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  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 664
    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    calum said:

    TACTICAL VOTING ALERT

    A Stirling Tory has finally come out and announced he will be voting tactically for SLAB.

    https://medium.com/@chrisdeerin/why-i-will-vote-labour-b058b17e042f

    This normal voter happens to be writing articles for the Daily Mail and even had the opportunity to discuss his devious plan with the great man himself, I mean David Cameron not Jim Murphy.

    To quote the Tory candidate in Gordon:

    "Colin Clark, the Tory candidate in the seat, accused Ms Jardine of "desperation" and said her tactics were motivated by the collapse of her core vote. "Nationally the Liberals are polling at four per cent," he said. "People who are voting tactically for them are under false pretences, their own core vote has disappeared. That's true in Gordon just like it is everywhere else. Tactical voting is the saviour of a party with no policies".

    In Stirling, the Tories are almost certainly in second place to the SNP. Nice of their supporters to abandon them for the already finished Anne Mcguire. Should boost the SNP majority a good chunk.
    I don't know it you're right, but odds of 20-1 are available on just this proposition...

    https://sports.spreadex.com/en-GB/spread-betting/Politics/UK-Politics/Constituencies-Q-S/p276382

    Buy CON Stirling @ 0.5

    SNP will win Stirling but the Tories may well come second.

    The Tories have a great poker hand but are slow playing it. The SNP have a total bluff but are representing a pair of queens at least. Labour has not looked at its cards yet, the Lib Dems are throwing in a good hand and UKIP has an Ace and a deuce. (This is a dangerous hand which normally goes wrong.)


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    ICM forced choice answer interesting.

    Con-LD-UKIP-DUP coalition 2% ahead of Lab-SNP.

    Can't see the Lib Dems going for that one lol.

    DUP AND UKIP !
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Yep, still a virtual dead heat. Start measuring up those curtains for No.10, Ed. I suggest a Saltire motif.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    TGOHF said:

    ICM turns bouncy.

    Maybe their sample was "a touch too Labour"?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    The post-debate polls show three leads each for the Conservatives and Labour, and one tie.

    Conservative 33.9%, Labour 33.7%, UKIP 13.7%.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    TGOHF said:

    ICM turns bouncy.


    Not quite as up and down as Ashcroft's whore's drawers
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Llama, really?

    Libya was embroiled in civil war with Gaddafi bragging about a genocide. The situation there now is terrible. There's no guarantee it wouldn't be as bad if the West hadn't gotten involved [ISIS may have taken over the opposition anyway].

    I agree with the basic plan of a processing centre in North Africa. Tunisia/Morocco could work.

    Well, Mr. D, is not the point of having armed forces that they be used to defend the nation's vital interests? If so then Cameron's Libyan adventure failed on just about every level.
    Ghaddafi no longer funding the IRA - tick
    Megrahi no longer in Uk jail - tick
    Disincentives for migrants to try and cross the med - tick

    Depends how you define failure.
    Ouch, and I thought I could be sarcastic!

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11549721/The-900-refugees-dead-in-the-Mediterranean-were-killed-by-British-government-policy.html
    It seems crazy to have a policy of not rescuing migrants from death due to creating a "pull factor" of immigration, while happily providing residency for the ones that manage to successfully cross. We are effectively saying to millions of victims of war "we won't do anything for you, unless you manage to make it through a highly dangerous cross-contient obstacle cross, and then we'll give you a better life than you've ever dreamed of".
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Pulpstar said:

    ICM forced choice answer interesting.

    Con-LD-UKIP-DUP coalition 2% ahead of Lab-SNP.

    Can't see the Lib Dems going for that one lol.

    DUP AND UKIP !
    'Non-Progressive Alliance'?!

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Dair said:

    But that message isn't getting across because Tory HQ is stupidly obsessed about the SNP and not demolishing UKIP - the only single thing that could still return them to power should they manage to knock them down to single figures.

    In my experience the single argument which is most effective in persuading UKIP/Con waverers to return to the Tories is the SNP one. So I think they are doing exactly the right thing in that respect, although it's effective even without the Tories doing anything.
    You don't get it.

    An anecdotal experience which has no polling evidence is not real. It is merely confirmation bias affecting your judgement.
    No, you don't get it. You have partly understood, and grossly over generalised, a point about medical research, and conflated opinion polling with scientific research which it actually isn't.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Well, that's made my day ICM still leading with Tories.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Presumably ICM now has corrected their gremlin and now has the Tories at a more plausible level in Scotland, thus bringing their overall poll back into line with everyone else - ie, Dave still losing the election, business as usual?
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited April 2015
    FalseFlag said:

    Anorak said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Anorak said:

    Mr. Llama, really?

    Libya was embroiled in civil war with Gaddafi bragging about a genocide. The situation there now is terrible. There's no guarantee it wouldn't be as bad if the West hadn't gotten involved [ISIS may have taken over the opposition anyway].

    I agree with the basic plan of a processing centre in North Africa. Tunisia/Morocco could work.

    There's a whole swathe of North Africa and the Middle East now, from Libya to Nigeria, to Somalia to South Sudan, to Yemen, to Palestine, to Syria and Iraq, that is practically ungovernable.
    Given the differences in ethnicity, history and underlying culture, it's weird that's happened at the same time. Almost like there was some factor they all have in common. All I can think of is lots of sunshine.
    Indeed, enemies of Israel.

    https://consortiumnews.com/2015/04/13/neocon-chaos-promotion-in-the-mideast/

    Israel has a long term strategy of fomenting religious and racial hatred in the region in order to weaken their opponents.

    http://www.monabaker.com/pMachine/more.php?id=A2298_0_1_0_M
    http://mycatbirdseat.com/2014/07/the-unfolding-of-yinons-zionist-plan-for-the-middle-east-the-crisis-in-iraq-and-the-centrality-of-the-national-interest-of-israel/
    My post was a little mousetrap but it seems to have caught a rabid honey badger.
    Nigeria is an enemy of Israel?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    ICM forced choice answer interesting.

    Con-LD-UKIP-DUP coalition 2% ahead of Lab-SNP.

    Can't see the Lib Dems going for that one lol.

    DUP AND UKIP !
    UKIP are going to have neither the seats nor the inclination for a coalition. Passive confidence, perhaps.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited April 2015
    Cyclefree said:

    On topic: thanks for the article on the previous thread. Very interesting.

    Re the SNP. Is there a risk of hubris, particularly among Scottish voters? Is Ms Sturgeon taking Scottish voters for granted? And could there be a swing back to SLAB, as a result? I'd be interested in the views of our Scottish posters.

    It took decades of SLAB taking voters for granted before their grip weakened, I suspect the SNP appearing overconfident and a little too expectant that the votes are already theirs will not prove problematic in the short term at the very least. And if they get results? The passion and loyalty of the recently converted can be hard to dent.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Presumably ICM now has corrected their gremlin and now has the Tories at a more plausible level in Scotland, thus bringing their overall poll back into line with everyone else - ie, Dave still losing the election, business as usual?

    We await the analysis of public/private sector workers ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    calum said:

    TACTICAL VOTING ALERT

    A Stirling Tory has finally come out and announced he will be voting tactically for SLAB.

    https://medium.com/@chrisdeerin/why-i-will-vote-labour-b058b17e042f

    This normal voter happens to be writing articles for the Daily Mail and even had the opportunity to discuss his devious plan with the great man himself, I mean David Cameron not Jim Murphy.

    To quote the Tory candidate in Gordon:

    "Colin Clark, the Tory candidate in the seat, accused Ms Jardine of "desperation" and said her tactics were motivated by the collapse of her core vote. "Nationally the Liberals are polling at four per cent," he said. "People who are voting tactically for them are under false pretences, their own core vote has disappeared. That's true in Gordon just like it is everywhere else. Tactical voting is the saviour of a party with no policies".

    In Stirling, the Tories are almost certainly in second place to the SNP. Nice of their supporters to abandon them for the already finished Anne Mcguire. Should boost the SNP majority a good chunk.
    I don't know it you're right, but odds of 20-1 are available on just this proposition...

    https://sports.spreadex.com/en-GB/spread-betting/Politics/UK-Politics/Constituencies-Q-S/p276382

    Buy CON Stirling @ 0.5

    SNP will win Stirling but the Tories may well come second.

    The Tories have a great poker hand but are slow playing it. The SNP have a total bluff but are representing a pair of queens at least. Labour has not looked at its cards yet, the Lib Dems are throwing in a good hand and UKIP has an Ace and a deuce. (This is a dangerous hand which normally goes wrong.)


    Great analogy on the hands.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Sean_F said:

    The Strategic Defence Review of 2010 was devoid of strategy.

    Yes, I am afraid that is a fair comment. Liam Fox didn't seem to have done the pre-election preparation that colleagues in other departments did.

    I think we will need a second go in the next parliament, assuming of course we have a government capable of doing anything other than give freebies to Nicola.
    If Cameron does get back in the 2015 defence review will be conducted on the same basis as the 2010 review. Why would it not be, the same people will be in charge. The defence secretary's role is only to adjudicate on how the Treasury imposed cuts will be divided up between the three services.
    Nonsense. The problem in 2010 was that, as Sean F observed, the strategic review didn't really start from the strategy. Luckily Liam Fox is no longer in charge, so there's every reason to be hopeful that a different Defence Secretary could do a better job.

    What that would mean for spending is a separate question - clearly, money is going to be tight. But the key thing is to get the strategic part of the review right, and then figure out the most cost-effective way of delivering it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516

    Presumably ICM now has corrected their gremlin and now has the Tories at a more plausible level in Scotland, thus bringing their overall poll back into line with everyone else - ie, Dave still losing the election, business as usual?

    Looking at that ICM I would say Cameron's in with a better chance of scraping in than I expected. Labour will drop a point or two on election day and that could just be the difference.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    edited April 2015
    Mr. Sykes, worth noting all polls have a certain fuzziness, and every so often one will just be plain wrong.

    Four consecutive Con leads (3, 3, 6, 2), although the direction of travel in the latest is not good for them. As I said below, surprised UKIP rose from 7 to 11.

    Edited extra bit: is this the penultimate ICM poll? Presumably they'll have one on the eve of the election.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Cyclefree said:

    On topic: thanks for the article on the previous thread. Very interesting.

    Re the SNP. Is there a risk of hubris, particularly among Scottish voters? Is Ms Sturgeon taking Scottish voters for granted? And could there be a swing back to SLAB, as a result? I'd be interested in the views of our Scottish posters.

    Nothing, but nothing is going to stop the political once in a lifetime tsunami that is enveloping Scotland- apart from the Shetlands and Orkney that hate the Scots more than the English.
    I've got ginger hair (sort of), does that count as your Scottish rep?

    BTW- What do you call a pretty girl in Scotland?
    A tourist.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    Presumably ICM now has corrected their gremlin and now has the Tories at a more plausible level in Scotland, thus bringing their overall poll back into line with everyone else - ie, Dave still losing the election, business as usual?

    That's four consecutive leads with ICM for the Conservatives. It's far too soon to be throwing in the towel. Would Margaret Thatcher or John Major just be giving up at this point?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    Conservatives losing The Big Mo with ICM!

    Lab lead next week?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited April 2015

    Pulpstar said:

    ICM forced choice answer interesting.

    Con-LD-UKIP-DUP coalition 2% ahead of Lab-SNP.

    Can't see the Lib Dems going for that one lol.

    DUP AND UKIP !
    UKIP are going to have neither the seats nor the inclination for a coalition. Passive confidence, perhaps.
    UKIP would be best off standing to one side (ala Farage at the end of the BBC debate) while the other parties besmirch themselves with the tawdry coalition bun-fight. Look purer than pure, look different, look principled, rise in the polls slowly but surely.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Will this small Con lead be acceptable to the New Statesman ?
  • SchardsSchards Posts: 210
    I think today will be as low as the tories get between now and the election. Today will register the last of the negativity from the Challangers Debate and, after today, the hammering home of the Labour/SNP stitch up will start having an effect. Meanwhile, UKIP will steadily dwindle as the fact they are not going to have a breakthrough becomes apparent.

    Would expect tories to be averaging 35/36 by 2nd/3rd May and poll 37/38 on the day
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    Mr. Sykes, worth noting all polls have a certain fuzziness, and every so often one will just be plain wrong.

    Four consecutive Con leads (3, 3, 6, 2), although the direction of travel in the latest is not good for them. As I said below, surprised UKIP rose from 7 to 11.

    The last one was a clear outlier. This is a decent (but not great) poll for the Conservatives.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Sean_F said:

    Presumably ICM now has corrected their gremlin and now has the Tories at a more plausible level in Scotland, thus bringing their overall poll back into line with everyone else - ie, Dave still losing the election, business as usual?

    That's four consecutive leads with ICM for the Conservatives. It's far too soon to be throwing in the towel. Would Margaret Thatcher or John Major just be giving up at this point?
    I think we can safely conclude that Bob Sykes is no Margaret Thatcher. Perhaps RAB Butler in 1940?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Pulpstar said:

    ICM forced choice answer interesting.

    Con-LD-UKIP-DUP coalition 2% ahead of Lab-SNP.

    Can't see the Lib Dems going for that one lol.

    DUP AND UKIP !
    UKIP are going to have neither the seats nor the inclination for a coalition. Passive confidence, perhaps.
    The pollsters asking people about coalitions which are vanishingly unlikely ;)
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited April 2015
    JEO said:

    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Llama, really?

    Libya was embroiled in civil war with Gaddafi bragging about a genocide. The situation there now is terrible. There's no guarantee it wouldn't be as bad if the West hadn't gotten involved [ISIS may have taken over the opposition anyway].

    I agree with the basic plan of a processing centre in North Africa. Tunisia/Morocco could work.

    Well, Mr. D, is not the point of having armed forces that they be used to defend the nation's vital interests? If so then Cameron's Libyan adventure failed on just about every level.
    Ghaddafi no longer funding the IRA - tick
    Megrahi no longer in Uk jail - tick
    Disincentives for migrants to try and cross the med - tick

    Depends how you define failure.
    Ouch, and I thought I could be sarcastic!

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11549721/The-900-refugees-dead-in-the-Mediterranean-were-killed-by-British-government-policy.html
    It seems crazy to have a policy of not rescuing migrants from death due to creating a "pull factor" of immigration, while happily providing residency for the ones that manage to successfully cross. We are effectively saying to millions of victims of war "we won't do anything for you, unless you manage to make it through a highly dangerous cross-contient obstacle cross, and then we'll give you a better life than you've ever dreamed of".
    Well, exactly. The logic of Dan's position is that we should send ferries over to North Africa to pick up would-be migrants.

    It might be unpleasant to defend your borders, or to rely on the sea doing that for you, but I think it's pretty clearly what people want.

    Obviously - and this should go without saying, but DH has elided his argument to make it necessary that I do - no-one wants anyone to die.
  • Some people are getting far too gaylord ponceyboots over the poll.

    Had you have told PBers, that their party would have led with ICM in every poll in 2015, they'd have snapped your hand off.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505
    Nelson is a complete tw**
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Pulpstar said:

    ICM forced choice answer interesting.

    Con-LD-UKIP-DUP coalition 2% ahead of Lab-SNP.

    Can't see the Lib Dems going for that one lol.

    DUP AND UKIP !
    UKIP are going to have neither the seats nor the inclination for a coalition. Passive confidence, perhaps.
    UKIP would be best off standing to one side (ala Farage at the end of the BBC debate) while the other parties besmirch themselves with the tawdry coalition bun-fight. Look purer than pure, look different, look principled, rise in the polls slowly but surely.
    Absolutely. With new female leadership (cf. Sturgeon) they could do very well in the election of February 2016.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328
    edited April 2015
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic: thanks for the article on the previous thread. Very interesting.

    Re the SNP. Is there a risk of hubris, particularly among Scottish voters? Is Ms Sturgeon taking Scottish voters for granted? And could there be a swing back to SLAB, as a result? I'd be interested in the views of our Scottish posters.

    It took decades of SLAB taking voters for granted before their grip weakened, I suspect the SNP appearing overconfident and a little too expectant that the votes are already theirs will not prove problematic in the short term at the very least. And if they get results? The passion and loyalty of the recently converted can be hard to dent.
    Thank you. To me - but I am in London - they sound a touch hubristic. I wonder, therefore, whether the SLAB wipeout will be as bad as forecast. If a party were so obviously behaving as if they were guaranteed my vote I'd be tempted to give them a bloody nose.

    Purely anecdotal but I was talking to a family member who lives in another marginal London constituency and he commented - and he is pretty small "c" conservative and old-fashioned (in the best sense) - that EdM was growing on him (as a person) and he thought the Tory campaign was dire. He's going to some hustings in the constituency later this week.



  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Some people are getting far too gaylord ponceyboots over the poll.

    Had you have told PBers, that their party would have led with ICM in every poll in 2015, they'd have snapped your hand off.

    Are the guts of the poll up yet ?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    malcolmg said:

    Nelson is a complete tw**
    Have you even read the article, you halfbaked turnip? He's paying you a compliment.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387

    Some people are getting far too gaylord ponceyboots over the poll.

    Had you have told PBers, that their party would have led with ICM in every poll in 2015, they'd have snapped your hand off.

    34/32 or more or less "neck and neck" or EICIPM.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Sean_F said:

    Presumably ICM now has corrected their gremlin and now has the Tories at a more plausible level in Scotland, thus bringing their overall poll back into line with everyone else - ie, Dave still losing the election, business as usual?

    That's four consecutive leads with ICM for the Conservatives. It's far too soon to be throwing in the towel. Would Margaret Thatcher or John Major just be giving up at this point?
    No, but we're led by David Cameron.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    This ICM looks about right. A 2% Con lead is my current gut-feel lead for polling day. Not enough of course.

    Also shows the only hope Cameron has left is to massively squeeze the Kippers.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    malcolmg said:

    Nelson is a complete tw**

    Have you read the article, Malcolm? I think you will be pleasantly surprised.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Cyclefree said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Sean_F said:

    Neil said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Anorak said:

    Mr. Llama, really?

    Libya was embroiled in civil war with Gaddafi bragging about a genocide. The situation there now is terrible. There's no guarantee it wouldn't be as bad if the West hadn't gotten involved [ISIS may have taken over the opposition anyway].

    I agree with the basic plan of a processing centre in North Africa. Tunisia/Morocco could work.

    There's a whole swathe of North Africa and the Middle East now, from Libya to Nigeria, to Somalia to South Sudan, to Yemen, to Palestine, to Syria and Iraq, that is practically ungovernable.
    Given the differences in ethnicity, history and underlying culture, it's weird that's happened at the same time. Almost like there was some factor they all have in common. All I can think of is lots of sunshine.
    Indeed, enemies of Israel.

    https://consortiumnews.com/2015/04/13/neocon-chaos-promotion-in-the-mideast/

    Israel has a long term strategy of fomenting religious and racial hatred in the region in order to weaken their opponents.

    http://www.monabaker.com/pMachine/more.php?id=A2298_0_1_0_M
    http://mycatbirdseat.com/2014/07/the-unfolding-of-yinons-zionist-plan-for-the-middle-east-the-crisis-in-iraq-and-the-centrality-of-the-national-interest-of-israel/
    Dammit, it's so obvious now that you point it out. Why do I continue to forget that it's always the fault of the Jews?
    These Jews are damned cunning, aren't they?
    Can you point to anything that says this hasn't been and isn't Israel's foreign policy?
    Can you tell me how to prove a negative?

    You can't then?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2015
    So last week's was an outlier, but obviously the ICM methodology is still giving the Tories a consistent lead. Only time will tell if the methodology is actually relevant to these times. I suspect them re-assigning UKIP voters back to the Tories, simply because they voted Tory last time, is a wrong assumption. But I fear their downweighting of Labour because of how uncertain they are to vote might be accurate.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    JohnO said:

    Sean_F said:

    Presumably ICM now has corrected their gremlin and now has the Tories at a more plausible level in Scotland, thus bringing their overall poll back into line with everyone else - ie, Dave still losing the election, business as usual?

    That's four consecutive leads with ICM for the Conservatives. It's far too soon to be throwing in the towel. Would Margaret Thatcher or John Major just be giving up at this point?
    I think we can safely conclude that Bob Sykes is no Margaret Thatcher. Perhaps RAB Butler in 1940?
    I think the correct historical analogy for the Conservatives' current position is that of Wellington's forces about half way through the Battle of Waterloo. It could still go in either direction.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS **** BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS ****

    Had a very pleasant, amusing and informative chat over breakfast with a senior Conservative source that has previously provided very accurate informative and accurate

    The sausages, eggs, bacon and black pudding were splendid. :smile:

    And now for less important news .....

    Here are the summary highlights and I'll leave the "juicy nugget" until the end .... no scrolling down to the end !!

    Conservative - The campaign team and fellow travellers essentially fall into three camps - I'm dubbing them the Dad's Army team.

    The first are the Private Frazer grouping - "We're all doomed !!" - Their assessment is that the campaign has hitter the buffers, is gaining little traction and they have underestimated Miliband and that the Crosby strategy is failing to deliver. They represent a small but slowly growing group.

    The second group, including the PM, are the Sgt Wilson team - nothing much ruffles them, they take events as they see them and are fairly laid back. They believe all will work out in the end. This is the largest group

    The last group are the Cpl Jones group. "Don't Panic" - They represent a significant strand that has the will for the fight but gets temporarily flustered when the polls and other events dent the overall plan.

    Overall the Blue team feel that they still have an outside shot of a small majority but another Coalition is most likely. Their own internal polling is marginally better than the norm. They believe they are performing better in all areas in England except most of Greater London. They are disappointed that some of their signature policies such as right to buy appear not to have gained much traction.

    The PM remains upbeat, energetic and appropriately optimistic of the win. Most of the senior figures in the campaign are genuinely of the same mind.

    Con-Lab .. Expecting modest losses and likely one or two gains - one somewhat under the radar. Net approx 20 losses.

    Con-LibDem .. Six gains considered "in the bag". Another ten TCTC.

    Con-UKIP. Seeing continued seepage back from Kippers. Clacton possibly only UKIP seat. Reckless struggling and Farage no shoe-in. Likely Kippers will rack up a few dozen good second places.

    Wales - As you were.

    Scotland - Struggling against the SNP tide. Might have zero or two seats. Expecting Labour to lose 45+ seats to SNP.

    ............................................................................

    And the best till last ....

    There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.

    The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,031

    Mr. Rentool, maintaining the capacity of this country to defend its territories and interests matters far more than throwing money around willy-nilly. Acute aid in response to a specific crisis (disease, famine, etc) is a very good thing. Chronic aid, hooking up nations to a steady drip of money, doesn't bloody work.

    If we actually want Africa to get richer we need to reduce trade barriers, encourage business and use growth to lift the poor from their poverty (as has happened in China and India).

    Well said Mr Dancer - International aid is basically global welfare, at best it keeps the world's poor, poor and dependent. At worst it keep's the world's dictators and despots in large houses and nice cars.

    The single biggest thing we could do to help Africa is to reform the CAP to allow them to sell us their crops. It's the famous difference between giving a man a fish and teaching him how to fish.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Sean_F said:

    The Strategic Defence Review of 2010 was devoid of strategy.

    Yes, I am afraid that is a fair comment. Liam Fox didn't seem to have done the pre-election preparation that colleagues in other departments did.

    I think we will need a second go in the next parliament, assuming of course we have a government capable of doing anything other than give freebies to Nicola.
    If Cameron does get back in the 2015 defence review will be conducted on the same basis as the 2010 review. Why would it not be, the same people will be in charge. The defence secretary's role is only to adjudicate on how the Treasury imposed cuts will be divided up between the three services.
    Nonsense. The problem in 2010 was that, as Sean F observed, the strategic review didn't really start from the strategy. Luckily Liam Fox is no longer in charge, so there's every reason to be hopeful that a different Defence Secretary could do a better job.

    What that would mean for spending is a separate question - clearly, money is going to be tight. But the key thing is to get the strategic part of the review right, and then figure out the most cost-effective way of delivering it.
    Why did the last defence review not start with strategy? Why would the next one if Cameron and Osborn are still in charge?
  • Many thanks to Sunny Jim and his 125/1 each way tip, came third.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    JackW said:

    BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS **** BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS ****

    There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.

    The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.

    Well that would be a surprise. But very interesting indeed. Thank you young man.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Plato said:

    Well, that's made my day ICM still leading with Tories.

    Haha that's because they always give them a good score!

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Many thanks to Sunny Jim and his 125/1 each way tip, came third.

    I hope you had the e/w double with his other tip...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    My guess is that 34/32 would leave the Conservatives on c.290 seats.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    malcolmg said:

    Nelson is a complete tw**
    Didn't actually bother reading Nelson's article then, Mr. G.. I would have thought you would have learned by now.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited April 2015

    This ICM looks about right. A 2% Con lead is my current gut-feel lead for polling day. Not enough of course.

    Also shows the only hope Cameron has left is to massively squeeze the Kippers.

    And the only thing left to do,is a early EU referendum.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    @JackW. Wow. Cameron thinks a direct 1:1 debate is worth the risk?

    It must be bad. But it may be worth it given the polls.
  • JPJ2JPJ2 Posts: 380
    Tyson

    "apart from the Shetlands and Orkney that hate the Scots more than the English"

    Is that why the SNP topped the List/Party vote in Orkney in Holyrood 2011 and came a close second in Shetland.

    Not predicting an SNP gain in Orkney and Shetland, but you never know.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    JackW said:



    And the best till last ....

    There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.

    That would be pretty amusing to see. How Cameron would spin such late acceptance I do not know, particularly since it will if the situation 'remains static' as you put it, suggesting if we continue to see no changes the leadership are expecting to lose and to need to change things up.

    Much obliged for the information.
  • Many thanks to Sunny Jim and his 125/1 each way tip, came third.

    I hope you had the e/w double with his other tip...
    As two singles
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Sean_F said:

    My guess is that 34/32 would leave the Conservatives on c.290 seats.

    That's probably the minimum they need to even make another Con/LD coalition viable (assuming the LibDems would be up for a whole new round of bloodletting).
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    JackW said:

    BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS **** BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS ****

    And the best till last ....

    There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.

    The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.

    Changing tack on the debates would leave Cameron looking ridiculous, IMO.

    He's made his choice (not to go head to head) now he has to stick with it.

    Hope the black pudding doesn't cause any blockages to Jack's ARSE...

  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    An interesting image for Tory and UKIP leaflets:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CDCYB-sWAAAQpwZ.jpg
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Why did the last defence review not start with strategy? Why would the next one if Cameron and Osborn are still in charge?

    Because Cameron's style is very much to delegate. In many cases - welfare, education - that has proven a dramatic success. In a few cases, most notably defence in 2010, the minister given the delegated responsibility didn't do a good job.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505
    PeterC said:

    A brilliant and devastating piece of irony.
    It was funny , which is not like him.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Many thanks to Sunny Jim and his 125/1 each way tip, came third.

    I hope you had the e/w double with his other tip...
    As two singles
    I missed that post...

    Not that I can get on with Stan or James anyway.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    So that 39% Tory poll was the exception. That big 5% drop by the Tories is just within the bounds of noise. Wonder why it's so noisy.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091



    Because Cameron's style is very much to delegate. In many cases - welfare, education - that has proven a dramatic success.

    Two areas where, according to the chart, Labour lead the Tories. That's dramatic success??
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    JackW said:

    And the best till last ....

    There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.

    The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.

    "Including him risks another Cleggasm"

    Cannot see that happening. Last time it was because no one wanted Brown, but the Tories were still hated, hence "how about Clegg" suddenly became real.

    Given the last 5 years, this is not an option.

  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    chestnut said:

    Ed Miliband is boosted today by an exclusive poll showing Labour ahead of the Conservatives on four of the top six election issues.

    In a blow to David Cameron, both Labour and Ukip are ahead of the Conservatives on immigration and asylum — an issue that senior Tories hoped would play to their favour — according to new research by Ipsos MORI.

    A league table of public priorities puts the NHS first, followed by the economy, education, immigration, taxation and benefits.

    http://bit.ly/1D5Ycqi

    Charts and tables here

    http://bit.ly/1bk1H5M
    Unweighted sample

    Public sector: 211
    Private Sector: 290

    I know they weight, but 42% of workers in the raw sample are public sector workers?

    More nit picking because the Tories aren't doing a good enough job at convincing people to vote for them?
    You are the one nit picking. How is this sample meant to be representative. I don't know how the election will turn out but the polls seem to be making it up as they go along.
    I just think people wading through the sub samples looking for weighting problems to explain why "their" party is where it is looks a bit desperate?

    And I used to say the same back around 2008-2010 when Labour supporters would do the same (remember all the criticism we hard from Livingstone about YouGov during the 2008 Mayoral election?)
    You don't think that ignoring the facts is just the same as you claim?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    SunnyJim said:

    Betting Post:

    1420 Kempton Loukhaar 125-1 (SJ)

    1530 Kempton Softly She Treads 40-1 (generally)

    Third place for Loukhaar. Managed to get on at 100 fixed. SP 33.

    Shame the £3400 double for a £1 is gone.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505



    ""My view on the SNP "threat" is that it resonates well in Surrey Heath but is barely an issue anywhere else. Indeed, the reception Sturgeon is getting is probably undermining every single Sturgeon with Ed in pocket billboard poster appearing in every northern working class Tory held marginal. I mentioned the one on the main st in Colne (Pendle) last week - I think many in Colne are looking at that as a prospectus and thinking "I quite like the sound of that, how do I vote for her?"

    That's why the Tory focus on the SNP is going so catastrophically, calamitously wrong.

    Why can only a handful of us see this??""


    There is a strange love affair between some of the English and the SNP which is hard to fathom. The SNP are highly political and only look after themselves. If you are a Scot who does not agree with them then you are ostracised at every junction. If something goes wrong then it is always the fault of the b...dy English.

    What amazes me is that it is only the Tories who have the guts to take them head on whilst Labour seem to think they can be their friends. I had a Scottish Labour leaflet today which attacked the Tories / Coalition in 4 sections while ignored the SNP. The only way that Labour will hold their seat is convincing the 20% who support Lib Dems / Tories to help them. Guess what the result of our seat will be.

    The Tory campaign is weak but I see their attack on the SNP as the only area where they actually are showing strength. Much better than trying to bribe the electorate with their own money.


    LOL, how can anyone be so out of touch with reality and claim to actually live in Scotland
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,228
    LibDem + DUP = Fifty shades of Orange
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    I think for the final 18 days or whatever it is of the election I shall conduct a form of monitoring entitled SPUDS (Sam's Polling Ups & Downs)

    This will focus on the changes from the previous poll , and result in a positive or negative figure at the end of each day, giving a clear indication of the way the wind is blowing on any given day

    For instance, so far today (2 polls) we have

    Con -6
    Lab -1
    UKIP +5
    LD +2
    Green -2

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    JackW said:

    BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS **** BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS ****

    The first are the Private Frazer grouping - "We're all doomed !!" - Their assessment is that the campaign has hitter the buffers, is gaining little traction and they have underestimated Miliband and that the Crosby strategy is failing to deliver. They represent a small but slowly growing group.

    The second group, including the PM, are the Sgt Wilson team - nothing much ruffles them, they take events as they see them and are fairly laid back. They believe all will work out in the end. This is the largest group

    The last group are the Cpl Jones group. "Don't Panic" - They represent a significant strand that has the will for the fight but gets temporarily flustered when the polls and other events dent the overall plan.

    Overall the Blue team feel that they still have an outside shot of a small majority but another Coalition is most likely. Their own internal polling is marginally better than the norm. They believe they are performing better in all areas in England except most of Greater London. They are disappointed that some of their signature policies such as right to buy appear not to have gained much traction.

    The PM remains upbeat, energetic and appropriately optimistic of the win. Most of the senior figures in the campaign are genuinely of the same mind.

    Con-Lab .. Expecting modest losses and likely one or two gains - one somewhat under the radar. Net approx 20 losses.

    Con-LibDem .. Six gains considered "in the bag". Another ten TCTC.

    Con-UKIP. Seeing continued seepage back from Kippers. Clacton possibly only UKIP seat. Reckless struggling and Farage no shoe-in. Likely Kippers will rack up a few dozen good second places.

    Wales - As you were.

    Scotland - Struggling against the SNP tide. Might have zero or two seats. Expecting Labour to lose 45+ seats to SNP.

    ............................................................................

    And the best till last ....

    There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.

    The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.

    Generally looks about right. But even on those optimistic CCO figures that only gets them to about 292-296 seats. Amusing that CCO expect Labour to lose more seats in Scotland than they actually have. Does Murphy count as two?

    Love the 'under the radar' gain. Birmingham Northfield, please.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    So level pegging in phone polls also.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,031

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    calum said:

    TACTICAL VOTING ALERT

    A Stirling Tory has finally come out and announced he will be voting tactically for SLAB.

    https://medium.com/@chrisdeerin/why-i-will-vote-labour-b058b17e042f

    This normal voter happens to be writing articles for the Daily Mail and even had the opportunity to discuss his devious plan with the great man himself, I mean David Cameron not Jim Murphy.

    To quote the Tory candidate in Gordon:

    "Colin Clark, the Tory candidate in the seat, accused Ms Jardine of "desperation" and said her tactics were motivated by the collapse of her core vote. "Nationally the Liberals are polling at four per cent," he said. "People who are voting tactically for them are under false pretences, their own core vote has disappeared. That's true in Gordon just like it is everywhere else. Tactical voting is the saviour of a party with no policies".

    In Stirling, the Tories are almost certainly in second place to the SNP. Nice of their supporters to abandon them for the already finished Anne Mcguire. Should boost the SNP majority a good chunk.
    I don't know it you're right, but odds of 20-1 are available on just this proposition...

    https://sports.spreadex.com/en-GB/spread-betting/Politics/UK-Politics/Constituencies-Q-S/p276382

    Buy CON Stirling @ 0.5

    SNP will win Stirling but the Tories may well come second.

    The Tories have a great poker hand but are slow playing it. The SNP have a total bluff but are representing a pair of queens at least. Labour has not looked at its cards yet, the Lib Dems are throwing in a good hand and UKIP has an Ace and a deuce. (This is a dangerous hand which normally goes wrong.)


    Very good ;)

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Sean_F said:

    The post-debate polls show three leads each for the Conservatives and Labour, and one tie.

    Conservative 33.9%, Labour 33.7%, UKIP 13.7%.

    Yet if you read the thread header you'd think everything was bad for the blues and hunky dory for the reds. I'm surprised the teachers' YG isn't being trumpeted as well.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    Dropping four points in a week....this election is getting hard to call.

    All we can say now is that ICM are all over the place and probably should be ignored.

    YouGov have the experience and have always been close to the actual result. What's more they have done hundreds more polls than anyone else so their cross referencing should be spot on.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516

    LibDem + DUP = Fifty shades of Orange

    The future's bright
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Totally Off Thread - but a good command of logic may be needed for success at PB

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/11549731/Quiz-How-logical-are-you.html
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Roger said:

    Dropping four points in a week....this election is getting hard to call.

    All we can say now is that ICM are all over the place and probably should be ignored.

    YouGov have the experience and have always been close to the actual result. What's more they have done hundreds more polls than anyone else so their cross referencing should be spot on.

    Polls having normal volatility means the polling company is reporting honestly. The ones I distrust are those that never have outliers, because the pollster will likely be selectively holding some back.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Why did the last defence review not start with strategy? Why would the next one if Cameron and Osborn are still in charge?

    Because Cameron's style is very much to delegate. In many cases - welfare, education - that has proven a dramatic success. In a few cases, most notably defence in 2010, the minister given the delegated responsibility didn't do a good job.
    So cutting defence spending was actually a MoD decision?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505
    Cyclefree said:

    On topic: thanks for the article on the previous thread. Very interesting.

    Re the SNP. Is there a risk of hubris, particularly among Scottish voters? Is Ms Sturgeon taking Scottish voters for granted? And could there be a swing back to SLAB, as a result? I'd be interested in the views of our Scottish posters.

    Not a chance of it , will be few changing their minds if any.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited April 2015
    Softly she treads is available at 33-1 still, the place price on Betfair is 3-1, so it's value still.

    Shape of the race is a value punter's wet dream/bookie's nightmare tbh.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    @JackW. Wow. Cameron thinks a direct 1:1 debate is worth the risk?

    It must be bad. But it may be worth it given the polls.

    This is a strategy that some, and certainly nothing like a majority, are preparing for.
    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS **** BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS ****

    And the best till last ....

    There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.

    The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.

    Changing tack on the debates would leave Cameron looking ridiculous, IMO.

    He's made his choice (not to go head to head) now he has to stick with it.

    Hope the black pudding doesn't cause any blockages to Jack's ARSE...

    If the circumstance change and demand it's strange how firm positions become somewhat looser. :smile:

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Roger said:

    All we can say now is that ICM are all over the place and probably should be ignored

    They had an outlier. Everyone said it was an outlier at the time.

    Outliers happen, and they will always happen*. Simple mathematics.

    [*ok, pendants, there's a vanishingly small chance they will never happen again in our lifetimes]
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    JackW said:

    @JackW. Wow. Cameron thinks a direct 1:1 debate is worth the risk?

    It must be bad. But it may be worth it given the polls.

    This is a strategy that some, and certainly nothing like a majority, are preparing for.
    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS **** BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS ****

    And the best till last ....

    There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.

    The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.

    Changing tack on the debates would leave Cameron looking ridiculous, IMO.

    He's made his choice (not to go head to head) now he has to stick with it.

    Hope the black pudding doesn't cause any blockages to Jack's ARSE...

    If the circumstance change and demand it's strange how firm positions become somewhat looser. :smile:

    You mean Ed Miliband MIGHT be Prime Minister?

    Bob Sykes becomes my hero.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    isam said:

    Plato said:

    Well, that's made my day ICM still leading with Tories.

    Haha that's because they always give them a good score!

    Not always. Labour led in 11 out of 12 ICM polls in 2014, and also led 33/30 in the January ICM.

    Even if we assume last week's poll was an outlier, there's been a clear shift to the Conservatives with ICM.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    malcolmg said:



    ""My view on the SNP "threat" is that it resonates well in Surrey Heath but is barely an issue anywhere else. Indeed, the reception Sturgeon is getting is probably undermining every single Sturgeon with Ed in pocket billboard poster appearing in every northern working class Tory held marginal. I mentioned the one on the main st in Colne (Pendle) last week - I think many in Colne are looking at that as a prospectus and thinking "I quite like the sound of that, how do I vote for her?"

    That's why the Tory focus on the SNP is going so catastrophically, calamitously wrong.

    Why can only a handful of us see this??""


    There is a strange love affair between some of the English and the SNP which is hard to fathom. The SNP are highly political and only look after themselves. If you are a Scot who does not agree with them then you are ostracised at every junction. If something goes wrong then it is always the fault of the b...dy English.

    What amazes me is that it is only the Tories who have the guts to take them head on whilst Labour seem to think they can be their friends. I had a Scottish Labour leaflet today which attacked the Tories / Coalition in 4 sections while ignored the SNP. The only way that Labour will hold their seat is convincing the 20% who support Lib Dems / Tories to help them. Guess what the result of our seat will be.

    The Tory campaign is weak but I see their attack on the SNP as the only area where they actually are showing strength. Much better than trying to bribe the electorate with their own money.


    LOL, how can anyone be so out of touch with reality and claim to actually live in Scotland
    Stuart Dickson came close.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    SeanT said:

    JackW said:

    BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS **** BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS ****


    And the best till last ....

    There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.

    The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.

    lol. Some of us have been predicting this for about a year, and didn't need a fry-up with Ossie to discern the irresistible logic. Cameron is the underdog: underdogs need debates.
    You've been predicting every possible option every time a new poll springs up. Consistency isn't your strong point. :wink:

  • ICM the gold standard? They're as clueless as the rest.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505

    malcolmg said:

    Nelson is a complete tw**
    Have you even read the article, you halfbaked turnip? He's paying you a compliment.
    I was merely commenting on him. If you look I did read and comment on the article elsewhere, surprisingly decent for him , not normal and must be down to his excitement at his Auntie meeting Alex and Nicola at the weekend. He is however still a complete tw**.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Why did the last defence review not start with strategy? Why would the next one if Cameron and Osborn are still in charge?

    Because Cameron's style is very much to delegate. In many cases - welfare, education - that has proven a dramatic success. In a few cases, most notably defence in 2010, the minister given the delegated responsibility didn't do a good job.
    So cutting defence spending was actually a MoD decision?
    You seem to have a Gordon-Brown-like view that spending more is by definition a Good Thing. My point - which I'd thought I'd made clearly enough - was to agree with Sean F that the strategic review didn't do a good job in reviewing strategy. That was what was wrong with it, not the spending total per se. I believe that taxpayers' money should be spent to achieve objectives, not the other way round, from which it follows that you need to do a really thorough job in assessing those objectives. That is what I think needs to be revisited next time.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    Roger said:

    Dropping four points in a week....this election is getting hard to call.

    All we can say now is that ICM are all over the place and probably should be ignored.

    YouGov have the experience and have always been close to the actual result. What's more they have done hundreds more polls than anyone else so their cross referencing should be spot on.

    One should expect to see occasional outliers, and a reasonable amount of movement, if the pollster is doing their job properly.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Why are people relying on someone else to tip them up each way snides?

    All you need is oddschecker, Betfair, and a brain
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,049
    edited April 2015
    Dair said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Betting Post:

    1420 Kempton Loukhaar 125-1 (SJ)

    1530 Kempton Softly She Treads 40-1 (generally)

    Third place for Loukhaar. Managed to get on at 100 fixed. SP 33.

    Shame the £3400 double for a £1 is gone.
    @SunnyJim thanks managed to get on also much appreciated.

    And now we wait....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505
    PeterC said:

    malcolmg said:

    Nelson is a complete tw**

    Have you read the article, Malcolm? I think you will be pleasantly surprised.
    Peter I did but gave my opinion of him first and then on the article in another post.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    Plato said:

    Well, that's made my day ICM still leading with Tories.

    Haha that's because they always give them a good score!

    Not always. Labour led in 11 out of 12 ICM polls in 2014, and also led 33/30 in the January ICM.

    Even if we assume last week's poll was an outlier, there's been a clear shift to the Conservatives with ICM.
    My guess is that on the day the Tories will lead by around 5% (36-31) with the SNP doing exceptionally well. What would be the likley composition of the Commons?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    Plato said:

    Well, that's made my day ICM still leading with Tories.

    Haha that's because they always give them a good score!

    Not always. Labour led in 11 out of 12 ICM polls in 2014, and also led 33/30 in the January ICM.

    Even if we assume last week's poll was an outlier, there's been a clear shift to the Conservatives with ICM.
    Yeah, was a joke Sean
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited April 2015
    Casino:


    It looks doable but incredibly fragile. Perhaps the debate is worth the risk. I have a gut feeling that the SNP stuff will gain traction; expect a grave and statesmanlike intervention from John Major.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505

    malcolmg said:

    Nelson is a complete tw**
    Didn't actually bother reading Nelson's article then, Mr. G.. I would have thought you would have learned by now.
    Hurst , as per others I quoted my personal opinion first , article in later post , a good article from him , opinion still to be changed personally.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    ICM reverts to the mean.
This discussion has been closed.