LAB 2 seats lower than previous BJESUS low Tories 1 below previous BJESUS high LD equal BJESUS low Others 4 higher than previous high.
Since BJESUS started CON/LD stayed remarkably flat LAB/SNP is responsible for virtually all change in BJESUS
Every BJESUS has predicted EICIPM. We will see next week if that was right/wrong.
28.4.15 LAB 288 (292) CON 272(271) LD 29(31) UKIP 2(2) Others 59(54) (Ed is crap is PM) Last weeks BJESUS in brackets BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) Using current polling adjusted for 8 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!
Joking apart - the housing issue and the worries / problems of 'generation rent' are a very real issue that all parties shy away from. The 1000 pound throbbing gorilla in the corner is our insane planning laws. The problem of supply and demand can never be resolved until supply is liberalised. We have a huge, huge demand for housing and a gajillion builders / developers ready to build. The problem is that the state has decided to place very very severe restrictions on the supply. We need a 'brave' politician (in the Sir Humphrey sense) to make it very very much easier to obtain planning permission. This would of course collapse the value of land banks and housing. So bad for oldies and existing property owners but great for those who are currently excluded from the property ladder.
I don't want any new housing built, no demand from me., I like my environment as it is. Disgraceful what the coalition has done with planning laws, surely driven by campaign contributions by developers.
Prefer to see demand tackled by taxing away foreign investor demand and enforcing immigration laws. All those 'luxury' flats are driven by foreign investors not locals desiring modest houses.
@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!
Joking apart - the housing issue and the worries / problems of 'generation rent' are a very real issue that all parties shy away from. The 1000 pound throbbing gorilla in the corner is our insane planning laws. The problem of supply and demand can never be resolved until supply is liberalised. We have a huge, huge demand for housing and a gajillion builders / developers ready to build. The problem is that the state has decided to place very very severe restrictions on the supply. We need a 'brave' politician (in the Sir Humphrey sense) to make it very very much easier to obtain planning permission. This would of course collapse the value of land banks and housing. So bad for oldies and existing property owners but great for those who are currently excluded from the property ladder.
Planning laws are a problem, but not one of the major ones. A big problem is the sort of homes we culturally want: generally the 'ideal' for many people is a detached house with nice garden (preferably front and back), and a garage with two or three parking space outside. Such houses swallow up available land.
Sadly the nightmarish developments built in the 1960s and 1970s hurt the public image of high-rise housing. This is improving, but too slowly. If you want people to live anywhere near the centre of any city, it has to be high-rise. But we should not repeat the mistakes of the past.
We should also get over this obsession with tractor-statting house build numbers, and instead concentrate on building communities.
You can say that again! Dale rates Danny Alexander's Inverness seat as being "a dead cert hold for the LiDems. The bookies on the other hand will give you odds of 7/1 against him holding onto it and 1/6 on an SNP gain. This was the first of the LibDems seats in his list of predicted results ...... needless to say I didn't get any further.
Charlie looks terrible in that photograph. Its a real shame. The party admitting that he is in trouble in his seat doesn't exactly help either.
Curious that Moore's seat does not seem to be one of those getting the additional resources. Maybe just didn't fit with the narrative to announce it.
This Guardian piece is broadly in line with reports I'm receiving, albeit not quite so rosy for the yellow peril but certainly better than the raw Scottish polling would suggest.
Moore's seat hasn't received extra resources because it was already in the top tier.
I still think they will be left with no Scottish seats south of Inverness. I have been saying this for months and I have not seen anything in the polling indicating otherwise.
line.
I think Thurso will hold on. And maybe Charlie although that seems less likely now. Carmichael is safe. After that I really struggle.
If Carmichael does crawl from the wreckage, is he worth a punt at around 20/1 for next LibDem leader?
I would say not. Firstly, he is not very good. Secondly, the Lib Dem party is going to be a lot more English after these elections. The Scottish lib Dems are going to lose about 90% of their seats and all of their old grandees who have dominated the party for so long.
If overall losses are just over 50% the complexion of the party will have changed. It seems to me that the Lib Dems are going to lose most of their Celtic connections with major losses in the south west as well. What remains will choose one of their own.
What is interesting for the LibDems now is how the expectations part of the news management has kicked in already. By saying they will get top whack 35 seats if they then get only 25 it isnt that horrendous,whereas if you look at where they have come from it really is horrendous.
You are right. Even worse will be the loss of third party status to the SNP. The Lib Dems have really struggled to be heard in this election. It is a shadow of things to come. 2010 and the Cleggasm seems a far away country.
@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!
[snipped for length]
Short of sticking up skyscrapers in Hyde Park, how would that work in central London?
One actual gorilla is subsidies for landlords, aka housing benefits.
As Antifrank pointed out recently, London has 3 dimensions and we only really use two of them. For such a large city London has an amazingly low population density. If there is such huge demand for affordable flats in London then let's build upwards. We allow any number of huge skyscrpaers for business - just look at how the London skyline has changed in recent years. Allowing the same for residential property would be a sensible thing IMHO.
As rcs1000 says, we are seeing more of this, though generally aimed at the affluent buyer. In the past, tower blocks have been associated with social problems. But as to population density, London already has the highest in Britain, and it would be higher still were it not for our parks.
It's still pretty low compared to most other cities of its stature.
The density of Islington, which is the highest in the UK, is 13,886 per square kilometer.
Manhattan, even though a huge amount of the space is offices and Central Park takes up the entire centre of the island, is 25,846/km2.
Kwun Tong in Hong King is 57,120/km2.
If the UK had the same density of Kwun Tong the entire population would fit in a square of 20 miles by 20 miles.
@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!
[snipped for length]
Short of sticking up skyscrapers in Hyde Park, how would that work in central London?
One actual gorilla is subsidies for landlords, aka housing benefits.
As Antifrank pointed out recently, London has 3 dimensions and we only really use two of them. For such a large city London has an amazingly low population density. If there is such huge demand for affordable flats in London then let's build upwards. We allow any number of huge skyscrpaers for business - just look at how the London skyline has changed in recent years. Allowing the same for residential property would be a sensible thing IMHO.
As rcs1000 says, we are seeing more of this, though generally aimed at the affluent buyer. In the past, tower blocks have been associated with social problems. But as to population density, London already has the highest in Britain, and it would be higher still were it not for our parks.
A visual representation of London's density of population (or lack):
"The private polling data and canvassing returns suggest the party is in the lead in several constituencies including East Dunbartonshire, being defended by Jo Swinson, and West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, which is held by Sir Robert Smith.
At least five more seats where the Lib Dems are fighting to overturn an SNP lead, including Edinburgh West, Argyll & Bute and Inverness, could be held because of an upsurge in tactical voting by pro-UK party supporters, the party believes.
The Lib Dems also expect to hold Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, which is the most northerly seat on the UK mainland and being defended by John Thurso, as well as Orkney and Shetland just to the north, one of the party’s safest, held by Alistair Carmichael, the Scotland secretary."
Charlie looks terrible in that photograph. Its a real shame. The party admitting that he is in trouble in his seat doesn't exactly help either.
Curious that Moore's seat does not seem to be one of those getting the additional resources. Maybe just didn't fit with the narrative to announce it.
This Guardian piece is broadly in line with reports I'm receiving, albeit not quite so rosy for the yellow peril but certainly better than the raw Scottish polling would suggest.
Moore's seat hasn't received extra resources because it was already in the top tier.
I still think they will be left with no Scottish seats south of Inverness. I have been saying this for months and I have not seen anything in the polling indicating otherwise.
@Dair of this parish did mention that he thought Thurso has the only genuine personal vote in Scottish politics so perhaps not out the question. I'll be very surprised to collect the slightly larger profit I have on the Lib Dems there, mind. Mike Crockhart of Edinburgh West is intriguingly poised on the models too, a touch of tactical voting could see him over the line.
I think Thurso will hold on. And maybe Charlie although that seems less likely now. Carmichael is safe. After that I really struggle.
If Carmichael does crawl from the wreckage, is he worth a punt at around 20/1 for next LibDem leader?
I'm on him at 20/1. He has previously said he doesn't want the job, though.
TAUNTON DEANE Jeremy Browne Maj: 3,993 over the Conservatives Prediction: POSSIBLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN – 50/50 Boundary changes last time increased Browne’s majority from just over 500. I don’t know how popular he is locally. Seen as a very good minister it was a shock when he was sacked by Clegg. Might he stand down? I’d say this was a 50/50 call.
GORDON Sir Malcolm Bruce (retiring – Christine Jardine selected Maj: 6,748 over the SNP Prediction: 100% LIBDEM HOLD
NORTH EAST FIFE Sir Menzies Campbell (retiring) Maj: 9.348 Prediction: LIBDEM HOLD The Conservatives will be targeting this seat but it’s a remote hope for them. The new LibDem candidate may suffer a dent in their majority but unless Ming Campbell’s personal vote is more than the norm, this seat should stay Liberal Democrat.
EDINBURGH WEST Michael Crockart Maj: 3,803 Prediction: PROBABLE LIBDEM HOLD This seat went LibDem in 1997 and although the LibDem majority plummeted by 10,000 last time it is difficult to see them losing. Prior to 1997 it was a Tory seat but last time Labour beat the Tories into second place. A Labour victory is not impossible to imagine, but still rather unlikely.
BERMONDSEY & OLD SOUTHWARK Simon Hughes Maj: 8,530 Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD No comment needed.
ROSS, SKYE AND LOCHABER Charles Kennedy Maj: 13,070 Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD Out on his own, and despite an invisible presence in this Parliament, there would need to be a miracle to shift Charles Kennedy.
EASTBOURNE Stephen Lloyd Maj: 3.435 Prediction: PROBABLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN Won in 2010 from Nigel Wateson, Steohen Lloyd may hang on, but I’d expect the Labour vote to at least double at the expense of the LibDems, so yet again, a lot depends on how many votes the Tories lose to UKIP.
WEST ABERDEENSHIRE & KINCARDINE Sir Robert Smith Maj: 3.684 Prediction: PROBABLE LIBDEM HOLD Although the LibDem majority was halved last time, it’s difficult to see anything other than another victory for Sir Robert Smith.
EAST DUNBARTONSHIRE Jo Swinson Maj: 2,184 Prediction: LABOUR GAIN Jo Swinson is popular but all the political portents are against her. She will be a major loss to the LibDems.
BRADFORD EAST David Ward Maj: 365 Prediction: DEAD CERT LABOUR GAIN One of the nastier LibDem MPs, few will shed tears at his demise.
CEREDIGION Mark Williams Maj: 8,324 Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD
BRISTOL WEST Stephen Williams Maj: 11.336 Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD
@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!
Joking apart - the housing issue and the worries / problems of 'generation rent' are a very real issue that all parties shy away from. The 1000 pound throbbing gorilla in the corner is our insane planning laws. The problem of supply and demand can never be resolved until supply is liberalised. We have a huge, huge demand for housing and a gajillion builders / developers ready to build. The problem is that the state has decided to place very very severe restrictions on the supply. We need a 'brave' politician (in the Sir Humphrey sense) to make it very very much easier to obtain planning permission. This would of course collapse the value of land banks and housing. So bad for oldies and existing property owners but great for those who are currently excluded from the property ladder.
I don't want any new housing built, no demand from me., I like my environment as it is. Disgraceful what the coalition has done with planning laws, surely driven by campaign contributions by developers.
Prefer to see demand tackled by taxing away foreign investor demand and enforcing immigration laws. All those 'luxury' flats are driven by foreign investors not locals desiring modest houses.
Yes: all our problems can be solved by taking away the freedom of people to build houses.
@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
.
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!
[snipped for length]
Short of sticking up skyscrapers in Hyde Park, how would that work in central London?
One actual gorilla is subsidies for landlords, aka housing benefits.
As Antifrank pointed out recently, London has 3 dimensions and we only really use two of them. For such a large city London has an amazingly low population density. If there is such huge demand for affordable flats in London then let's build upwards. We allow any number of huge skyscrpaers for business - just look at how the London skyline has changed in recent years. Allowing the same for residential property would be a sensible thing IMHO.
As rcs1000 says, we are seeing more of this, though generally aimed at the affluent buyer. In the past, tower blocks have been associated with social problems. But as to population density, London already has the highest in Britain, and it would be higher still were it not for our parks.
It's still pretty low compared to most other cities of its stature.
The density of Islington, which is the highest in the UK, is 13,886 per square kilometer.
Manhattan, even though a huge amount of the space is offices and Central Park takes up the entire centre of the island, is 25,846/km2.
Kwun Tong in Hong King is 57,120/km2.
If the UK had the same density of Kwun Tong the entire population would fit in a square of 20 miles by 20 miles.
Thats maybe not a good thing though is it. We 'could' of course have a much higher population density. Wether its wanted or desireable is another matter.
@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!
[snipped for length]
Short of sticking up skyscrapers in Hyde Park, how would that work in central London?
One actual gorilla is subsidies for landlords, aka housing benefits.
As Antifrank pointed out recently, London has 3 dimensions and we only really use two of them. For such a large city London has an amazingly low population density. If there is such huge demand for affordable flats in London then let's build upwards. We allow any number of huge skyscrpaers for business - just look at how the London skyline has changed in recent years. Allowing the same for residential property would be a sensible thing IMHO.
As rcs1000 says, we are seeing more of this, though generally aimed at the affluent buyer. In the past, tower blocks have been associated with social problems. But as to population density, London already has the highest in Britain, and it would be higher still were it not for our parks.
A visual representation of London's density of population (or lack):
That's a fscinating graphic! Thanks. Conforms just how relatively low rise London is. In fact the whole of the UK is still well over 90% green fields. Even outside the Green Belt. We do actually have alot of land to build on. We just choose not to.
@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
.
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!
[snipped for length]
Short of sticking up skyscrapers in Hyde Park, how would that work in central London?
One actual gorilla is subsidies for landlords, aka housing benefits.
As Antifrank pointed out recently, London has 3 dimensions and we only really use two of them. For such a large city London has an amazingly low population density. If there is such huge demand for affordable flats in London then let's build upwards. We allow any number of huge skyscrpaers for business - just look at how the London skyline has changed in recent years. Allowing the same for residential property would be a sensible thing IMHO.
As rcs1000 says, we are seeing more of this, though generally aimed at the affluent buyer. In the past, tower blocks have been associated with social problems. But as to population density, London already has the highest in Britain, and it would be higher still were it not for our parks.
It's still pretty low compared to most other cities of its stature.
The density of Islington, which is the highest in the UK, is 13,886 per square kilometer.
Manhattan, even though a huge amount of the space is offices and Central Park takes up the entire centre of the island, is 25,846/km2.
Kwun Tong in Hong King is 57,120/km2.
If the UK had the same density of Kwun Tong the entire population would fit in a square of 20 miles by 20 miles.
Thats maybe not a good thing though is it. We 'could' of course have a much higher population density. Wether its wanted or desireable is another matter.
I've long been of the opinion that we will see the vote share of around 36CON 32LAB and that will translate to something like 280CON 265LAB - give or take 5 seats depending on the LD/SNP totals.
Pretty much gives neither party an easy route to govern.
I think there remains the possibility of a 1% swing either way (more likely to the blues given the momentum and SNP situation)
I also think the tories could still spook another 1% from the blue kipper contingent if they press hard on UKIP votes translating into a LAB gov.
Turnout, voter apathy and the re-registration process are the unknown factors and could still impact massively.
As Farage pointed out in the BBC debate vs assorted student lefties
John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) 27/04/2015 21:32 Rumour that Labour's 7th pledge will be to repeal the law of supply and demand. pic.twitter.com/tNlaZwqXX6
@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!
[snipped for length]
Short of sticking up skyscrapers in Hyde Park, how would that work in central London?
One actual gorilla is subsidies for landlords, aka housing benefits.
As Antifrank pointed out recently, London has 3 dimensions and we only really use two of them. For such a large city London has an amazingly low population density. If there is such huge demand for affordable flats in London then let's build upwards. We allow any number of huge skyscrpaers for business - just look at how the London skyline has changed in recent years. Allowing the same for residential property would be a sensible thing IMHO.
As rcs1000 says, we are seeing more of this, though generally aimed at the affluent buyer. In the past, tower blocks have been associated with social problems. But as to population density, London already has the highest in Britain, and it would be higher still were it not for our parks.
A visual representation of London's density of population (or lack):
That's a fscinating graphic! Thanks. Conforms just how relatively low rise London is. In fact the whole of the UK is still well over 90% green fields. Even outside the Green Belt. We do actually have alot of land to build on. We just choose not to.
i'm not sure that saying London should be more like Mexico city or Sao Paulo is a great arguement.
@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!
snip .
Planning laws are a problem, but not one of the major ones. A big problem is the sort of homes we culturally want: generally the 'ideal' for many people is a detached house with nice garden (preferably front and back), and a garage with two or three parking space outside. Such houses swallow up available land.
Sadly the nightmarish developments built in the 1960s and 1970s hurt the public image of high-rise housing. This is improving, but too slowly. If you want people to live anywhere near the centre of any city, it has to be high-rise. But we should not repeat the mistakes of the past.
We should also get over this obsession with tractor-statting house build numbers, and instead concentrate on building communities.
The rent control and bombing wasn't a quip. It is a genuine conclusion from a Swedish economist, Assar Lindbeck. Ed M claimed at the weekend that he had read his book.
On topic, why wouldn't the normal outlier rules apply to an out-of-character poll from a single pollster? The last notable case would be 'that' Yougov poll before the indy referendum; afaicr the actual result was much closer to the average of Yougov polls over those 2-3 months.
Still, we got a nice, shiny Vow out of it, nationalism killed stone dead yet again.
Bizarre. That's one of the rare occasions when using a scantily clad woman in an advert is entirely justifiable. Have we really reached the point when encouraging people to buy a product to be fitter is offensive?
@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!
[snipped for length]
Short of sticking up skyscrapers in Hyde Park, how would that work in central London?
One actual gorilla is subsidies for landlords, aka housing benefits.
As Antifrank pointed out recently, London has 3 dimensions and we only really use two of them. For such a large city London has an amazingly low population density. If there is such huge demand for affordable flats in London then let's build upwards. We allow any number of huge skyscrpaers for business - just look at how the London skyline has changed in recent years. Allowing the same for residential property would be a sensible thing IMHO.
As rcs1000 says, we are seeing more of this, though generally aimed at the affluent buyer. In the past, tower blocks have been associated with social problems. But as to population density, London already has the highest in Britain, and it would be higher still were it not for our parks.
A visual representation of London's density of population (or lack):
That's a fscinating graphic! Thanks. Conforms just how relatively low rise London is. In fact the whole of the UK is still well over 90% green fields. Even outside the Green Belt. We do actually have alot of land to build on. We just choose not to.
@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!
snip .
Planning laws are a problem, but not one of the major ones. A big problem is the sort of homes we culturally want: generally the 'ideal' for many people is a detached house with nice garden (preferably front and back), and a garage with two or three parking space outside. Such houses swallow up available land.
Sadly the nightmarish developments built in the 1960s and 1970s hurt the public image of high-rise housing. This is improving, but too slowly. If you want people to live anywhere near the centre of any city, it has to be high-rise. But we should not repeat the mistakes of the past.
We should also get over this obsession with tractor-statting house build numbers, and instead concentrate on building communities.
The rent control and bombing wasn't a quip. It is a genuine conclusion from a Swedish economist, Assar Lindbeck. Ed M claimed at the weekend that he had read his book.
@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!
Joking apart - the housing issue and the worries / problems of 'generation rent' are a very real issue that all parties shy away from. The 1000 pound throbbing gorilla in the corner is our insane planning laws. The problem of supply and demand can never be resolved until supply is liberalised. We have a huge, huge demand for housing and a gajillion builders / developers ready to build. The problem is that the state has decided to place very very severe restrictions on the supply. We need a 'brave' politician (in the Sir Humphrey sense) to make it very very much easier to obtain planning permission. This would of course collapse the value of land banks and housing. So bad for oldies and existing property owners but great for those who are currently excluded from the property ladder.
I don't want any new housing built, no demand from me., I like my environment as it is. Disgraceful what the coalition has done with planning laws, surely driven by campaign contributions by developers.
Prefer to see demand tackled by taxing away foreign investor demand and enforcing immigration laws. All those 'luxury' flats are driven by foreign investors not locals desiring modest houses.
Yes: all our problems can be solved by taking away the freedom of people to build houses.
Since BJESUS started CON/LD stayed remarkably flat LAB/SNP is responsible for virtually all change in BJESUS
Every BJESUS has predicted EICIPM. We will see next week if that was right/wrong.
Wrong .... and then some ....
As I say we will see whether EICIPM or EMWNBPM is the outcome in 9 days time.
Betfair has the former as slight favorite but looks like being close thanks to SLP collapse.
I see ARSE has SNP less than 40 seats LAB circa 240 seats I cant see how that would be possible myself but we will see.
I regret to advise you old thing that you are simply faltering in the wake of my ARSE.
Like many others before you who fall by the wayside as the tide from my ARSE overwhelms them in a torrent of forecasting brilliance that will not allow even a pale and wretchedly lacklustre imitation to share even a scrap of the limelight and acclaim.
Can someone tell me why on earth Miliband is courting Russell Brand?
Is that the 'I wouldn't vote Russell Brand?'
I wonder if he will promote little Eddy Weddy and his little Bookie Wookie at the same time. I know I'm not in the target demographic, but the word tosser comes to mind. Apply as you see fit.
Very few posters or stickers here in North Herts, the LibDem and Con ones normally on display are absent. The most obvious (and only one I remember seeing) is a Green Party banner, located in a very desirable mansion tax eligible location.
@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!
Joking apart - the housing issue and the worries / problems of 'generation rent' are a very real issue that all parties shy away from. The 1000 pound throbbing gorilla in the corner is our insane planning laws. The problem of supply and demand can never be resolved until supply is liberalised. We have a huge, huge demand for housing and a gajillion builders / developers ready to build. The problem is that the state has decided to place very very severe restrictions on the supply. We need a 'brave' politician (in the Sir Humphrey sense) to make it very very much easier to obtain planning permission. This would of course collapse the value of land banks and housing. So bad for oldies and existing property owners but great for those who are currently excluded from the property ladder.
I don't want any new housing built, no demand from me., I like my environment as it is. Disgraceful what the coalition has done with planning laws, surely driven by campaign contributions by developers.
Prefer to see demand tackled by taxing away foreign investor demand and enforcing immigration laws. All those 'luxury' flats are driven by foreign investors not locals desiring modest houses.
A Dacha in the Birch Forest, and the Steppe stretching into the distance is all rather beautiful. I can see why you want to keep it that way.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 25th April Projection) :
Con 305 (+1) .. Lab 246 (-3) .. LibDem 30 (NC) .. SNP 42 (+2) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain Warwickshire North - TCTC Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 25 Apr - No Change.
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
Allegedly, Victoria Ayling, asked the following question during a local debate:
"What happens when the renewable energy runs out?"
I forecast third last week. Glad to see Ashcroft is in line with that.
On another point. As London becomes less English, I suspect that both European and non EU migrants are less obsessed with houses as opposed to apartments. There may not be the objection to building up that yhere once was, particularly if good quality. Not many keen gardners out there in the next generation either.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 25th April Projection) :
Con 305 (+1) .. Lab 246 (-3) .. LibDem 30 (NC) .. SNP 42 (+2) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Can someone tell me why on earth Miliband is courting Russell Brand?
Is that the 'I wouldn't vote Russell Brand?'
I wonder if he will promote little Eddy Weddy and his little Bookie Wookie at the same time. I know I'm not in the target demographic, but the word tosser comes to mind. Apply as you see fit.
Very few posters or stickers here in North Herts, the LibDem and Con ones normally on display are absent. The most obvious (and only one I remember seeing) is a Green Party banner, located in a very desirable mansion tax eligible location.
The GE as a whole just seems very very low-key I feel. 5 years agao it was all Cleggasm and the debates, whereas this time.....
Can someone tell me why on earth Miliband is courting Russell Brand?
Can only speak as I have found from people I know in here Essex...
Girls swoon over him and think he is v clever Men think he is a total prick
But he prob could help with the female lefty vote a la yesterday's thread
My youngest worked with him on a film, she had never met him before and he insisted on a cup of tea and a chat before the scene was filmed. She said he was a total gentleman, she had been told by the make up girls to ignore all the stories about him as he is a nice bloke to work with, my daughter liked him as a person.
USA - Hilary "...a disturbing pattern of foreign contributions and enormous speaking fees for Bill Clinton that appear to be timed to coincide with preferential actions the State Department took while Mrs. Clinton was secretary of state."
A key issue is the definition of affordable housing. In London, it often seems to mean "not quite as much as full market rate but loads more than most people can pay".
It's a percentage of current market rates. So in, say, Bolton Gardens, it would be several million quid for a one-bed flat, while in Bolton, it would be a bit less.
USA - Hilary "...a disturbing pattern of foreign contributions and enormous speaking fees for Bill Clinton that appear to be timed to coincide with preferential actions the State Department took while Mrs. Clinton was secretary of state."
Can someone tell me why on earth Miliband is courting Russell Brand?
Is that the 'I wouldn't vote Russell Brand?'
I wonder if he will promote little Eddy Weddy and his little Bookie Wookie at the same time. I know I'm not in the target demographic, but the word tosser comes to mind. Apply as you see fit.
Very few posters or stickers here in North Herts, the LibDem and Con ones normally on display are absent. The most obvious (and only one I remember seeing) is a Green Party banner, located in a very desirable mansion tax eligible location.
The GE as a whole just seems very very low-key I feel. 5 years agao it was all Cleggasm and the debates, whereas this time.....
Post election there will be an interesting debate to have over the role and effect of the debates in the 2010 and 2015 campaigns.
I get the impression that some parties were assuming that the debates would be dominant as they were in 2010, and had an election plan based on that. The low key impact of the debates has thrown the plans of some into confusion. The LibDems in particular, I think fall into this category.
I suspect the debates were never going to be as important as in 2010 because they were not 'New', we have had them before so the exciting lustre was already dimmed even if they had followed a similar format to 2010.
The big question now is will the SNP issue have the same impact as the Falklands crisis did which turned the votes to Margaret Thatcher and the conservatives enabling them to win the General Election
Was invited to a coming-of-age celebration (a lady had turned 40, so perhaps it was a commiseration) at a local hostelry last might.
Among the ~60 people, there was a wide range of political loyalties and quite a lively discussion. Those in favour of wish-lists collapsed under the avalanche of "how will you do it/pay for it" questions, but the consensus of the vast majority was 'don't rock the boat' and 'steady as she goes'. Even non-supporters and critics thought the coalition had done a reasonable and fair job under the circumstances of a peacetime coalition and unforseen events.
@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!
[snipped for length]
Short of sticking up skyscrapers in Hyde Park, how would that work in central London?
One actual gorilla is subsidies for landlords, aka housing benefits.
As Antifrank pointed out recently, London has 3 dimensions and we only really use two of them. For such a large city London has an amazingly low population density. If there is such huge demand for affordable flats in London then let's build upwards. We allow any number of huge skyscrpaers for business - just look at how the London skyline has changed in recent years. Allowing the same for residential property would be a sensible thing IMHO.
As rcs1000 says, we are seeing more of this, though generally aimed at the affluent buyer. In the past, tower blocks have been associated with social problems. But as to population density, London already has the highest in Britain, and it would be higher still were it not for our parks.
A visual representation of London's density of population (or lack):
That's a fscinating graphic! Thanks. Conforms just how relatively low rise London is. In fact the whole of the UK is still well over 90% green fields. Even outside the Green Belt. We do actually have alot of land to build on. We just choose not to.
We like low rise and we like green fields.
Wasn’t it quite common to rent up to WWII? Or even, since the middle classes did it, usual!
"The private polling data and canvassing returns suggest the party is in the lead in several constituencies including East Dunbartonshire, being defended by Jo Swinson, and West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, which is held by Sir Robert Smith.
At least five more seats where the Lib Dems are fighting to overturn an SNP lead, including Edinburgh West, Argyll & Bute and Inverness, could be held because of an upsurge in tactical voting by pro-UK party supporters, the party believes.
The Lib Dems also expect to hold Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, which is the most northerly seat on the UK mainland and being defended by John Thurso, as well as Orkney and Shetland just to the north, one of the party’s safest, held by Alistair Carmichael, the Scotland secretary."
Charlie looks terrible in that photograph. Its a real shame. The party admitting that he is in trouble in his seat doesn't exactly help either.
Curious that Moore's seat does not seem to be one of those getting the additional resources. Maybe just didn't fit with the narrative to announce it.
This Guardian piece is broadly in line with reports I'm receiving, albeit not quite so rosy for the yellow peril but certainly better than the raw Scottish polling would suggest.
Moore's seat hasn't received extra resources because it was already in the top tier.
I still think they will be left with no Scottish seats south of Inverness. I have been saying this for months and I have not seen anything in the polling indicating otherwise.
@Dair of this parish did mention that he thought Thurso has the only genuine personal vote in Scottish politics so perhaps not out the question. I'll be very surprised to collect the slightly larger profit I have on the Lib Dems there, mind. Mike Crockhart of Edinburgh West is intriguingly poised on the models too, a touch of tactical voting could see him over the line.
I think Thurso will hold on. And maybe Charlie although that seems less likely now. Carmichael is safe. After that I really struggle.
If Carmichael does crawl from the wreckage, is he worth a punt at around 20/1 for next LibDem leader?
God help them if that useless thick halfwitted buffoon is their only hope
For the first time ever Dorset will have a top flight football team next year. How many of the proper counties on their proper boundaries have not had one? Cornwall, Shropshire, Worcestershire, Herefordshire, Cheshire, Huntingdonshire, Cambridgeshire and Somerset spring to mind (Devon if Plymouth have never made it). There must be a few others. Would Sunderland once have been in County Durham?
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 25th April Projection) :
Con 305 (+1) .. Lab 246 (-3) .. LibDem 30 (NC) .. SNP 42 (+2) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
I see the ARSE is slowly converging on my competition predictions. Just shift a few of the yellow peril over to the yellower peril and you'll nearly be there, Jack.
Bizarre. That's one of the rare occasions when using a scantily clad woman in an advert is entirely justifiable. Have we really reached the point when encouraging people to buy a product to be fitter is offensive?
Disagree with you here. It's got nothing to do with encouraging fitness and everything to do with objectification and figure fascism. The company know this and are using the image specifically to provoke, and thereby garner publicity and sales. There is no reason or need to look like that, or look like the male version of the poster to go to the beach. You're beach ready when you put your trunks or bikini on, regardless of your shape. Still, long live the patriarchy and everything.
@toadmeister: If @Ed_Miliband really is seeking a celebrity endorsement from @RustyRockets, he must be absolutely desperate twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
What on earth can Miliband hope to gain from meeting a gimp like Russell Brand? I think I know. He's an utter loon - but a loon who's able to put his finger on something that detects quite well the various issues that get lefties wound up. Ed's general weakness is that he's very good at sensing where issues lie and what people worry about - just mindbogglingly shite at deciding what the right policy response should be. Brand will help him deepen his sensing strength - but also exacerbate his policy weakness.
How can you say that? The next Labour government is going to preside over a new housing construction boom.
Oh dear. Someone quipped over the weekend that there are two great ways to destroy a city - bombing and rent controls. Ed prefers the latter!
Joking apart - the housing issue and the worries / problems of 'generation rent' are a very real issue that all parties shy away from. The 1000 pound throbbing gorilla in the corner is our insane planning laws. The problem of supply and demand can never be resolved until supply is liberalised. We have a huge, huge demand for housing and a gajillion builders / developers ready to build. The problem is that the state has decided to place very very severe restrictions on the supply. We need a 'brave' politician (in the Sir Humphrey sense) to make it very very much easier to obtain planning permission. This would of course collapse the value of land banks and housing. So bad for oldies and existing property owners but great for those who are currently excluded from the property ladder.
UK planning regulations and consent procedures are based on an unstated assumption that the population is static or growing only slowly; therefore, there has always been room and a need to consider the impact of building before allowing housebuilders to just plough ahead.
If you add 7 million to the population in 15 years then something's not fit for purpose, but it might not be your planning system, necessarily.
For the first time ever Dorset will have a top flight football team next year. How many of the proper counties on their proper boundaries have not had one? Cornwall, Shropshire, Worcestershire, Herefordshire, Cheshire, Huntingdonshire, Cambridgeshire and Somerset spring to mind (Devon if Plymouth have never made it). There must be a few others. Would Sunderland once have been in County Durham?
For the first time ever Dorset will have a top flight football team next year. How many of the proper counties on their proper boundaries have not had one? Cornwall, Shropshire, Worcestershire, Herefordshire, Cheshire, Huntingdonshire, Cambridgeshire and Somerset spring to mind (Devon if Plymouth have never made it). There must be a few others. Would Sunderland once have been in County Durham?
None down here in Kent, Southam....
Charlton Athletic? On the old boundaries?
Don’t think Surrey has either, although is Crystal Palace’s ground in what was once Surrey?
Comments
LAB 2 seats lower than previous BJESUS low Tories 1 below previous BJESUS high LD equal BJESUS low Others 4 higher than previous high.
Since BJESUS started CON/LD stayed remarkably flat LAB/SNP is responsible for virtually all change in BJESUS
Every BJESUS has predicted EICIPM. We will see next week if that was right/wrong.
28.4.15 LAB 288 (292) CON 272(271) LD 29(31) UKIP 2(2) Others 59(54) (Ed is crap is PM)
Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 8 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
Danny Alexander "Dead Cert LibDem Hold" ho ho ho
Prefer to see demand tackled by taxing away foreign investor demand and enforcing immigration laws. All those 'luxury' flats are driven by foreign investors not locals desiring modest houses.
This was the first of the LibDems seats in his list of predicted results ...... needless to say I didn't get any further.
The density of Islington, which is the highest in the UK, is 13,886 per square kilometer.
Manhattan, even though a huge amount of the space is offices and Central Park takes up the entire centre of the island, is 25,846/km2.
Kwun Tong in Hong King is 57,120/km2.
If the UK had the same density of Kwun Tong the entire population would fit in a square of 20 miles by 20 miles.
http://files.lsecities.net/files/2011/11/2011_chw_2050_01.gif
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/bali-nine-executions-live-updates-as-australia-tries-to-save-two-convicts-from-firing-squad-10206252.html
Jeremy Browne
Maj: 3,993 over the Conservatives
Prediction: POSSIBLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN – 50/50
Boundary changes last time increased Browne’s majority from just over 500. I don’t know how popular he is locally. Seen as a very good minister it was a shock when he was sacked by Clegg. Might he stand down? I’d say this was a 50/50 call.
GORDON
Sir Malcolm Bruce (retiring – Christine Jardine selected
Maj: 6,748 over the SNP
Prediction: 100% LIBDEM HOLD
NORTH EAST FIFE
Sir Menzies Campbell (retiring)
Maj: 9.348
Prediction: LIBDEM HOLD
The Conservatives will be targeting this seat but it’s a remote hope for them. The new LibDem candidate may suffer a dent in their majority but unless Ming Campbell’s personal vote is more than the norm, this seat should stay Liberal Democrat.
EDINBURGH WEST
Michael Crockart
Maj: 3,803
Prediction: PROBABLE LIBDEM HOLD
This seat went LibDem in 1997 and although the LibDem majority plummeted by 10,000 last time it is difficult to see them losing. Prior to 1997 it was a Tory seat but last time Labour beat the Tories into second place. A Labour victory is not impossible to imagine, but still rather unlikely.
BERMONDSEY & OLD SOUTHWARK
Simon Hughes
Maj: 8,530
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD
No comment needed.
ROSS, SKYE AND LOCHABER
Charles Kennedy
Maj: 13,070
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD
Out on his own, and despite an invisible presence in this Parliament, there would need to be a miracle to shift Charles Kennedy.
EASTBOURNE
Stephen Lloyd
Maj: 3.435
Prediction: PROBABLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Won in 2010 from Nigel Wateson, Steohen Lloyd may hang on, but I’d expect the Labour vote to at least double at the expense of the LibDems, so yet again, a lot depends on how many votes the Tories lose to UKIP.
WEST ABERDEENSHIRE & KINCARDINE
Sir Robert Smith
Maj: 3.684
Prediction: PROBABLE LIBDEM HOLD
Although the LibDem majority was halved last time, it’s difficult to see anything other than another victory for Sir Robert Smith.
EAST DUNBARTONSHIRE
Jo Swinson
Maj: 2,184
Prediction: LABOUR GAIN
Jo Swinson is popular but all the political portents are against her. She will be a major loss to the LibDems.
BRADFORD EAST
David Ward
Maj: 365
Prediction: DEAD CERT LABOUR GAIN
One of the nastier LibDem MPs, few will shed tears at his demise.
CEREDIGION
Mark Williams
Maj: 8,324
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD
BRISTOL WEST
Stephen Williams
Maj: 11.336
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD
Unspoofable.
He's even managed to get some Lib Dem possible holds in the loss column.
They should hold Ceridgion, mind, although I'm on PC at 3-1.
CAN YOU GUESS WHO OUR PAGE 3 GIRLS ARE VOTING FOR? TAKE OUR REVEALING QUIZ TO FIND OUT…
http://bit.ly/1z8zf0S
Pretty much gives neither party an easy route to govern.
I think there remains the possibility of a 1% swing either way (more likely to the blues given the momentum and SNP situation)
I also think the tories could still spook another 1% from the blue kipper contingent if they press hard on UKIP votes translating into a LAB gov.
Turnout, voter apathy and the re-registration process are the unknown factors and could still impact massively.
John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul)
27/04/2015 21:32
Rumour that Labour's 7th pledge will be to repeal the law of supply and demand. pic.twitter.com/tNlaZwqXX6
The Labour and Plaid Cymru candidates both emerged damaged from their rather unseemly spat over Tippex and English settlers.
Con 291 (+5 compared with 24 April), Lab 258 (-5), LibDems 25 (-1), SNP 53 (+2), Others 25 (-1)
22 minutes 22 seconds
Betfair has the former as slight favorite but looks like being close thanks to SLP collapse.
I see ARSE has SNP less than 40 seats LAB circa 240 seats I cant see how that would be possible myself but we will see.
Please could you insert a vertical line on the YG polls which shows the date of methodology change as this would be most helpful.
Lab+SNP 311
That would be entertaining.....
http://www.adamsmith.org/blog/planning-transport/only-bombing-would-be-worse-than-rent-control/
Still, we got a nice, shiny Vow out of it, nationalism killed stone dead yet again.
The Lab voters who have switched to the Greens might come back after that endorsement
Like many others before you who fall by the wayside as the tide from my ARSE overwhelms them in a torrent of forecasting brilliance that will not allow even a pale and wretchedly lacklustre imitation to share even a scrap of the limelight and acclaim.
Obviously.
Thank God.
"What happens when the renewable energy runs out?"
I wonder if he will promote little Eddy Weddy and his little Bookie Wookie at the same time. I know I'm not in the target demographic, but the word tosser comes to mind. Apply as you see fit.
Very few posters or stickers here in North Herts, the LibDem and Con ones normally on display are absent. The most obvious (and only one I remember seeing) is a Green Party banner, located in a very desirable mansion tax eligible location.
*Innocent Face*
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2052051/Suburban-slumdogs-Scores-desperate-migrants-crammed-shanty-town-sheds-garages-ruthless-landlords-No-Mumbai--London.html
Girls swoon over him and think he is v clever
Men think he is a total prick
But he prob could help with the female lefty vote a la yesterday's thread
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 25th April Projection) :
Con 305 (+1) .. Lab 246 (-3) .. LibDem 30 (NC) .. SNP 42 (+2) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 21 seats short of a majority
Turnout Projection .. 67.5% (NC)
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - TCTC
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Con Hold
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Con Hold
Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 25 Apr - No Change.
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
On another point. As London becomes less English, I suspect that both European and non EU migrants are less obsessed with houses as opposed to apartments. There may not be the objection to building up that yhere once was, particularly if good quality. Not many keen gardners out there in the next generation either.
But hey, you know best.
Me, I think he's a total prick.
"...a disturbing pattern of foreign contributions and enormous speaking fees for Bill Clinton that appear to be timed to coincide with preferential actions the State Department took while Mrs. Clinton was secretary of state."
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/417519/are-democratic-insiders-starting-panic-about-hillary-john-fund
@Jack
That 7 from Shadsy on Lab under 250 is looking good...
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/residents-anger-after-group-of-immigrants-build-filthy-shanty-town-in-north-london-park-9768850.html
Progress.
I get the impression that some parties were assuming that the debates would be dominant as they were in 2010, and had an election plan based on that. The low key impact of the debates has thrown the plans of some into confusion. The LibDems in particular, I think fall into this category.
I suspect the debates were never going to be as important as in 2010 because they were not 'New', we have had them before so the exciting lustre was already dimmed even if they had followed a similar format to 2010.
Among the ~60 people, there was a wide range of political loyalties and quite a lively discussion. Those in favour of wish-lists collapsed under the avalanche of "how will you do it/pay for it" questions, but the consensus of the vast majority was 'don't rock the boat' and 'steady as she goes'. Even non-supporters and critics thought the coalition had done a reasonable and fair job under the circumstances of a peacetime coalition and unforseen events.
I shall endeavour to pump the source for 100% proof information whilst pumping said source with sauce .... 13.5% proof.
There is no reason or need to look like that, or look like the male version of the poster to go to the beach. You're beach ready when you put your trunks or bikini on, regardless of your shape.
Still, long live the patriarchy and everything.
If you add 7 million to the population in 15 years then something's not fit for purpose, but it might not be your planning system, necessarily.
Don’t think Surrey has either, although is Crystal Palace’s ground in what was once Surrey?