SeanT The key factor is the UKIP vote, if that drifts back to around 10% the Tories will be on about 37% and certainly largest party
BUT THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT THIS IS HAPPENING.
With just 40 hours to go. I am mystified by the mass hallucination that has Labour most seats at 4/1
PB Tories are like Scottish Unionists.
They think they can recover "converts". Kippers are converts, they believe that the "other" is hurting them and they won't "return" because it is now against their fundamental beliefs.
Search is on going for Crossover January, Pulling away February and their mate Majority Winning Leads March. Rumours of them being murdered by the Labour Valentines Day Massacre or the Back after Easter Poll Leads have been dismissed. If any of the PB Hodges do find them can they send them to Rod Crosby as he has a Swingback that has also been missing for months.
2% up from the most recent Survation poll, from the Mail on Sunday. 33% from Survation is a good score for the Tories, because of the big score the company gives to UKIP.
The state of the polls is therefore:-
Panelbase, Lab+2%, Survation Lab +1%, Populus, Yougov, Com Res tied, TNS, Opinium, Con +1%, Ashcroft Con 2%, ICM, BGM Con +3%, Ipsos MORI, Con +5%,
Wearing my orange tinted sun glasses and seven years of spani Sh beer and wine, possibly coupled with too much sun my take on lib dem prospects are
Scotland hold 4/5 there are reasons but no time to post them We will lose Burnley Withington Bradford East May hold berwick but difficult We will also lose Cardiff Cental, BristolWest, Wells, Taunton, Somerton&Frome, the one in Norfolk, Brent Central, possibly Redcar There will be gains, Watford, OXWAB, and possibly two others so net 52/53 gbut that is too silly so I'll settle for 40
How can Labour think they are losing? How bad can their canvassing returns really be telling them they are doing given the rock solid TCTC (equaling a Labour government) of the polls. Silly Labour.
What will be interesting to see (though sadly I will not be around to see it, being at a count), is how disbelieving the pundits and pollsters may be of the exit polls. We have reason to doubt the exit polls more than usual this time apparently, but it'll be fun to see if most people are adamant they will be wrong (If they indicate the LDs holding 40 or something else ridiculous) and then they are almost dead on again.
I think it's a deliberate misdirection by Labour to make us think it is closer than it really is, and embolden the troops for the final push.
That said, there really doesn't seem to be any Tory panic or breaking ranks that I've been expecting as long as the polls failed to shift.
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
SeanT UKIP is lower than its peak, and the drift of voters from rightwing parties to Likud in Israel only happened on election day
What's the equivalent to stirring up fear over those dirty Arabs voting though? Cameron to tweet about "women being bused to polling stations in huge numbers" to scare UKIP supporters back into the fold?
2% up from the most recent Survation poll, from the Mail on Sunday. 33% from Survation is a good score for the Tories, because of the big score the company gives to UKIP.
The state of the polls is therefore:-
Panelbase, Lab+2%, Survation Lab +1%, Populus, Yougov, Com Res tied, TNS, Opinium, Con +1%, Ashcroft Con 2%, ICM, BGM Con +3%, Ipsos MORI, Con +5%,
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
Are you still dithering about whether to vote for UKIP?
2% up from the most recent Survation poll, from the Mail on Sunday. 33% from Survation is a good score for the Tories, because of the big score the company gives to UKIP.
The state of the polls is therefore:-
Panelbase, Lab+2%, Survation Lab +1%, Populus, Yougov, Com Res tied, TNS, Opinium, Con +1%, Ashcroft Con 2%, ICM, BGM Con +3%, Ipsos MORI, Con +5%,
Search is on going for Crossover January, Pulling away February and their mate Majority Winning Leads March. Rumours of them being murdered by the Labour Valentines Day Massacre or the Back after Easter Poll Leads have been dismissed. If any of the PB Hodges do find them can they send them to Rod Crosby as he has a Swingback that has also been missing for months.
You predicted consistent Labour leads right up until the GE. How did that work out for you?
Logically all the parties ought to fire their hired-in election strategists because none of them has achieved anything. The polls are exactly where they were 6 weeks ago.
The trouble with tactical voting is that it completely masks what people actually want. I recall in 1983 hearing from gloomy defeated lefties at university that Fatcha had no mandate to govern because 56% of the electorate had "voted against her". I pointed out that if you're going to interpret non-support in that way then 72% had "voted against" Labour so she still had every right to govern.
When you've got people voting UKIP to prevent a referendum by getting Labour in, and others voting SNP so Labour will win and screw the English, and voting Conservative so UKIP will lose, the actual vote percentages become literally almost completely meaningless. We know 28% of Labouroids will vote for a donkey in a red rosette - which is pretty much what Miliband is - but WTF anyone else's poll share means, I can't really fathom.
2% up from the most recent Survation poll, from the Mail on Sunday. 33% from Survation is a good score for the Tories, because of the big score the company gives to UKIP.
The state of the polls is therefore:-
Panelbase, Lab+2%, Survation Lab +1%, Populus, Yougov, Com Res tied, TNS, Opinium, Con +1%, Ashcroft Con 2%, ICM, BGM Con +3%, Ipsos MORI, Con +5%,
2% up from the most recent Survation poll, from the Mail on Sunday. 33% from Survation is a good score for the Tories, because of the big score the company gives to UKIP.
The state of the polls is therefore:-
Panelbase, Lab+2%, Survation Lab +1%, Populus, Yougov, Com Res tied, TNS, Opinium, Con +1%, Ashcroft Con 2%, ICM, BGM Con +3%, Ipsos MORI, Con +5%,
His awful no-deal Coalition with the chortling Nats will last til next Holyrood elex, then collapse into the smoking timbers of its own burning contradictions. Labour will be charred in the disaster.
His awful no-deal Coalition with the chortling Nats will last til next Holyrood elex, then collapse into the smoking timbers of its own burning contradictions. Labour will be charred in the disaster.
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
Are you still dithering about whether to vote for UKIP?
Certainly not. That video shows that man to be deeply unpleasant. I have a wife who originates from Eastern Europe.
People like this are an absolute disgrace. They could set back the cause of UK independence from the EU for decades.
Speedy When they hover over their ballot papers and the prospect of a Miliband premiership under the thumb of Salmond and no EU referendum hovers into view I would not be surprised if a few stick with the blue team in the end
I think the prospect of a Cameron premiership under the thumb of Clegg and no EU referendum is equally appalling. But just to see Cameron's face when he's booted out of No.10 tips the scales to UKIP with many of their voters.
I am really excited to see Dave booted out of Downing Street and replaced as leader. Nearly as excited as I am at the prospect of a Labour coalition government.
Hopefully the EdStone is given a prominent location for the next 5 years.
His awful no-deal Coalition with the chortling Nats will last til next Holyrood elex, then collapse into the smoking timbers of its own burning contradictions. Labour will be charred in the disaster.
Without doubt - wonder why labour can't see the red flashing lights.
Search is on going for Crossover January, Pulling away February and their mate Majority Winning Leads March. Rumours of them being murdered by the Labour Valentines Day Massacre or the Back after Easter Poll Leads have been dismissed. If any of the PB Hodges do find them can they send them to Rod Crosby as he has a Swingback that has also been missing for months.
You predicted consistent Labour leads right up until the GE. How did that work out for you?
We've had crossover for the past fortnight. Just not good enough crossover for the Conservatives.
I was queueing to have my car washed at the Kosovan car wash in North Finchley on Saturday. Standing next to it was a UKIP canvasser trying to hand out anti-immigration leaflets to passers by.
Smart move.
Wonder if he went across to them and told them he wanted them all sent back?
SeanT UKIP is lower than its peak, and the drift of voters from rightwing parties to Likud in Israel only happened on election day
What's the equivalent to stirring up fear over those dirty Arabs voting though? Cameron to tweet about "women being bused to polling stations in huge numbers" to scare UKIP supporters back into the fold?
Women vote Conservative more strongly than men, so I don't think that one would work.
His awful no-deal Coalition with the chortling Nats will last til next Holyrood elex, then collapse into the smoking timbers of its own burning contradictions. Labour will be charred in the disaster.
David Tennant SLAB advert is risible. All about the past, past, past.
Interestingly BBC Scotland are not scheduling it separately. It is officially part of the Reporting Scotland news bulletin. BBC Scotland also trying to Unionise the language referring to Gordonstoun as a "public" school when it's a private school.
His awful no-deal Coalition with the chortling Nats will last til next Holyrood elex, then collapse into the smoking timbers of its own burning contradictions. Labour will be charred in the disaster.
It seems a bit wrong though - somehow the future is supposed to contain sunlight, butterflys, and hills, and well frankly not Ed Milliband.
SeanT UKIP is lower than its peak, and the drift of voters from rightwing parties to Likud in Israel only happened on election day
What's the equivalent to stirring up fear over those dirty Arabs voting though? Cameron to tweet about "women being bused to polling stations in huge numbers" to scare UKIP supporters back into the fold?
Women vote Conservative more strongly than men, so I don't think that one would work.
It's UKIP voters Cameron would be seeking to worry in this situation. But you're right - the obvious equivalent is not to tweet about women voting in large numbers but about students.
Coatbridge MP Tom Clarke winning his Monklands West seat in 1992 when he didn't have to worry about losing one of the safest Labour seats in Scotland to the SNP:
Speedy When they hover over their ballot papers and the prospect of a Miliband premiership under the thumb of Salmond and no EU referendum hovers into view I would not be surprised if a few stick with the blue team in the end
I think the prospect of a Cameron premiership under the thumb of Clegg and no EU referendum is equally appalling. But just to see Cameron's face when he's booted out of No.10 tips the scales to UKIP with many of their voters.
I am really excited to see Dave booted out of Downing Street and replaced as leader. Nearly as excited as I am at the prospect of a Labour coalition government.
Hopefully the EdStone is given a prominent location for the next 5 years.
The #EdStone is chuckies. It will never be seen again.
His awful no-deal Coalition with the chortling Nats will last til next Holyrood elex, then collapse into the smoking timbers of its own burning contradictions. Labour will be charred in the disaster.
Without doubt - wonder why labour can't see the red flashing lights.
Maybe because there isn't a red flashing light, but a yellow one.
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
Are you still dithering about whether to vote for UKIP?
Certainly not. That video shows that man to be deeply unpleasant. I have a wife who originates from Eastern Europe.
People like this are an absolute disgrace. They could set back the cause of UK independence from the EU for decades.
A point obvious to everyone but themselves. They really do imagine everyone is as deranged as they are.
The buzz going around those in the supposed 'know', is that the GE will see a substantially increase in voting numbers. If true, and not some random remark, then my hopes of a remarkable change may be realised.
SeanT UKIP is lower than its peak, and the drift of voters from rightwing parties to Likud in Israel only happened on election day
What's the equivalent to stirring up fear over those dirty Arabs voting though? Cameron to tweet about "women being bused to polling stations in huge numbers" to scare UKIP supporters back into the fold?
Women vote Conservative more strongly than men, so I don't think that one would work.
Describing yourself as "The party of the working man" for 100 years tends to be bad when attitudes change even when you drop the slogan, the memory persists.
I was queueing to have my car washed at the Kosovan car wash in North Finchley on Saturday. Standing next to it was a UKIP canvasser trying to hand out anti-immigration leaflets to passers by.
Smart move.
Wonder if he went across to them and told them he wanted them all sent back?
Like so many of your anecdotes, that somehow doesn't have the ring of truth.
SeanT UKIP is lower than its peak, and the drift of voters from rightwing parties to Likud in Israel only happened on election day
What's the equivalent to stirring up fear over those dirty Arabs voting though? Cameron to tweet about "women being bused to polling stations in huge numbers" to scare UKIP supporters back into the fold?
Women vote Conservative more strongly than men, so I don't think that one would work.
Not these days they don't. Crossover happened in 2005.
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
Are you still dithering about whether to vote for UKIP?
Certainly not. That video shows that man to be deeply unpleasant. I have a wife who originates from Eastern Europe.
People like this are an absolute disgrace. They could set back the cause of UK independence from the EU for decades.
This is why I think UKIP are the worst thing to happen to the Eurosceptic movement/Better off out.
Being in favour of that is now associated with opposition to gay marriage, dislike of foreigners/non whites/non Brits.
What UKIP is needs is the likes of Richard Tyndall/Sean Fear front and centre otherwise David Cameron is going to be associated with two unique contributions to the English Language, one about Twitter and one about the fruitcakes.
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
You told me at Dirty Dicks you were definitely voting UKIP
Will that make you and several thousand others accessories!!
SeanT Neil The principle is the same, voters drifting from rightwing minor parties to the main centre right party at the last moment, in Israel it was over fear of becoming run by Arabs, here it would be because of fear of being run by Scots
Dair No, all the polls show the most important issues for UKIP voters are the EU and immigration (which is linked to the EU anyway because of free movement)
EICIPM market Mystic Dan does the trick as back to yesterdays levels after DH declares Dave the winner
Dave drifted like a barge in last 3 hours
It is amazing that Labour most seats is on 5.1, with only one poll out of nine showing Tory most seats.
I'm actually tempted to make a political bet (for the first time ever, outwith pb wagers). The groupthink Mike identifies is ridic.
And I reckon Casino nails the reason for Labour anxiety and depression, it's because they know that even if they win they will be forced into a horrible alliance with the SNP, a marriage made in Hades which could damage the party very badly, long term.
So I reckon half of them subconsciously don't want to win (that is, if they can't get an outright maj, which they can't) and this negativity is feeding through into overdone pessimism.
It's also part of the job description. A lot better to be fretting about the worst case scenarios than thinking they're in the bag. It's also inevitable with the amount of data now that it creates that type of anxiety. If you've invested time and hope in Labour coming out with something which can be considered a win (a dead heat with the Tories given the rest of the arithmetic) then it makes sense that you'd be filled with dread over any data which gave the impression of losing. As it's clear no one's going to win outright, the focus is all on what could go wrong. Hence on the other side the nonsense that started happening when the Tories bodged the start of the campaign and Ed turned out to be able to stand up unaided.
Wearing my orange tinted sun glasses and seven years of spani Sh beer and wine, possibly coupled with too much sun my take on lib dem prospects are
Scotland hold 4/5 there are reasons but no time to post them We will lose Burnley Withington Bradford East May hold berwick but difficult We will also lose Cardiff Cental, BristolWest, Wells, Taunton, Somerton&Frome, the one in Norfolk, Brent Central, possibly Redcar There will be gains, Watford, OXWAB, and possibly two others so net 52/53 gbut that is too silly so I'll settle for 40
The LibDems will not make any gains, I'm afraid, unless Dorothy pulls off something truly incredible. You'll be 5,000 behind in Oxwab.
Redcar is a dead cert loss, too I'm afraid. You've forgotten Norwich South.
LibDems 4-1 on 11-20 seats remains the greatest value bet of the election (although as the LibDems seem to be heading from 9% to 11% in the polls, I may be a loser on this one...)
His awful no-deal Coalition with the chortling Nats will last til next Holyrood elex, then collapse into the smoking timbers of its own burning contradictions. Labour will be charred in the disaster.
Without doubt - wonder why labour can't see the red flashing lights.
Maybe because there isn't a red flashing light, but a yellow one.
Here in Brigg & Goole local Conservative activists have decamped to Pudsey to help - they must be confident here. Labour need a 5.9% swing in Brigg & Goole.
I'm a Labour supporter and wouldn't be surprised if Andrew Percy increased his majority
David Tennant SLAB advert is risible. All about the past, past, past.
Interestingly BBC Scotland are not scheduling it separately. It is officially part of the Reporting Scotland news bulletin. BBC Scotland also trying to Unionise the language referring to Gordonstoun as a "public" school when it's a private school.
Ach, Dair, haud yer wheesht. It fair gars the southron loons on PB grue when we aise the lied o our forefaithers ...
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
Are you still dithering about whether to vote for UKIP?
Certainly not. That video shows that man to be deeply unpleasant. I have a wife who originates from Eastern Europe.
People like this are an absolute disgrace. They could set back the cause of UK independence from the EU for decades.
This is why I think UKIP are the worst thing to happen to the Eurosceptic movement/Better off out.
Being in favour of that is now associated with opposition to gay marriage, dislike of foreigners/non whites/non Brits.
What UKIP is needs is the likes of Richard Tyndall/Sean Fear front and centre otherwise David Cameron is going to be associated with two unique contributions to the English, one about Twitter and one about the fruitcakes.
I'm afraid you're absolutely right. The absolutism of Farage and some of the UKIP crowd which makes it seem like EFTA/EEA would be some kind of national disgrace turns off a lot of business that would otherwise be quite keen on Out.
SeanT Neil The principle is the same, voters drifting from rightwing minor parties to the main centre right party at the last moment, in Israel it was over fear of becoming run by Arabs, here it would be because of fear of being run by Scots
This is becoming increasingly absurd. Calm down HYUFD.
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
You told me at Dirty Dicks you were definitely voting UKIP
Will that make you and several thousand others accessories!!
The public seem strangely unaware that the UK is sleepwalking into a minority Labour government. I am guessing there'll be a lot of surprised voters out there on May 9th wondering why their Ukip vote translated into so few MPs and how come the SNP will dictate events in the next parliament. The consolation for the Lib Dems is that today's poliing so far sees them on 10% which gives them an outside chance of beating Ukip's popular vote in the unlikely event the latter have as poor night as the shortly to become embarrassed Dan Hodges expects.
The buzz going around those in the supposed 'know', is that the GE will see a substantially increase in voting numbers. If true, and not some random remark, then my hopes of a remarkable change may be realised.
A lot of my family and friends who generally don't vote are quite worried about the prospect of a Labour government. Some of these people were Labour voters. Almost all of them are backing Tory or Lib Dem. One relative has not voted in 30 years and will be voting Tory.
Maybe to the average person on the street the newspaper scare tactics are getting through. This does not appear to be reflected in the polling though.
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
Are you still dithering about whether to vote for UKIP?
Certainly not. That video shows that man to be deeply unpleasant. I have a wife who originates from Eastern Europe.
People like this are an absolute disgrace. They could set back the cause of UK independence from the EU for decades.
This is why I think UKIP are the worst thing to happen to the Eurosceptic movement/Better off out.
Being in favour of that is now associated with opposition to gay marriage, dislike of foreigners/non whites/non Brits.
What UKIP is needs is the likes of Richard Tyndall/Sean Fear front and centre otherwise David Cameron is going to be associated with two unique contributions to the English Language, one about Twitter and one about the fruitcakes.
Yes, I agree with that. Although I would say UKIP has forced Cameron to commit to an EU referendum I think he otherwise wouldn't have held.
The thing which fascinates me most is that, once the result is known, all the pundits will start telling us how it was always obvious it was going to turn out the way it did.
If only one could read the runes without benefit of hindsight!
SeanT Neil The principle is the same, voters drifting from rightwing minor parties to the main centre right party at the last moment, in Israel it was over fear of becoming run by Arabs, here it would be because of fear of being run by Scots
This is becoming increasingly absurd. Calm down HYUFD.
Oh, they were talking about concrete barriers and blockhouses not a year ago. Nothing new there.
Speedy You may not like it, but that is what happened, final polls had it neck and neck or Labour just in front Netanyahu said 'Arab voters are heading to the polling stations in droves' and he ended up with a clear lead and comfortably leading the largest party http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/17/binyamin-netanyahu-israel-arab-election
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
Are you still dithering about whether to vote for UKIP?
Certainly not. That video shows that man to be deeply unpleasant. I have a wife who originates from Eastern Europe.
People like this are an absolute disgrace. They could set back the cause of UK independence from the EU for decades.
This is why I think UKIP are the worst thing to happen to the Eurosceptic movement/Better off out.
Being in favour of that is now associated with opposition to gay marriage, dislike of foreigners/non whites/non Brits.
What UKIP is needs is the likes of Richard Tyndall/Sean Fear front and centre otherwise David Cameron is going to be associated with two unique contributions to the English Language, one about Twitter and one about the fruitcakes.
Yes, I agree with that. Although I would say UKIP has forced Cameron to commit to an EU referendum I think he otherwise wouldn't have held.
It badly needs moderate leadership.
So long as UKIP and Farage is the official voice of Out, then Out will lose. And probably lose quite badly.
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
Are you still dithering about whether to vote for UKIP?
Certainly not. That video shows that man to be deeply unpleasant. I have a wife who originates from Eastern Europe.
People like this are an absolute disgrace. They could set back the cause of UK independence from the EU for decades.
This is why I think UKIP are the worst thing to happen to the Eurosceptic movement/Better off out.
Being in favour of that is now associated with opposition to gay marriage, dislike of foreigners/non whites/non Brits.
What UKIP is needs is the likes of Richard Tyndall/Sean Fear front and centre otherwise David Cameron is going to be associated with two unique contributions to the English, one about Twitter and one about the fruitcakes.
I'm afraid you're absolutely right. The absolutism of Farage and some of the UKIP crowd which makes it seem like EFTA/EEA would be some kind of national disgrace turns off a lot of business that would otherwise be quite keen on Out.
On the latest set of abusive Scottish Nationalist trolls of whom Nicola Sturgeon said
"The SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon,described the fracas as disgraceful and “absolutely nothing to do with the SNP”."
I see two of the three trolls who have nonconnection to tue SNP have just had their SNP membership suspended, and as we discovered the other day the third was a former SNP Candidate.
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
Are you still dithering about whether to vote for UKIP?
Certainly not. That video shows that man to be deeply unpleasant. I have a wife who originates from Eastern Europe.
People like this are an absolute disgrace. They could set back the cause of UK independence from the EU for decades.
This is why I think UKIP are the worst thing to happen to the Eurosceptic movement/Better off out.
Being in favour of that is now associated with opposition to gay marriage, dislike of foreigners/non whites/non Brits.
What UKIP is needs is the likes of Richard Tyndall/Sean Fear front and centre otherwise David Cameron is going to be associated with two unique contributions to the English, one about Twitter and one about the fruitcakes.
I'm afraid you're absolutely right. The absolutism of Farage and some of the UKIP crowd which makes it seem like EFTA/EEA would be some kind of national disgrace turns off a lot of business that would otherwise be quite keen on Out. With EFTA/EEA it would be easier to get businesses on board and is less uncertain than a complete withdrawal. Richard North's book Flexit covers this option. It is not something I have read but intend to.
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
Are you still dithering about whether to vote for UKIP?
Certainly not. That video shows that man to be deeply unpleasant. I have a wife who originates from Eastern Europe.
People like this are an absolute disgrace. They could set back the cause of UK independence from the EU for decades.
I can never quite understand UKIP. They seem to now have a large number of normal, down-to-Earth spokesmen, and I've met a lot of very thoughtful UKIP supporters over the years. Yet they still put up some absolute nutcases as candidates. It would do them a world of good if they just asked every candidate a dozen or so questions about their views on race, homosexuality, and the new world order. For their next leader they need someone who is less of a showman and more willing to do the hard graft of sorting out the party.
David Tennant SLAB advert is risible. All about the past, past, past.
Interestingly BBC Scotland are not scheduling it separately. It is officially part of the Reporting Scotland news bulletin. BBC Scotland also trying to Unionise the language referring to Gordonstoun as a "public" school when it's a private school.
BBC Scotland also trying to Unionise the language referring to Gordonstoun as a "public" school when it's a private school
ROFL it really is 24/7 paranoid bollocks with you Dair. Plain barking.
Speedy You may not like it, but that is what happened, final polls had it neck and neck or Labour just in front Netanyahu said 'Arab voters are heading to the polling stations in droves' and he ended up with a clear lead and comfortably leading the largest party http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/17/binyamin-netanyahu-israel-arab-election
Cameron will not promise to disenfranchise everyone one who is not jewish and annex the West Bank, like Netanyahu promised in order to get the far-right vote. And I'm stopping this conversation now, before I fall to the same level of hypothetical absurdity as you have.
The Tories are set to lose the election with 48hrs to go, get over it and plan for the next election.
Here in Brigg & Goole local Conservative activists have decamped to Pudsey to help - they must be confident here. Labour need a 5.9% swing in Brigg & Goole.
I'm a Labour supporter and wouldn't be surprised if Andrew Percy increased his majority
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
You told me at Dirty Dicks you were definitely voting UKIP
Will that make you and several thousand others accessories!!
I don't follow you?
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena
Speedy The entire Tory final campaign has been built on Miliband being in Sturgeon and Salmond's pocket, EVEL and an EU referendum, time will tell if it hits home.
I know its unlikely, but if events in Scotland over the last 48 hours shift some support back to LAB and they end up on 30%, how many seats would fall back to them from the SNP?
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
Are you still dithering about whether to vote for UKIP?
Certainly not. That video shows that man to be deeply unpleasant. I have a wife who originates from Eastern Europe.
People like this are an absolute disgrace. They could set back the cause of UK independence from the EU for decades.
This is why I think UKIP are the worst thing to happen to the Eurosceptic movement/Better off out.
Being in favour of that is now associated with opposition to gay marriage, dislike of foreigners/non whites/non Brits.
What UKIP is needs is the likes of Richard Tyndall/Sean Fear front and centre otherwise David Cameron is going to be associated with two unique contributions to the English, one about Twitter and one about the fruitcakes.
But, far more people care about immoderate, statist, anti-immigrant policies than about wonkish libertarian Euroscepticism. Democracy works and the Nice Eurosceptic party would do about as well as the New Whigs or Cannabis is Safer than Alcohol. Cameron was definitely right about Twitter and he may yet prove to be right about Ukip, even if he wasn't at the time.
Here in Brigg & Goole local Conservative activists have decamped to Pudsey to help - they must be confident here. Labour need a 5.9% swing in Brigg & Goole.
I'm a Labour supporter and wouldn't be surprised if Andrew Percy increased his majority
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
Are you still dithering about whether to vote for UKIP?
Certainly not. That video shows that man to be deeply unpleasant. I have a wife who originates from Eastern Europe.
People like this are an absolute disgrace. They could set back the cause of UK independence from the EU for decades.
This is why I think UKIP are the worst thing to happen to the Eurosceptic movement/Better off out.
Being in favour of that is now associated with opposition to gay marriage, dislike of foreigners/non whites/non Brits.
What UKIP is needs is the likes of Richard Tyndall/Sean Fear front and centre otherwise David Cameron is going to be associated with two unique contributions to the English Language, one about Twitter and one about the fruitcakes.
Yes, I agree with that. Although I would say UKIP has forced Cameron to commit to an EU referendum I think he otherwise wouldn't have held.
It badly needs moderate leadership.
So long as UKIP and Farage is the official voice of Out, then Out will lose. And probably lose quite badly.
Whether we like it or not, it is immigration that matters most to the British public. If Cameron negotiates reasonable limits on immigration In will win. If the Better Off Out campaign can claim "they only way to stop open borders is to leave", then Out will win. Referenda are not about personalities, but issues.
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
Are you still dithering about whether to vote for UKIP?
Certainly not. That video shows that man to be deeply unpleasant. I have a wife who originates from Eastern Europe.
People like this are an absolute disgrace. They could set back the cause of UK independence from the EU for decades.
I can never quite understand UKIP. They seem to now have a large number of normal, down-to-Earth spokesmen, and I've met a lot of very thoughtful UKIP supporters over the years. Yet they still put up some absolute nutcases as candidates. It would do them a world of good if they just asked every candidate a dozen or so questions about their views on race, homosexuality, and the new world order. For their next leader they need someone who is less of a showman and more willing to do the hard graft of sorting out the party.
Well that is simple, the large number of UKIP members are new ones, it takes time for party members to rise up the ranks to the level of candidates in GE, in the next election they will probably make up the lions share of GE candidates, but not in this one.
On the latest set of abusive Scottish Nationalist trolls of whom Nicola Sturgeon said
"The SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon,described the fracas as disgraceful and “absolutely nothing to do with the SNP”."
I see two of the three trolls who have nonconnection to tue SNP have just had their SNP membership suspended, and as we discovered the other day the third was a former SNP Candidate.
When will they notice that the Three Monkeys act has stopped working?
It has stopped working among people who already hate them. We will see on the 7th whether it has stopped working among waverers, but it is undoubtedly advantageous to them to have all elements of nationalism on their side, from the calmest and most moderate to the angriest and most intemperate.
David Tennant SLAB advert is risible. All about the past, past, past.
Interestingly BBC Scotland are not scheduling it separately. It is officially part of the Reporting Scotland news bulletin. BBC Scotland also trying to Unionise the language referring to Gordonstoun as a "public" school when it's a private school.
BBC Scotland also trying to Unionise the language referring to Gordonstoun as a "public" school when it's a private school
ROFL it really is 24/7 paranoid bollocks with you Dair. Plain barking.
Maybe you don't understand the BBC. It has language guidelines which have to be adhered to by reporters. If BBC Scotland has started using the term "public" school for private schools then the term is being approved and authorised by the BBC Trust. The BBC has historically used the correct terms "private" or "independent", usually the latter.
This is a change in BBC policy. Any specifically provocative language change by the BBC is a policy decision and their journalists are well aware of it.
It is possible BBC Scotland are ignoring the BBC Trust rules. They continue to do so when referring to Rangers, continually questioning their status as a continuing club founded in 1872. The Trust has actually ruled on this but BBC Scotland continue to break the Trust rules. It is possible this is a BBC Scotland decision against Trust guidelines.
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
Are you still dithering about whether to vote for UKIP?
Certainly not. That video shows that man to be deeply unpleasant. I have a wife who originates from Eastern Europe.
People like this are an absolute disgrace. They could set back the cause of UK independence from the EU for decades.
This is why I think UKIP are the worst thing to happen to the Eurosceptic movement/Better off out.
Being in favour of that is now associated with opposition to gay marriage, dislike of foreigners/non whites/non Brits.
What UKIP is needs is the likes of Richard Tyndall/Sean Fear front and centre otherwise David Cameron is going to be associated with two unique contributions to the English, one about Twitter and one about the fruitcakes.
I'm afraid you're absolutely right. The absolutism of Farage and some of the UKIP crowd which makes it seem like EFTA/EEA would be some kind of national disgrace turns off a lot of business that would otherwise be quite keen on Out.
All parties have there stupids; this suspended kipper is an ex Tory, so go figure. A kipper was badly beaten up by 5 thugs yesterday. The fact is UKIP is growing and getting stronger and both @TSE and @rcs1000 cannot stand it, hence their bile and a smear whenever they see a chance.
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
Are you still dithering about whether to vote for UKIP?
Certainly not. That video shows that man to be deeply unpleasant. I have a wife who originates from Eastern Europe.
People like this are an absolute disgrace. They could set back the cause of UK independence from the EU for decades.
I can never quite understand UKIP. They seem to now have a large number of normal, down-to-Earth spokesmen, and I've met a lot of very thoughtful UKIP supporters over the years. Yet they still put up some absolute nutcases as candidates. It would do them a world of good if they just asked every candidate a dozen or so questions about their views on race, homosexuality, and the new world order. For their next leader they need someone who is less of a showman and more willing to do the hard graft of sorting out the party.
Yes, I think UKIP have a real problem with candidate selection. There really is no excuse for getting it this wrong - on, let's face it, far more than one occasion.
I might easily have ordered a postal vote, already voted for this guy, returned it, and now been able to do absolutely nothing about it.
David Tennant SLAB advert is risible. All about the past, past, past.
Interestingly BBC Scotland are not scheduling it separately. It is officially part of the Reporting Scotland news bulletin. BBC Scotland also trying to Unionise the language referring to Gordonstoun as a "public" school when it's a private school.
BBC Scotland also trying to Unionise the language referring to Gordonstoun as a "public" school when it's a private school
ROFL it really is 24/7 paranoid bollocks with you Dair. Plain barking.
Maybe you don't understand the BBC. It has language guidelines which have to be adhered to by reporters. If BBC Scotland has started using the term "public" school for private schools then the term is being approved and authorised by the BBC Trust. The BBC has historically used the correct terms "private" or "independent", usually the latter.
This is a change in BBC policy. Any specifically provocative language change by the BBC is a policy decision and their journalists are well aware of it.
It is possible BBC Scotland are ignoring the BBC Trust rules. They continue to do so when referring to Rangers, continually questioning their status as a continuing club founded in 1872. The Trust has actually ruled on this but BBC Scotland continue to break the Trust rules. It is possible this is a BBC Scotland decision against Trust guidelines.
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”
The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.
A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".
Wow. That's my seat.
You told me at Dirty Dicks you were definitely voting UKIP
Will that make you and several thousand others accessories!!
I don't follow you?
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena
Is Blay not the UKIP candidate?
Maybe i got hold of wrong end of stick?
Crossed wires BJO. That's correct, but I finally decided to vote Conservative in the last month.
The (strong) push was EICIPM and the pull was the Conservative manifesto, which is the best I think I could realistically have hoped for.
Speedy The entire Tory final campaign has been built on Miliband being in Sturgeon and Salmond's pocket, EVEL and an EU referendum, time will tell if it hits home.
As many predicted here, that strategy was a failure, is a failure and always be a failure. I predict that you will ask for the Tory campaign's head on a plate in about 54 hours from now for that stupid strategy.
David Tennant SLAB advert is risible. All about the past, past, past.
Interestingly BBC Scotland are not scheduling it separately. It is officially part of the Reporting Scotland news bulletin. BBC Scotland also trying to Unionise the language referring to Gordonstoun as a "public" school when it's a private school.
BBC Scotland also trying to Unionise the language referring to Gordonstoun as a "public" school when it's a private school
ROFL it really is 24/7 paranoid bollocks with you Dair. Plain barking.
Maybe you don't understand the BBC. It has language guidelines which have to be adhered to by reporters. If BBC Scotland has started using the term "public" school for private schools then the term is being approved and authorised by the BBC Trust. The BBC has historically used the correct terms "private" or "independent", usually the latter.
This is a change in BBC policy. Any specifically provocative language change by the BBC is a policy decision and their journalists are well aware of it.
It is possible BBC Scotland are ignoring the BBC Trust rules. They continue to do so when referring to Rangers, continually questioning their status as a continuing club founded in 1872. The Trust has actually ruled on this but BBC Scotland continue to break the Trust rules. It is possible this is a BBC Scotland decision against Trust guidelines.
I know its unlikely, but if events in Scotland over the last 48 hours shift some support back to LAB and they end up on 30%, how many seats would fall back to them from the SNP?
From electoralcalculus, using the populus uk-wide numbers and Scotland numbers of 18 for con, 4 for LD:
SNP 49, Lab 25 = 54 for nats, 5 for lab SNP 44, Lab 30 = 42 for nats, 14 for lab SNP 39, Lab 35 = 29 for nats, 23 for lab
I may be off slightly but I think that's approximately it
I wonder if some of the group think and betting is based on the judgement, the Tories look blatantly more competent and deserve to win, the British people must eventually notice this, therefore they will win.
What if they don't? The evidence suggests the people are about to make a dreadful mistake
Comments
I think that tops your hypotheticals.
Con + 2 vs last Survation (2nd May; Mail on Sunday)
Con = vs previous Mirror Survation (1st May)
They think they can recover "converts". Kippers are converts, they believe that the "other" is hurting them and they won't "return" because it is now against their fundamental beliefs.
The state of the polls is therefore:-
Panelbase, Lab+2%,
Survation Lab +1%,
Populus, Yougov, Com Res tied,
TNS, Opinium, Con +1%,
Ashcroft Con 2%,
ICM, BGM Con +3%,
Ipsos MORI, Con +5%,
Average Con lead 1.1%.
And Mitt Romney would be President ect ect.
That said, there really doesn't seem to be any Tory panic or breaking ranks that I've been expecting as long as the polls failed to shift.
Are you still dithering about whether to vote for UKIP?
The trouble with tactical voting is that it completely masks what people actually want. I recall in 1983 hearing from gloomy defeated lefties at university that Fatcha had no mandate to govern because 56% of the electorate had "voted against her". I pointed out that if you're going to interpret non-support in that way then 72% had "voted against" Labour so she still had every right to govern.
When you've got people voting UKIP to prevent a referendum by getting Labour in, and others voting SNP so Labour will win and screw the English, and voting Conservative so UKIP will lose, the actual vote percentages become literally almost completely meaningless. We know 28% of Labouroids will vote for a donkey in a red rosette - which is pretty much what Miliband is - but WTF anyone else's poll share means, I can't really fathom.
https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/595653596152209409
Certainly not. That video shows that man to be deeply unpleasant. I have a wife who originates from Eastern Europe.
People like this are an absolute disgrace. They could set back the cause of UK independence from the EU for decades.
Hopefully the EdStone is given a prominent location for the next 5 years.
Smart move.
Wonder if he went across to them and told them he wanted them all sent back?
Interestingly BBC Scotland are not scheduling it separately. It is officially part of the Reporting Scotland news bulletin. BBC Scotland also trying to Unionise the language referring to Gordonstoun as a "public" school when it's a private school.
At 3:28:09
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARifiLUKwxA
People like this are an absolute disgrace. They could set back the cause of UK independence from the EU for decades.
A point obvious to everyone but themselves. They really do imagine everyone is as deranged as they are.
People like this are an absolute disgrace. They could set back the cause of UK independence from the EU for decades.
This is why I think UKIP are the worst thing to happen to the Eurosceptic movement/Better off out.
Being in favour of that is now associated with opposition to gay marriage, dislike of foreigners/non whites/non Brits.
What UKIP is needs is the likes of Richard Tyndall/Sean Fear front and centre otherwise David Cameron is going to be associated with two unique contributions to the English Language, one about Twitter and one about the fruitcakes.
You told me at Dirty Dicks you were definitely voting UKIP
Will that make you and several thousand others accessories!!
Redcar is a dead cert loss, too I'm afraid. You've forgotten Norwich South.
LibDems 4-1 on 11-20 seats remains the greatest value bet of the election (although as the LibDems seem to be heading from 9% to 11% in the polls, I may be a loser on this one...)
I'm a Labour supporter and wouldn't be surprised if Andrew Percy increased his majority
https://twitter.com/andrewpercy/status/595330002247364609
Being in favour of that is now associated with opposition to gay marriage, dislike of foreigners/non whites/non Brits.
What UKIP is needs is the likes of Richard Tyndall/Sean Fear front and centre otherwise David Cameron is going to be associated with two unique contributions to the English, one about Twitter and one about the fruitcakes.
I'm afraid you're absolutely right. The absolutism of Farage and some of the UKIP crowd which makes it seem like EFTA/EEA would be some kind of national disgrace turns off a lot of business that would otherwise be quite keen on Out.
Calm down HYUFD.
Will that make you and several thousand others accessories!!
I don't follow you?
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/election-2015-voting-tactically-has-become-more-fraught-in-new-political-order-10227034.html
Maybe to the average person on the street the newspaper scare tactics are getting through. This does not appear to be reflected in the polling though.
Being in favour of that is now associated with opposition to gay marriage, dislike of foreigners/non whites/non Brits.
What UKIP is needs is the likes of Richard Tyndall/Sean Fear front and centre otherwise David Cameron is going to be associated with two unique contributions to the English Language, one about Twitter and one about the fruitcakes.
Yes, I agree with that. Although I would say UKIP has forced Cameron to commit to an EU referendum I think he otherwise wouldn't have held.
It badly needs moderate leadership.
If only one could read the runes without benefit of hindsight!
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/17/binyamin-netanyahu-israel-arab-election
It badly needs moderate leadership.
So long as UKIP and Farage is the official voice of Out, then Out will lose. And probably lose quite badly.
Absolutely bang on. So frustrating.
"The SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon,described the fracas as disgraceful and “absolutely nothing to do with the SNP”."
I see two of the three trolls who have nonconnection to tue SNP have just had their SNP membership suspended, and as we discovered the other day the third was a former SNP Candidate.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/snp-suspends-members-over-glasgow-protest-1-3763501
Glorious.
When will they notice that the Three Monkeys act has stopped working?
With EFTA/EEA it would be easier to get businesses on board and is less uncertain than a complete withdrawal. Richard North's book Flexit covers this option. It is not something I have read but intend to.
People like this are an absolute disgrace. They could set back the cause of UK independence from the EU for decades.
I can never quite understand UKIP. They seem to now have a large number of normal, down-to-Earth spokesmen, and I've met a lot of very thoughtful UKIP supporters over the years. Yet they still put up some absolute nutcases as candidates. It would do them a world of good if they just asked every candidate a dozen or so questions about their views on race, homosexuality, and the new world order. For their next leader they need someone who is less of a showman and more willing to do the hard graft of sorting out the party.
ROFL it really is 24/7 paranoid bollocks with you Dair. Plain barking.
And I'm stopping this conversation now, before I fall to the same level of hypothetical absurdity as you have.
The Tories are set to lose the election with 48hrs to go, get over it and plan for the next election.
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena
Is Blay not the UKIP candidate?
Maybe i got hold of wrong end of stick?
Being in favour of that is now associated with opposition to gay marriage, dislike of foreigners/non whites/non Brits.
What UKIP is needs is the likes of Richard Tyndall/Sean Fear front and centre otherwise David Cameron is going to be associated with two unique contributions to the English, one about Twitter and one about the fruitcakes.
But, far more people care about immoderate, statist, anti-immigrant policies than about wonkish libertarian Euroscepticism. Democracy works and the Nice Eurosceptic party would do about as well as the New Whigs or Cannabis is Safer than Alcohol. Cameron was definitely right about Twitter and he may yet prove to be right about Ukip, even if he wasn't at the time.
Whether we like it or not, it is immigration that matters most to the British public. If Cameron negotiates reasonable limits on immigration In will win. If the Better Off Out campaign can claim "they only way to stop open borders is to leave", then Out will win. Referenda are not about personalities, but issues.
Well that is simple, the large number of UKIP members are new ones, it takes time for party members to rise up the ranks to the level of candidates in GE, in the next election they will probably make up the lions share of GE candidates, but not in this one.
This is a change in BBC policy. Any specifically provocative language change by the BBC is a policy decision and their journalists are well aware of it.
It is possible BBC Scotland are ignoring the BBC Trust rules. They continue to do so when referring to Rangers, continually questioning their status as a continuing club founded in 1872. The Trust has actually ruled on this but BBC Scotland continue to break the Trust rules. It is possible this is a BBC Scotland decision against Trust guidelines.
Who from here is also going?
All parties have there stupids; this suspended kipper is an ex Tory, so go figure. A kipper was badly beaten up by 5 thugs yesterday. The fact is UKIP is growing and getting stronger and both @TSE and @rcs1000 cannot stand it, hence their bile and a smear whenever they see a chance.
Yes, I think UKIP have a real problem with candidate selection. There really is no excuse for getting it this wrong - on, let's face it, far more than one occasion.
I might easily have ordered a postal vote, already voted for this guy, returned it, and now been able to do absolutely nothing about it.
That makes me feel slightly sick.
Is Blay not the UKIP candidate?
Maybe i got hold of wrong end of stick?
Crossed wires BJO. That's correct, but I finally decided to vote Conservative in the last month.
The (strong) push was EICIPM and the pull was the Conservative manifesto, which is the best I think I could realistically have hoped for.
I predict that you will ask for the Tory campaign's head on a plate in about 54 hours from now for that stupid strategy.
Goodnight.
Many thanks!
SNP 49, Lab 25 = 54 for nats, 5 for lab
SNP 44, Lab 30 = 42 for nats, 14 for lab
SNP 39, Lab 35 = 29 for nats, 23 for lab
I may be off slightly but I think that's approximately it
What if they don't? The evidence suggests the people are about to make a dreadful mistake