If Labour do go down to a glorious defeat I'm at least glad that the S N P will be what the Lib Dems never were-a beating heart. In my lifetime the country has always been a nicer place to live when we haven't had a Tory Government.
Even Blair for all his right -wing posturing made one of his first acts getting rid of the homeless in Central London by appointing a 'tzar'whose job it was to find accommodation for them. And she did it brilliantly.
I despise Duncan Smith's malevolence and Cameron's ignorance. I just hope Nicola doesn't drop the baton like Clegg did five years ago
Top Tier Football Grounds in traditional Counties: Somerset has had one. (Bristol City were top flight late 70's)
Nottingham Forest is in Nottinghamshire (just), Notts County is in Nottingham City, although the name suggests otherwise.
Named after the "city and county of Nottingham" no doubt.
I know Bristolians who will be mighty cross if you suggest that their city is in Somerset.
I always thought it was in Gloucestershire.
Parts of North Bristol are in 'South Gloucestershire' It's all due to re-carving back the hated 'Avon' county.
Bristol is now officially its own ceremonial county but historically was sometimes seen as its own county and sometimes as part of Gloucestershire. Ashton Gate is in Bedminster, which was traditionally in Somerset (annexed by Bristol in 1831).
So Somerset has had a top flight team, while Gloucestershire has not (Rovers have never been in the top flight)
Don't forget that Eton has won the FA cup 2 or 3 times... Surely that gives Berkshire* a top flight team?
* or Buckinghamshire, depending on who you believe...
Slough and Eton were historically in Buckinghamshire. Just as Staines and Sunbury were historically in Middlesex.
Top Tier Football Grounds in traditional Counties: Somerset has had one. (Bristol City were top flight late 70's)
Nottingham Forest is in Nottinghamshire (just), Notts County is in Nottingham City, although the name suggests otherwise.
Named after the "city and county of Nottingham" no doubt.
I know Bristolians who will be mighty cross if you suggest that their city is in Somerset.
I always thought it was in Gloucestershire.
Parts of North Bristol are in 'South Gloucestershire' It's all due to re-carving back the hated 'Avon' county.
Bristol is now officially its own ceremonial county but historically was sometimes seen as its own county and sometimes as part of Gloucestershire. Ashton Gate is in Bedminster, which was traditionally in Somerset (annexed by Bristol in 1831).
So Somerset has had a top flight team, while Gloucestershire has not (Rovers have never been in the top flight)
Don't forget that Eton has won the FA cup 2 or 3 times... Surely that gives Berkshire* a top flight team?
* or Buckinghamshire, depending on who you believe...
Reading is in Berkshire, so already has a proper one.
I grew up near Reading. I try not to think about it.
Top Tier Football Grounds in traditional Counties: Somerset has had one. (Bristol City were top flight late 70's)
Nottingham Forest is in Nottinghamshire (just), Notts County is in Nottingham City, although the name suggests otherwise.
Named after the "city and county of Nottingham" no doubt.
I know Bristolians who will be mighty cross if you suggest that their city is in Somerset.
I always thought it was in Gloucestershire.
Parts of North Bristol are in 'South Gloucestershire' It's all due to re-carving back the hated 'Avon' county.
Bristol is now officially its own ceremonial county but historically was sometimes seen as its own county and sometimes as part of Gloucestershire. Ashton Gate is in Bedminster, which was traditionally in Somerset (annexed by Bristol in 1831).
So Somerset has had a top flight team, while Gloucestershire has not (Rovers have never been in the top flight)
Don't forget that Eton has won the FA cup 2 or 3 times... Surely that gives Berkshire* a top flight team?
* or Buckinghamshire, depending on who you believe...
Slough and Eton were historically in Buckinghamshire. Just as Staines and Sunbury were historically in Middlesex.
Indeed. But the postal address is Eton, Windsor, Berks (albeit with a Slough postcode) - by Act of Parliament
It seems quite possible that apart from the PVs, when an elector gets in the polling booth, they may well vote for the 'devil you know' than the devil unknown. In politically and globally uncertain times a touch of stability can be very reassuring.
Well theres a clear nudge to tories which seems to have produced a market surge. Labour majority now out to a gobsmackin 90 on bet fair.
Before tories get too excited its only a fortnight since we saw all that pro Labour polling, tho' admittedly around easter.
I'd say from here it's a toss up between Tory largest and Tory majority. That's if this momentum continues.
David Cameron has come alive dishing Ed Miliband's meeting with Russell Brand and saying that Ed Miliband is hiding behind his lectern. The IFS stating that labour's 50p tax will only raise £100 million in revenue is staggering The momentum is all with the conservatives and with a royal baby about to derail Thursdays debates and dominate the news agenda the conservatives most seats must be a done deal and a small majority maybe not out of reach
And breathe......
The polls are still within MOE of a tie.
History may either say 'The Tories executed a blinder with their Scottish play, shepherding stray sheep back into the fold' or 'Despite a late rally, the Tories left it too late to shift opinion against the electoral arithmetic stacked against them'.
Either is plausible. Either could be right.
We don't know - and won't until the votes are counted.....
If Labour do go down to a glorious defeat I'm at least glad that the S N P will be what the Lib Dems never were-a beating heart.
The SNP may be Tartan Socialists today while they're competing against Labour and Labour hold the incumbency. If SLAB dies a death though that's quite possibly going to change.
The SNP is at heart a nationalist movement. While they're competing with Lab incumbents they're fighting on Lab ground, if they no longer need to compete with Lab then they can fight on whatever grounds they please.
Top Tier Football Grounds in traditional Counties: Somerset has had one. (Bristol City were top flight late 70's)
Nottingham Forest is in Nottinghamshire (just), Notts County is in Nottingham City, although the name suggests otherwise.
Named after the "city and county of Nottingham" no doubt.
I know Bristolians who will be mighty cross if you suggest that their city is in Somerset.
I always thought it was in Gloucestershire.
Parts of North Bristol are in 'South Gloucestershire' It's all due to re-carving back the hated 'Avon' county.
Bristol is now officially its own ceremonial county but historically was sometimes seen as its own county and sometimes as part of Gloucestershire. Ashton Gate is in Bedminster, which was traditionally in Somerset (annexed by Bristol in 1831).
So Somerset has had a top flight team, while Gloucestershire has not (Rovers have never been in the top flight)
Don't forget that Eton has won the FA cup 2 or 3 times... Surely that gives Berkshire* a top flight team?
* or Buckinghamshire, depending on who you believe...
Slough and Eton were historically in Buckinghamshire. Just as Staines and Sunbury were historically in Middlesex.
Indeed. But the postal address is Eton, Windsor, Berks (albeit with a Slough postcode) - by Act of Parliament
Postal addresses no longer require a "county"!
So I can say just plain "Ilford" rather than "Ilford, Essex"
Well theres a clear nudge to tories which seems to have produced a market surge. Labour majority now out to a gobsmackin 90 on bet fair.
Before tories get too excited its only a fortnight since we saw all that pro Labour polling, tho' admittedly around easter.
I'd say from here it's a toss up between Tory largest and Tory majority. That's if this momentum continues.
David Cameron has come alive dishing Ed Miliband's meeting with Russell Brand and saying that Ed Miliband is hiding behind his lectern. The IFS stating that labour's 50p tax will only raise £100 million in revenue is staggering The momentum is all with the conservatives and with a royal baby about to derail Thursdays debates and dominate the news agenda the conservatives most seats must be a done deal and a small majority maybe not out of reach
Really don't know what they were thinking there. Obviously Murphy might be far more qualified, competent and even inspirational (within the party) than Findlay but it was so obviously not what they required to counter the threat. I guess they didn't realise how big the threat was.
Yes, it was a silly decision. (The fact that I'd backed Findlay is entirely irrelevant, of course!)
If Labour do go down to a glorious defeat I'm at least glad that the S N P will be what the Lib Dems never were-a beating heart. In my lifetime the country has always been a nicer place to live when we haven't had a Tory Government.
Even Blair for all his right -wing posturing made one of his first acts getting rid of the homeless in Central London by appointing a 'tzar'whose job it was to find accommodation for them. And she did it brilliantly.
I despise Duncan Smith's malevolence and Cameron's ignorance. I just hope Nicola doesn't drop the baton like Clegg did five years ago
Interesting Roger. Ive noticed lots of homeless again in London. Sad state of things.
@Jungleland If you're lurking you might want to have a look at Bradford East. I've sold Respect there for a pound. Others may go in for more though as it is a cert win.
Thanks for the heads up, a colleague had spotted the rick as well. We actually had a buy as well, so have voided bets. Apologies for the inconvenience.
If Labour do go down to a glorious defeat I'm at least glad that the S N P will be what the Lib Dems never were-a beating heart. In my lifetime the country has always been a nicer place to live when we haven't had a Tory Government.
Even Blair for all his right -wing posturing made one of his first acts getting rid of the homeless in Central London by appointing a 'tzar'whose job it was to find accommodation for them. And she did it brilliantly.
I despise Duncan Smith's malevolence and Cameron's ignorance. I just hope Nicola doesn't drop the baton like Clegg did five years ago
Interesting Roger. Ive noticed lots of homeless again in London. Sad state of things.
In the 80's and 90's the homeless were mainly British.
From where do the the 'new' homeless in London originate?
Polls coalescing around a Tory lead, even the ones who always seem less favourable.
Ashcroft: C 36 L 30 (Con +6) Comres: C 36 L 32 (Con +4) ICM: C35 L 32 (Con +3) Survation: C33 L30 (Con+3) Yougov: C35 L 34 (Con+1) Opinium: C34 L 33 (Con+1) TNS: C34 L 33 (Con+1)
I do not think many seats will change hands in England or Wales. Almost the reverse of 2010 in that respect. So the margin that keeps the current coalition in power is narrow, although over the last few days it has seemed closer
Well theres a clear nudge to tories which seems to have produced a market surge. Labour majority now out to a gobsmackin 90 on bet fair.
Before tories get too excited its only a fortnight since we saw all that pro Labour polling, tho' admittedly around easter.
I'd say from here it's a toss up between Tory largest and Tory majority. That's if this momentum continues.
David Cameron has come alive dishing Ed Miliband's meeting with Russell Brand and saying that Ed Miliband is hiding behind his lectern. The IFS stating that labour's 50p tax will only raise £100 million in revenue is staggering The momentum is all with the conservatives and with a royal baby about to derail Thursdays debates and dominate the news agenda the conservatives most seats must be a done deal and a small majority maybe not out of reach
Never has a couple of days polling provided so much premature polling ejaculation in the history of PB. It really is impressive.
Well theres a clear nudge to tories which seems to have produced a market surge. Labour majority now out to a gobsmackin 90 on bet fair.
Before tories get too excited its only a fortnight since we saw all that pro Labour polling, tho' admittedly around easter.
I'd say from here it's a toss up between Tory largest and Tory majority. That's if this momentum continues.
David Cameron has come alive dishing Ed Miliband's meeting with Russell Brand and saying that Ed Miliband is hiding behind his lectern. The IFS stating that labour's 50p tax will only raise £100 million in revenue is staggering The momentum is all with the conservatives and with a royal baby about to derail Thursdays debates and dominate the news agenda the conservatives most seats must be a done deal and a small majority maybe not out of reach
Never has a couple of days polling provided so much premature polling ejaculation in the history of PB. It really is impressive.
Well theres a clear nudge to tories which seems to have produced a market surge. Labour majority now out to a gobsmackin 90 on bet fair.
Before tories get too excited its only a fortnight since we saw all that pro Labour polling, tho' admittedly around easter.
I'd say from here it's a toss up between Tory largest and Tory majority. That's if this momentum continues.
David Cameron has come alive dishing Ed Miliband's meeting with Russell Brand and saying that Ed Miliband is hiding behind his lectern. The IFS stating that labour's 50p tax will only raise £100 million in revenue is staggering The momentum is all with the conservatives and with a royal baby about to derail Thursdays debates and dominate the news agenda the conservatives most seats must be a done deal and a small majority maybe not out of reach
Never has a couple of days polling provided so much premature polling ejaculation in the history of PB. It really is impressive.
You must be worn out, and your trousers sodden. Give your hands a rest.
Preferring to avoid the statistics for a second I've been pondering the zeitgeist on my drive home through a glorious Sussex spring. Both the SNP and Labour posit a "not the Tories" meme; in particular the Greens and the SNP that somehow there is an alternative to austerity. Now it's an attractive thought; that somehow we can stop saving all this money and our debts are not really a problem. But deep down do people really believe it? Likewise, from my ex Brighton home my middle class neighbours would never in a month of sundays profess anything less than a modest dislike of the Blues; the heart ruling the mouth. Yet are things so bad that a change is warranted; and an uncertain one at that? I feel a little like a Manchester United fan in their glory days; that not matter how bad things looked for them they would still win. My Sussex comfort bubble is misleading but I think a Tory majority is on the cards
The last six opinion polls have the SNP vote share at: 53, 49, 55, 49, 48, 51
Could someone explain to me how many seats they think that unprecedented tactical voting is going to keep the SNP from winning if a vote share of anything like that level is reached? Or is the tacit suggestion that we should simply disbelieve these polls?
Roger's vision is quite extraordinarily blinkered. Quite how he manages not to see the homeless in Socialist-run France, or indeed managed to miss them in Labour-run London, is mystifying.
If Labour do go down to a glorious defeat I'm at least glad that the S N P will be what the Lib Dems never were-a beating heart. In my lifetime the country has always been a nicer place to live when we haven't had a Tory Government.
Even Blair for all his right -wing posturing made one of his first acts getting rid of the homeless in Central London by appointing a 'tzar'whose job it was to find accommodation for them. And she did it brilliantly.
I despise Duncan Smith's malevolence and Cameron's ignorance. I just hope Nicola doesn't drop the baton like Clegg did five years ago
When Labour loses, it will be because EdM wasted the last four years not leading, not developing a coherent narrative and not rolling out sensible policies, and because he took Scotland completely for granted. The best Labour can hope for is that a minority Tory government will struggle to enact much of its legislation and will become bogged down in constitutional issues, so giving Labour time to pick a decent leader and develop a credible message for England. I will not hold my breath. My hope now is that FPTP delivers a result so outrageous that the cry for PR will become unanswerable. That way we might see some decent alternatives to Labour develop on the centre left. It's a long shot, I know, but you have to cling to something.
The last six opinion polls have the SNP vote share at: 53, 49, 55, 49, 48, 51
Could someone explain to me how many seats they think that unprecedented tactical voting is going to keep the SNP from winning if a vote share of anything like that level is reached? Or is the tacit suggestion that we should simply disbelieve these polls?
I think that has to be part of the rationale. Though the Lib Dem field reports make Pangloss look like Eeyore.
I'm just reading his 'things I learned about the UK' piece.
"Voters may choose their parties — influenced by personal circumstances, economic conditions and other things — and then adopt their policy positions later."
Roger's vision is quite extraordinarily blinkered. Quite how he manages not to see the homeless in Socialist-run France, or indeed managed to miss them in Labour-run London, is mystifying.
Perhaps a few weeks spent walking the underpasses of Le Havre may shift the myopia
Six polls so far this week, 2 YG, Populus, ICM, Ashcroft and TNS.
Part-ELBOW inc. everybody = 0.1% Lab lead.
Exc. both YG, this converts it to a 0.6% TORY lead
Even a GP like me knows the anatomy of an elbow, Sunil
Conservatives leads x4 (one of 6%), Labour lead x 1 (3%) converts to an overall Labour Lead? Perhaps your elbow bends a different way to mine.
TWO Labour leads - Monday Sun YG and Populus!
A) Well, we always check the data tables to see if the data fits the published %. Looks like today's YG is actually 34 v 34
B ) ELBOW is a weekly aggregator - just to be different! - we tot up the total respondents for each party in each poll, then divide by the total of all the samples (used to calculate the published %) to get the ELBOW values.
C) ELBOW = Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week. It is possible (however unlikely) that it was a reponse to Jack W's ARSE! It is unclear at this time whether Jack W secretly funds the ELBOW project...
D) Since YG has mostly provided 50% or so of each week's polls, we've recently decided to do two more metrics = YG only aggregate, and non-YouGov-only. This is what we get when we look at Labour leads, since ELBOW started in August:
Well theres a clear nudge to tories which seems to have produced a market surge. Labour majority now out to a gobsmackin 90 on bet fair.
Before tories get too excited its only a fortnight since we saw all that pro Labour polling, tho' admittedly around easter.
I'd say from here it's a toss up between Tory largest and Tory majority. That's if this momentum continues.
David Cameron has come alive dishing Ed Miliband's meeting with Russell Brand and saying that Ed Miliband is hiding behind his lectern. The IFS stating that labour's 50p tax will only raise £100 million in revenue is staggering The momentum is all with the conservatives and with a royal baby about to derail Thursdays debates and dominate the news agenda the conservatives most seats must be a done deal and a small majority maybe not out of reach
Never has a couple of days polling provided so much premature polling ejaculation in the history of PB. It really is impressive.
Someone is worried
I remember a few months back there were a few 4% Tory leads, but even they didn't get peolple declaring the most seats were a done deal. Majority maybe in reach also. Fantastic stuff!
Can a nominated candidate change party between now and the GE, also can candidates be added ?
The ballot papers are immutable now - I could join the Tories or die (tough forced choice) and it won't make any difference. Nor can any candidates be added. WYSIWYG.
Technically if you die, then the election is delayed and your party can nominate someone else, but no other parties can change candidates.
Are you sure? I was told the law had changed so that the election would happen anyway (to avoid deceased minor candidates messing things up). If the dead candidate wins, there's a by-election.
The last six opinion polls have the SNP vote share at: 53, 49, 55, 49, 48, 51
Could someone explain to me how many seats they think that unprecedented tactical voting is going to keep the SNP from winning if a vote share of anything like that level is reached? Or is the tacit suggestion that we should simply disbelieve these polls?
Yeah, tactical voting is not going to be a big deal IMO. The only reasons I can see to doubt that the SNP will sweep up nearly the whole lot are:
- Residual Labour loyalty giving a little bit of swingback towards them - Personal vote in at least a few constituencies
Having said that, there's not really any evidence for either that I've seen. SNP over 50 looks very likely now. SNP over 55 wouldn't be a surprise.
If Labour do go down to a glorious defeat I'm at least glad that the S N P will be what the Lib Dems never were-a beating heart. In my lifetime the country has always been a nicer place to live when we haven't had a Tory Government.
Even Blair for all his right -wing posturing made one of his first acts getting rid of the homeless in Central London by appointing a 'tzar'whose job it was to find accommodation for them. And she did it brilliantly.
I despise Duncan Smith's malevolence and Cameron's ignorance. I just hope Nicola doesn't drop the baton like Clegg did five years ago
When Labour loses, it will be because EdM wasted the last four years not leading, not developing a coherent narrative and not rolling out sensible policies, and because he took Scotland completely for granted. The best Labour can hope for is that a minority Tory government will struggle to enact much of its legislation and will become bogged down in constitutional issues, so giving Labour time to pick a decent leader and develop a credible message for England. I will not hold my breath. My hope now is that FPTP delivers a result so outrageous that the cry for PR will become unanswerable. That way we might see some decent alternatives to Labour develop on the centre left. It's a long shot, I know, but you have to cling to something.
I would put the odds of PR being introduced any time soon as incredibly unlikely. The Tories and Lab are both against it. I also cannot imagine an SNP delegation who have won 90%+ of the seats on 45-50% of the vote being keen on electoral reform.
If Labour do go down to a glorious defeat I'm at least glad that the S N P will be what the Lib Dems never were-a beating heart. In my lifetime the country has always been a nicer place to live when we haven't had a Tory Government.
Even Blair for all his right -wing posturing made one of his first acts getting rid of the homeless in Central London by appointing a 'tzar'whose job it was to find accommodation for them. And she did it brilliantly.
I despise Duncan Smith's malevolence and Cameron's ignorance. I just hope Nicola doesn't drop the baton like Clegg did five years ago
Interesting Roger. Ive noticed lots of homeless again in London. Sad state of things.
In the 80's and 90's the homeless were mainly British.
From where do the the 'new' homeless in London originate?
Bloody immigrants, taking our begging spots.
In reality, of course, there are plenty of homeless Brits - especially in London.
The last six opinion polls have the SNP vote share at: 53, 49, 55, 49, 48, 51
Could someone explain to me how many seats they think that unprecedented tactical voting is going to keep the SNP from winning if a vote share of anything like that level is reached? Or is the tacit suggestion that we should simply disbelieve these polls?
The tactical voting is going to be amazing.
I've also seen the line that the SNP underperform their polling: they exactly matched 2011 polling and over performed 2010 eve-of-poll polling.
Can a nominated candidate change party between now and the GE, also can candidates be added ?
The ballot papers are immutable now - I could join the Tories or die (tough forced choice) and it won't make any difference. Nor can any candidates be added. WYSIWYG.
Technically if you die, then the election is delayed and your party can nominate someone else, but no other parties can change candidates.
Are you sure? I was told the law had changed so that the election would happen anyway (to avoid deceased minor candidates messing things up). If the dead candidate wins, there's a by-election.
I believe minor candidates can die if they wish but if a major-party candidate dies it's postponed
Well theres a clear nudge to tories which seems to have produced a market surge. Labour majority now out to a gobsmackin 90 on bet fair.
Before tories get too excited its only a fortnight since we saw all that pro Labour polling, tho' admittedly around easter.
I'd say from here it's a toss up between Tory largest and Tory majority. That's if this momentum continues.
David Cameron has come alive dishing Ed Miliband's meeting with Russell Brand and saying that Ed Miliband is hiding behind his lectern. The IFS stating that labour's 50p tax will only raise £100 million in revenue is staggering The momentum is all with the conservatives and with a royal baby about to derail Thursdays debates and dominate the news agenda the conservatives most seats must be a done deal and a small majority maybe not out of reach
Never has a couple of days polling provided so much premature polling ejaculation in the history of PB. It really is impressive.
Someone is worried
I remember a few months back there were a few 4% Tory leads, but even they didn't get peolple declaring the most seats were a done deal. Majority maybe in reach also. Fantastic stuff!
That was then - this is now and there is evidence of real momentum - we will see but as each day passes it seems more likely that Ed Miliband will not be PM
Roger's vision is quite extraordinarily blinkered. Quite how he manages not to see the homeless in Socialist-run France, or indeed managed to miss them in Labour-run London, is mystifying.
Perhaps a few weeks spent walking the underpasses of Le Havre may shift the myopia
Half an hour strolling around the streets near the Promenade des Anglais in Nice should suffice.
If Labour do go down to a glorious defeat I'm at least glad that the S N P will be what the Lib Dems never were-a beating heart. In my lifetime the country has always been a nicer place to live when we haven't had a Tory Government.
Even Blair for all his right -wing posturing made one of his first acts getting rid of the homeless in Central London by appointing a 'tzar'whose job it was to find accommodation for them. And she did it brilliantly.
I despise Duncan Smith's malevolence and Cameron's ignorance. I just hope Nicola doesn't drop the baton like Clegg did five years ago
When Labour loses, it will be because EdM wasted the last four years not leading, not developing a coherent narrative and not rolling out sensible policies, and because he took Scotland completely for granted. The best Labour can hope for is that a minority Tory government will struggle to enact much of its legislation and will become bogged down in constitutional issues, so giving Labour time to pick a decent leader and develop a credible message for England. I will not hold my breath. My hope now is that FPTP delivers a result so outrageous that the cry for PR will become unanswerable. That way we might see some decent alternatives to Labour develop on the centre left. It's a long shot, I know, but you have to cling to something.
I would put the odds of PR being introduced any time soon as incredibly unlikely. The Tories and Lab are both against it. I also cannot imagine an SNP delegation who have won 90%+ of the seats on 45-50% of the vote being keen on electoral reform.
Yep, I know that. But you have to cling to something. Labour seems incapable of understanding that we do not live in the 20th century anymore. It clings to comfort blankets and does not challenge itself. That is no way to run a political party. I want a centre left option that is serious and credible. And the only way I can see that happening is through PR.
Nigel Farage has characterised the UK Labour vote as a 'rotten window frame'
All you have to do is push it and it caves in.
Hmmn.
I've consistently argued here that labour's actual vote tends to under perform its poll score. It can;'t be that soft though, surely.
We've just seen a complete collapse in Scotland. In England and Wales Labour drove away a lot of their traditional supporters during the New Labour years.
The Conservatives were unable to attract those voters, the test of election day is to see if UKIP has been able to attract them. Will turnout return to pre-1997 levels?
The last six opinion polls have the SNP vote share at: 53, 49, 55, 49, 48, 51
Could someone explain to me how many seats they think that unprecedented tactical voting is going to keep the SNP from winning if a vote share of anything like that level is reached? Or is the tacit suggestion that we should simply disbelieve these polls?
Selected possible TV seats, by SNP share 2010. I've knocked out the 2-way SNP-Lab seats (mostly Glasgow) as TV is probably baked into those seats already.
Edinburgh South 7.7% Renfrewshire East 8.9% B, Rox, and Selkirk 9.2% Edinburgh N & Leith 9.6% Dunbartonshire East 10.5% Orkney and Shetland 10.6% D, Cly and Tweed 10.8% Aberdeen South 11.9% Edinburgh SW 12.2% Dumfries & Galloway 12.3% Edinburgh West 13.2% Fife North East 14.2% Ross, Skye & L'ber 15.1% Ab W & Kincardine 15.7% East Lothian 16.0%
I don't think he's fiddling it, it's just that YG and Populus have big samples and poll more frequently. (Even when he takes YG out, Populus are doing 3 polls of 2000 sample per week -- I'm not totally sure of his methodology but that may well mean that they count for 6 ICMs or Ashcrofts.
Can a nominated candidate change party between now and the GE, also can candidates be added ?
The ballot papers are immutable now - I could join the Tories or die (tough forced choice) and it won't make any difference. Nor can any candidates be added. WYSIWYG.
Technically if you die, then the election is delayed and your party can nominate someone else, but no other parties can change candidates.
Are you sure? I was told the law had changed so that the election would happen anyway (to avoid deceased minor candidates messing things up). If the dead candidate wins, there's a by-election.
Independents can die but party candidates can't. The law needs changing to what you suggest, I think.
Pulpstar: my candidates spreadsheet is what you're looking for. I think it's the only resource available which has all the candidates on one page rather having to click each time.
Can a nominated candidate change party between now and the GE, also can candidates be added ?
The ballot papers are immutable now - I could join the Tories or die (tough forced choice) and it won't make any difference. Nor can any candidates be added. WYSIWYG.
Technically if you die, then the election is delayed and your party can nominate someone else, but no other parties can change candidates.
Are you sure? I was told the law had changed so that the election would happen anyway (to avoid deceased minor candidates messing things up). If the dead candidate wins, there's a by-election.
Think that's still the case (unless you are(were) standing as an Independent, in which case the vote still goes ahead)
Could someone explain to me how many seats they think that unprecedented tactical voting is going to keep the SNP from winning if a vote share of anything like that level is reached?
I would guess somewhere between zero and none.
After decades of demonisation by SLAB, the Tories will be drying kindling for the funeral pyre.
There might be a few, and only a few, tempted to offer encouragement for their noble and doomed Westminster coalition partners - but nowhere near enough.
I wonder what Johann Lamont is thinking. I think her comment has turned a defeat into a rout.
Even without Lamont's outburst electing Murphy was always going to be fatal to SLab.
Murphy being elected kind of confirmed Lamont's view. I haven't seen many indications of greatness from Findlay & Boyack but I can't believe they'd be doing any worse, and they'd have some appeal to the Yes voting Labour supporters that up until recently Murphy, McTernan & McDougall considered vital to SLab recovery.
Surely the real failure was Ed Miliband failing to ensure that SLAB was re-built into a strong party after the 2011 scottish election debacle? EdM had four years to fix it yet sat back, meddled a little from Lab HQ and watched.... The SNP went from 31% to 45% in 2011. Hello EdM, did ye not notice hun?
I don't think he's fiddling it, it's just that YG and Populus have big samples and poll more frequently. (Even when he takes YG out, Populus are doing 3 polls of 2000 sample per week -- I'm not totally sure of his methodology but that may well mean that they count for 6 ICMs or Ashcrofts.
Bizarre. That's one of the rare occasions when using a scantily clad woman in an advert is entirely justifiable. Have we really reached the point when encouraging people to buy a product to be fitter is offensive?
Disagree with you here. It's got nothing to do with encouraging fitness and everything to do with objectification and figure fascism. The company know this and are using the image specifically to provoke, and thereby garner publicity and sales. There is no reason or need to look like that, or look like the male version of the poster to go to the beach. You're beach ready when you put your trunks or bikini on, regardless of your shape. Still, long live the patriarchy and everything.
+1. The advert is advertising diet pills (of unknown ingredients) instead of exercise. It's a solve make believe problem quick advert of the worst kind...
They're not of unknown ingredients, and they're not instead of exercise. They aren't a substitute for a nourishing diet, but what's in them isn't terrible by modern standards.
And it's not a make-believe problem - we are not meant to be fat.
If Labour do go down to a glorious defeat I'm at least glad that the S N P will be what the Lib Dems never were-a beating heart. In my lifetime the country has always been a nicer place to live when we haven't had a Tory Government.
Even Blair for all his right -wing posturing made one of his first acts getting rid of the homeless in Central London by appointing a 'tzar'whose job it was to find accommodation for them. And she did it brilliantly.
I despise Duncan Smith's malevolence and Cameron's ignorance. I just hope Nicola doesn't drop the baton like Clegg did five years ago
Interesting Roger. Ive noticed lots of homeless again in London. Sad state of things.
In the 80's and 90's the homeless were mainly British.
From where do the the 'new' homeless in London originate?
Bloody immigrants, taking our begging spots.
In reality, of course, there are plenty of homeless Brits - especially in London.
It's not really "homelessness" that is the problem which needs fixing, though.
A huge proportion are ex-service personnel, who have had difficult adjusting back into mainstream life. Another big chunk have pre-existing mental health issues that result in them ending up on the streets.
Solve those two problems and you will go a long way towards solving the "homelessness" issue.
Just in case the discussion down-thread (up-thread?) left anyone in any doubt:
Middlesbrough was, is and always will be A Small Town in Yorkshire.
Oh, and Sunlun is County Durham and Newcastle is Northumberland. As Carlisle is Cumberland, I think it is fair to say that Westmoreland has never had a top-flight footy team (or even a team in the League).
I don't think he's fiddling it, it's just that YG and Populus have big samples and poll more frequently. (Even when he takes YG out, Populus are doing 3 polls of 2000 sample per week -- I'm not totally sure of his methodology but that may well mean that they count for 6 ICMs or Ashcrofts.
If Labour do go down to a glorious defeat I'm at least glad that the S N P will be what the Lib Dems never were-a beating heart. In my lifetime the country has always been a nicer place to live when we haven't had a Tory Government.
Even Blair for all his right -wing posturing made one of his first acts getting rid of the homeless in Central London by appointing a 'tzar'whose job it was to find accommodation for them. And she did it brilliantly.
I despise Duncan Smith's malevolence and Cameron's ignorance. I just hope Nicola doesn't drop the baton like Clegg did five years ago
The amount New Labour spent on TV advertising it must have been a land of milk and honey for you.
Could someone explain to me how many seats they think that unprecedented tactical voting is going to keep the SNP from winning if a vote share of anything like that level is reached?
I would guess somewhere between zero and none.
After decades of demonisation by SLAB, the Tories will be drying kindling for the funeral pyre.
There might be a few, and only a few, tempted to offer encouragement for their noble and doomed Westminster coalition partners - but nowhere near enough.
Absolutely no incentive for Scotch Cons to vote for Labour to keep out he SNP - none , zero, nada zilch.
If a candidate from a party dies the election is postponed. If an independent candidate dies the election goes ahead, as it is in Hampstead. If they win, another election has to take place. Therefore voting for a deceased indepenent candidate is akin to voting for nominations to be reopened.
I don't think he's fiddling it, it's just that YG and Populus have big samples and poll more frequently. (Even when he takes YG out, Populus are doing 3 polls of 2000 sample per week -- I'm not totally sure of his methodology but that may well mean that they count for 6 ICMs or Ashcrofts.
Bizarre. That's one of the rare occasions when using a scantily clad woman in an advert is entirely justifiable. Have we really reached the point when encouraging people to buy a product to be fitter is offensive?
Disagree with you here. It's got nothing to do with encouraging fitness and everything to do with objectification and figure fascism. The company know this and are using the image specifically to provoke, and thereby garner publicity and sales. There is no reason or need to look like that, or look like the male version of the poster to go to the beach. You're beach ready when you put your trunks or bikini on, regardless of your shape. Still, long live the patriarchy and everything.
+1. The advert is advertising diet pills (of unknown ingredients) instead of exercise. It's a solve make believe problem quick advert of the worst kind...
They're not of unknown ingredients, and they're not instead of exercise. They aren't a substitute for a nourishing diet, but what's in them isn't terrible by modern standards.
And it's not a make-believe problem - we are not meant to be fat.
I am not sure what the protein whatsname in question is, but I have two of the Holland and Barrett muscle gain shakes a day and a couple of small meals (no meat) and have lost 9lb in about three months
7a side football 40 mins a week, 2 or 3 5k runs, 1 15k bike ride, 50 squats a day and a few free weights there you go, my health plan for free!
No excuse for being fat or eating bad, and jealousy of people that put thought and purpose into keeping healthy is a telling trend in modern society
Could someone explain to me how many seats they think that unprecedented tactical voting is going to keep the SNP from winning if a vote share of anything like that level is reached?
I would guess somewhere between zero and none.
After decades of demonisation by SLAB, the Tories will be drying kindling for the funeral pyre.
There might be a few, and only a few, tempted to offer encouragement for their noble and doomed Westminster coalition partners - but nowhere near enough.
I placed a bet last week at 8/1 with William Hill that the Conservatives and Labour will get the same number of seats in Scotland. It's still available. As well as 2-2 and 1-1, it covers 0-0 draws.
Could someone explain to me how many seats they think that unprecedented tactical voting is going to keep the SNP from winning if a vote share of anything like that level is reached?
I would guess somewhere between zero and none.
After decades of demonisation by SLAB, the Tories will be drying kindling for the funeral pyre.
There might be a few, and only a few, tempted to offer encouragement for their noble and doomed Westminster coalition partners - but nowhere near enough.
Absolutely no incentive for Scotch Cons to vote for Labour to keep out he SNP - none , zero, nada zilch.
Indeed. "Keeping SNP out" would be the same as helping Labour beat the Tories in the GE - why would any Conservative be motivated to do that?
Can a nominated candidate change party between now and the GE, also can candidates be added ?
The ballot papers are immutable now - I could join the Tories or die (tough forced choice) and it won't make any difference. Nor can any candidates be added. WYSIWYG.
Technically if you die, then the election is delayed and your party can nominate someone else, but no other parties can change candidates.
Are you sure? I was told the law had changed so that the election would happen anyway (to avoid deceased minor candidates messing things up). If the dead candidate wins, there's a by-election.
I believe minor candidates can die if they wish but if a major-party candidate dies it's postponed
@Sunil_Prasannan the world is still crying out for a phone-poll only Elbow complete with graph for the last couple of months...!
The reason why I I've now split ELBOW into YG and non-YG is simply because YG have "traditionally" provided 50% of each week's polls. So the number of polls (very roughly) is the same in each segment of my ELBOW.
Bizarre. That's one of the rare occasions when using a scantily clad woman in an advert is entirely justifiable. Have we really reached the point when encouraging people to buy a product to be fitter is offensive?
Disagree with you here. It's got nothing to do with encouraging fitness and everything to do with objectification and figure fascism. The company know this and are using the image specifically to provoke, and thereby garner publicity and sales. There is no reason or need to look like that, or look like the male version of the poster to go to the beach. You're beach ready when you put your trunks or bikini on, regardless of your shape. Still, long live the patriarchy and everything.
+1. The advert is advertising diet pills (of unknown ingredients) instead of exercise. It's a solve make believe problem quick advert of the worst kind...
They're not of unknown ingredients, and they're not instead of exercise. They aren't a substitute for a nourishing diet, but what's in them isn't terrible by modern standards.
And it's not a make-believe problem - we are not meant to be fat.
I am not sure what the protein whatsname in question is, but I have two of the Holland and Barrett muscle gain shakes a day and a couple of small meals (no meat) and have lost 9lb in about three months
7a side football 40 mins a week, 2 or 3 5k runs, 1 15k bike ride, 50 squats a day and a few free weights there you go, my health plan for free!
No excuse for being fat or eating bad, and jealousy of people that put thought and purpose into keeping healthy is a telling trend in modern society
There are plenty of excuses for being fat. Mine is that I eat and drink too much.
So in the immortal words of Mr Major, put up or shut up
And what's the result if you don't use rounded numbers for the DK/WA adjustment?
Exactly. Sunil really is extraordinarily arrogant about this.
NB the 602 & 608 are also rounded inputs
Especially in this case, it really wouldn't take much to change 34.4% Con into 34.5% ---> 35% reported. Not a meaningful distinction, but certainly a mistake to claim the pollsters are wrong
I would be surprised if the Conservatives won a majority - marginal polling doesn't seem to favour them on that score, although looking to the polling movement towards them (mainly from YG and TNS-BRMB particularly) it's looking like they'll be the largest party in a hung parliament. One thing I don't get is the assumption on PB, that the Lib Dems will automatically form a coalition with the LDs because of noises Clegg's been making recently.
Clegg has to keep his seat - and even if he does in order for any arrangement to happen the LDs need to go through their 'Triple Lock' system, getting the approval of the parliamentary party and and federal executive committee for a deal to occur. Given that it looks like the LDs will be decimated, the mood among them could be vastly different to what it was in 2010.
I think there's a high chance of a second election - I think a Lab-SNP-Green-Plaid block could well end up preventing the Queen's Speech, from either a Con-LD coalition, or a Con minority government from going through. What result a second election could bring, who knows?!
I don't think he's fiddling it, it's just that YG and Populus have big samples and poll more frequently. (Even when he takes YG out, Populus are doing 3 polls of 2000 sample per week -- I'm not totally sure of his methodology but that may well mean that they count for 6 ICMs or Ashcrofts.
Am losing faith in Sunil's elbow - if he is fiddling Con leads into ties.
Populus 6x better than ICM ? Interesting theory..
Populus are propping up Ed's hopes. A labour majority is now a very very long shot.
No-one seriously believes there will be a Labour majority, do they? The only sensible discussion point since the start of the campaign is how close the Tories will get to a majority. I can't see it myself, but it is not beyond the bounds of possibility.
Bizarre. That's one of the rare occasions when using a scantily clad woman in an advert is entirely justifiable. Have we really reached the point when encouraging people to buy a product to be fitter is offensive?
Disagree with you here. It's got nothing to do with encouraging fitness and everything to do with objectification and figure fascism. The company know this and are using the image specifically to provoke, and thereby garner publicity and sales. There is no reason or need to look like that, or look like the male version of the poster to go to the beach. You're beach ready when you put your trunks or bikini on, regardless of your shape. Still, long live the patriarchy and everything.
+1. The advert is advertising diet pills (of unknown ingredients) instead of exercise. It's a solve make believe problem quick advert of the worst kind...
They're not of unknown ingredients, and they're not instead of exercise. They aren't a substitute for a nourishing diet, but what's in them isn't terrible by modern standards.
And it's not a make-believe problem - we are not meant to be fat.
I am not sure what the protein whatsname in question is, but I have two of the Holland and Barrett muscle gain shakes a day and a couple of small meals (no meat) and have lost 9lb in about three months
7a side football 40 mins a week, 2 or 3 5k runs, 1 15k bike ride, 50 squats a day and a few free weights there you go, my health plan for free!
No excuse for being fat or eating bad, and jealousy of people that put thought and purpose into keeping healthy is a telling trend in modern society
There are plenty of excuses for being fat. Mine is that I eat and drink too much.
So in the immortal words of Mr Major, put up or shut up
And what's the result if you don't use rounded numbers for the DK/WA adjustment?
Exactly. Sunil really is extraordinarily arrogant about this.
NB the 602 & 608 are also rounded inputs
Especially in this case, it really wouldn't take much to change 34.4% Con into 34.5% ---> 35% reported. Not a meaningful distinction, but certainly a mistake to claim the pollsters are wrong
I'm only going by what I can glean from the tables - sorry if this appears arrogant! (wasn't my intention)
I really do wish YouGov would give me an official figure for the final weighted sample - all the other pollsters do so. Even ICM and Ashcroft give you enough info to calculate a final weighted sample.
Bizarre. That's one of the rare occasions when using a scantily clad woman in an advert is entirely justifiable. Have we really reached the point when encouraging people to buy a product to be fitter is offensive?
Disagree with you here. It's got nothing to do with encouraging fitness and everything to do with objectification and figure fascism. The company know this and are using the image specifically to provoke, and thereby garner publicity and sales. There is no reason or need to look like that, or look like the male version of the poster to go to the beach. You're beach ready when you put your trunks or bikini on, regardless of your shape. Still, long live the patriarchy and everything.
+1. The advert is advertising diet pills (of unknown ingredients) instead of exercise. It's a solve make believe problem quick advert of the worst kind...
They're not of unknown ingredients, and they're not instead of exercise. They aren't a substitute for a nourishing diet, but what's in them isn't terrible by modern standards.
And it's not a make-believe problem - we are not meant to be fat.
I am not sure what the protein whatsname in question is, but I have two of the Holland and Barrett muscle gain shakes a day and a couple of small meals (no meat) and have lost 9lb in about three months
7a side football 40 mins a week, 2 or 3 5k runs, 1 15k bike ride, 50 squats a day and a few free weights there you go, my health plan for free!
No excuse for being fat or eating bad, and jealousy of people that put thought and purpose into keeping healthy is a telling trend in modern society
There are plenty of excuses for being fat. Mine is that I eat and drink too much.
I think the few Scottish polls show that the relentless Tory/MSM SNP attackathon has started to awaken a new tide of support for the SNP, my sense is that this new SNP surge could well push the SNP above 55% on 7th May. I think David Cameron may well have just broken the Union in pursuit of power. Should his power grab fail it will be a classic Greek tragedy, perhaps Boris could publish it in Greek.
The Survation trust ratings make interesting reading and will result in most of the don't knows who do vote, breaking for the SNP. It's very telling that the Tory BT supporters who flooded social media with relentless project fear drivel have now fallen completely silent, I think many of them are now waking up to the fact that they were conned by BT/MSM into joining in on Scottish bashing and trashing of iScotland's future prospects.
I don't think so. The tidal wave was already in full effect. If anything, I think Cameron's intervention will give cause to reflect. Most Scottish voters don't want to be dealing with him, and they can see that their vote may be wasted if Labour don't get in and a few may switch back.
The SNP surge has spent the last few months suck in the 45-50% range. In the last week or so the surge appears to have broken through 50% and is heading towards 55% in my view. I think things are about to get worse for SLAB and they'll be lucky to hold onto the 20%. There may still be some value in the Scottish markets !!
Bizarre. That's one of the rare occasions when using a scantily clad woman in an advert is entirely justifiable. Have we really reached the point when encouraging people to buy a product to be fitter is offensive?
Disagree with you here. It's got nothing to do with encouraging fitness and everything to do with objectification and figure fascism. The company know this and are using the image specifically to provoke, and thereby garner publicity and sales. There is no reason or need to look like that, or look like the male version of the poster to go to the beach. You're beach ready when you put your trunks or bikini on, regardless of your shape. Still, long live the patriarchy and everything.
+1. The advert is advertising diet pills (of unknown ingredients) instead of exercise. It's a solve make believe problem quick advert of the worst kind...
They're not of unknown ingredients, and they're not instead of exercise. They aren't a substitute for a nourishing diet, but what's in them isn't terrible by modern standards.
And it's not a make-believe problem - we are not meant to be fat.
I am not sure what the protein whatsname in question is, but I have two of the Holland and Barrett muscle gain shakes a day and a couple of small meals (no meat) and have lost 9lb in about three months
7a side football 40 mins a week, 2 or 3 5k runs, 1 15k bike ride, 50 squats a day and a few free weights there you go, my health plan for free!
No excuse for being fat or eating bad, and jealousy of people that put thought and purpose into keeping healthy is a telling trend in modern society
There are plenty of excuses for being fat. Mine is that I eat and drink too much.
Ain't that the truth.
Mine is that I eat too much and move too little.
I move a fair bit, but nowhere near enough. My blood pressure is OK though and I am hopeful my wife will stick with me, so it's not all bad.
So in the immortal words of Mr Major, put up or shut up
And what's the result if you don't use rounded numbers for the DK/WA adjustment?
Exactly. Sunil really is extraordinarily arrogant about this.
NB the 602 & 608 are also rounded inputs
Especially in this case, it really wouldn't take much to change 34.4% Con into 34.5% ---> 35% reported. Not a meaningful distinction, but certainly a mistake to claim the pollsters are wrong
I'm only going by what I can glean from the tables - sorry if this appears arrogant! (wasn't my intention)
I really do wish YouGov would give me an official figure for the final weighted sample - all the other pollsters do so. Even ICM and Ashcroft give you enough info to calculate a final weighted sample.
You continually insinuate that the pollsters' headline figures are wrong, with no justification. It amounts to a slur on their integrity. More transparency would be great but a lack of it doesn't warrant you changing their numbers.
YouGov also don't tell you exactly how they are handling likelihood to vote as far as I can see. They may see that as proprietary; I don't know.
Comments
+£242 if Boris is next PM now... ho hum.
The polls are still within MOE of a tie.
History may either say 'The Tories executed a blinder with their Scottish play, shepherding stray sheep back into the fold' or 'Despite a late rally, the Tories left it too late to shift opinion against the electoral arithmetic stacked against them'.
Either is plausible. Either could be right.
We don't know - and won't until the votes are counted.....
The SNP is at heart a nationalist movement. While they're competing with Lab incumbents they're fighting on Lab ground, if they no longer need to compete with Lab then they can fight on whatever grounds they please.
So I can say just plain "Ilford" rather than "Ilford, Essex"
76% probability of Tories most seats; 58% chance of Ed PM
That's a 35% gap. There simply aren't enough seats in Scotland for this to be the case.
I don't care if you're in the Owls camp or the JackW camp that gap is too big by around 10% I reckon.
Six polls so far this week, 2 YG, Populus, ICM, Ashcroft and TNS.
Part-ELBOW inc. everybody = 0.1% Lab lead.
Exc. both YG, this converts it to a 0.6% TORY lead
(Forgot about the royal baby)
Cheers
From where do the the 'new' homeless in London originate?
Then Popinium, Opulus, TCM and INS.
Finally: Ipsos BASE and Panelmori.
Conservatives leads x4 (one of 6%), Labour lead x 1 (3%) converts to an overall Labour Lead? Perhaps your elbow bends a different way to mine.
Your bet should be voided, I think.
The last six opinion polls have the SNP vote share at: 53, 49, 55, 49, 48, 51
Could someone explain to me how many seats they think that unprecedented tactical voting is going to keep the SNP from winning if a vote share of anything like that level is reached? Or is the tacit suggestion that we should simply disbelieve these polls?
"Voters may choose their parties — influenced by personal circumstances, economic conditions and other things — and then adopt their policy positions later."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/six-lessons-nate-silver-uk-election/
The suggestion there being that the high vote to break up the UK followed SNP electoral success, rather than caused SNP electoral success.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament_general_election,_2011
A) Well, we always check the data tables to see if the data fits the published %. Looks like today's YG is actually 34 v 34
B ) ELBOW is a weekly aggregator - just to be different! - we tot up the total respondents for each party in each poll, then divide by the total of all the samples (used to calculate the published %) to get the ELBOW values.
C) ELBOW = Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week. It is possible (however unlikely) that it was a reponse to Jack W's ARSE! It is unclear at this time whether Jack W secretly funds the ELBOW project...
D) Since YG has mostly provided 50% or so of each week's polls, we've recently decided to do two more metrics = YG only aggregate, and non-YouGov-only. This is what we get when we look at Labour leads, since ELBOW started in August:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/592419947663491072
- Residual Labour loyalty giving a little bit of swingback towards them
- Personal vote in at least a few constituencies
Having said that, there's not really any evidence for either that I've seen. SNP over 50 looks very likely now. SNP over 55 wouldn't be a surprise.
In reality, of course, there are plenty of homeless Brits - especially in London.
I've also seen the line that the SNP underperform their polling: they exactly matched 2011 polling and over performed 2010 eve-of-poll polling.
http://www.nickpalmer.org.uk/mediterranean-crisis-a-proposal-vote-swapping-update-hustings-video-economic-debate/
After decades of demonisation by SLAB, the Tories will be drying kindling for the funeral pyre.
There might be a few, and only a few, tempted to offer encouragement for their noble and doomed Westminster coalition partners - but nowhere near enough.
This week 4 polls from 4 separate organisations (total since the SPUDs were planted, 22 polls from 11)
CON +8 (NC)
LAB NC (-13)
UKIP -3 (+5)
LD -1 (NC)
GREEN +3 (+4)
And it's not a make-believe problem - we are not meant to be fat.
A huge proportion are ex-service personnel, who have had difficult adjusting back into mainstream life. Another big chunk have pre-existing mental health issues that result in them ending up on the streets.
Solve those two problems and you will go a long way towards solving the "homelessness" issue.
Middlesbrough was, is and always will be A Small Town in Yorkshire.
Oh, and Sunlun is County Durham and Newcastle is Northumberland. As Carlisle is Cumberland, I think it is fair to say that Westmoreland has never had a top-flight footy team (or even a team in the League).
Table says 602 Lab, 608 Con.
Sample = 2127
DK and won't answer = 17%
2127*0.83 = 1765
602/1765 = 34.1% Lab
608/1765 = 34.4% Con
So in the immortal words of Mr Major, put up or shut up
7a side football 40 mins a week, 2 or 3 5k runs, 1 15k bike ride, 50 squats a day and a few free weights there you go, my health plan for free!
No excuse for being fat or eating bad, and jealousy of people that put thought and purpose into keeping healthy is a telling trend in modern society
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/141787/Part-2b-standing-as-a-party-candidate-LGEW.pdf
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/141785/Part-2a-Standing-as-an-independent-candidate-LGEW.pdf
NB the 602 & 608 are also rounded inputs
Non-YouGov weekly TORY lead 26th April = 0.5%
YouGov weekly Labour lead 19th April = 1.5%
Non-YouGov weekly TORY lead 19th April = 0.8%
Clegg has to keep his seat - and even if he does in order for any arrangement to happen the LDs need to go through their 'Triple Lock' system, getting the approval of the parliamentary party and and federal executive committee for a deal to occur. Given that it looks like the LDs will be decimated, the mood among them could be vastly different to what it was in 2010.
I think there's a high chance of a second election - I think a Lab-SNP-Green-Plaid block could well end up preventing the Queen's Speech, from either a Con-LD coalition, or a Con minority government from going through. What result a second election could bring, who knows?!
Mine is that I eat too much and move too little.
There have been 5 polls this week from 5 pollsters and the UKIP and LD scores are incorrect
CON +8 (NC)
LAB NC (-13)
UKIP -2 (+6)
LD -2 (-1)
GREEN +3 (+4)
I really do wish YouGov would give me an official figure for the final weighted sample - all the other pollsters do so. Even ICM and Ashcroft give you enough info to calculate a final weighted sample.
No time for a novice.
ELBOW uses data to two decimals!
Therefore Tories ARE still in the lead:
Con 34.44
Lab 34.10
Still a lead. And 6 more Tory respondents (608) than Labour (602) in the final ELBOW aggregate.
YouGov also don't tell you exactly how they are handling likelihood to vote as far as I can see. They may see that as proprietary; I don't know.