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Penultimate BJESUS
LAB 2 seats lower than previous BJESUS low Tories 1 below previous BJESUS high LD equal BJESUS low Others 4 higher than previous high.
Since BJESUS started CON/LD stayed remarkably flat LAB/SNP is responsible for virtually all change in BJESUS
Every BJESUS has predicted EICIPM. We will see next week if that was right/wrong.
28.4.15 LAB 288 (292) CON 272(271) LD 29(31) UKIP 2(2) Others 59(54) (Ed is crap is PM)
Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 8 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
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I don't want any new housing built, no demand from me., I like my environment as it is. Disgraceful what the coalition has done with planning laws, surely driven by campaign contributions by developers.Patrick said:
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!DavidL said:
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.Patrick said:
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.Scott_P said:@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate
twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
Oh. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11565524/Housebuilders-hit-by-Ed-Milibands-rent-control-plans.html
Joking apart - the housing issue and the worries / problems of 'generation rent' are a very real issue that all parties shy away from. The 1000 pound throbbing gorilla in the corner is our insane planning laws. The problem of supply and demand can never be resolved until supply is liberalised. We have a huge, huge demand for housing and a gajillion builders / developers ready to build. The problem is that the state has decided to place very very severe restrictions on the supply. We need a 'brave' politician (in the Sir Humphrey sense) to make it very very much easier to obtain planning permission. This would of course collapse the value of land banks and housing. So bad for oldies and existing property owners but great for those who are currently excluded from the property ladder.
Prefer to see demand tackled by taxing away foreign investor demand and enforcing immigration laws. All those 'luxury' flats are driven by foreign investors not locals desiring modest houses.0 -
Favellas and shanty towns are the future.JosiasJessop said:
Planning laws are a problem, but not one of the major ones. A big problem is the sort of homes we culturally want: generally the 'ideal' for many people is a detached house with nice garden (preferably front and back), and a garage with two or three parking space outside. Such houses swallow up available land.Patrick said:
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!DavidL said:
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.Patrick said:
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.Scott_P said:@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate
twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
Oh. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11565524/Housebuilders-hit-by-Ed-Milibands-rent-control-plans.html
Joking apart - the housing issue and the worries / problems of 'generation rent' are a very real issue that all parties shy away from. The 1000 pound throbbing gorilla in the corner is our insane planning laws. The problem of supply and demand can never be resolved until supply is liberalised. We have a huge, huge demand for housing and a gajillion builders / developers ready to build. The problem is that the state has decided to place very very severe restrictions on the supply. We need a 'brave' politician (in the Sir Humphrey sense) to make it very very much easier to obtain planning permission. This would of course collapse the value of land banks and housing. So bad for oldies and existing property owners but great for those who are currently excluded from the property ladder.
Sadly the nightmarish developments built in the 1960s and 1970s hurt the public image of high-rise housing. This is improving, but too slowly. If you want people to live anywhere near the centre of any city, it has to be high-rise. But we should not repeat the mistakes of the past.
We should also get over this obsession with tractor-statting house build numbers, and instead concentrate on building communities.0 -
You can say that again! Dale rates Danny Alexander's Inverness seat as being "a dead cert hold for the LiDems. The bookies on the other hand will give you odds of 7/1 against him holding onto it and 1/6 on an SNP gain.rcs1000 said:
This was the first of the LibDems seats in his list of predicted results ...... needless to say I didn't get any further.0 -
You are right. Even worse will be the loss of third party status to the SNP. The Lib Dems have really struggled to be heard in this election. It is a shadow of things to come. 2010 and the Cleggasm seems a far away country.timmo said:
What is interesting for the LibDems now is how the expectations part of the news management has kicked in already. By saying they will get top whack 35 seats if they then get only 25 it isnt that horrendous,whereas if you look at where they have come from it really is horrendous.DavidL said:
I would say not. Firstly, he is not very good. Secondly, the Lib Dem party is going to be a lot more English after these elections. The Scottish lib Dems are going to lose about 90% of their seats and all of their old grandees who have dominated the party for so long.DecrepitJohnL said:
If Carmichael does crawl from the wreckage, is he worth a punt at around 20/1 for next LibDem leader?DavidL said:
I think Thurso will hold on. And maybe Charlie although that seems less likely now. Carmichael is safe. After that I really struggle.Pulpstar said:
line.DavidL said:
I still think they will be left with no Scottish seats south of Inverness. I have been saying this for months and I have not seen anything in the polling indicating otherwise.JackW said:
This Guardian piece is broadly in line with reports I'm receiving, albeit not quite so rosy for the yellow peril but certainly better than the raw Scottish polling would suggest.DavidL said:
Charlie looks terrible in that photograph. Its a real shame. The party admitting that he is in trouble in his seat doesn't exactly help either.AndyJS said:LDs upbeat about their chances in Scotland:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/27/lib-dems-ramp-up-scottish-campaign-after-polling-data-boost
secretary."
Curious that Moore's seat does not seem to be one of those getting the additional resources. Maybe just didn't fit with the narrative to announce it.
Moore's seat hasn't received extra resources because it was already in the top tier.
If overall losses are just over 50% the complexion of the party will have changed. It seems to me that the Lib Dems are going to lose most of their Celtic connections with major losses in the south west as well. What remains will choose one of their own.0 -
It's still pretty low compared to most other cities of its stature.DecrepitJohnL said:
As rcs1000 says, we are seeing more of this, though generally aimed at the affluent buyer. In the past, tower blocks have been associated with social problems. But as to population density, London already has the highest in Britain, and it would be higher still were it not for our parks.Patrick said:
As Antifrank pointed out recently, London has 3 dimensions and we only really use two of them. For such a large city London has an amazingly low population density. If there is such huge demand for affordable flats in London then let's build upwards. We allow any number of huge skyscrpaers for business - just look at how the London skyline has changed in recent years. Allowing the same for residential property would be a sensible thing IMHO.DecrepitJohnL said:
Short of sticking up skyscrapers in Hyde Park, how would that work in central London?Patrick said:
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!DavidL said:
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.Patrick said:
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.Scott_P said:@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate
twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
Oh. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11565524/Housebuilders-hit-by-Ed-Milibands-rent-control-plans.html
[snipped for length]
One actual gorilla is subsidies for landlords, aka housing benefits.
The density of Islington, which is the highest in the UK, is 13,886 per square kilometer.
Manhattan, even though a huge amount of the space is offices and Central Park takes up the entire centre of the island, is 25,846/km2.
Kwun Tong in Hong King is 57,120/km2.
If the UK had the same density of Kwun Tong the entire population would fit in a square of 20 miles by 20 miles.0 -
A visual representation of London's density of population (or lack):DecrepitJohnL said:
As rcs1000 says, we are seeing more of this, though generally aimed at the affluent buyer. In the past, tower blocks have been associated with social problems. But as to population density, London already has the highest in Britain, and it would be higher still were it not for our parks.Patrick said:
As Antifrank pointed out recently, London has 3 dimensions and we only really use two of them. For such a large city London has an amazingly low population density. If there is such huge demand for affordable flats in London then let's build upwards. We allow any number of huge skyscrpaers for business - just look at how the London skyline has changed in recent years. Allowing the same for residential property would be a sensible thing IMHO.DecrepitJohnL said:
Short of sticking up skyscrapers in Hyde Park, how would that work in central London?Patrick said:
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!DavidL said:
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.Patrick said:
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.Scott_P said:@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate
twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
Oh. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11565524/Housebuilders-hit-by-Ed-Milibands-rent-control-plans.html
[snipped for length]
One actual gorilla is subsidies for landlords, aka housing benefits.
http://files.lsecities.net/files/2011/11/2011_chw_2050_01.gif0 -
O/T In other news we could be on the verge of a major diplomatic off between Australia and Indonesia in around 9 hours when it is believed the Bali 9 will be executed including 2 Australians.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/bali-nine-executions-live-updates-as-australia-tries-to-save-two-convicts-from-firing-squad-10206252.html0 -
I'm on him at 20/1. He has previously said he doesn't want the job, though.DecrepitJohnL said:
If Carmichael does crawl from the wreckage, is he worth a punt at around 20/1 for next LibDem leader?DavidL said:
I think Thurso will hold on. And maybe Charlie although that seems less likely now. Carmichael is safe. After that I really struggle.Pulpstar said:
@Dair of this parish did mention that he thought Thurso has the only genuine personal vote in Scottish politics so perhaps not out the question. I'll be very surprised to collect the slightly larger profit I have on the Lib Dems there, mind. Mike Crockhart of Edinburgh West is intriguingly poised on the models too, a touch of tactical voting could see him over the line.DavidL said:
I still think they will be left with no Scottish seats south of Inverness. I have been saying this for months and I have not seen anything in the polling indicating otherwise.JackW said:
This Guardian piece is broadly in line with reports I'm receiving, albeit not quite so rosy for the yellow peril but certainly better than the raw Scottish polling would suggest.DavidL said:
Charlie looks terrible in that photograph. Its a real shame. The party admitting that he is in trouble in his seat doesn't exactly help either.AndyJS said:LDs upbeat about their chances in Scotland:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/27/lib-dems-ramp-up-scottish-campaign-after-polling-data-boost
"The private polling data and canvassing returns suggest the party is in the lead in several constituencies including East Dunbartonshire, being defended by Jo Swinson, and West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, which is held by Sir Robert Smith.
At least five more seats where the Lib Dems are fighting to overturn an SNP lead, including Edinburgh West, Argyll & Bute and Inverness, could be held because of an upsurge in tactical voting by pro-UK party supporters, the party believes.
The Lib Dems also expect to hold Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, which is the most northerly seat on the UK mainland and being defended by John Thurso, as well as Orkney and Shetland just to the north, one of the party’s safest, held by Alistair Carmichael, the Scotland secretary."
Curious that Moore's seat does not seem to be one of those getting the additional resources. Maybe just didn't fit with the narrative to announce it.
Moore's seat hasn't received extra resources because it was already in the top tier.0 -
TAUNTON DEANErcs1000 said:
Jeremy Browne
Maj: 3,993 over the Conservatives
Prediction: POSSIBLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN – 50/50
Boundary changes last time increased Browne’s majority from just over 500. I don’t know how popular he is locally. Seen as a very good minister it was a shock when he was sacked by Clegg. Might he stand down? I’d say this was a 50/50 call.
GORDON
Sir Malcolm Bruce (retiring – Christine Jardine selected
Maj: 6,748 over the SNP
Prediction: 100% LIBDEM HOLD
NORTH EAST FIFE
Sir Menzies Campbell (retiring)
Maj: 9.348
Prediction: LIBDEM HOLD
The Conservatives will be targeting this seat but it’s a remote hope for them. The new LibDem candidate may suffer a dent in their majority but unless Ming Campbell’s personal vote is more than the norm, this seat should stay Liberal Democrat.
EDINBURGH WEST
Michael Crockart
Maj: 3,803
Prediction: PROBABLE LIBDEM HOLD
This seat went LibDem in 1997 and although the LibDem majority plummeted by 10,000 last time it is difficult to see them losing. Prior to 1997 it was a Tory seat but last time Labour beat the Tories into second place. A Labour victory is not impossible to imagine, but still rather unlikely.
BERMONDSEY & OLD SOUTHWARK
Simon Hughes
Maj: 8,530
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD
No comment needed.
ROSS, SKYE AND LOCHABER
Charles Kennedy
Maj: 13,070
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD
Out on his own, and despite an invisible presence in this Parliament, there would need to be a miracle to shift Charles Kennedy.
EASTBOURNE
Stephen Lloyd
Maj: 3.435
Prediction: PROBABLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Won in 2010 from Nigel Wateson, Steohen Lloyd may hang on, but I’d expect the Labour vote to at least double at the expense of the LibDems, so yet again, a lot depends on how many votes the Tories lose to UKIP.
WEST ABERDEENSHIRE & KINCARDINE
Sir Robert Smith
Maj: 3.684
Prediction: PROBABLE LIBDEM HOLD
Although the LibDem majority was halved last time, it’s difficult to see anything other than another victory for Sir Robert Smith.
EAST DUNBARTONSHIRE
Jo Swinson
Maj: 2,184
Prediction: LABOUR GAIN
Jo Swinson is popular but all the political portents are against her. She will be a major loss to the LibDems.
BRADFORD EAST
David Ward
Maj: 365
Prediction: DEAD CERT LABOUR GAIN
One of the nastier LibDem MPs, few will shed tears at his demise.
CEREDIGION
Mark Williams
Maj: 8,324
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD
BRISTOL WEST
Stephen Williams
Maj: 11.336
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD0 -
Yes: all our problems can be solved by taking away the freedom of people to build houses.FalseFlag said:
I don't want any new housing built, no demand from me., I like my environment as it is. Disgraceful what the coalition has done with planning laws, surely driven by campaign contributions by developers.Patrick said:
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!DavidL said:
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.Patrick said:
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.Scott_P said:@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate
twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
Oh. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11565524/Housebuilders-hit-by-Ed-Milibands-rent-control-plans.html
Joking apart - the housing issue and the worries / problems of 'generation rent' are a very real issue that all parties shy away from. The 1000 pound throbbing gorilla in the corner is our insane planning laws. The problem of supply and demand can never be resolved until supply is liberalised. We have a huge, huge demand for housing and a gajillion builders / developers ready to build. The problem is that the state has decided to place very very severe restrictions on the supply. We need a 'brave' politician (in the Sir Humphrey sense) to make it very very much easier to obtain planning permission. This would of course collapse the value of land banks and housing. So bad for oldies and existing property owners but great for those who are currently excluded from the property ladder.
Prefer to see demand tackled by taxing away foreign investor demand and enforcing immigration laws. All those 'luxury' flats are driven by foreign investors not locals desiring modest houses.
Unspoofable.0 -
Thats maybe not a good thing though is it. We 'could' of course have a much higher population density. Wether its wanted or desireable is another matter.rcs1000 said:
It's still pretty low compared to most other cities of its stature.DecrepitJohnL said:
As rcs1000 says, we are seeing more of this, though generally aimed at the affluent buyer. In the past, tower blocks have been associated with social problems. But as to population density, London already has the highest in Britain, and it would be higher still were it not for our parks.Patrick said:
As Antifrank pointed out recently, London has 3 dimensions and we only really use two of them. For such a large city London has an amazingly low population density. If there is such huge demand for affordable flats in London then let's build upwards. We allow any number of huge skyscrpaers for business - just look at how the London skyline has changed in recent years. Allowing the same for residential property would be a sensible thing IMHO.DecrepitJohnL said:
Short of sticking up skyscrapers in Hyde Park, how would that work in central London?Patrick said:
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!DavidL said:
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.Patrick said:
.Scott_P said:@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate
twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
Oh. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11565524/Housebuilders-hit-by-Ed-Milibands-rent-control-plans.html
[snipped for length]
One actual gorilla is subsidies for landlords, aka housing benefits.
The density of Islington, which is the highest in the UK, is 13,886 per square kilometer.
Manhattan, even though a huge amount of the space is offices and Central Park takes up the entire centre of the island, is 25,846/km2.
Kwun Tong in Hong King is 57,120/km2.
If the UK had the same density of Kwun Tong the entire population would fit in a square of 20 miles by 20 miles.
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If you've followed Iain Dale with those tips errm... best of luck !
He's even managed to get some Lib Dem possible holds in the loss column.0 -
That's a fscinating graphic! Thanks. Conforms just how relatively low rise London is. In fact the whole of the UK is still well over 90% green fields. Even outside the Green Belt. We do actually have alot of land to build on. We just choose not to.antifrank said:
A visual representation of London's density of population (or lack):DecrepitJohnL said:
As rcs1000 says, we are seeing more of this, though generally aimed at the affluent buyer. In the past, tower blocks have been associated with social problems. But as to population density, London already has the highest in Britain, and it would be higher still were it not for our parks.Patrick said:
As Antifrank pointed out recently, London has 3 dimensions and we only really use two of them. For such a large city London has an amazingly low population density. If there is such huge demand for affordable flats in London then let's build upwards. We allow any number of huge skyscrpaers for business - just look at how the London skyline has changed in recent years. Allowing the same for residential property would be a sensible thing IMHO.DecrepitJohnL said:
Short of sticking up skyscrapers in Hyde Park, how would that work in central London?Patrick said:
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!DavidL said:
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.Patrick said:
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.Scott_P said:@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate
twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
Oh. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11565524/Housebuilders-hit-by-Ed-Milibands-rent-control-plans.html
[snipped for length]
One actual gorilla is subsidies for landlords, aka housing benefits.
http://files.lsecities.net/files/2011/11/2011_chw_2050_01.gif0 -
Wrong .... and then some ....bigjohnowls said:Since BJESUS started CON/LD stayed remarkably flat LAB/SNP is responsible for virtually all change in BJESUS
Every BJESUS has predicted EICIPM. We will see next week if that was right/wrong.
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I'm just making a comparison :-)Slackbladder said:
Thats maybe not a good thing though is it. We 'could' of course have a much higher population density. Wether its wanted or desireable is another matter.rcs1000 said:
It's still pretty low compared to most other cities of its stature.DecrepitJohnL said:
As rcs1000 says, we are seeing more of this, though generally aimed at the affluent buyer. In the past, tower blocks have been associated with social problems. But as to population density, London already has the highest in Britain, and it would be higher still were it not for our parks.Patrick said:
As Antifrank pointed out recently, London has 3 dimensions and we only really use two of them. For such a large city London has an amazingly low population density. If there is such huge demand for affordable flats in London then let's build upwards. We allow any number of huge skyscrpaers for business - just look at how the London skyline has changed in recent years. Allowing the same for residential property would be a sensible thing IMHO.DecrepitJohnL said:
Short of sticking up skyscrapers in Hyde Park, how would that work in central London?Patrick said:
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!DavidL said:
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.Patrick said:
.Scott_P said:@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate
twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
Oh. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11565524/Housebuilders-hit-by-Ed-Milibands-rent-control-plans.html
[snipped for length]
One actual gorilla is subsidies for landlords, aka housing benefits.
The density of Islington, which is the highest in the UK, is 13,886 per square kilometer.
Manhattan, even though a huge amount of the space is offices and Central Park takes up the entire centre of the island, is 25,846/km2.
Kwun Tong in Hong King is 57,120/km2.
If the UK had the same density of Kwun Tong the entire population would fit in a square of 20 miles by 20 miles.0 -
I post this purely for the sake of completeness
CAN YOU GUESS WHO OUR PAGE 3 GIRLS ARE VOTING FOR? TAKE OUR REVEALING QUIZ TO FIND OUT…
http://bit.ly/1z8zf0S0 -
I've long been of the opinion that we will see the vote share of around 36CON 32LAB and that will translate to something like 280CON 265LAB - give or take 5 seats depending on the LD/SNP totals.
Pretty much gives neither party an easy route to govern.
I think there remains the possibility of a 1% swing either way (more likely to the blues given the momentum and SNP situation)
I also think the tories could still spook another 1% from the blue kipper contingent if they press hard on UKIP votes translating into a LAB gov.
Turnout, voter apathy and the re-registration process are the unknown factors and could still impact massively.0 -
As Farage pointed out in the BBC debate vs assorted student lefties
John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul)
27/04/2015 21:32
Rumour that Labour's 7th pledge will be to repeal the law of supply and demand. pic.twitter.com/tNlaZwqXX60 -
i'm not sure that saying London should be more like Mexico city or Sao Paulo is a great arguement.Patrick said:
That's a fscinating graphic! Thanks. Conforms just how relatively low rise London is. In fact the whole of the UK is still well over 90% green fields. Even outside the Green Belt. We do actually have alot of land to build on. We just choose not to.antifrank said:
A visual representation of London's density of population (or lack):DecrepitJohnL said:
As rcs1000 says, we are seeing more of this, though generally aimed at the affluent buyer. In the past, tower blocks have been associated with social problems. But as to population density, London already has the highest in Britain, and it would be higher still were it not for our parks.Patrick said:
As Antifrank pointed out recently, London has 3 dimensions and we only really use two of them. For such a large city London has an amazingly low population density. If there is such huge demand for affordable flats in London then let's build upwards. We allow any number of huge skyscrpaers for business - just look at how the London skyline has changed in recent years. Allowing the same for residential property would be a sensible thing IMHO.DecrepitJohnL said:
Short of sticking up skyscrapers in Hyde Park, how would that work in central London?Patrick said:
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!DavidL said:
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.Patrick said:
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.Scott_P said:@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate
twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
Oh. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11565524/Housebuilders-hit-by-Ed-Milibands-rent-control-plans.html
[snipped for length]
One actual gorilla is subsidies for landlords, aka housing benefits.
http://files.lsecities.net/files/2011/11/2011_chw_2050_01.gif0 -
There is forecasting and then there is my ARSE.rcs1000 said:
Yes, it's monumentally poor forecasting.Pulpstar said:If you've followed Iain Dale with those tips errm... best of luck !
He's even managed to get some Lib Dem possible holds in the loss column.
They should how Ceridgion, mind, although I'm on PC at 3-1.
0 -
I think the LibDems will hold Ceredigion, with a sharply reduced majority.rcs1000 said:
Yes, it's monumentally poor forecasting.Pulpstar said:If you've followed Iain Dale with those tips errm... best of luck !
He's even managed to get some Lib Dem possible holds in the loss column.
They should hold Ceridgion, mind, although I'm on PC at 3-1.
The Labour and Plaid Cymru candidates both emerged damaged from their rather unseemly spat over Tippex and English settlers.0 -
Quite some change in Stephen Fisher's latest forecast this morning, compared with his corresponding seat allocations just last Friday:
Con 291 (+5 compared with 24 April), Lab 258 (-5), LibDems 25 (-1), SNP 53 (+2), Others 25 (-1)0 -
Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :
22 minutes 22 seconds0 -
As I say we will see whether EICIPM or EMWNBPM is the outcome in 9 days time.JackW said:
Wrong .... and then some ....bigjohnowls said:Since BJESUS started CON/LD stayed remarkably flat LAB/SNP is responsible for virtually all change in BJESUS
Every BJESUS has predicted EICIPM. We will see next week if that was right/wrong.
Betfair has the former as slight favorite but looks like being close thanks to SLP collapse.
I see ARSE has SNP less than 40 seats LAB circa 240 seats I cant see how that would be possible myself but we will see.0 -
@GadflyMillsy said:
Yeah the polls are anything but constant, it depends which polls you choose to believeGadfly said:Telephone polls vs YouGov polls since 01 January 2015.
Please could you insert a vertical line on the YG polls which shows the date of methodology change as this would be most helpful.0 -
Con+Lib 316peter_from_putney said:Quite some change in Stephen Fisher's latest forecast this morning, compared with his corresponding seat allocations just last Friday:
Con 291 (+5 compared with 24 April), Lab 258 (-5), LibDems 25 (-1), SNP 53 (+2), Others 25 (-1)
Lab+SNP 311
That would be entertaining.....0 -
The rent control and bombing wasn't a quip. It is a genuine conclusion from a Swedish economist, Assar Lindbeck. Ed M claimed at the weekend that he had read his book.JosiasJessop said:
Planning laws are a problem, but not one of the major ones. A big problem is the sort of homes we culturally want: generally the 'ideal' for many people is a detached house with nice garden (preferably front and back), and a garage with two or three parking space outside. Such houses swallow up available land.Patrick said:
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!DavidL said:
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.Patrick said:
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.Scott_P said:@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate
twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
Oh. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11565524/Housebuilders-hit-by-Ed-Milibands-rent-control-plans.html
snip .
Sadly the nightmarish developments built in the 1960s and 1970s hurt the public image of high-rise housing. This is improving, but too slowly. If you want people to live anywhere near the centre of any city, it has to be high-rise. But we should not repeat the mistakes of the past.
We should also get over this obsession with tractor-statting house build numbers, and instead concentrate on building communities.
http://www.adamsmith.org/blog/planning-transport/only-bombing-would-be-worse-than-rent-control/0 -
peter_from_putney said:
Quite some change in Stephen Fisher's latest forecast this morning, compared with his corresponding seat allocations just last Friday:
Con 291 (+5 compared with 24 April), Lab 258 (-5), LibDems 25 (-1), SNP 53 (+2), Others 25 (-1)
Yet another "forecaster" trending toward a close association with my ARSE.peter_from_putney said:Quite some change in Stephen Fisher's latest forecast this morning, compared with his corresponding seat allocations just last Friday:
Con 291 (+5 compared with 24 April), Lab 258 (-5), LibDems 25 (-1), SNP 53 (+2), Others 25 (-1)
0 -
On topic, why wouldn't the normal outlier rules apply to an out-of-character poll from a single pollster? The last notable case would be 'that' Yougov poll before the indy referendum; afaicr the actual result was much closer to the average of Yougov polls over those 2-3 months.
Still, we got a nice, shiny Vow out of it, nationalism killed stone dead yet again.0 -
Can someone tell me why on earth Miliband is courting Russell Brand?
0 -
Bizarre. That's one of the rare occasions when using a scantily clad woman in an advert is entirely justifiable. Have we really reached the point when encouraging people to buy a product to be fitter is offensive?Roger said:0 -
To get his endorsement.Slackbladder said:Can someone tell me why on earth Miliband is courting Russell Brand?
The Lab voters who have switched to the Greens might come back after that endorsement0 -
We like low rise and we like green fields.Patrick said:
That's a fscinating graphic! Thanks. Conforms just how relatively low rise London is. In fact the whole of the UK is still well over 90% green fields. Even outside the Green Belt. We do actually have alot of land to build on. We just choose not to.antifrank said:
A visual representation of London's density of population (or lack):DecrepitJohnL said:
As rcs1000 says, we are seeing more of this, though generally aimed at the affluent buyer. In the past, tower blocks have been associated with social problems. But as to population density, London already has the highest in Britain, and it would be higher still were it not for our parks.Patrick said:
As Antifrank pointed out recently, London has 3 dimensions and we only really use two of them. For such a large city London has an amazingly low population density. If there is such huge demand for affordable flats in London then let's build upwards. We allow any number of huge skyscrpaers for business - just look at how the London skyline has changed in recent years. Allowing the same for residential property would be a sensible thing IMHO.DecrepitJohnL said:
Short of sticking up skyscrapers in Hyde Park, how would that work in central London?Patrick said:
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!DavidL said:
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.Patrick said:
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.Scott_P said:@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate
twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
Oh. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11565524/Housebuilders-hit-by-Ed-Milibands-rent-control-plans.html
[snipped for length]
One actual gorilla is subsidies for landlords, aka housing benefits.
http://files.lsecities.net/files/2011/11/2011_chw_2050_01.gif0 -
You may say that Jack, but we wait with bated breath!JackW said:peter_from_putney said:Quite some change in Stephen Fisher's latest forecast this morning, compared with his corresponding seat allocations just last Friday:
Con 291 (+5 compared with 24 April), Lab 258 (-5), LibDems 25 (-1), SNP 53 (+2), Others 25 (-1)
Yet another "forecaster" trending toward a close association with my ARSE.peter_from_putney said:Quite some change in Stephen Fisher's latest forecast this morning, compared with his corresponding seat allocations just last Friday:
Con 291 (+5 compared with 24 April), Lab 258 (-5), LibDems 25 (-1), SNP 53 (+2), Others 25 (-1)0 -
Favellas and shanty towns are one solution.rcs1000 said:
Yes: all our problems can be solved by taking away the freedom of people to build houses.FalseFlag said:
I don't want any new housing built, no demand from me., I like my environment as it is. Disgraceful what the coalition has done with planning laws, surely driven by campaign contributions by developers.Patrick said:
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!DavidL said:
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.Patrick said:
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.Scott_P said:@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate
twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
Oh. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11565524/Housebuilders-hit-by-Ed-Milibands-rent-control-plans.html
Joking apart - the housing issue and the worries / problems of 'generation rent' are a very real issue that all parties shy away from. The 1000 pound throbbing gorilla in the corner is our insane planning laws. The problem of supply and demand can never be resolved until supply is liberalised. We have a huge, huge demand for housing and a gajillion builders / developers ready to build. The problem is that the state has decided to place very very severe restrictions on the supply. We need a 'brave' politician (in the Sir Humphrey sense) to make it very very much easier to obtain planning permission. This would of course collapse the value of land banks and housing. So bad for oldies and existing property owners but great for those who are currently excluded from the property ladder.
Prefer to see demand tackled by taxing away foreign investor demand and enforcing immigration laws. All those 'luxury' flats are driven by foreign investors not locals desiring modest houses.
Unspoofable.0 -
Lisbon and Porto are great cities, but the baleful effects of rent controls on the centres of both cities is sadly abundantly clear.rottenborough said:
The rent control and bombing wasn't a quip. It is a genuine conclusion from a Swedish economist, Assar Lindbeck. Ed M claimed at the weekend that he had read his book.JosiasJessop said:
Planning laws are a problem, but not one of the major ones. A big problem is the sort of homes we culturally want: generally the 'ideal' for many people is a detached house with nice garden (preferably front and back), and a garage with two or three parking space outside. Such houses swallow up available land.Patrick said:
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!DavidL said:
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.Patrick said:
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.Scott_P said:@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate
twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
Oh. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11565524/Housebuilders-hit-by-Ed-Milibands-rent-control-plans.html
snip .
Sadly the nightmarish developments built in the 1960s and 1970s hurt the public image of high-rise housing. This is improving, but too slowly. If you want people to live anywhere near the centre of any city, it has to be high-rise. But we should not repeat the mistakes of the past.
We should also get over this obsession with tractor-statting house build numbers, and instead concentrate on building communities.
http://www.adamsmith.org/blog/planning-transport/only-bombing-would-be-worse-than-rent-control/
0 -
Russell wants tips on how to pull Ms Flanders?Slackbladder said:
Can someone tell me why on earth Miliband is courting Russell Brand?
0 -
I regret to advise you old thing that you are simply faltering in the wake of my ARSE.bigjohnowls said:
As I say we will see whether EICIPM or EMWNBPM is the outcome in 9 days time.JackW said:
Wrong .... and then some ....bigjohnowls said:Since BJESUS started CON/LD stayed remarkably flat LAB/SNP is responsible for virtually all change in BJESUS
Every BJESUS has predicted EICIPM. We will see next week if that was right/wrong.
Betfair has the former as slight favorite but looks like being close thanks to SLP collapse.
I see ARSE has SNP less than 40 seats LAB circa 240 seats I cant see how that would be possible myself but we will see.
Like many others before you who fall by the wayside as the tide from my ARSE overwhelms them in a torrent of forecasting brilliance that will not allow even a pale and wretchedly lacklustre imitation to share even a scrap of the limelight and acclaim.
0 -
I'd rather your breath wasn't overly close to my ARSE.peter_from_putney said:
You may say that Jack, but we wait with bated breath!JackW said:peter_from_putney said:Quite some change in Stephen Fisher's latest forecast this morning, compared with his corresponding seat allocations just last Friday:
Con 291 (+5 compared with 24 April), Lab 258 (-5), LibDems 25 (-1), SNP 53 (+2), Others 25 (-1)
Yet another "forecaster" trending toward a close association with my ARSE.peter_from_putney said:Quite some change in Stephen Fisher's latest forecast this morning, compared with his corresponding seat allocations just last Friday:
Con 291 (+5 compared with 24 April), Lab 258 (-5), LibDems 25 (-1), SNP 53 (+2), Others 25 (-1)
0 -
-
Allegedly, Victoria Ayling, asked the following question during a local debate:
"What happens when the renewable energy runs out?"0 -
Ah, so you've been to Bar Hill. ;-)FalseFlag said:Favellas and shanty towns are the future.
0 -
Really?/ He's even more of an idiot than I thought.TheScreamingEagles said:
To get his endorsement.Slackbladder said:Can someone tell me why on earth Miliband is courting Russell Brand?
The Lab voters who have switched to the Greens might come back after that endorsement
0 -
Is that the 'I wouldn't vote Russell Brand?'Slackbladder said:Can someone tell me why on earth Miliband is courting Russell Brand?
I wonder if he will promote little Eddy Weddy and his little Bookie Wookie at the same time. I know I'm not in the target demographic, but the word tosser comes to mind. Apply as you see fit.
Very few posters or stickers here in North Herts, the LibDem and Con ones normally on display are absent. The most obvious (and only one I remember seeing) is a Green Party banner, located in a very desirable mansion tax eligible location.0 -
One faith based ideology lacking no scientific basis gets the backing of another?logical_song said:
*Innocent Face*0 -
A Dacha in the Birch Forest, and the Steppe stretching into the distance is all rather beautiful. I can see why you want to keep it that way.FalseFlag said:
I don't want any new housing built, no demand from me., I like my environment as it is. Disgraceful what the coalition has done with planning laws, surely driven by campaign contributions by developers.Patrick said:
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!DavidL said:
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.Patrick said:
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.Scott_P said:@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate
twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
Oh. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11565524/Housebuilders-hit-by-Ed-Milibands-rent-control-plans.html
Joking apart - the housing issue and the worries / problems of 'generation rent' are a very real issue that all parties shy away from. The 1000 pound throbbing gorilla in the corner is our insane planning laws. The problem of supply and demand can never be resolved until supply is liberalised. We have a huge, huge demand for housing and a gajillion builders / developers ready to build. The problem is that the state has decided to place very very severe restrictions on the supply. We need a 'brave' politician (in the Sir Humphrey sense) to make it very very much easier to obtain planning permission. This would of course collapse the value of land banks and housing. So bad for oldies and existing property owners but great for those who are currently excluded from the property ladder.
Prefer to see demand tackled by taxing away foreign investor demand and enforcing immigration laws. All those 'luxury' flats are driven by foreign investors not locals desiring modest houses.
0 -
No problem. Click to enlarge...Financier said:
@GadflyMillsy said:
Yeah the polls are anything but constant, it depends which polls you choose to believeGadfly said:Telephone polls vs YouGov polls since 01 January 2015.
Please could you insert a vertical line on the YG polls which shows the date of methodology change as this would be most helpful.
0 -
Mr. Antifrank, not familiar with the advert, but some people will bitch about anything. Being offended is very fashionable.0
-
Every vote counts.Slackbladder said:
Really?/ He's even more of an idiot than I thought.TheScreamingEagles said:
To get his endorsement.Slackbladder said:Can someone tell me why on earth Miliband is courting Russell Brand?
The Lab voters who have switched to the Greens might come back after that endorsement0 -
Beds in sheds. Thankfully Slough council etc. acted in the public interest and cracked down on that trend, supposedly.rcs1000 said:
Clearly, allowing people to build property on land they own is going to create shanty towns and favellas.FalseFlag said:Favellas and shanty towns are one solution.
Obviously.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2052051/Suburban-slumdogs-Scores-desperate-migrants-crammed-shanty-town-sheds-garages-ruthless-landlords-No-Mumbai--London.html0 -
Mr. Eagles, God's a hypocrite. The burning bush clearly contributed to carbon emissions.0
-
Can only speak as I have found from people I know in here Essex...Slackbladder said:Can someone tell me why on earth Miliband is courting Russell Brand?
Girls swoon over him and think he is v clever
Men think he is a total prick
But he prob could help with the female lefty vote a la yesterday's thread0 -
GDP numbers due in 31 minutes!0
-
You can bet some people blamed the Great Flood on global warming.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, God's a hypocrite. The burning bush clearly contributed to carbon emissions.
0 -
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 25th April Projection) :
Con 305 (+1) .. Lab 246 (-3) .. LibDem 30 (NC) .. SNP 42 (+2) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 21 seats short of a majority
Turnout Projection .. 67.5% (NC)
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - TCTC
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Con Hold
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Con Hold
Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 25 Apr - No Change.
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain0 -
I forecast third last week. Glad to see Ashcroft is in line with that.rcs1000 said:Allegedly, Victoria Ayling, asked the following question during a local debate:
"What happens when the renewable energy runs out?"
On another point. As London becomes less English, I suspect that both European and non EU migrants are less obsessed with houses as opposed to apartments. There may not be the objection to building up that yhere once was, particularly if good quality. Not many keen gardners out there in the next generation either.0 -
EICWNBPMJackW said:BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 25th April Projection) :
Con 305 (+1) .. Lab 246 (-3) .. LibDem 30 (NC) .. SNP 42 (+2) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 21 seats short of a majority
0 -
The GE as a whole just seems very very low-key I feel. 5 years agao it was all Cleggasm and the debates, whereas this time.....philiph said:
Is that the 'I wouldn't vote Russell Brand?'Slackbladder said:Can someone tell me why on earth Miliband is courting Russell Brand?
I wonder if he will promote little Eddy Weddy and his little Bookie Wookie at the same time. I know I'm not in the target demographic, but the word tosser comes to mind. Apply as you see fit.
Very few posters or stickers here in North Herts, the LibDem and Con ones normally on display are absent. The most obvious (and only one I remember seeing) is a Green Party banner, located in a very desirable mansion tax eligible location.0 -
Willing buyer. Willing seller.FalseFlag said:
Beds in sheds. Thankfully Slough council etc. acted in the public interest and cracked down on that trend, supposedly.rcs1000 said:
Clearly, allowing people to build property on land they own is going to create shanty towns and favellas.FalseFlag said:Favellas and shanty towns are one solution.
Obviously.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2052051/Suburban-slumdogs-Scores-desperate-migrants-crammed-shanty-town-sheds-garages-ruthless-landlords-No-Mumbai--London.html
But hey, you know best.0 -
Why is Ed Balls trending today?
0 -
My youngest worked with him on a film, she had never met him before and he insisted on a cup of tea and a chat before the scene was filmed. She said he was a total gentleman, she had been told by the make up girls to ignore all the stories about him as he is a nice bloke to work with, my daughter liked him as a person.isam said:
Can only speak as I have found from people I know in here Essex...Slackbladder said:Can someone tell me why on earth Miliband is courting Russell Brand?
Girls swoon over him and think he is v clever
Men think he is a total prick
But he prob could help with the female lefty vote a la yesterday's thread
Me, I think he's a total prick.0 -
USA - Hilary
"...a disturbing pattern of foreign contributions and enormous speaking fees for Bill Clinton that appear to be timed to coincide with preferential actions the State Department took while Mrs. Clinton was secretary of state."
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/417519/are-democratic-insiders-starting-panic-about-hillary-john-fund0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11566593/Ed-Balls-Day-fourth-anniversary-of-that-tweet.htmldr_spyn said:Why is Ed Balls trending today?
0 -
Not sure about that. The bush burned but was not consumed, and was a renewable resource in the first place.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, God's a hypocrite. The burning bush clearly contributed to carbon emissions.
@Jack
That 7 from Shadsy on Lab under 250 is looking good...0 -
Those hated Public green areas preserved for the enjoyment of the general populace are also fair game.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/residents-anger-after-group-of-immigrants-build-filthy-shanty-town-in-north-london-park-9768850.html
Progress.0 -
....and where is Ed Balls ..seems to have vanished..0
-
He 'represents' the Yoof in EdM's mind, an area where Ed is completely out of his depth.Slackbladder said:Can someone tell me why on earth Miliband is courting Russell Brand?
0 -
Mr. Foxinsox, perpetual burning = perpetual emissions!0
-
As does Vince Cable!richardDodd said:....and where is Ed Balls ..seems to have vanished..
0 -
It's a percentage of current market rates. So in, say, Bolton Gardens, it would be several million quid for a one-bed flat, while in Bolton, it would be a bit less.SouthamObserver said:A key issue is the definition of affordable housing. In London, it often seems to mean "not quite as much as full market rate but loads more than most people can pay".
0 -
Looks like Holder and Obama are making law and order an election issue, real vote loser for the Dems. It's like Dinkins but on a national scale.anotherDave said:USA - Hilary
"...a disturbing pattern of foreign contributions and enormous speaking fees for Bill Clinton that appear to be timed to coincide with preferential actions the State Department took while Mrs. Clinton was secretary of state."
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/417519/are-democratic-insiders-starting-panic-about-hillary-john-fund0 -
Great Yarmouth doesn't look safe on those numbers.0
-
The margins are very tight for under 250, with numerous TCTC seats, but the value is there.foxinsoxuk said:
@JackMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, God's a hypocrite. The burning bush clearly contributed to carbon emissions.
That 7 from Shadsy on Lab under 250 is looking good...
0 -
Post election there will be an interesting debate to have over the role and effect of the debates in the 2010 and 2015 campaigns.Slackbladder said:
The GE as a whole just seems very very low-key I feel. 5 years agao it was all Cleggasm and the debates, whereas this time.....philiph said:
Is that the 'I wouldn't vote Russell Brand?'Slackbladder said:Can someone tell me why on earth Miliband is courting Russell Brand?
I wonder if he will promote little Eddy Weddy and his little Bookie Wookie at the same time. I know I'm not in the target demographic, but the word tosser comes to mind. Apply as you see fit.
Very few posters or stickers here in North Herts, the LibDem and Con ones normally on display are absent. The most obvious (and only one I remember seeing) is a Green Party banner, located in a very desirable mansion tax eligible location.
I get the impression that some parties were assuming that the debates would be dominant as they were in 2010, and had an election plan based on that. The low key impact of the debates has thrown the plans of some into confusion. The LibDems in particular, I think fall into this category.
I suspect the debates were never going to be as important as in 2010 because they were not 'New', we have had them before so the exciting lustre was already dimmed even if they had followed a similar format to 2010.0 -
0
-
The big question now is will the SNP issue have the same impact as the Falklands crisis did which turned the votes to Margaret Thatcher and the conservatives enabling them to win the General Election0
-
Was invited to a coming-of-age celebration (a lady had turned 40, so perhaps it was a commiseration) at a local hostelry last might.
Among the ~60 people, there was a wide range of political loyalties and quite a lively discussion. Those in favour of wish-lists collapsed under the avalanche of "how will you do it/pay for it" questions, but the consensus of the vast majority was 'don't rock the boat' and 'steady as she goes'. Even non-supporters and critics thought the coalition had done a reasonable and fair job under the circumstances of a peacetime coalition and unforseen events.0 -
FalseFlag said:
Wasn’t it quite common to rent up to WWII? Or even, since the middle classes did it, usual!Patrick said:
We like low rise and we like green fields.antifrank said:
That's a fscinating graphic! Thanks. Conforms just how relatively low rise London is. In fact the whole of the UK is still well over 90% green fields. Even outside the Green Belt. We do actually have alot of land to build on. We just choose not to.DecrepitJohnL said:
A visual representation of London's density of population (or lack):Patrick said:
As rcs1000 says, we are seeing more of this, though generally aimed at the affluent buyer. In the past, tower blocks have been associated with social problems. But as to population density, London already has the highest in Britain, and it would be higher still were it not for our parks.DecrepitJohnL said:
As Antifrank pointed out recently, London has 3 dimensions and we only really use two of them. For such a large city London has an amazingly low population density. If there is such huge demand for affordable flats in London then let's build upwards. We allow any number of huge skyscrpaers for business - just look at how the London skyline has changed in recent years. Allowing the same for residential property would be a sensible thing IMHO.Patrick said:
Short of sticking up skyscrapers in Hyde Park, how would that work in central London?DavidL said:
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!Patrick said:Scott_P said:@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate
twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.
Oh. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11565524/Housebuilders-hit-by-Ed-Milibands-rent-control-plans.html
[snipped for length]
One actual gorilla is subsidies for landlords, aka housing benefits.
http://files.lsecities.net/files/2011/11/2011_chw_2050_01.gif
Sorry ... made a bog of posting.0 -
God help them if that useless thick halfwitted buffoon is their only hopeDecrepitJohnL said:
If Carmichael does crawl from the wreckage, is he worth a punt at around 20/1 for next LibDem leader?DavidL said:
I think Thurso will hold on. And maybe Charlie although that seems less likely now. Carmichael is safe. After that I really struggle.Pulpstar said:
@Dair of this parish did mention that he thought Thurso has the only genuine personal vote in Scottish politics so perhaps not out the question. I'll be very surprised to collect the slightly larger profit I have on the Lib Dems there, mind. Mike Crockhart of Edinburgh West is intriguingly poised on the models too, a touch of tactical voting could see him over the line.DavidL said:
I still think they will be left with no Scottish seats south of Inverness. I have been saying this for months and I have not seen anything in the polling indicating otherwise.JackW said:
This Guardian piece is broadly in line with reports I'm receiving, albeit not quite so rosy for the yellow peril but certainly better than the raw Scottish polling would suggest.DavidL said:
Charlie looks terrible in that photograph. Its a real shame. The party admitting that he is in trouble in his seat doesn't exactly help either.AndyJS said:LDs upbeat about their chances in Scotland:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/27/lib-dems-ramp-up-scottish-campaign-after-polling-data-boost
"The private polling data and canvassing returns suggest the party is in the lead in several constituencies including East Dunbartonshire, being defended by Jo Swinson, and West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, which is held by Sir Robert Smith.
At least five more seats where the Lib Dems are fighting to overturn an SNP lead, including Edinburgh West, Argyll & Bute and Inverness, could be held because of an upsurge in tactical voting by pro-UK party supporters, the party believes.
The Lib Dems also expect to hold Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, which is the most northerly seat on the UK mainland and being defended by John Thurso, as well as Orkney and Shetland just to the north, one of the party’s safest, held by Alistair Carmichael, the Scotland secretary."
Curious that Moore's seat does not seem to be one of those getting the additional resources. Maybe just didn't fit with the narrative to announce it.
Moore's seat hasn't received extra resources because it was already in the top tier.0 -
Gadfly - Can I tweet your graphic please?0
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Wasn’t it quite common to rent up to WWII? Or even, since the middle classes did it, usual!0
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I'm having an early lunch today and included in the small party is a source with knowledge of Watford constituency.
I shall endeavour to pump the source for 100% proof information whilst pumping said source with sauce .... 13.5% proof.0 -
None down here in Kent, Southam....SouthamObserver said:For the first time ever Dorset will have a top flight football team next year. How many of the proper counties on their proper boundaries have not had one? Cornwall, Shropshire, Worcestershire, Herefordshire, Cheshire, Huntingdonshire, Cambridgeshire and Somerset spring to mind (Devon if Plymouth have never made it). There must be a few others. Would Sunderland once have been in County Durham?
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The same would be true of a crack deal, not sure we should be supporting it though.rcs1000 said:
Willing buyer. Willing seller.FalseFlag said:
Beds in sheds. Thankfully Slough council etc. acted in the public interest and cracked down on that trend, supposedly.rcs1000 said:
Clearly, allowing people to build property on land they own is going to create shanty towns and favellas.FalseFlag said:Favellas and shanty towns are one solution.
Obviously.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2052051/Suburban-slumdogs-Scores-desperate-migrants-crammed-shanty-town-sheds-garages-ruthless-landlords-No-Mumbai--London.html
But hey, you know best.0 -
Of course!TheScreamingEagles said:Gadfly - Can I tweet your graphic please?
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I see the ARSE is slowly converging on my competition predictions. Just shift a few of the yellow peril over to the yellower peril and you'll nearly be there, Jack.JackW said:BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 25th April Projection) :
Con 305 (+1) .. Lab 246 (-3) .. LibDem 30 (NC) .. SNP 42 (+2) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 10 -
Thank you.Gadfly said:
Of course!TheScreamingEagles said:Gadfly - Can I tweet your graphic please?
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Disagree with you here. It's got nothing to do with encouraging fitness and everything to do with objectification and figure fascism. The company know this and are using the image specifically to provoke, and thereby garner publicity and sales.antifrank said:
Bizarre. That's one of the rare occasions when using a scantily clad woman in an advert is entirely justifiable. Have we really reached the point when encouraging people to buy a product to be fitter is offensive?Roger said:
There is no reason or need to look like that, or look like the male version of the poster to go to the beach. You're beach ready when you put your trunks or bikini on, regardless of your shape.
Still, long live the patriarchy and everything.0 -
I find that advert very odd. I'm sure it's been photoshopped or something, but the expression on the model's face is just weird.Roger said:0 -
UK planning regulations and consent procedures are based on an unstated assumption that the population is static or growing only slowly; therefore, there has always been room and a need to consider the impact of building before allowing housebuilders to just plough ahead.Patrick said:
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!DavidL said:
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.Patrick said:
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.Scott_P said:@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate
twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
Oh. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11565524/Housebuilders-hit-by-Ed-Milibands-rent-control-plans.html
Joking apart - the housing issue and the worries / problems of 'generation rent' are a very real issue that all parties shy away from. The 1000 pound throbbing gorilla in the corner is our insane planning laws. The problem of supply and demand can never be resolved until supply is liberalised. We have a huge, huge demand for housing and a gajillion builders / developers ready to build. The problem is that the state has decided to place very very severe restrictions on the supply. We need a 'brave' politician (in the Sir Humphrey sense) to make it very very much easier to obtain planning permission. This would of course collapse the value of land banks and housing. So bad for oldies and existing property owners but great for those who are currently excluded from the property ladder.
If you add 7 million to the population in 15 years then something's not fit for purpose, but it might not be your planning system, necessarily.
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Gloucestershire, Sussex, Surrey?Tony_M said:
None down here in Kent, Southam....SouthamObserver said:For the first time ever Dorset will have a top flight football team next year. How many of the proper counties on their proper boundaries have not had one? Cornwall, Shropshire, Worcestershire, Herefordshire, Cheshire, Huntingdonshire, Cambridgeshire and Somerset spring to mind (Devon if Plymouth have never made it). There must be a few others. Would Sunderland once have been in County Durham?
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Charlton Athletic? On the old boundaries?Tony_M said:
None down here in Kent, Southam....SouthamObserver said:For the first time ever Dorset will have a top flight football team next year. How many of the proper counties on their proper boundaries have not had one? Cornwall, Shropshire, Worcestershire, Herefordshire, Cheshire, Huntingdonshire, Cambridgeshire and Somerset spring to mind (Devon if Plymouth have never made it). There must be a few others. Would Sunderland once have been in County Durham?
Don’t think Surrey has either, although is Crystal Palace’s ground in what was once Surrey?0
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