Based on the last price matched on Betfair's constituency markets, Labour have a >50% chance of winning 40 Conservative seats, 11 LD seats - and losing 39 to the SNP.
I think if this argument gets hold that if the Tories were the largest party , therefore, they had "won", then the best way for Labour to deal with it is let Cameron become the Prime Minister.
Then, keep on defeating him on the floor of the Commons time and time again. Proving without doubt , in a practical sense, that the Tories did not win the election.
Once Cameron resigns, and the Queens asks Miliband to form a government, this so called legitimacy will be conferred on Miliband, simply because the Queen had invited him.
Till he gets defeated on the floor of the Commons time and time again. Proving without doubt , in a practical sense, that the Tories did not win the election.
Leaving him with a choice of working with the SNP or accepting Labour being destroyed forever in the entire UK.
Amazing that we have three polls today, UKIP on 12, 13 & 16%, and people are saying 1-2 seats
How?
People that used to say 6-7% and no seats before Carswell defected, now think that vote share will double with, in effect, no seats gained
Wishful thinking
No right thinking person wants a racist party to get any seats.
Indeed, dress it up as they want, NF, BNP, EDL, UKIP, they are all parties that no-one should ever consider voting for.
Whats your predicted vote share for the EDL and NF?
It's all been swallowed up by their current UKIP brand.
Ooh nasty I am hurt!
You swine!
Pathetic, clueless creature
Not sure I would be concerned about your attempt at sarcasm. There is no doubt UKIP is the current political incarnation of NF/BNP/EDl. These racist parties evolve in that way until they get a fluffy outside and a television platform.
For some reason Nick Robinson decided UKIP should get a platform. It will probably haunt him for the rest of his days (which I should add I hope are many). But it will always be his fault to decide to promote a marginal, fringe, race-hate party like UKIP on the national television stage.
I did not realise Nick Robinson had such power. I am not familiar with the rise of UKIP, perhaps you could enlighten me how Nick is at fault.
How is that an interesting poll? It's pretty much in the same vein as all the other polls we've seen.
Last week it looked like the polls were swinging towards the Conservatives, now they seem to be swinging back to parity.
If this latest swing continues then Labour will be ahead on votes in the election.
That is a big if though.
It isn't widely remembered but in 1992 the polls had been swinging towards the Conservatives for the week prior to the election - from Labour having a solid lead (which is what got Kinnock so fired up in Sheffield) to parity. That swing continued in 1992 right up until the last minute - literally so the BBC exit poll was initially going to put Labour ahead but as the data came in on the Thursday evening the Conservatives took the lead.
That information on 1992 is really interesting, I didn't know that! I've always gotten the impression from that GE that Labour were consistently ahead in the polls, and that it was only the Conservatives' private polling that showed the 'shy tory' phenomenon. I'm going to wait until Wednesday, though before even thinking that Labour could be ahead on votes. I'm slightly pessimistic.
ComRes at 10pm and an 'interesting' BMG poll. Turning into a big polling night
The Tories need a lead with this one.
Just a lead will not do. The Tories need a big lead.
And even that doesn't help much, given this far out it's out of kilter with everything else, so it could be right in that scenario, but it won't help any sort of narrative and help bolster things.
Amazing that we have three polls today, UKIP on 12, 13 & 16%, and people are saying 1-2 seats
How?
People that used to say 6-7% and no seats before Carswell defected, now think that vote share will double with, in effect, no seats gained
Wishful thinking
No right thinking person wants a racist party to get any seats.
Indeed, dress it up as they want, NF, BNP, EDL, UKIP, they are all parties that no-one should ever consider voting for.
Whats your predicted vote share for the EDL and NF?
It's all been swallowed up by their current UKIP brand.
Ooh nasty I am hurt!
You swine!
Pathetic, clueless creature
Not sure I would be concerned about your attempt at sarcasm. There is no doubt UKIP is the current political incarnation of NF/BNP/EDl. These racist parties evolve in that way until they get a fluffy outside and a television platform.
For some reason Nick Robinson decided UKIP should get a platform. It will probably haunt him for the rest of his days (which I should add I hope are many). But it will always be his fault to decide to promote a marginal, fringe, race-hate party like UKIP on the national television stage.
You're just a clueless fool who makes predictions but is too gutless to back them up w cash.. everyone deserves to be listened to, and labelling people that disagree with you with derogatory names is what you probably think you disagree with from your high horse, but is what you do
Good evening Conservative and Labourites, are you all shitting yourselves?
It kind of reminds me of that little lull before a rugby game, when you're in the changing room and are just itching to go out and knock seven shades of sherbert out of the opposition.
Good evening Conservative and Labourites, are you all shitting yourselves?
Though most PB Hodges won't admit it. There are squirrel logs all over my back garden as Basil has heard there is a baddun for the Tories due imminently. Brace yourselves, it could be a Reverse Swingback.
"Labour still believes it could form a more durable coalition than the Tories even if it comes 20 or 30 seats behind David Cameron’s party and has identified “considerable overlap” in policy with the Lib Dems.
Senior Labour figures believe that it will become obvious quickly on Friday if Mr Cameron “doesn’t have the numbers” at which point Ed Miliband would urge him to quit.
If Mr Cameron clung on and put together a Queen’s Speech with no majority Labour MPs would have no qualms in joining forces with the SNP in voting it down, according to eight party candidates who have spoken to the FT.
Some senior party figures recognise that putting together a rival grouping could prove difficult if the public believe that the Tories “won” the election."
If Labour are 20-30 seats behind the Tories then it's pretty likely that Con > Lab + LD. The press would have a field day.
I always thought in a parliamentary democracy you had to win the votes in the HoC. If I accepted the argument that the Tories had somehow "won", even though they were nowhere near 323 MPs even with their allies, what is the opposition supposed to do, just meekly accept it ?
We both know that. However that is also completely irrelevant to the general public. They will see losers ganging up to try and lock the rightful winners out of power - and will give them a kicking in the ballot booth for it.
So, for example, the bedroom tax cannot be repealed because the Tories "had won" ?
Can the opposition introduce an amendment to change the 45% band to 50% ? Or, normal democracy just shuts down ?
Actually, very few of the "137" links on that page refer to members of the LibLabConspiracy being guilty (or even being accused) of paedophillia, racism, etc. etc. And many of the links refer to things that happened some time in the past. And a number of them are duplicates.
So, there are two stories about Oxford council having swept alleagations under the carpet. But while incompetence, lazyness and political correctness are serious issues, they are not the same as Oxford councillors being guilty of paedophilia, etc.
If your point was: there are scumbags in all political parties, then no shit sherlock.
No, my point is that these stories could and would have been spun into major news if they had happened to UKIP, adding further weight to the theory that UKIP is a shambolic outlet full of charlatans and bigots. But since they've happened to 'mainstream' parties, they're just aberrations. And I don't think you read the list properly, these aren't cases of laziness or political correctness, and many of them are convictions not allegations. Don't forget other parties allow former members of the BNP to be activists and even hold office.
Agree with what a few of the others have suggested upthread. OUT needs to coalesce to a looser arrangement such as the EEA/EFTA to succeed because it won't scare the horses amongst business/the public and is an easier sell that would garner more crossparty support. And Farage should definitely NOT be near the top table for OUT. He'd scare off as many as he converted. It needs people from UKIP, the Tories and Labour who are not going to be drawn into getting portrayed as swivel eyed headbangers. So that'd rule out much of Cameron's awkward squad as well.
Who knows, maybe the other EU leaders will suggest it as a compromise if they don't want to make changes themselves when Cameron comes knocking.
The EEA/EFTA is 100% Schengen compliant. Only being in the EU allows the UK certain Schengen opt outs. As an EEA/EFTA member, the UK would be bound by Schengen as every single EEA/EFTA member is.
"Labour still believes it could form a more durable coalition than the Tories even if it comes 20 or 30 seats behind David Cameron’s party and has identified “considerable overlap” in policy with the Lib Dems.
Senior Labour figures believe that it will become obvious quickly on Friday if Mr Cameron “doesn’t have the numbers” at which point Ed Miliband would urge him to quit.
If Mr Cameron clung on and put together a Queen’s Speech with no majority Labour MPs would have no qualms in joining forces with the SNP in voting it down, according to eight party candidates who have spoken to the FT.
Some senior party figures recognise that putting together a rival grouping could prove difficult if the public believe that the Tories “won” the election."
If Labour are 20-30 seats behind the Tories then it's pretty likely that Con > Lab + LD. The press would have a field day.
I always thought in a parliamentary democracy you had to win the votes in the HoC. If I accepted the argument that the Tories had somehow "won", even though they were nowhere near 323 MPs even with their allies, what is the opposition supposed to do, just meekly accept it ?
You should have realised by now that some people only want to play the game if they're allowed to win.
Oh, like the playground situation. "It's my bat, so if I am out, I still get to bat - otherwise I am going home"
Wearing my orange tinted sun glasses and seven years of spani Sh beer and wine, possibly coupled with too much sun my take on lib dem prospects are
Scotland hold 4/5 there are reasons but no time to post them We will lose Burnley Withington Bradford East May hold berwick but difficult We will also lose Cardiff Cental, BristolWest, Wells, Taunton, Somerton&Frome, the one in Norfolk, Brent Central, possibly Redcar There will be gains, Watford, OXWAB, and possibly two others so net 52/53 gbut that is too silly so I'll settle for 40
You do realise that because of boundary changes between 05 and 10 OXWAB will almost certainly remain a Tory stronghold now, don't you? Add in registration changes and I think Con maj of 6000. Some of my favourite watering holes in that constituency; it couldn't be more Tory in a university town.
What were the changes?
Any recommendations on watering holes?
Have to agree on OxWAb staying blue, although last time the Tory Nicola Blackwood ousted Evan Harris by just 176 votes, so 6,000 majority is pretty fanciful. The LibDems have a good team and candidate on the ground here in Layla Moran. It's been a bit strange here in Abingdon, because aside from both Clegg and Cameron arriving at the start of the campaign, and a so-called morale-boosting visit by Boris Johnson at the weekend, it's all been a bit quiet.
The boundary changes that happened before 2010 took Carfax (including approx 8,000 students) off into 'Oxford East' and brought in Yarnton (formerly DC's Witney constituency) and Appleton (formerly part of Ed Vaizey's patch).
Despite what you might think, Harris was quite a popular local MP, and the 2010 campaign was quite bruising (a shady US right-wing Christian outfit sponsored anti LibDem material and an activist actually stood against him, protesting about him as 'Dr Death' for his stand on abortion and euthanasia). So I think it will be close again, but probably around 500-600 votes.
That's just my feel on the ground here. Oh, and try the real-ale troika of Crown and Thistle, Hags Head on the Thames and 'Kings Head and Bell' here in Abingdon for decent beer ;-)
I'm now doubting myself about the watering holes, but based on signs I saw a fortnight ago: Bookbinders in Jericho, Rose and Crown on North Parade and The Gardener's Arms between the two...
I did not realise Nick Robinson had such power. I am not familiar with the rise of UKIP, perhaps you could enlighten me how Nick is at fault.
I'm fairly sure it was The Spectator I read it on. Maybe it was elsewhere but I've seen multiple sources for the claim. It may well be bullshit but as Political Editor, Robinson does hold some weight at the BBC.
"Labour still believes it could form a more durable coalition than the Tories even if it comes 20 or 30 seats behind David Cameron’s party and has identified “considerable overlap” in policy with the Lib Dems.
Senior Labour figures believe that it will become obvious quickly on Friday if Mr Cameron “doesn’t have the numbers” at which point Ed Miliband would urge him to quit.
If Mr Cameron clung on and put together a Queen’s Speech with no majority Labour MPs would have no qualms in joining forces with the SNP in voting it down, according to eight party candidates who have spoken to the FT.
Some senior party figures recognise that putting together a rival grouping could prove difficult if the public believe that the Tories “won” the election."
If Labour are 20-30 seats behind the Tories then it's pretty likely that Con > Lab + LD. The press would have a field day.
I always thought in a parliamentary democracy you had to win the votes in the HoC. If I accepted the argument that the Tories had somehow "won", even though they were nowhere near 323 MPs even with their allies, what is the opposition supposed to do, just meekly accept it ?
We both know that. However that is also completely irrelevant to the general public. They will see losers ganging up to try and lock the rightful winners out of power - and will give them a kicking in the ballot booth for it.
So, for example, the bedroom tax cannot be repealed because the Tories "had won" ?
Can the opposition introduce an amendment to change the 45% band to 50% ? Or, normal democracy just shuts down ?
You really don't get it do you? The British people will see that 'losers' have combined to steal No.10 from the Conservatives. They will then give said losers a hefty kick in the ballot box. The technicalities won't be what the electorate are interested in. How Labour and the LDs want to act is their prerogative.
You're just a clueless fool who makes predictions but is too gutless to back them up w cash.. everyone deserves to be listened to, and labelling people that disagree with you with derogatory names is what you probably think you disagree with from your high horse, but is what you do
I do too, but don't pretend not to
Not sure I can "back up with cash" the truth that UKIP is a racist party. It will undoubtedly be denied as the NF and the BNP and the EDL always denied being racist.
"Labour still believes it could form a more durable coalition than the Tories even if it comes 20 or 30 seats behind David Cameron’s party and has identified “considerable overlap” in policy with the Lib Dems.
Senior Labour figures believe that it will become obvious quickly on Friday if Mr Cameron “doesn’t have the numbers” at which point Ed Miliband would urge him to quit.
If Mr Cameron clung on and put together a Queen’s Speech with no majority Labour MPs would have no qualms in joining forces with the SNP in voting it down, according to eight party candidates who have spoken to the FT.
Some senior party figures recognise that putting together a rival grouping could prove difficult if the public believe that the Tories “won” the election."
If Labour are 20-30 seats behind the Tories then it's pretty likely that Con > Lab + LD. The press would have a field day.
I always thought in a parliamentary democracy you had to win the votes in the HoC. If I accepted the argument that the Tories had somehow "won", even though they were nowhere near 323 MPs even with their allies, what is the opposition supposed to do, just meekly accept it ?
We both know that. However that is also completely irrelevant to the general public. They will see losers ganging up to try and lock the rightful winners out of power - and will give them a kicking in the ballot booth for it.
So, for example, the bedroom tax cannot be repealed because the Tories "had won" ?
Can the opposition introduce an amendment to change the 45% band to 50% ? Or, normal democracy just shuts down ?
You really don't get it do you? The British people will see that 'losers' have combined to steal No.10 from the Conservatives. They will then give said losers a hefty kick in the ballot box. The technicalities won't be what the electorate are interested in. How Labour and the LDs want to act is their prerogative.
I don't think the British people are that stupid. They do understand simple arithmetic.
How is that an interesting poll? It's pretty much in the same vein as all the other polls we've seen.
Last week it looked like the polls were swinging towards the Conservatives, now they seem to be swinging back to parity.
If this latest swing continues then Labour will be ahead on votes in the election.
That is a big if though.
It isn't widely remembered but in 1992 the polls had been swinging towards the Conservatives for the week prior to the election - from Labour having a solid lead (which is what got Kinnock so fired up in Sheffield) to parity. That swing continued in 1992 right up until the last minute - literally so the BBC exit poll was initially going to put Labour ahead but as the data came in on the Thursday evening the Conservatives took the lead.
That information on 1992 is really interesting, I didn't know that! I've always gotten the impression from that GE that Labour were consistently ahead in the polls, and that it was only the Conservatives' private polling that showed the 'shy tory' phenomenon. I'm going to wait until Wednesday, though before even thinking that Labour could be ahead on votes. I'm slightly pessimistic.
In 1992 for most of the campaign the polls were at parity or with a slight Labour lead.
Then on day of the Sheffield rally there were three polls which showed significant Labour leads - 4%, 5% and 7% of something similar - and the Sheffield rally turned into a premature victory campaign.
In the following week those Labour leads melted away and by election day the latest poll IIRC showed a small Conservative lead.
The trend was definately with the Conservatives in 1992 from the last weekend onwards.
I agree with the yougov thing. Why is Keller so adamant the Tories will win most seats when the polls as a whole tell us otherwise? Or is this just an 'unpollable' election. Probably just best waiting for the actual result now, as this election is just bizarre.
If you take the raw yougov number, and assume UNS on E&W, labour should come out ahead. Ashcroft polls suggest UNS is not likely, and may (by not naming candidates) masking an incumbancy effect.
That said, the evidence suggests level pegging nationally, and tories very slightly ahead in E&W. This would suggest (not accounting for incumbancy effect) that labour and the tories will be very close in total seats.
Yet Tories are 1.23 most seats
Lab 5.2
Bizarre, I think the Lab being largest party might be good value.
That said I really believe in forecast modelling. Electionforecast is predicting 267-281 margin on a simulated 1.9% tory lead and the LDs close to 12%, and UKIP on 11%. Recent polls show the LDs doing worse, and UKIP doing a lot better than their model suggests.
In that case you may be interested to learn that as of today Prof. Stephen Fisher's Elections, etc., who let's be honest OGH has largely chosen to ignore from the outset, has the Tories on 289 seats, comfortably ahead of Labour on 257 seats. You pays yer money .....
The two forecasts are the best ones available. I've not had time to read in detail Fisher's methodology in detail. But the Bayesian approach on electionforecast.co.uk seemed reasonable.
We need to REALLY look at it the level of uncertainty involved (e.g. the 95% Confidence interval). This basically rules out overall majorities on electoralforecast.co.uk (in line with implied odds on betting markets), but if you believe in Prof Fishers forecast, then betting markets implied probabilities are much lower than forecast for con and lab overall majority. Good value for a risky bet if you believe in Fisher.
Wearing my orange tinted sun glasses and seven years of spani Sh beer and wine, possibly coupled with too much sun my take on lib dem prospects are
Scotland hold 4/5 there are reasons but no time to post them We will lose Burnley Withington Bradford East May hold berwick but difficult We will also lose Cardiff Cental, BristolWest, Wells, Taunton, Somerton&Frome, the one in Norfolk, Brent Central, possibly Redcar There will be gains, Watford, OXWAB, and possibly two others so net 52/53 gbut that is too silly so I'll settle for 40
You do realise that because of boundary changes between 05 and 10 OXWAB will almost certainly remain a Tory stronghold now, don't you? Add in registration changes and I think Con maj of 6000. Some of my favourite watering holes in that constituency; it couldn't be more Tory in a university town.
What were the changes?
Any recommendations on watering holes?
Have to agree on OxWAb staying blue, although last time the Tory Nicola Blackwood ousted Evan Harris by just 176 votes, so 6,000 majority is pretty fanciful. The LibDems have a good team and candidate on the ground here in Layla Moran. It's been a bit strange here in Abingdon, because aside from both Clegg and Cameron arriving at the start of the campaign, and a so-called morale-boosting visit by Boris Johnson at the weekend, it's all been a bit quiet.
The boundary changes that happened before 2010 took Carfax (including approx 8,000 students) off into 'Oxford East' and brought in Yarnton (formerly DC's Witney constituency) and Appleton (formerly part of Ed Vaizey's patch).
Despite what you might think, Harris was quite a popular local MP, and the 2010 campaign was quite bruising (a shady US right-wing Christian outfit sponsored anti LibDem material and an activist actually stood against him, protesting about him as 'Dr Death' for his stand on abortion and euthanasia). So I think it will be close again, but probably around 500-600 votes.
That's just my feel on the ground here. Oh, and try the real-ale troika of Crown and Thistle, Hags Head on the Thames and 'Kings Head and Bell' here in Abingdon for decent beer ;-)
I'm now doubting myself about the watering holes, but based on signs I saw a fortnight ago: Bookbinders in Jericho, Rose and Crown on North Parade and The Gardener's Arms between the two...
Oh, and Zheng's in Walton St was the site of the best meal I've ever had in Oxford. Incredible. I understand Cor 's stonking review.
Best wine was still at my old college, though. Can't decide if it was the 08 Chateauneuf de Pape at my last gaudy or the 06 Burgundy at my post finals supper.
Amazing that we have three polls today, UKIP on 12, 13 & 16%, and people are saying 1-2 seats
How?
People that used to say 6-7% and no seats before Carswell defected, now think that vote share will double with, in effect, no seats gained
Wishful thinking
No right thinking person wants a racist party to get any seats.
Indeed, dress it up as they want, NF, BNP, EDL, UKIP, they are all parties that no-one should ever consider voting for.
Whats your predicted vote share for the EDL and NF?
It's all been swallowed up by their current UKIP brand.
Ooh nasty I am hurt!
You swine!
Pathetic, clueless creature
Not sure I would be concerned about your attempt at sarcasm. There is no doubt UKIP is the current political incarnation of NF/BNP/EDL. These racist parties evolve in that way until they get a fluffy outside and a television platform.
For some reason Nick Robinson decided UKIP should get a platform. It will probably haunt him for the rest of his days (which I should add I hope are many). But it will always be his fault to decide to promote a marginal, fringe, race-hate party like UKIP on the national television stage.
Just like your party 'evolved' from being Nazi sympathisers.
Such pathetic moral cowardice and hypocrisy from you to complain about false flag altercations and establishment smears when they're used against your own rather chauvinistic cause but to buy into them wholly when they're being used against a party you dislike.
You're just a clueless fool who makes predictions but is too gutless to back them up w cash.. everyone deserves to be listened to, and labelling people that disagree with you with derogatory names is what you probably think you disagree with from your high horse, but is what you do
I do too, but don't pretend not to
Not sure I can "back up with cash" the truth that UKIP is a racist party. It will undoubtedly be denied as the NF and the BNP and the EDL always denied being racist.
I am sure you cant, you cant do it with any other nonsense trolling post you make
Good evening Conservative and Labourites, are you all shitting yourselves?
It kind of reminds me of that little lull before a rugby game, when you're in the changing room and are just itching to go out and knock seven shades of sherbert out of the opposition.
Except that, whichever rugby team wins this competition, they will then have to face the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse Polo Team, in full war cry, and armed with laser-mallets - i.e. the "victorious" Cons will be forced into a hideous, party-splitting EU referendum, and Labour, if they "win", will be be pegged* every day by Nicola Sturgeon.
*Do Your Own Googling
It's likely to be the kind of Rugby match played in the rain and mud with the ball hidden inside endless indeterminate rucks and mauls. And if it does ever come loose from the back of the scrum expect a hospital pass.
A very handy lead for the Blue team. Not expecting anything similar from YouGov in half an hour, as their twitter feed is very quiet. A 1% Labour lead would make things interesting.
How is that an interesting poll? It's pretty much in the same vein as all the other polls we've seen.
Last week it looked like the polls were swinging towards the Conservatives, now they seem to be swinging back to parity.
If this latest swing continues then Labour will be ahead on votes in the election.
That is a big if though.
It isn't widely remembered but in 1992 the polls had been swinging towards the Conservatives for the week prior to the election - from Labour having a solid lead (which is what got Kinnock so fired up in Sheffield) to parity. That swing continued in 1992 right up until the last minute - literally so the BBC exit poll was initially going to put Labour ahead but as the data came in on the Thursday evening the Conservatives took the lead.
That information on 1992 is really interesting, I didn't know that! I've always gotten the impression from that GE that Labour were consistently ahead in the polls, and that it was only the Conservatives' private polling that showed the 'shy tory' phenomenon. I'm going to wait until Wednesday, though before even thinking that Labour could be ahead on votes. I'm slightly pessimistic.
In 1992 for most of the campaign the polls were at parity or with a slight Labour lead.
Then on day of the Sheffield rally there were three polls which showed significant Labour leads - 4%, 5% and 7% of something similar - and the Sheffield rally turned into a premature victory campaign.
In the following week those Labour leads melted away and by election day the latest poll IIRC showed a small Conservative lead.
The trend was definately with the Conservatives in 1992 from the last weekend onwards.
So the polls weren't completely wrong in 92' after all. Should be interesting to see how reliable the polls are this election, in light of that.
Although it's 23 years ago, "Sheffield" remains the elephant in the room, everyone of a certain age remembers it. We keep being told that polling methodologies are much improved since then ..... yea right. That must be why they're still playing about with them every other week.
Agree with what a few of the others have suggested upthread. OUT needs to coalesce to a looser arrangement such as the EEA/EFTA to succeed because it won't scare the horses amongst business/the public and is an easier sell that would garner more crossparty support. And Farage should definitely NOT be near the top table for OUT. He'd scare off as many as he converted. It needs people from UKIP, the Tories and Labour who are not going to be drawn into getting portrayed as swivel eyed headbangers. So that'd rule out much of Cameron's awkward squad as well.
Who knows, maybe the other EU leaders will suggest it as a compromise if they don't want to make changes themselves when Cameron comes knocking.
The EEA/EFTA is 100% Schengen compliant. Only being in the EU allows the UK certain Schengen opt outs. As an EEA/EFTA member, the UK would be bound by Schengen as every single EEA/EFTA member is.
Wrong (as you are on every other point you post on here)
Comments
= 270 seats.
Leaving him with a choice of working with the SNP or accepting Labour being destroyed forever in the entire UK.
I do too, but don't pretend not to
Can the opposition introduce an amendment to change the 45% band to 50% ? Or, normal democracy just shuts down ?
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B39PL1hZ6W_ROTVrSU1Bel9kc0U/view?pli=1
ComRes for @DailyMailUK / @itvnews: 3pt Tory lead C 35(+2) L 32(-1) LD 9(+1) UKIP 14(+1) Grn 4(-3) http://ow.ly/i/aFTwK
Much needed boost for Tories
All to play for
Then on day of the Sheffield rally there were three polls which showed significant Labour leads - 4%, 5% and 7% of something similar - and the Sheffield rally turned into a premature victory campaign.
In the following week those Labour leads melted away and by election day the latest poll IIRC showed a small Conservative lead.
The trend was definately with the Conservatives in 1992 from the last weekend onwards.
We need to REALLY look at it the level of uncertainty involved (e.g. the 95% Confidence interval). This basically rules out overall majorities on electoralforecast.co.uk (in line with implied odds on betting markets), but if you believe in Prof Fishers forecast, then betting markets implied probabilities are much lower than forecast for con and lab overall majority. Good value for a risky bet if you believe in Fisher.
Best wine was still at my old college, though. Can't decide if it was the 08 Chateauneuf de Pape at my last gaudy or the 06 Burgundy at my post finals supper.
Such pathetic moral cowardice and hypocrisy from you to complain about false flag altercations and establishment smears when they're used against your own rather chauvinistic cause but to buy into them wholly when they're being used against a party you dislike.
Good poll for the Tories, although I'd say it's still about neck-neck.
Two polls move in Tory favour
Two polls move in Labour favour
One poll remains the same
YouGov to remain the same it is then!
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/595696164130926593
new thread