Just got back from London where I recorded several TV interviews plus made a contribution to the BBC News Channel’s prediction round which will be shown tomorrow. Unlike all the others who are participating I was the only one with a LAB lead – albeit of only one seat.
Comments
Exactly.
And that is why I have been of the view all campaign that unless there was a sustained swing back to the Tories and a pronounced Tory lead, the result would be 40-50 Tory/Lab marginals going back red.
There has been no swing back, and no pronounced Tory lead.
So Labour will sweep through these Tory marginals like a knife through butter.
I currently think that as nothing has shifted, and with a better GOTV, Labour might well win back more than 50 marginals from the Tories on Thursday.
I just don't see how a Tory Party nobbled by UKIP can avoid such losses.
What's driving this rise in optimism?
Are the Tories happy with the private polling? Or is it a bluff?
On the night itself the bar will open at 5pm. We’ll start showing the BBC election night coverage when it begins at 10pm on our big screen, but there’ll be rolling news coverage before that.
From 11pm - when the pub closes to the general public and becomes ticket only (£15 a person) - tea, coffee and mineral water are included and there’ll be some bar snacks available too.
Alcoholic drinks can be purchased from the bar throughout the night - we have been granted a 24 hour licence for the 7th/8th May.
We have wifi and 4G coverage and there’s also going to be a back-up wifi account if, for whatever reason, there’s a problem with on the night.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/06/us/politics/mike-huckabee-running-in-republican-presidential-primary.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=second-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/595566315647148033
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594848871144128512/photo/1
With this:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/595227883448205312
FYI you'll be pleased to know I have carried on that drinking tradition
The fat lady is warming up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIVfbylUU-M
I'd be peed off if I thought in a tight marginal my Party wasn't going full tilt at it.
At the time I was more irritated by the bad reporting and the attempt to blame the Yes campaign!
Labour's GOTV machine is by far the best of any political party - this has to be factored in.
No polls show that the Tories will have enough seats for a coalition.
And Mori is the last one that shows a Tory lead sufficient enough for most seats.
If Mori moves to back towards the rest of the polls then no poll will show the Tories with most seats.
The Fat Lady is warming up.
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02855/Advertising-Rate-C_2855621a.pdf
coincidentally after Putin announced his policy in 2008 of increasing the population the national stats body has been recording a small decline in early male deaths (a big problem) and a small rise in births to Russian ethnic women
when do you think the Tories will finally go for pr and we can get in with building a centre right liberal conservative party?
I expect 3 or 4 seats for UKIP this time round.
http://www.totalpolitics.com/blog/449056/seven-of-londons-best-election-night-party-venues.thtml
1. Tory voters vote tactically for UKIP to deny Labour most seats.
2. Labour voters vote tactically for UKIP to deny the Tories most seats.
3. Tory voters get demoralized by the impending defeat and vote UKIP in protest.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/are-labour-losing
05/05/2015 17:35
There's a 16-page general election betting special in tomorrow's Racing Post.
I don't think Labour can quite believe it, as their odd media moves and some silly gaffes (as much as there have been any at all, certainly no massive ones besides the amusing if inconsequential Edstone) have given the impression with the mood music that Tories are doing well. They are not, if we can believe the polls.
I've stuck to my guns and been consistent all campaign - 40-50 Tory-held marginals lost, mitigated by c.10 Tory gains from the LDs, and 2-3 other surprise Tory gains elsewhere. Either way, leaving the Tories marooned on about 270-275 give or take.
I think my only posted prediction on here was something like Con 274 and Lab 296 - I now think both will come in around 265-270 and 285-290 respectively. If Labour are decimated in Scotland, then it will obviously be closer depending on the scale of the massacre I still doubt is going to happen - but it will only mean more SNP seats to lock out Cameron.
I think only a UKIP collapse, or at least Lab>UKIP defectors staying firm massively across England, can really get the Tories in front. And I think if UKIPers really were frit with the SNP or Miliband threats, that would have fed through to the pollsters by now.
Think your twitters been hacked
The media coverage is predicting another hung parliament. Why vote Lab/Con if they're not going to win?
Or at least the Tories will be kicked out of power in 48hrs.
MikeK's forecast for the GE......:
Con 29% Lab 28% UKIP 21% L/Dem 7% SNP 5% Grn 3% Others 7%
Travelled around Hampstead and Camden Town this morning and the absence of posters and billboards is striking. I saw one window in Camden displaying a vote Labour poster; just one in miles of streets in this Labour London heartland. Uncanny! It's as if people have decided to vote - if at all - in silence.
Thats why I believe a silent revolution, utterly British, is in the making.
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/595634597871878144
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft
You haven't seen the last of the ANP. My final 3,000-sample pre-election phone poll will be published on Thursday morning on @ConHome
Can't see it myself.
When a party splits, the hatred towards the sister rival party exceeds the hatred towards the opposite political parties. The example was the Alliance, the Labour voters that left for the Alliance didn't return until Clegg got into bed with Cameron, 29 years later.
Definitely curious to see how the Con>UKIP switchers hold up, especially in con/lab marginals.
Check out PR-squared
http://www.jdawiseman.com/papers/electsys/pr2.html
I was just chatting to two acquaintances from the Midlands (not Nick P's ex-or-possibly-soon-to-be parish) who had already postal voted. They were tempted by UKIP, but had voted for the incumbent Conservative because she had responded to the few things they had emailed her, and had actually escalated one issue.
Incumbency does matter.
Their views on Miliband were (ahem) somewhat stronger than mine ...
My suspicion remains that, while Labour will almost sweep the board in the Lib-Lab marginals, they're going to make precious few gains from the Tories outside of London. I still simply don't think they've given Labour-inclined people enough reason to turn out and vote, and while they have a top-notch GOTV operation in London which might overcome that, the GOTV is pretty overrated in much of the rest of the country IMO.
Tories to have a lead of about 4-5% and over 300 seats, on a turnout of less than 60%.
Darren McCaffrey (@DMcCaffreySKY)
05/05/2015 18:07
MT @FredianiITV: VIDEO: @Ed_Miliband's first TV appearance during student rent strike in 1991: itv.com/news/meridian/… pic.twitter.com/kmnbgrTwoi
Also no one believes Cameron and his promises.
https://twitter.com/cambuslangsteve/status/595567658915000320
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/thanet-south/winning-party
And another one's down
Labour ain't got no seats
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4biL1Act6I
A single Labour sign. Labour get over 50% of the vote here.
PB Tories: Yeah!
Sgt. Sunil: Are ya mean?
PB Tories: YEAH!
Sgt. Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU?
PB Tories: LEAN AND MEAN!
Sgt. Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU? Rob D! Get on the ready line, PB Tories, get some today! Get on the ready line! Move it out! Move it out, goddammit! Get hot! One, two, three, four! Get out, get out, get out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! One, two, three, four, five, six, seven! Aaarrrrr, absolutely badasses! Let's pack 'em in! Get in there!
(I lived on the street the pub is on for six months, but cannot remember the pub at all. Either I was very, very drunk for all that time, my memory's been shot by too much coding, or it has changed its name?)
A reduced UKIP vote leaves some 'interesting' odds on what are now fairly safe Tory seats.
Dwayne Dibley!!!
I suspect there is a bit of that in the NS article, but I also believe that Labour is going to significantly under-perform the UNS numbers. A lot of sitting Labour MPs will increase their majorities, the Labour vote share will go up, but gains against both the LDs and Tories will be relatively light and certainly nowhere near enough for Labour to be the largest party.
OGH has a theory that naming the candidates will provide a boost for Clegg, Murphy and Farage in the polls, ICM has aided him on that.
The assumption appears to be that LAB will put on votes where it doesn’t matter but will do less well where it does. I don’t buy it and there’s precious little supporting evidence.
The important point is the the Tories will lose votes where it doesn't matter. So what if the Tories suffer a loss of 5-10% to Ukip in their safe seats, they are not going to be moved from the blue column
Couldn't have been designed better to play at worries floating voters have re Ed and the economy.