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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What we need is for individual pollsters to produce results that are completely out of character
This is one of the basic rules of polling analysis – you shouldn’t compare one firm’s poll with another and then deduce that there has been a trend.
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If you exclude the YouGovs and Ashcrofts, it's dead even.
I think it tells us things are still very close, if Labour is anywhere near to even despite perhaps losing 41 MPs in Scotland then they can be happy.
What strikes me as most important in Scotland is the potential loss of 10 Lib Dems from the coalition total, the SNP will back Ed, that is clear so their impact can be largely discounted.
Effectively the coalition are starting from 10 seats down before we consider England. I think Ed is Pm on 260 seats, if we can add 65 SNP+PC+SDLP seats.
Eh? Is this Mike's little sarcastic joke in this morning's thread?
Just watch the OUTRAGE!!! bus swerve from its normal habitat of the left lane to the right.......
"It's ALIVE,,,,"
That'll be YouGov.
Fitting. Labour doesn't have a Scoobie...
I also expect some convergence before polling day, especially between internet pollsters and telephone pollsters. Neither can afford to see their business model fundamentally discredited by calling the election wrong and although there is the odd exception (like Ipsos Mori) the division between them is too sharp for either of their comfort to date.
Where will this convergence be? I am not sure but the best bet looks like a modest Tory lead. What will be significant for the narrative is if those pollsters who have consistently backed Labour head in that direction. Yougov has been more variable than most and last night may be a one off or it may be a part of a trend.
I should also add that any pollster that gets this election close to right will have done an exceptional job. The rise of UKIP bringing in previous non voters, the collapse of the Lib Dems with notable exceptions of incumbency and all the excitement of Scotland make this a very, very difficult election to get right.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/27/lib-dems-ramp-up-scottish-campaign-after-polling-data-boost
"The private polling data and canvassing returns suggest the party is in the lead in several constituencies including East Dunbartonshire, being defended by Jo Swinson, and West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, which is held by Sir Robert Smith.
At least five more seats where the Lib Dems are fighting to overturn an SNP lead, including Edinburgh West, Argyll & Bute and Inverness, could be held because of an upsurge in tactical voting by pro-UK party supporters, the party believes.
The Lib Dems also expect to hold Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, which is the most northerly seat on the UK mainland and being defended by John Thurso, as well as Orkney and Shetland just to the north, one of the party’s safest, held by Alistair Carmichael, the Scotland secretary."
You believe that Ed, having gained 2 seats from what was a bad loss in 2010, will become PM.
I don’t doubt the arithmetic.
I doubt whether the Labour party will be so forgiving to Ed as you are.
I doubt they will reward a record of failure by signing up to a coalition that has no long-term advantages for them.
Ed’s interests, and the Labour Party’s interests, will diverge strongly if Ed has made just +2 gains. (That is almost comparable to William Hague in 2001).
2 hours
A volatile Tory-led administration mired in self-inflicted constitutional muck - in both Scotland and Europe - is not a bad backdrop against which to find a better leader.
Discerning trends in any pollsters polls is disrupted when they make big changes in their methodology, like when Yougov did a couple of weeks ago.
Still we have Jacks ARSE to look forward to shortly. Sub 250 Lab seats still 7 at Ladbrokes...
Curious that Moore's seat does not seem to be one of those getting the additional resources. Maybe just didn't fit with the narrative to announce it.
Lab Hold on low turnout.
Moore's seat hasn't received extra resources because it was already in the top tier.
SNP+Plaid+SDLP won't hit 65 seats but may have 60 (and you can add the Greens to that total for Labour allies). That said, I agree that 260 seats should be sufficient for them. I can't see why the Lib Dems would back the Tories to stay in No 10 if the two parties couldn't muster a majority between them. There will be a good deal of scepticism in that party about doing a second deal even if there was a coalition majority. You're right about the Scottish LD seats being important in the big picture.
I saw literally more posters for the Conserrvatives and UKIP on a 50 mile drive round County Down last Friday than I have in the whole three weeks of campaigning on mainland Britain. Bizarre election.
But you're right. Despite this election being one of the most exciting ever for the anoraks there is remarkably little evidence that it has caught the attention of the public. And if the Royal baby arrives this week....
This was perhaps the election for SCUP and SLD to run a common ticket in a coupon election, like in the good old days with the National Liberals. It would have been a distinguishing feature for both from E and W.
Labour to hold both (And Morley and Outwood of Morris' parish) but turnout to be low.
Remove Yougov and and you get a almost dead heat, with 43,654 voters questioned, Cons 14483 and Labour on 14848. 1 Voter ahead.
I'd suggest a better approach would be to discount 75% of the yougovs, suggesting a labour lead of around 02.% Can you point me towards an occasion when a party has refused power when the arithmetic stacked up. It didn't stack up in 2010
Labour will forgive him if he becomes PM. For that matter, they'll forgive him if he loses. Labour forgives all their failures. They regard losing far less seriously than betrayal.
However, you're right that a Labour- or Labour-led government based on 265 (I don't think 260 would be viable) Labour MPs would be very unstable. However, it might also be the only option.
twitter.com/ElisaMisu/status/592795306225459203
Oh. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11565524/Housebuilders-hit-by-Ed-Milibands-rent-control-plans.html
This time, I haven't seen a single poster over the entire constituency.
Not one. I have no idea who the candidate is even. No election literature - from anybody.
At least UKIP have some posters up. Although - the sweaty, shifty-looking guy in his photo doesn't invite you to let him have your vote....
@ElectionsEtc: NEW #GE2015 FORECAST: 78% chance Con most votes, 75% Con most seats, 52% Con PM, 10% Con maj http://t.co/ba9kB7bP63 http://t.co/uWKXFmcUag
Joking apart - the housing issue and the worries / problems of 'generation rent' are a very real issue that all parties shy away from. The 1000 pound throbbing gorilla in the corner is our insane planning laws. The problem of supply and demand can never be resolved until supply is liberalised. We have a huge, huge demand for housing and a gajillion builders / developers ready to build. The problem is that the state has decided to place very very severe restrictions on the supply. We need a 'brave' politician (in the Sir Humphrey sense) to make it very very much easier to obtain planning permission. This would of course collapse the value of land banks and housing. So bad for oldies and existing property owners but great for those who are currently excluded from the property ladder.
Thurrock also now in the purples column.
Without the LibDems, this leaves Ed well adrift in second place. His only chance of seeing the Queen rests on the SNP. But what can he tell Her Majesty about the Govt. he proposes that does not fly in the face of everything he is currently telling the voters about Labour's relationship with the SNP? I am just not seeing how Ed becomes Prime Minister without a formal relationship with them. Which would kill his party stone dead in an October election.
Fun times ahead....
Were Grimsby ever in Division One (old style)?
One actual gorilla is subsidies for landlords, aka housing benefits.
Just as West Ham would once have been in Essex.
It is better than a few years ago but there are still a lot of developments being very carefully spread out over much longer periods than is necessary because of the lack of demand. The ONS figures for construction are very dodgy but there seems little doubt that we could be building a lot more houses now if the builders were confident that they could sell them.
This is why Ed's policy is so crazy of course. BTL house owners have significant downsides but they are the mainstay of demand in the current market. That is why an attack on them brings down the value of housebuilders and reduces their likely future output.
I think what we'll find out after the results are known is that UNS is dead and buried, and that a relatively close election percentages wise will end up delivering a seat share in which there is a very big gap between the top two. FPTP in a multi-party system makes using opinion polls to divine an actual outcome a thankless task.
Somewhat perversely the continuing high SNP polling and media narrative of a wipe out has also seen a move for the leading unionist party in constituencies to hoover up the NO vote.
The question is whether in around 20 or so constituencies this tactical voting will be able to resist the SNP tide. It'll probably be a very mixed picture.
Sound post by Mr. Smithson. It also suggests that methodology is leading to not giving a true picture for at least some pollsters.
This is very amusing.
Dumfries and Galloway is an obvious example. The risk is that the Unionist vote splits down the middle between the tories and Labour and the SNP comes through to win. This seems likely to happen in Kincardine and Argyll too.
The Unionists underestimated the challenge. Had they appreciated what was coming I think deals would have been done.
Try telling that to the Seigneur du Château Gonflable.
Things like this should be an absolute free market where no one takes any notice of their competitors
My SPUD of course shows that Labour have fallen back most over the last 8 days polling , with the Tories holding steady ish
Whether that's important or not, who knows? But it seems to be the case
Was out knocking on doors in the Grove area of Kingston last night for a mate who is standing for council in a byelection. Student area and the vitriol towards the LibDems as expected was horrendous..wasnt much better to us as Tories . Local people as well giving Davey a bit of a wide berth. Not sure how representative it was but it felt not very pleasant.
If overall losses are just over 50% the complexion of the party will have changed. It seems to me that the Lib Dems are going to lose most of their Celtic connections with major losses in the south west as well. What remains will choose one of their own.
Sadly the nightmarish developments built in the 1960s and 1970s hurt the public image of high-rise housing. This is improving, but too slowly. If you want people to live anywhere near the centre of any city, it has to be high-rise. But we should not repeat the mistakes of the past.
We should also get over this obsession with tractor-statting house build numbers, and instead concentrate on building communities.
asjohnstone: "Can you point me towards an occasion when a party has refused power when the arithmetic stacked up. It didn't stack up in 2010"
It did stack up in 2010. The party (not Gordon) decided it wasn’t in their interests. It played out then exactly as Southam has envisaged next week.
The main argument used in Scotland and Wales to get the troublesome Celts to vote in line is -- "only a Labour Govt can defeat the Tories”. They are certainly still running round Wales saying it.
Once that has been shown to be untrue, then not merely are Labour’s Scottish seats gone forever, there will be 28 extremely nervous Welsh Labour MPs (26 + 2 likely gains in Cardiff).
Many of the former SLAB seats will have small SNP majorities, Labour will not give up on them immediately.
You are welcome to your fantasy, but if Ed gets only 260 seats, I think there is a terrible reckoning coming for him.
And -- in Labour party terms -- rightly so. He has presided over a complete catastrophe in one of their core regions, which, if it isn’t fixed, will mean the party struggling to obtain a majority ever again.
It’d be interesting to hear from Labour insider HenryGManson .... I don’t remember him being Ed’s greatest fan.
Probably the minimum needed for Ed’s survival is a net gain of 15-20, so he can at least try and argue progress is being made.