk would be academic and Lab would be sitting on a 70-seat OM.
I don't get this thought that David Miliband would walk it. He was useless foreign secretary, remember they had to fly out Mandleson to stop WWIII breaking out. He was weak when he had the chance to get rid of Brown, dithering about what to do. The banana....it was Ed's bacon sandwich...
He would likely not to have got on the business bashing approach of Ed, but we aren't in 1997 now, Blairite business is good, getting rich is good, comfortable about the filthy rich is fine....it is popular to bash all of that and is why Cameron is also in trouble, he is fighting the 2015 like Blair would 2001.
Been and voted. I spend my time in 2 different constituencies,I could have registered in Penrith and Borders,but Rory needs no help there,so I am registered in Morecambe and Lunesdale. M&L is a marginal,once safely con with Lennox-Boyd,but fell to Geraldine Smith in 97,and regained by David Morris in 2010. Central Morecambe is Labour,but surrounded by smaller villages,which I would guess are Con. Very few posters,and I have not heard UKIP mentioned by anyone. Next door is Farron country , and he will not be shifted. Strange how a perfectly good sitting MP, can be displaced by an unknown, due to national swing, and in other places like Farron country, he is unmovable. Polling station was busier than I normally see,perhaps big turnout.
The Holyrood election in 2016 will be a complicating factor whatever the outcome.
Delay it by another year. Who would object? The SNP retain their majority (they still have one, right?) and the other parties defer their inevitable battering. If Nat voters go SNP in the constituencies and Green in the lists in large numbers it could be the funniest election result ever.
I predict the SNP-Green thing is going to happen on a large scale. It's a fundamental flaw of the system.
It will set back the case for electoral reform still further.
Yes, despite the obvious boost it would give to Green numbers I do think it would present some difficulties.
Imagine an SNP majority government and the Scottish Greens the main opposition!
I'm not sure if I have the fortune or misfortune of being GMT+12 so get to watch the results sober on a Friday lunchtime; in the past I really enjoyed election night parties. '97 in Glasgow lives long in the memory for it's ridiculous over the top debauchery, if only we'd known how it would all end..............
The Holyrood election in 2016 will be a complicating factor whatever the outcome.
Delay it by another year. Who would object? The SNP retain their majority (they still have one, right?) and the other parties defer their inevitable battering. If Nat voters go SNP in the constituencies and Green in the lists in large numbers it could be the funniest election result ever.
I predict the SNP-Green thing is going to happen on a large scale. It's a fundamental flaw of the system.
It will set back the case for electoral reform still further.
Yes, despite the obvious boost it would give to Green numbers I do think it would present some difficulties.
Imagine an SNP majority government and the Scottish Greens the main opposition!
I'd take 25/1 on the forecast if anyone's offering
Probably EMMPBPMBMNB (Ed Miliband Might Possibly Be Prime Minister But Might Not Be)
EWSHSTTDIOTBPMOHFRWDWHBFN
Ed will sell his soul to the devil to be PM otherwise his fratricidal rift with David will have been for nothing
while not disputing the acronym is a good 'un, the amusing thing is that if David M was in the seat, all this talk would be academic and Lab would be sitting on a 70-seat OM.
I don't get this thought that David Miliband would walk it. He was useless foreign secretary, remember they had to fly out Mandleson to stop WWIII breaking out. He was weak when he had the chance to get rid of Brown, dithering about what to do. The banana....it was Ed's bacon sandwich...
And Chilcott would have brought him down if PM anyway
Probably EMMPBPMBMNB (Ed Miliband Might Possibly Be Prime Minister But Might Not Be)
EWSHSTTDIOTBPMOHFRWDWHBFN
Ed will sell his soul to the devil to be PM otherwise his fratricidal rift with David will have been for nothing
while not disputing the acronym is a good 'un, the amusing thing is that if David M was in the seat, all this talk would be academic and Lab would be sitting on a 70-seat OM.
No chance. Scotland would be exactly the same (note the lack of progress by the great Blairite hope, Jim Murphy) and a lot of the voters who jumped ship over Iraq etc would never have got back on board.
Yep, excellent article. It is hard not to agree with his conclusion. And that has to be a good thing. Hadn't realised the Rothermeres are also non-doms.
I have a large number of friends in Warrington North and judging by likes on a baby eating Tories will privAtise all the nhs post, then Labour will be doing very well. However the more sensible part of Warrington is Warrington south which I would expect to go labour
Judging by the number of Blue signs in peoples gardens in Warrington South and virtually no labour ones I think David Mowat has a fair chance of holding on in Warrington South
I hope so. His son is an old college pal of mine. Have heard him in the HoC several times - a most sensible chap!
Probably EMMPBPMBMNB (Ed Miliband Might Possibly Be Prime Minister But Might Not Be)
EWSHSTTDIOTBPMOHFRWDWHBFN
Ed will sell his soul to the devil to be PM otherwise his fratricidal rift with David will have been for nothing
while not disputing the acronym is a good 'un, the amusing thing is that if David M was in the seat, all this talk would be academic and Lab would be sitting on a 70-seat OM.
No chance. Scotland would be exactly the same (note the lack of progress by the great Blairite hope, Jim Murphy) and a lot of the voters who jumped ship over Iraq etc would never have got back on board.
Don't agree. A lot of the red liberals would have come back anyway to vote for the anti-tory party, whilst DM might also have attracted direct Con-Lab switchers, unlike Ed.
Ooer those lib dems look awfully close to Ukip in the last few polls!
At least if I lose my vote match bets I get to moan that I was clear for 18 months only to fall short in the final furlong... Who doesn't love a good hard luck story?
no chance. look how far ahead they are with panelbase and survation. The fact the libs havent been ahead of ukip in any polls in weeks plus the shy kipper idea should keep them 2 or 3% ahead.
Ooer those lib dems look awfully close to Ukip in the last few polls!
At least if I lose my vote match bets I get to moan that I was clear for 18 months only to fall short in the final furlong... Who doesn't love a good hard luck story?
no chance. look how far ahead they are with panelbase and survation. The fact the libs havent been ahead of ukip in any polls in weeks plus the shy kipper idea should keep them 2 or 3% ahead.
Well of course I hope you are right, but this is squeaky bum time!
I feel much more confident of my bets in Thurrock, Thanet and over 2.5 seats than beating the lib dems and getting 10%
ye kipper of little faith! 12 or 13% nailed on. A significant achievement given both the media attacks and sidelining at the expense of the 3 'big parties'. I'm feeling strangely confident about Castle Point, but Thanet is the big one.
Spoke to two kipper campaign people in last 24 hours... They both said Thurrock is in the bag as is Thanet
I've been telling here in dag and rainham and 8/12 people so far have said Ukip (obv I haven't asked I am just taking numbers)
It's incredible that they've almost all converged to a tie in the last 36 hours. That seems fantastical after months of deviation.
Maybe the online polls were right all along...
Yes. Lord A has gone from Tories 6% ahead a week ago, 2% ahead a couple of days ago and now a tie.
It is certainly the phone polls are that seem to be moving to come in line with the online rather than the other way line.
How do you account the Tories wiping out 3 point leads with Populus and Survation this week?
Nothing compared to the 6% of Lord A. The online polls have undoubtedly been showing a more favourable position to Labour throughout the last month - which is why people like yourself spent endless posts trying to convince us that the pro-tory phone polls were so superior in their methodology and accuracy. It is the phone polls that have moved away from being so Tory friendly and in that sense have come in line with the online polls.
Probably EMMPBPMBMNB (Ed Miliband Might Possibly Be Prime Minister But Might Not Be)
EWSHSTTDIOTBPMOHFRWDWHBFN
Ed will sell his soul to the devil to be PM otherwise his fratricidal rift with David will have been for nothing
while not disputing the acronym is a good 'un, the amusing thing is that if David M was in the seat, all this talk would be academic and Lab would be sitting on a 70-seat OM.
No chance. Scotland would be exactly the same (note the lack of progress by the great Blairite hope, Jim Murphy) and a lot of the voters who jumped ship over Iraq etc would never have got back on board.
Don't agree. A lot of the red liberals would have come back anyway to vote for the anti-tory party, whilst DM might also have attracted direct Con-Lab switchers, unlike Ed.
But you're forgetting that DM is absolutely useless at politics. He'd have found a way to feck it all up.
Probably EMMPBPMBMNB (Ed Miliband Might Possibly Be Prime Minister But Might Not Be)
EWSHSTTDIOTBPMOHFRWDWHBFN
Ed will sell his soul to the devil to be PM otherwise his fratricidal rift with David will have been for nothing
while not disputing the acronym is a good 'un, the amusing thing is that if David M was in the seat, all this talk would be academic and Lab would be sitting on a 70-seat OM.
I don't get this thought that David Miliband would walk it. He was useless foreign secretary, remember they had to fly out Mandleson to stop WWIII breaking out. He was weak when he had the chance to get rid of Brown, dithering about what to do. The banana....it was Ed's bacon sandwich...
And Chilcott would have brought him down if PM anyway
Not just Chilcott...the media have never really gone big into what all those secret flights were going, who they were carrying and why. Who knew what, when and why.
On my FB page, several people are talking about spoiling their ballots. Do we get totals of spoiled ballots at the end of the counts?
Spoiled mine this morning for the GE but voted Con in the locals as the local councillor does a good job. I don't see why he should lose his seat just because Osborne's a wanker.
So all the candidates that you had to choose from at the GE were as bad as each other?
Blimey - bad al is a machine gun of bile on twitter this morning. he is a lovely fella.
That's an extremely encouraging sign.
I have to say that despite the nasty party tag for the Tories the only nastiness I have seen online has been from Labour. I simply cannot believe the bile, including the old I don't know how Tory voters will sleep in their beds tonight etc.
Lib dems have largely been absent an Tories have had a Facebook ad running saying I live in one of 23 constituencies required for a majority (I don't)
My shy Tory theory is stacking up on Facebook with those in the south confirming they have voted but not publicising who for, and those in the North more candid about voting Labour.
Probably EMMPBPMBMNB (Ed Miliband Might Possibly Be Prime Minister But Might Not Be)
EWSHSTTDIOTBPMOHFRWDWHBFN
Ed will sell his soul to the devil to be PM otherwise his fratricidal rift with David will have been for nothing
while not disputing the acronym is a good 'un, the amusing thing is that if David M was in the seat, all this talk would be academic and Lab would be sitting on a 70-seat OM.
No chance. Scotland would be exactly the same (note the lack of progress by the great Blairite hope, Jim Murphy) and a lot of the voters who jumped ship over Iraq etc would never have got back on board.
Don't agree. A lot of the red liberals would have come back anyway to vote for the anti-tory party, whilst DM might also have attracted direct Con-Lab switchers, unlike Ed.
But you're forgetting that DM is absolutely useless at politics. He'd have found a way to feck it all up.
We were saying the same about Ed 6 months ago. You just don't know until they try.
Probably EMMPBPMBMNB (Ed Miliband Might Possibly Be Prime Minister But Might Not Be)
EWSHSTTDIOTBPMOHFRWDWHBFN
Ed will sell his soul to the devil to be PM otherwise his fratricidal rift with David will have been for nothing
while not disputing the acronym is a good 'un, the amusing thing is that if David M was in the seat, all this talk would be academic and Lab would be sitting on a 70-seat OM.
I don't get this thought that David Miliband would walk it. He was useless foreign secretary, remember they had to fly out Mandleson to stop WWIII breaking out. He was weak when he had the chance to get rid of Brown, dithering about what to do. The banana....it was Ed's bacon sandwich...
He would likely not to have got on the business bashing approach of Ed, but we aren't in 1997 now, Blairite business is good, getting rich is good, comfortable about the filthy rich is fine....it is popular to bash all of that and is why Cameron is also in trouble, he is fighting the 2015 like Blair would 2001.
details...wonkish details...
Think about the image problems avoided, the appetite the public has for a samey-type bloke in a dark suit, etc.
He could have surrounded himself with able policy types.
Probably EMMPBPMBMNB (Ed Miliband Might Possibly Be Prime Minister But Might Not Be)
EWSHSTTDIOTBPMOHFRWDWHBFN
Ed will sell his soul to the devil to be PM otherwise his fratricidal rift with David will have been for nothing
while not disputing the acronym is a good 'un, the amusing thing is that if David M was in the seat, all this talk would be academic and Lab would be sitting on a 70-seat OM.
No chance. Scotland would be exactly the same (note the lack of progress by the great Blairite hope, Jim Murphy) and a lot of the voters who jumped ship over Iraq etc would never have got back on board.
Don't agree. A lot of the red liberals would have come back anyway to vote for the anti-tory party, whilst DM might also have attracted direct Con-Lab switchers, unlike Ed.
But you're forgetting that DM is absolutely useless at politics. He'd have found a way to feck it all up.
We were saying the same about Ed 6 months ago. You just don't know until they try.
If the cons are that far ahead in the midlands and SE & SW, could it be just that labour are hardening/piling up votes in safe northern seats and maybe at lot of LAB>UKIP switchers are coming home in safe labour seats? this certainly does not look like a uniform national swing
I commented as much yesterday. If you consider that the Sw Wales figures will have the Labour vote in Wales and then the cities in Sw, then the Tory vote is very strong.
One-party state numbers in the likes of Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle....Parts of London. Elsewhere? Balanced on a knife-edge.
I'm not sure if I have the fortune or misfortune of being GMT+12 so get to watch the results sober on a Friday lunchtime; in the past I really enjoyed election night parties. '97 in Glasgow lives long in the memory for it's ridiculous over the top debauchery, if only we'd known how it would all end..............
I was in deepest, darkest Texas for the 97 election results. There was no coverage at all, of course, and it cost a fortune back then to phone, so it was one call at around 10 pm from a bar in San Antonio to find out what had happened. I missed the party and it upsets me still.
It's incredible that they've almost all converged to a tie in the last 36 hours. That seems fantastical after months of deviation.
Maybe the online polls were right all along...
Yes. Lord A has gone from Tories 6% ahead a week ago, 2% ahead a couple of days ago and now a tie.
It is certainly the phone polls are that seem to be moving to come in line with the online rather than the other way line.
How do you account the Tories wiping out 3 point leads with Populus and Survation this week?
Nothing compared to the 6% of Lord A. The online polls have undoubtedly been showing a more favourable position to Labour throughout the last month - which is why people like yourself spent endless posts trying to convince us that the pro-tory phone polls were so superior in their methodology and accuracy. It is the phone polls that have moved away from being so Tory friendly and in that sense have come in line with the online polls.
Tomorrow are politicians going to carry on pretending that they can run an effective government without a coalition? I suppose they said all that stuff about minority govt and confidence+supply because they were desperate, but surely someone is going to have to climb down? It's insanity to try to run the country for more than a month without a majority government of some kind. It would create endless waves of insecurity in organisations, businesses and the markets, as well as being a living hell for the politicians themselves. If a coalition is not possible there will surely have to be another election within the year.
Oooh officially exit polled by Ipsos mori on way out.
Couldn't decide how to vote, changed my mind about 5 times past 24hrs, until I got into the polling booth with the ballot paper. Just knew then & v happy with decision.
An Ipsos MORI survey exclusively for the Evening Standard finds the Conservatives on 36 per cent and Labour on 35 per cent. Ukip is on 11 per cent and Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats are in fourth place with eight per cent.
Probably EMMPBPMBMNB (Ed Miliband Might Possibly Be Prime Minister But Might Not Be)
EWSHSTTDIOTBPMOHFRWDWHBFN
Ed will sell his soul to the devil to be PM otherwise his fratricidal rift with David will have been for nothing
while not disputing the acronym is a good 'un, the amusing thing is that if David M was in the seat, all this talk would be academic and Lab would be sitting on a 70-seat OM.
No chance. Scotland would be exactly the same (note the lack of progress by the great Blairite hope, Jim Murphy) and a lot of the voters who jumped ship over Iraq etc would never have got back on board.
Don't agree. A lot of the red liberals would have come back anyway to vote for the anti-tory party, whilst DM might also have attracted direct Con-Lab switchers, unlike Ed.
But you're forgetting that DM is absolutely useless at politics. He'd have found a way to feck it all up.
We were saying the same about Ed 6 months ago. You just don't know until they try.
He did try to win the leadership of the Labour party and seems to have lost for the want of simply asking some fellow MPs for lower order preferences. How crap is that?
An Ipsos MORI survey exclusively for the Evening Standard finds the Conservatives on 36 per cent and Labour on 35 per cent. Ukip is on 11 per cent and Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats are in fourth place with eight per cent.
An Ipsos MORI survey exclusively for the Evening Standard finds the Conservatives on 36 per cent and Labour on 35 per cent. Ukip is on 11 per cent and Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats are in fourth place with eight per cent.
Civic duty done, once I found the Polling Station, which was NOT where I left it last time.
Turnout described as "steady"
Predictions.
The betting markets are wrong. They were last time, they will be this time.
The polls are wrong. The clustering around a statistical tie will not I think be the final result.
The pundits are wrong. The seat calculators are probably not sophisticated enough to compensate for UNS, incumbency and the Jockalypse Now.
So, Tories most votes (just) most seats (just), Cameron carries on a dares the others to vote down the Queen's Speech (which they do). He resigns as PM, Party leader and MP. Ed takes over.
Nicola votes down Ed's first budget (just to show she can).
The next set of GDP figures were probably going to be ugly anyway, but will be worse. Interest rates hike. Let's not forget Greece
Any internal Tory fight is completely masked by public outrage at Ed getting bitchslapped
Re turnout . as there are fewer postal votes this time , you would correspondingly expect turnout at the polling stations to be higher than in previous elections .
I think that's a Good Thing in and of itself - postal votes on demand is an abomination - but is that as a result of IVR? Do people have to reselect postal votes when they re-register?
I like voting in person, but have been working away from home a fair bit in the past and with voting on a Thursday it's just more practical. As I recall the postal vote remains in place until cancelled.
Civic duty done, once I found the Polling Station, which was NOT where I left it last time.
Turnout described as "steady"
Predictions.
The betting markets are wrong. They were last time, they will be this time.
The polls are wrong. The clustering around a statistical tie will not I think be the final result.
The pundits are wrong. The seat calculators are probably not sophisticated enough to compensate for UNS, incumbency and the Jockalypse Now.
So, Tories most votes (just) most seats (just), Cameron carries on a dares the others to vote down the Queen's Speech (which they do). He resigns as PM, Party leader and MP. Ed takes over.
Nicola votes down Ed's first budget (just to show she can).
The next set of GDP figures were probably going to be ugly anyway, but will be worse. Interest rates hike. Let's not forget Greece
Any internal Tory fight is completely masked by public outrage at Ed getting bitchslapped
New election when Ed gets bored of losing.
I'm sorry, who are all these tweets from? It doesnt say!
There's a clear mark of intent. I think it's more likely than not that it would be counted.
Surely its a clearly identifiable vote so would be void, plus the language battered wife etc - joking about domestic abuse on a ballot paper is surely like joking about bombs in the airport. Has to be a spoilt ballot surely.
There's no law against jokes in bad taste and as the comment doesn't run against the actual vote then I don't think it should be invalid for uncertainty.
As for being identifiable, it's only if the voter him- or herself is identifiable that would render the ballot invalid, which isn't the case here.
I thought the whole purpose of laws against identifiable votes were to prevent corruption - to stop people signing the votes a certain way and then being paid for that vote. If you can sign it with a text, what's to stop people using a certain unique password code and then being paid for that vote?
It may not be the case, but any text other than the vote should be a spoilt ballot. Since there's a significant proportion of spoilt ballots each year, I'd imagine one referencing criminal coercion would be.
If someone did use a codeword to identify themselves then that would be illegal as you suggest. However, I very much doubt that's the case here.
As for criminal coercion, I doubt it would be practically possible. For it to work, you'd need (at least) hundreds of such papers, which clearly would show up at the count and should make the returning officer and police suspicious. Furthermore, the corrupt party would then need to mark off each codeword so s/he knew which voters to pay out to, which might itself attract attention at the count!
Comments
http://www.politico.eu/article/the-british-press-has-lost-it/
On my FB page, several people are talking about spoiling their ballots. Do we get totals of spoiled ballots at the end of the counts?
Our final @pollingobs forecast of #GE2015 seats: Lab 273, Con 271, LibDem 24, SNP 55, Ukip 2 (that based on 2-point Con lead in vote share).
Polling Observatory calling it for Lab most seats-by 2.
Ed will sell his soul to the devil to be PM otherwise his fratricidal rift with David will have been for nothing
Sometimes I think the UK should just give up on secret ballots and concentrate on finding and punishing bribers and coercers, since secrecy is impractical to enforce in any case, and full transparency would make everything else about the system so much easier to verify and secure.
On the whisky issue: Bowmore for me to toast our Scottish compatriots annihilating SLAB.
Oh, and @Smarmeron - Japanese malt, surely...
'Brilliant from Peter Jukes:
http://www.politico.eu/article/the-british-press-has-lost-it/
Career leftie whining about anti Labour press, what a revelation!
I am expecting Saddam-esque levels of turnout....
Japanese is a bit "girly", much like several of the Spey's
'During the 1980s and 90s Jukes was an active member of the British Labour Party and was involved in the investigations around the cash for questions scandal.'
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Jukes
It will set back the case for electoral reform still further.
That has involved phone polls coming back towards Labour and internet polls coming back towards the Tories.
It is a pretty strange phenomenon that different pollsters have detected swings in the polar opposite directions at the same time.
Has HM's Lord Commissioner of the Treasury given up on retaining his seat or does he have another plan?
He would likely not to have got on the business bashing approach of Ed, but we aren't in 1997 now, Blairite business is good, getting rich is good, comfortable about the filthy rich is fine....it is popular to bash all of that and is why Cameron is also in trouble, he is fighting the 2015 like Blair would 2001.
M&L is a marginal,once safely con with Lennox-Boyd,but fell to Geraldine Smith in 97,and regained by David Morris in 2010. Central Morecambe is Labour,but surrounded by smaller villages,which I would guess are Con. Very few posters,and I have not heard UKIP mentioned by anyone.
Next door is Farron country , and he will not be shifted. Strange how a perfectly good sitting MP, can be displaced by an unknown, due to national swing, and in other places like Farron country, he is unmovable.
Polling station was busier than I normally see,perhaps big turnout.
Imagine an SNP majority government and the Scottish Greens the main opposition!
'Ed will sell his soul to the devil to be PM otherwise his fratricidal rift with David will have been for nothing'
Spot on, despite what he says he'll do a deal with the SNP if required, it'll be called an arrangement instead of a deal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Q_flQjxVfI
On polls: what if they got the vote share right but the seat forecasts utterly wrong?
At 11am I gave two elderly neighbours a lift to vote. Car park full. Lots of voters.
I reckon it's OAPs being lazy and getting late out of bed:-)
telegraph.co.uk/foodanddrink/foodanddrinknews/11204872/Scotland-loses-out-as-Japanese-whisky-named-best-in-the-world.html
Here are the targets for Con, Lab, LD, SNP:
https://t.co/NSanMdDNHm
I've been telling here in dag and rainham and 8/12 people so far have said Ukip (obv I haven't asked I am just taking numbers)
Except you can't, because I haven't.
Lib dems have largely been absent an Tories have had a Facebook ad running saying I live in one of 23 constituencies required for a majority (I don't)
My shy Tory theory is stacking up on Facebook with those in the south confirming they have voted but not publicising who for, and those in the North more candid about voting Labour.
Think about the image problems avoided, the appetite the public has for a samey-type bloke in a dark suit, etc.
He could have surrounded himself with able policy types.
I really do hope they call him in as a guest on the video link.
order-order.com/#_@/Yldl7D_F9UDVKg
Now that Guido highlights the pencil over Labour.
Couldn't decide how to vote, changed my mind about 5 times past 24hrs, until I got into the polling booth with the ballot paper. Just knew then & v happy with decision.
An Ipsos MORI survey exclusively for the Evening Standard finds the Conservatives on 36 per cent and Labour on 35 per cent.
Ukip is on 11 per cent and Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats are in fourth place with eight per cent.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/final-election-poll-tories-and-labour-still-neck-and-neck-10231667.html
edit oh lol you were lampooning Kellner!
According to Debrette’s ‘Gentleman’s club rules’ - a single malt is de rigueur, unless unaccompanied by a revolver. Style of glass, optional!
Turnout described as "steady"
Predictions.
The betting markets are wrong. They were last time, they will be this time.
The polls are wrong. The clustering around a statistical tie will not I think be the final result.
The pundits are wrong. The seat calculators are probably not sophisticated enough to compensate for UNS, incumbency and the Jockalypse Now.
So, Tories most votes (just) most seats (just), Cameron carries on a dares the others to vote down the Queen's Speech (which they do). He resigns as PM, Party leader and MP. Ed takes over.
Nicola votes down Ed's first budget (just to show she can).
The next set of GDP figures were probably going to be ugly anyway, but will be worse. Interest rates hike. Let's not forget Greece
Any internal Tory fight is completely masked by public outrage at Ed getting bitchslapped
New election when Ed gets bored of losing.
As I recall the postal vote remains in place until cancelled.
As for criminal coercion, I doubt it would be practically possible. For it to work, you'd need (at least) hundreds of such papers, which clearly would show up at the count and should make the returning officer and police suspicious. Furthermore, the corrupt party would then need to mark off each codeword so s/he knew which voters to pay out to, which might itself attract attention at the count!