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  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Pong said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Another +1 for Scotterdämmerung :)

    I don't get it.

    "dämmerung" is twilight, right?

    so, Scottish twilight. In German. Presumably there's more to it that that, or some cultural/political/historical reference I'm not getting?
    Yes

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Götterdämmerung


    I'm the only pber ever to put Götterdämmerung in to a thread header

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/02/28/are-we-entering-the-twilight-of-the-leadership-of-dave/
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Still undecided about how I'll follow things, and for how long. The agony of choice!

    If Witcher 3 came out earlier, I'd just play that for ages and occasionally flick back onto the TV in between playing cards and severing heads.

    Mr. Herdson's quite right. This election's as hard to call as the start of the 2012 F1 season (when the first seven races had seven different winners).

    TV for election show of your choice, computer for various websites, and iPad for PB (the place to be during national events)?

    Of course, I am assuming you are talking about how you are going to follow the election coverage..... :D
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    Pong said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Another +1 for Scotterdämmerung :)

    I don't get it.

    "dämmerung" is twilight, right?

    so, Scottish twilight. In German. Presumably there's more to it that that, or some cultural/political/historical reference I'm not getting?
    well technically if you want it in German it should be Schottendämmerung - twilight of the Scots. ie they vote National Sociialist and the whole place collapses.

    seems fair.
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    Cam dodging questions on benefit cuts on the BBC sofa...
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    DavidL said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    On Scotterdammerung:

    There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.

    Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?

    This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.

    Interesting times!

    The quality of SLAB MPs and the sort of institutional arrogance that allowed such placemen to become candidates is not the least of the problems they are facing at this election. SLAB have tested the donkey with the rosette theory to destruction. Very few would add much to the generally embarrassing level of debate in the Scottish Parliament.

    Whatever you think of them, people such as Alexander, Curran and Murphy would surely make Labour a stronger, more forceful presence in Holyrood. Like it or not, Labour's big beasts in Scotland need to face up to the fact that's where their futures lie.

  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. D, I'm not some foie gras-munching bourgeois member of the elite who possesses the flagrant capitalist decadence of an iPad!
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Pong said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Another +1 for Scotterdämmerung :)

    I don't get it.

    "dämmerung" is twilight, right?

    so, Scottish twilight. In German. Presumably there's more to it that that, or some cultural/political/historical reference I'm not getting?
    Wagner's Gotterdammerung (the final opera in his Ring cycle) = twilight of the Gods.

    However, it's taken a more general meaning to be the end of any era whereby the previously powerful are overcome, particularly by the efforts of the heroic everyman.

    The inference being that the Scottish political 'gods' i.e. the Labour machine is about to witness its own descent into night. One could argue the literality of the metaphor as after the twilight and the night is a new dawn whereas in both settings, the assumption is that it's permanent. Furthermore, the gods lose their power both through their own actions of selfishness and quarrelling, and through human love rendering the gods redundant. There are enough parallels to make antifrank's creation perfect.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    What are the odds on them calling the baby Albert?

    Prince Albert has a nice ring to it.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What are the odds on them calling the baby Albert?

    Prince Albert has a nice ring to it.

    Your coat, sir.
  • Moses_
    Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    david_herdson said:

    Moses_ said:

    TGOHF said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: The Duchess of Cambridge has been admitted to hospital and is in the early stages of labour #RoyalBaby

    I only mentioned this last night as a "black signet" event ( even if known about and the signets are actually white at birth I believe.)

    ...
    I believe they're usually gold.
    Interesting. Also I think I should have put Cygnet? Or is signet acceptable?
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    DavidL said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    And here's the split into Phone polls v. Online: https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594264607885254657


    I do think/hope that this chart could prove to be one of the most significant of the election and well done to Sunil for collating it. It shows a consistent and increasing swing to the Tories in the phone polls indicative of a lead by polling day of maybe 4%. This is being masked by Yougov in particular which is showing a swing back to Labour and dragging the average back to flat.

    I don't think anyone can be completely confident about who is right and who is wrong in this polling but one delivers one of David's surprises and one delivers another. In court cases that are not clear cut one of the tests is which side would you rather be on? I think in this case I would rather be on the side of the phones.
    If this was 2005, with Yougov the only Internet pollster, polling two or three times a week, we'd be expecting a Conservative plurality. Over the past week, Labour have led in eight, and the Conservatives have led in eight. But, five Labour leads have been with Yougov.

    Currently, the Conservatives lead with six pollsters, Labour with three, and the Conservative leads are bigger.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Parliamentary party take note

    @PaulGoodmanCH: If the Tories win more seats but Labour gains office, over half of party members think Cameron should remain leader http://t.co/Wmlme8uV2Y
  • Monksfield
    Monksfield Posts: 2,905
    SouthamObserver said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The most astonishing result would be a Labour majority. The second most astonishing a Labour plurality. The most likely result is a comfortable Tory plurality. A Tory majority would be mildly surprising. In short, the campaign has changed very little.

    100/1 available on Betfair for a Labour majority.

    Taking out a few notes and using them to light a fire would be a better use of money than placing a bet on a Labour majority!

    My final forecast range:
    Tories - 285-305
    Labour - 245-265
    LibDems - 20-30
    SNP - 55-59



    I can't see the Tories over 290. Labour towards the top of your range, and despite all evidence to the contrary I think SNP will get about 50. I suspect the Shy anti vote to coalesce in a few seats. The prediction I made for the comp a couple of weeks ago I'd still be happy with if I hadn't underestimated SNP a bit at the expense of Lab. That was 285/280. 285/270 looks more likely now.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    edited May 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What are the odds on them calling the baby Albert?

    Prince Albert has a nice ring to it.

    Pretty long if it's a girl. Likewise, be careful of Alice Diana if it's a boy.

    Edit - Durr, just got the "joke".

  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    He seemed to suggest that the cuts will target the disabled.

    As long as they aren't disabled pensioners I suppose.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What are the odds on them calling the baby Albert?

    Prince Albert has a nice ring to it.

    Your coat, sir.
    Is why I could never be Prime Minister or Foreign Secretary.

    Me meeting Prince Albert of Monaco would end in a diplomatic incident and possibly a war.
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    Pong said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Another +1 for Scotterdämmerung :)

    I don't get it.

    "dämmerung" is twilight, right?

    so, Scottish twilight. In German. Presumably there's more to it that that, or some cultural/political/historical reference I'm not getting?
    Definition of GÖTTERDÄMMERUNG
    : a collapse (as of a society or regime) marked by catastrophic violence and disorder; broadly : downfall
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Tissue_Price said:

    david_herdson said:

    Alistair said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Excellent article Mr Herdson.

    The thing that strikes me as odd about Yougov is the consistency of their polls - surely they should have thrown up one outlier by now?

    Chan e of seeing no outliers can be calculated as 0.95 to the power of N where N is the number of days. Over a 20 day run there is a better than 1 in 3 Chance of seeing no outliers. Over 30 days it is still 1 in 5 of seeing no outliers.
    But an outlier is one beyond the MoE, which is usually quoted as 3%. Even if methodology has reduced that number a bit, we're barely seeing any variation more than one point either side of the mode. Indeed, since Easter, there's only been one poll to put the Tories outside 34±1, none to have put Labour outside 35±1, none to have put the Lib Dems outside 8±1, none to have put UKIP outside 13±1 and none to have put the Greens outside 5±1.

    That is more than consistent.
    Once you start weighting to known (not recalled) prior opinions as well as demographics I think the statistical MoE might actually be more like 1-1.5%.
    There have been 24 YouGovs since Easter, each reporting five party figures. Of those 120 scores, only one has been outside a two-point range for the relevant party. I accept that they're related contingencies but even so, if the MoE was 1%, you'd still be expecting six or so outside (perhaps more as a high for one party is likely to result in a low for another).

    And that's before considering that opinion itself might not have been that static over the course of an election campaign.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Eagles, to be fair, I think we'd win a war with Monaco. And you might cause enough damage to stop its 'circuit' being inflicted on F1 every year.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What are the odds on them calling the baby Albert?

    Prince Albert has a nice ring to it.

    maybe it's no name just a symbol
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Moses_ said:

    david_herdson said:

    Moses_ said:

    TGOHF said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: The Duchess of Cambridge has been admitted to hospital and is in the early stages of labour #RoyalBaby

    I only mentioned this last night as a "black signet" event ( even if known about and the signets are actually white at birth I believe.)

    ...
    I believe they're usually gold.
    Interesting. Also I think I should have put Cygnet? Or is signet acceptable?
    It's a ring reference.

    How did this thread get three different 'ring' strands so early?
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    So will the royal sprog leave hospital before Cam leaves Downing Street?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Well after reading this article, I've just filled in my postal vote.

    My record of voting Tory in every general election that I could vote in remains unbroken


    @patrickwintour: Nick Clegg in Times reopens apparently closed door to a coaliton with Labour, if dependent on SNP. http://t.co/lBaAgP9YR3
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    Alanbrooke said:

    Pong said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Another +1 for Scotterdämmerung :)

    I don't get it.

    "dämmerung" is twilight, right?

    so, Scottish twilight. In German. Presumably there's more to it that that, or some cultural/political/historical reference I'm not getting?
    well technically if you want it in German it should be Schottendämmerung - twilight of the Scots. ie they vote National Sociialist and the whole place collapses.

    seems fair.
    Alan, more like SchottenSonnenaufgang
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    So, Labour are facing a wipe out event in Scotland. Therefore they keep as their UK election organiser Douglas Alexander. Alexander is facing losing his own seat in Scotland. Utter madness, if EdM cannot see from the end of last year that this was very very stupid, his premiership will be worse than Brown's.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Herdson, one does not simply talk about the one ring.
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    SouthamObserver said:

    DavidL said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    On Scotterdammerung:

    There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.

    Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?

    This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.

    Interesting times!

    The quality of SLAB MPs and the sort of institutional arrogance that allowed such placemen to become candidates is not the least of the problems they are facing at this election. SLAB have tested the donkey with the rosette theory to destruction. Very few would add much to the generally embarrassing level of debate in the Scottish Parliament.

    Whatever you think of them, people such as Alexander, Curran and Murphy would surely make Labour a stronger, more forceful presence in Holyrood. Like it or not, Labour's big beasts in Scotland need to face up to the fact that's where their futures lie.

    SO, we want rid of lying cheating toerags
  • Moses_
    Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    SandyRentool said:

    Cam dodging questions on benefit cuts on the BBC sofa...

    SandyRentool said:

    He seemed to suggest that the cuts will target the disabled.

    As long as they aren't disabled pensioners I suppose.

    Yeah yeah old sick needy... FFS give it a break why don't you?
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    malcolmg said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Pong said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Another +1 for Scotterdämmerung :)

    I don't get it.

    "dämmerung" is twilight, right?

    so, Scottish twilight. In German. Presumably there's more to it that that, or some cultural/political/historical reference I'm not getting?
    well technically if you want it in German it should be Schottendämmerung - twilight of the Scots. ie they vote National Sociialist and the whole place collapses.

    seems fair.
    Alan, more like SchottenSonnenaufgang
    Sottish sunrise.

    So you're more like Imperial Japan than Germany ?

    McBanzai :-)
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    SouthamObserver said:

    DavidL said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    On Scotterdammerung:

    There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.

    Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?

    This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.

    Interesting times!

    The quality of SLAB MPs and the sort of institutional arrogance that allowed such placemen to become candidates is not the least of the problems they are facing at this election. SLAB have tested the donkey with the rosette theory to destruction. Very few would add much to the generally embarrassing level of debate in the Scottish Parliament.

    Whatever you think of them, people such as Alexander, Curran and Murphy would surely make Labour a stronger, more forceful presence in Holyrood. Like it or not, Labour's big beasts in Scotland need to face up to the fact that's where their futures lie.

    I honestly don't think that Alexander and Curran add anything. The most interesting SLAB MPs for me are Tom Harris and Mark Lazarowicz who, apart from Murphy, may be the only ones to get some sort of personal vote.

    Murphy will face a serious dilemma if he hangs on. Does he stand for the Scottish Parliament and the role of First Minister or does he hang on in Westminster? If Labour have 5 Scottish MPs could they really risk a by election?

    This shows another worrying consequence of the SNP tidal wave. We have got used to a Tory party with minimal Scottish input for nearly 20 years now but Scots have played a very full role in both Labour and the Lib Dems. That is about to change.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    malcolmg said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    DavidL said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    On Scotterdammerung:

    There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.

    Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?

    This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.

    Interesting times!

    The quality of SLAB MPs and the sort of institutional arrogance that allowed such placemen to become candidates is not the least of the problems they are facing at this election. SLAB have tested the donkey with the rosette theory to destruction. Very few would add much to the generally embarrassing level of debate in the Scottish Parliament.

    Whatever you think of them, people such as Alexander, Curran and Murphy would surely make Labour a stronger, more forceful presence in Holyrood. Like it or not, Labour's big beasts in Scotland need to face up to the fact that's where their futures lie.

    SO, we want rid of lying cheating toerags
    so that's why you're sending Salmond to Westmisnter.
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Alanbrooke said:

    malcolmg said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    DavidL said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    On Scotterdammerung:

    There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.

    Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?

    This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.

    Interesting times!

    The quality of SLAB MPs and the sort of institutional arrogance that allowed such placemen to become candidates is not the least of the problems they are facing at this election. SLAB have tested the donkey with the rosette theory to destruction. Very few would add much to the generally embarrassing level of debate in the Scottish Parliament.

    Whatever you think of them, people such as Alexander, Curran and Murphy would surely make Labour a stronger, more forceful presence in Holyrood. Like it or not, Labour's big beasts in Scotland need to face up to the fact that's where their futures lie.

    SO, we want rid of lying cheating toerags
    so that's why you're sending Salmond to Westmisnter.
    Good point.
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    Alanbrooke said:

    malcolmg said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Pong said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Another +1 for Scotterdämmerung :)

    I don't get it.

    "dämmerung" is twilight, right?

    so, Scottish twilight. In German. Presumably there's more to it that that, or some cultural/political/historical reference I'm not getting?
    well technically if you want it in German it should be Schottendämmerung - twilight of the Scots. ie they vote National Sociialist and the whole place collapses.

    seems fair.
    Alan, more like SchottenSonnenaufgang
    Sottish sunrise.

    So you're more like Imperial Japan than Germany ?

    McBanzai :-)
    LOL
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well after reading this article, I've just filled in my postal vote.

    My record of voting Tory in every general election that I could vote in remains unbroken


    @patrickwintour: Nick Clegg in Times reopens apparently closed door to a coaliton with Labour, if dependent on SNP. http://t.co/lBaAgP9YR3

    I never thought I would congratulate someone for choosing to vote Conservative!
  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Absolute specific numbers..
    Con 310
    Lab 265
    LD 32
    SNP 47
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    SandyRentool said:

    So will the royal sprog leave hospital before Cam leaves Downing Street?

    I doubt the Duchess of Cambridge will be in labour for five years ....

    Even Kay Burley couldn't waffle on for that long .... could she ?? .... :cry:

  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Brooke, not really my area, but isn't there a fair analogy between Sturgeon as a Shogun, and Miliband as a figurehead Emperor?
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    Moses_ said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Cam dodging questions on benefit cuts on the BBC sofa...

    SandyRentool said:

    He seemed to suggest that the cuts will target the disabled.

    As long as they aren't disabled pensioners I suppose.

    Yeah yeah old sick needy... FFS give it a break why don't you?
    I will when the Tories come clean on what they want to cut.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    david_herdson said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    david_herdson said:

    Alistair said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Excellent article Mr Herdson.

    The thing that strikes me as odd about Yougov is the consistency of their polls - surely they should have thrown up one outlier by now?

    Chan e of seeing no outliers can be calculated as 0.95 to the power of N where N is the number of days. Over a 20 day run there is a better than 1 in 3 Chance of seeing no outliers. Over 30 days it is still 1 in 5 of seeing no outliers.
    But an outlier is one beyond the MoE, which is usually quoted as 3%. Even if methodology has reduced that number a bit, we're barely seeing any variation more than one point either side of the mode. Indeed, since Easter, there's only been one poll to put the Tories outside 34±1, none to have put Labour outside 35±1, none to have put the Lib Dems outside 8±1, none to have put UKIP outside 13±1 and none to have put the Greens outside 5±1.

    That is more than consistent.
    Once you start weighting to known (not recalled) prior opinions as well as demographics I think the statistical MoE might actually be more like 1-1.5%.
    There have been 24 YouGovs since Easter, each reporting five party figures. Of those 120 scores, only one has been outside a two-point range for the relevant party. I accept that they're related contingencies but even so, if the MoE was 1%, you'd still be expecting six or so outside (perhaps more as a high for one party is likely to result in a low for another).

    And that's before considering that opinion itself might not have been that static over the course of an election campaign.
    I quite agree; I think YouGov have got this wrong. But simply testing their outcomes against the mathematical distribution you'd expect if the true position had remained 34.5%-33.5% (i.e. some 37-31's etc.) isn't the way to go about proving it.

    The mathematical MOE of weighted polling is lower than that given by statistics (that's why they weight). The methodological MOE is substantial and obviously the pollsters don't like to talk about that. So the mathematical 3% figure is very useful for them!
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    Thanks all, I've been educated :)
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    malcolmg said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Pong said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Another +1 for Scotterdämmerung :)

    I don't get it.

    "dämmerung" is twilight, right?

    so, Scottish twilight. In German. Presumably there's more to it that that, or some cultural/political/historical reference I'm not getting?
    well technically if you want it in German it should be Schottendämmerung - twilight of the Scots. ie they vote National Sociialist and the whole place collapses.

    seems fair.
    Alan, more like SchottenSonnenaufgang
    Neologisms need not be HochDeutsch! The meaning is clear; though twilight for SLAB (and SLD) rather than Scots.
    malcolmg said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    On Scotterdammerung:

    There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.

    Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?

    This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.

    Interesting times!

    However , Lamont closed the lists last year and said that sitting MSP's could not be ousted for carpet baggers , she knew what was coming.
    Interesting. Can they still run in constituencies? Or will they have to earn a living like the rest of us before trying to get back in next time as per Nick P?
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Dodd, I think your total's a bit high (18 or so for Northern Ireland, a couple for Plaid Cymru, the Speaker and maybe a Green).

    I think, broadly, that's a credible forecast.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    edited May 2015
    DavidL said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    DavidL said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    On Scotterdammerung:

    There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.

    Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?

    This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.

    Interesting times!

    The quality of SLAB MPs and the sort of institutional arrogance that allowed such placemen to become candidates is not the least of the problems they are facing at this election. SLAB have tested the donkey with the rosette theory to destruction. Very few would add much to the generally embarrassing level of debate in the Scottish Parliament.

    Whatever you think of them, people such as Alexander, Curran and Murphy would surely make Labour a stronger, more forceful presence in Holyrood. Like it or not, Labour's big beasts in Scotland need to face up to the fact that's where their futures lie.

    I honestly don't think that Alexander and Curran add anything. The most interesting SLAB MPs for me are Tom Harris and Mark Lazarowicz who, apart from Murphy, may be the only ones to get some sort of personal vote.

    Murphy will face a serious dilemma if he hangs on. Does he stand for the Scottish Parliament and the role of First Minister or does he hang on in Westminster? If Labour have 5 Scottish MPs could they really risk a by election?

    This shows another worrying consequence of the SNP tidal wave. We have got used to a Tory party with minimal Scottish input for nearly 20 years now but Scots have played a very full role in both Labour and the Lib Dems. That is about to change.
    Well a chunk of that is the Tories own fault. They've spent too long ignoring Scotland and not doing enough to rebuild support. Maybe as the jigsaw pieces are thrown into the air this year, they'll get some common sense and start rebuilding a party behind Ruth Davidson. Starting with tackling the 30 years of cheap Slab demonisation of anyone of the right.
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    DavidL said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    DavidL said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    On Scotterdammerung:

    There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.

    Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?

    This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.

    Interesting times!

    The quality of SLAB MPs and the sort of institutional arrogance that allowed such placemen to become candidates is not the least of the problems they are facing at this election. SLAB have tested the donkey with the rosette theory to destruction. Very few would add much to the generally embarrassing level of debate in the Scottish Parliament.

    Whatever you think of them, people such as Alexander, Curran and Murphy would surely make Labour a stronger, more forceful presence in Holyrood. Like it or not, Labour's big beasts in Scotland need to face up to the fact that's where their futures lie.

    I honestly don't think that Alexander and Curran add anything. The most interesting SLAB MPs for me are Tom Harris and Mark Lazarowicz who, apart from Murphy, may be the only ones to get some sort of personal vote.

    Murphy will face a serious dilemma if he hangs on. Does he stand for the Scottish Parliament and the role of First Minister or does he hang on in Westminster? If Labour have 5 Scottish MPs could they really risk a by election?

    This shows another worrying consequence of the SNP tidal wave. We have got used to a Tory party with minimal Scottish input for nearly 20 years now but Scots have played a very full role in both Labour and the Lib Dems. That is about to change.
    David, Harris is a real donkey and just a trougher of the worst order, useless as an MP. Lazarowicz is the invisible man , has anybody ever heard from or of him. These guys typify SLAB MP's. Add them to the sleazy snake oil seller Alexander and fishwife halfwit Curran and you see SLAB in all its crapness.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Pong, if only Mr. Eagles had your civilised attitude towards learning.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well after reading this article, I've just filled in my postal vote.

    My record of voting Tory in every general election that I could vote in remains unbroken


    @patrickwintour: Nick Clegg in Times reopens apparently closed door to a coaliton with Labour, if dependent on SNP. http://t.co/lBaAgP9YR3

    CON GAIN

    NB in June 2016
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    SandyRentool said:

    Moses_ said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Cam dodging questions on benefit cuts on the BBC sofa...

    SandyRentool said:

    He seemed to suggest that the cuts will target the disabled.

    As long as they aren't disabled pensioners I suppose.

    Yeah yeah old sick needy... FFS give it a break why don't you?
    I will when the Tories come clean on what they want to cut.
    For sure it will not be their rich chums
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    DavidL said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    DavidL said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    On Scotterdammerung:

    There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.

    Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?

    This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.

    Interesting times!

    The quality of SLAB MPs and the sort of institutional arrogance that allowed such placemen to become candidates is not the least of the problems they are facing at this election. SLAB have tested the donkey with the rosette theory to destruction. Very few would add much to the generally embarrassing level of debate in the Scottish Parliament.

    Whatever you think of them, people such as Alexander, Curran and Murphy would surely make Labour a stronger, more forceful presence in Holyrood. Like it or not, Labour's big beasts in Scotland need to face up to the fact that's where their futures lie.

    I honestly don't think that Alexander and Curran add anything. The most interesting SLAB MPs for me are Tom Harris and Mark Lazarowicz who, apart from Murphy, may be the only ones to get some sort of personal vote.

    Murphy will face a serious dilemma if he hangs on. Does he stand for the Scottish Parliament and the role of First Minister or does he hang on in Westminster? If Labour have 5 Scottish MPs could they really risk a by election?

    This shows another worrying consequence of the SNP tidal wave. We have got used to a Tory party with minimal Scottish input for nearly 20 years now but Scots have played a very full role in both Labour and the Lib Dems. That is about to change.
    Following my last response to you, it surely does no harm to the Conservatives for the narrative to be that this is neck and neck.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Brooke, not really my area, but isn't there a fair analogy between Sturgeon as a Shogun, and Miliband as a figurehead Emperor?

    I think it's more Nicola = Harry Corbett, Ed = Sooty.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    Tissue_Price said:

    The issue is whether the internet panels are full of more politically aware people who are more likely than average to be committed. But they tracked the Labour slump just fine until January. If the phone pollsters prove correct I think we will have to consider the infiltration & manipulation hypothesis.

    Possibly.

    I feel that there is perhaps a natural skew that comes in with age, working patterns and lifestyle with internet polls.

    I still regularly encounter people in the 65+ age group who have no access, nor interest, in the internet. Many have no great confidence in using it even if they do. They all have telephones.

    A certain type of lifestyle and pattern/type of work is also likely to make someone more able/probable to respond. People with time on their hands.

    I realise that weighting is supposed to correct these things, but I'm not sure that it adequately does.
  • saddened
    saddened Posts: 2,245
    SandyRentool said:

    So will the royal sprog leave hospital before Cam leaves Downing Street?

    Keeping it there until it's fifth birthday seems a little harsh.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Alanbrooke said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Brooke, not really my area, but isn't there a fair analogy between Sturgeon as a Shogun, and Miliband as a figurehead Emperor?

    I think it's more Nicola = Harry Corbett, Ed = Sooty.
    That's verging into Anna Soubry/Nigel Farage territory.
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    edited May 2015
    SouthamObserver said:

    Jonathan said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The most astonishing result would be a Labour majority. The second most astonishing a Labour plurality. The most likely result is a comfortable Tory plurality. A Tory majority would be mildly surprising. In short, the campaign has changed very little.

    A Tory majority would be unexpected.

    If the polls tell us anything it's that Labour are up and the Tories are down wrt to 2010.

    In 2010, with 37% and an 8 pt lead the Tories didn't win a majority.
    In 1992, they barely scraped a majority with 42% of the vote.

    I think Labour's vote % will go up and the Tories will get more or less what they got in 2010. But Labour needs around 38-40 gains in E&W just to stand still. That is a very tough ask, as a lot of Red LDs will "come home" in existing Labour seats. I also fancy we'll see a fair bit of Tory tactical voting for incumbent LD MPs where they are up against a Labour challenger. I expect Labour will win fewer than 10 seats against the LDs. I doubt UKIP will take any Labour seats, but it would not surprise me if they did.
    I can't make up my mind, but am generally pessimistic. This feels like a classic Tory election. I can see three scenarios from most likely to least

    (1) Everything has been overhyped. The SLab/LD collapse is limited. 40 seats change hand in England. Things basically carry on as they were with a much reduced Coalition majority.

    (2) Labour do enough to get the Tories out. Anti-Tory tactical voting pattern dominates, boosting Labour (unwinding the Clegg effect of 2010). Labour/LD win where they challenge Tories.

    (3) Canadian style tipping point reached, total SLab/LD collapse. Tory small majority based on hoovering up all LD seats and limiting losses to Labour through better turnout (a la 1992)







  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    Jonathan said:

    Do we know whether phone polls use mobiles? If they don't they clearly aren't sampling the full population.

    Someones said yes they do but I thought they didn't?
    Moses_ said:

    Purseybear said:

    JackW said:

    Will the nation follow suit and shortly enter into a lengthy period of Labour .... ??

    Nah. We'll be delivered of that.

    If Labour finishes well then the only contractions will be in the economy
    :D
    Tissue_Price said:

    @Purseybear

    YouGov's incredibly stable outcome is actually what we should expect if opinion hasn't changed. Statistical MOE on opinion polls isn't actually 3% (because of weighting) and they are now weighting to prior opinion rather than just demography which will increase stability still further [by design]. Look up edmundintokyo's posts yesterday for more on this.

    The issue is whether the internet panels are full of more politically aware people who are more likely than average to be committed. But they tracked the Labour slump just fine until January. If the phone pollsters prove correct I think we will have to consider the infiltration & manipulation hypothesis.

    Dealt with, crushingly, by David Herdson.
  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited May 2015
    MD..Quite right, but it is a top number..The LDs may drop a little and so could the Cons..Lab might just stay the same..SNP..dunno,,,the Hype is very loud and they may fall short on that number..old habits die hard, especially in Scotland..and they did vote NO in the Ref.Fun to watch tho..
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    foxinsoxuk said:

    malcolmg said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Pong said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Another +1 for Scotterdämmerung :)

    I don't get it.

    "dämmerung" is twilight, right?

    so, Scottish twilight. In German. Presumably there's more to it that that, or some cultural/political/historical reference I'm not getting?
    well technically if you want it in German it should be Schottendämmerung - twilight of the Scots. ie they vote National Sociialist and the whole place collapses.

    seems fair.
    Alan, more like SchottenSonnenaufgang
    Neologisms need not be HochDeutsch! The meaning is clear; though twilight for SLAB (and SLD) rather than Scots.
    malcolmg said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    On Scotterdammerung:

    There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.

    Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?

    This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.

    Interesting times!

    However , Lamont closed the lists last year and said that sitting MSP's could not be ousted for carpet baggers , she knew what was coming.
    Interesting. Can they still run in constituencies? Or will they have to earn a living like the rest of us before trying to get back in next time as per Nick P?
    Fox, supposedly and existing MSP or list MSP etc could not be removed, unless they stepped down , to make way for carpetbaggers. Whether Murphy will change that , who knows.
    Interesting that Murphy has said he will do 5 years if he is returned to Westminster and also be FM as well, I think he has lost it or just accepts if he is lucky he will be back in London.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    Penultimate ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

    15 minutes 15 seconds
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well after reading this article, I've just filled in my postal vote.

    My record of voting Tory in every general election that I could vote in remains unbroken


    @patrickwintour: Nick Clegg in Times reopens apparently closed door to a coaliton with Labour, if dependent on SNP. http://t.co/lBaAgP9YR3

    Not easy indulging in this tactical voting stuff is it? Given that the models and pollsters are indicating a 99% probability of the SNP taking Dundee West comfortably I think now I will stick with what I believe. If there had been a hint it was going to be close I would have voted Labour but there isn't.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    chestnut said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    The issue is whether the internet panels are full of more politically aware people who are more likely than average to be committed. But they tracked the Labour slump just fine until January. If the phone pollsters prove correct I think we will have to consider the infiltration & manipulation hypothesis.

    Possibly.

    I feel that there is perhaps a natural skew that comes in with age, working patterns and lifestyle with internet polls.

    I still regularly encounter people in the 65+ age group who have no access, nor interest, in the internet. Many have no great confidence in using it even if they do. They all have telephones.

    A certain type of lifestyle and pattern/type of work is also likely to make someone more able/probable to respond. People with time on their hands.

    I realise that weighting is supposed to correct these things, but I'm not sure that it adequately does.
    It is quite possible that weighting makes it worse. If older people are less likely to use the internet then those who do are probably more atypical, and even more so if weighted by socioeconomic factors.

    So silver surfers who are purple tinged may well get significantly upweighted even beyond their numbers.
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Be interesting to see if the Royals in the news dents the SNP's numbers in Scotland. In theory it should boost positive feelings for unionism.
  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    edited May 2015
    CarlottaVance said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Excellent article Mr Herdson.

    The thing that strikes me as odd about Yougov is the consistency of their polls - surely they should have thrown up one outlier by now?

    Not really, the way they now weight to something highly correlated with current VI, namely Jan/Feb VI, means that their normal MoE is less than the 3% or whatever you' might have expected from their sample size, and relatedly the probability of them randomly getter numbers more than 3% out is less than 5%.
    So about one in twenty.

    We've had 28 YouGovs to date......
    Not 5% (one in twenty), less than 5%. Probably quite a lot less than 5%.
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    Alanbrooke said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Brooke, not really my area, but isn't there a fair analogy between Sturgeon as a Shogun, and Miliband as a figurehead Emperor?

    I think it's more Nicola = Harry Corbett, Ed = Sooty.
    Is Ed not more like Sweep
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    malcolmg said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Moses_ said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Cam dodging questions on benefit cuts on the BBC sofa...

    SandyRentool said:

    He seemed to suggest that the cuts will target the disabled.

    As long as they aren't disabled pensioners I suppose.

    Yeah yeah old sick needy... FFS give it a break why don't you?
    I will when the Tories come clean on what they want to cut.
    For sure it will not be their rich chums
    They do it for the evulz.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    DavidL said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    On Scotterdammerung:

    There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.

    Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?

    This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.

    Interesting times!

    The quality of SLAB MPs and the sort of institutional arrogance that allowed such placemen to become candidates is not the least of the problems they are facing at this election. SLAB have tested the donkey with the rosette theory to destruction. Very few would add much to the generally embarrassing level of debate in the Scottish Parliament.

    Whatever you think of them, people such as Alexander, Curran and Murphy would surely make Labour a stronger, more forceful presence in Holyrood. Like it or not, Labour's big beasts in Scotland need to face up to the fact that's where their futures lie.

    I honestly don't think that Alexander and Curran add anything. The most interesting SLAB MPs for me are Tom Harris and Mark Lazarowicz who, apart from Murphy, may be the only ones to get some sort of personal vote.

    Murphy will face a serious dilemma if he hangs on. Does he stand for the Scottish Parliament and the role of First Minister or does he hang on in Westminster? If Labour have 5 Scottish MPs could they really risk a by election?

    This shows another worrying consequence of the SNP tidal wave. We have got used to a Tory party with minimal Scottish input for nearly 20 years now but Scots have played a very full role in both Labour and the Lib Dems. That is about to change.
    Following my last response to you, it surely does no harm to the Conservatives for the narrative to be that this is neck and neck.
    Maybe. I just wonder what it would have taken for Labour to become completely demoralised to the point more people would have wondered if voting Labour was sensible (it isn't). Yougov have one way or another kept the wheels on the bus to the bitter end.
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Malcolm - while you're around, any thoughts on the 'p.s.' bit in the leader? If the SNP do score as well as the polls report, what would for you be the one definitive image of the night?
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Brooke, not really my area, but isn't there a fair analogy between Sturgeon as a Shogun, and Miliband as a figurehead Emperor?

    I think it's more Nicola = Harry Corbett, Ed = Sooty.
    That's verging into Anna Soubry/Nigel Farage territory.
    It's Scotland , I decided to make a full fist of it.
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    anotherDave said:

    Be interesting to see if the Royals in the news dents the SNP's numbers in Scotland. In theory it should boost positive feelings for unionism.

    LOL, you have to be joking , nobody can be crazy enough to believe that rubbish
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edmundintokyo said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Excellent article Mr Herdson.

    The thing that strikes me as odd about Yougov is the consistency of their polls - surely they should have thrown up one outlier by now?

    Not really, the way they now weight to something highly correlated with current VI, namely Jan/Feb VI, means that their normal MoE is less than the 3% or whatever you' might have expected from their sample size, and relatedly the probability of them randomly getter numbers more than 3% out is less than 5%.
    So about one in twenty.

    We've had 28 YouGovs to date......
    Not 5% (one in twenty), less than 5%. Probably quite a lot less than 5%.
    We're comfortably past 4%......(one in 25)
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    malcolmg said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Brooke, not really my area, but isn't there a fair analogy between Sturgeon as a Shogun, and Miliband as a figurehead Emperor?

    I think it's more Nicola = Harry Corbett, Ed = Sooty.
    Is Ed not more like Sweep
    On this, I'd have to agree with you......
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Excepting royal births, good news tend to get sod all coverage compared to bad news. More progress against Boko Haram maniacs:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-32561052
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    DavidL said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    And here's the split into Phone polls v. Online: https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594264607885254657


    I do think/hope that this chart could prove to be one of the most significant of the election and well done to Sunil for collating it. It shows a consistent and increasing swing to the Tories in the phone polls indicative of a lead by polling day of maybe 4%. This is being masked by Yougov in particular which is showing a swing back to Labour and dragging the average back to flat.

    I don't think anyone can be completely confident about who is right and who is wrong in this polling but one delivers one of David's surprises and one delivers another. In court cases that are not clear cut one of the tests is which side would you rather be on? I think in this case I would rather be on the side of the phones.
    Two of the phone pollsters, ICM and Mori, do not prompt for UKIP. They also produce the lowest UKIP numbers. That seems unlikely to be a coincidence.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9350

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9281
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    Sean_F said:

    malcolmg said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Moses_ said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Cam dodging questions on benefit cuts on the BBC sofa...

    SandyRentool said:

    He seemed to suggest that the cuts will target the disabled.

    As long as they aren't disabled pensioners I suppose.

    Yeah yeah old sick needy... FFS give it a break why don't you?
    I will when the Tories come clean on what they want to cut.
    For sure it will not be their rich chums
    They do it for the evulz.
    Nice one and very true
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    DavidL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well after reading this article, I've just filled in my postal vote.

    My record of voting Tory in every general election that I could vote in remains unbroken


    @patrickwintour: Nick Clegg in Times reopens apparently closed door to a coaliton with Labour, if dependent on SNP. http://t.co/lBaAgP9YR3

    Not easy indulging in this tactical voting stuff is it? Given that the models and pollsters are indicating a 99% probability of the SNP taking Dundee West comfortably I think now I will stick with what I believe. If there had been a hint it was going to be close I would have voted Labour but there isn't.
    I think Ashcroft's constituency poll may end up being responsible for David Mundell losing in D,C&T.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    DavidL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well after reading this article, I've just filled in my postal vote.

    My record of voting Tory in every general election that I could vote in remains unbroken


    @patrickwintour: Nick Clegg in Times reopens apparently closed door to a coaliton with Labour, if dependent on SNP. http://t.co/lBaAgP9YR3

    Not easy indulging in this tactical voting stuff is it? Given that the models and pollsters are indicating a 99% probability of the SNP taking Dundee West comfortably I think now I will stick with what I believe. If there had been a hint it was going to be close I would have voted Labour but there isn't.
    Tactical voting for a party I did not support is not something that I could stomach, though if two parties were equally apealling then I could be swayed.

    I live in a safe seat so can vote as I please. The useless incumbent will be re elected.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    david_herdson said:

    Malcolm - while you're around, any thoughts on the 'p.s.' bit in the leader? If the SNP do score as well as the polls report, what would for you be the one definitive image of the night?

    I'm not sure which would be more poignant - Jim Murphy 'out' or 'last man standing'.....
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    malcolmg said:

    anotherDave said:

    Be interesting to see if the Royals in the news dents the SNP's numbers in Scotland. In theory it should boost positive feelings for unionism.

    LOL, you have to be joking , nobody can be crazy enough to believe that rubbish
    Good morning Malcolm. God Save the Queen.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    david_herdson said:

    Pong said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Another +1 for Scotterdämmerung :)

    I don't get it.

    "dämmerung" is twilight, right?

    so, Scottish twilight. In German. Presumably there's more to it that that, or some cultural/political/historical reference I'm not getting?
    Wagner's Gotterdammerung (the final opera in his Ring cycle) = twilight of the Gods.

    However, it's taken a more general meaning to be the end of any era whereby the previously powerful are overcome, particularly by the efforts of the heroic everyman.

    The inference being that the Scottish political 'gods' i.e. the Labour machine is about to witness its own descent into night. One could argue the literality of the metaphor as after the twilight and the night is a new dawn whereas in both settings, the assumption is that it's permanent. Furthermore, the gods lose their power both through their own actions of selfishness and quarrelling, and through human love rendering the gods redundant. There are enough parallels to make antifrank's creation perfect.
    Not so much Das Rheingold as Die Nordsee-Öl.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Tissue_Price said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well after reading this article, I've just filled in my postal vote.

    My record of voting Tory in every general election that I could vote in remains unbroken


    @patrickwintour: Nick Clegg in Times reopens apparently closed door to a coaliton with Labour, if dependent on SNP. http://t.co/lBaAgP9YR3

    CON GAIN

    NB in June 2016
    Not sure there will be many CON gains when they implode if they lose and veer to the right (again).

    Surely loyalist like David L and TSE on the one nation side of the party will be repulsed by a KIPPER lite party
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    david_herdson said:

    Malcolm - while you're around, any thoughts on the 'p.s.' bit in the leader? If the SNP do score as well as the polls report, what would for you be the one definitive image of the night?

    It would be the clean out of the self serving tribe that SLAB is. They have been like leeches feasting on Scotland for ages, patronising money grabbing no hopers. Anybody would be better than SLAB. Hopefully be a new start.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    anotherDave said:

    DavidL said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    And here's the split into Phone polls v. Online: https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594264607885254657


    I do think/hope that this chart could prove to be one of the most significant of the election and well done to Sunil for collating it. It shows a consistent and increasing swing to the Tories in the phone polls indicative of a lead by polling day of maybe 4%. This is being masked by Yougov in particular which is showing a swing back to Labour and dragging the average back to flat.

    I don't think anyone can be completely confident about who is right and who is wrong in this polling but one delivers one of David's surprises and one delivers another. In court cases that are not clear cut one of the tests is which side would you rather be on? I think in this case I would rather be on the side of the phones.
    Two of the phone pollsters, ICM and Mori, do not prompt for UKIP. They also produce the lowest UKIP numbers. That seems unlikely to be a coincidence.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9350

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9281
    ICM's figure of 7% for UKIP was implausibly low. But, the usual range of 10-13% seems realistic to me. I know enough Con/UKIP floating voters to know that fear of a Labour/SNP government will push some of them back to the Conservatives.

  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    edited May 2015
    CarlottaVance said:

    david_herdson said:

    Malcolm - while you're around, any thoughts on the 'p.s.' bit in the leader? If the SNP do score as well as the polls report, what would for you be the one definitive image of the night?

    I'm not sure which would be more poignant - Jim Murphy 'out' or 'last man standing'.....
    Definitely "OUT" he is one of the worst of them , just behind Alexander and Curran.

    PS , shed load to pick from mind you
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Casino_Royale said:

    DavidL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well after reading this article, I've just filled in my postal vote.

    My record of voting Tory in every general election that I could vote in remains unbroken


    @patrickwintour: Nick Clegg in Times reopens apparently closed door to a coaliton with Labour, if dependent on SNP. http://t.co/lBaAgP9YR3

    Not easy indulging in this tactical voting stuff is it? Given that the models and pollsters are indicating a 99% probability of the SNP taking Dundee West comfortably I think now I will stick with what I believe. If there had been a hint it was going to be close I would have voted Labour but there isn't.
    I think Ashcroft's constituency poll may end up being responsible for David Mundell losing in D,C&T.
    I think he will hang on but it may be the Tories have a better chance next door in Berwickshire.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    anotherDave said:

    DavidL said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    And here's the split into Phone polls v. Online: https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594264607885254657


    I do think/hope that this chart could prove to be one of the most significant of the election and well done to Sunil for collating it. It shows a consistent and increasing swing to the Tories in the phone polls indicative of a lead by polling day of maybe 4%. This is being masked by Yougov in particular which is showing a swing back to Labour and dragging the average back to flat.

    I don't think anyone can be completely confident about who is right and who is wrong in this polling but one delivers one of David's surprises and one delivers another. In court cases that are not clear cut one of the tests is which side would you rather be on? I think in this case I would rather be on the side of the phones.
    Two of the phone pollsters, ICM and Mori, do not prompt for UKIP. They also produce the lowest UKIP numbers. That seems unlikely to be a coincidence.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9350

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9281
    But not necessarily wrong.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the penulimate ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th April Projection) :

    Con 306 (+1) .. Lab 247 (+1) .. LibDem 28 (-2) .. SNP 42 (NC) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Conservatives 20 seats short of a majority

    Turnout Projection .. 67.5% (NC)
    ......................................................................................

    "JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

    Bury North - Con Hold
    Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
    Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
    Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold from TCTC
    Cambridge - LibDem Hold
    Ipswich - Con Hold
    Watford - TCTC
    Croydon Central - Con Hold
    Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain
    Cornwall North - TCTC
    Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
    Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
    Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain

    Changes From 28 Apr - Warwickshire North moves from TCTC to Likely Con Gain

    TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
    Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
    Gain/Hold - Over 2500
    .......................................................................................

    ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
    APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
  • Millsy
    Millsy Posts: 900
    I hope Labour weren't planning any last-minute non-manifesto commitments for tomorrow!
  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Cons Incumbency..as in Dont Rock the Boat..
    LDs..Loss of faith..Tuition fees etc..
    Lab Hamstrung by EDS
    SNP.Nationalist fervour..often dissipates at the ballot Box
    SLAB Hamstrung by the EDs
    UKUP..Woolly..and has an image problem
    Greens..Total fruitcakes.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the penulimate ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th April Projection) :

    Con 306 (+1) .. Lab 247 (+1) .. LibDem 28 (-2) .. SNP 42 (NC) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Would you permit us a peek at your breakdown of the 17 non-SNP Scottish MP's?
  • mitchi
    mitchi Posts: 9
    A frequent poster in the YouGov comments section revealed he ran six YouGov response accounts-3 nominal Con 3 nominal Lab. He is committed left. How many more such people respondon a very frequent basis?
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Sean_F said:

    anotherDave said:

    DavidL said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    And here's the split into Phone polls v. Online: https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594264607885254657


    I do think/hope that this chart could prove to be one of the most significant of the election and well done to Sunil for collating it. It shows a consistent and increasing swing to the Tories in the phone polls indicative of a lead by polling day of maybe 4%. This is being masked by Yougov in particular which is showing a swing back to Labour and dragging the average back to flat.

    I don't think anyone can be completely confident about who is right and who is wrong in this polling but one delivers one of David's surprises and one delivers another. In court cases that are not clear cut one of the tests is which side would you rather be on? I think in this case I would rather be on the side of the phones.
    Two of the phone pollsters, ICM and Mori, do not prompt for UKIP. They also produce the lowest UKIP numbers. That seems unlikely to be a coincidence.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9350

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9281
    ICM's figure of 7% for UKIP was implausibly low. But, the usual range of 10-13% seems realistic to me. I know enough Con/UKIP floating voters to know that fear of a Labour/SNP government will push some of them back to the Conservatives.

    How sound is your Tory candidate in Luton South?
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2015
    DavidL said:

    anotherDave said:

    DavidL said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    And here's the split into Phone polls v. Online: https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594264607885254657


    I do think/hope that this chart could prove to be one of the most significant of the election and well done to Sunil for collating it. It shows a consistent and increasing swing to the Tories in the phone polls indicative of a lead by polling day of maybe 4%. This is being masked by Yougov in particular which is showing a swing back to Labour and dragging the average back to flat.

    I don't think anyone can be completely confident about who is right and who is wrong in this polling but one delivers one of David's surprises and one delivers another. In court cases that are not clear cut one of the tests is which side would you rather be on? I think in this case I would rather be on the side of the phones.
    Two of the phone pollsters, ICM and Mori, do not prompt for UKIP. They also produce the lowest UKIP numbers. That seems unlikely to be a coincidence.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9350

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9281
    But not necessarily wrong.
    Nick Sparrow (ex ICM) wrote on here that not including UKIP in the prompt is basic bad practice. So it seems more likely to produce wrong results than not.

    "The established conventions for question design in market research would be to ask for a spontaneous response, i.e without mentioning any possible choices, or prompt with all the main alternatives.

    By this yardstick it becomes difficult to justify continuing to omit mention of UKIP at least, and arguably other smaller parties as well, as they appear to add up to a choice for almost one in five of those who would vote in a new election."

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/08/07/take-polls-with-large-pinch-of-salt-do-not-consume-in-excess/
  • Bob__Sykes
    Bob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    edited May 2015
    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    Fine Pies (Est 1745)

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
    APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain

    Jack, with the greatest of respect, but why are you persisting with this nonsense?

    You're an established, informed and amusing poster but you're making yourself look very stupid.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    mitchi said:

    A frequent poster in the YouGov comments section revealed he ran six YouGov response accounts-3 nominal Con 3 nominal Lab. He is committed left. How many more such people respondon a very frequent basis?

    Welcome mitchi. Now that is interesting. A certain éminence grise on here used to pretend to YouGov that he was a Sun reader, of course.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    DavidL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well after reading this article, I've just filled in my postal vote.

    My record of voting Tory in every general election that I could vote in remains unbroken


    @patrickwintour: Nick Clegg in Times reopens apparently closed door to a coaliton with Labour, if dependent on SNP. http://t.co/lBaAgP9YR3

    Not easy indulging in this tactical voting stuff is it? Given that the models and pollsters are indicating a 99% probability of the SNP taking Dundee West comfortably I think now I will stick with what I believe. If there had been a hint it was going to be close I would have voted Labour but there isn't.
    It isn't.

    Seems the Lib Dems have spent most of the week doing things to annoy us Tories
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Bob__Sykes said:

    Jack, with the greatest of respect, but why are you persisting with this nonsense?

    You're making yourself look very stupid.

    Less than a week before we resolve the Bob Sykes / JackW debate. I know who my money's on.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Prince Albert is 25/1 with Ladbrokes
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    It is good to see that you have the courage of your convictions Jack and don't indulge in any of that cowardly convergence but for me you have the Tories way too high (30 seats) the Lib Dems too high, Labour and the SNP too low.

    But I hope you are right.
  • mitchi
    mitchi Posts: 9
    Bob__Sykes said:

    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    Fine Pies (Est 1745)

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
    APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain

    Jack, with the greatest of respect, but why are you persisting with this nonsense?

    You're an established, informed and amusing poster but you're making yourself look very stupid.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:

    anotherDave said:

    DavidL said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    And here's the split into Phone polls v. Online: https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594264607885254657


    I do think/hope that this chart could prove to be one of the most significant of the election and well done to Sunil for collating it. It shows a consistent and increasing swing to the Tories in the phone polls indicative of a lead by polling day of maybe 4%. This is being masked by Yougov in particular which is showing a swing back to Labour and dragging the average back to flat.

    I don't think anyone can be completely confident about who is right and who is wrong in this polling but one delivers one of David's surprises and one delivers another. In court cases that are not clear cut one of the tests is which side would you rather be on? I think in this case I would rather be on the side of the phones.
    Two of the phone pollsters, ICM and Mori, do not prompt for UKIP. They also produce the lowest UKIP numbers. That seems unlikely to be a coincidence.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9350

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9281
    ICM's figure of 7% for UKIP was implausibly low. But, the usual range of 10-13% seems realistic to me. I know enough Con/UKIP floating voters to know that fear of a Labour/SNP government will push some of them back to the Conservatives.

    How sound is your Tory candidate in Luton South?
    I know very little about her. The Conservatives aren't making an effort here.
  • mitchi
    mitchi Posts: 9
    I suspect Jack is in the ball park.
    I have Con at 304.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Tissue_Price said:

    mitchi said:

    A frequent poster in the YouGov comments section revealed he ran six YouGov response accounts-3 nominal Con 3 nominal Lab. He is committed left. How many more such people respondon a very frequent basis?

    Welcome mitchi. Now that is interesting. A certain éminence grise on here used to pretend to YouGov that he was a Sun reader, of course.
    Perhaps this explains why YouGov has repeatedly asked me the make, type, age and provenance of my car over the last couple of months.
This discussion has been closed.

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