RT 40% of UKIP voters voted for Cameron in 2010, given he is promising an EU referendum and Miliband is not that could be enough for some to return if not the diehards
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
You told me at Dirty Dicks you were definitely voting UKIP
Will that make you and several thousand others accessories!!
I don't follow you?
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena
Is Blay not the UKIP candidate?
Maybe i got hold of wrong end of stick?
Crossed wires BJO. That's correct, but I finally decided to vote Conservative in the last month.
The (strong) push was EICIPM and the pull was the Conservative manifesto, which is the best I think I could realistically have hoped for.
OK crap joke about Kipper voters being accessories anyway!!
It's rather interesting - everything I'm hearing both first and second hand points to a English result similar to 2010 in Con-Lab races, and then when I hear that Miliband is campaigning in a seat with a Con majority of just 54 while Con teams are moving to more and more optimistic seats it really seems like it is the case that the Con-Lab E&W difference won't change.
Yet the polls are pointing to an election that is TCTC.
Thurs night will be interesting, that is the only certainty in this election.
Lol, Kippers really are the worst people in society.
Also interesting is that Daily Mirror has re-instated its Comments section while the Daily Record (same website, interface, etc) has not. Before the suspended it (a month before the First Indyref) it was heavily pro-Independence and pro-SNP.
I wonder if some of the group think and betting is based on the judgement, the Tories look blatantly more competent and deserve to win, the British people must eventually notice this, therefore they will win.
What if they don't? The evidence suggests the people are about to make a dreadful mistake
I don't see the Conservatives as competent and deserving to win, Labour are the one who look competent to me (especially compared with the Tories) and deserve to win.
Here in Brigg & Goole local Conservative activists have decamped to Pudsey to help - they must be confident here. Labour need a 5.9% swing in Brigg & Goole.
I'm a Labour supporter and wouldn't be surprised if Andrew Percy increased his majority
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
You told me at Dirty Dicks you were definitely voting UKIP
Will that make you and several thousand others accessories!!
I don't follow you?
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena
Is Blay not the UKIP candidate?
Maybe i got hold of wrong end of stick?
Casino had already made clear perhaps more than a week ago that he had returned to the Tory fold. I don't agree with him but he has taken an intellectual journey and kept PB informed at every step of the way. It is clear it has not been easy for him and it appears it is a very reluctant vote for the Tories but given his UKIP candidates actions this evening I suspect he will consider he has had a lucky escape this time.
My hope is that he returns to UKIP in the future when it becomes clear that Cameron simply cannot and will not deliver what he wants.
Speedy We shall see on Thursday night and Friday morning, but there is definitely a fear factor there in some voters south of the border, they may accept more powers for Scotland, they do not want Sturgeon and Salmond running the whole show!
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
Are you still dithering about whether to vote for UKIP?
Certainly not. That video shows that man to be deeply unpleasant. I have a wife who originates from Eastern Europe.
People like this are an absolute disgrace. They could set back the cause of UK independence from the EU for decades.
This is why I think UKIP are the worst thing to happen to the Eurosceptic movement/Better off out.
Being in favour of that is now associated with opposition to gay marriage, dislike of foreigners/non whites/non Brits.
What UKIP is needs is the likes of Richard Tyndall/Sean Fear front and centre otherwise David Cameron is going to be associated with two unique contributions to the English, one about Twitter and one about the fruitcakes.
I'm afraid you're absolutely right. The absolutism of Farage and some of the UKIP crowd which makes it seem like EFTA/EEA would be some kind of national disgrace turns off a lot of business that would otherwise be quite keen on Out.
All parties have there stupids; this suspended kipper is an ex Tory, so go figure. A kipper was badly beaten up by 5 thugs yesterday. The fact is UKIP is growing and getting stronger and both @TSE and @rcs1000 cannot stand it, hence their bile and a smear whenever they see a chance.
You should me worried about people like me, MikeK, who seriously considered voting UKIP. And for this man in my constituency.
Surely, you can agree with me that he's a disgrace?
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
You told me at Dirty Dicks you were definitely voting UKIP
Will that make you and several thousand others accessories!!
I don't follow you?
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena
Is Blay not the UKIP candidate?
Maybe i got hold of wrong end of stick?
Crossed wires BJO. That's correct, but I finally decided to vote Conservative in the last month.
The (strong) push was EICIPM and the pull was the Conservative manifesto, which is the best I think I could realistically have hoped for.
Those faint hearted will never change anything in the UK and deserve all the dissapointment thay ask for.
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
You told me at Dirty Dicks you were definitely voting UKIP
Will that make you and several thousand others accessories!!
I don't follow you?
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena
Is Blay not the UKIP candidate?
Maybe i got hold of wrong end of stick?
Crossed wires BJO. That's correct, but I finally decided to vote Conservative in the last month.
The (strong) push was EICIPM and the pull was the Conservative manifesto, which is the best I think I could realistically have hoped for.
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
You told me at Dirty Dicks you were definitely voting UKIP
Will that make you and several thousand others accessories!!
I don't follow you?
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena
Is Blay not the UKIP candidate?
Maybe i got hold of wrong end of stick?
Crossed wires BJO. That's correct, but I finally decided to vote Conservative in the last month.
The (strong) push was EICIPM and the pull was the Conservative manifesto, which is the best I think I could realistically have hoped for.
OK crap joke about Kipper voters being accessories anyway!!
I finally get it now! Long day, brain not fully focussed.
Tories you said the polls were going to move in the last 72 hours..
Well, you already know what will happen as you are such a central clued up figure in the Labour movement. You tell us who aren't in either camp what will happen!
Please could someone kindly tell me what EICIPM means?
Many thanks!
Ed Is Crap Is Prime Minister - to recognise that Ed has traditionally had great troubles in his personal polling (somewhat improved now) but nevertheless the electoral maths and the polling indicate he will win.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
Are you still dithering about whether to vote for UKIP?
Certainly not. That video shows that man to be deeply unpleasant. I have a wife who originates from Eastern Europe.
People like this are an absolute disgrace. They could set back the cause of UK independence from the EU for decades.
This is why I think UKIP are the worst thing to happen to the Eurosceptic movement/Better off out.
Being in favour of that is now associated with opposition to gay marriage, dislike of foreigners/non whites/non Brits.
What UKIP is needs is the likes of Richard Tyndall/Sean Fear front and centre otherwise David Cameron is going to be associated with two unique contributions to the English, one about Twitter and one about the fruitcakes.
I'm afraid you're absolutely right. The absolutism of Farage and some of the UKIP crowd which makes it seem like EFTA/EEA would be some kind of national disgrace turns off a lot of business that would otherwise be quite keen on Out.
All parties have there stupids; this suspended kipper is an ex Tory, so go figure. A kipper was badly beaten up by 5 thugs yesterday. The fact is UKIP is growing and getting stronger and both @TSE and @rcs1000 cannot stand it, hence their bile and a smear whenever they see a chance.
You should me worried about people like me, MikeK, who seriously considered voting UKIP. And for this man in my constituency.
Surely, you can agree with me that he's a disgrace?
Party represented by racists and fruit cakes. No nutcase filter so desperate were they to contest everywhere and get Ed into number ten so there is no referendum and therefore a continued 'need' for them to exist
Please could someone kindly tell me what EICIPM means?
Many thanks!
Ed is crap is PM
An alternative view would be to ignore it. Crumbs, I'm not even sure whether we have common agreement as to whether "OT" means "On Topic" or "Off Topic".
Are you still dithering about whether to vote for UKIP?
Certainly not. That video shows that man to be deeply unpleasant. I have a wife who originates from Eastern Europe.
People like this are an absolute disgrace. They could set back the cause of UK independence from the EU for decades.
This is why I think UKIP are the worst thing to happen to the Eurosceptic movement/Better off out.
Being in favour of that is now associated with opposition to gay marriage, dislike of foreigners/non whites/non Brits.
What UKIP is needs is the likes of Richard Tyndall/Sean Fear front and centre otherwise David Cameron is going to be associated with two unique contributions to the English Language, one about Twitter and one about the fruitcakes.
Yes, I agree with that. Although I would say UKIP has forced Cameron to commit to an EU referendum I think he otherwise wouldn't have held.
It badly needs moderate leadership.
So long as UKIP and Farage is the official voice of Out, then Out will lose. And probably lose quite badly.
Whether we like it or not, it is immigration that matters most to the British public. If Cameron negotiates reasonable limits on immigration In will win. If the Better Off Out campaign can claim "they only way to stop open borders is to leave", then Out will win. Referenda are not about personalities, but issues.
It was Cameron's pathetic flip-flopping on immigration that finally drove me into the arms of UKIP - at the time.
"Read my lips: I will get what Britain needs."
I read that as being (as was heavily trailed and leaked by CCHQ) a cap on EU immigration of 75k a year, which I thought was an entirely reasonably reform to ask for in reforming the UK's membership of the EU for the long-term, recognising it to be both outside Schengen and the Euro.
It turned out to be whatever Auntie Merkel said "yes" to (which is some dilly-dallying on benefit entitlements) but it was spun as the same thing, and that made me give up.
RT 40% of UKIP voters voted for Cameron in 2010, given he is promising an EU referendum and Miliband is not that could be enough for some to return if not the diehards
I'm sure it will. To be honest I am surprised that the UKIP vote has held up so well to this point. I have always thought 12% and 5 seats would be a great night (though I snuck that out to 6 in the Election Game). My ideal reslt would be those 5 or 6 seats but with one of them not being Farage. I think this would be hard on the man and I believe he is deserving of a seat given he took UKIP from nothing to probably the third most popular party. But for both UKIP and the BOO side I think it would be a blessing in disguise if he was not leader by the end of the year.
Oh and meant to add that those who do return will be very disappointed with Cameron come that referendum.
Smithson Senior from this thread header: "Just got back from London where I recorded several TV interviews plus made a contribution to the BBC News Channel’s prediction round which will be shown tomorrow. Unlike all the others who are participating I was the only one with a LAB lead – albeit of only one seat."
Smithson Junior from his forecast of the GE Result posted on PB this morning: Tories ..... 311 seats Labour .... 248 seats
So there's the small matter of 64 seats between father and son. Necks very firmly on the line there and no mistake!
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
You told me at Dirty Dicks you were definitely voting UKIP
Will that make you and several thousand others accessories!!
I don't follow you?
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena
Is Blay not the UKIP candidate?
Maybe i got hold of wrong end of stick?
Crossed wires BJO. That's correct, but I finally decided to vote Conservative in the last month.
The (strong) push was EICIPM and the pull was the Conservative manifesto, which is the best I think I could realistically have hoped for.
Those faint hearted will never change anything in the UK and deserve all the dissapointment thay ask for.
I disagree. The Coalition has revolutionised our education system with free schools, more rigorous exams and a solid curriculum. Welfare has been rolled back and the Universal Credit will mean that work pays. Our universities are better funded than ever before. Cameron capped the EU budget and will deliver us a referendum. The bureaucracy has been overcome on planning reform, and great new infrastructure projects are going ahead. There is lot of change going on if you look for it.
It's rather interesting - everything I'm hearing both first and second hand points to a English result similar to 2010 in Con-Lab races, and then when I hear that Miliband is campaigning in a seat with a Con majority of just 54 while Con teams are moving to more and more optimistic seats it really seems like it is the case that the Con-Lab E&W difference won't change.
Yet the polls are pointing to an election that is TCTC.
Thurs night will be interesting, that is the only certainty in this election.
Entirely agree. Scotland SLAB near wipeout, Wales nothing much happening, see no reason why England LAB-CON aggregate change will amount to much. In 2010 LAB held 20ish seats for fear of change to Dave and George and i cannot see the risk premium of change to Milliband being any smaller.
Please could someone kindly tell me what EICIPM means?
Many thanks!
No idea!!
OK I do
Think it was first used in June last year when PB Tories were insistent in every thread that Ed is Crap
A LAB poster (ok it was me) decided it would be mildly amusing to post after every poll showing Ed ahead that on that poll Ed is Crap is PM (EICIPM)
Bet you wished you hadn't asked.
Next time you have something you feel might be 'mildly amusing' can you give us several weeks warning, so we can all stand well back.. say around Falklands distance. It's a fearful spectre that you have conjoured!
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
Are you still dithering about whether to vote for UKIP?
Certainly not. That video shows that man to be deeply unpleasant. I have a wife who originates from Eastern Europe.
People like this are an absolute disgrace. They could set back the cause of UK independence from the EU for decades.
This is why I think UKIP are the worst thing to happen to the Eurosceptic movement/Better off out.
Being in favour of that is now associated with opposition to gay marriage, dislike of foreigners/non whites/non Brits.
What UKIP is needs is the likes of Richard Tyndall/Sean Fear front and centre otherwise David Cameron is going to be associated with two unique contributions to the English, one about Twitter and one about the fruitcakes.
I'm afraid you're absolutely right. The absolutism of Farage and some of the UKIP crowd which makes it seem like EFTA/EEA would be some kind of national disgrace turns off a lot of business that would otherwise be quite keen on Out.
All parties have there stupids; this suspended kipper is an ex Tory, so go figure. A kipper was badly beaten up by 5 thugs yesterday. The fact is UKIP is growing and getting stronger and both @TSE and @rcs1000 cannot stand it, hence their bile and a smear whenever they see a chance.
You should me worried about people like me, MikeK, who seriously considered voting UKIP. And for this man in my constituency.
Surely, you can agree with me that he's a disgrace?I was always going to vote for Ranil anyway, but this has made me question my decision to vote UKIP in the District Council election. Surely the local party must have known what he was like?
David Tennant SLAB advert is risible. All about the past, past, past.
Interestingly BBC Scotland are not scheduling it separately. It is officially part of the Reporting Scotland news bulletin. BBC Scotland also trying to Unionise the language referring to Gordonstoun as a "public" school when it's a private school.
BBC Scotland also trying to Unionise the language referring to Gordonstoun as a "public" school when it's a private school
ROFL it really is 24/7 paranoid bollocks with you Dair. Plain barking.
Maybe you don't understand the BBC. It has language guidelines which have to be adhered to by reporters. If BBC Scotland has started using the term "public" school for private schools then the term is being approved and authorised by the BBC Trust. The BBC has historically used the correct terms "private" or "independent", usually the latter.
This is a change in BBC policy. Any specifically provocative language change by the BBC is a policy decision and their journalists are well aware of it.
It is possible BBC Scotland are ignoring the BBC Trust rules. They continue to do so when referring to Rangers, continually questioning their status as a continuing club founded in 1872. The Trust has actually ruled on this but BBC Scotland continue to break the Trust rules. It is possible this is a BBC Scotland decision against Trust guidelines.
Nuttier than ever, is anything not a plot ?
He genuinely believes it all, just as he genuinely believed that yesterday SLab had put the now suspended SNP members up to the abuse of Izzard and Murphy, just as he genuinely believes that Scotland has no fiscal black hole, just as he genuinely believes that the VAT we pay here in England on Scottish products will go to Scotland on independence. Black is white; night is day; nothing the SNP says or does can ever be wrong; any evidence to the contrary is a conspiracy or fraud. It is what nationalist fundamentalism looks like. It is not rational. It is faith. And it cannot be argued with. It just has to be accepted for what it is.
Here in Brigg & Goole local Conservative activists have decamped to Pudsey to help - they must be confident here. Labour need a 5.9% swing in Brigg & Goole.
I'm a Labour supporter and wouldn't be surprised if Andrew Percy increased his majority
Wow - it's that bad for Labour? Not tying into the national poll picture which looks much rosier...
Well both parties canvassing returns seem to be showing Tories most seats most votes. At least if what we are hearing about where the activists are being thrown at. At a guess both parties are reckoning Tories 4% ahead. Polls say even stevens.
All parties have there stupids; this suspended kipper is an ex Tory, so go figure. A kipper was badly beaten up by 5 thugs yesterday. The fact is UKIP is growing and getting stronger and both @TSE and @rcs1000 cannot stand it, hence their bile and a smear whenever they see a chance.
And what bile? The only poster for whom I have bile on this site is @FalseFlag, a man whose sole mission in life is to big up Vladamir Putin.
My ambition - as I've often stated - is a looser relationship with the EU, but one which preserves freedom of labour. (This means EFTA/EEA - and which results in i., no benefits for migrants, ii. no right to remain if without a job, and iii., the ability to kick people out if they commit a crime.) I realise this is less than what UKIP stands for. And I realise there are few people standing up for freedom of people to work where they like, and to hire who they like.
I think the rise of UKIP makes my dream far less likely. Sometimes I wonder if Nigel Farage is in the pay of the EU; essentially creating a caricature of Eurosceptics.
Tories you said the polls were going to move in the last 72 hours..
After five years governing with straitened finances, presiding over austerity, facing a Labour party as the lone opposition, and spending over three years behind in the polls, I think most sensible Tories will be happy to be polling on average 1% leads with 24 hours to go.
Thank you to Chameleon and kle4! As another commenter mentioned, it is very difficult to understand all the little acronyms and catchphrases on this forum sometimes. A glossary on one of the side bars would be very helpful.
Please could someone kindly tell me what EICIPM means?
Many thanks!
No idea!!
OK I do
Think it was first used in June last year when PB Tories were insistent in every thread that Ed is Crap
A LAB poster (ok it was me) decided it would be mildly amusing to post after every poll showing Ed ahead that on that poll Ed is Crap is PM (EICIPM)
Bet you wished you hadn't asked.
Next time you have something you feel might be 'mildly amusing' can you give us several weeks warning, so we can all stand well back.. say around Falklands distance. It's a fearful spectre that you have conjoured!
I know but I bet Dr Frankenstein thought it was a good idea at first.
Took a lot of stick when I first suggested that 2015 might be a good election to lose.
2 days out, My views haven't really changed and this is why.
1) Numbers - Unless the polls are drastically wrong the numbers are a complete dogs breakfast. Whoever governs is going to allsorts of problems from being propped up by parties with self interest, questions over legitimacy, problems with rebels within the party, etc,etc.
2) The Economy/Deficit - Whether you believe that the black swan is coming or not (China, Gr-exit, Bond Market Crash or whatever), make no mistake, the GDP figures were not a blip - they are a sign of things to come and if so, all of the parties fancy pledges on spending are going straight to the shredder. Whether Labour or Tory led, the next government is going to need to raise taxes and cut spending quite a bit beyond what most people are even willing to think about, or take the Greek route.
3) The NHS - It's virtually unmanageable and unaffordable. I have no doubt that whichever party gets control of this, will be regretting it during their time in government and they will come out with significantly lower ratings on the NHS than they enter with. This will almost certainly be the last election fought on how much money can be chucked at it. Radical reform will be the platform future elections are fought on.
4) Europe / The rise of UKIP - Suppose Labour win - no referendum - continued Eurozone problems - Suddenly all of UKIPs decent second places in the Midlands and the north will become winnable and where they are not second, they soon will be. Ok, a Tory win - referendum delivered (by no means certain without a majority), narrow YES to stay in on the back of all mainstream parties campaigning for YES. Sizeable NO vote start to drift to UKIP, perhaps not as dramatically as the SNP situation, but that experience is there for all to see, so nothing can be ruled out.
That is why if I was CAM and I got sub 310, I would say no thank you. If I was Ed and was on fewer seats, I would say the same thing.
I can never quite understand UKIP. They seem to now have a large number of normal, down-to-Earth spokesmen, and I've met a lot of very thoughtful UKIP supporters over the years. Yet they still put up some absolute nutcases as candidates. It would do them a world of good if they just asked every candidate a dozen or so questions about their views on race, homosexuality, and the new world order. For their next leader they need someone who is less of a showman and more willing to do the hard graft of sorting out the party.
Yes, I think UKIP have a real problem with candidate selection. There really is no excuse for getting it this wrong - on, let's face it, far more than one occasion.
I might easily have ordered a postal vote, already voted for this guy, returned it, and now been able to do absolutely nothing about it.
That makes me feel slightly sick.
That's one reason why it's really important that we get a strong recall law, so that the electorate can trigger a recall election in the circumstance that someone is elected but rapidly brings their position into disrepute. Not sure whether it made it into any manifestos this time.
It was a major failing of the Coalition that they failed to bring such a law in after promising to do so.
David Tennant SLAB advert is risible. All about the past, past, past.
Interestingly BBC Scotland are not scheduling it separately. It is officially part of the Reporting Scotland news bulletin. BBC Scotland also trying to Unionise the language referring to Gordonstoun as a "public" school when it's a private school.
BBC Scotland also trying to Unionise the language referring to Gordonstoun as a "public" school when it's a private school
ROFL it really is 24/7 paranoid bollocks with you Dair. Plain barking.
Maybe you don't understand the BBC. It has language guidelines which have to be adhered to by reporters. If BBC Scotland has started using the term "public" school for private schools then the term is being approved and authorised by the BBC Trust. The BBC has historically used the correct terms "private" or "independent", usually the latter.
This is a change in BBC policy. Any specifically provocative language change by the BBC is a policy decision and their journalists are well aware of it.
It is possible BBC Scotland are ignoring the BBC Trust rules. They continue to do so when referring to Rangers, continually questioning their status as a continuing club founded in 1872. The Trust has actually ruled on this but BBC Scotland continue to break the Trust rules. It is possible this is a BBC Scotland decision against Trust guidelines.
Nuttier than ever, is anything not a plot ?
He genuinely believes it all, just as he genuinely believed that yesterday SLab had put the now suspended SNP members up to the abuse of Izzard and Murphy, just as he genuinely believes that Scotland has no fiscal black hole, just as he genuinely believes that the VAT we pay here in England on Scottish products will go to Scotland on independence. Black is white; night is day; nothing the SNP says or does can ever be wrong; any evidence to the contrary is a conspiracy or fraud. It is what nationalist fundamentalism looks like. It is not rational. It is faith. And it cannot be argued with. It just has to be accepted for what it is.
I love our Nats it's like an out of body experience.
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
You told me at Dirty Dicks you were definitely voting UKIP
Will that make you and several thousand others accessories!!
I don't follow you?
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena
Is Blay not the UKIP candidate?
Maybe i got hold of wrong end of stick?
Crossed wires BJO. That's correct, but I finally decided to vote Conservative in the last month.
The (strong) push was EICIPM and the pull was the Conservative manifesto, which is the best I think I could realistically have hoped for.
Those faint hearted will never change anything in the UK and deserve all the dissapointment thay ask for.
I fully expect to be disappointed by a re-elected Cameron government. But I'm not voting for someone who would call my wife a f**king immigrant and demand she returns to her country.
I remain a supporter of EU withdrawal, and controlled limited immigration, both of which I think are sensible and moderate causes and I will work to best advance the causes of both.
He genuinely believes it all, just as he genuinely believed that yesterday SLab had put the now suspended SNP members up to the abuse of Izzard and Murphy, just as he genuinely believes that Scotland has no fiscal black hole, just as he genuinely believes that the VAT we pay here in England on Scottish products will go to Scotland on independence. Black is white; night is day; nothing the SNP says or does can ever be wrong; any evidence to the contrary is a conspiracy or fraud. It is what nationalist fundamentalism looks like. It is not rational. It is faith. And it cannot be argued with. It just has to be accepted for what it is.
SLAB did invite them to the event, that's not in dispute. McTernan did it in Australia and was caught because the Aussie media is relatively independent. In Scotland the compliant MSM don't even question McTernan's intention or even asked why East Renfrewshire CLP told Clerkin et al where to go.
RT I think UKIP will get 10% and 4 seats including Farage winning Thanet South
Given Cameron will probably need DUP and UKIP support for a majority he will have to stick to a referendum though I agree he would likely end up on the In side
I can never quite understand UKIP. They seem to now have a large number of normal, down-to-Earth spokesmen, and I've met a lot of very thoughtful UKIP supporters over the years. Yet they still put up some absolute nutcases as candidates. It would do them a world of good if they just asked every candidate a dozen or so questions about their views on race, homosexuality, and the new world order. For their next leader they need someone who is less of a showman and more willing to do the hard graft of sorting out the party.
Yes, I think UKIP have a real problem with candidate selection. There really is no excuse for getting it this wrong - on, let's face it, far more than one occasion.
I might easily have ordered a postal vote, already voted for this guy, returned it, and now been able to do absolutely nothing about it.
That makes me feel slightly sick.
That's one reason why it's really important that we get a strong recall law, so that the electorate can trigger a recall election in the circumstance that someone is elected but rapidly brings their position into disrepute. Not sure whether it made it into any manifestos this time.
It was a major failing of the Coalition that they failed to bring such a law in after promising to do so.
Fully agree. I do now think (in hindsight) this government blew their chance at real political reform.
There's been some tinkering round the edges. Otherwise, status quo.
Please could someone kindly tell me what EICIPM means?
Many thanks!
No idea!!
OK I do
Think it was first used in June last year when PB Tories were insistent in every thread that Ed is Crap
A LAB poster (ok it was me) decided it would be mildly amusing to post after every poll showing Ed ahead that on that poll Ed is Crap is PM (EICIPM)
Bet you wished you hadn't asked.
Next time you have something you feel might be 'mildly amusing' can you give us several weeks warning, so we can all stand well back.. say around Falklands distance. It's a fearful spectre that you have conjoured!
I know but I bet Dr Frankenstein thought it was a good idea at first.
I promise never to use it again after 8/5/15
Don't be daft. It may be your lasting contribution to the English language.
RT I think UKIP will get 10% and 4 seats including Farage winning Thanet South
Given Cameron will probably need DUP and UKIP support for a majority he will have to stick to a referendum though I agree he would likely end up on the In side
There is no 'likely' about it. He has made it absolutely clear he would never countenance the UK withdrawing from the EU.
Anyway, is there a market for Con seats in Scotland?
I think it's worth a punt going in at 3 and 5 seats due to the possible existence of three things: 1. The 'spiral of silence' unionist vote. 2. The Tartan Tories being put off by the increased socialist positioning of the SNP since 2011. 3. The unionist vote seeing the Tories as the main unionist party.
The often small Labour vote in lots of Northern seats also mean the the SNP have less to squeeze.
If (and that's a big if) all three things are there then the pandas may have to get breeding
David Tennant SLAB advert is risible. All about the past, past, past.
Interestingly BBC Scotland are not scheduling it separately. It is officially part of the Reporting Scotland news bulletin. BBC Scotland also trying to Unionise the language referring to Gordonstoun as a "public" school when it's a private school.
BBC Scotland also trying to Unionise the language referring to Gordonstoun as a "public" school when it's a private school
ROFL it really is 24/7 paranoid bollocks with you Dair. Plain barking.
Maybe you don't understand the BBC. It has language guidelines which have to be adhered to by reporters. If BBC Scotland has started using the term "public" school for private schools then the term is being approved and authorised by the BBC Trust. The BBC has historically used the correct terms "private" or "independent", usually the latter.
This is a change in BBC policy. Any specifically provocative language change by the BBC is a policy decision and their journalists are well aware of it.
It is possible BBC Scotland are ignoring the BBC Trust rules. They continue to do so when referring to Rangers, continually questioning their status as a continuing club founded in 1872. The Trust has actually ruled on this but BBC Scotland continue to break the Trust rules. It is possible this is a BBC Scotland decision against Trust guidelines.
Nuttier than ever, is anything not a plot ?
He genuinely believes it all, just as he genuinely believed that yesterday SLab had put the now suspended SNP members up to the abuse of Izzard and Murphy, just as he genuinely believes that Scotland has no fiscal black hole, just as he genuinely believes that the VAT we pay here in England on Scottish products will go to Scotland on independence. Black is white; night is day; nothing the SNP says or does can ever be wrong; any evidence to the contrary is a conspiracy or fraud. It is what nationalist fundamentalism looks like. It is not rational. It is faith. And it cannot be argued with. It just has to be accepted for what it is.
I love our Nats it's like an out of body experience.
I found his insistence that anyone who stopped off for a pint on the way home from work was a raving alcoholic to be completely incomprehensible.
Took a lot of stick when I first suggested that 2015 might be a good election to lose.
2 days out, My views haven't really changed and this is why.
1) Numbers - Unless the polls are drastically wrong the numbers are a complete dogs breakfast. Whoever governs is going to allsorts of problems from being propped up by parties with self interest, questions over legitimacy, problems with rebels within the party, etc,etc.
2) The Economy/Deficit - Whether you believe that the black swan is coming or not (China, Gr-exit, Bond Market Crash or whatever), make no mistake, the GDP figures were not a blip - they are a sign of things to come and if so, all of the parties fancy pledges on spending are going straight to the shredder. Whether Labour or Tory led, the next government is going to need to raise taxes and cut spending quite a bit beyond what most people are even willing to think about, or take the Greek route.
3) The NHS - It's virtually unmanageable and unaffordable. I have no doubt that whichever party gets control of this, will be regretting it during their time in government and they will come out with significantly lower ratings on the NHS than they enter with. This will almost certainly be the last election fought on how much money can be chucked at it. Radical reform will be the platform future elections are fought on.
4) Europe / The rise of UKIP - Suppose Labour win - no referendum - continued Eurozone problems - Suddenly all of UKIPs decent second places in the Midlands and the north will become winnable and where they are not second, they soon will be. Ok, a Tory win - referendum delivered (by no means certain without a majority), narrow YES to stay in on the back of all mainstream parties campaigning for YES. Sizeable NO vote start to drift to UKIP, perhaps not as dramatically as the SNP situation, but that experience is there for all to see, so nothing can be ruled out.
That is why if I was CAM and I got sub 310, I would say no thank you. If I was Ed and was on fewer seats, I would say the same thing.
Note to thread editor - the Good Lord has tweeted a final 3000 person national voting poll will be on Con Home on Thursday AM, this was NOT the final Ashcroft!
Took a lot of stick when I first suggested that 2015 might be a good election to lose.
2 days out, My views haven't really changed and this is why.
1) Numbers - Unless the polls are drastically wrong the numbers are a complete dogs breakfast. Whoever governs is going to allsorts of problems from being propped up by parties with self interest, questions over legitimacy, problems with rebels within the party, etc,etc.
2) The Economy/Deficit - Whether you believe that the black swan is coming or not (China, Gr-exit, Bond Market Crash or whatever), make no mistake, the GDP figures were not a blip - they are a sign of things to come and if so, all of the parties fancy pledges on spending are going straight to the shredder. Whether Labour or Tory led, the next government is going to need to raise taxes and cut spending quite a bit beyond what most people are even willing to think about, or take the Greek route.
3) The NHS - It's virtually unmanageable and unaffordable. I have no doubt that whichever party gets control of this, will be regretting it during their time in government and they will come out with significantly lower ratings on the NHS than they enter with. This will almost certainly be the last election fought on how much money can be chucked at it. Radical reform will be the platform future elections are fought on.
4) Europe / The rise of UKIP - Suppose Labour win - no referendum - continued Eurozone problems - Suddenly all of UKIPs decent second places in the Midlands and the north will become winnable and where they are not second, they soon will be. Ok, a Tory win - referendum delivered (by no means certain without a majority), narrow YES to stay in on the back of all mainstream parties campaigning for YES. Sizeable NO vote start to drift to UKIP, perhaps not as dramatically as the SNP situation, but that experience is there for all to see, so nothing can be ruled out.
That is why if I was CAM and I got sub 310, I would say no thank you. If I was Ed and was on fewer seats, I would say the same thing.
Off topic do you know what a floater is ?
In the context of my user-name, it means someone who is yet to make their mind up on which way to vote.
He genuinely believes it all, just as he genuinely believed that yesterday SLab had put the now suspended SNP members up to the abuse of Izzard and Murphy, just as he genuinely believes that Scotland has no fiscal black hole, just as he genuinely believes that the VAT we pay here in England on Scottish products will go to Scotland on independence. Black is white; night is day; nothing the SNP says or does can ever be wrong; any evidence to the contrary is a conspiracy or fraud. It is what nationalist fundamentalism looks like. It is not rational. It is faith. And it cannot be argued with. It just has to be accepted for what it is.
SLAB did invite them to the event, that's not in dispute. McTernan did it in Australia and was caught because the Aussie media is relatively independent. In Scotland the compliant MSM don't even question McTernan's intention or even asked why East Renfrewshire CLP told Clerkin et al where to go.
I know that you genuinely believe that to be the case, but it is in dispute because it is not true.
Please could someone kindly tell me what EICIPM means?
Many thanks!
No idea!!
OK I do
Think it was first used in June last year when PB Tories were insistent in every thread that Ed is Crap
A LAB poster (ok it was me) decided it would be mildly amusing to post after every poll showing Ed ahead that on that poll Ed is Crap is PM (EICIPM)
Bet you wished you hadn't asked.
Next time you have something you feel might be 'mildly amusing' can you give us several weeks warning, so we can all stand well back.. say around Falklands distance. It's a fearful spectre that you have conjoured!
I know but I bet Dr Frankenstein thought it was a good idea at first.
I promise never to use it again after 8/5/15
I'll forgive you - but I'm only doing so because the world is a richer place as I listen to the Complete Studio Recordings of Roxy Music.
I'm not that worried really about EdM as PM - he'll most likely be the 2nd worst ever, but we survived Gordo. It's EdB that truly disturbs me.
Took a lot of stick when I first suggested that 2015 might be a good election to lose.
... That is why if I was CAM and I got sub 310, I would say no thank you. If I was Ed and was on fewer seats, I would say the same thing.
I wouldn't give someone stick for suggesting 2015 might be a good one to lose. There are many reasons as you indicate that mean whoever is in government will not have a pleasant time of it. Indeed, some have suggested 2010 was another one which was good to lose.
Nevertheless, I do think some Tories at least might run the risk of attempting to console themselves that it is better to lose this one, which might cushion them from addressing the reasons for why they will lose this one, because it didn't really matter and they'll win by a mile next time as a result (so the theory might go).
David Tennant SLAB advert is risible. All about the past, past, past.
Interestingly BBC Scotland are not scheduling it separately. It is officially part of the Reporting Scotland news bulletin. BBC Scotland also trying to Unionise the language referring to Gordonstoun as a "public" school when it's a private school.
BBC Scotland also trying to Unionise the language referring to Gordonstoun as a "public" school when it's a private school
ROFL it really is 24/7 paranoid bollocks with you Dair. Plain barking.
Maybe you don't understand the BBC. It has language guidelines which have to be adhered to by reporters. If BBC Scotland has started using the term "public" school for private schools then the term is being approved and authorised by the BBC Trust. The BBC has historically used the correct terms "private" or "independent", usually the latter.
This is a change in BBC policy. Any specifically provocative language change by the BBC is a policy decision and their journalists are well aware of it.
It is possible BBC Scotland are ignoring the BBC Trust rules. They continue to do so when referring to Rangers, continually questioning their status as a continuing club founded in 1872. The Trust has actually ruled on this but BBC Scotland continue to break the Trust rules. It is possible this is a BBC Scotland decision against Trust guidelines.
Nuttier than ever, is anything not a plot ?
He genuinely believes it all, just as he genuinely believed that yesterday SLab had put the now suspended SNP members up to the abuse of Izzard and Murphy, just as he genuinely believes that Scotland has no fiscal black hole, just as he genuinely believes that the VAT we pay here in England on Scottish products will go to Scotland on independence. Black is white; night is day; nothing the SNP says or does can ever be wrong; any evidence to the contrary is a conspiracy or fraud. It is what nationalist fundamentalism looks like. It is not rational. It is faith. And it cannot be argued with. It just has to be accepted for what it is.
I love our Nats it's like an out of body experience.
They have indeed drunk deep of the kool aide. It is in a way genuinely scary the blind obedience and faith in the one true leader.
I do not think anything is settled yet. Should David Cameron get re-elected, the European Union will need to accept he's not going away and will take him a lot more seriously. If the Conservatives are serious about winning a referendum, they will simply have to negotiate some sort of limit on immigration. Maybe that's not a cap. Maybe it's some sort of longer transitional controls put back on Eastern Europe. Maybe something else I have not considered. But it has to be something that actually limits immigration, not just limits what they can get once they are here. The "open borders" line is a killer on the doorstep, and as long as the Better Off Out side can honestly use the term we will lose the referendum. I'm certain of it.
Anyway, is there a market for Con seats in Scotland?
I think it's worth a punt going in at 3 and 5 seats due to the possible existence of three things: 1. The 'spiral of silence' unionist vote. 2. The Tartan Tories being put off by the increased socialist positioning of the SNP since 2011. 3. The unionist vote seeing the Tories as the main unionist party.
The often small Labour vote in lots of Northern seats also mean the the SNP have less to squeeze.
If all three things are there then the pandas may have to get breeding
3 is very optimistic. Think the blues will be happy if they get 1
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
Are you still dithering about whether to vote for UKIP?
Certainly not. That video shows that man to be deeply unpleasant. I have a wife who originates from Eastern Europe.
People like this are an absolute disgrace. They could set back the cause of UK independence from the EU for decades.
This is why I think UKIP are the worst thing to happen to the Eurosceptic movement/Better off out.
Being in favour of that is now associated with opposition to gay marriage, dislike of foreigners/non whites/non Brits.
What UKIP is needs is the likes of Richard Tyndall/Sean Fear front and centre otherwise David Cameron is going to be associated with two unique contributions to the English, one about Twitter and one about the fruitcakes.
I'm afraid you're absolutely right. The absolutism of Farage and some of the UKIP crowd which makes it seem like EFTA/EEA would be some kind of national disgrace turns off a lot of business that would otherwise be quite keen on Out.
All parties have there stupids; this suspended kipper is an ex Tory, so go figure. A kipper was badly beaten up by 5 thugs yesterday. The fact is UKIP is growing and getting stronger and both @TSE and @rcs1000 cannot stand it, hence their bile and a smear whenever they see a chance.
You should me worried about people like me, MikeK, who seriously considered voting UKIP. And for this man in my constituency.
Surely, you can agree with me that he's a disgrace?
I was always going to vote for Ranil anyway, but this has made me question my decision to vote UKIP in the District Council election. Surely the local party must have known what he was like?
I think I might have actually voted for him in the 2014 local elections in the Odiham ward.
As a mere foot soldier, just back in after another day on the doorsteps in Pembs, there is no doubt the Labour ground war has been far more organised and focussed than the Tory one. Whether it has been more effective we will find out on Friday. Incidentally I can concur with what just about everyone is saying, there are a lot of people, far more than usual, still genuinely undecided out there. I suspect they will revert to type on Thursday.
I'm reading that some posters believe that private polling by Conservatives and Labour may be showing a greater Conservative lead than the polls of which we have visibility.
Can anyone tell me why this might be the case? Is it because it is more detailed and shows up local variations from the mean that might change things? Or because they are asking more searching questions?
Otherwise I am at a loss to understand why some might believe the situation is more favourable to the Conservatives than the published polling figures might suggest.
The anecdotal evidence and the mood music continues to be much better for the Tories than the polls. In my opinion the 2010 Tory vote is pretty rock solid where it matters with the drift to UKIP only being significant where Labour are not competitive.
In some seats this will not be enough as the red Liberals get Labour over the top. I expect Broxtowe to be one of these but the number is not large. Labour are likely to lose at least 35 seats in Scotland. Will they make that number of gains to get back to their current level? The polls say yes but the anecdotes say not.
It is possible that this is all some Romneyian delusion, that the polls are right and that Labour are going to walk this. It just does not feel like that.
Today, driving home in monsoon conditions from Glasgow I was listening to R5 in Warwickshire. Almost everyone they spoke to was voting tory or UKIP. They eventually found a Labour voter but he was only 95%. The 5% was Miliband, he was just not sure about him.
This is Labour's number 1 target and Ed was there today. Why is he in a target lower than 50? Are their polling figures that bad?
He genuinely believes it all, just as he genuinely believed that yesterday SLab had put the now suspended SNP members up to the abuse of Izzard and Murphy, just as he genuinely believes that Scotland has no fiscal black hole, just as he genuinely believes that the VAT we pay here in England on Scottish products will go to Scotland on independence. Black is white; night is day; nothing the SNP says or does can ever be wrong; any evidence to the contrary is a conspiracy or fraud. It is what nationalist fundamentalism looks like. It is not rational. It is faith. And it cannot be argued with. It just has to be accepted for what it is.
SLAB did invite them to the event, that's not in dispute. McTernan did it in Australia and was caught because the Aussie media is relatively independent. In Scotland the compliant MSM don't even question McTernan's intention or even asked why East Renfrewshire CLP told Clerkin et al where to go.
I know that you genuinely believe that to be the case, but it is in dispute because it is not true.
It was being reported by journos on non-SNP-friendly newspapers! From interiews wit hthe perpetrators! As I pointed out several days ago.
Logically all the parties ought to fire their hired-in election strategists because none of them has achieved anything. The polls are exactly where they were 6 weeks ago.
The trouble with tactical voting is that it completely masks what people actually want. I recall in 1983 hearing from gloomy defeated lefties at university that Fatcha had no mandate to govern because 56% of the electorate had "voted against her". I pointed out that if you're going to interpret non-support in that way then 72% had "voted against" Labour so she still had every right to govern.
When you've got people voting UKIP to prevent a referendum by getting Labour in, and others voting SNP so Labour will win and screw the English, and voting Conservative so UKIP will lose, the actual vote percentages become literally almost completely meaningless. We know 28% of Labouroids will vote for a donkey in a red rosette - which is pretty much what Miliband is - but WTF anyone else's poll share means, I can't really fathom.
That's the best argument for STV I've heard in a while
I do not think anything is settled yet. Should David Cameron get re-elected, the European Union will need to accept he's not going away and will take him a lot more seriously. If the Conservatives are serious about winning a referendum, they will simply have to negotiate some sort of limit on immigration. Maybe that's not a cap. Maybe it's some sort of longer transitional controls put back on Eastern Europe. Maybe something else I have not considered. But it has to be something that actually limits immigration, not just limits what they can get once they are here. The "open borders" line is a killer on the doorstep, and as long as the Better Off Out side can honestly use the term we will lose the referendum. I'm certain of it.
Anyway, is there a market for Con seats in Scotland?
I think it's worth a punt going in at 3 and 5 seats due to the possible existence of three things: 1. The 'spiral of silence' unionist vote. 2. The Tartan Tories being put off by the increased socialist positioning of the SNP since 2011. 3. The unionist vote seeing the Tories as the main unionist party.
The often small Labour vote in lots of Northern seats also mean the the SNP have less to squeeze.
If all three things are there then the pandas may have to get breeding
3 is very optimistic. Think the blues will be happy if they get 1
It is, but at this stage I'm looking for a few outsiders that may just come to fruition.
He genuinely believes it all, just as he genuinely believed that yesterday SLab had put the now suspended SNP members up to the abuse of Izzard and Murphy, just as he genuinely believes that Scotland has no fiscal black hole, just as he genuinely believes that the VAT we pay here in England on Scottish products will go to Scotland on independence. Black is white; night is day; nothing the SNP says or does can ever be wrong; any evidence to the contrary is a conspiracy or fraud. It is what nationalist fundamentalism looks like. It is not rational. It is faith. And it cannot be argued with. It just has to be accepted for what it is.
SLAB did invite them to the event, that's not in dispute. McTernan did it in Australia and was caught because the Aussie media is relatively independent. In Scotland the compliant MSM don't even question McTernan's intention or even asked why East Renfrewshire CLP told Clerkin et al where to go.
I know that you genuinely believe that to be the case, but it is in dispute because it is not true.
Apart from Clerkin's statement to the press that he was notified about the event by East Renfrewshire CLP. If you have evidence to the contrary, feel free to post it.
Maybe you think Clerkin is smart enough to create a conspiracy, I don't. Maybe you should order your tinfoil helmet.
Since I've started stalking Labour MPs on twitter to check where they are campaigning....the only visits Brigg & Goole CLP has been a brief visit by Scunthorpe MP during the weekend and a doorstep session with one of the Yorkshire MEPs (but MEPs tend to go everywhere....possibly because their selectorate also lives in not target seats...).
With current polls and uniform swing, Labour would lose by 5%...and IIRC Labour didn't have good results in local elections during the 2010-15 period (North Lincolnshire went Lab to Con in 2011)....so I would expect a worse than average Labour performance there regardless what the average will be
Anyway, is there a market for Con seats in Scotland?
I think it's worth a punt going in at 3 and 5 seats due to the possible existence of three things: 1. The 'spiral of silence' unionist vote. 2. The Tartan Tories being put off by the increased socialist positioning of the SNP since 2011. 3. The unionist vote seeing the Tories as the main unionist party.
The often small Labour vote in lots of Northern seats also mean the the SNP have less to squeeze.
If all three things are there then the pandas may have to get breeding
3 is very optimistic. Think the blues will be happy if they get 1
Where could they win? Any of the three border seats would be possible - I have them for one or two of these. The only other candidates are where they were second and the SNP a long way back relying on holding vote up and SNP charge not being enough despite a Lib/Lab meltdown - I make that three of the Edinburgh seats (w s and SW) East Lothian and West Ab and Kincardine They won't get within 10 percent of winning any of those apart from, perhaps, WAK IMO
'The buzz going around those in the supposed 'know', is that the GE will see a substantially increase in voting numbers. If true, and not some random remark, then my hopes of a remarkable change may be realised.'
I'm reading that some posters believe that private polling by Conservatives and Labour may be showing a greater Conservative lead than the polls of which we have visibility.
Can anyone tell me why this might be the case? Is it because it is more detailed and shows up local variations from the mean that might change things? Or because they are asking more searching questions?
Otherwise I am at a loss to understand why some might believe the situation is more favourable to the Conservatives than the published polling figures might suggest.
Not read anyone say its private polling. Seems to be more like canvass returns.
Took a lot of stick when I first suggested that 2015 might be a good election to lose.
... That is why if I was CAM and I got sub 310, I would say no thank you. If I was Ed and was on fewer seats, I would say the same thing.
I wouldn't give someone stick for suggesting 2015 might be a good one to lose. There are many reasons as you indicate that mean whoever is in government will not have a pleasant time of it. Indeed, some have suggested 2010 was another one which was good to lose.
Nevertheless, I do think some Tories at least might run the risk of attempting to console themselves that it is better to lose this one, which might cushion them from addressing the reasons for why they will lose this one, because it didn't really matter and they'll win by a mile next time as a result (so the theory might go).
Some sort of glossary of terms for this site may help. Bit of an acronym maze at first.
I recommend plain English as a goal.
That just goes against everything I stand for.
Can't disagree with any of that.
Bit of a weird election - unprecedented (in my lifetime) vote switches with the rise of UKIP and SNP, the demise of the Lib Dems, yet the two main parties could come out almost the same (probably some Labour improvement on 2010).
Labour should have won easily on the back of austerity, however they were handicapped by the mud sticking to them for cause of it and perhaps a leader that lacks a little charisma.
I'm reading that some posters believe that private polling by Conservatives and Labour may be showing a greater Conservative lead than the polls of which we have visibility.
Can anyone tell me why this might be the case? Is it because it is more detailed and shows up local variations from the mean that might change things? Or because they are asking more searching questions?
Otherwise I am at a loss to understand why some might believe the situation is more favourable to the Conservatives than the published polling figures might suggest.
Not read anyone say its private polling. Seems to be more like canvass returns.
But why should this be so out of step with the opinion polls?
I'm reading that some posters believe that private polling by Conservatives and Labour may be showing a greater Conservative lead than the polls of which we have visibility.
Can anyone tell me why this might be the case? Is it because it is more detailed and shows up local variations from the mean that might change things? Or because they are asking more searching questions?
Otherwise I am at a loss to understand why some might believe the situation is more favourable to the Conservatives than the published polling figures might suggest.
I don't think there's much new, personally. It looks to me like Labour have ditched target seats 60+ from the Tories, and Scotland.
They are focussing on their 10th-50th targets, with a couple or so in the top 10 targets, which tells me they're very confident about 15 gains or so, but don't think they can top 50.
That explains their panic, because it gives their maximum seat tally (if everything goes right) as no more than 285, and it'll most probably be less.
Here in Brigg & Goole local Conservative activists have decamped to Pudsey to help - they must be confident here. Labour need a 5.9% swing in Brigg & Goole.
I'm a Labour supporter and wouldn't be surprised if Andrew Percy increased his majority
Can anyone on here clarify UKIP's policy on the EU? I know it's 100% not gonna happen but would they hold a referendum before leaving the EU or just do it?
Took a lot of stick when I first suggested that 2015 might be a good election to lose.
2 days out, My views haven't really changed and this is why.
1) Numbers - Unless the polls are drastically wrong the numbers are a complete dogs breakfast. Whoever governs is going to allsorts of problems from being propped up by parties with self interest, questions over legitimacy, problems with rebels within the party, etc,etc.
2) The Economy/Deficit - Whether you believe that the black swan is coming or not (China, Gr-exit, Bond Market Crash or whatever), make no mistake, the GDP figures were not a blip - they are a sign of things to come and if so, all of the parties fancy pledges on spending are going straight to the shredder. Whether Labour or Tory led, the next government is going to need to raise taxes and cut spending quite a bit beyond what most people are even willing to think about, or take the Greek route.
3) The NHS - It's virtually unmanageable and unaffordable. I have no doubt that whichever party gets control of this, will be regretting it during their time in government and they will come out with significantly lower ratings on the NHS than they enter with. This will almost certainly be the last election fought on how much money can be chucked at it. Radical reform will be the platform future elections are fought on.
4) Europe / The rise of UKIP - Suppose Labour win - no referendum - continued Eurozone problems - Suddenly all of UKIPs decent second places in the Midlands and the north will become winnable and where they are not second, they soon will be. Ok, a Tory win - referendum delivered (by no means certain without a majority), narrow YES to stay in on the back of all mainstream parties campaigning for YES. Sizeable NO vote start to drift to UKIP, perhaps not as dramatically as the SNP situation, but that experience is there for all to see, so nothing can be ruled out.
That is why if I was CAM and I got sub 310, I would say no thank you. If I was Ed and was on fewer seats, I would say the same thing.
Off topic do you know what a floater is ?
In the context of my user-name, it means someone who is yet to make their mind up on which way to vote.
Of course ! please keep on here it makes me smile everytime I think of a floater in the Thames at Greenwich. Puerile I know.
The anecdotal evidence and the mood music continues to be much better for the Tories than the polls. In my opinion the 2010 Tory vote is pretty rock solid where it matters with the drift to UKIP only being significant where Labour are not competitive.
In some seats this will not be enough as the red Liberals get Labour over the top. I expect Broxtowe to be one of these but the number is not large. Labour are likely to lose at least 35 seats in Scotland. Will they make that number of gains to get back to their current level? The polls say yes but the anecdotes say not.
It is possible that this is all some Romneyian delusion, that the polls are right and that Labour are going to walk this. It just does not feel like that.
Today, driving home in monsoon conditions from Glasgow I was listening to R5 in Warwickshire. Almost everyone they spoke to was voting tory or UKIP. They eventually found a Labour voter but he was only 95%. The 5% was Miliband, he was just not sure about him.
This is Labour's number 1 target and Ed was there today. Why is he in a target lower than 50? Are their polling figures that bad?
I agree with most of this post - and on the day I expect that either the polls are right or Con will be just a few seats away from a majority (306 + ~18 from Lib -5 to 15 Lab - Clacton = 308-318) (the Lab votes being piled up in safe seats while there being little swing in the midlands). The former being significantly more likely than the latter.
I'm reading that some posters believe that private polling by Conservatives and Labour may be showing a greater Conservative lead than the polls of which we have visibility.
Can anyone tell me why this might be the case? Is it because it is more detailed and shows up local variations from the mean that might change things? Or because they are asking more searching questions?
Otherwise I am at a loss to understand why some might believe the situation is more favourable to the Conservatives than the published polling figures might suggest.
Not read anyone say its private polling. Seems to be more like canvass returns.
But why should this be so out of step with the opinion polls?
Having had a few days away from PB with friends and family in the 'real world' I can say that in my experience nobody is talking about the election and that I have never seen fewer party posters.
Before I forget may I wish all PBers who are standing for election the best of luck and all those who will campaign in the next two days an enjoyable time.
Irrespective of your political views you are all doing a service on behalf of democracy.
Please could someone kindly tell me what EICIPM means?
Many thanks!
No idea!!
OK I do
Think it was first used in June last year when PB Tories were insistent in every thread that Ed is Crap
A LAB poster (ok it was me) decided it would be mildly amusing to post after every poll showing Ed ahead that on that poll Ed is Crap is PM (EICIPM)
Bet you wished you hadn't asked.
I will happily keep using the EICIPM acronym every time some Kipper on here wails and moans about no EU referendum or some new disaster befalls the madcap administration about to take office.
Oh yes, I'll keep reminding those who are responsible for him assuming power!
Some sort of glossary of terms for this site may help. Bit of an acronym maze at first.
I recommend plain English as a goal.
That just goes against everything I stand for.
Well, that's plain enough.
Curses, you're right. I may need to bust out a 300 word, multiple parentheses, oddly comma'd, and several hyphenated-paragraph in a single sentence to compensate. That's the real me.
Can anyone on here clarify UKIP's policy on the EU? I know it's 100% not gonna happen but would they hold a referendum before leaving the EU or just do it?
My understanding is they would hold a referendum as it is such an important constitutional issue. The difference being that it would not be on the basis of some false 'renegotiation' but on the basis of the EU as it is now and as they believe it will continue to develop.
The basic position is that if you are in a club you abide by the rules of the club rather than expecting everyone else to abide by the rules whilst trying to get exceptions just for yourself.
This is Labour's number 1 target and Ed was there today. Why is he in a target lower than 50? Are their polling figures that bad?
Perhaps the Labour machine know that they have bigger vote winners than Ed. And they have to send him somewhere - he can't do too much damage in their number 1 target. Can he?
Dair Their fundamental belief is for an EU referendum and only 1 PM will give them that
Yeah but he along with the leaders of the other 2 establishment parties are all going to pulling for the same outcome. Only a small band of Tories will refuse to tow the party line and campaign for an exit.
I've literally begged some switchers to UKIP to come back to secure the referendum they want and stop Labour getting in. But I think the Scottish independence campaign gave them a taste of what will happen if Dave does give them their referendum. It'll be the small band of crazies versus Cons, Lab, Lib Dem, big business, the city, the media, etc. It's a completely unwinnable campaign. It's this reasonable logic that made me realise how unfair it is for me to expect my friends who switched from Conservative to UKIP to come home now. If they come home now, we're just setting them up for failure and disappointment later.
For the record, while sympathetic to some of those anti-EU views, I think we should very much stay in the EU.
This is Labour's number 1 target and Ed was there today. Why is he in a target lower than 50? Are their polling figures that bad?
Perhaps the Labour machine know that they have bigger vote winners than Ed. And they have to send him somewhere - he can't do too much damage in their number 1 target. Can he?
Depends whether he dragged his paperweight along with him or not
'I'm reading that some posters believe that private polling by Conservatives and Labour may be showing a greater Conservative lead than the polls of which we have visibility.'
Difficult with so many unknowns, but if you follow where the party leaders have been in the past few days it may tell you something.
Why is Ed bothering to be in North Warwickshire to-day which requires just 54 votes to be a Labour gain ?
Comments
The (strong) push was EICIPM and the pull was the Conservative manifesto, which is the best I think I could realistically have hoped for.
OK crap joke about Kipper voters being accessories anyway!!
Yet the polls are pointing to an election that is TCTC.
Thurs night will be interesting, that is the only certainty in this election.
Also interesting is that Daily Mirror has re-instated its Comments section while the Daily Record (same website, interface, etc) has not. Before the suspended it (a month before the First Indyref) it was heavily pro-Independence and pro-SNP.
Goodnight.
Tories you said the polls were going to move in the last 72 hours..
Is Blay not the UKIP candidate?
Maybe i got hold of wrong end of stick?
Casino had already made clear perhaps more than a week ago that he had returned to the Tory fold. I don't agree with him but he has taken an intellectual journey and kept PB informed at every step of the way. It is clear it has not been easy for him and it appears it is a very reluctant vote for the Tories but given his UKIP candidates actions this evening I suspect he will consider he has had a lucky escape this time.
My hope is that he returns to UKIP in the future when it becomes clear that Cameron simply cannot and will not deliver what he wants.
You should me worried about people like me, MikeK, who seriously considered voting UKIP. And for this man in my constituency.
Surely, you can agree with me that he's a disgrace?
The (strong) push was EICIPM and the pull was the Conservative manifesto, which is the best I think I could realistically have hoped for.
Those faint hearted will never change anything in the UK and deserve all the dissapointment thay ask for.
The (strong) push was EICIPM and the pull was the Conservative manifesto, which is the best I think I could realistically have hoped for.
And all that for nothing.
Good.
I finally get it now! Long day, brain not fully focussed.
it's his full name.
Just short of 50 Lab gains from Con and cherio Dave.
OK I do
Think it was first used in June last year when PB Tories were insistent in every thread that Ed is Crap
A LAB poster (ok it was me) decided it would be mildly amusing to post after every poll showing Ed ahead that on that poll Ed is Crap is PM (EICIPM)
Bet you wished you hadn't asked.
Surely, you can agree with me that he's a disgrace?
Party represented by racists and fruit cakes. No nutcase filter so desperate were they to contest everywhere and get Ed into number ten so there is no referendum and therefore a continued 'need' for them to exist
It was Cameron's pathetic flip-flopping on immigration that finally drove me into the arms of UKIP - at the time.
"Read my lips: I will get what Britain needs."
I read that as being (as was heavily trailed and leaked by CCHQ) a cap on EU immigration of 75k a year, which I thought was an entirely reasonably reform to ask for in reforming the UK's membership of the EU for the long-term, recognising it to be both outside Schengen and the Euro.
It turned out to be whatever Auntie Merkel said "yes" to (which is some dilly-dallying on benefit entitlements) but it was spun as the same thing, and that made me give up.
Oh and meant to add that those who do return will be very disappointed with Cameron come that referendum.
It would only take a couple of grand to bring it down to Ed 1.7 / DC 2.4
"Just got back from London where I recorded several TV interviews plus made a contribution to the BBC News Channel’s prediction round which will be shown tomorrow. Unlike all the others who are participating I was the only one with a LAB lead – albeit of only one seat."
Smithson Junior from his forecast of the GE Result posted on PB this morning:
Tories ..... 311 seats
Labour .... 248 seats
So there's the small matter of 64 seats between father and son. Necks very firmly on the line there and no mistake!
I disagree. The Coalition has revolutionised our education system with free schools, more rigorous exams and a solid curriculum. Welfare has been rolled back and the Universal Credit will mean that work pays. Our universities are better funded than ever before. Cameron capped the EU budget and will deliver us a referendum. The bureaucracy has been overcome on planning reform, and great new infrastructure projects are going ahead. There is lot of change going on if you look for it.
Surely, you can agree with me that he's a disgrace?I was always going to vote for Ranil anyway, but this has made me question my decision to vote UKIP in the District Council election. Surely the local party must have known what he was like?
And what bile? The only poster for whom I have bile on this site is @FalseFlag, a man whose sole mission in life is to big up Vladamir Putin.
My ambition - as I've often stated - is a looser relationship with the EU, but one which preserves freedom of labour. (This means EFTA/EEA - and which results in i., no benefits for migrants, ii. no right to remain if without a job, and iii., the ability to kick people out if they commit a crime.) I realise this is less than what UKIP stands for. And I realise there are few people standing up for freedom of people to work where they like, and to hire who they like.
I think the rise of UKIP makes my dream far less likely. Sometimes I wonder if Nigel Farage is in the pay of the EU; essentially creating a caricature of Eurosceptics.
I promise never to use it again after 8/5/15
Took a lot of stick when I first suggested that 2015 might be a good election to lose.
2 days out, My views haven't really changed and this is why.
1) Numbers - Unless the polls are drastically wrong the numbers are a complete dogs breakfast. Whoever governs is going to allsorts of problems from being propped up by parties with self interest, questions over legitimacy, problems with rebels within the party, etc,etc.
2) The Economy/Deficit - Whether you believe that the black swan is coming or not (China, Gr-exit, Bond Market Crash or whatever), make no mistake, the GDP figures were not a blip - they are a sign of things to come and if so, all of the parties fancy pledges on spending are going straight to the shredder. Whether Labour or Tory led, the next government is going to need to raise taxes and cut spending quite a bit beyond what most people are even willing to think about, or take the Greek route.
3) The NHS - It's virtually unmanageable and unaffordable. I have no doubt that whichever party gets control of this, will be regretting it during their time in government and they will come out with significantly lower ratings on the NHS than they enter with. This will almost certainly be the last election fought on how much money can be chucked at it. Radical reform will be the platform future elections are fought on.
4) Europe / The rise of UKIP - Suppose Labour win - no referendum - continued Eurozone problems - Suddenly all of UKIPs decent second places in the Midlands and the north will become winnable and where they are not second, they soon will be. Ok, a Tory win - referendum delivered (by no means certain without a majority), narrow YES to stay in on the back of all mainstream parties campaigning for YES. Sizeable NO vote start to drift to UKIP, perhaps not as dramatically as the SNP situation, but that experience is there for all to see, so nothing can be ruled out.
That is why if I was CAM and I got sub 310, I would say no thank you. If I was Ed and was on fewer seats, I would say the same thing.
It was a major failing of the Coalition that they failed to bring such a law in after promising to do so.
I fully expect to be disappointed by a re-elected Cameron government. But I'm not voting for someone who would call my wife a f**king immigrant and demand she returns to her country.
I remain a supporter of EU withdrawal, and controlled limited immigration, both of which I think are sensible and moderate causes and I will work to best advance the causes of both.
Given Cameron will probably need DUP and UKIP support for a majority he will have to stick to a referendum though I agree he would likely end up on the In side
There's been some tinkering round the edges. Otherwise, status quo.
I still have hopes for Scotterdämmerung.
I think it's worth a punt going in at 3 and 5 seats due to the possible existence of three things:
1. The 'spiral of silence' unionist vote.
2. The Tartan Tories being put off by the increased socialist positioning of the SNP since 2011.
3. The unionist vote seeing the Tories as the main unionist party.
The often small Labour vote in lots of Northern seats also mean the the SNP have less to squeeze.
If (and that's a big if) all three things are there then the pandas may have to get breeding
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3069158/Meet-Ted-Miliband-radical-student-protester-leading-rent-strike-behalf-Oxford-students.html
I'm not that worried really about EdM as PM - he'll most likely be the 2nd worst ever, but we survived Gordo. It's EdB that truly disturbs me.
Nevertheless, I do think some Tories at least might run the risk of attempting to console themselves that it is better to lose this one, which might cushion them from addressing the reasons for why they will lose this one, because it didn't really matter and they'll win by a mile next time as a result (so the theory might go). That just goes against everything I stand for.
I do not think anything is settled yet. Should David Cameron get re-elected, the European Union will need to accept he's not going away and will take him a lot more seriously. If the Conservatives are serious about winning a referendum, they will simply have to negotiate some sort of limit on immigration. Maybe that's not a cap. Maybe it's some sort of longer transitional controls put back on Eastern Europe. Maybe something else I have not considered. But it has to be something that actually limits immigration, not just limits what they can get once they are here. The "open borders" line is a killer on the doorstep, and as long as the Better Off Out side can honestly use the term we will lose the referendum. I'm certain of it.
I think I might have actually voted for him in the 2014 local elections in the Odiham ward.
Incidentally I can concur with what just about everyone is saying, there are a lot of people, far more than usual, still genuinely undecided out there.
I suspect they will revert to type on Thursday.
Can anyone tell me why this might be the case? Is it because it is more detailed and shows up local variations from the mean that might change things? Or because they are asking more searching questions?
Otherwise I am at a loss to understand why some might believe the situation is more favourable to the Conservatives than the published polling figures might suggest.
In some seats this will not be enough as the red Liberals get Labour over the top. I expect Broxtowe to be one of these but the number is not large. Labour are likely to lose at least 35 seats in Scotland. Will they make that number of gains to get back to their current level? The polls say yes but the anecdotes say not.
It is possible that this is all some Romneyian delusion, that the polls are right and that Labour are going to walk this. It just does not feel like that.
Today, driving home in monsoon conditions from Glasgow I was listening to R5 in Warwickshire. Almost everyone they spoke to was voting tory or UKIP. They eventually found a Labour voter but he was only 95%. The 5% was Miliband, he was just not sure about him.
This is Labour's number 1 target and Ed was there today. Why is he in a target lower than 50? Are their polling figures that bad?
Maybe you think Clerkin is smart enough to create a conspiracy, I don't. Maybe you should order your tinfoil helmet.
With current polls and uniform swing, Labour would lose by 5%...and IIRC Labour didn't have good results in local elections during the 2010-15 period (North Lincolnshire went Lab to Con in 2011)....so I would expect a worse than average Labour performance there regardless what the average will be
Any of the three border seats would be possible - I have them for one or two of these.
The only other candidates are where they were second and the SNP a long way back relying on holding vote up and SNP charge not being enough despite a Lib/Lab meltdown - I make that three of the Edinburgh seats (w s and SW) East Lothian and West Ab and Kincardine
They won't get within 10 percent of winning any of those apart from, perhaps, WAK IMO
'The buzz going around those in the supposed 'know', is that the GE will see a substantially increase in voting numbers. If true, and not some random remark, then my hopes of a remarkable change may be realised.'
Are you still forecasting 55 UKIP MP's ?
Bit of a weird election - unprecedented (in my lifetime) vote switches with the rise of UKIP and SNP, the demise of the Lib Dems, yet the two main parties could come out almost the same (probably some Labour improvement on 2010).
Labour should have won easily on the back of austerity, however they were handicapped by the mud sticking to them for cause of it and perhaps a leader that lacks a little charisma.
They are focussing on their 10th-50th targets, with a couple or so in the top 10 targets, which tells me they're very confident about 15 gains or so, but don't think they can top 50.
That explains their panic, because it gives their maximum seat tally (if everything goes right) as no more than 285, and it'll most probably be less.
" I’ve been in Goole a couple of times recently – and noticed that Percy and Crawford have offices a few doors apart.
What struck me was how undeprived it looked.
Certainly not affluent but respectable even in the cheaper areas.
Considering that Goole is Labour’s best area in this constituency I think they have no chance here.
In fact I wouldn’t be surprised to see an increased Conservative majority. "
There's more chance of a 5000+ Con maj in Brigg & Goole than a Labour gain.
Before I forget may I wish all PBers who are standing for election the best of luck and all those who will campaign in the next two days an enjoyable time.
Irrespective of your political views you are all doing a service on behalf of democracy.
Oh yes, I'll keep reminding those who are responsible for him assuming power!
Well it looks like I got it about right with my prediction from October last year...
MarkHopkins
October 26, 2014 6:56PM
I think I can confidently make a prediction:-
Con Maj - Possibly
Lab Maj - Maybe
Lab Min - Could be
Con Min - Might happen
The basic position is that if you are in a club you abide by the rules of the club rather than expecting everyone else to abide by the rules whilst trying to get exceptions just for yourself.
I've literally begged some switchers to UKIP to come back to secure the referendum they want and stop Labour getting in. But I think the Scottish independence campaign gave them a taste of what will happen if Dave does give them their referendum. It'll be the small band of crazies versus Cons, Lab, Lib Dem, big business, the city, the media, etc. It's a completely unwinnable campaign. It's this reasonable logic that made me realise how unfair it is for me to expect my friends who switched from Conservative to UKIP to come home now. If they come home now, we're just setting them up for failure and disappointment later.
For the record, while sympathetic to some of those anti-EU views, I think we should very much stay in the EU.
'I'm reading that some posters believe that private polling by Conservatives and Labour may be showing a greater Conservative lead than the polls of which we have visibility.'
Difficult with so many unknowns, but if you follow where the party leaders have been in the past few days it may tell you something.
Why is Ed bothering to be in North Warwickshire to-day which requires just 54 votes to be a Labour gain ?