Labour's allegedly top class ground game is non-existent in the supposedly marginal Warwick & Leamington as far as I can tell. They must have given up on winning it back.
Surprising.
Mate and his wife moved to Warwick ~3 years ago. She is apparently voting Green because she can't vote for Miliband... no idea about him.
I think the few Scottish polls show that the relentless Tory/MSM SNP attackathon has started to awaken a new tide of support for the SNP, my sense is that this new SNP surge could well push the SNP above 55% on 7th May. I think David Cameron may well have just broken the Union in pursuit of power. Should his power grab fail it will be a classic Greek tragedy, perhaps Boris could publish it in Greek.
The Survation trust ratings make interesting reading and will result in most of the don't knows who do vote, breaking for the SNP. It's very telling that the Tory BT supporters who flooded social media with relentless project fear drivel have now fallen completely silent, I think many of them are now waking up to the fact that they were conned by BT/MSM into joining in on Scottish bashing and trashing of iScotland's future prospects.
I don't think so. The tidal wave was already in full effect. If anything, I think Cameron's intervention will give cause to reflect. Most Scottish voters don't want to be dealing with him, and they can see that their vote may be wasted if Labour don't get in and a few may switch back.
I think the few Scottish polls show that the relentless Tory/MSM SNP attackathon has started to awaken a new tide of support for the SNP, my sense is that this new SNP surge could well push the SNP above 55% on 7th May. I think David Cameron may well have just broken the Union in pursuit of power. Should his power grab fail it will be a classic Greek tragedy, perhaps Boris could publish it in Greek.
The Survation trust ratings make interesting reading and will result in most of the don't knows who do vote, breaking for the SNP. It's very telling that the Tory BT supporters who flooded social media with relentless project fear drivel have now fallen completely silent, I think many of them are now waking up to the fact that they were conned by BT/MSM into joining in on Scottish bashing and trashing of iScotland's future prospects.
The SNP surge happened well before the last few weeks.
The state of the union is complex and fault for its demise or whatever will happen cannot fall on one person or party. This is history going back many many hundreds of years..
Sure it can. Tony Blair and his messed up devolution was a recipe for disaster and everything that's followed since is a consequence of attempting to gerrymander a Labour enclave.
What contribution do you think was made by Douglas-Home offering 'better' devolution if Scots voted No in 1979, then followed by Thatcher dropping devo down a well?
Polls coalescing around a Tory lead, even the ones who always seem less favourable.
Ashcroft: C 36 L 30 (Con +6) Comres: C 36 L 32 (Con +4) ICM: C35 L 32 (Con +3) Survation: C33 L30 (Con+3) Yougov: C35 L 34 (Con+1) Opinium: C34 L 33 (Con+1) TNS: C34 L 33 (Con+1)
Ok, politics and betting, that's where we were...... Latest hot Dyedwoolie tips Beginning to look like a small swing back is settling in, which may well be down to late breakers clinging to nurse as is often the way coming into an election. Tory most seats has to be clear favourite now given the Scotgasm, but Cam as PM? He needs to be 30 plus ahead surely, a Though anything over about 15 and Miliband will face backlash if he seizes the crown.
Seats wise, Norwich North still looks knife edge to me, there is far more Labour activity than last time but there is also local concern over the possible Lab SNP government on offer. Great Yarmouth - UKIP falling back slightly might just deliver this to Labour, but Tory hold remains just favourite. Scottish Tory hopes - back two seats and cover the win in the three border seats, they should take two of these, as I expect quiet Scot Tories to surge out given the strength of the SNP.
Labour's allegedly top class ground game is non-existent in the supposedly marginal Warwick & Leamington as far as I can tell. They must have given up on winning it back.
Ashcroft showed a 4% Tory lead in December. I imagine they've extended it since then and Labour have decided to concentrate their efforts elsewhere.
Mr. C, and Mr. Thompson, spot on, and that's why any notion of regional assemblies being inflicted upon England are bloody stupid.
Yeah. I'm also suffering heart disease (genetic, not dietary related) but am holding out hope that it's the reduction in beer and calorie content wot dun it
Edit - sorry Morris meant to quote your weight loss post, not this one
Polls coalescing around a Tory lead, even the ones who always seem less favourable.
Ashcroft: C 36 L 30 (Con +6) Comres: C 36 L 32 (Con +4) ICM: C35 L 32 (Con +3) Survation: C33 L30 (Con+3) Yougov: C35 L 34 (Con+1) Opinium: C34 L 33 (Con+1) TNS: C34 L 33 (Con+1)
Polls coalescing around a Tory lead, even the ones who always seem less favourable.
Ashcroft: C 36 L 30 (Con +6) Comres: C 36 L 32 (Con +4) ICM: C35 L 32 (Con +3) Survation: C33 L30 (Con+3) Yougov: C35 L 34 (Con+1) Opinium: C34 L 33 (Con+1) TNS: C34 L 33 (Con+1)
Labour's allegedly top class ground game is non-existent in the supposedly marginal Warwick & Leamington as far as I can tell. They must have given up on winning it back.
Surprising.
Mate and his wife moved to Warwick ~3 years ago. She is apparently voting Green because she can't vote for Miliband... no idea about him.
Unsurprising. Tory seat won in 97 landslide, held onto just by popular local MP. Now he (Plaskitt) has gone, Labour needs another landslide.
As a counter factual, it is interesting to consider what this election result might be looking like were it not for the SNP surge.
My guess is Labour on around 300 seats, with the Tories on around 280 seats. Or possibly even parity around the 290 seat mark.
The Lib Dems would probably still be north of 30 seats and still in a position to be well and truly kingmakers. IMHO the rise of the SNP does make Cameron remaining as PM more likely.
Interesting article on Clegg's troubles in Sheffield Hallam. I think its going to be a lot closer than the PB consensus has it.
An article that says little, very little fresh to suggest Clegg won't win. Any anger about cuts to a very unpopular local council budget, more than squared by the recent Labour council performance over the border in Rotherham. Clegg will hold his seat.
I think the few Scottish polls show that the relentless Tory/MSM SNP attackathon has started to awaken a new tide of support for the SNP, my sense is that this new SNP surge could well push the SNP above 55% on 7th May. I think David Cameron may well have just broken the Union in pursuit of power. Should his power grab fail it will be a classic Greek tragedy, perhaps Boris could publish it in Greek.
The Survation trust ratings make interesting reading and will result in most of the don't knows who do vote, breaking for the SNP. It's very telling that the Tory BT supporters who flooded social media with relentless project fear drivel have now fallen completely silent, I think many of them are now waking up to the fact that they were conned by BT/MSM into joining in on Scottish bashing and trashing of iScotland's future prospects.
The SNP surge happened well before the last few weeks.
The state of the union is complex and fault for its demise or whatever will happen cannot fall on one person or party. This is history going back many many hundreds of years..
Sure it can. Tony Blair and his messed up devolution was a recipe for disaster and everything that's followed since is a consequence of attempting to gerrymander a Labour enclave.
What contribution do you think was made by Douglas-Home offering 'better' devolution if Scots voted No in 1979, then followed by Thatcher dropping devo down a well?
Not much contribution, as demonstrated by the negligible SNP vote until after Labour's messed up devolution.
Its a pretty standard tactic of no campaigns to hold a vague concept of something better that never materialises. When I lived in Australia in 1999 during their republic referendum many were saying vote no because the republic on offer wasn't a good one and there should be a better way to select the President than having it be unelected as proposed.
16 years later, Australia still is a monarchy and there's no sign of getting an elected rather than appointed President.
Labour's allegedly top class ground game is non-existent in the supposedly marginal Warwick & Leamington as far as I can tell. They must have given up on winning it back.
Surprising.
Mate and his wife moved to Warwick ~3 years ago. She is apparently voting Green because she can't vote for Miliband... no idea about him.
Unsurprising. Tory seat won in 97 landslide, held onto just by popular local MP. Now he (Plaskitt) has gone, Labour needs another landslide.
There's a few similar seats around the country.
Warwick and Leamington should be true, easy blue.
Astonishing it is almost the same marginality as Nuneaton which feels like a Labour sort of place.
Interesting article on Clegg's troubles in Sheffield Hallam. I think its going to be a lot closer than the PB consensus has it.
An article that says little, very little fresh to suggest Clegg won't win. Any anger about cuts to a very unpopular local council budget, more than squared by the recent Labour council performance over the border in Rotherham. Clegg will hold his seat.
Sheffield Hallam and Rotherham are different planets !
Mr. Woolie, I was rather taken by your unorthodox approach towards the constitutional settlement
*snigger* Further tips - Greens a clear second in Norwich South, Wright to fall to fifth, will become a Green seat by 2025 Tories to be within 10% in Perth and NP and Banff and Buchan
Labour's allegedly top class ground game is non-existent in the supposedly marginal Warwick & Leamington as far as I can tell. They must have given up on winning it back.
Surprising.
Mate and his wife moved to Warwick ~3 years ago. She is apparently voting Green because she can't vote for Miliband... no idea about him.
Unsurprising. Tory seat won in 97 landslide, held onto just by popular local MP. Now he (Plaskitt) has gone, Labour needs another landslide.
There's a few similar seats around the country.
Warwick and Leamington should be true, easy blue.
Astonishing it is almost the same marginality as Nuneaton which feels like a Labour sort of place.
Labour has stayed in the game thanks to lots of Warwick University students and faculty, plus an old working class legacy community that used to work in factories that are no longer there and a Labour-leaning Sikh community. It will go deeper blue over the coming years as the older Labour vote dies out.
Interesting article on Clegg's troubles in Sheffield Hallam. I think its going to be a lot closer than the PB consensus has it.
An article that says little, very little fresh to suggest Clegg won't win. Any anger about cuts to a very unpopular local council budget, more than squared by the recent Labour council performance over the border in Rotherham. Clegg will hold his seat.
About the author of the article in The Telegraph: "Stanley joined the British Labour Party at the age of 15. He was Chair of Cambridge University Labour Club in 2003-4, and stood as the Labour candidate for his home constituency of Sevenoaks at the 2005 general election, where he came third."
Interesting article on Clegg's troubles in Sheffield Hallam. I think its going to be a lot closer than the PB consensus has it.
An article that says little, very little fresh to suggest Clegg won't win. Any anger about cuts to a very unpopular local council budget, more than squared by the recent Labour council performance over the border in Rotherham. Clegg will hold his seat.
About the author of the article in The Telegraph: "Stanley joined the British Labour Party at the age of 15. He was Chair of Cambridge University Labour Club in 2003-4, and stood as the Labour candidate for his home constituency of Sevenoaks at the 2005 general election, where he came third."
Labour's allegedly top class ground game is non-existent in the supposedly marginal Warwick & Leamington as far as I can tell. They must have given up on winning it back.
Surprising.
Mate and his wife moved to Warwick ~3 years ago. She is apparently voting Green because she can't vote for Miliband... no idea about him.
Unsurprising. Tory seat won in 97 landslide, held onto just by popular local MP. Now he (Plaskitt) has gone, Labour needs another landslide.
There's a few similar seats around the country.
Warwick and Leamington should be true, easy blue.
Astonishing it is almost the same marginality as Nuneaton which feels like a Labour sort of place.
Labour's allegedly top class ground game is non-existent in the supposedly marginal Warwick & Leamington as far as I can tell. They must have given up on winning it back.
Surprising.
Mate and his wife moved to Warwick ~3 years ago. She is apparently voting Green because she can't vote for Miliband... no idea about him.
Unsurprising. Tory seat won in 97 landslide, held onto just by popular local MP. Now he (Plaskitt) has gone, Labour needs another landslide.
There's a few similar seats around the country.
Warwick and Leamington should be true, easy blue.
Astonishing it is almost the same marginality as Nuneaton which feels like a Labour sort of place.
I think the few Scottish polls show that the relentless Tory/MSM SNP attackathon has started to awaken a new tide of support for the SNP, my sense is that this new SNP surge could well push the SNP above 55% on 7th May. I think David Cameron may well have just broken the Union in pursuit of power. Should his power grab fail it will be a classic Greek tragedy, perhaps Boris could publish it in Greek.
The Survation trust ratings make interesting reading and will result in most of the don't knows who do vote, breaking for the SNP. It's very telling that the Tory BT supporters who flooded social media with relentless project fear drivel have now fallen completely silent, I think many of them are now waking up to the fact that they were conned by BT/MSM into joining in on Scottish bashing and trashing of iScotland's future prospects.
The SNP surge happened well before the last few weeks.
The state of the union is complex and fault for its demise or whatever will happen cannot fall on one person or party. This is history going back many many hundreds of years..
Sure it can. Tony Blair and his messed up devolution was a recipe for disaster and everything that's followed since is a consequence of attempting to gerrymander a Labour enclave.
What contribution do you think was made by Douglas-Home offering 'better' devolution if Scots voted No in 1979, then followed by Thatcher dropping devo down a well?
Not much contribution, as demonstrated by the negligible SNP vote until after Labour's messed up devolution.
Its a pretty standard tactic of no campaigns to hold a vague concept of something better that never materialises. When I lived in Australia in 1999 during their republic referendum many were saying vote no because the republic on offer wasn't a good one and there should be a better way to select the President than having it be unelected as proposed.
16 years later, Australia still is a monarchy and there's no sign of getting an elected rather than appointed President.
The SNP's vote reduced sharply in Scotland in the 80s because they backed the Tories in the '79 vote of no confidence.
Interesting article on Clegg's troubles in Sheffield Hallam. I think its going to be a lot closer than the PB consensus has it.
An article that says little, very little fresh to suggest Clegg won't win. Any anger about cuts to a very unpopular local council budget, more than squared by the recent Labour council performance over the border in Rotherham. Clegg will hold his seat.
I think it will be close, but outsiders might not realise what a struggle it is for Labour to win this seat. Before Clegg won, it was Tory for generations, and Labour have been in 3rd place since 1983.
I think the few Scottish polls show that the relentless Tory/MSM SNP attackathon has started to awaken a new tide of support for the SNP, my sense is that this new SNP surge could well push the SNP above 55% on 7th May. I think David Cameron may well have just broken the Union in pursuit of power. Should his power grab fail it will be a classic Greek tragedy, perhaps Boris could publish it in Greek.
The Survation trust ratings make interesting reading and will result in most of the don't knows who do vote, breaking for the SNP. It's very telling that the Tory BT supporters who flooded social media with relentless project fear drivel have now fallen completely silent, I think many of them are now waking up to the fact that they were conned by BT/MSM into joining in on Scottish bashing and trashing of iScotland's future prospects.
The SNP surge happened well before the last few weeks.
The state of the union is complex and fault for its demise or whatever will happen cannot fall on one person or party. This is history going back many many hundreds of years..
Sure it can. Tony Blair and his messed up devolution was a recipe for disaster and everything that's followed since is a consequence of attempting to gerrymander a Labour enclave.
What contribution do you think was made by Douglas-Home offering 'better' devolution if Scots voted No in 1979, then followed by Thatcher dropping devo down a well?
Not much contribution, as demonstrated by the negligible SNP vote until after Labour's messed up devolution.
The usual trope is that SNP's support flatlined because they were the midwives of Thatcherism.
The Tories dumping of devo (Declaration of Perth anyone?) ensured that a Labour government had to enact devolution of some sort in 1997. A 74/26 win in the referendum suggests there would have been consequences if they had not.
Yup probably wasn't smart dropping that totally, as Scotland continued to vote in an ever more different way from England as the Thatcher/Major years ran on. But, I'd agree with those who have pointed out that Blair's devolution settlement was essentially unstable and was gerrymandering a "permanent" fiefdom for SLAB (with the Welsh merely tacked on as an afterthought).
It was only ever going to be stable as long as London, Edinburgh, and Cardiff had the same stripe of govt more or less. Once the Blair dominance started to unwind (as it would eventually) the fundamental flaws have appeared, made worse by SLAB visibly keeping the B team in Scotland and fuelling the impression that the A listers (Brown, Darling, Reid, Cook, Alexander etc ) still saw the real action in London having thrown the Scots a bone. It was a dreadful miscalculation, that has given the SNP a governmental platform and that is going to cost Labour a majority (and just possibly government) this time round and present them with all kinds of strategic issues beyond. Frankly I think Salmond screwed up the indy ref by really only bidding for Devo very max with gunboats. He should've had a better answer to the currency question. Nevertheless the SNP are winning the peace. If you are a lefty Scot- what's the point of SLAB? You can vote for an even leftier, competent experienced party that's out to get whatever pork it can for your neck of the woods (and fair enough from a Scottish viewpoint). I can't really see what SLAB can offer to outbid that in 2020, or 2025, or 2030 even unless the SNP drop the ball big time.
The bigger question remains either Scotland is heading for the exit anyway (and if they keep voting SNP in all elections it's when not if), or you try and solve the English question (which Labour and the Lib Dems want to ignore by talking utter rot about "cities" or "regions"), and somehow create a fair sustainable federal settlement where one of the "units" is 85% of the people and probably 90%+ of the wealth. Blair (or the Tories in the 80/90's) didn't want to think about that, hence we are where we are.
I think the few Scottish polls show that the relentless Tory/MSM SNP attackathon has started to awaken a new tide of support for the SNP, my sense is that this new SNP surge could well push the SNP above 55% on 7th May. I think David Cameron may well have just broken the Union in pursuit of power. Should his power grab fail it will be a classic Greek tragedy, perhaps Boris could publish it in Greek.
The Survation trust ratings make interesting reading and will result in most of the don't knows who do vote, breaking for the SNP. It's very telling that the Tory BT supporters who flooded social media with relentless project fear drivel have now fallen completely silent, I think many of them are now waking up to the fact that they were conned by BT/MSM into joining in on Scottish bashing and trashing of iScotland's future prospects.
The SNP surge happened well before the last few weeks.
The state of the union is complex and fault for its demise or whatever will happen cannot fall on one person or party. This is history going back many many hundreds of years..
Sure it can. Tony Blair and his messed up devolution was a recipe for disaster and everything that's followed since is a consequence of attempting to gerrymander a Labour enclave.
What contribution do you think was made by Douglas-Home offering 'better' devolution if Scots voted No in 1979, then followed by Thatcher dropping devo down a well?
Not much contribution, as demonstrated by the negligible SNP vote until after Labour's messed up devolution.
The usual trope is that SNP's support flatlined because they were the midwives of Thatcherism.
The Tories dumping of devo (Declaration of Perth anyone?) ensured that a Labour government had to enact devolution of some sort in 1997. A 74/26 win in the referendum suggests there would have been consequences if they had not.
What course do you think Scottish politics might have taken had the Tories implemented devolution under Heath?
Can a nominated candidate change party between now and the GE, also can candidates be added ?
As far as the official ballot paper is concerned - No and No.
Obviously a candidate could be rejected by his/her party and/or state publically 'If elected, I will change parties and sit for X instead of Y' but they would have been officially elected as a candidate for the Y party.
I think the few Scottish polls show that the relentless Tory/MSM SNP attackathon has started to awaken a new tide of support for the SNP, my sense is that this new SNP surge could well push the SNP above 55% on 7th May. I think David Cameron may well have just broken the Union in pursuit of power. Should his power grab fail it will be a classic Greek tragedy, perhaps Boris could publish it in Greek.
The Survation trust ratings make interesting reading and will result in most of the don't knows who do vote, breaking for the SNP. It's very telling that the Tory BT supporters who flooded social media with relentless project fear drivel have now fallen completely silent, I think many of them are now waking up to the fact that they were conned by BT/MSM into joining in on Scottish bashing and trashing of iScotland's future prospects.
The SNP surge happened well before the last few weeks.
The state of the union is complex and fault for its demise or whatever will happen cannot fall on one person or party. This is history going back many many hundreds of years..
Sure it can. Tony Blair and his messed up devolution was a recipe for disaster and everything that's followed since is a consequence of attempting to gerrymander a Labour enclave.
What contribution do you think was made by Douglas-Home offering 'better' devolution if Scots voted No in 1979, then followed by Thatcher dropping devo down a well?
Not much contribution, as demonstrated by the negligible SNP vote until after Labour's messed up devolution.
The usual trope is that SNP's support flatlined because they were the midwives of Thatcherism.
The Tories dumping of devo (Declaration of Perth anyone?) ensured that a Labour government had to enact devolution of some sort in 1997. A 74/26 win in the referendum suggests there would have been consequences if they had not.
What course do you think Scottish politics might have taken had the Tories implemented devolution under Heath?
Nigel Farage has characterised the UK Labour vote as a 'rotten window frame'
All you have to do is push it and it caves in.
Hmmn.
I've consistently argued here that labour's actual vote tends to under perform its poll score. It can;'t be that soft though, surely.
Labours vote has declined from a vote for unions, workers rights and nationalisation twinned with a generally socialist outlook to being a vote for 'not the Tories'. There's nothing positive to vote FOR with Labour, hence they are as soft as butter. Witness the euros before last,
Nigel Farage has characterised the UK Labour vote as a 'rotten window frame'
All you have to do is push it and it caves in.
Hmmn.
I've consistently argued here that labour's actual vote tends to under perform its poll score. It can;'t be that soft though, surely.
We've just seen a complete collapse in Scotland. In England and Wales Labour drove away a lot of their traditional supporters during the New Labour years.
The Conservatives were unable to attract those voters, the test of election day is to see if UKIP has been able to attract them. Will turnout return to pre-1997 levels?
The Tories dumping of devo (Declaration of Perth anyone?) ensured that a Labour government had to enact devolution of some sort in 1997. A 74/26 win in the referendum suggests there would have been consequences if they had not.
Not necessarily, the split in the referendum was based on Labour pushing for and supporting devolution, so can't be taken in isolation. There's a bit of a chicken and egg effect there.
What Labour didn't have to do was create a dog's breakfast of devolution. Labour could for example have addressed the West Lothian Question while implementing devolution - but that wasn't good for Labour's petty partisan interest so they didn't and now the chicken is coming home.
They also could have used our proper voting system, FPTP, rather than a system that was explicitly designed to try and get certain results.
They also could have implemented devolution in England at the same time as Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland - in which case now we'd be electing a UK government for dealing with UK issues and Scottish MPs would be genuine equals. But again that didn't suit the Labour party so wasn't done.
There's plenty of things that could and should have been done differently but weren't deliberately. If any genuinely equal attempt at addressing the issues had been done, we wouldn't be dealing with this today.
I think the few Scottish polls show that the relentless Tory/MSM SNP attackathon has started to awaken a new tide of support for the SNP, my sense is that this new SNP surge could well push the SNP above 55% on 7th May. I think David Cameron may well have just broken the Union in pursuit of power. Should his power grab fail it will be a classic Greek tragedy, perhaps Boris could publish it in Greek.
The Survation trust ratings make interesting reading and will result in most of the don't knows who do vote, breaking for the SNP. It's very telling that the Tory BT supporters who flooded social media with relentless project fear drivel have now fallen completely silent, I think many of them are now waking up to the fact that they were conned by BT/MSM into joining in on Scottish bashing and trashing of iScotland's future prospects.
The SNP surge happened well before the last few weeks.
The state of the union is complex and fault for its demise or whatever will happen cannot fall on one person or party. This is history going back many many hundreds of years..
Sure it can. Tony Blair and his messed up devolution was a recipe for disaster and everything that's followed since is a consequence of attempting to gerrymander a Labour enclave.
What contribution do you think was made by Douglas-Home offering 'better' devolution if Scots voted No in 1979, then followed by Thatcher dropping devo down a well?
Not much contribution, as demonstrated by the negligible SNP vote until after Labour's messed up devolution.
The usual trope is that SNP's support flatlined because they were the midwives of Thatcherism.
The Tories dumping of devo (Declaration of Perth anyone?) ensured that a Labour government had to enact devolution of some sort in 1997. A 74/26 win in the referendum suggests there would have been consequences if they had not.
What course do you think Scottish politics might have taken had the Tories implemented devolution under Heath?
The Conservative First Minister of Scotland, Mr Teddy Taylor, hailed devolution as a step forward for Scotland, and the UK.
Can a nominated candidate change party between now and the GE, also can candidates be added ?
The ballot papers are immutable now - I could join the Tories or die (tough forced choice) and it won't make any difference. Nor can any candidates be added. WYSIWYG.
Can a nominated candidate change party between now and the GE, also can candidates be added ?
The ballot papers are immutable now - I could join the Tories or die (tough forced choice) and it won't make any difference. Nor can any candidates be added. WYSIWYG.
Technically if you die, then the election is delayed and your party can nominate someone else, but no other parties can change candidates.
What course do you think Scottish politics might have taken had the Tories implemented devolution under Heath?
If it had led to a UK constitutional conversation and even (whisper it) federalism, who knows? Though if the Thatcherite revolution had still taken place I suspect we'd more or less be where we are.
Can a nominated candidate change party between now and the GE, also can candidates be added ?
The ballot papers are immutable now - I could join the Tories or die (tough forced choice) and it won't make any difference. Nor can any candidates be added. WYSIWYG.
Didn’t something like that hapen last time? Without looking it up.
Can a nominated candidate change party between now and the GE, also can candidates be added ?
The ballot papers are immutable now - I could join the Tories or die (tough forced choice) and it won't make any difference. Nor can any candidates be added. WYSIWYG.
Didn’t something like that hapen last time? Without looking it up.
In England and Wales, the Conservatives lead Labour by 35.5%, to 33.3%, according to TNS, a swing of 3.5%.
Interesting. IF the Lab vote is half as soft as Farage claims, add in a last minute swing to the government and incumbency, and the 'real' swing might be zero.
I think the few Scottish polls show that the relentless Tory/MSM SNP attackathon has started to awaken a new tide of support for the SNP, my sense is that this new SNP surge could well push the SNP above 55% on 7th May. I think David Cameron may well have just broken the Union in pursuit of power. Should his power grab fail it will be a classic Greek tragedy, perhaps Boris could publish it in Greek.
The Survation trust ratings make interesting reading and will result in most of the don't knows who do vote, breaking for the SNP. It's very telling that the Tory BT supporters who flooded social media with relentless project fear drivel have now fallen completely silent, I think many of them are now waking up to the fact that they were conned by BT/MSM into joining in on Scottish bashing and trashing of iScotland's future prospects.
The SNP surge happened well before the last few weeks.
The state of the union is complex and fault for its demise or whatever will happen cannot fall on one person or party. This is history going back many many hundreds of years..
Sure it can. Tony Blair and his messed up devolution was a recipe for disaster and everything that's followed since is a consequence of attempting to gerrymander a Labour enclave.
What contribution do you think was made by Douglas-Home offering 'better' devolution if Scots voted No in 1979, then followed by Thatcher dropping devo down a well?
Not much contribution, as demonstrated by the negligible SNP vote until after Labour's messed up devolution.
The usual trope is that SNP's support flatlined because they were the midwives of Thatcherism.
The Tories dumping of devo (Declaration of Perth anyone?) ensured that a Labour government had to enact devolution of some sort in 1997. A 74/26 win in the referendum suggests there would have been consequences if they had not.
What course do you think Scottish politics might have taken had the Tories implemented devolution under Heath?
The Conservative First Minister of Scotland, Mr Teddy Taylor, hailed devolution as a step forward for Scotland, and the UK.
@Jungleland If you're lurking you might want to have a look at Bradford East. I've sold Respect there for a pound. Others may go in for more though as it is a cert win.
In England and Wales, the Conservatives lead Labour by 35.5%, to 33.3%, according to TNS, a swing of 3.5%.
Interesting. IF the Lab vote is half as soft as Farage claims, add in a last minute swing to the government and incumbency, and the 'real' swing might be zero.
Making Morley, Middlesborugh, Southamtpon, Dudley and Derby, Plymouth Moor View and Telford worth a little looksie
King Cole, I think so. Maybe in North Yorkshire? I'm sure someone died and the vote was delayed.
Yes, Thirsk, but I have an idea that a candidate (Scottish Tory?????? offended in some way and was thrown out between acceptance of nomination and election.
I think the few Scottish polls show that the relentless Tory/MSM SNP attackathon has started to awaken a new tide of support for the SNP, my sense is that this new SNP surge could well push the SNP above 55% on 7th May. I think David Cameron may well have just broken the Union in pursuit of power. Should his power grab fail it will be a classic Greek tragedy, perhaps Boris could publish it in Greek.
The Survation trust ratings make interesting reading and will result in most of the don't knows who do vote, breaking for the SNP. It's very telling that the Tory BT supporters who flooded social media with relentless project fear drivel have now fallen completely silent, I think many of them are now waking up to the fact that they were conned by BT/MSM into joining in on Scottish bashing and trashing of iScotland's future prospects.
The SNP surge happened well before the last few weeks.
The state of the union is complex and fault for its demise or whatever will happen cannot fall on one person or party. This is history going back many many hundreds of years..
Sure it can. Tony Blair and his messed up devolution was a recipe for disaster and everything that's followed since is a consequence of attempting to gerrymander a Labour enclave.
What contribution do you think was made by Douglas-Home offering 'better' devolution if Scots voted No in 1979, then followed by Thatcher dropping devo down a well?
Not much contribution, as demonstrated by the negligible SNP vote until after Labour's messed up devolution.
The usual trope is that SNP's support flatlined because they were the midwives of Thatcherism.
The Tories dumping of devo (Declaration of Perth anyone?) ensured that a Labour government had to enact devolution of some sort in 1997. A 74/26 win in the referendum suggests there would have been consequences if they had not.
What course do you think Scottish politics might have taken had the Tories implemented devolution under Heath?
The Conservative First Minister of Scotland, Mr Teddy Taylor, hailed devolution as a step forward for Scotland, and the UK.
What course do you think Scottish politics might have taken had the Tories implemented devolution under Heath?
If it had led to a UK constitutional conversation and even (whisper it) federalism, who knows? Though if the Thatcherite revolution had still taken place I suspect we'd more or less be where we are.
@Jungleland If you're lurking you might want to have a look at Bradford East. I've sold Respect there for a pound. Others may go in for more though as it is a cert win.
@Jungleland If you're lurking you might want to have a look at Bradford East. I've sold Respect there for a pound. Others may go in for more though as it is a cert win.
What happens if David Ward changes party?
He can't.
NickPalmer said: » show previous quotes The ballot papers are immutable now - I could join the Tories or die (tough forced choice) and it won't make any difference. Nor can any candidates be added. WYSIWYG.
I wonder what Johann Lamont is thinking. I think her comment has turned a defeat into a rout.
Even without Lamont's outburst electing Murphy was always going to be fatal to SLab.
Really don't know what they were thinking there. Obviously Murphy might be far more qualified, competent and even inspirational (within the party) than Findlay but it was so obviously not what they required to counter the threat. I guess they didn't realise how big the threat was.
King Cole, I think that was referred to recently, though I don't recall it from the time. I think the Conservatives didn't have a candidate in that seat, as he was suspended to late to find a new one.
Top Tier Football Grounds in traditional Counties: Somerset has had one. (Bristol City were top flight late 70's)
Nottingham Forest is in Nottinghamshire (just), Notts County is in Nottingham City, although the name suggests otherwise.
Named after the "city and county of Nottingham" no doubt.
I know Bristolians who will be mighty cross if you suggest that their city is in Somerset.
I always thought it was in Gloucestershire.
Parts of North Bristol are in 'South Gloucestershire' It's all due to re-carving back the hated 'Avon' county.
Bristol is now officially its own ceremonial county but historically was sometimes seen as its own county and sometimes as part of Gloucestershire. Ashton Gate is in Bedminster, which was traditionally in Somerset (annexed by Bristol in 1831).
So Somerset has had a top flight team, while Gloucestershire has not (Rovers have never been in the top flight)
King Cole, I think that was referred to recently, though I don't recall it from the time. I think the Conservatives didn't have a candidate in that seat, as he was suspended to late to find a new one.
I wonder what Johann Lamont is thinking. I think her comment has turned a defeat into a rout.
Even without Lamont's outburst electing Murphy was always going to be fatal to SLab.
Murphy being elected kind of confirmed Lamont's view. I haven't seen many indications of greatness from Findlay & Boyack but I can't believe they'd be doing any worse, and they'd have some appeal to the Yes voting Labour supporters that up until recently Murphy, McTernan & McDougall considered vital to SLab recovery.
Interesting article on Clegg's troubles in Sheffield Hallam. I think its going to be a lot closer than the PB consensus has it.
An article that says little, very little fresh to suggest Clegg won't win. Any anger about cuts to a very unpopular local council budget, more than squared by the recent Labour council performance over the border in Rotherham. Clegg will hold his seat.
About the author of the article in The Telegraph: "Stanley joined the British Labour Party at the age of 15. He was Chair of Cambridge University Labour Club in 2003-4, and stood as the Labour candidate for his home constituency of Sevenoaks at the 2005 general election, where he came third."
Really don't know what they were thinking there. Obviously Murphy might be far more qualified, competent and even inspirational (within the party) than Findlay but it was so obviously not what they required to counter the threat. I guess they didn't realise how big the threat was.
Yes, it was a silly decision. (The fact that I'd backed Findlay is entirely irrelevant, of course!)
Well theres a clear nudge to tories which seems to have produced a market surge. Labour majority now out to a gobsmackin 90 on bet fair.
Before tories get too excited its only a fortnight since we saw all that pro Labour polling, tho' admittedly around easter.
I'd say from here it's a toss up between Tory largest and Tory majority. That's if this momentum continues.
David Cameron has come alive dishing Ed Miliband's meeting with Russell Brand and saying that Ed Miliband is hiding behind his lectern. The IFS stating that labour's 50p tax will only raise £100 million in revenue is staggering The momentum is all with the conservatives and with a royal baby about to derail Thursdays debates and dominate the news agenda the conservatives most seats must be a done deal and a small majority maybe not out of reach
If Labour do go down to a glorious defeat I'm at least glad that the S N P will be what the Lib Dems never were-a beating heart. In my lifetime the country has always been a nicer place to live when we haven't had a Tory Government.
Even Blair for all his right -wing posturing made one of his first acts getting rid of the homeless in Central London by appointing a 'tzar'whose job it was to find accommodation for them. And she did it brilliantly.
I despise Duncan Smith's malevolence and Cameron's ignorance. I just hope Nicola doesn't drop the baton like Clegg did five years ago
A key issue is the definition of affordable housing. In London, it often seems to mean "not quite as much as full market rate but loads more than most people can pay".
Just saw an advert this morning for the developer who built my house out in North Essex - here in central London they offering a 1 bed apartment for a tad under 800K!!!!
I also saw an advert for "vibrant Putney" - asking prices for 1 bed apartments over 700K
I had a 5 bed house with detached double garage and a decent garden (out in Essex) for a lot less than that.
Why should we expect 'a level of convergence'? And is that the same as a degree of convergence?
Traditionally polls have tended to converge closer to election day. I'd hazard a guess that it's because fewer "don't knows" need to be dealt with removing some of the uncertainty and systematic differences.
As '92 and other elections have shown, that doesn't always make it right.
If Labour do go down to a glorious defeat I'm at least glad that the S N P will be what the Lib Dems never were-a beating heart. In my lifetime the country has always been a nicer place to live when we haven't had a Tory Government. Even Blair for all his right -wing posturing made one of his first acts getting rid of the homeless in Central London by appointing a 'tzar'whose job it was to find accommodation for them. And she did it brilliantly. I despise Duncan Smith's malevolence and Cameron's ignorance. I just hope Nicola doesn't drop the baton as Clegg has done.
Top Tier Football Grounds in traditional Counties: Somerset has had one. (Bristol City were top flight late 70's)
Nottingham Forest is in Nottinghamshire (just), Notts County is in Nottingham City, although the name suggests otherwise.
Named after the "city and county of Nottingham" no doubt.
I know Bristolians who will be mighty cross if you suggest that their city is in Somerset.
I always thought it was in Gloucestershire.
Parts of North Bristol are in 'South Gloucestershire' It's all due to re-carving back the hated 'Avon' county.
Bristol is now officially its own ceremonial county but historically was sometimes seen as its own county and sometimes as part of Gloucestershire. Ashton Gate is in Bedminster, which was traditionally in Somerset (annexed by Bristol in 1831).
So Somerset has had a top flight team, while Gloucestershire has not (Rovers have never been in the top flight)
Don't forget that Eton has won the FA cup 2 or 3 times... Surely that gives Berkshire* a top flight team?
* or Buckinghamshire, depending on who you believe...
I wonder what Johann Lamont is thinking. I think her comment has turned a defeat into a rout.
Even without Lamont's outburst electing Murphy was always going to be fatal to SLab.
Really don't know what they were thinking there. Obviously Murphy might be far more qualified, competent and even inspirational (within the party) than Findlay but it was so obviously not what they required to counter the threat. I guess they didn't realise how big the threat was.
The immediate post-referendum analysis on Labour blogs about what to do about the 20-30% of Labour voters who voted Yes was, universally, to call them morons, write them off and look to pickup unionist votes from elsewhere.
Top Tier Football Grounds in traditional Counties: Somerset has had one. (Bristol City were top flight late 70's)
Nottingham Forest is in Nottinghamshire (just), Notts County is in Nottingham City, although the name suggests otherwise.
Named after the "city and county of Nottingham" no doubt.
I know Bristolians who will be mighty cross if you suggest that their city is in Somerset.
I always thought it was in Gloucestershire.
Parts of North Bristol are in 'South Gloucestershire' It's all due to re-carving back the hated 'Avon' county.
Bristol is now officially its own ceremonial county but historically was sometimes seen as its own county and sometimes as part of Gloucestershire. Ashton Gate is in Bedminster, which was traditionally in Somerset (annexed by Bristol in 1831).
So Somerset has had a top flight team, while Gloucestershire has not (Rovers have never been in the top flight)
Don't forget that Eton has won the FA cup 2 or 3 times... Surely that gives Berkshire* a top flight team?
* or Buckinghamshire, depending on who you believe...
Reading is in Berkshire, so already has a proper one.
Re Sheffield Hallam: Tim Stanley does not have a great prediction record (see his columns around the last US election), so I wouldn't put too much store in that article. I suspect Conservative voters will see Clegg home with a surprisingly decent majority.
Comments
Mate and his wife moved to Warwick ~3 years ago. She is apparently voting Green because she can't vote for Miliband... no idea about him.
Ashcroft: C 36 L 30 (Con +6)
Comres: C 36 L 32 (Con +4)
ICM: C35 L 32 (Con +3)
Survation: C33 L30 (Con+3)
Yougov: C35 L 34 (Con+1)
Opinium: C34 L 33 (Con+1)
TNS: C34 L 33 (Con+1)
Ipsos: C33 L35 (Lab+2)
Populus: C33 L36 (Lab+3)
Panelbase: C31 L34 (Lab+3)
When's Ipsos up next?
Latest hot Dyedwoolie tips
Beginning to look like a small swing back is settling in, which may well be down to late breakers clinging to nurse as is often the way coming into an election. Tory most seats has to be clear favourite now given the Scotgasm, but Cam as PM? He needs to be 30 plus ahead surely, a
Though anything over about 15 and Miliband will face backlash if he seizes the crown.
Seats wise, Norwich North still looks knife edge to me, there is far more Labour activity than last time but there is also local concern over the possible Lab SNP government on offer.
Great Yarmouth - UKIP falling back slightly might just deliver this to Labour, but Tory hold remains just favourite.
Scottish Tory hopes - back two seats and cover the win in the three border seats, they should take two of these, as I expect quiet Scot Tories to surge out given the strength of the SNP.
It's the first question they ask.
It's been level (with small variance, of course) for months now.
Edited extra bit: but thanks for your concern, and Mr. Topping likewise.
Edit - sorry Morris meant to quote your weight loss post, not this one
There's a few similar seats around the country.
My guess is Labour on around 300 seats, with the Tories on around 280 seats. Or possibly even parity around the 290 seat mark.
The Lib Dems would probably still be north of 30 seats and still in a position to be well and truly kingmakers. IMHO the rise of the SNP does make Cameron remaining as PM more likely.
Its a pretty standard tactic of no campaigns to hold a vague concept of something better that never materialises. When I lived in Australia in 1999 during their republic referendum many were saying vote no because the republic on offer wasn't a good one and there should be a better way to select the President than having it be unelected as proposed.
16 years later, Australia still is a monarchy and there's no sign of getting an elected rather than appointed President.
Astonishing it is almost the same marginality as Nuneaton which feels like a Labour sort of place.
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Engineer-caught-prostitute-Easton-ordered-pay/story-26399753-detail/story.html
Further tips - Greens a clear second in Norwich South, Wright to fall to fifth, will become a Green seat by 2025
Tories to be within 10% in Perth and NP and Banff and Buchan
"Stanley joined the British Labour Party at the age of 15. He was Chair of Cambridge University Labour Club in 2003-4, and stood as the Labour candidate for his home constituency of Sevenoaks at the 2005 general election, where he came third."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/24/johann-lamont-resigns-scottish-labour-party-leader
Wonder if the Jockalypse might be have any effect.
The Tories dumping of devo (Declaration of Perth anyone?) ensured that a Labour government had to enact devolution of some sort in 1997. A 74/26 win in the referendum suggests there would have been consequences if they had not.
@ malcolmg
Re Douglas-Home
Yup probably wasn't smart dropping that totally, as Scotland continued to vote in an ever more different way from England as the Thatcher/Major years ran on. But, I'd agree with those who have pointed out that Blair's devolution settlement was essentially unstable and was gerrymandering a "permanent" fiefdom for SLAB (with the Welsh merely tacked on as an afterthought).
It was only ever going to be stable as long as London, Edinburgh, and Cardiff had the same stripe of govt more or less. Once the Blair dominance started to unwind (as it would eventually) the fundamental flaws have appeared, made worse by SLAB visibly keeping the B team in Scotland and fuelling the impression that the A listers (Brown, Darling, Reid, Cook, Alexander etc ) still saw the real action in London having thrown the Scots a bone. It was a dreadful miscalculation, that has given the SNP a governmental platform and that is going to cost Labour a majority (and just possibly government) this time round and present them with all kinds of strategic issues beyond. Frankly I think Salmond screwed up the indy ref by really only bidding for Devo very max with gunboats. He should've had a better answer to the currency question. Nevertheless the SNP are winning the peace. If you are a lefty Scot- what's the point of SLAB? You can vote for an even leftier, competent experienced party that's out to get whatever pork it can for your neck of the woods (and fair enough from a Scottish viewpoint). I can't really see what SLAB can offer to outbid that in 2020, or 2025, or 2030 even unless the SNP drop the ball big time.
The bigger question remains either Scotland is heading for the exit anyway (and if they keep voting SNP in all elections it's when not if), or you try and solve the English question (which Labour and the Lib Dems want to ignore by talking utter rot about "cities" or "regions"), and somehow create a fair sustainable federal settlement where one of the "units" is 85% of the people and probably 90%+ of the wealth. Blair (or the Tories in the 80/90's) didn't want to think about that, hence we are where we are.
All you have to do is push it and it caves in.
Hmmn.
I've consistently argued here that labour's actual vote tends to under perform its poll score. It can;'t be that soft though, surely.
Obviously a candidate could be rejected by his/her party and/or state publically 'If elected, I will change parties and sit for X instead of Y' but they would have been officially elected as a candidate for the Y party.
"We have only to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down"
The Conservatives were unable to attract those voters, the test of election day is to see if UKIP has been able to attract them. Will turnout return to pre-1997 levels?
http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm
Fascinated to know why you need this detail.
What Labour didn't have to do was create a dog's breakfast of devolution. Labour could for example have addressed the West Lothian Question while implementing devolution - but that wasn't good for Labour's petty partisan interest so they didn't and now the chicken is coming home.
They also could have used our proper voting system, FPTP, rather than a system that was explicitly designed to try and get certain results.
They also could have implemented devolution in England at the same time as Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland - in which case now we'd be electing a UK government for dealing with UK issues and Scottish MPs would be genuine equals. But again that didn't suit the Labour party so wasn't done.
There's plenty of things that could and should have been done differently but weren't deliberately. If any genuinely equal attempt at addressing the issues had been done, we wouldn't be dealing with this today.
Yes I was thinking the same Mr Divvie.
Nevertheless, in some senses the person we are both thinking of was correct.
yournextmp.com for cross-checking
Interesting. IF the Lab vote is half as soft as Farage claims, add in a last minute swing to the government and incumbency, and the 'real' swing might be zero.
Before tories get too excited its only a fortnight since we saw all that pro Labour polling, tho' admittedly around easter.
I'd say from here it's a toss up between Tory largest and Tory majority. That's if this momentum continues.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2015/04/why-would-ed-miliband-even-want-to-woo-russell-brand/
NickPalmer said:
» show previous quotes
The ballot papers are immutable now - I could join the Tories or die (tough forced choice) and it won't make any difference. Nor can any candidates be added. WYSIWYG.
So Somerset has had a top flight team, while Gloucestershire has not (Rovers have never been in the top flight)
I haven't seen many indications of greatness from Findlay & Boyack but I can't believe they'd be doing any worse, and they'd have some appeal to the Yes voting Labour supporters that up until recently Murphy, McTernan & McDougall considered vital to SLab recovery.
Must be a lot of worry in Labour hq now. Governments & esp tories normally rally support last 10 days of campaigns if you look at stats.
6% lead starts to get v close to tory majority esp with the LDs in big trouble e.g. in south west.
Even Blair for all his right -wing posturing made one of his first acts getting rid of the homeless in Central London by appointing a 'tzar'whose job it was to find accommodation for them. And she did it brilliantly.
I despise Duncan Smith's malevolence and Cameron's ignorance. I just hope Nicola doesn't drop the baton like Clegg did five years ago
I also saw an advert for "vibrant Putney" - asking prices for 1 bed apartments over 700K
I had a 5 bed house with detached double garage and a decent garden (out in Essex) for a lot less than that.
As '92 and other elections have shown, that doesn't always make it right.
* or Buckinghamshire, depending on who you believe...