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Pulpstar said:
I don't know it you're right, but odds of 20-1 are available on just this proposition...Dair said:
In Stirling, the Tories are almost certainly in second place to the SNP. Nice of their supporters to abandon them for the already finished Anne Mcguire. Should boost the SNP majority a good chunk.calum said:TACTICAL VOTING ALERT
A Stirling Tory has finally come out and announced he will be voting tactically for SLAB.
https://medium.com/@chrisdeerin/why-i-will-vote-labour-b058b17e042f
This normal voter happens to be writing articles for the Daily Mail and even had the opportunity to discuss his devious plan with the great man himself, I mean David Cameron not Jim Murphy.
To quote the Tory candidate in Gordon:
"Colin Clark, the Tory candidate in the seat, accused Ms Jardine of "desperation" and said her tactics were motivated by the collapse of her core vote. "Nationally the Liberals are polling at four per cent," he said. "People who are voting tactically for them are under false pretences, their own core vote has disappeared. That's true in Gordon just like it is everywhere else. Tactical voting is the saviour of a party with no policies".
https://sports.spreadex.com/en-GB/spread-betting/Politics/UK-Politics/Constituencies-Q-S/p276382
Buy CON Stirling @ 0.5
SNP will win Stirling but the Tories may well come second.
The Tories have a great poker hand but are slow playing it. The SNP have a total bluff but are representing a pair of queens at least. Labour has not looked at its cards yet, the Lib Dems are throwing in a good hand and UKIP has an Ace and a deuce. (This is a dangerous hand which normally goes wrong.)
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Can't see the Lib Dems going for that one lol.KentRising said:ICM forced choice answer interesting.
Con-LD-UKIP-DUP coalition 2% ahead of Lab-SNP.
DUP AND UKIP !0 -
Yep, still a virtual dead heat. Start measuring up those curtains for No.10, Ed. I suggest a Saltire motif.0
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Maybe their sample was "a touch too Labour"?TGOHF said:ICM turns bouncy.
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The post-debate polls show three leads each for the Conservatives and Labour, and one tie.
Conservative 33.9%, Labour 33.7%, UKIP 13.7%.0 -
It seems crazy to have a policy of not rescuing migrants from death due to creating a "pull factor" of immigration, while happily providing residency for the ones that manage to successfully cross. We are effectively saying to millions of victims of war "we won't do anything for you, unless you manage to make it through a highly dangerous cross-contient obstacle cross, and then we'll give you a better life than you've ever dreamed of".TGOHF said:Neil said:
Ouch, and I thought I could be sarcastic!TGOHF said:
Ghaddafi no longer funding the IRA - tickHurstLlama said:
Well, Mr. D, is not the point of having armed forces that they be used to defend the nation's vital interests? If so then Cameron's Libyan adventure failed on just about every level.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, really?
Libya was embroiled in civil war with Gaddafi bragging about a genocide. The situation there now is terrible. There's no guarantee it wouldn't be as bad if the West hadn't gotten involved [ISIS may have taken over the opposition anyway].
I agree with the basic plan of a processing centre in North Africa. Tunisia/Morocco could work.
Megrahi no longer in Uk jail - tick
Disincentives for migrants to try and cross the med - tick
Depends how you define failure.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11549721/The-900-refugees-dead-in-the-Mediterranean-were-killed-by-British-government-policy.html0 -
'Non-Progressive Alliance'?!Pulpstar said:
Can't see the Lib Dems going for that one lol.KentRising said:ICM forced choice answer interesting.
Con-LD-UKIP-DUP coalition 2% ahead of Lab-SNP.
DUP AND UKIP !
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No, you don't get it. You have partly understood, and grossly over generalised, a point about medical research, and conflated opinion polling with scientific research which it actually isn't.Dair said:
You don't get it.Richard_Nabavi said:
In my experience the single argument which is most effective in persuading UKIP/Con waverers to return to the Tories is the SNP one. So I think they are doing exactly the right thing in that respect, although it's effective even without the Tories doing anything.Bob__Sykes said:But that message isn't getting across because Tory HQ is stupidly obsessed about the SNP and not demolishing UKIP - the only single thing that could still return them to power should they manage to knock them down to single figures.
An anecdotal experience which has no polling evidence is not real. It is merely confirmation bias affecting your judgement.
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Well, that's made my day ICM still leading with Tories.0
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Presumably ICM now has corrected their gremlin and now has the Tories at a more plausible level in Scotland, thus bringing their overall poll back into line with everyone else - ie, Dave still losing the election, business as usual?0
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Nigeria is an enemy of Israel?FalseFlag said:Anorak said:
My post was a little mousetrap but it seems to have caught a rabid honey badger.FalseFlag said:
Indeed, enemies of Israel.Anorak said:
Given the differences in ethnicity, history and underlying culture, it's weird that's happened at the same time. Almost like there was some factor they all have in common. All I can think of is lots of sunshine.Casino_Royale said:
There's a whole swathe of North Africa and the Middle East now, from Libya to Nigeria, to Somalia to South Sudan, to Yemen, to Palestine, to Syria and Iraq, that is practically ungovernable.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, really?
Libya was embroiled in civil war with Gaddafi bragging about a genocide. The situation there now is terrible. There's no guarantee it wouldn't be as bad if the West hadn't gotten involved [ISIS may have taken over the opposition anyway].
I agree with the basic plan of a processing centre in North Africa. Tunisia/Morocco could work.
https://consortiumnews.com/2015/04/13/neocon-chaos-promotion-in-the-mideast/
Israel has a long term strategy of fomenting religious and racial hatred in the region in order to weaken their opponents.
http://www.monabaker.com/pMachine/more.php?id=A2298_0_1_0_M
http://mycatbirdseat.com/2014/07/the-unfolding-of-yinons-zionist-plan-for-the-middle-east-the-crisis-in-iraq-and-the-centrality-of-the-national-interest-of-israel/0 -
UKIP are going to have neither the seats nor the inclination for a coalition. Passive confidence, perhaps.Pulpstar said:
Can't see the Lib Dems going for that one lol.KentRising said:ICM forced choice answer interesting.
Con-LD-UKIP-DUP coalition 2% ahead of Lab-SNP.
DUP AND UKIP !0 -
It took decades of SLAB taking voters for granted before their grip weakened, I suspect the SNP appearing overconfident and a little too expectant that the votes are already theirs will not prove problematic in the short term at the very least. And if they get results? The passion and loyalty of the recently converted can be hard to dent.Cyclefree said:On topic: thanks for the article on the previous thread. Very interesting.
Re the SNP. Is there a risk of hubris, particularly among Scottish voters? Is Ms Sturgeon taking Scottish voters for granted? And could there be a swing back to SLAB, as a result? I'd be interested in the views of our Scottish posters.0 -
We await the analysis of public/private sector workersBob__Sykes said:Presumably ICM now has corrected their gremlin and now has the Tories at a more plausible level in Scotland, thus bringing their overall poll back into line with everyone else - ie, Dave still losing the election, business as usual?
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Great analogy on the hands.hamiltonace said:Pulpstar said:
I don't know it you're right, but odds of 20-1 are available on just this proposition...Dair said:
In Stirling, the Tories are almost certainly in second place to the SNP. Nice of their supporters to abandon them for the already finished Anne Mcguire. Should boost the SNP majority a good chunk.calum said:TACTICAL VOTING ALERT
A Stirling Tory has finally come out and announced he will be voting tactically for SLAB.
https://medium.com/@chrisdeerin/why-i-will-vote-labour-b058b17e042f
This normal voter happens to be writing articles for the Daily Mail and even had the opportunity to discuss his devious plan with the great man himself, I mean David Cameron not Jim Murphy.
To quote the Tory candidate in Gordon:
"Colin Clark, the Tory candidate in the seat, accused Ms Jardine of "desperation" and said her tactics were motivated by the collapse of her core vote. "Nationally the Liberals are polling at four per cent," he said. "People who are voting tactically for them are under false pretences, their own core vote has disappeared. That's true in Gordon just like it is everywhere else. Tactical voting is the saviour of a party with no policies".
https://sports.spreadex.com/en-GB/spread-betting/Politics/UK-Politics/Constituencies-Q-S/p276382
Buy CON Stirling @ 0.5
SNP will win Stirling but the Tories may well come second.
The Tories have a great poker hand but are slow playing it. The SNP have a total bluff but are representing a pair of queens at least. Labour has not looked at its cards yet, the Lib Dems are throwing in a good hand and UKIP has an Ace and a deuce. (This is a dangerous hand which normally goes wrong.)0 -
Nonsense. The problem in 2010 was that, as Sean F observed, the strategic review didn't really start from the strategy. Luckily Liam Fox is no longer in charge, so there's every reason to be hopeful that a different Defence Secretary could do a better job.HurstLlama said:
If Cameron does get back in the 2015 defence review will be conducted on the same basis as the 2010 review. Why would it not be, the same people will be in charge. The defence secretary's role is only to adjudicate on how the Treasury imposed cuts will be divided up between the three services.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, I am afraid that is a fair comment. Liam Fox didn't seem to have done the pre-election preparation that colleagues in other departments did.Sean_F said:The Strategic Defence Review of 2010 was devoid of strategy.
I think we will need a second go in the next parliament, assuming of course we have a government capable of doing anything other than give freebies to Nicola.
What that would mean for spending is a separate question - clearly, money is going to be tight. But the key thing is to get the strategic part of the review right, and then figure out the most cost-effective way of delivering it.0 -
Looking at that ICM I would say Cameron's in with a better chance of scraping in than I expected. Labour will drop a point or two on election day and that could just be the difference.Bob__Sykes said:Presumably ICM now has corrected their gremlin and now has the Tories at a more plausible level in Scotland, thus bringing their overall poll back into line with everyone else - ie, Dave still losing the election, business as usual?
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Mr. Sykes, worth noting all polls have a certain fuzziness, and every so often one will just be plain wrong.
Four consecutive Con leads (3, 3, 6, 2), although the direction of travel in the latest is not good for them. As I said below, surprised UKIP rose from 7 to 11.
Edited extra bit: is this the penultimate ICM poll? Presumably they'll have one on the eve of the election.0 -
Nothing, but nothing is going to stop the political once in a lifetime tsunami that is enveloping Scotland- apart from the Shetlands and Orkney that hate the Scots more than the English.Cyclefree said:On topic: thanks for the article on the previous thread. Very interesting.
Re the SNP. Is there a risk of hubris, particularly among Scottish voters? Is Ms Sturgeon taking Scottish voters for granted? And could there be a swing back to SLAB, as a result? I'd be interested in the views of our Scottish posters.
I've got ginger hair (sort of), does that count as your Scottish rep?
BTW- What do you call a pretty girl in Scotland?
A tourist.
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That's four consecutive leads with ICM for the Conservatives. It's far too soon to be throwing in the towel. Would Margaret Thatcher or John Major just be giving up at this point?Bob__Sykes said:Presumably ICM now has corrected their gremlin and now has the Tories at a more plausible level in Scotland, thus bringing their overall poll back into line with everyone else - ie, Dave still losing the election, business as usual?
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Conservatives losing The Big Mo with ICM!
Lab lead next week?0 -
UKIP would be best off standing to one side (ala Farage at the end of the BBC debate) while the other parties besmirch themselves with the tawdry coalition bun-fight. Look purer than pure, look different, look principled, rise in the polls slowly but surely.Tissue_Price said:
UKIP are going to have neither the seats nor the inclination for a coalition. Passive confidence, perhaps.Pulpstar said:
Can't see the Lib Dems going for that one lol.KentRising said:ICM forced choice answer interesting.
Con-LD-UKIP-DUP coalition 2% ahead of Lab-SNP.
DUP AND UKIP !0 -
Will this small Con lead be acceptable to the New Statesman ?0
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I think today will be as low as the tories get between now and the election. Today will register the last of the negativity from the Challangers Debate and, after today, the hammering home of the Labour/SNP stitch up will start having an effect. Meanwhile, UKIP will steadily dwindle as the fact they are not going to have a breakthrough becomes apparent.
Would expect tories to be averaging 35/36 by 2nd/3rd May and poll 37/38 on the day0 -
The last one was a clear outlier. This is a decent (but not great) poll for the Conservatives.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sykes, worth noting all polls have a certain fuzziness, and every so often one will just be plain wrong.
Four consecutive Con leads (3, 3, 6, 2), although the direction of travel in the latest is not good for them. As I said below, surprised UKIP rose from 7 to 11.0 -
I think we can safely conclude that Bob Sykes is no Margaret Thatcher. Perhaps RAB Butler in 1940?Sean_F said:
That's four consecutive leads with ICM for the Conservatives. It's far too soon to be throwing in the towel. Would Margaret Thatcher or John Major just be giving up at this point?Bob__Sykes said:Presumably ICM now has corrected their gremlin and now has the Tories at a more plausible level in Scotland, thus bringing their overall poll back into line with everyone else - ie, Dave still losing the election, business as usual?
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The pollsters asking people about coalitions which are vanishingly unlikelyTissue_Price said:
UKIP are going to have neither the seats nor the inclination for a coalition. Passive confidence, perhaps.Pulpstar said:
Can't see the Lib Dems going for that one lol.KentRising said:ICM forced choice answer interesting.
Con-LD-UKIP-DUP coalition 2% ahead of Lab-SNP.
DUP AND UKIP ! 0 -
Well, exactly. The logic of Dan's position is that we should send ferries over to North Africa to pick up would-be migrants.JEO said:
It seems crazy to have a policy of not rescuing migrants from death due to creating a "pull factor" of immigration, while happily providing residency for the ones that manage to successfully cross. We are effectively saying to millions of victims of war "we won't do anything for you, unless you manage to make it through a highly dangerous cross-contient obstacle cross, and then we'll give you a better life than you've ever dreamed of".TGOHF said:Neil said:
Ouch, and I thought I could be sarcastic!TGOHF said:
Ghaddafi no longer funding the IRA - tickHurstLlama said:
Well, Mr. D, is not the point of having armed forces that they be used to defend the nation's vital interests? If so then Cameron's Libyan adventure failed on just about every level.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, really?
Libya was embroiled in civil war with Gaddafi bragging about a genocide. The situation there now is terrible. There's no guarantee it wouldn't be as bad if the West hadn't gotten involved [ISIS may have taken over the opposition anyway].
I agree with the basic plan of a processing centre in North Africa. Tunisia/Morocco could work.
Megrahi no longer in Uk jail - tick
Disincentives for migrants to try and cross the med - tick
Depends how you define failure.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11549721/The-900-refugees-dead-in-the-Mediterranean-were-killed-by-British-government-policy.html
It might be unpleasant to defend your borders, or to rely on the sea doing that for you, but I think it's pretty clearly what people want.
Obviously - and this should go without saying, but DH has elided his argument to make it necessary that I do - no-one wants anyone to die.0 -
Some people are getting far too gaylord ponceyboots over the poll.
Had you have told PBers, that their party would have led with ICM in every poll in 2015, they'd have snapped your hand off.0 -
Nelson is a complete tw**Tissue_Price said:Nice piece from Fraser Nelson on the SNP's antiquated campaigning:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/how-nicola-sturgeon-is-blundering-her-way-to-a-majority/0 -
Absolutely. With new female leadership (cf. Sturgeon) they could do very well in the election of February 2016.KentRising said:
UKIP would be best off standing to one side (ala Farage at the end of the BBC debate) while the other parties besmirch themselves with the tawdry coalition bun-fight. Look purer than pure, look different, look principled, rise in the polls slowly but surely.Tissue_Price said:
UKIP are going to have neither the seats nor the inclination for a coalition. Passive confidence, perhaps.Pulpstar said:
Can't see the Lib Dems going for that one lol.KentRising said:ICM forced choice answer interesting.
Con-LD-UKIP-DUP coalition 2% ahead of Lab-SNP.
DUP AND UKIP !0 -
Thank you. To me - but I am in London - they sound a touch hubristic. I wonder, therefore, whether the SLAB wipeout will be as bad as forecast. If a party were so obviously behaving as if they were guaranteed my vote I'd be tempted to give them a bloody nose.kle4 said:
It took decades of SLAB taking voters for granted before their grip weakened, I suspect the SNP appearing overconfident and a little too expectant that the votes are already theirs will not prove problematic in the short term at the very least. And if they get results? The passion and loyalty of the recently converted can be hard to dent.Cyclefree said:On topic: thanks for the article on the previous thread. Very interesting.
Re the SNP. Is there a risk of hubris, particularly among Scottish voters? Is Ms Sturgeon taking Scottish voters for granted? And could there be a swing back to SLAB, as a result? I'd be interested in the views of our Scottish posters.
Purely anecdotal but I was talking to a family member who lives in another marginal London constituency and he commented - and he is pretty small "c" conservative and old-fashioned (in the best sense) - that EdM was growing on him (as a person) and he thought the Tory campaign was dire. He's going to some hustings in the constituency later this week.
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Are the guts of the poll up yet ?TheScreamingEagles said:Some people are getting far too gaylord ponceyboots over the poll.
Had you have told PBers, that their party would have led with ICM in every poll in 2015, they'd have snapped your hand off.0 -
Have you even read the article, you halfbaked turnip? He's paying you a compliment.malcolmg said:
Nelson is a complete tw**Tissue_Price said:Nice piece from Fraser Nelson on the SNP's antiquated campaigning:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/how-nicola-sturgeon-is-blundering-her-way-to-a-majority/0 -
34/32 or more or less "neck and neck" or EICIPM.TheScreamingEagles said:Some people are getting far too gaylord ponceyboots over the poll.
Had you have told PBers, that their party would have led with ICM in every poll in 2015, they'd have snapped your hand off.
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No, but we're led by David Cameron.Sean_F said:
That's four consecutive leads with ICM for the Conservatives. It's far too soon to be throwing in the towel. Would Margaret Thatcher or John Major just be giving up at this point?Bob__Sykes said:Presumably ICM now has corrected their gremlin and now has the Tories at a more plausible level in Scotland, thus bringing their overall poll back into line with everyone else - ie, Dave still losing the election, business as usual?
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This ICM looks about right. A 2% Con lead is my current gut-feel lead for polling day. Not enough of course.
Also shows the only hope Cameron has left is to massively squeeze the Kippers.0 -
malcolmg said:
Nelson is a complete tw**Tissue_Price said:Nice piece from Fraser Nelson on the SNP's antiquated campaigning:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/how-nicola-sturgeon-is-blundering-her-way-to-a-majority/
Have you read the article, Malcolm? I think you will be pleasantly surprised.
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You can't then?Cyclefree said:
Can you tell me how to prove a negative?FalseFlag said:
Can you point to anything that says this hasn't been and isn't Israel's foreign policy?Sean_F said:
These Jews are damned cunning, aren't they?Neil said:
Dammit, it's so obvious now that you point it out. Why do I continue to forget that it's always the fault of the Jews?FalseFlag said:
Indeed, enemies of Israel.Anorak said:
Given the differences in ethnicity, history and underlying culture, it's weird that's happened at the same time. Almost like there was some factor they all have in common. All I can think of is lots of sunshine.Casino_Royale said:
There's a whole swathe of North Africa and the Middle East now, from Libya to Nigeria, to Somalia to South Sudan, to Yemen, to Palestine, to Syria and Iraq, that is practically ungovernable.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, really?
Libya was embroiled in civil war with Gaddafi bragging about a genocide. The situation there now is terrible. There's no guarantee it wouldn't be as bad if the West hadn't gotten involved [ISIS may have taken over the opposition anyway].
I agree with the basic plan of a processing centre in North Africa. Tunisia/Morocco could work.
https://consortiumnews.com/2015/04/13/neocon-chaos-promotion-in-the-mideast/
Israel has a long term strategy of fomenting religious and racial hatred in the region in order to weaken their opponents.
http://www.monabaker.com/pMachine/more.php?id=A2298_0_1_0_M
http://mycatbirdseat.com/2014/07/the-unfolding-of-yinons-zionist-plan-for-the-middle-east-the-crisis-in-iraq-and-the-centrality-of-the-national-interest-of-israel/0 -
So last week's was an outlier, but obviously the ICM methodology is still giving the Tories a consistent lead. Only time will tell if the methodology is actually relevant to these times. I suspect them re-assigning UKIP voters back to the Tories, simply because they voted Tory last time, is a wrong assumption. But I fear their downweighting of Labour because of how uncertain they are to vote might be accurate.0
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I think the correct historical analogy for the Conservatives' current position is that of Wellington's forces about half way through the Battle of Waterloo. It could still go in either direction.JohnO said:
I think we can safely conclude that Bob Sykes is no Margaret Thatcher. Perhaps RAB Butler in 1940?Sean_F said:
That's four consecutive leads with ICM for the Conservatives. It's far too soon to be throwing in the towel. Would Margaret Thatcher or John Major just be giving up at this point?Bob__Sykes said:Presumably ICM now has corrected their gremlin and now has the Tories at a more plausible level in Scotland, thus bringing their overall poll back into line with everyone else - ie, Dave still losing the election, business as usual?
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BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS **** BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS ****
Had a very pleasant, amusing and informative chat over breakfast with a senior Conservative source that has previously provided very accurate informative and accurate
The sausages, eggs, bacon and black pudding were splendid.
And now for less important news .....
Here are the summary highlights and I'll leave the "juicy nugget" until the end .... no scrolling down to the end !!
Conservative - The campaign team and fellow travellers essentially fall into three camps - I'm dubbing them the Dad's Army team.
The first are the Private Frazer grouping - "We're all doomed !!" - Their assessment is that the campaign has hitter the buffers, is gaining little traction and they have underestimated Miliband and that the Crosby strategy is failing to deliver. They represent a small but slowly growing group.
The second group, including the PM, are the Sgt Wilson team - nothing much ruffles them, they take events as they see them and are fairly laid back. They believe all will work out in the end. This is the largest group
The last group are the Cpl Jones group. "Don't Panic" - They represent a significant strand that has the will for the fight but gets temporarily flustered when the polls and other events dent the overall plan.
Overall the Blue team feel that they still have an outside shot of a small majority but another Coalition is most likely. Their own internal polling is marginally better than the norm. They believe they are performing better in all areas in England except most of Greater London. They are disappointed that some of their signature policies such as right to buy appear not to have gained much traction.
The PM remains upbeat, energetic and appropriately optimistic of the win. Most of the senior figures in the campaign are genuinely of the same mind.
Con-Lab .. Expecting modest losses and likely one or two gains - one somewhat under the radar. Net approx 20 losses.
Con-LibDem .. Six gains considered "in the bag". Another ten TCTC.
Con-UKIP. Seeing continued seepage back from Kippers. Clacton possibly only UKIP seat. Reckless struggling and Farage no shoe-in. Likely Kippers will rack up a few dozen good second places.
Wales - As you were.
Scotland - Struggling against the SNP tide. Might have zero or two seats. Expecting Labour to lose 45+ seats to SNP.
............................................................................
And the best till last ....
There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.
The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.
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Well said Mr Dancer - International aid is basically global welfare, at best it keeps the world's poor, poor and dependent. At worst it keep's the world's dictators and despots in large houses and nice cars.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Rentool, maintaining the capacity of this country to defend its territories and interests matters far more than throwing money around willy-nilly. Acute aid in response to a specific crisis (disease, famine, etc) is a very good thing. Chronic aid, hooking up nations to a steady drip of money, doesn't bloody work.
If we actually want Africa to get richer we need to reduce trade barriers, encourage business and use growth to lift the poor from their poverty (as has happened in China and India).
The single biggest thing we could do to help Africa is to reform the CAP to allow them to sell us their crops. It's the famous difference between giving a man a fish and teaching him how to fish.0 -
Why did the last defence review not start with strategy? Why would the next one if Cameron and Osborn are still in charge?Richard_Nabavi said:
Nonsense. The problem in 2010 was that, as Sean F observed, the strategic review didn't really start from the strategy. Luckily Liam Fox is no longer in charge, so there's every reason to be hopeful that a different Defence Secretary could do a better job.HurstLlama said:
If Cameron does get back in the 2015 defence review will be conducted on the same basis as the 2010 review. Why would it not be, the same people will be in charge. The defence secretary's role is only to adjudicate on how the Treasury imposed cuts will be divided up between the three services.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, I am afraid that is a fair comment. Liam Fox didn't seem to have done the pre-election preparation that colleagues in other departments did.Sean_F said:The Strategic Defence Review of 2010 was devoid of strategy.
I think we will need a second go in the next parliament, assuming of course we have a government capable of doing anything other than give freebies to Nicola.
What that would mean for spending is a separate question - clearly, money is going to be tight. But the key thing is to get the strategic part of the review right, and then figure out the most cost-effective way of delivering it.0 -
Many thanks to Sunny Jim and his 125/1 each way tip, came third.0
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Well that would be a surprise. But very interesting indeed. Thank you young man.JackW said:BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS **** BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS ****
There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.
The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.0 -
I hope you had the e/w double with his other tip...TheScreamingEagles said:Many thanks to Sunny Jim and his 125/1 each way tip, came third.
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My guess is that 34/32 would leave the Conservatives on c.290 seats.0
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Didn't actually bother reading Nelson's article then, Mr. G.. I would have thought you would have learned by now.malcolmg said:
Nelson is a complete tw**Tissue_Price said:Nice piece from Fraser Nelson on the SNP's antiquated campaigning:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/how-nicola-sturgeon-is-blundering-her-way-to-a-majority/0 -
And the only thing left to do,is a early EU referendum.Casino_Royale said:This ICM looks about right. A 2% Con lead is my current gut-feel lead for polling day. Not enough of course.
Also shows the only hope Cameron has left is to massively squeeze the Kippers.
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@JackW. Wow. Cameron thinks a direct 1:1 debate is worth the risk?
It must be bad. But it may be worth it given the polls.0 -
Tyson
"apart from the Shetlands and Orkney that hate the Scots more than the English"
Is that why the SNP topped the List/Party vote in Orkney in Holyrood 2011 and came a close second in Shetland.
Not predicting an SNP gain in Orkney and Shetland, but you never know.0 -
That would be pretty amusing to see. How Cameron would spin such late acceptance I do not know, particularly since it will if the situation 'remains static' as you put it, suggesting if we continue to see no changes the leadership are expecting to lose and to need to change things up.JackW said:
And the best till last ....
There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.
Much obliged for the information.0 -
As two singlesTissue_Price said:
I hope you had the e/w double with his other tip...TheScreamingEagles said:Many thanks to Sunny Jim and his 125/1 each way tip, came third.
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Changing tack on the debates would leave Cameron looking ridiculous, IMO.JackW said:BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS **** BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS ****
And the best till last ....
There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.
The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.
He's made his choice (not to go head to head) now he has to stick with it.
Hope the black pudding doesn't cause any blockages to Jack's ARSE...
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0
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Because Cameron's style is very much to delegate. In many cases - welfare, education - that has proven a dramatic success. In a few cases, most notably defence in 2010, the minister given the delegated responsibility didn't do a good job.HurstLlama said:Why did the last defence review not start with strategy? Why would the next one if Cameron and Osborn are still in charge?
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It was funny , which is not like him.PeterC said:
A brilliant and devastating piece of irony.Tissue_Price said:Nice piece from Fraser Nelson on the SNP's antiquated campaigning:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/how-nicola-sturgeon-is-blundering-her-way-to-a-majority/0 -
I missed that post...TheScreamingEagles said:
As two singlesTissue_Price said:
I hope you had the e/w double with his other tip...TheScreamingEagles said:Many thanks to Sunny Jim and his 125/1 each way tip, came third.
Not that I can get on with Stan or James anyway.0 -
So that 39% Tory poll was the exception. That big 5% drop by the Tories is just within the bounds of noise. Wonder why it's so noisy.0
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Two areas where, according to the chart, Labour lead the Tories. That's dramatic success??Richard_Nabavi said:
Because Cameron's style is very much to delegate. In many cases - welfare, education - that has proven a dramatic success.0 -
"Including him risks another Cleggasm"JackW said:And the best till last ....
There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.
The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.
Cannot see that happening. Last time it was because no one wanted Brown, but the Tories were still hated, hence "how about Clegg" suddenly became real.
Given the last 5 years, this is not an option.
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You don't think that ignoring the facts is just the same as you claim?GIN1138 said:
I just think people wading through the sub samples looking for weighting problems to explain why "their" party is where it is looks a bit desperate?Flightpath said:
You are the one nit picking. How is this sample meant to be representative. I don't know how the election will turn out but the polls seem to be making it up as they go along.GIN1138 said:
More nit picking because the Tories aren't doing a good enough job at convincing people to vote for them?chestnut said:
Unweighted sampleTheScreamingEagles said:
Charts and tables hereTheScreamingEagles said:Ed Miliband is boosted today by an exclusive poll showing Labour ahead of the Conservatives on four of the top six election issues.
In a blow to David Cameron, both Labour and Ukip are ahead of the Conservatives on immigration and asylum — an issue that senior Tories hoped would play to their favour — according to new research by Ipsos MORI.
A league table of public priorities puts the NHS first, followed by the economy, education, immigration, taxation and benefits.
http://bit.ly/1D5Ycqi
http://bit.ly/1bk1H5M
Public sector: 211
Private Sector: 290
I know they weight, but 42% of workers in the raw sample are public sector workers?
And I used to say the same back around 2008-2010 when Labour supporters would do the same (remember all the criticism we hard from Livingstone about YouGov during the 2008 Mayoral election?)0 -
LOL, how can anyone be so out of touch with reality and claim to actually live in Scotlandhamiltonace said:
""My view on the SNP "threat" is that it resonates well in Surrey Heath but is barely an issue anywhere else. Indeed, the reception Sturgeon is getting is probably undermining every single Sturgeon with Ed in pocket billboard poster appearing in every northern working class Tory held marginal. I mentioned the one on the main st in Colne (Pendle) last week - I think many in Colne are looking at that as a prospectus and thinking "I quite like the sound of that, how do I vote for her?"
That's why the Tory focus on the SNP is going so catastrophically, calamitously wrong.
Why can only a handful of us see this??""
There is a strange love affair between some of the English and the SNP which is hard to fathom. The SNP are highly political and only look after themselves. If you are a Scot who does not agree with them then you are ostracised at every junction. If something goes wrong then it is always the fault of the b...dy English.
What amazes me is that it is only the Tories who have the guts to take them head on whilst Labour seem to think they can be their friends. I had a Scottish Labour leaflet today which attacked the Tories / Coalition in 4 sections while ignored the SNP. The only way that Labour will hold their seat is convincing the 20% who support Lib Dems / Tories to help them. Guess what the result of our seat will be.
The Tory campaign is weak but I see their attack on the SNP as the only area where they actually are showing strength. Much better than trying to bribe the electorate with their own money.0 -
LibDem + DUP = Fifty shades of Orange0
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I think for the final 18 days or whatever it is of the election I shall conduct a form of monitoring entitled SPUDS (Sam's Polling Ups & Downs)
This will focus on the changes from the previous poll , and result in a positive or negative figure at the end of each day, giving a clear indication of the way the wind is blowing on any given day
For instance, so far today (2 polls) we have
Con -6
Lab -1
UKIP +5
LD +2
Green -2
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Generally looks about right. But even on those optimistic CCO figures that only gets them to about 292-296 seats. Amusing that CCO expect Labour to lose more seats in Scotland than they actually have. Does Murphy count as two?JackW said:BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS **** BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS ****
The first are the Private Frazer grouping - "We're all doomed !!" - Their assessment is that the campaign has hitter the buffers, is gaining little traction and they have underestimated Miliband and that the Crosby strategy is failing to deliver. They represent a small but slowly growing group.
The second group, including the PM, are the Sgt Wilson team - nothing much ruffles them, they take events as they see them and are fairly laid back. They believe all will work out in the end. This is the largest group
The last group are the Cpl Jones group. "Don't Panic" - They represent a significant strand that has the will for the fight but gets temporarily flustered when the polls and other events dent the overall plan.
Overall the Blue team feel that they still have an outside shot of a small majority but another Coalition is most likely. Their own internal polling is marginally better than the norm. They believe they are performing better in all areas in England except most of Greater London. They are disappointed that some of their signature policies such as right to buy appear not to have gained much traction.
The PM remains upbeat, energetic and appropriately optimistic of the win. Most of the senior figures in the campaign are genuinely of the same mind.
Con-Lab .. Expecting modest losses and likely one or two gains - one somewhat under the radar. Net approx 20 losses.
Con-LibDem .. Six gains considered "in the bag". Another ten TCTC.
Con-UKIP. Seeing continued seepage back from Kippers. Clacton possibly only UKIP seat. Reckless struggling and Farage no shoe-in. Likely Kippers will rack up a few dozen good second places.
Wales - As you were.
Scotland - Struggling against the SNP tide. Might have zero or two seats. Expecting Labour to lose 45+ seats to SNP.
............................................................................
And the best till last ....
There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.
The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.
Love the 'under the radar' gain. Birmingham Northfield, please.
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So level pegging in phone polls also.0
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Very goodhamiltonace said:Pulpstar said:
I don't know it you're right, but odds of 20-1 are available on just this proposition...Dair said:
In Stirling, the Tories are almost certainly in second place to the SNP. Nice of their supporters to abandon them for the already finished Anne Mcguire. Should boost the SNP majority a good chunk.calum said:TACTICAL VOTING ALERT
A Stirling Tory has finally come out and announced he will be voting tactically for SLAB.
https://medium.com/@chrisdeerin/why-i-will-vote-labour-b058b17e042f
This normal voter happens to be writing articles for the Daily Mail and even had the opportunity to discuss his devious plan with the great man himself, I mean David Cameron not Jim Murphy.
To quote the Tory candidate in Gordon:
"Colin Clark, the Tory candidate in the seat, accused Ms Jardine of "desperation" and said her tactics were motivated by the collapse of her core vote. "Nationally the Liberals are polling at four per cent," he said. "People who are voting tactically for them are under false pretences, their own core vote has disappeared. That's true in Gordon just like it is everywhere else. Tactical voting is the saviour of a party with no policies".
https://sports.spreadex.com/en-GB/spread-betting/Politics/UK-Politics/Constituencies-Q-S/p276382
Buy CON Stirling @ 0.5
SNP will win Stirling but the Tories may well come second.
The Tories have a great poker hand but are slow playing it. The SNP have a total bluff but are representing a pair of queens at least. Labour has not looked at its cards yet, the Lib Dems are throwing in a good hand and UKIP has an Ace and a deuce. (This is a dangerous hand which normally goes wrong.)
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Yet if you read the thread header you'd think everything was bad for the blues and hunky dory for the reds. I'm surprised the teachers' YG isn't being trumpeted as well.Sean_F said:The post-debate polls show three leads each for the Conservatives and Labour, and one tie.
Conservative 33.9%, Labour 33.7%, UKIP 13.7%.0 -
Dropping four points in a week....this election is getting hard to call.
All we can say now is that ICM are all over the place and probably should be ignored.
YouGov have the experience and have always been close to the actual result. What's more they have done hundreds more polls than anyone else so their cross referencing should be spot on.0 -
The future's brightSandyRentool said:LibDem + DUP = Fifty shades of Orange
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Totally Off Thread - but a good command of logic may be needed for success at PB
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/11549731/Quiz-How-logical-are-you.html0 -
Polls having normal volatility means the polling company is reporting honestly. The ones I distrust are those that never have outliers, because the pollster will likely be selectively holding some back.Roger said:Dropping four points in a week....this election is getting hard to call.
All we can say now is that ICM are all over the place and probably should be ignored.
YouGov have the experience and have always been close to the actual result. What's more they have done hundreds more polls than anyone else so their cross referencing should be spot on.0 -
So cutting defence spending was actually a MoD decision?Richard_Nabavi said:
Because Cameron's style is very much to delegate. In many cases - welfare, education - that has proven a dramatic success. In a few cases, most notably defence in 2010, the minister given the delegated responsibility didn't do a good job.HurstLlama said:Why did the last defence review not start with strategy? Why would the next one if Cameron and Osborn are still in charge?
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Not a chance of it , will be few changing their minds if any.Cyclefree said:On topic: thanks for the article on the previous thread. Very interesting.
Re the SNP. Is there a risk of hubris, particularly among Scottish voters? Is Ms Sturgeon taking Scottish voters for granted? And could there be a swing back to SLAB, as a result? I'd be interested in the views of our Scottish posters.0 -
Softly she treads is available at 33-1 still, the place price on Betfair is 3-1, so it's value still.
Shape of the race is a value punter's wet dream/bookie's nightmare tbh.0 -
This is a strategy that some, and certainly nothing like a majority, are preparing for.Casino_Royale said:@JackW. Wow. Cameron thinks a direct 1:1 debate is worth the risk?
It must be bad. But it may be worth it given the polls.
If the circumstance change and demand it's strange how firm positions become somewhat looser.GIN1138 said:
Changing tack on the debates would leave Cameron looking ridiculous, IMO.JackW said:BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS **** BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS ****
And the best till last ....
There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.
The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.
He's made his choice (not to go head to head) now he has to stick with it.
Hope the black pudding doesn't cause any blockages to Jack's ARSE...
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They had an outlier. Everyone said it was an outlier at the time.Roger said:All we can say now is that ICM are all over the place and probably should be ignored
Outliers happen, and they will always happen*. Simple mathematics.
[*ok, pendants, there's a vanishingly small chance they will never happen again in our lifetimes]0 -
You mean Ed Miliband MIGHT be Prime Minister?JackW said:
This is a strategy that some, and certainly nothing like a majority, are preparing for.Casino_Royale said:@JackW. Wow. Cameron thinks a direct 1:1 debate is worth the risk?
It must be bad. But it may be worth it given the polls.
If the circumstance change and demand it's strange how firm positions become somewhat looser.GIN1138 said:
Changing tack on the debates would leave Cameron looking ridiculous, IMO.JackW said:BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS **** BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS ****
And the best till last ....
There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.
The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.
He's made his choice (not to go head to head) now he has to stick with it.
Hope the black pudding doesn't cause any blockages to Jack's ARSE...
Bob Sykes becomes my hero.0 -
Not always. Labour led in 11 out of 12 ICM polls in 2014, and also led 33/30 in the January ICM.isam said:
Haha that's because they always give them a good score!Plato said:Well, that's made my day ICM still leading with Tories.
Even if we assume last week's poll was an outlier, there's been a clear shift to the Conservatives with ICM.0 -
Stuart Dickson came close.malcolmg said:
LOL, how can anyone be so out of touch with reality and claim to actually live in Scotlandhamiltonace said:
""My view on the SNP "threat" is that it resonates well in Surrey Heath but is barely an issue anywhere else. Indeed, the reception Sturgeon is getting is probably undermining every single Sturgeon with Ed in pocket billboard poster appearing in every northern working class Tory held marginal. I mentioned the one on the main st in Colne (Pendle) last week - I think many in Colne are looking at that as a prospectus and thinking "I quite like the sound of that, how do I vote for her?"
That's why the Tory focus on the SNP is going so catastrophically, calamitously wrong.
Why can only a handful of us see this??""
There is a strange love affair between some of the English and the SNP which is hard to fathom. The SNP are highly political and only look after themselves. If you are a Scot who does not agree with them then you are ostracised at every junction. If something goes wrong then it is always the fault of the b...dy English.
What amazes me is that it is only the Tories who have the guts to take them head on whilst Labour seem to think they can be their friends. I had a Scottish Labour leaflet today which attacked the Tories / Coalition in 4 sections while ignored the SNP. The only way that Labour will hold their seat is convincing the 20% who support Lib Dems / Tories to help them. Guess what the result of our seat will be.
The Tory campaign is weak but I see their attack on the SNP as the only area where they actually are showing strength. Much better than trying to bribe the electorate with their own money.0 -
You've been predicting every possible option every time a new poll springs up. Consistency isn't your strong point.SeanT said:
lol. Some of us have been predicting this for about a year, and didn't need a fry-up with Ossie to discern the irresistible logic. Cameron is the underdog: underdogs need debates.JackW said:BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS **** BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS ****
And the best till last ....
There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.
The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.
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ICM the gold standard? They're as clueless as the rest.0
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I was merely commenting on him. If you look I did read and comment on the article elsewhere, surprisingly decent for him , not normal and must be down to his excitement at his Auntie meeting Alex and Nicola at the weekend. He is however still a complete tw**.Tissue_Price said:
Have you even read the article, you halfbaked turnip? He's paying you a compliment.malcolmg said:
Nelson is a complete tw**Tissue_Price said:Nice piece from Fraser Nelson on the SNP's antiquated campaigning:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/how-nicola-sturgeon-is-blundering-her-way-to-a-majority/0 -
You seem to have a Gordon-Brown-like view that spending more is by definition a Good Thing. My point - which I'd thought I'd made clearly enough - was to agree with Sean F that the strategic review didn't do a good job in reviewing strategy. That was what was wrong with it, not the spending total per se. I believe that taxpayers' money should be spent to achieve objectives, not the other way round, from which it follows that you need to do a really thorough job in assessing those objectives. That is what I think needs to be revisited next time.HurstLlama said:
So cutting defence spending was actually a MoD decision?Richard_Nabavi said:
Because Cameron's style is very much to delegate. In many cases - welfare, education - that has proven a dramatic success. In a few cases, most notably defence in 2010, the minister given the delegated responsibility didn't do a good job.HurstLlama said:Why did the last defence review not start with strategy? Why would the next one if Cameron and Osborn are still in charge?
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One should expect to see occasional outliers, and a reasonable amount of movement, if the pollster is doing their job properly.Roger said:Dropping four points in a week....this election is getting hard to call.
All we can say now is that ICM are all over the place and probably should be ignored.
YouGov have the experience and have always been close to the actual result. What's more they have done hundreds more polls than anyone else so their cross referencing should be spot on.0 -
Why are people relying on someone else to tip them up each way snides?
All you need is oddschecker, Betfair, and a brain0 -
@SunnyJim thanks managed to get on also much appreciated.Dair said:
Third place for Loukhaar. Managed to get on at 100 fixed. SP 33.SunnyJim said:Betting Post:
1420 Kempton Loukhaar 125-1 (SJ)
1530 Kempton Softly She Treads 40-1 (generally)
Shame the £3400 double for a £1 is gone.
And now we wait....0 -
Peter I did but gave my opinion of him first and then on the article in another post.PeterC said:malcolmg said:
Nelson is a complete tw**Tissue_Price said:Nice piece from Fraser Nelson on the SNP's antiquated campaigning:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/how-nicola-sturgeon-is-blundering-her-way-to-a-majority/
Have you read the article, Malcolm? I think you will be pleasantly surprised.0 -
My guess is that on the day the Tories will lead by around 5% (36-31) with the SNP doing exceptionally well. What would be the likley composition of the Commons?Sean_F said:
Not always. Labour led in 11 out of 12 ICM polls in 2014, and also led 33/30 in the January ICM.isam said:
Haha that's because they always give them a good score!Plato said:Well, that's made my day ICM still leading with Tories.
Even if we assume last week's poll was an outlier, there's been a clear shift to the Conservatives with ICM.0 -
Yeah, was a joke SeanSean_F said:
Not always. Labour led in 11 out of 12 ICM polls in 2014, and also led 33/30 in the January ICM.isam said:
Haha that's because they always give them a good score!Plato said:Well, that's made my day ICM still leading with Tories.
Even if we assume last week's poll was an outlier, there's been a clear shift to the Conservatives with ICM.0 -
Casino:
It looks doable but incredibly fragile. Perhaps the debate is worth the risk. I have a gut feeling that the SNP stuff will gain traction; expect a grave and statesmanlike intervention from John Major.
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Hurst , as per others I quoted my personal opinion first , article in later post , a good article from him , opinion still to be changed personally.HurstLlama said:
Didn't actually bother reading Nelson's article then, Mr. G.. I would have thought you would have learned by now.malcolmg said:
Nelson is a complete tw**Tissue_Price said:Nice piece from Fraser Nelson on the SNP's antiquated campaigning:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/how-nicola-sturgeon-is-blundering-her-way-to-a-majority/0 -
ICM reverts to the mean.0
