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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Monday afternoon rolling polling blog
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Monday afternoon rolling polling blog
Mondays are always a big day polling day. First off was Populus with a slight up-tick for LAB. This afternoon we’ll have ICM, which last week had a 6% CON lead, and Ashcroft. This evening there will be the daily YouGov.
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In a blow to David Cameron, both Labour and Ukip are ahead of the Conservatives on immigration and asylum — an issue that senior Tories hoped would play to their favour — according to new research by Ipsos MORI.
A league table of public priorities puts the NHS first, followed by the economy, education, immigration, taxation and benefits.
http://bit.ly/1D5Ycqi
http://youtu.be/KgwokA8AG78
http://bit.ly/1bk1H5M
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/04/ashcroft-adds-to-labour-and-liberal-democrat-woes/
Of particular note (for me anyway):
"even after people are asked how they will vote in their particular constituency, a form of wording that clearly increases the estimated Liberal Democrat vote in the four constituencies they are defending, the Liberal Democrat vote is down on average by 15 points, exactly in line with the 15 point drop in the party’s Scotland-wide share of the vote. There is no sign here of the local popularity of the party’s MPs enabling them to stem the outgoing tide.
We should not be surprised. There are plenty of constituencies in Scotland where the party won less than 15% of the vote in 2010, and where its vote thus cannot possibly decline by as much as 15 points. The three Labour seats in which Ashcroft polled all fall into that category and in these the average decline in the party’s vote according to Ashcroft is just seven points. The Liberal Democrats must be losing votes more heavily in some places where they were previously stronger. All that the local popularity of their incumbent MPs seems to be doing is counterbalancing this inevitable pattern."
This was a deduction that I made last year, so it's really satisfying to see that it seems to be coming true.
What Mr Man are you?! Is this what happens to the LibDems in Coalition?
I love these Amazon reviews > amazon.co.uk/review/R24HIHKBR9DYCU
'Are you thinking what we are thinking' man must be crying into his Fosters
Public sector: 211
Private Sector: 290
I know they weight, but 42% of workers in the raw sample are public sector workers?
SNP might pick up from non voters, Lab and Con, and particularly LDs from 2010 DKs swinging back to their own party.
But broadly speaking the result may be very like this - since this is a poll of people who voted last time so the whole non voters issue is stripped out.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/how-nicola-sturgeon-is-blundering-her-way-to-a-majority/
It could be greater for Ed.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/politics/9501512/the-tories-have-survived-a-near-death-experience-but-theyre-not-home-yet/
"There are now just 20-odd days left until polling day. In a sign that both sides expect this election to go to the wire, they have both kept policies back from their manifestos to boost the last few days of the campaign.
The Conservatives will concentrate on two main themes in these final weeks. The first is tax. The party leadership believes that voters haven’t yet realised how sizeable the income-tax cuts the party is offering are. The second is the prospect of the SNP propping up a Labour government. The Conservatives believe that the fear of what this would mean will drive English voters to them in the final furlong of this race.
But the Conservatives also need to find a way to show that David Cameron actually wants to do the top job. At the moment, this is not coming across. According to one of those who knows him best, part of the problem is actually how nervous he is about losing. This fear is constraining his -performances.
The Conservatives, not least Cameron himself, are fond of playing up the parallels between this campaign and that of 1992. One wonders if Cameron might be well served by taking another leaf out of that campaign’s strategy and getting on his soapbox, engaging with the voters as John Major did and proving that he is not too posh to push."
What Cameron hasn't been able to do in office is to build upon and grow the Conservative brand. That was probably his only chance from the very moment the coalition was formed.
This people smuggling is becoming more and more horrific... 21st century slave ships, and the same fate awaits those who make it except their owners are the state not individuals
Good point.
Utterly unthinkable that with 47% backing centre right / right parties, we are going to be governed by a hapless weak incompetent who only ever wanted to force his brother to include him in the Shadow Cabinet and yet becomes accidental Prime Minister on the back of c34% of the vote, and will have to govern in hock to the unspeakable demands of Scottish Nationalists who are hell-bent on destroying (and indeed may already have destroyed) his party.
But it's happening. It's real. It's a classic example of a car crash happening in slow motion, and there's not a thing we can do about it when we have loonies on the Left salivating at the prospect of a hard left SNP forcing hardcore socialism on the rest of us, and loonies on the Right preventing a reasonable if unremarkable PM from winning a safety first second term that around 40% of the country would probably be happy with because they don't think he's Daily Telegraph enough and won't give them the referendum on the EU that only he can deliver to them.
Call me crazy, but I'm tempted of betting on Lab Most Votes/Most Seats. I suspect they will fall slightly short on both counts, but with the polls as they are it surely isn't that far from a toss-up on most votes. You can get 4/1 on Lab Most Votes and Seats, which seems a bit generous.
DYOR
JackW - does this tie in with your feedback?
London, they (the Conservatives) are under pressure from Labour, who have six targets (they will also win a couple from the Liberals). Although there are signs that poorer areas are susceptible to the politics of envy, the Tories are fighting hard on the ground, and there have been some cheerful reports. Miliband's stance on Palestine has done him no favours in Hendon, the most marginal Tory seat: majority 106. Sixty-nine per cent of British Jews vote Conservative anyway. But it will indeed require a late swing if the Tories are to avoid losses, though there are also likely to make a couple of gains from the Liberals in South-West London.
The West Country. Local Tories are hopeful, as is Central Office. There is the prospect of at least 6 gains.
The West Midlands. Jaguar/Landrover is producing a feel-good factor among an electorate which often votes with its wallet. The Tories are hoping for two or three gains.
The East Midlands and Derbyshire. There is less of an uplift from Rolls-Royce's order-book, probably because of recent job losses. But the Tories believe that they are at least holding their own marginals. Not so the coastal preserves of Ukip.
Lancashire. Local Tories are bullish: Cental Office, cautious. But there is the hope of avoiding net losses.
Yorkshire. A confused picture emerges, with results dependent on local factors.
Wales. Partly because of the NHS scandal, the local Tories believe that they can make gains. It is useful to note that Plaid Cymru has two MPs
Those are the principal battle-grounds, and there is no suggestion of a Labour surge. The final days of hard pounding will be crucial.
The UK has been in strategic retreat since WWII, so the trend has been to cut repeatedly, but that's only justifiable up until the point where any further cuts jeopardise an effective national defence, rather than just limiting a global power projection role.
Anyway, Thatcher bucks the trend. But what you can probably say is that most Conservative governments prevaricate but eventually fund defence when they realise they have to, and there's no alternative.
The weaknesses of that approach then immediately show up with the next subsequent conflict.
You can get 5/1 on this on Betfair, compared to just under 2/1 on Most seats. In the circumstances that Labour win most seats is there really a 60%+ chance they do so on fewer votes?
They hope to "avoid net losses" in Lancashire? How exactly? What on earth could they win to offset the clear losses that are obvious (as confirmed by Ashcroft)?
Gains in Wales? Come off it....
Probabilities of key outcomes
Con most votes: 73%
Lab most votes: 27%
Con most seats: 75%
Lab most seats: 25%
Election forecast implies a larger gap, but not 20% for sure.
Baxter may well do with the old system but UKIP won't gain Orkney
Wales - gains might seem optimistic but holding steady might not - i.e. they lose their Cardiff Seat but gain Brecon.
Their view on the LDs btw:
"they are likely to do better than the polls suggest. But they will be slaughtered in their Lib/Lab marginals."
Just maybe he doesn't wIsh to continue and it's a case of seen that, done that, bought the T-shirt, time to move on to something new - but in reality it's actually quite difficult to quit, especially if you don't want Boris to succeed you.
Lab votes Con seats 2%
Lab votes Lab seats 30%
Con votes Con seats 56.1%
Con votes; Lab Seats 11.9%.
As for Cameron's so called Strategic Defence Review - that really was a set of cuts that did "jeopardise an effective national defence", but he will cut again if he is returned. Note that he went to the NATO conference last year and complained that other members were not meeting the agreed 2% target but has consistently refused to commit to it himself.
That's why the Tory focus on the SNP is going so catastrophically, calamitously wrong.
Why can only a handful of us see this??
And the chart with labour in front of the tories on immigration/asylum,don't believe it.
Are you suggesting the tories adopt some SNP Policies?
And the LD, Lab and UKIPs campaign are pretty dismal too this time.
Overall, therefore, I'd say this is one of the best Tory campaigns of recent elections: the focus on the economy has been consistent, and they've done a good job dampening down potential problem areas such as the NHS and immigration. In addition, canvassing and communication are much better than 2010 - Grant Shapps, for all his faults, has really improved the mechanics.
Oh, and the SNP card is playing extremely well, although that was a free gift from Nicola to help her friend Dave.
Cons Most Votes and Cons Most Seats 8/15
Lab Most Votes and Lab Most Seats 9/4
Cons Most Votes and Lab Most Seats 5
Lab Most Votes and Cons Most Seats 25
I misread your comment but I think you've misread the market.
Lab votes, Lab seats at 4-1 would indeed be a rick and a half. 9-4 gives a 2.3% 'gap' to Lab seats, Con votes which is poor.
I think you are wrong - using SNP as a scare tactic will play well for the tories.
Is there any polling on this issue?
He's clearly (still) very affected by how he thinks he screwed up the GE2010 campaign, and has developed a real nervous complex about this one now too, particularly since his back's up against the wall.
As far as the last few weeks have gone, he's been the invisible man.
The tory record on immigration is rubbish, for a party that is supposed to be...er.....conservative.
People expect labour to let loads in.
Good idea, but to do that there would need to be a government in Libya that the EU nations could deal with and we bombed the last one out of existence. Another one of Cameron's great ideas.
Yes I agree cut off the source and send any that make it back
Really fascinating piece. Great read. Thanks to Keiran and OGH for publishing it.
Hark, hark, the dogs do bark,
The beggars are coming to town.
CRAZY.
That can't hurt the Tories down here.
Libya was embroiled in civil war with Gaddafi bragging about a genocide. The situation there now is terrible. There's no guarantee it wouldn't be as bad if the West hadn't gotten involved [ISIS may have taken over the opposition anyway].
I agree with the basic plan of a processing centre in North Africa. Tunisia/Morocco could work.
I think it is a pretty reasonable tactic from Tories. As the incumbents their basic argument has to be 'don't ruin it', 'keep hold of nurse' etc etc. Anything that spreads idea that 'après mois le deluge' fits right into that surely?
A Stirling Tory has finally come out and announced he will be voting tactically for SLAB.
https://medium.com/@chrisdeerin/why-i-will-vote-labour-b058b17e042f
This normal voter happens to be writing articles for the Daily Mail and even had the opportunity to discuss his devious plan with the great man himself, I mean David Cameron not Jim Murphy.
To quote the Tory candidate in Gordon:
"Colin Clark, the Tory candidate in the seat, accused Ms Jardine of "desperation" and said her tactics were motivated by the collapse of her core vote. "Nationally the Liberals are polling at four per cent," he said. "People who are voting tactically for them are under false pretences, their own core vote has disappeared. That's true in Gordon just like it is everywhere else. Tactical voting is the saviour of a party with no policies".
More immigration = pressure on public services,schools,hospitals and housing.
Don't see you living in inner city Bradford any time soon.
Our spending is very high in real terms and when compared to other countries. We are investing heavily in the latest defence equipment. We are an active part of NATO. We are going to replace Trident provided we have a tory majority. Amazing the sneers the tories get from you when if there is any other result other than a tory majority our strategic role in the world (which if you had a brain is the key to our national defence) is bu##ered.
My criticism of this campaign isn't the message (I think the Tories are playing their strongest cards) it's the complacency and energy.