The groupthink mike speaks of assumes Ukip will get 2-3 seats from a double figure vote share too
UKIP's problem is that it isn't doing nearly badly enough in it's no hoper seats. The vast array of 2nd places in the North should give a solid base for GE2020 though.
I expect 3 or 4 seats for UKIP this time round.
Thanet, Clacton and Thurrock I assume. Plus R&S or Boston?
A reduced UKIP vote leaves some 'interesting' odds on what are now fairly safe Tory seats.
I've totally filled my boots in Sittingbourne Sheppey, Christchurch, Kettering and some others.
The main thing that makes me wonder about the polls is Labour's brittle emotional state at present. It's hard to credit unless they have fairly tangible evidence that the polls aren't telling the whole story.
Isn't that simply because Labour have realised they won't get a clear neat win, and are actually starting to contemplate the horror of regaining power and trying to govern whilst being behind on seats?
The important point is the the Tories will lose votes where it doesn't matter. So what if the Tories suffer a loss of 5-10% to Ukip in their safe seats, they are not going to be moved from the blue column
A possibility, to be sure. Personally I find it hard to accept that the national polls would be as poor (or rather not good enough) for the Tories and yet they will still win on that basis of that alone though. And the other potential factors to help the Tories are even less visible.
The main thing that makes me wonder about the polls is Labour's brittle emotional state at present. It's hard to credit unless they have fairly tangible evidence that the polls aren't telling the whole story.
Isn't that simply because Labour have realised they won't get a clear neat win, and are actually starting to contemplate the horror of regaining power and trying to govern whilst being behind on seats?
That Staggers article also reports doubts within Labour that their worrying is actually justified, and that apparently they always think they are going to lose at every election. Even the Staggers' conclusion isn't sure whether the worrying is justified or not. I'm rather puzzled by it; tbh I can't see the evidence for Labour's worrying. The Tories appear to be confident because they think (a. they'll at least get the popular vote (b. Tory party hierarchy feel they are assured of another coalition with the LDs to keep them in government (c. that Labour will be so afraid of being associated with the SNP, they won't vote down anything will could weaken the government. All of which are quite debatable, but the last two especially.
The groupthink mike speaks of assumes Ukip will get 2-3 seats from a double figure vote share too
UKIP's problem is that it isn't doing nearly badly enough in it's no hoper seats. The vast array of 2nd places in the North should give a solid base for GE2020 though.
I expect 3 or 4 seats for UKIP this time round.
Thanet, Clacton and Thurrock I assume. Plus R&S or Boston?
A reduced UKIP vote leaves some 'interesting' odds on what are now fairly safe Tory seats.
You'd have to go with R&S for the fourth I think due to incumbency factor. The youngish Boston candidate may well cost UKIP the seat unfortunately.
Boston is interesting because it is under UKIP control somewhat, it is the strongest local UKIP stronghold and the Tory MP retired, also the UKIP candidate despite his young age is a local councillor. I say it's 50-50 but only because a LordA poll had it very close, the Survation one had it on a huge double digit lead for UKIP.
I find it hard to see how the polling swings in England and Wales can be just ignored. In England & Wales in 2010 the Tories were 10.2% ahead of LAB on voters. It is very hard to discount current margins of just one or two.
The assumption appears to be that LAB will put on votes where it doesn’t matter but will do less well where it does. I don’t buy it and there’s precious little supporting evidence.
The important point is the the Tories will lose votes where it doesn't matter. So what if the Tories suffer a loss of 5-10% to Ukip in their safe seats, they are not going to be moved from the blue column
I do seem to remember at 2010, the Tories actually by their historically low standard put on a fair few votes in some places like RedCar and then woefully under performed in some traditional Tory seats / marginals they were expected to walk e.g Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones failed in deepest darkest farmer country of Chippenham.
Off the top of my head there was a lot of excitement from the Tories and early claims exit polls might be wrong and not hung parliament, due to showing so well in some early traditionally Labour seats that they had no chance of ever winnings, but then had lots of misses on marginals.
Labour has never seen itself as the natural party of government in this country. It is perennially pessimistic about its chances, something which also affects the way it governs. What happened in I992 probably stung the party more than any other election it has ever contested.
I suspect there is a bit of that in the NS article, but I also believe that Labour is going to significantly under-perform the UNS numbers. A lot of sitting Labour MPs will increase their majorities, the Labour vote share will go up, but gains against both the LDs and Tories will be relatively light and certainly nowhere near enough for Labour to be the largest party.
Might be true, but probably bollocks. Wouldn't be the first time this sort of story has turned up out of nowhere. Good news, only two days 'til we start to find out.
Labour has never seen itself as the natural party of government in this country. It is perennially pessimistic about its chances, something which also affects the way it governs. What happened in I992 probably stung the party more than any other election it has ever contested.
I suspect there is a bit of that in the NS article, but I also believe that Labour is going to significantly under-perform the UNS numbers. A lot of sitting Labour MPs will increase their majorities, the Labour vote share will go up, but gains against both the LDs and Tories will be relatively light and certainly nowhere near enough for Labour to be the largest party.
Well UNS has never been more that 10 seats wrong on the Labour-Tory fight, 1997 was the only exception because of the huge LD tactical vote in the south.
Speedy The key is where the UKIP vote is coming from not where it has drifted back, and half of UKIP voters are ex Tories, so plenty of room for some of them to come back at the last minute to get an EU referendum and stop a Miliband-Sturgeon deal, just as voters moved to Likud in Israel from rightwing parties at the last minute. Indeed UKIP are still on 12% in Norwich N, 19% in Peterborough, 15% in Stourbridge and 14% in N Cornwall in the last batch of Ashcroft marginals polls, so plenty of room to be squeezed http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/05/mixed-fortunes-in-my-final-round-of-marginals/#more-11523
Before 1997 John Major of course won over 40% in 1992, the last Tory leader to do so
The groupthink mike speaks of assumes Ukip will get 2-3 seats from a double figure vote share too
UKIP's problem is that it isn't doing nearly badly enough in it's no hoper seats. The vast array of 2nd places in the North should give a solid base for GE2020 though.
I expect 3 or 4 seats for UKIP this time round.
Thanet, Clacton and Thurrock I assume. Plus R&S or Boston?
A reduced UKIP vote leaves some 'interesting' odds on what are now fairly safe Tory seats.
You'd have to go with R&S for the fourth I think due to incumbency factor. The youngish Boston candidate may well cost UKIP the seat unfortunately.
UKIP have been running a very strong ground game in Dudley North and have been able to pull in a lot of support from UKIP teams in Birmingham so I believe that seat is one of the possible (admittedly few) upsets that could see UKIP get an extra seat.
"Birmingham headteachers say they are subject to campaign of intimidation Schools in city caught in upheaval from the Trojan Horse investigation are targeted with dead animals in playgrounds and death threats on social media"
Con 29% Lab 28% UKIP 21% L/Dem 7% SNP 5% Grn 3% Others 7%
Travelled around Hampstead and Camden Town this morning and the absence of posters and billboards is striking. I saw one window in Camden displaying a vote Labour poster; just one in miles of streets in this Labour London heartland. Uncanny! It's as if people have decided to vote - if at all - in silence.
Thats why I believe a silent revolution, utterly British, is in the making.
Speedy The key is where the UKIP vote is coming from not where it has drifted back, and half of UKIP voters are ex Tories, so plenty of room for some of them to come back at the last minute to get an EU referendum and stop a Miliband-Sturgeon deal, just as voters moved to Likud in Israel from rightwing parties at the last minute. Indeed UKIP are still on 12% in Norwich N, 19% in Peterborough, 15% in Stourbridge and 14% in N Cornwall in the last batch of Ashcroft marginals polls, so plenty of room to be squeezed http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/05/mixed-fortunes-in-my-final-round-of-marginals/#more-11523
Before 1997 John Major of course won over 40% in 1992, the last Tory leader to do so
You see the key is always where the vote is drifting back, if it is. You forget that UKIP voters are made up of people who detest Cameroonianism.
And I will repeat it, no one believes Cameron's promises.
1. Clacton 2. Thanet South 3. Thurrock 4. Rochester & Strood 5. Boston & Skegness 6. Castle Point 7. Dudley North 8. Rother Valley 9. Walsall North 10.Great Grimsby
The main thing that makes me wonder about the polls is Labour's brittle emotional state at present. It's hard to credit unless they have fairly tangible evidence that the polls aren't telling the whole story.
I think the nervous breakdown over Scotland would cover it.
1. Clacton 2. Thanet South 3. Thurrock 4. Rochester & Strood 5. Boston & Skegness 6. Castle Point 7. Dudley North 8. Rother Valley 9. Walsall North 10.Great Grimsby
I think the candidate in Grimsby effectively kills any chance of that being a UKIP gain.
Labour has never seen itself as the natural party of government in this country. It is perennially pessimistic about its chances, something which also affects the way it governs. What happened in I992 probably stung the party more than any other election it has ever contested.
I suspect there is a bit of that in the NS article, but I also believe that Labour is going to significantly under-perform the UNS numbers. A lot of sitting Labour MPs will increase their majorities, the Labour vote share will go up, but gains against both the LDs and Tories will be relatively light and certainly nowhere near enough for Labour to be the largest party.
1992, 1970, 1959 (believe it or not - you may not when you check the result!)...Labour actually has quite a history of hubris and then humiliation when it comes to election results. Indeed, they have been more or less arrogant about their chances of winning for the last 15 months (cf @Jonathan).
I am not saying that such a shock is in store this time - merely that if Labour is pessimistic, there probably is a reason for it. It may be postal votes, or canvass returns, or simply the fact that while they have expended enormous energy on their campaign, it has been ill-directed and badly thought out. But whatever it is, it's clearly there.
Lord Oakeshott has been in Dewsbury today supporting the Labour candidate. She is one of the 30 from her party who received money in order to oust the sitting Conservative.
1. Clacton 2. Thanet South 3. Thurrock 4. Rochester & Strood 5. Boston & Skegness 6. Castle Point 7. Dudley North 8. Rother Valley 9. Walsall North 10.Great Grimsby
I agree, with the following chances: Clacton 100% Thanet South 60% Thurrock 80% Rochester 40% Boston 50% Castle Point 40%
The problem is on other seats that haven't been polled and might have slipped under the radar, anyway that is the reason why the range of UKIP seats goes from 3 up to 5.
"Birmingham headteachers say they are subject to campaign of intimidation Schools in city caught in upheaval from the Trojan Horse investigation are targeted with dead animals in playgrounds and death threats on social media"
It ok Khalid Mahmood will be on the case again, he's your man to clamp down on things like gender segregation...it isn't like he is happy to attend rallys were it occurs, on wait...
It is very easy if you have an interest in politics to get caught up in all the excitement (over excitement) of the next few days. The reality is that folk on here are very much in the minority and (despite OGH's strap line) part of a bubble of unreality. Most folk made their minds up weeks / months ago. All the 24hr news blah, newspaper headlines, leaflets through the door etc make very little difference. In a very few marginal seats, Russell Brand, Boris Johnson, punch ups on the streets of Glasgow or whatever might, just might, move a few voters to actually change the result. There is evidence from 2010 that where Labour's impressive ground operation is focused, it makes a real difference (eg Westminster North, Edgbaston, Gedling) but can it really make that much difference, especially if many voters are disaffected?
Logic and past experience, that the final result usually matches the polls before the short campaign starts, suggests OGHs views are right and the betting markets wrong (he has made a good deal of money from spotting when the market is wrong). Personal experience from the past few weeks leaves me firmly convinced Labour will do well in London, including picking up a seat not on most lists for Labour to win. However there is clearly nervousness about the prospects elsewhere, some of that is dictated by the groupthink OGH mentions but perhaps also generated because there are areas where Labour is simply not doing as well as it could be eg Medway Towns.
I think OGH is right but have a small nagging doubt he might not be, perhaps because of the experience from having "been there got the t shirt" in 92, when I was involved in a fantastically successful campaign (we won ) but the rest of the country was a different story.
Survation. @Survation 4m4 minutes ago POLL ALERT: 7PM - 2 days to go until polls open 30 mins until our next @DailyMirror poll @Jack_Blanchard_ reports "at the top of the hour".
I agree with Mike's logic and think that Labour having an equal number of seats is even money. Nobody is recognising that they have a huge army of supporters in key marginals that should enable them to deliver at least in line with the national polls
1. Clacton 2. Thanet South 3. Thurrock 4. Rochester & Strood 5. Boston & Skegness 6. Castle Point 7. Dudley North 8. Rother Valley 9. Walsall North 10.Great Grimsby
I agree. Clacton 100% Thanet South 60% Thurrock 80% Rochester 40% Boston 50% Castle Point 40%
The problem is on other seats that haven't been polled and might have slipped under the radar, anyway that is the reason why range of UKIP seats goes from 3 up to 5.
I think Great Grimsby will go Labour and kippers in third, but the Con highjinks in Dudley North could send it kipper.
"Places like Stockton South and Broxtowe have received extra staff, suggesting the party’s central data is projecting a tougher fight than expected by the polls – while alarmingly, seats like Pudsey, Ipswich and Northampton North are receiving no extra visits. Without those gains, even a combined Labour-SNP bloc won’t be sufficient to oust David Cameron.
One organiser sent me a text that summed up the overall message: “Dude, where’s my swing?”
“The only way I can explain our promise,” said another, “is if there is barely any swing at all.”"
I agree with Mike's logic and think that Labour having an equal number of seats is even money. Nobody is recognising that they have a huge army of supporters in key marginals that should enable them to deliver at least in line with the national polls
If they use them correctly. They have been shockingly badly used here. I agree with @JGC that where they are focussed and well-managed, it may make a difference - but otherwise it's hard to see them doing more than a shift a handful of ultra-marginals.
Speedy The hardcore UKIP voters detest Cameron yes, and UKIP will get around 10% at least, but at least 40% of UKIP voters voted for Cameron in 2010, even if only half those vote for him again that would give the Tories an extra 3% or so and get them up to around 37% and save a few more Tory marginals
1. Clacton 2. Thanet South 3. Thurrock 4. Rochester & Strood 5. Boston & Skegness 6. Castle Point 7. Dudley North 8. Rother Valley 9. Walsall North 10.Great Grimsby
I agree. Clacton 100% Thanet South 60% Thurrock 80% Rochester 40% Boston 50% Castle Point 40%
The problem is on other seats that haven't been polled and might have slipped under the radar, anyway that is the reason why range of UKIP seats goes from 3 up to 5.
I think Great Grimsby will go Labour and kippers in third, but the Con highjinks in Dudley North could send it kipper.
Since the Tories don't effectively have a candidate in Dudley North after that very amusing scandal there and UKIP was already second within range of Labour, yes there is a chance if only the Tory voters have thrown the towel.
But I'm sure Tory HQ will do it's best to prevent Tory tactical voting in favour of UKIP, even if it means Labour win the seat.
Survation. @Survation 4m4 minutes ago POLL ALERT: 7PM - 2 days to go until polls open 30 mins until our next @DailyMirror poll @Jack_Blanchard_ reports "at the top of the hour".
Con 29% Lab 28% UKIP 21% L/Dem 7% SNP 5% Grn 3% Others 7%
Travelled around Hampstead and Camden Town this morning and the absence of posters and billboards is striking. I saw one window in Camden displaying a vote Labour poster; just one in miles of streets in this Labour London heartland. Uncanny! It's as if people have decided to vote - if at all - in silence.
Thats why I believe a silent revolution, utterly British, is in the making.
In Eastleigh I have only seen one UKIP poster
That is one more than I have seen anywhere!
I saw a UKIP poster in Southampton! (And two Conservative ones. And four Labour ones - although perhaps it was more like two sets of two Labour posters..)
Speedy The hardcore UKIP voters detest Cameron yes, and UKIP will get around 10% at least, but at least 40% of UKIP voters voted for Cameron in 2010, even if only half those vote for him again that would give the Tories an extra 3% or so and get them up to around 37% and save a few more Tory marginals
I think they will prefer to shove him than vote for him again.
Labour has never seen itself as the natural party of government in this country. It is perennially pessimistic about its chances, something which also affects the way it governs. What happened in I992 probably stung the party more than any other election it has ever contested.
I suspect there is a bit of that in the NS article, but I also believe that Labour is going to significantly under-perform the UNS numbers. A lot of sitting Labour MPs will increase their majorities, the Labour vote share will go up, but gains against both the LDs and Tories will be relatively light and certainly nowhere near enough for Labour to be the largest party.
Might be true, but probably bollocks. Wouldn't be the first time this sort of story has turned up out of nowhere. Good news, only two days 'til we start to find out.
The media and many on here, will be declaring that a government led by Miliband would be illegitimate,
The main thing that makes me wonder about the polls is Labour's brittle emotional state at present. It's hard to credit unless they have fairly tangible evidence that the polls aren't telling the whole story.
Unless it's like the famous wobble which the Tories had during the 1987 campaign. In retrospect the result was never in doubt.
Speedy When they hover over their ballot papers and the prospect of a Miliband premiership under the thumb of Salmond and no EU referendum hovers into view I would not be surprised if a few stick with the blue team in the end
@speedy,foxinsoxuk etc. Re Hull area - I think that we'll get surprises. Hull East - 3am! I wouldn't give a fig for the seat normally, but for 2-Jags old haunt to go purple would be quite a lot of fun.
Speedy When they hover over their ballot papers and the prospect of a Miliband premiership under the thumb of Salmond and no EU referendum hovers into view I would not be surprised if a few stick with the blue team in the end
I think the prospect of a Cameron premiership under the thumb of Clegg and no EU referendum is equally appalling. But just to see Cameron's face when he's booted out of No.10 tips the scales to UKIP with many of their voters.
I spent a day there (it's very hard to get to). An incredible place. V spooky. It was abandoned in the 19th century due to an overabundance of earthquakes, and witches.
How on earth did communities like that subsist? I can see abandoned terraces in the background there but it doesn't look nearly enough for the population, there doesn't seem to be much grazing.
I can understand people abandoning them as unsuitable for modernity, no roads and stuff. But how did a community even develop there without any visible agricultural prospects?
EICIPM market Mystic Dan does the trick as back to yesterdays levels after DH declares Dave the winner
Dave drifted like a barge in last 3 hours
The DH call is the worst news I've heard this week.
Until you saw Roger call it for Dave, surely.
Roger got the Scottish referendum correct didn`t he. I always look out for Southam, he makes me laugh, especially on the night before the Scottish referendum , he was still giving his money away,
Right - about to set off for the pb.com meet-up in Broxtowe. A chance to kidnap share a pint with Nick.
Victoria pub, 85 Dovecote Lane, Beeston NG9 1JG from about 8 if anyone local is reading and at a loose end...
Not surprisingly as a Tory, I want Nick to fall short, decent chap though he seems to be, but I'm a bit surprised he's down the pub 36 hours before the polls open rather than doing all he can to round up every last Labour voter.
Is he supremely confident he's got Broxtowe in the bag, or does he know it's not going to happen?
roadto326 retweeted Will Jennings @drjennings 2m2 minutes ago Will Jennings retweeted Guardian news Abolishing statutory maternity pay? Wow.
Very helpful leak even if it terms out again to be "blue sky" thinking, thats tomorrow BBC new cycle sorted. Wonder how long the Guardian have been sitting on it, waiting to deploy at the most helpful time.
The leaked proposals say the DWP is at high risk of continuing to overspend on sickness and disability benefits in future years because the high-profile programme of welfare reform introduced by Duncan Smith in 2010 “has not realised its goals” of saving money.
Jack Blanchard @Jack_Blanchard_ 27s28 seconds ago Today's Mirror/Survation poll: LAB 34 (n/c) CON 33 (n/c) UKIP 16 (n/c) LD 9 (n/c) SNP 4 (+1) GREEN 4 (+1) OTHER 1 (-1)
Does increasing your number of seats by 10 or 20 count as "winning"?
Some of this is simply not true and much of it rather understandable nerves.
Perhaps an indication that some of the speculation in the past 48 hours is overdone is the fact that Yvette Cooper lead a bus full of folk around 6 constituencies today, Hove, the 2 Brighton seats, Croydon Central & Bermondsey. If there was real concern about places like Westminster North and Hampstead they would have gone there instead of longer shot marginals.
As to what counts as "winning", that is likely to be more than an abstract philosophical discussion on Friday morning
Speedy Clegg has said an EU referendum is not a red line, public spending on education is, so that would not be a problem, the prospect of a Miliband premiership is more of a fear for them, especially as UKIP voters heavily favour a Cameron over Miliband premiership
roadto326 retweeted Will Jennings @drjennings 2m2 minutes ago Will Jennings retweeted Guardian news Abolishing statutory maternity pay? Wow.
I really doubt SMP will be abolished. The ability of (some?) firms to claim it back from their NI bill on the other hand? That could save a small chunk of the £12bn. (After all the Coalition managed to remove small firms' ability to reclaim SSP from their NI bill with hardly a squeak from anyone.)
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
went running yesterday: nine miles. # electoral posters = # machine guns
on the bus to hel(l)ensburgh and back today: # snp placards > # scottish tory und unionist placards > the three lib dem diamonds on one gate such that you could only see them if you were heading in one direction > zero dirty labour placards (= # placards from the party i'll be voting for on thursday)
took the train to the big city. saw a few snp fingys in winders on the way. in the big ass-glow (my friend who christened it thus blew his brains out) city centre there was absolutely no sign of an election. didn't even see a transvestite. but it was raining.
Wearing my orange tinted sun glasses and seven years of spani Sh beer and wine, possibly coupled with too much sun my take on lib dem prospects are
Scotland hold 4/5 there are reasons but no time to post them We will lose Burnley Withington Bradford East May hold berwick but difficult We will also lose Cardiff Cental, BristolWest, Wells, Taunton, Somerton&Frome, the one in Norfolk, Brent Central, possibly Redcar There will be gains, Watford, OXWAB, and possibly two others so net 52/53 gbut that is too silly so I'll settle for 40
went running yesterday: nine miles. # electoral posters = # machine guns
on the bus to hel(l)ensburgh and back today: # snp placards > # scottish tory und unionist placards > the three lib dem diamonds on one gate such that you could only see them if you were heading in one direction > zero dirty labour placards (= # placards from the party i'll be voting for on thursday)
took the train to the big city. saw a few snp fingys in winders on the way. in the big ass-glow (my friend who christened it thus blew his brains out) city centre there was absolutely no sign of an election. didn't even see a transvestite. but it was raining.
Wearing my orange tinted sun glasses and seven years of spani Sh beer and wine, possibly coupled with too much sun my take on lib dem prospects are
Scotland hold 4/5 there are reasons but no time to post them We will lose Burnley Withington Bradford East May hold berwick but difficult We will also lose Cardiff Cental, BristolWest, Wells, Taunton, Somerton&Frome, the one in Norfolk, Brent Central, possibly Redcar There will be gains, Watford, OXWAB, and possibly two others so net 52/53 gbut that is too silly so I'll settle for 40
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
What is it with UKIP in Hampshire? Dysfunctional doesnt begin to cover it.
How can Labour think they are losing? How bad can their canvassing returns really be telling them they are doing given the rock solid TCTC (equaling a Labour government) of the polls. Silly Labour.
What will be interesting to see (though sadly I will not be around to see it, being at a count), is how disbelieving the pundits and pollsters may be of the exit polls. We have reason to doubt the exit polls more than usual this time apparently, but it'll be fun to see if most people are adamant they will be wrong (If they indicate the LDs holding 40 or something else ridiculous) and then they are almost dead on again.
Comments
I am, of course, much better looking.
I say it's 50-50 but only because a LordA poll had it very close, the Survation one had it on a huge double digit lead for UKIP.
Off the top of my head there was a lot of excitement from the Tories and early claims exit polls might be wrong and not hung parliament, due to showing so well in some early traditionally Labour seats that they had no chance of ever winnings, but then had lots of misses on marginals.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/05/mixed-fortunes-in-my-final-round-of-marginals/#more-11523
Before 1997 John Major of course won over 40% in 1992, the last Tory leader to do so
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3068494/The-abandoned-beauty-Italy-s-20-000-ghost-towns-Stunning-pictures-ruined-villages-left-crumble-eerie-splendour-emigration-natural-calamities-pirate-raids-sent-locals-packing.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
Trojan Horse scandal still ongoing according to headteacher:
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/may/03/birmingham-headteachers-say-subject-campaign-intimidation
"Birmingham headteachers say they are subject to campaign of intimidation
Schools in city caught in upheaval from the Trojan Horse investigation are targeted with dead animals in playgrounds and death threats on social media"
You forget that UKIP voters are made up of people who detest Cameroonianism.
And I will repeat it, no one believes Cameron's promises.
1. Clacton
2. Thanet South
3. Thurrock
4. Rochester & Strood
5. Boston & Skegness
6. Castle Point
7. Dudley North
8. Rother Valley
9. Walsall North
10.Great Grimsby
I am not saying that such a shock is in store this time - merely that if Labour is pessimistic, there probably is a reason for it. It may be postal votes, or canvass returns, or simply the fact that while they have expended enormous energy on their campaign, it has been ill-directed and badly thought out. But whatever it is, it's clearly there.
Clacton 100%
Thanet South 60%
Thurrock 80%
Rochester 40%
Boston 50%
Castle Point 40%
The problem is on other seats that haven't been polled and might have slipped under the radar, anyway that is the reason why the range of UKIP seats goes from 3 up to 5.
Logic and past experience, that the final result usually matches the polls before the short campaign starts, suggests OGHs views are right and the betting markets wrong (he has made a good deal of money from spotting when the market is wrong). Personal experience from the past few weeks leaves me firmly convinced Labour will do well in London, including picking up a seat not on most lists for Labour to win. However there is clearly nervousness about the prospects elsewhere, some of that is dictated by the groupthink OGH mentions but perhaps also generated because there are areas where Labour is simply not doing as well as it could be eg Medway Towns.
I think OGH is right but have a small nagging doubt he might not be, perhaps because of the experience from having "been there got the t shirt" in 92, when I was involved in a fantastically successful campaign (we won
POLL ALERT: 7PM - 2 days to go until polls open 30 mins until our next @DailyMirror poll @Jack_Blanchard_ reports "at the top of the hour".
Another Survation
kidnapshare a pint with Nick.Victoria pub, 85 Dovecote Lane, Beeston NG9 1JG from about 8 if anyone local is reading and at a loose end...
One organiser sent me a text that summed up the overall message: “Dude, where’s my swing?”
“The only way I can explain our promise,” said another, “is if there is barely any swing at all.”"
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/are-labour-losing
But I'm sure Tory HQ will do it's best to prevent Tory tactical voting in favour of UKIP, even if it means Labour win the seat.
I'm the pub for da Broxtowe meet.
I'm the chap in the red shoes.
LAB into 5.1 from 5.9
Con 1.2 out to 1.23
EICIPM market Mystic Dan does the trick as back to yesterdays levels after DH declares Dave the winner
Dave drifted like a barge in last 3 hours
Now click your heels together and say "there's nothing like swingback, there's nothing like swingback".
http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_by_time.php
@speedy,foxinsoxuk etc. Re Hull area - I think that we'll get surprises. Hull East - 3am! I wouldn't give a fig for the seat normally, but for 2-Jags old haunt to go purple would be quite a lot of fun.
'I'm the chap in the red shoes.'
Are we getting a photo of tonight's gathering including your shoes ?
Will Jennings @drjennings 2m2 minutes ago
Will Jennings retweeted Guardian news
Abolishing statutory maternity pay? Wow.
But just to see Cameron's face when he's booted out of No.10 tips the scales to UKIP with many of their voters.
I can understand people abandoning them as unsuitable for modernity, no roads and stuff. But how did a community even develop there without any visible agricultural prospects?
I always look out for Southam, he makes me laugh, especially on the night before the Scottish referendum , he was still giving his money away,
Is he supremely confident he's got Broxtowe in the bag, or does he know it's not going to happen?
;-)
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/plymouth-moor-view/
He thinks he is losing.
Today's Mirror/Survation poll:
LAB 34 (n/c)
CON 33 (n/c)
UKIP 16 (n/c)
LD 9 (n/c)
SNP 4 (+1)
GREEN 4 (+1)
OTHER 1 (-1)
No change.
LAB 34 (n/c)
CON 33 (n/c)
UKIP 16 (n/c)
LD 9 (n/c)
SNP 4 (+1)
GREEN 4 (+1)
OTHER 1 (-1)
Britain Elects @britainelects 23s24 seconds ago
Latest Survation poll:
LAB - 34% (-)
CON - 33% (+2)
UKIP - 16% (-1)
LDEM - 9% (+1)
GRN - 4% (-)
Perhaps an indication that some of the speculation in the past 48 hours is overdone is the fact that Yvette Cooper lead a bus full of folk around 6 constituencies today, Hove, the 2 Brighton seats, Croydon Central & Bermondsey. If there was real concern about places like Westminster North and Hampstead they would have gone there instead of longer shot marginals.
As to what counts as "winning", that is likely to be more than an abstract philosophical discussion on Friday morning
Have you heard the leaked Labour proposal to move the basic rate of tax to 25% ?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
Cooper: Hove, Kemptown, Pavilion, Croydon Central, Bermondsey
Balls: Cardiff Central, South Swindon
Smith: Cardiff Central, Cardiff North
Harriet: Northamton North
Tristam: Chester, Weaver Vale,
Flint: Pudsey
Benn: Bradford West
Twigg: Harrow East
Burnham: Redditch, Worcester, Dudley
Khan: Croydon Central, Battarsea
Dugher: Pudsey, Halifax
Ashworth: Loughborough, Northampton North
Coaker: Sherwood
Maria Eagle: Wirral West
St Helens North candidate: Chester
Jarvis: Bradford
Watson (with Coogan): Brentford, Stevenage, Ealing Central
Hodge: Thurrock
Berger: Finchley
Reed: Croydon Central
Gen Secretary: Swindon South
Jack McConnell: Edinburgh South,
Alastair Campbell: Burnley
McCluskey: Pudsey
Eizzard: Plymouth
went running yesterday: nine miles. # electoral posters = # machine guns
on the bus to hel(l)ensburgh and back today: # snp placards > # scottish tory und unionist placards > the three lib dem diamonds on one gate such that you could only see them if you were heading in one direction > zero dirty labour placards (= # placards from the party i'll be voting for on thursday)
took the train to the big city. saw a few snp fingys in winders on the way. in the big ass-glow (my friend who christened it thus blew his brains out) city centre there was absolutely no sign of an election. didn't even see a transvestite. but it was raining.
Scotland hold 4/5 there are reasons but no time to post them
We will lose
Burnley
Withington
Bradford East
May hold berwick but difficult
We will also lose
Cardiff Cental, BristolWest, Wells, Taunton, Somerton&Frome, the one in Norfolk, Brent Central, possibly Redcar
There will be gains, Watford, OXWAB, and possibly two others so net 52/53 gbut that is too silly so I'll settle for 40
If not, perhaps he should be. He seems to be their crack legion.
http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/12932095.UKIP_supporter__kicked_by_group_of_men__over_election_sign_outside_his_house/
What will be interesting to see (though sadly I will not be around to see it, being at a count), is how disbelieving the pundits and pollsters may be of the exit polls. We have reason to doubt the exit polls more than usual this time apparently, but it'll be fun to see if most people are adamant they will be wrong (If they indicate the LDs holding 40 or something else ridiculous) and then they are almost dead on again.