I detect a late swingback to Labour in Scotland which should see their seats there in double figures and overall make them a cert on the most seats market.
I'm projecting Labour on 9 in Scotland (Airdrie, Coatbridge, Dunbartonshire W, Glasgow NE, Glenrothes, Kirkcaldy, Motherwell, Renfrewshire E, Rutherglen) but that still leaves Labour with a total seat range between 262 and 279. The only thing that'll make Labour a cert for most seats is the strong performance in the Con-Lab marginals that they're supposed to have had.
I detect a late swingback to Labour in Scotland which should see their seats there in double figures and overall make them a cert on the most seats market.
Really? In that case why don't you hurry off to Betfair and take their 6.0 on Labour Most Seats?
If that is true then the LDs could benefit as well.
I think an announcement we'd just join the eurozone is beyond even him, however.
I'm much less concerned about the prospect of Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister than some on here and while those of a Conservative disposition might be sizing up the comfy chair of Opposition, the fact is Ed has surpassed many expectations in this campaign.
My view is that Ed M is a better politician than David Cameron - that doesn't make him a better Prime Minister - and his campaigning and that of his Party appears to have been effective.
I agree with you about Mr Miliband. Not one to confuse with Mr Stalin.
The problem with the parliamentary Labour Party is going to be with the Unite candidates elected today. How large a faction will they be?
I detect a late swingback to Labour in Scotland which should see their seats there in double figures and overall make them a cert on the most seats market.
40/1 on most Scottish seats with PP. It would take a lot of shy No voters to be shy SLAB, and maybe some tactical voting.
Miliband: "I’ve just voted in Doncaster. Today isn’t a day to vote simply for Labour but to vote for yourself & for your family http://pic.twitter.com/SyhjnkOcls "
Completely out of touch. He clearly has no idea that for millions of voters up and down the country, there isn't even anyone in the family on the ballot paper.
Miliband: "I’ve just voted in Doncaster. Today isn’t a day to vote simply for Labour but to vote for yourself & for your family http://pic.twitter.com/SyhjnkOcls "
Completely out of touch. He clearly has no idea that for millions of voters up and down the country, there isn't even anyone in the family on the ballot paper.
With the final seats figures being put forward, it could well be that Cons+LDs = or < Lab + SNP. Is there a market on whether or not EdM will keep his promise not join with the SNP? Of course nothing has been mentioned about C & S with the SNP - is there a market for that?
Here's my list of constituencies voted in! 1992 - Southampton Itchen 1997 - Norfolk South 2001 - Witham 2005 - Mid Norfolk 2010 - Mid Norfolk 2015 - Broadland
Had I been eligible in 1987 it would have been Norwich South and had there been an election before 2013 North Norfolk. That concludes my movements through the country!
This is my first election in which I have retained my seat!
2001 - Oxford West & Abingdon 2005 - Ealing Acton & Shepherd's Bush 2010 - Burton 2015 - Burton
I detect a late swingback to Labour in Scotland which should see their seats there in double figures and overall make them a cert on the most seats market.
40/1 on most Scottish seats with PP. It would take a lot of shy No voters to be shy SLAB, and maybe some tactical voting.
I was like a kid at Christmas last night and barely got a wink of sleep - after a long day today and the prospect of an all-nighter, I'll be nodding on the sofa all tomorrow.
See that Morrisons sales are down a further 2.9% in the three months to May. Not really surprised as when I went there yesterday about 5.30 pm (to get cakes and pastries for Thursday's coffee and cakes day) , few checkout were open and people were leaving their trolleys full and walking out in disgust. Also, as usual, where brands were very low in stock, none were being restocked, but plenty of own-label left. The new CEO needs to do some surprise store visits.
In defence of Morrisons, their own brand 85% chocolate is very nice, and only £1.29 a bar.
Go back to your constituencies and prepare for opposition ?
@patrickwintour: Former LD leader Lord Steel in any Libdem vote after election will oppose any further coalition - party should recharge batteries & values.
Yes because the whole point of a political party is to be out of power.
For many members or supporters of the Lib Dems (or former ones), that was precisely the purpose of that party: to be a 'nice' opposition and provide an alternative to the nasty and/or incompetent parties of government. Clearly the flaw in that purpose was that were it electorally successful it would inevitably undermine first the conditions necessary to bring it about (being in opposition) and then the rationale itself. But as long as the self-destruct button could be avoided, they ran with it and left the long term to take care of itself.
What the purpose of the Lib Dems is now, goodness only knows.
David Steel is no doubt influenced by his own experience following the 1976/78 Lib-Lab pact which led to a poor Liberal performance in the 1979 election. I feel he has become rather bitter and negative - a coalition would be better for the country than minority government, I think
Here's my list of constituencies voted in! 1992 - Southampton Itchen 1997 - Norfolk South 2001 - Witham 2005 - Mid Norfolk 2010 - Mid Norfolk 2015 - Broadland
Had I been eligible in 1987 it would have been Norwich South and had there been an election before 2013 North Norfolk. That concludes my movements through the country!
This is my first election in which I have retained my seat!
2001 - Oxford West & Abingdon 2005 - Ealing Acton & Shepherd's Bush 2010 - Burton 2015 - Burton
Two more votes for Dr Sarah Wollaston towards her 10k majority.
Local election only had a Tory and a Green. The collapse of the LibDems in the South Hams is remarkable. Hoping it has spread over the border to Torbay!
I detect a late swingback to Labour in Scotland which should see their seats there in double figures and overall make them a cert on the most seats market.
Who knows? To be honest I've not given it much thought, since if, God forbid, we do end up with Ed Miliband in No 10, there will be much more important things to worry about than David Cameron.
In any case his place in history as one of the very best post-war PMs is already assured."
Have you ever thought about doing 'stand-up'?
There is a good chance that history will judge Cameron much better than Brown or Blair, at the very least. Holding together a coalition during the economic crisis was not easy. Blair had it easy with a large majority and will be stained by the wars, whilst Brown will be stained by the economic crash and Labour's tribal infighting, much of which he caused.
Major's reputation seems to have been rehabilitated since he left power. Blair and Brown's have both plummeted. Time will tell which way Cameron's will go: Richard might well be correct.
The economic crisis was over, it was about managing the recovery.
No the economic crisis was not over, the Eurozone was still a mess. In any even the govt managed the recovery very well. In historic terms the recovery from such a deep recession - a depression - have generally been slow. Read econiomist David Smith's regular analyses in the Sunday Times. In his last column he points out nwhat he said in 2010 - he ''warned of a post-election hangover for the economy, whoever won. The eurozone crisis was intensifying, the banking system had not been fixed and deficit reduction was just getting going''.
The point about the banking system I think is well made since the banks had to rebuild their balance sheets which was always going to make borrowing and any recovery difficult. These are all easy things for Labour and its cheerleaders, especially the cosy well off ones like Coogan, to forget. And the public have no concept of the Basle Rules and capital reserves. And even I had almost forgot about all the rate fixing which went on when Balls and Brown were in charge and to be unearthed under the Tories.
Out first thing to get shot of Gloria, which has a small possibility of happening if all the Lib Dem garden signs in our area - 20 in 800m of main road - are not just posturing. Polling station very quiet, but I am told there were a *lot* of postal votes in Ashfield.
This is the first election where I've dabbled with some bets - expecting a small profit of a few 10s of £, so thanks for all the comments over the last couple of months.
I'm now looking for a couple of spreadsheets, one to log bets for keeping track, and one for calculations. Any recommendations would be most welcome.
Prediction 1:
Tory - 286 Lab - 261 LD - 25 UKIP - 3 SNP - 50 PC - 4 NI - 18 Gallowanker - 1 Green - 1 Squeaker - 1
Prediction 2:
I predict that my prediction will be way off.
Looking forward to home truths about Nippy Nicky in the HoC when she tries to manipulate it from outside.
Go back to your constituencies and prepare for opposition ?
@patrickwintour: Former LD leader Lord Steel in any Libdem vote after election will oppose any further coalition - party should recharge batteries & values.
Yes because the whole point of a political party is to be out of power.
For many members or supporters of the Lib Dems (or former ones), that was precisely the purpose of that party: to be a 'nice' opposition and provide an alternative to the nasty and/or incompetent parties of government. Clearly the flaw in that purpose was that were it electorally successful it would inevitably undermine first the conditions necessary to bring it about (being in opposition) and then the rationale itself. But as long as the self-destruct button could be avoided, they ran with it and left the long term to take care of itself.
What the purpose of the Lib Dems is now, goodness only knows.
David Steel is no doubt influenced by his own experience following the 1976/78 Lib-Lab pact which led to a poor Liberal performance in the 1979 election. I feel he has become rather bitter and negative - a coalition would be better for the country than minority government, I think
We Lib Dems put country before party in 2010 . If as is likely we lose a number of seats because of it , then we will put party before country post today and there will be no Lib Dem coalition with either Labour or Conservatives
Ok, thoughts in a Grand coalition Let's say we end up at 270a piece and no coalition can be agreed or QS guaranteed to pass. Let's make it 271-270 then, either way. The smaller party might agree if the leader of the larger party resigns and so,some else becomes PM with the leader of the smaller party getting DPM/FS and pick of CoE, larger party getting HS/JS and PM, rest of posts distributed day 7:6 in favour of larger party on a pick portfolio basis, junior ministers split evenly?
Edit - or the unthinkable.... Agree a technocrat PM?!
Well if we have a Labour Government, the outlook for the increased revenues they need is not great according to this...
"Raising taxes to plug Britain’s deficit will not work, two founder members of the Bank of England’s panel that sets interest rates have warned." http://tinyurl.com/knhnrn9
Go back to your constituencies and prepare for opposition ?
@patrickwintour: Former LD leader Lord Steel in any Libdem vote after election will oppose any further coalition - party should recharge batteries & values.
Yes because the whole point of a political party is to be out of power.
For many members or supporters of the Lib Dems (or former ones), that was precisely the purpose of that party: to be a 'nice' opposition and provide an alternative to the nasty and/or incompetent parties of government. Clearly the flaw in that purpose was that were it electorally successful it would inevitably undermine first the conditions necessary to bring it about (being in opposition) and then the rationale itself. But as long as the self-destruct button could be avoided, they ran with it and left the long term to take care of itself.
What the purpose of the Lib Dems is now, goodness only knows.
David Steel is no doubt influenced by his own experience following the 1976/78 Lib-Lab pact which led to a poor Liberal performance in the 1979 election. I feel he has become rather bitter and negative - a coalition would be better for the country than minority government, I think
We Lib Dems put country before party in 2010 . If as is likely we lose a number of seats because of it , then we will put party before country post today and there will be no Lib Dem coalition with either Labour or Conservatives
Here's my list of constituencies voted in! 1992 - Southampton Itchen 1997 - Norfolk South 2001 - Witham 2005 - Mid Norfolk 2010 - Mid Norfolk 2015 - Broadland
Had I been eligible in 1987 it would have been Norwich South and had there been an election before 2013 North Norfolk. That concludes my movements through the country!
This is my first election in which I have retained my seat!
2001 - Oxford West & Abingdon 2005 - Ealing Acton & Shepherd's Bush 2010 - Burton 2015 - Burton
Two more votes for Dr Sarah Wollaston towards her 10k majority.
Local election only had a Tory and a Green. The collapse of the LibDems in the South Hams is remarkable. Hoping it has spread over the border to Torbay!
Yes - but my sentiment has it that Labour will not do as badly in Scotland as is speculated. They deserve to be wiped out but will they? That's why if people do flirt with other parties in England than Miliband will be laughing.
Here's my list of constituencies voted in! 1992 - Southampton Itchen 1997 - Norfolk South 2001 - Witham 2005 - Mid Norfolk 2010 - Mid Norfolk 2015 - Broadland
Had I been eligible in 1987 it would have been Norwich South and had there been an election before 2013 North Norfolk. That concludes my movements through the country!
This is my first election in which I have retained my seat!
2001 - Oxford West & Abingdon 2005 - Ealing Acton & Shepherd's Bush 2010 - Burton 2015 - Burton
Labour Most Seats now 6.2 and rising ...... looks like that particular contest is as good as over.
Looks like the betting markets think so. But then we've seen that sort of thing before. I'd have thought there was a good deal of value in the Labour price.
If we assume the polls are right (which I wouldn't necessarily but let's play the scenario for the moment), and there's a tiny Con lead then Labour should still have a lead in seats even allowing for Scotland. The UKPR advanced calculator reckons on it being about 290-276 to Labour based on current polling (with 17 Lib Dems and 67 others). That is tight but the uncertainties don't make Lab most seats a 5/1 shot to my mind.
Similarly, look at the 2005 figures for comparison. Labour finished ahead by 3%, of which almost half that lead came from Scotland, but won 355 seats. Knock off forty seats for Scotland and apply another 1% Lab-Con swing and you'd still be short of Con most seats.
The only possible conclusions are that the polls are wrong, or that there's a lot of value in the market. Indeed, even if the polls are wrong but only slightly so, there'd still be value. Furthermore, they'd have to be wrong in England (where it'd help the Tories) but not in Scotland (where it'd help Labour). Silly price.
Go back to your constituencies and prepare for opposition ?
@patrickwintour: Former LD leader Lord Steel in any Libdem vote after election will oppose any further coalition - party should recharge batteries & values.
Yes because the whole point of a political party is to be out of power.
For many members or supporters of the Lib Dems (or former ones), that was precisely the purpose of that party: to be a 'nice' opposition and provide an alternative to the nasty and/or incompetent parties of government. Clearly the flaw in that purpose was that were it electorally successful it would inevitably undermine first the conditions necessary to bring it about (being in opposition) and then the rationale itself. But as long as the self-destruct button could be avoided, they ran with it and left the long term to take care of itself.
What the purpose of the Lib Dems is now, goodness only knows.
David Steel is no doubt influenced by his own experience following the 1976/78 Lib-Lab pact which led to a poor Liberal performance in the 1979 election. I feel he has become rather bitter and negative - a coalition would be better for the country than minority government, I think
We Lib Dems put country before party in 2010 . If as is likely we lose a number of seats because of it , then we will put party before country post today and there will be no Lib Dem coalition with either Labour or Conservatives
"We LibDems put country before party in 2010" Is this the same party whose modus operandi at local level is to invent a problem which will be caused by its opposition and then claim to fight to stop the problem?
Go back to your constituencies and prepare for opposition ?
@patrickwintour: Former LD leader Lord Steel in any Libdem vote after election will oppose any further coalition - party should recharge batteries & values.
Yes because the whole point of a political party is to be out of power.
For many members or supporters of the Lib Dems (or former ones), that was precisely the purpose of that party: to be a 'nice' opposition and provide an alternative to the nasty and/or incompetent parties of government. Clearly the flaw in that purpose was that were it electorally successful it would inevitably undermine first the conditions necessary to bring it about (being in opposition) and then the rationale itself. But as long as the self-destruct button could be avoided, they ran with it and left the long term to take care of itself.
What the purpose of the Lib Dems is now, goodness only knows.
David Steel is no doubt influenced by his own experience following the 1976/78 Lib-Lab pact which led to a poor Liberal performance in the 1979 election. I feel he has become rather bitter and negative - a coalition would be better for the country than minority government, I think
We Lib Dems put country before party in 2010 . If as is likely we lose a number of seats because of it , then we will put party before country post today and there will be no Lib Dem coalition with either Labour or Conservatives
I think an announcement we'd just join the eurozone is beyond even him, however.
I'm much less concerned about the prospect of Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister than some on here and while those of a Conservative disposition might be sizing up the comfy chair of Opposition, the fact is Ed has surpassed many expectations in this campaign.
If you believed some of the guff posted on here, the Labour campaign has been a web of gaffes, blunders and ill-timed gimmicks and if that had had the impact some on here claim, Labour would be at 25% or less now.
My view is that Ed M is a better politician than David Cameron - that doesn't make him a better Prime Minister - and his campaigning and that of his Party appears to have been effective. As I said last night, I think the Conservatives hoped to stun the Labour heart and brain by some well-timed policy initiatives and direct assaults on Labour's past record.
However, instead of surgical strikes to the heart and brain, the Conservatives have hacked at limbs and often missed those. The Conservative campaign bet the farm on the reputation of a single individual who they believed is liked more than he really is and who wanted the job more than he really does.
I am more concerned about Miliband becoming Prime Minister, not just because of him, I don't believe there is a huge amount of quality behind him, which is a concern and add to that the vested interests of some very dubious Union Leaders and the SNP and that is a package that does provide me with concern.
We are all in the minority on here following the politics closely, in my view Miliband is a polished and articulate performer in set piece debates, or talking to an audience of supporters, I never thought he would trip up in a highly managed campaign. In those circumstances it was Cameron who is less comfortable and consistent. Under pressure in the Commons hothouse, no doubt for me Cameron is much superior, perhaps that's why so many close political followers under estimated Miliband, from all sides.
I am not against Labour per se, I have voted for them before I could possibly get behind Ed Balls who I rate, Umunna looks promising, Cooper is solid enough beyond that they look weak. Miliband has had over 4 years but has preferred opposition for opposition's sake and opportunism to putting a solid economic plan to put before the electorate. The Coalition overall in my opinion have done a decent job and I don't believe Miliband has done enough to deserve his chance. My hope is he get's to no more than 260 seats and Labour move forward with a better leader, not Burnham though he would be worse.
If Miliband does form a government the inevitable Balls v MaCluskey, Prentice and pals will be a fight well worth keeping a close eye on, could be very entertaining.
Go back to your constituencies and prepare for opposition ?
@patrickwintour: Former LD leader Lord Steel in any Libdem vote after election will oppose any further coalition - party should recharge batteries & values.
Yes because the whole point of a political party is to be out of power.
For many members or supporters of the Lib Dems (or former ones), that was precisely the purpose of that party: to be a 'nice' opposition and provide an alternative to the nasty and/or incompetent parties of government. Clearly the flaw in that purpose was that were it electorally successful it would inevitably undermine first the conditions necessary to bring it about (being in opposition) and then the rationale itself. But as long as the self-destruct button could be avoided, they ran with it and left the long term to take care of itself.
What the purpose of the Lib Dems is now, goodness only knows.
David Steel is no doubt influenced by his own experience following the 1976/78 Lib-Lab pact which led to a poor Liberal performance in the 1979 election. I feel he has become rather bitter and negative - a coalition would be better for the country than minority government, I think
We Lib Dems put country before party in 2010 . If as is likely we lose a number of seats because of it , then we will put party before country post today and there will be no Lib Dem coalition with either Labour or Conservatives
"We LibDems put country before party in 2010" Is this the same party whose modus operandi at local level is to invent a problem which will be caused by its opposition and then claim to fight to stop the problem?
No that is what the Conservatives do here in Worthing
Go back to your constituencies and prepare for opposition ?
@patrickwintour: Former LD leader Lord Steel in any Libdem vote after election will oppose any further coalition - party should recharge batteries & values.
Yes because the whole point of a political party is to be out of power.
For many members or supporters of the Lib Dems (or former ones), that was precisely the purpose of that party: to be a 'nice' opposition and provide an alternative to the nasty and/or incompetent parties of government. Clearly the flaw in that purpose was that were it electorally successful it would inevitably undermine first the conditions necessary to bring it about (being in opposition) and then the rationale itself. But as long as the self-destruct button could be avoided, they ran with it and left the long term to take care of itself.
What the purpose of the Lib Dems is now, goodness only knows.
David Steel is no doubt influenced by his own experience following the 1976/78 Lib-Lab pact which led to a poor Liberal performance in the 1979 election. I feel he has become rather bitter and negative - a coalition would be better for the country than minority government, I think
We Lib Dems put country before party in 2010 . If as is likely we lose a number of seats because of it , then we will put party before country post today and there will be no Lib Dem coalition with either Labour or Conservatives
People realised you opposed the Iraq war for cynical electioneering reasons when you subsequently supported Libya and Syria. Getting what you deserve today.
It seems some of our more excitable Scottish friends are going to be out to make a nuisance of themselves again.
Scottish police have issued nationwide warnings amid fears of 'threatening behaviour' from firebrand SNP supporters.
According to the Guardian police and election officials have still sent out warnings to all of Scotland's 32 councils urging them to be aware to problems during voting and when the papers are transported.
Nationalists who believe that last year's referendum was rigged in favour of the 'No' campaign have urged people to photograph their votes.
The campaign, called Operation Scallop, has been widely shared across Facebook and Twitter because some SNP members fear their votes will be torn up, changed or not counted.
Organisers also say that supporters should vote in the last hour - between 9pm and 10pm - and then 'hang about outside' and 'take photos of anything suspicious' as the papers are loaded into vans.
They should then use their own transport to trail ballot boxes when they leave polling stations and follow them to the count and watch them being unloaded, it says.
I'm keeping the faith, especially after reading that article on Shy Tories. A long and technical piece which details (sic) a solid, evidence-based argument to the effect that the ENTIRE polling system is broken so that there is a MASSIVE gap between them (all!) and l'actualité even if hardly anyone recognises it... YET.
It's a stunner if it turns out to be even half-true, but than again, look how Kellner has been hedging his bets. He may be a lefty but he is a businessman with an income stream to protect
Here's my list of constituencies voted in! 1992 - Southampton Itchen 1997 - Norfolk South 2001 - Witham 2005 - Mid Norfolk 2010 - Mid Norfolk 2015 - Broadland
Had I been eligible in 1987 it would have been Norwich South and had there been an election before 2013 North Norfolk. That concludes my movements through the country!
This is my first election in which I have retained my seat!
2001 - Oxford West & Abingdon 2005 - Ealing Acton & Shepherd's Bush 2010 - Burton 2015 - Burton
Where in Burton?
Countryside near Uttoxeter
I know it well .... JCB country.
Nope, it's where Mr Bamford has a massive factory that makes farm equipment.
@LadPolitics: Big queue at my polling station today. But that is a very small sample, so cannot help me decide on likely turnout. #breakingnews.
Mine looked busier than normal and from looking at the register, when my name was crossed off, a lot of other names were crossed off too. I was not able to linger because someone else was waiting for my booth when I was done.
Steady but not busy at my polling station. For a 3 vote ward only the LDs have a full slate of candidates.
My voting history:
1983 Romsey and Waterside SDP 1987 Wimbledon SDP/Lib Alliance 1992 Wolverhampton SW Labour 1997 Leicester South Labour 2001 Leicester South Labour 2005 Rutland and Melton LD 2010 Rutland and Melton Con 2015 Rutland and Melton LD
Here's my list of constituencies voted in! 1992 - Southampton Itchen 1997 - Norfolk South 2001 - Witham 2005 - Mid Norfolk 2010 - Mid Norfolk 2015 - Broadland
Had I been eligible in 1987 it would have been Norwich South and had there been an election before 2013 North Norfolk. That concludes my movements through the country!
This is my first election in which I have retained my seat!
2001 - Oxford West & Abingdon 2005 - Ealing Acton & Shepherd's Bush 2010 - Burton 2015 - Burton
Where in Burton?
Countryside near Uttoxeter
I know it well .... JCB country.
Nope, it's where Mr Bamford has a massive factory that makes farm equipment.
Labour Most Seats now 6.2 and rising ...... looks like that particular contest is as good as over.
Looks like the betting markets think so. But then we've seen that sort of thing before. I'd have thought there was a good deal of value in the Labour price.
If we assume the polls are right (which I wouldn't necessarily but let's play the scenario for the moment), and there's a tiny Con lead then Labour should still have a lead in seats even allowing for Scotland. The UKPR advanced calculator reckons on it being about 290-276 to Labour based on current polling (with 17 Lib Dems and 67 others). That is tight but the uncertainties don't make Lab most seats a 5/1 shot to my mind.
Similarly, look at the 2005 figures for comparison. Labour finished ahead by 3%, of which almost half that lead came from Scotland, but won 355 seats. Knock off forty seats for Scotland and apply another 1% Lab-Con swing and you'd still be short of Con most seats.
The only possible conclusions are that the polls are wrong, or that there's a lot of value in the market. Indeed, even if the polls are wrong but only slightly so, there'd still be value. Furthermore, they'd have to be wrong in England (where it'd help the Tories) but not in Scotland (where it'd help Labour). Silly price.
It's also discounting the possibility the polls are wrong, but wrong in labours favour.
Not likely (and rather unintuitive) - but it's probably only a little less likely than the reverse.
Voted UKIP in Richmond Park which is heavily favoured to keep Zac Goldsmith (Tory) in power.
Nevertheless, I can impart that voting even this early is way above average for my local polling station in Barnes. I spoke to the tellers and the Tory and L/Dem reps standing outside and counting, and all confirm a very steady but fast stream of voters although no queuing as yet.
I think an announcement we'd just join the eurozone is beyond even him, however.
I'm much less concerned about the prospect of Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister than some on here and while those of a Conservative disposition might be sizing up the comfy chair of Opposition, the fact is Ed has surpassed many expectations in this campaign.
My view is that Ed M is a better politician than David Cameron - that doesn't make him a better Prime Minister - and his campaigning and that of his Party appears to have been effective.
The problem with the parliamentary Labour Party is going to be with the Unite candidates elected today. How large a faction will they be?
Shows how little activity down here is local election related - I didn't know there were any in Eastbourne today. I just looked them up and was Really??!
When I lived in Wealden - it was wall to wall placards in Polegate for the local candidates - that one tried to murder another is of course more gaiety for the nation.
Go back to your constituencies and prepare for opposition ?
@patrickwintour: Former LD leader Lord Steel in any Libdem vote after election will oppose any further coalition - party should recharge batteries & values.
Yes because the whole point of a political party is to be out of power.
For many members or supporters of the Lib Dems (or former ones), that was precisely the purpose of that party: to be a 'nice' opposition and provide an alternative to the nasty and/or incompetent parties of government. Clearly the flaw in that purpose was that were it electorally successful it would inevitably undermine first the conditions necessary to bring it about (being in opposition) and then the rationale itself. But as long as the self-destruct button could be avoided, they ran with it and left the long term to take care of itself.
What the purpose of the Lib Dems is now, goodness only knows.
Correct. There is none. Others elsewhere suggest changing leaders if there is a hung parliament. I cannot think of anything more stupid. Changing leaders is fraught with danger for any political party. BTW - in 1983 Mrs T had a nice increased majority - but lost votes and vote share (so much for the Falklands Factor). In 2001 Blair lost nearly 3 million votes and some seats. Did either party sack their leader?
Voted UKIP in Richmond Park which is heavily favoured to keep Zac Goldsmith (Tory) in power.
Nevertheless, I can impart that voting even this early is way above average for my local polling station in Barnes. I spoke to the tellers and the Tory and L/Dem reps standing outside and counting, and all confirm a very steady but fast stream of voters although no queuing as yet.
Interesting that the LDs are wasting resources there rather than shoring up Twickenham or Kingston.
ICM - Fieldwork has finished, they are just putting the final touches on it
Ipsos Mori - Fieldwork finished last night around 9pm - Should be out this morning before 12pm
Lord Ashcroft - I'm wilding speculating here, but it's a real effort to get the 3,000 strong sample size he wanted, so it may be he's having to continue to the fieldwork this morning, hence the delay.
Shows how little activity down here is local election related - I didn't know there were any in Eastbourne today. I just looked them up and was Really??!
When I lived in Wealden - it was wall to wall placards in Polegate for the local candidates - that one tried to murder another is of course more gaiety for the nation.
Go back to your constituencies and prepare for opposition ?
@patrickwintour: Former LD leader Lord Steel in any Libdem vote after election will oppose any further coalition - party should recharge batteries & values.
Yes because the whole point of a political party is to be out of power.
For many members or supporters of the Lib Dems (or former ones), that was precisely the purpose of that party: to be a 'nice' opposition and provide an alternative to the nasty and/or incompetent parties of government. Clearly the flaw in that purpose was that were it electorally successful it would inevitably undermine first the conditions necessary to bring it about (being in opposition) and then the rationale itself. But as long as the self-destruct button could be avoided, they ran with it and left the long term to take care of itself.
What the purpose of the Lib Dems is now, goodness only knows.
David Steel is no doubt influenced by his own experience following the 1976/78 Lib-Lab pact which led to a poor Liberal performance in the 1979 election. I feel he has become rather bitter and negative - a coalition would be better for the country than minority government, I think
We Lib Dems put country before party in 2010 . If as is likely we lose a number of seats because of it , then we will put party before country post today and there will be no Lib Dem coalition with either Labour or Conservatives
People realised you opposed the Iraq war for cynical electioneering reasons when you subsequently supported Libya and Syria. Getting what you deserve today.
Absolutely. And for peddling the myth that the markets would have collapsed if they had not made that decision. Now cloaking their self-serving opportunism "in the national interest."
@LadPolitics: Big queue at my polling station today. But that is a very small sample, so cannot help me decide on likely turnout. #breakingnews.
Mine looked busier than normal and from looking at the register, when my name was crossed off, a lot of other names were crossed off too. I was not able to linger because someone else was waiting for my booth when I was done.
Will it be a bigger turnout than expected?
Don't they have the complete electoral roll at polling stations with the postal ballot names crossed off the list. This will make it appear that there is a lot of activity whereas the postal ballots account for a lot of it early on.
Just getting my head round the swings required. I think 2% would deprive the Tories of the possibility of a workable coalition, 3% would make Labour the largest party and able to form a govt with SNP support and 4% would be enough for a Lab-LD arrangement. Is that about right?
Fine margins anyway and it might not be able to jump to any conclusions from the Sunderland results...
Comments
2005 - Hammersmith & Fulham
2010 - Vauxhall
2015 - Kingston & Surbiton
I missed out on voting in Slough in 2001 by less than 2 weeks
Both labour and tories would be well advised to quickly change their leaders if needed.
The problem with the parliamentary Labour Party is going to be with the Unite candidates elected today. How large a faction will they be?
Tories in ample evidence at Hampstead Heath station. No sign of any other parties.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/uk-general-election-campaign-pictures-2015-5#now-see-23
Local election only had a Tory and a Green. The collapse of the LibDems in the South Hams is remarkable. Hoping it has spread over the border to Torbay!
In any even the govt managed the recovery very well. In historic terms the recovery from such a deep recession - a depression - have generally been slow. Read econiomist David Smith's regular analyses in the Sunday Times. In his last column he points out nwhat he said in 2010 - he ''warned of a post-election hangover for the economy, whoever won. The eurozone crisis was intensifying, the banking system had not been fixed and deficit reduction was just getting going''.
The point about the banking system I think is well made since the banks had to rebuild their balance sheets which was always going to make borrowing and any recovery difficult.
These are all easy things for Labour and its cheerleaders, especially the cosy well off ones like Coogan, to forget. And the public have no concept of the Basle Rules and capital reserves.
And even I had almost forgot about all the rate fixing which went on when Balls and Brown were in charge and to be unearthed under the Tories.
Weston-super-Mare
Beaconsfield
City of London & W
E Worthing & Shoreham
Ceredigion
Woking
Woking
Woking
Out first thing to get shot of Gloria, which has a small possibility of happening if all the Lib Dem garden signs in our area - 20 in 800m of main road - are not just posturing. Polling station very quiet, but I am told there were a *lot* of postal votes in Ashfield.
This is the first election where I've dabbled with some bets - expecting a small profit of a few 10s of £, so thanks for all the comments over the last couple of months.
I'm now looking for a couple of spreadsheets, one to log bets for keeping track, and one for calculations. Any recommendations would be most welcome.
Prediction 1:
Tory - 286
Lab - 261
LD - 25
UKIP - 3
SNP - 50
PC - 4
NI - 18
Gallowanker - 1
Green - 1
Squeaker - 1
Prediction 2:
I predict that my prediction will be way off.
Looking forward to home truths about Nippy Nicky in the HoC when she tries to manipulate it from outside.
Let's say we end up at 270a piece and no coalition can be agreed or QS guaranteed to pass.
Let's make it 271-270 then, either way.
The smaller party might agree if the leader of the larger party resigns and so,some else becomes PM with the leader of the smaller party getting DPM/FS and pick of CoE, larger party getting HS/JS and PM, rest of posts distributed day 7:6 in favour of larger party on a pick portfolio basis, junior ministers split evenly?
Edit - or the unthinkable.... Agree a technocrat PM?!
@laurenlaverne: Hahaha (via @NadiaShireen) http://t.co/EMVQDGU52H
"Raising taxes to plug Britain’s deficit will not work, two founder members of the Bank of England’s panel that sets interest rates have warned."
http://tinyurl.com/knhnrn9
1997 - Romford
2001 - Cities of London & Westminster
2005 - Holborn & St Pancreas
2010 - SW Herts
2015 - Greenwich & Woolwich
If we assume the polls are right (which I wouldn't necessarily but let's play the scenario for the moment), and there's a tiny Con lead then Labour should still have a lead in seats even allowing for Scotland. The UKPR advanced calculator reckons on it being about 290-276 to Labour based on current polling (with 17 Lib Dems and 67 others). That is tight but the uncertainties don't make Lab most seats a 5/1 shot to my mind.
Similarly, look at the 2005 figures for comparison. Labour finished ahead by 3%, of which almost half that lead came from Scotland, but won 355 seats. Knock off forty seats for Scotland and apply another 1% Lab-Con swing and you'd still be short of Con most seats.
The only possible conclusions are that the polls are wrong, or that there's a lot of value in the market. Indeed, even if the polls are wrong but only slightly so, there'd still be value. Furthermore, they'd have to be wrong in England (where it'd help the Tories) but not in Scotland (where it'd help Labour). Silly price.
Which one(s) should I be drinking through the night?
Bunnahabhain
Highland Park
Laphroaig Quarter Cask
Inverey
Speyside
Royal Lochnagar
Glenfiddich
Oban
The Balvenie
Ardmore
Glenlivet
Glenmorangie
A far bigger challenge than choosing my vote.
"We LibDems put country before party in 2010" Is this the same party whose modus operandi at local level is to invent a problem which will be caused by its opposition and then claim to fight to stop the problem?
@LadPolitics: Big queue at my polling station today. But that is a very small sample, so cannot help me decide on likely turnout. #breakingnews.
We are all in the minority on here following the politics closely, in my view Miliband is a polished and articulate performer in set piece debates, or talking to an audience of supporters, I never thought he would trip up in a highly managed campaign. In those circumstances it was Cameron who is less comfortable and consistent. Under pressure in the Commons hothouse, no doubt for me Cameron is much superior, perhaps that's why so many close political followers under estimated Miliband, from all sides.
I am not against Labour per se, I have voted for them before I could possibly get behind Ed Balls who I rate, Umunna looks promising, Cooper is solid enough beyond that they look weak. Miliband has had over 4 years but has preferred opposition for opposition's sake and opportunism to putting a solid economic plan to put before the electorate. The Coalition overall in my opinion have done a decent job and I don't believe Miliband has done enough to deserve his chance. My hope is he get's to no more than 260 seats and Labour move forward with a better leader, not Burnham though he would be worse.
If Miliband does form a government the inevitable Balls v MaCluskey, Prentice and pals will be a fight well worth keeping a close eye on, could be very entertaining.
Well, my democratic duty is done and my votes are cast. I have plenty of time to make popcorn for later...
this was in the speccie article
"the gossip from the ground is that Helen Grant is toast in Maidstone and The Weald."
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/05/nervous-tory-candidates-say-race-too-tight-to-call/
I got 7/2 with Hills. Still available.
Quite possibly.
I'm keeping the faith, especially after reading that article on Shy Tories. A long and technical piece which details (sic) a solid, evidence-based argument to the effect that the ENTIRE polling system is broken so that there is a MASSIVE gap between them (all!) and l'actualité even if hardly anyone recognises it... YET.
It's a stunner if it turns out to be even half-true, but than again, look how Kellner has been hedging his bets. He may be a lefty but he is a businessman with an income stream to protect
Cheer up, SeanT.
Keep your trousers on, Mr Hodges.
Will it be a bigger turnout than expected?
My voting history:
1983 Romsey and Waterside SDP
1987 Wimbledon SDP/Lib Alliance
1992 Wolverhampton SW Labour
1997 Leicester South Labour
2001 Leicester South Labour
2005 Rutland and Melton LD
2010 Rutland and Melton Con
2015 Rutland and Melton LD
https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/593821367973326848/photo/1
Not likely (and rather unintuitive) - but it's probably only a little less likely than the reverse.
Nevertheless, I can impart that voting even this early is way above average for my local polling station in Barnes. I spoke to the tellers and the Tory and L/Dem reps standing outside and counting, and all confirm a very steady but fast stream of voters although no queuing as yet.
When I lived in Wealden - it was wall to wall placards in Polegate for the local candidates - that one tried to murder another is of course more gaiety for the nation.
sussexexpress.co.uk/news/county-news/breaking-news-former-polegate-councillor-sentenced-to-20-years-in-prison-for-attempted-murder-of-his-wife-1-6702521
Others elsewhere suggest changing leaders if there is a hung parliament. I cannot think of anything more stupid. Changing leaders is fraught with danger for any political party. BTW - in 1983 Mrs T had a nice increased majority - but lost votes and vote share (so much for the Falklands Factor). In 2001 Blair lost nearly 3 million votes and some seats. Did either party sack their leader?
Lib Dems starting to get the knives out on Clegg.
ICM - Fieldwork has finished, they are just putting the final touches on it
Ipsos Mori - Fieldwork finished last night around 9pm - Should be out this morning before 12pm
Lord Ashcroft - I'm wilding speculating here, but it's a real effort to get the 3,000 strong sample size he wanted, so it may be he's having to continue to the fieldwork this morning, hence the delay.
Fine margins anyway and it might not be able to jump to any conclusions from the Sunderland results...