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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE 2015 – the view of the spread betting trader
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE 2015 – the view of the spread betting trader
The regulars of this parish will no doubt be very familiar with our host’s frequent highlighting of the difference in Sporting Index’s Conservative seats price and our Labour seats price. Why is it that this market seems so different from most pollsters’ forecasts or the many predictions being made by the new and growing breed of academics?
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It'll be the same in Pong Towers.
And what's this talk of Labour having a chance in Canterbury - Surely Julian "King of the Road" Brazier can't be moved!
Ipsos +5
Ashcroft +2
Opinium +1
ComRes +1
TNS +1
Survation 0
YouGov 0
BMG 0
ICM 0
Populus 0
Panelbase -2
Yes?
When the data suggests one thing and the "mood music" (read: the number of Tory posters you see on your drive to work, the voting intention of your window cleaner, your gut) suggests another, it is wise to go with the numbers. Ed for PM and Labour most seats both represent very good value, I've piled on.
Plus the ICM final poll will be updated for more interviews (but it can't move much as I think about 75% of the poll is in the numbers already announced).
Plus there MAY also be a final Populus.
Which is different to normal YouGovs which are only done over 2 days - normally the poll announced on Wed night would have been done approx Tue 5pm to Wed 3pm.
Of course this one has a much larger sample size which might be the reason.
Con 306 -44 to Lab, -3 to Ukip, +14 from LD, -1 to SNP = 272
Lab 258 +44 from Con, +9 from LD, -32 to SNP = 279
SNP 48, LD 25, Ukip 3, PC 3, Green 1, Respect 1.
The only easy targets I have Labour missing are Blackpool N, Kingswood, Gloucester, Worcester. The difficult targets I have them getting are Harrow E, Ealing C, Rossendale, Peterborough, MKS, S Ribble, Finchley.
But I'm still sceptical. 44 Labour gains from Conservative sounds too many, and looking down the list I can imagine quite a few that Labour might've missed, especially if there has been a slight upturn for Con and if, as is generally thought to be the case, Con voters are more likely to actually show up at the polling station.
But I am tempted now to do a little last-minute value betting against the general trend.
London 4.5%
South 4.6%
East 6.7%
Mids 3.0%
Wales 2.0%
North 3.5%
based on the Yougov 10000.
England, Scotland and Wales separately calculated by UNS.
LAB 283
CON 271
SNP 52
LD 17
UKIP 3*
PC 3
GRN 1
RES 1*
SPK 1
NI 18
Total 650
* Only 4 seats were not calculated by UNS. Three have been manually adjusted for UKIP. Clacton, Thanet S from Con and Thurrock from Labour. One for Respect from Labour.
No other statistical adjustments have been done.
and, a very Good Morning to all !
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/05/06/22/2862C6CB00000578-0-image-a-46_1430949255075.jpg
Are we all excited? ;-)
Good luck to all the candidates and canvassers on PB!!
Let's hope they all lose :-)
Whoever you support - VOTE - either that or STFU for the next five years (or five months, if it ends up like that....)
Of course Guernsey has no direct role in the election - though I think it would be fair to say we're not looking forward to a government one of whose front benchers recently asked 'who is Guernsey's MP?
The more information page led to:
http://www.aboutmyvote.co.uk/how-do-i-vote/voting-in-person
Best wishes to all out there trudging the pavements doing their bit vor democracy today.
Which poll shows the 'very strong late surge'? ;-)
" Who knows? To be honest I've not given it much thought, since if, God forbid, we do end up with Ed Miliband in No 10, there will be much more important things to worry about than David Cameron. In any case his place in history as one of the very best post-war PMs is already assured."
Have you ever thought about doing 'stand-up'?
I'll leave you all in suspense until after I place my cross.
The young 'un will also be coming with us, so he'll get to see democracy in action at an early age.
Major's reputation seems to have been rehabilitated since he left power. Blair and Brown's have both plummeted. Time will tell which way Cameron's will go: Richard might well be correct.
Also make sure no taxes that would be payable in the UK is hidden. All accounts must be transparent to the BoE and HMRC.
" I think he's already started, he's the Sussex Bernard Manning"
Did you hear the one about the 'near perfect Chancellor'?
I think Cameron will be judged by his own benchmark that he'd make a pretty good PM, whereas he's been pretty average.
Cameron always strikes me as someone who has underachieved his potential.
"Under democracy one party always devotes its chief energies to trying to prove that the other party is unfit to rule - and both commonly succeed, and are right"
H.L.Menken ( Journalist and Scholar)
Of course, the whole point of UNS with large numbers to play with like England [ 533 ], is that while you lose some, you win some back too !
So here it is, the calm before the storm. Good luck to all candidates and supporters. Well done to anyone involved in the organisation and counting, you have a very responsible job. For the rest of us, vote, work, sleep, get up in time for the exit poll, count winnings as they come in (hopefully!!).
Fingers crossed we will have a result with a feasible government at the end of it, rather than the predicted chaos!
That's why he'll lose. In pure administrative terms, the competence of this government has been quite good - and much better than Labour - particularly on jobs, tax, economy, infrastructure, science, pensions, welfare and education reform.
To my mind, Labour most seats was value and still is.
But, DYOR.
The final set of polls last night seemed to me to make the Conservatives being the largest party almost impossible and one simply has to apply the regional swings from Yougov to see how seats are going to fall.
I have frankly not understood Tory party strategy at all. They have spent their time chasing a couple of dozen Lib Dem seats and not done nearly enough to fight the 50-60 seats they are going to lose to Labour today. It seems bizarre to me, particularly when their only chance of maintaining power was to go into a second coalition with the same Lib Dem party diminished by the loss of the seats they are chasing.
Only the disaster in Scotland is going to stop Ed having an overall majority today. I think Labour most seats is inevitable despite this. It frankly depresses me that firstly in the referendum and now in the GE such a large percentage of our population put so little weight on fiscal sanity, sound government, sound money and a recognition that the State has to be paid for. But that's the way it is and today the Tories are going to suffer the consequences. In Scotland of course the people in their wisdom have determined that Labour is not lunatic enough and have found something even more unrealistic.
I expect Cameron to have resigned by this time tomorrow.
If I had a spare £20,000 in cash, I would just bung it all on there now.
The problem is we are too close to the situation at the moment; his political history is still being written (and may continue for another few years). But whatever happens, I cannot see him being judged worse than his two predecessors.
You might enjoy this - http://www.amazon.co.uk/How-To-Be-Little-Sod/dp/0752836935
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastbourne_by-election,_1990
Eastbourne like Brighton ceased being an easy tory seat a few decades ago.
You can give the labour stuff a rest now you know? Even the old politicians aren't canvassing today.
Regardless of this, I don't think there is any possibility of a Queens speech being voted down, If Cameron isn't 100% certain it'll pass then he'll not write one. A monarchs speech hasn't failed to pass in 91 years
Ungrateful b****rs that we are.
I don't think that at this point anything I say will make much difference, so I'll offer a prediction.
LAB 280
CON 271
SNP 50
LD 24
UKIP 2 (Carswell and Farage)
PC 3
GRN 1
SPK 1
NI 18
Total 650
But keep in mind that I only know much about the East Midlands - otherwise I'm just guessing. We expect to take at least half our target seats. In my patch there was what felt like a late shift yesterday to Labour - we were getting people who had told us a month ago that they were probably UKIP (we recanvassed them at the risk of stirring them up because in my patch if they do go and vote UKIP, it won't affect the outcome). But it's possible that Con-UKIP people were going Con, who knows? I do think UKIP will underperform compared with polls, though I reckon name recognition will see Farage home.
YouGov's methology changed at data point number 71 and took 5 days to fully impact upon the moving average.
Despite painting differing stories, the final data points have ended up within a whisker of each other. Con 34.2 v 33.8, Lab 33 v 33.4, UKIP 12.4 v 11.8, LD 9.6 v 9.6, and Green 4.3 v 4.8
1. The retail side. Getting elected, managing people, aligning factions, driving belief - basically the whole art of shaping opinion and putting yourself in a position to be able to deliver on your beliefs (assuming you have any in the first place); and
2. The managerial side. Delivering well and competently when in power. This means making the country a better place. It does not necessarily mean being able to force through a ruinous agenda.
Blair (and the Labour party generally) excel at 1. But suck harder than the vacuum of deep space at 2.
Dave (and the Tory party generally) are really very good at 2. But suck way more than is acceptable at 1.
Thus Blair and Dave are examples of potentially great but in fact deeply flawed politicians. The true political greats have strength in both dimensions.
I've actually met Simon Brett, and enjoy his Fethering series. Although he seemed a little put-out when I asked him about his (small) role in getting Hitchhikers Guide onto the radio. I think he gets asked about it too much. ;-)
I can see why you might be upset about that.
#PBliveson
I see you are giving Thurrock to Labour. My gut instincts say that too. Let's see.