politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two polls so far – Populus remains level pegging while CON

Casino_Royale said:

JEO said:

The_Apocalypse said:

The trouble with UKIP is that many of their members believe in an ideology of hate; towards ethnic minorities, women, gays, blame foreigners for nearly every problem in the country - there's an awful lot of people they don't like. For that reason, I doubt they'll become a mainstream force. Realistically, someone less extreme - like Carswell - needs to lead that party. But I don't sense Kippers are very keen on him. And looking at the new Mirror comments section, it looks like the Kippers have invaded there, too.

I don't think that is accurate at all. In my experience most UKIP supporters are decent people, who are mainly motivated to vote UKIP by high levels of immigration and disillusionment with the political class. The image of them as some sort of neo-Nazis is simply not one I recognise and I can not believe anyone that has gone out talking to voters genuinely believes such a thing.

I also find this stereotyping highly counter-productive to the Conservative cause. If you tell people they are awful people, it just puts their backs up and gets them to hate the elitist mentality even more. The best way to win back Kippers into the Conservative fold is to do make sure their concerns are addressed, and then present clear evidence of that to them.

I wish there were more Conservatives like you.

Yup,they'd be heading for a majority

ComRes at 10pm apparently

Artist said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

McCluskey campaigned in Pudsey, Elment, Calder Valley and Dewsbury today

Birmingham Ladywood CLP election day planning meeting held today
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEL3O3FWoAAHDRz.jpg

the activists don't look particularly excited...

Calder Valley is an interesting one. I had a few quid on Labour at 9/4 earlier today, following a favorable comment from a well-respected source.

It's at the outer limit of likely Labour gains, but local factors seem to be helping them.

I think the same, a notable omission from Ashcroft's marginal polling.

It's Target Seat 91 according to Antony Wells but that may be a bit misleading.

Labour stuffed up the candidacy in 2010 and nearly dropped to 3rd place behind the LDs as a consequence. They have a much better candidate this time around, and of course a lot of LD votes to squeeze. Now I hear the Tory Candidate has got himself into a little local tangle.

Source suggested Labour should be 5/4 so naturally I had to take the 9/4 on offer with B365.

antifrank said:

More expectation management in the FT, this time more helpful to Ed Miliband:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/91307514-f335-11e4-a979-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk#axzz3Z6B0YJwe

"Labour still believes it could form a more durable coalition than the Tories even if it comes 20 or 30 seats behind David Cameron’s party and has identified “considerable overlap” in policy with the Lib Dems.

Senior Labour figures believe that it will become obvious quickly on Friday if Mr Cameron “doesn’t have the numbers” at which point Ed Miliband would urge him to quit.

If Mr Cameron clung on and put together a Queen’s Speech with no majority Labour MPs would have no qualms in joining forces with the SNP in voting it down, according to eight party candidates who have spoken to the FT.

Some senior party figures recognise that putting together a rival grouping could prove difficult if the public believe that the Tories “won” the election."

If Labour are 20-30 seats behind the Tories then it's pretty likely that Con > Lab + LD. The press would have a field day.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Artist said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

McCluskey campaigned in Pudsey, Elment, Calder Valley and Dewsbury today

Birmingham Ladywood CLP election day planning meeting held today
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEL3O3FWoAAHDRz.jpg

the activists don't look particularly excited...

Calder Valley is an interesting one. I had a few quid on Labour at 9/4 earlier today, following a favorable comment from a well-respected source.

It's at the outer limit of likely Labour gains, but local factors seem to be helping them.

I think the same, a notable omission from Ashcroft's marginal polling.

It's Target Seat 91 according to Antony Wells but that may be a bit misleading.

Labour stuffed up the candidacy in 2010 and nearly dropped to 3rd place behind the LDs as a consequence. They have a much better candidate this time around, and of course a lot of LD votes to squeeze. Now I hear the Tory Candidate has got himself into a little local tangle.

Source suggested Labour should be 5/4 so naturally I had to take the 9/4 on offer with B365.

Seems a value bet at the odds you found. Good work.

isam said:

Amazing that we have three polls today, UKIP on 12, 13 & 16%, and people are saying 1-2 seats

How?

People that used to say 6-7% and no seats before Carswell defected, now think that vote share will double with, in effect, no seats gained

Wishful thinking

No right thinking person wants a racist party to get any seats.

The_Apocalypse said:

The trouble with UKIP is that many of their members believe in an ideology of hate; towards ethnic minorities, women, gays, blame foreigners for nearly every problem in the country - there's an awful lot of people they don't like. For that reason, I doubt they'll become a mainstream force. Realistically, someone less extreme - like Carswell - needs to lead that party. But I don't sense Kippers are very keen on him. And looking at the new Mirror comments section, it looks like the Kippers have invaded there, too.

Committed left wingers believe that the Conservatives have an ideology of hate; Scottish Nationalists believe that their opponents have an ideology of hate; and vice versa; plenty of Tories argue that socialists hate Britain.

Outside the ranks of partisans, none of this is very persuasive.

Richard_Tyndall said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

RT I think UKIP will get 10% and 4 seats including Farage winning Thanet South

Given Cameron will probably need DUP and UKIP support for a majority he will have to stick to a referendum though I agree he would likely end up on the In side

There is no 'likely' about it. He has made it absolutely clear he would never countenance the UK withdrawing from the EU.

I think one of the problems that Conservative Europhiles have is that they talk about UKIP as wanting a referendum. A referendum is not the ultimate goal of UKIP; leaving the EU is the ultimate goal. If Cameron delivers a referendum, and Britain votes to stay in the EU, that will not make Kippers say "Oh! We voted to stay in, well that's OK then...", on the contrary, like Scots nats, they will continue to work towards their aim.

And I think you're absolutely right that having Cameron as head of a Conservative government leading a referendum makes it very difficult for Out to win. But I also think that the Out side is its own worst enemy. I've made my views very clear, and I think a government committed to EFTA/EEA would win the support of much business, and would win a referendum.

I think an Out campaign run by Farage, and which could be painted as isolationist and backward looking would lose.

(Did anyone read the UKIP paper on leaving the EU? There was a whole chapter on recreating the Commonwealth as a trading block. It was seemingly unaware that the two largest members of the Commonwealth are nuclear weapon wielding enemies who are as likely to get into bed together as TSE and MikeK.)

Just on that point of GDP. The Commonwealth GDP is currently 2.6% larger than the Eurozone and according to the IMF the Commonwealth GDP is expected to grow by almost 30% by 2050 whereas the Eurozone GDP is expected to shrink slightly in the same period.

Whilst personally I do not agree with any sort of trade isolation from the EU, the idea that we should remained shackled to a stagnating economic bloc whilst the rest of the world powers ahead seems pretty ludicrous to me. And that is just the economics. Of course the cost to the UK of EU membership is far higher than just pounds and pence.

Just on relative GDPs, the IMF has nominal GDP (which is the one we need to use, as that's the value of trade) of the Commonwealth as $10.5trn, and the EU as $18.5trn. On a PPP basis, the Commonwealth goes to $14.5trn.

This is not to invalidate your general point, of course :-)

JEO said:

The_Apocalypse said:

JEO said:

The_Apocalypse said:

The trouble with UKIP is that many of their members believe in an ideology of hate; towards ethnic minorities, women, gays, blame foreigners for nearly every problem in the country - there's an awful lot of people they don't like. For that reason, I doubt they'll become a mainstream force. Realistically, someone less extreme - like Carswell - needs to lead that party. But I don't sense Kippers are very keen on him. And looking at the new Mirror comments section, it looks like the Kippers have invaded there, too.

I don't think that is accurate at all. In my experience most UKIP supporters are decent people, who are mainly motivated to vote UKIP by high levels of immigration and disillusionment with the political class. The image of them as some sort of neo-Nazis is simply not one I recognise and I can not believe anyone that has gone out talking to voters genuinely believes such a thing.

I also find this stereotyping highly counter-productive to the Conservative cause. If you tell people they are awful people, it just puts their backs up and gets them to hate the elitist mentality even more. The best way to win back Kippers into the Conservative fold is to do make sure their concerns are addressed, and then present clear evidence of that to them.

I'm not a conservative - I don't belong to any political party, although I'm centre-left. And well, I guess that my impression of the UKIP support base is from what they say online - and an awful lot of Ukippers appear to express thoughts along the lines I've outlined.

That explains it. I do not believe the internet is a good representation of any group. Whether UKIP voters, feminists or animal rights proponents, every group seems like intolerant extremists online if you try to debate them. I guess it is just a small handful that are particularly animated dominating the conversation, because they can do it behind the veil of anonymity.

In general people are angrier and less tolerant online than in person.. its the same for everyone, but some like to pick and choose who it applies to

ComRes at 10pm and an 'interesting' BMG poll. Turning into a big polling night

another_richard said:

Artist said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

McCluskey campaigned in Pudsey, Elment, Calder Valley and Dewsbury today

Birmingham Ladywood CLP election day planning meeting held today
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEL3O3FWoAAHDRz.jpg

the activists don't look particularly excited...

Calder Valley is an interesting one. I had a few quid on Labour at 9/4 earlier today, following a favorable comment from a well-respected source.

It's at the outer limit of likely Labour gains, but local factors seem to be helping them.

I think the same, a notable omission from Ashcroft's marginal polling.

If Labour gain Calder Valley they should be on 290+ MPs.

Possible but very unlikely IMO and there's much better odds on Lab most seats.

As the Conservatives now seem to think that Halifax is their one remaining chance of a gain from Labour it means someone is reading Calderdale borough all wrong.

No, that's not right, Richard.

Labour could win just 30 seats and Calder Valley be one of them. Conversely they could win 60 and lose Halifax.

Local factors. (These have been mentioned here on earlier threads.)

Razedabode said:

ComRes at 10pm and an 'interesting' BMG poll. Turning into a big polling night

Can someone explain to me the circumstances in which an opinion poll released two days before a general election would not be billed as "interesting"?

Wow I had not noticed the OxWAb boundary changes - I was in that seat when at Oxford (voted for the Tory Harris in 1997), but would have been Oxford East now.

So the posh part of Oxford (North) stayed in, but most of the students in the centre moved to Ox East. Con hold then

Sean_F said:

The_Apocalypse said:

The trouble with UKIP is that many of their members believe in an ideology of hate; towards ethnic minorities, women, gays, blame foreigners for nearly every problem in the country - there's an awful lot of people they don't like. For that reason, I doubt they'll become a mainstream force. Realistically, someone less extreme - like Carswell - needs to lead that party. But I don't sense Kippers are very keen on him. And looking at the new Mirror comments section, it looks like the Kippers have invaded there, too.

Committed left wingers believe that the Conservatives have an ideology of hate; Scottish Nationalists believe that their opponents have an ideology of hate; and vice versa; plenty of Tories argue that socialists hate Britain.

Outside the ranks of partisans, none of this is very persuasive.

It wasn't intended to persuade; it was an expression of an opinion. I don't believe the Conservatives have an ideology of hate; just that they have some very unpleasant people within their ranks. Beside rapid Cyber-Nats I doubt SNP supporters actually believe any who disagrees with them believes in an ideology of hate. And given how divisive UKIP are, I'd say there are many who do view them in this way - just as there are many who do not.

bigjohnowls said:

Jaz said:

Razedabode said:

I agree with the yougov thing. Why is Keller so adamant the Tories will win most seats when the polls as a whole tell us otherwise? Or is this just an 'unpollable' election. Probably just best waiting for the actual result now, as this election is just bizarre.

If you take the raw yougov number, and assume UNS on E&W, labour should come out ahead. Ashcroft polls suggest UNS is not likely, and may (by not naming candidates) masking an incumbancy effect.

That said, the evidence suggests level pegging nationally, and tories very slightly ahead in E&W. This would suggest (not accounting for incumbancy effect) that labour and the tories will be very close in total seats.

Yet Tories are 1.23 most seats

Lab 5.2

Bizarre, I think the Lab being largest party might be good value.

That said I really believe in forecast modelling. Electionforecast is predicting 267-281 margin on a simulated 1.9% tory lead and the LDs close to 12%, and UKIP on 11%. Recent polls show the LDs doing worse, and UKIP doing a lot better than their model suggests.

Casino_Royale said:

JEO said:

The_Apocalypse said:

The trouble with UKIP is that many of their members believe in an ideology of hate; towards ethnic minorities, women, gays, blame foreigners for nearly every problem in the country - there's an awful lot of people they don't like. For that reason, I doubt they'll become a mainstream force. Realistically, someone less extreme - like Carswell - needs to lead that party. But I don't sense Kippers are very keen on him. And looking at the new Mirror comments section, it looks like the Kippers have invaded there, too.

I don't think that is accurate at all. In my experience most UKIP supporters are decent people, who are mainly motivated to vote UKIP by high levels of immigration and disillusionment with the political class. The image of them as some sort of neo-Nazis is simply not one I recognise and I can not believe anyone that has gone out talking to voters genuinely believes such a thing.

I also find this stereotyping highly counter-productive to the Conservative cause. If you tell people they are awful people, it just puts their backs up and gets them to hate the elitist mentality even more. The best way to win back Kippers into the Conservative fold is to do make sure their concerns are addressed, and then present clear evidence of that to them.

I wish there were more Conservatives like you.

One hears plenty of arguments that the Conservatives "hate" the poor, disabled, ethnic minorities etc. And of course, these arguments are bollocks. Why some Conservatives think it serves their interests to parrot these arguments against UKIP is strange.

Dair said:

isam said:

Amazing that we have three polls today, UKIP on 12, 13 & 16%, and people are saying 1-2 seats

How?

People that used to say 6-7% and no seats before Carswell defected, now think that vote share will double with, in effect, no seats gained

Wishful thinking

What happened to UKIP 18% ?

UKIP will be doing well with 2 seats. You should be happy with that.

Who said 18%?

You said 7%, what happened to that?

Luckyguy1983 said:

rcs1000 said:

MikeK said:

All parties have there stupids; this suspended kipper is an ex Tory, so go figure. A kipper was badly beaten up by 5 thugs yesterday. The fact is UKIP is growing and getting stronger and both @TSE and @rcs1000 cannot stand it, hence their bile and a smear whenever they see a chance.

@MikeK: what are you talking about?

And what bile? The only poster for whom I have bile on this site is @FalseFlag, a man whose sole mission in life is to big up Vladamir Putin.

My ambition - as I've often stated - is a looser relationship with the EU, but one which preserves freedom of labour. (This means EFTA/EEA - and which results in i., no benefits for migrants, ii. no right to remain if without a job, and iii., the ability to kick people out if they commit a crime.) I realise this is less than what UKIP stands for. And I realise there are few people standing up for freedom of people to work where they like, and to hire who they like.

I think the rise of UKIP makes my dream far less likely. Sometimes I wonder if Nigel Farage is in the pay of the EU; essentially creating a caricature of Eurosceptics.

This is naive. UKIP are not creating a caricature of eurosceptics, they are eurosceptics, therefore they are being caricatured.

There were 137 cases of paedophilia, racism, homophobia, fraud and other controversial behaviour amongst other party councillors and activists in March and April alone: http://nopenothope.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/137-liblabcon-paedos-racists-homophobes.html

Did you actually read the link you posted?

Actually, very few of the "137" links on that page refer to members of the LibLabConspiracy being guilty (or even being accused) of paedophillia, racism, etc. etc. And many of the links refer to things that happened some time in the past. And a number of them are duplicates.

So, there are two stories about Oxford council having swept alleagations under the carpet. But while incompetence, lazyness and political correctness are serious issues, they are not the same as Oxford councillors being guilty of paedophilia, etc.

If your point was: there are scumbags in all political parties, then no shit sherlock.

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

JEO said:

The_Apocalypse said:

The trouble with UKIP is that many of their members believe in an ideology of hate; towards ethnic minorities, women, gays, blame foreigners for nearly every problem in the country - there's an awful lot of people they don't like. For that reason, I doubt they'll become a mainstream force. Realistically, someone less extreme - like Carswell - needs to lead that party. But I don't sense Kippers are very keen on him. And looking at the new Mirror comments section, it looks like the Kippers have invaded there, too.

I don't think that is accurate at all. In my experience most UKIP supporters are decent people, who are mainly motivated to vote UKIP by high levels of immigration and disillusionment with the political class. The image of them as some sort of neo-Nazis is simply not one I recognise and I can not believe anyone that has gone out talking to voters genuinely believes such a thing.

I also find this stereotyping highly counter-productive to the Conservative cause. If you tell people they are awful people, it just puts their backs up and gets them to hate the elitist mentality even more. The best way to win back Kippers into the Conservative fold is to do make sure their concerns are addressed, and then present clear evidence of that to them.

I wish there were more Conservatives like you.

One hears plenty of arguments that the Conservatives "hate" the poor, disabled, ethnic minorities etc. And of course, these arguments are bollocks. Why some Conservatives think it serves their interests to parrot these arguments against UKIP is strange.

To be fair to Dave (and I'm not often) when he made his famous remarks about Ukip they probably won't polling above 1%. Yet his remarks in 2006(?) have been turned into an insult to all Ukip supporters of 2015 which is obviously nonsense.

JonCisBack said:

philiph said:

JonCisBack said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

The anecdotal evidence and the mood music continues to be much better for the Tories than the polls. In my opinion the 2010 Tory vote is pretty rock solid where it matters with the drift to UKIP only being significant where Labour are not competitive.

In some seats this will not be enough as the red Liberals get Labour over the top. I expect Broxtowe to be one of these but the number is not large. Labour are likely to lose at least 35 seats in Scotland. Will they make that number of gains to get back to their current level? The polls say yes but the anecdotes say not.

It is possible that this is all some Romneyian delusion, that the polls are right and that Labour are going to walk this. It just does not feel like that.

Today, driving home in monsoon conditions from Glasgow I was listening to R5 in Warwickshire. Almost everyone they spoke to was voting tory or UKIP. They eventually found a Labour voter but he was only 95%. The 5% was Miliband, he was just not sure about him.

This is Labour's number 1 target and Ed was there today. Why is he in a target lower than 50? Are their polling figures that bad?

I can think of a few reasons why Ed might pop into North Warwickshire. It's on the way to a lot of other places, for example

There was a sign not too far from us which said "welcome to bedfordshire, central to the Oxford-Cambridge arc"

Which is almost unparalleled in its desperate barrel-scraping banality. Somehow I was reminded of this reading your post :-)

I assume a legacy of what I think was a Cambridge - Bedford - Oxford rail link in the old days.

I may miss remember this. I expect there is a rail expert on here who will know!

It lasted about 2 years. It was replaced with "welcome to Bedfordshire - a progressive county"

Which means precisely f*ck all as well.

now it says

"welcome to Bedfordshire"

...

Perhaps they no longer have enough money to pay some marketing consultant to invent idiotic slogans.

rcs1000/RT It is all relative of course, in 50-100 years time the average European will still be richer than the average citizen of the rest of the world, however the rest of the world is certainly going to grow faster than the EU. Personally I would want to keep strong links with both the EU and Commonwealth, although it was certainly sensible that we stayed out of the Euro

Jaz said:

bigjohnowls said:

Jaz said:

Razedabode said:

I agree with the yougov thing. Why is Keller so adamant the Tories will win most seats when the polls as a whole tell us otherwise? Or is this just an 'unpollable' election. Probably just best waiting for the actual result now, as this election is just bizarre.

If you take the raw yougov number, and assume UNS on E&W, labour should come out ahead. Ashcroft polls suggest UNS is not likely, and may (by not naming candidates) masking an incumbancy effect.

That said, the evidence suggests level pegging nationally, and tories very slightly ahead in E&W. This would suggest (not accounting for incumbancy effect) that labour and the tories will be very close in total seats.

Yet Tories are 1.23 most seats

Lab 5.2

Bizarre, I think the Lab being largest party might be good value.

That said I really believe in forecast modelling. Electionforecast is predicting 267-281 margin on a simulated 1.9% tory lead and the LDs close to 12%, and UKIP on 11%. Recent polls show the LDs doing worse, and UKIP doing a lot better than their model suggests.

If your model is accurate, the two prices should be much closer together - say 1.5 Con, 3.1 Labour.

isam said:

SquareRoot said:

isam said:

Amazing that we have three polls today, UKIP on 12, 13 & 16%, and people are saying 1-2 seats

How?

People that used to say 6-7% and no seats before Carswell defected, now think that vote share will double with, in effect, no seats gained

Wishful thinking

No right thinking person wants a racist party to get any seats.

Oooh cutting

But what does it matter what people want to happen? How is that relevant? Who was talking about that?

Square root of nothing added, as per

You can whine all you like... UKIP are a racist party.. they just try to hide it..

MarkHopkins said:

antifrank said:

Razedabode said:

ComRes at 10pm and an 'interesting' BMG poll. Turning into a big polling night

Can someone explain to me the circumstances in which an opinion poll released two days before a general election would not be billed as "interesting"?

Amusing if, just for once, they wrote: "another boring poll tonight".

Indeed. Who wants to predict tonight's SnoozeGov? I'm going to go for a +1 Lab lead.

SquareRoot said:

isam said:

SquareRoot said:

isam said:

Amazing that we have three polls today, UKIP on 12, 13 & 16%, and people are saying 1-2 seats

How?

People that used to say 6-7% and no seats before Carswell defected, now think that vote share will double with, in effect, no seats gained

Wishful thinking

No right thinking person wants a racist party to get any seats.

Oooh cutting

But what does it matter what people want to happen? How is that relevant? Who was talking about that?

Square root of nothing added, as per

You can whine all you like... UKIP are a racist party.. they just try to hide it..

Who is whining? Your shite posts are good entertainment, irrelevant as they are

NoEasyDay said:

DavidL said:

I don't want to get too excited (although it is pretty exciting) but I got an e-mail from SamCam today. She's been out with that other slightly less interesting David don't you know.

she e-mailed me too mate, your welcome though.

She emailed me as well.

Sounds like my kind of girl

isam said:

Dair said:

isam said:

Amazing that we have three polls today, UKIP on 12, 13 & 16%, and people are saying 1-2 seats

How?

People that used to say 6-7% and no seats before Carswell defected, now think that vote share will double with, in effect, no seats gained

Wishful thinking

What happened to UKIP 18% ?

UKIP will be doing well with 2 seats. You should be happy with that.

Who said 18%?

You said 7%, what happened to that?

When?

Jaz said:

bigjohnowls said:

Jaz said:

Razedabode said:

I agree with the yougov thing. Why is Keller so adamant the Tories will win most seats when the polls as a whole tell us otherwise? Or is this just an 'unpollable' election. Probably just best waiting for the actual result now, as this election is just bizarre.

If you take the raw yougov number, and assume UNS on E&W, labour should come out ahead. Ashcroft polls suggest UNS is not likely, and may (by not naming candidates) masking an incumbancy effect.

That said, the evidence suggests level pegging nationally, and tories very slightly ahead in E&W. This would suggest (not accounting for incumbancy effect) that labour and the tories will be very close in total seats.

Yet Tories are 1.23 most seats

Lab 5.2

Bizarre, I think the Lab being largest party might be good value.

That said I really believe in forecast modelling. Electionforecast is predicting 267-281 margin on a simulated 1.9% tory lead and the LDs close to 12%, and UKIP on 11%. Recent polls show the LDs doing worse, and UKIP doing a lot better than their model suggests.

In that case you may be interested to learn that as of today Prof. Stephen Fisher's Elections, etc., who let's be honest OGH has largely chosen to ignore from the outset, has the Tories on 289 seats, comfortably ahead of Labour on 257 seats.
You pays yer money .....

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 33s33 seconds ago
Latest BMG poll (03 - 05 May):
CON - 34% (-1)
LAB - 34% (+2)
UKIP - 12% (-2)
LDEM - 10% (-1)
GRN - 4% (+1)

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 49s50 seconds ago
Latest BMG poll (03 - 05 May):
CON - 34% (-1)
LAB - 34% (+2)
UKIP - 12% (-2)
LDEM - 10% (-1)
GRN - 4% (+1)

all polls now looking at Ed being PM.

WELL DONE CROSBY - should have stuck to the economy.

isam said:

Dair said:

SquareRoot said:

isam said:

Amazing that we have three polls today, UKIP on 12, 13 & 16%, and people are saying 1-2 seats

How?

People that used to say 6-7% and no seats before Carswell defected, now think that vote share will double with, in effect, no seats gained

Wishful thinking

No right thinking person wants a racist party to get any seats.

Indeed, dress it up as they want, NF, BNP, EDL, UKIP, they are all parties that no-one should ever consider voting for.

Whats your predicted vote share for the EDL and NF?

It's all been swallowed up by their current UKIP brand.

Polls are all converging on somewhere between Lab lead of 1 and Con lead of 2, it seems.

Will be very interesting to see if ICM and MORI move to the same territory.

Tonights BMG EICIPM Lab likely most seats

Still 5.2

Razedabode said:

bigjohnowls said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 49s50 seconds ago
Latest BMG poll (03 - 05 May):
CON - 34% (-1)
LAB - 34% (+2)
UKIP - 12% (-2)
LDEM - 10% (-1)
GRN - 4% (+1)

Corker of a poll.

His Crapness of Number 10 has a certain ring to it.

surbiton said:

Chameleon said:

antifrank said:

More expectation management in the FT, this time more helpful to Ed Miliband:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/91307514-f335-11e4-a979-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk#axzz3Z6B0YJwe

"Labour still believes it could form a more durable coalition than the Tories even if it comes 20 or 30 seats behind David Cameron’s party and has identified “considerable overlap” in policy with the Lib Dems.

Senior Labour figures believe that it will become obvious quickly on Friday if Mr Cameron “doesn’t have the numbers” at which point Ed Miliband would urge him to quit.

If Mr Cameron clung on and put together a Queen’s Speech with no majority Labour MPs would have no qualms in joining forces with the SNP in voting it down, according to eight party candidates who have spoken to the FT.

Some senior party figures recognise that putting together a rival grouping could prove difficult if the public believe that the Tories “won” the election."

If Labour are 20-30 seats behind the Tories then it's pretty likely that Con > Lab + LD. The press would have a field day.

I always thought in a parliamentary democracy you had to win the votes in the HoC. If I accepted the argument that the Tories had somehow "won", even though they were nowhere near 323 MPs even with their allies, what is the opposition supposed to do, just meekly accept it ?

We both know that. However that is also completely irrelevant to the general public. They will see losers ganging up to try and lock the rightful winners out of power - and will give them a kicking in the ballot booth for it.

Lab most seats still nailed on.

SeanT said:

Oooh. Timed that well!

Hah.

Exquisite timing sir.

IOS said:

all polls now looking at Ed being PM.

WELL DONE CROSBY - should have stuck to the economy.

I'd really wait until the early Friday morning before being too confident of that. I'm more sympathetic towards Labour than the Tories, but I'm not discounting the possibility of a Tory surge until Friday 8th May, around 6:30am time.

Share prices in tissues and laptop cleaning equipment have in the last few hours hit historical all time lows.

compouter2 said:

SeanT said:

Oooh. Timed that well!

Hah.

Exquisite timing sir.

Except that the odds were significantly higher last night than they are now.

Tabman said:

Mortimer said:

nichomar said:

Wearing my orange tinted sun glasses and seven years of spani Sh beer and wine, possibly coupled with too much sun my take on lib dem prospects are

Scotland hold 4/5 there are reasons but no time to post them
We will lose
Burnley
Withington
Bradford East
May hold berwick but difficult
We will also lose
Cardiff Cental, BristolWest, Wells, Taunton, Somerton&Frome, the one in Norfolk, Brent Central, possibly Redcar
There will be gains, Watford, OXWAB, and possibly two others so net 52/53 gbut that is too silly so I'll settle for 40

You do realise that because of boundary changes between 05 and 10 OXWAB will almost certainly remain a Tory stronghold now, don't you? Add in registration changes and I think Con maj of 6000. Some of my favourite watering holes in that constituency; it couldn't be more Tory in a university town.

What were the changes?

Any recommendations on watering holes?

Have to agree on OxWAb staying blue, although last time the Tory Nicola Blackwood ousted Evan Harris by just 176 votes, so 6,000 majority is pretty fanciful. The LibDems have a good team and candidate on the ground here in Layla Moran. It's been a bit strange here in Abingdon, because aside from both Clegg and Cameron arriving at the start of the campaign, and a so-called morale-boosting visit by Boris Johnson at the weekend, it's all been a bit quiet.

The boundary changes that happened before 2010 took Carfax (including approx 8,000 students) off into 'Oxford East' and brought in Yarnton (formerly DC's Witney constituency) and Appleton (formerly part of Ed Vaizey's patch).

Despite what you might think, Harris was quite a popular local MP, and the 2010 campaign was quite bruising (a shady US right-wing Christian outfit sponsored anti LibDem material and an activist actually stood against him, protesting about him as 'Dr Death' for his stand on abortion and euthanasia). So I think it will be close again, but probably around 500-600 votes.

That's just my feel on the ground here. Oh, and try the real-ale troika of Crown and Thistle, Hags Head on the Thames and 'Kings Head and Bell' here in Abingdon for decent beer ;-)

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

For anyone suffering from an excess of election hysteria, there is an excellent program on BBC 4 at the moment featuring a journey along the whole of the Kennet and Avon Canal. A thoroughly relaxing watch.

Although without the wife-swapping at Wootton Rivers (*)

(*) Don't ask.

Quite right. Happy memories of a stroll from Burbage in the 1980s when there were still plenty of water voles - there was a series of them plumping into the water as one came close to them. Haven't seen the beam engines at Crofton, the ones which raised water to the summit level, since then (but did buy the new history of the pumping station last year).

The_Apocalypse said:

acf2310 said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 33s33 seconds ago
Latest BMG poll (03 - 05 May):
CON - 34% (-1)
LAB - 34% (+2)
UKIP - 12% (-2)
LDEM - 10% (-1)
GRN - 4% (+1)

How is that an interesting poll? It's pretty much in the same vein as all the other polls we've seen.

Last week it looked like the polls were swinging towards the Conservatives, now they seem to be swinging back to parity.

If this latest swing continues then Labour will be ahead on votes in the election.

That is a big if though.

It isn't widely remembered but in 1992 the polls had been swinging towards the Conservatives for the week prior to the election - from Labour having a solid lead (which is what got Kinnock so fired up in Sheffield) to parity. That swing continued in 1992 right up until the last minute - literally so the BBC exit poll was initially going to put Labour ahead but as the data came in on the Thursday evening the Conservatives took the lead.

isam said:

Dair said:

isam said:

Dair said:

SquareRoot said:

isam said:

Amazing that we have three polls today, UKIP on 12, 13 & 16%, and people are saying 1-2 seats

How?

People that used to say 6-7% and no seats before Carswell defected, now think that vote share will double with, in effect, no seats gained

Wishful thinking

No right thinking person wants a racist party to get any seats.

Indeed, dress it up as they want, NF, BNP, EDL, UKIP, they are all parties that no-one should ever consider voting for.

Whats your predicted vote share for the EDL and NF?

It's all been swallowed up by their current UKIP brand.

Ooh nasty I am hurt!

You swine!

Pathetic, clueless creature

Not sure I would be concerned about your attempt at sarcasm. There is no doubt UKIP is the current political incarnation of NF/BNP/EDL. These racist parties evolve in that way until they get a fluffy outside and a television platform.

For some reason Nick Robinson decided UKIP should get a platform. It will probably haunt him for the rest of his days (which I should add I hope are many). But it will always be his fault to decide to promote a marginal, fringe, race-hate party like UKIP on the national television stage.

Good evening Conservative and Labourites, are you all shitting yourselves?

Luckyguy1983 said:

MarkSenior said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rcs1000 said:

MikeK said:

All parties have there stupids; this suspended kipper is an ex Tory, so go figure. A kipper was badly beaten up by 5 thugs yesterday. The fact is UKIP is growing and getting stronger and both @TSE and @rcs1000 cannot stand it, hence their bile and a smear whenever they see a chance.

@MikeK: what are you talking about?

And what bile? The only poster for whom I have bile on this site is @FalseFlag, a man whose sole mission in life is to big up Vladamir Putin.

My ambition - as I've often stated - is a looser relationship with the EU, but one which preserves freedom of labour. (This means EFTA/EEA - and which results in i., no benefits for migrants, ii. no right to remain if without a job, and iii., the ability to kick people out if they commit a crime.) I realise this is less than what UKIP stands for. And I realise there are few people standing up for freedom of people to work where they like, and to hire who they like.

I think the rise of UKIP makes my dream far less likely. Sometimes I wonder if Nigel Farage is in the pay of the EU; essentially creating a caricature of Eurosceptics.

This is naive. UKIP are not creating a caricature of eurosceptics, they are eurosceptics, therefore they are being caricatured.

There were 137 cases of paedophilia, racism, homophobia, fraud and other controversial behaviour amongst other party councillors and activists in March and April alone: http://nopenothope.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/137-liblabcon-paedos-racists-homophobes.html

you missed out the word alleged between 137 and cases .
A minor detail I know if you are intent on smearing .

Pitiable response.

See rcs1000's more detailed response to your vile attempts at smearing