politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Monday afternoon rolling polling blog
Mondays are always a big day polling day. First off was Populus with a slight up-tick for LAB. This afternoon we’ll have ICM, which last week had a 6% CON lead, and Ashcroft. This evening there will be the daily YouGov.
Ed Miliband is boosted today by an exclusive poll showing Labour ahead of the Conservatives on four of the top six election issues.
In a blow to David Cameron, both Labour and Ukip are ahead of the Conservatives on immigration and asylum — an issue that senior Tories hoped would play to their favour — according to new research by Ipsos MORI.
A league table of public priorities puts the NHS first, followed by the economy, education, immigration, taxation and benefits.
Ed Miliband is boosted today by an exclusive poll showing Labour ahead of the Conservatives on four of the top six election issues.
In a blow to David Cameron, both Labour and Ukip are ahead of the Conservatives on immigration and asylum — an issue that senior Tories hoped would play to their favour — according to new research by Ipsos MORI.
A league table of public priorities puts the NHS first, followed by the economy, education, immigration, taxation and benefits.
Ed Miliband is boosted today by an exclusive poll showing Labour ahead of the Conservatives on four of the top six election issues.
In a blow to David Cameron, both Labour and Ukip are ahead of the Conservatives on immigration and asylum — an issue that senior Tories hoped would play to their favour — according to new research by Ipsos MORI.
A league table of public priorities puts the NHS first, followed by the economy, education, immigration, taxation and benefits.
"even after people are asked how they will vote in their particular constituency, a form of wording that clearly increases the estimated Liberal Democrat vote in the four constituencies they are defending, the Liberal Democrat vote is down on average by 15 points, exactly in line with the 15 point drop in the party’s Scotland-wide share of the vote. There is no sign here of the local popularity of the party’s MPs enabling them to stem the outgoing tide.
We should not be surprised. There are plenty of constituencies in Scotland where the party won less than 15% of the vote in 2010, and where its vote thus cannot possibly decline by as much as 15 points. The three Labour seats in which Ashcroft polled all fall into that category and in these the average decline in the party’s vote according to Ashcroft is just seven points. The Liberal Democrats must be losing votes more heavily in some places where they were previously stronger. All that the local popularity of their incumbent MPs seems to be doing is counterbalancing this inevitable pattern."
This was a deduction that I made last year, so it's really satisfying to see that it seems to be coming true.
Interesting that there's only movement of 2% or 3% (in both directions!) between Lab and Con, showing that most of the changes since 2010 have been with regard to the smaller parties.
What Mr Man are you?! Is this what happens to the LibDems in Coalition?
I love these Amazon reviews >
We meet Mr Messy - a man whose entire day-to-day existence is the undiluted expression of his individuality. His very untidiness is a metaphor for his blissful and unselfconscious disregard for the Social Order. Yes, there are times when he himself is a victim of this individuality - as when he trips over a brush he has left on his garden path - but he goes through life with a smile on his face.
That is, until a chance meeting with Mr Neat and Mr Tidy - the archetypal men in suits. They set about a merciless programme of social engineering and indoctrination that we are left in no doubt is in flagrant violation of his free will. 'But I like being messy' he protests as they anonymize both his home and his person with their relentless cleaning activity, a symbolism thinly veiled.
This process is so thorough that by the end of it he is unrecognizable - a homogenized pink blob, no longer truly himself (that vibrant Pollock-like scribble of before). He smiles the smile of a brainwashed automaton, blandly accepting what he has been given no agency to question or refuse. It is in this very smile that the sheer horror of what we have seen to occur is at its most acute.
Ed Miliband is boosted today by an exclusive poll showing Labour ahead of the Conservatives on four of the top six election issues.
In a blow to David Cameron, both Labour and Ukip are ahead of the Conservatives on immigration and asylum — an issue that senior Tories hoped would play to their favour — according to new research by Ipsos MORI.
A league table of public priorities puts the NHS first, followed by the economy, education, immigration, taxation and benefits.
Ed Miliband is boosted today by an exclusive poll showing Labour ahead of the Conservatives on four of the top six election issues.
In a blow to David Cameron, both Labour and Ukip are ahead of the Conservatives on immigration and asylum — an issue that senior Tories hoped would play to their favour — according to new research by Ipsos MORI.
A league table of public priorities puts the NHS first, followed by the economy, education, immigration, taxation and benefits.
Quite A result really given Labour created pretty much all the problems over 13 years.. We never learn we just don't. I guess we will just have to go through the socialist wash, spin cycle all over again before people will finally get it. I doubt it though.
Ed Miliband is boosted today by an exclusive poll showing Labour ahead of the Conservatives on four of the top six election issues.
In a blow to David Cameron, both Labour and Ukip are ahead of the Conservatives on immigration and asylum — an issue that senior Tories hoped would play to their favour — according to new research by Ipsos MORI.
A league table of public priorities puts the NHS first, followed by the economy, education, immigration, taxation and benefits.
Ed Miliband is boosted today by an exclusive poll showing Labour ahead of the Conservatives on four of the top six election issues.
In a blow to David Cameron, both Labour and Ukip are ahead of the Conservatives on immigration and asylum — an issue that senior Tories hoped would play to their favour — according to new research by Ipsos MORI.
A league table of public priorities puts the NHS first, followed by the economy, education, immigration, taxation and benefits.
Quite A result really given Labour created pretty much all the problems over 13 years.. We never learn we just don't. I guess we will just have to go through the socialist wash, spin cycle all over again before people will finally get it. I doubt it though.
Labour might find it a bit harder starting with a £50bn deficit and no majority. We shall may see.
Interesting that there's only movement of 2% or 3% (in both directions!) between Lab and Con, showing that most of the changes since 2010 have been with regard to the smaller parties.
Is that almost as good as an exit poll ?
SNP might pick up from non voters, Lab and Con, and particularly LDs from 2010 DKs swinging back to their own party.
But broadly speaking the result may be very like this - since this is a poll of people who voted last time so the whole non voters issue is stripped out.
Ed Miliband is boosted today by an exclusive poll showing Labour ahead of the Conservatives on four of the top six election issues.
In a blow to David Cameron, both Labour and Ukip are ahead of the Conservatives on immigration and asylum — an issue that senior Tories hoped would play to their favour — according to new research by Ipsos MORI.
A league table of public priorities puts the NHS first, followed by the economy, education, immigration, taxation and benefits.
"There are now just 20-odd days left until polling day. In a sign that both sides expect this election to go to the wire, they have both kept policies back from their manifestos to boost the last few days of the campaign.
The Conservatives will concentrate on two main themes in these final weeks. The first is tax. The party leadership believes that voters haven’t yet realised how sizeable the income-tax cuts the party is offering are. The second is the prospect of the SNP propping up a Labour government. The Conservatives believe that the fear of what this would mean will drive English voters to them in the final furlong of this race.
But the Conservatives also need to find a way to show that David Cameron actually wants to do the top job. At the moment, this is not coming across. According to one of those who knows him best, part of the problem is actually how nervous he is about losing. This fear is constraining his -performances.
The Conservatives, not least Cameron himself, are fond of playing up the parallels between this campaign and that of 1992. One wonders if Cameron might be well served by taking another leaf out of that campaign’s strategy and getting on his soapbox, engaging with the voters as John Major did and proving that he is not too posh to push."
Ed Miliband is boosted today by an exclusive poll showing Labour ahead of the Conservatives on four of the top six election issues.
In a blow to David Cameron, both Labour and Ukip are ahead of the Conservatives on immigration and asylum — an issue that senior Tories hoped would play to their favour — according to new research by Ipsos MORI.
A league table of public priorities puts the NHS first, followed by the economy, education, immigration, taxation and benefits.
"If the SNP could afford the right American consultant, she could take the 21st century approach to campaigning: just junk mail a few thousand voters and be done with it. Campaign sorted!"
Ed Miliband is boosted today by an exclusive poll showing Labour ahead of the Conservatives on four of the top six election issues.
In a blow to David Cameron, both Labour and Ukip are ahead of the Conservatives on immigration and asylum — an issue that senior Tories hoped would play to their favour — according to new research by Ipsos MORI.
A league table of public priorities puts the NHS first, followed by the economy, education, immigration, taxation and benefits.
Ed Miliband is boosted today by an exclusive poll showing Labour ahead of the Conservatives on four of the top six election issues.
In a blow to David Cameron, both Labour and Ukip are ahead of the Conservatives on immigration and asylum — an issue that senior Tories hoped would play to their favour — according to new research by Ipsos MORI.
A league table of public priorities puts the NHS first, followed by the economy, education, immigration, taxation and benefits.
Looking at that YouGov infographic, it's perfectly possible that Cameron could do just as well as in GE2010, and still lose, just because the opposition has now rallied around Labour.
What Cameron hasn't been able to do in office is to build upon and grow the Conservative brand. That was probably his only chance from the very moment the coalition was formed.
Another boat sinks on it's way to Europe from Africa
This people smuggling is becoming more and more horrific... 21st century slave ships, and the same fate awaits those who make it except their owners are the state not individuals
''But the Conservatives also need to find a way to show that David Cameron actually wants to do the top job. At the moment, this is not coming across. ''
Another week passes, and David Cameron is still losing the election. Indeed, more than he probably was last week.
Utterly unthinkable that with 47% backing centre right / right parties, we are going to be governed by a hapless weak incompetent who only ever wanted to force his brother to include him in the Shadow Cabinet and yet becomes accidental Prime Minister on the back of c34% of the vote, and will have to govern in hock to the unspeakable demands of Scottish Nationalists who are hell-bent on destroying (and indeed may already have destroyed) his party.
But it's happening. It's real. It's a classic example of a car crash happening in slow motion, and there's not a thing we can do about it when we have loonies on the Left salivating at the prospect of a hard left SNP forcing hardcore socialism on the rest of us, and loonies on the Right preventing a reasonable if unremarkable PM from winning a safety first second term that around 40% of the country would probably be happy with because they don't think he's Daily Telegraph enough and won't give them the referendum on the EU that only he can deliver to them.
Ed Miliband is boosted today by an exclusive poll showing Labour ahead of the Conservatives on four of the top six election issues.
In a blow to David Cameron, both Labour and Ukip are ahead of the Conservatives on immigration and asylum — an issue that senior Tories hoped would play to their favour — according to new research by Ipsos MORI.
A league table of public priorities puts the NHS first, followed by the economy, education, immigration, taxation and benefits.
I know they weight, but 42% of workers in the raw sample are public sector workers?
Public employees have so much more time at work to complete the pollster's questionnaires - well it has to be marginally less boring than twiddling your thumbs all day doesn't it?
Call me crazy, but I'm tempted of betting on Lab Most Votes/Most Seats. I suspect they will fall slightly short on both counts, but with the polls as they are it surely isn't that far from a toss-up on most votes. You can get 4/1 on Lab Most Votes and Seats, which seems a bit generous.
''But the Conservatives also need to find a way to show that David Cameron actually wants to do the top job. At the moment, this is not coming across. ''
Good point.
Yes but if Cameron hasn't been able to show us want he wants to do with the top job after having it for nearly five years he is not going to convince many in a few days. Actions speak a lot louder than words, especially words uttered in desperation in an election campaign.
Call me crazy, but I'm tempted of betting on Lab Most Votes/Most Seats. I suspect they will fall slightly short on both counts, but with the polls as they are it surely isn't that far from a toss-up on most votes. You can get 4/1 on Lab Most Votes and Seats, which seems a bit generous.
DYOR
Why not just stick to the outrageous value on Most Seats?
I got this today from a think-tank with close links to what the Conservatives are thinking. Take as you want running through the numbers, it suggests the Conservatives think they can get at least the same number of seats as last time. For those commenting on Ed Balls' chances, the comments on Yorkshire are interesting.
JackW - does this tie in with your feedback?
London, they (the Conservatives) are under pressure from Labour, who have six targets (they will also win a couple from the Liberals). Although there are signs that poorer areas are susceptible to the politics of envy, the Tories are fighting hard on the ground, and there have been some cheerful reports. Miliband's stance on Palestine has done him no favours in Hendon, the most marginal Tory seat: majority 106. Sixty-nine per cent of British Jews vote Conservative anyway. But it will indeed require a late swing if the Tories are to avoid losses, though there are also likely to make a couple of gains from the Liberals in South-West London.
The West Country. Local Tories are hopeful, as is Central Office. There is the prospect of at least 6 gains.
The West Midlands. Jaguar/Landrover is producing a feel-good factor among an electorate which often votes with its wallet. The Tories are hoping for two or three gains.
The East Midlands and Derbyshire. There is less of an uplift from Rolls-Royce's order-book, probably because of recent job losses. But the Tories believe that they are at least holding their own marginals. Not so the coastal preserves of Ukip.
Lancashire. Local Tories are bullish: Cental Office, cautious. But there is the hope of avoiding net losses.
Yorkshire. A confused picture emerges, with results dependent on local factors.
Wales. Partly because of the NHS scandal, the local Tories believe that they can make gains. It is useful to note that Plaid Cymru has two MPs
Those are the principal battle-grounds, and there is no suggestion of a Labour surge. The final days of hard pounding will be crucial.
Another week passes, and David Cameron is still losing the election. Indeed, more than he probably was last week.
Utterly unthinkable that with 47% backing centre right / right parties, we are going to be governed by a hapless weak incompetent who only ever wanted to force his brother to include him in the Shadow Cabinet and yet becomes accidental Prime Minister on the back of c34% of the vote, and will have to govern in hock to the unspeakable demands of Scottish Nationalists who are hell-bent on destroying (and indeed may already have destroyed) his party.
But it's happening. It's real. It's a classic example of a car crash happening in slow motion, and there's not a thing we can do about it when we have loonies on the Left salivating at the prospect of a hard left SNP forcing hardcore socialism on the rest of us, and loonies on the Right preventing a reasonable if unremarkable PM from winning a safety first second term that around 40% of the country would probably be happy with because they don't think he's Daily Telegraph enough and won't give them the referendum on the EU that only he can deliver to them.
Somehow even more downbeat than ever... impressive
FPT @ HurstLlama. Not true that Conservatives always cut defence. Defence spending rose under Thatcher up until 1986. It also rose (belatedly) in the late 1930s under Baldwin/Chamberlain and pre-WWI for the dreadnought programme.
The UK has been in strategic retreat since WWII, so the trend has been to cut repeatedly, but that's only justifiable up until the point where any further cuts jeopardise an effective national defence, rather than just limiting a global power projection role.
Anyway, Thatcher bucks the trend. But what you can probably say is that most Conservative governments prevaricate but eventually fund defence when they realise they have to, and there's no alternative.
The weaknesses of that approach then immediately show up with the next subsequent conflict.
Call me crazy, but I'm tempted of betting on Lab Most Votes/Most Seats. I suspect they will fall slightly short on both counts, but with the polls as they are it surely isn't that far from a toss-up on most votes. You can get 4/1 on Lab Most Votes and Seats, which seems a bit generous.
DYOR
Why not just stick to the outrageous value on Most Seats?
Firstly, already stuffed to the gills on it. Secondly, given that Labour's 'electoral bias edge' is significantly reduced if they win most seats they may well edge most votes too.
You can get 5/1 on this on Betfair, compared to just under 2/1 on Most seats. In the circumstances that Labour win most seats is there really a 60%+ chance they do so on fewer votes?
Another boat sinks on it's way to Europe from Africa
This people smuggling is becoming more and more horrific... 21st century slave ships, and the same fate awaits those who make it except their owners are the state not individuals
A bit of naval "cutting out" by raiding the ports of origin, and scuttling the empty boats before they load looks to be in order. Also for survivors of abandoned vessels to be landed on the Libyan shore in a refugee camp rather than Italy/Malta.
I got this today from a think-tank with close links to what the Conservatives are thinking. Take as you want running through the numbers, it suggests the Conservatives think they can get at least the same number of seats as last time. For those commenting on Ed Balls' chances, the comments on Yorkshire are interesting.
JackW - does this tie in with your feedback?
London, they (the Conservatives) are under pressure from Labour, who have six targets (they will also win a couple from the Liberals). Although there are signs that poorer areas are susceptible to the politics of envy, the Tories are fighting hard on the ground, and there have been some cheerful reports. Miliband's stance on Palestine has done him no favours in Hendon, the most marginal Tory seat: majority 106. Sixty-nine per cent of British Jews vote Conservative anyway. But it will indeed require a late swing if the Tories are to avoid losses, though there are also likely to make a couple of gains from the Liberals in South-West London.
The West Country. Local Tories are hopeful, as is Central Office. There is the prospect of at least 6 gains.
The West Midlands. Jaguar/Landrover is producing a feel-good factor among an electorate which often votes with its wallet. The Tories are hoping for two or three gains.
The East Midlands and Derbyshire. There is less of an uplift from Rolls-Royce's order-book, probably because of recent job losses. But the Tories believe that they are at least holding their own marginals. Not so the coastal preserves of Ukip.
Lancashire. Local Tories are bullish: Cental Office, cautious. But there is the hope of avoiding net losses.
Yorkshire. A confused picture emerges, with results dependent on local factors.
Wales. Partly because of the NHS scandal, the local Tories believe that they can make gains. It is useful to note that Plaid Cymru has two MPs
Those are the principal battle-grounds, and there is no suggestion of a Labour surge. The final days of hard pounding will be crucial.
That's frightening if any of that is true, except perhaps the vague optimism in the SW and (less perhaps) SW London.
They hope to "avoid net losses" in Lancashire? How exactly? What on earth could they win to offset the clear losses that are obvious (as confirmed by Ashcroft)?
Another week passes, and David Cameron is still losing the election. Indeed, more than he probably was last week.
Utterly unthinkable that with 47% backing centre right / right parties, we are going to be governed by a hapless weak incompetent who only ever wanted to force his brother to include him in the Shadow Cabinet and yet becomes accidental Prime Minister on the back of c34% of the vote, and will have to govern in hock to the unspeakable demands of Scottish Nationalists who are hell-bent on destroying (and indeed may already have destroyed) his party.
But it's happening. It's real. It's a classic example of a car crash happening in slow motion, and there's not a thing we can do about it when we have loonies on the Left salivating at the prospect of a hard left SNP forcing hardcore socialism on the rest of us, and loonies on the Right preventing a reasonable if unremarkable PM from winning a safety first second term that around 40% of the country would probably be happy with because they don't think he's Daily Telegraph enough and won't give them the referendum on the EU that only he can deliver to them.
Go easy on him. General Election campaigns aren't Dave's forte.
Another week passes, and David Cameron is still losing the election. Indeed, more than he probably was last week.
Utterly unthinkable that with 47% backing centre right / right parties, we are going to be governed by a hapless weak incompetent who only ever wanted to force his brother to include him in the Shadow Cabinet and yet becomes accidental Prime Minister on the back of c34% of the vote, and will have to govern in hock to the unspeakable demands of Scottish Nationalists who are hell-bent on destroying (and indeed may already have destroyed) his party.
But it's happening. It's real. It's a classic example of a car crash happening in slow motion, and there's not a thing we can do about it when we have loonies on the Left salivating at the prospect of a hard left SNP forcing hardcore socialism on the rest of us, and loonies on the Right preventing a reasonable if unremarkable PM from winning a safety first second term that around 40% of the country would probably be happy with because they don't think he's Daily Telegraph enough and won't give them the referendum on the EU that only he can deliver to them.
Somehow even more downbeat than ever... impressive
Well, yes, I probably am I bit more downbeat than last week. Because we're one week nearer to disaster, and the Tories are no nearer turning this around.
Call me crazy, but I'm tempted of betting on Lab Most Votes/Most Seats. I suspect they will fall slightly short on both counts, but with the polls as they are it surely isn't that far from a toss-up on most votes. You can get 4/1 on Lab Most Votes and Seats, which seems a bit generous.
DYOR
The 'gap' between votes and seats is very small now imo. Fisher makes it 2%
Probabilities of key outcomes Con most votes: 73% Lab most votes: 27%
Con most seats: 75% Lab most seats: 25%
Election forecast implies a larger gap, but not 20% for sure.
Baxter may well do with the old system but UKIP won't gain Orkney
I got this today from a think-tank with close links to what the Conservatives are thinking. Take as you want running through the numbers, it suggests the Conservatives think they can get at least the same number of seats as last time. For those commenting on Ed Balls' chances, the comments on Yorkshire are interesting.
JackW - does this tie in with your feedback?
London, they (the Conservatives) are under pressure from Labour, who have six targets (they will also win a couple from the Liberals). Although there are signs that poorer areas are susceptible to the politics of envy, the Tories are fighting hard on the ground, and there have been some cheerful reports. Miliband's stance on Palestine has done him no favours in Hendon, the most marginal Tory seat: majority 106. Sixty-nine per cent of British Jews vote Conservative anyway. But it will indeed require a late swing if the Tories are to avoid losses, though there are also likely to make a couple of gains from the Liberals in South-West London.
The West Country. Local Tories are hopeful, as is Central Office. There is the prospect of at least 6 gains.
The West Midlands. Jaguar/Landrover is producing a feel-good factor among an electorate which often votes with its wallet. The Tories are hoping for two or three gains.
The East Midlands and Derbyshire. There is less of an uplift from Rolls-Royce's order-book, probably because of recent job losses. But the Tories believe that they are at least holding their own marginals. Not so the coastal preserves of Ukip.
Lancashire. Local Tories are bullish: Cental Office, cautious. But there is the hope of avoiding net losses.
Yorkshire. A confused picture emerges, with results dependent on local factors.
Wales. Partly because of the NHS scandal, the local Tories believe that they can make gains. It is useful to note that Plaid Cymru has two MPs
Those are the principal battle-grounds, and there is no suggestion of a Labour surge. The final days of hard pounding will be crucial.
That's frightening if any of that is true.
They hope to "avoid net losses" in Lancashire? How exactly? What on earth could they win to offset the clear losses that are obvious (as confirmed by Ashcroft)?
Gains in Wales? Come off it....
The Lancashire one is interesting because it is the locals who are saying, not CCHQ. No further detail was given but SNP might be an issue (Will Straw parachuted into R&D will not help either).
Wales - gains might seem optimistic but holding steady might not - i.e. they lose their Cardiff Seat but gain Brecon.
Their view on the LDs btw:
"they are likely to do better than the polls suggest. But they will be slaughtered in their Lib/Lab marginals."
Another week passes, and David Cameron is still losing the election. Indeed, more than he probably was last week.
Utterly unthinkable that with 47% backing centre right / right parties, we are going to be governed by a hapless weak incompetent who only ever wanted to force his brother to include him in the Shadow Cabinet and yet becomes accidental Prime Minister on the back of c34% of the vote, and will have to govern in hock to the unspeakable demands of Scottish Nationalists who are hell-bent on destroying (and indeed may already have destroyed) his party.
But it's happening. It's real. It's a classic example of a car crash happening in slow motion, and there's not a thing we can do about it when we have loonies on the Left salivating at the prospect of a hard left SNP forcing hardcore socialism on the rest of us, and loonies on the Right preventing a reasonable if unremarkable PM from winning a safety first second term that around 40% of the country would probably be happy with because they don't think he's Daily Telegraph enough and won't give them the referendum on the EU that only he can deliver to them.
Go easy on him. General Election campaigns aren't Dave's forte.
Don't. I want to laugh, but it's too grave a situation....
Casino : "But the Conservatives also need to find a way to show that David Cameron actually wants to do the top job. At the moment, this is not coming across."
Just maybe he doesn't wIsh to continue and it's a case of seen that, done that, bought the T-shirt, time to move on to something new - but in reality it's actually quite difficult to quit, especially if you don't want Boris to succeed you.
Call me crazy, but I'm tempted of betting on Lab Most Votes/Most Seats. I suspect they will fall slightly short on both counts, but with the polls as they are it surely isn't that far from a toss-up on most votes. You can get 4/1 on Lab Most Votes and Seats, which seems a bit generous.
DYOR
Why not just stick to the outrageous value on Most Seats?
Firstly, already stuffed to the gills on it. Secondly, given that Labour's 'electoral bias edge' is significantly reduced if they win most seats they may well edge most votes too.
You can get 5/1 on this on Betfair, compared to just under 2/1 on Most seats. In the circumstances that Labour win most seats is there really a 60%+ chance they do so on fewer votes?
I got the following a while back - in the meantime the SNP has strengthened in the markets so the Lab votes, Con Seats may be higher than 2% now. Perhaps 4%
Lab votes Con seats 2% Lab votes Lab seats 30% Con votes Con seats 56.1% Con votes; Lab Seats 11.9%.
FPT @ HurstLlama. Not true that Conservatives always cut defence. Defence spending rose under Thatcher up until 1986. It also rose (belatedly) in the late 1930s under Baldwin/Chamberlain and pre-WWI for the dreadnought programme.
The UK has been in strategic retreat since WWII, so the trend has been to cut repeatedly, but that's only justifiable up until the point where any further cuts jeopardise an effective national defence, rather than just limiting a global power projection role.
Anyway, Thatcher bucks the trend. But what you can probably say is that most Conservative governments prevaricate but eventually fund defence when they realise they have to, and there's no alternative.
The weaknesses of that approach then immediately show up with the next subsequent conflict.
Thatcher had two sets of defence cuts. The first in the run up to the Falklands war when John Nott was Secretary of State for Defence (if Argentina had waited a bit Thatcher's government would have scrapped/sold the RN assets needed to mount the re-take). The second "Options for Change" was started under Thatcher and completed under Major.
As for Cameron's so called Strategic Defence Review - that really was a set of cuts that did "jeopardise an effective national defence", but he will cut again if he is returned. Note that he went to the NATO conference last year and complained that other members were not meeting the agreed 2% target but has consistently refused to commit to it himself.
I got this today from a think-tank with close links to what the Conservatives are thinking. Take as you want running through the numbers, it suggests the Conservatives think they can get at least the same number of seats as last time. For those commenting on Ed Balls' chances, the comments on Yorkshire are interesting.
JackW - does this tie in with your feedback?
[snipped]
Those are the principal battle-grounds, and there is no suggestion of a Labour surge. The final days of hard pounding will be crucial.
That's frightening if any of that is true.
They hope to "avoid net losses" in Lancashire? How exactly? What on earth could they win to offset the clear losses that are obvious (as confirmed by Ashcroft)?
Gains in Wales? Come off it....
The Lancashire one is interesting because it is the locals who are saying, not CCHQ. No further detail was given but SNP might be an issue (Will Straw parachuted into R&D will not help either).
Wales - gains might seem optimistic but holding steady might not - i.e. they lose their Cardiff Seat but gain Brecon.
Their view on the LDs btw:
"they are likely to do better than the polls suggest. But they will be slaughtered in their Lib/Lab marginals."
My view on the SNP "threat" is that it resonates well in Surrey Heath but is barely an issue anywhere else. Indeed, the reception Sturgeon is getting is probably undermining every single Sturgeon with Ed in pocket billboard poster appearing in every northern working class Tory held marginal. I mentioned the one on the main st in Colne (Pendle) last week - I think many in Colne are looking at that as a prospectus and thinking "I quite like the sound of that, how do I vote for her?"
That's why the Tory focus on the SNP is going so catastrophically, calamitously wrong.
Ed Miliband is boosted today by an exclusive poll showing Labour ahead of the Conservatives on four of the top six election issues.
In a blow to David Cameron, both Labour and Ukip are ahead of the Conservatives on immigration and asylum — an issue that senior Tories hoped would play to their favour — according to new research by Ipsos MORI.
A league table of public priorities puts the NHS first, followed by the economy, education, immigration, taxation and benefits.
I know they weight, but 42% of workers in the raw sample are public sector workers?
Public employees have so much more time at work to complete the pollster's questionnaires - well it has to be marginally less boring than twiddling your thumbs all day doesn't it?
Cold uncaring private sector - will no one think about the pollsters ?
Another week passes, and David Cameron is still losing the election. Indeed, more than he probably was last week.
Utterly unthinkable that with 47% backing centre right / right parties, we are going to be governed by a hapless weak incompetent who only ever wanted to force his brother to include him in the Shadow Cabinet and yet becomes accidental Prime Minister on the back of c34% of the vote, and will have to govern in hock to the unspeakable demands of Scottish Nationalists who are hell-bent on destroying (and indeed may already have destroyed) his party.
But it's happening. It's real. It's a classic example of a car crash happening in slow motion, and there's not a thing we can do about it when we have loonies on the Left salivating at the prospect of a hard left SNP forcing hardcore socialism on the rest of us, and loonies on the Right preventing a reasonable if unremarkable PM from winning a safety first second term that around 40% of the country would probably be happy with because they don't think he's Daily Telegraph enough and won't give them the referendum on the EU that only he can deliver to them.
Go easy on him. General Election campaigns aren't Dave's forte.
Don't. I want to laugh, but it's too grave a situation....
He could head to Blackpool or Newquay. Quite a few hen parties head there and, if he's lucky, he might be asked for a few selfies.
Call me crazy, but I'm tempted of betting on Lab Most Votes/Most Seats. I suspect they will fall slightly short on both counts, but with the polls as they are it surely isn't that far from a toss-up on most votes. You can get 4/1 on Lab Most Votes and Seats, which seems a bit generous.
DYOR
Why not just stick to the outrageous value on Most Seats?
Firstly, already stuffed to the gills on it. Secondly, given that Labour's 'electoral bias edge' is significantly reduced if they win most seats they may well edge most votes too.
You can get 5/1 on this on Betfair, compared to just under 2/1 on Most seats. In the circumstances that Labour win most seats is there really a 60%+ chance they do so on fewer votes?
I got the following a while back - in the meantime the SNP has strengthened in the markets so the Lab votes, Con Seats may be higher than 2% now. Perhaps 4%
Lab votes Con seats 2% Lab votes Lab seats 30% Con votes Con seats 56.1% Con votes; Lab Seats 11.9%.
That looks about right to me. And makes 5/1 or even 4/1 very solid value.
I'm baffled by the negative comments about the Conservative campaign, although to be fair most of such comments come from the usual suspects. The campaign is clearly much better than 2010, 2005, 2001, and 1997. 1992 was a dog's breakfast until John Major took things in hand with his (initially much-derided) soap-box. The campaigns of the Thatcher years were of course much easier, given the Falklands factor and the complete disarray of the opposition.
Overall, therefore, I'd say this is one of the best Tory campaigns of recent elections: the focus on the economy has been consistent, and they've done a good job dampening down potential problem areas such as the NHS and immigration. In addition, canvassing and communication are much better than 2010 - Grant Shapps, for all his faults, has really improved the mechanics.
Oh, and the SNP card is playing extremely well, although that was a free gift from Nicola to help her friend Dave.
Call me crazy, but I'm tempted of betting on Lab Most Votes/Most Seats. I suspect they will fall slightly short on both counts, but with the polls as they are it surely isn't that far from a toss-up on most votes. You can get 4/1 on Lab Most Votes and Seats, which seems a bit generous.
DYOR
Why not just stick to the outrageous value on Most Seats?
Firstly, already stuffed to the gills on it. Secondly, given that Labour's 'electoral bias edge' is significantly reduced if they win most seats they may well edge most votes too.
You can get 5/1 on this on Betfair, compared to just under 2/1 on Most seats. In the circumstances that Labour win most seats is there really a 60%+ chance they do so on fewer votes?
I got the following a while back - in the meantime the SNP has strengthened in the markets so the Lab votes, Con Seats may be higher than 2% now. Perhaps 4%
Lab votes Con seats 2% Lab votes Lab seats 30% Con votes Con seats 56.1% Con votes; Lab Seats 11.9%.
That looks about right to me. And makes 5/1 or even 4/1 very solid value.
"You can get 4/1 on Lab Most Votes and Seats"
Cons Most Votes and Cons Most Seats 8/15 Lab Most Votes and Lab Most Seats 9/4 Cons Most Votes and Lab Most Seats 5 Lab Most Votes and Cons Most Seats 25
I misread your comment but I think you've misread the market.
Lab votes, Lab seats at 4-1 would indeed be a rick and a half. 9-4 gives a 2.3% 'gap' to Lab seats, Con votes which is poor.
I got this today from a think-tank with close links to what the Conservatives are thinking. Take as you want running through the numbers, it suggests the Conservatives think they can get at least the same number of seats as last time. For those commenting on Ed Balls' chances, the comments on Yorkshire are interesting.
JackW - does this tie in with your feedback?
[snipped]
Those are the principal battle-grounds, and there is no suggestion of a Labour surge. The final days of hard pounding will be crucial.
That's frightening if any of that is true.
They hope to "avoid net losses" in Lancashire? How exactly? What on earth could they win to offset the clear losses that are obvious (as confirmed by Ashcroft)?
Gains in Wales? Come off it....
The Lancashire one is interesting because it is the locals who are saying, not CCHQ. No further detail was given but SNP might be an issue (Will Straw parachuted into R&D will not help either).
Wales - gains might seem optimistic but holding steady might not - i.e. they lose their Cardiff Seat but gain Brecon.
Their view on the LDs btw:
"they are likely to do better than the polls suggest. But they will be slaughtered in their Lib/Lab marginals."
That's why the Tory focus on the SNP is going so catastrophically, calamitously wrong.
Why can only a handful of us see this??
SNP launch was on our silenced but subtitled canteen TVs today. Several people shuddering at the Sturgeon (aka Jimmy Krankie surely...?) , and the SNP influence on Labour is widely feared.
I think you are wrong - using SNP as a scare tactic will play well for the tories.
Casino : "But the Conservatives also need to find a way to show that David Cameron actually wants to do the top job. At the moment, this is not coming across."
Just maybe he doesn't wIsh to continue and it's a case of seen that, done that, bought the T-shirt, time to move on to something new - but in reality it's actually quite difficult to quit, especially if you don't want Boris to succeed you.
I think he wants to win handsomely on his terms (I.e. Solidly with a strong 2nd Con-LD coalition) as he is rather competitive. However, if not, Phuket: he'd rather go back to Oxfordshire to spend time with Samantha, the kids and his vegetable patch.
He's clearly (still) very affected by how he thinks he screwed up the GE2010 campaign, and has developed a real nervous complex about this one now too, particularly since his back's up against the wall.
As far as the last few weeks have gone, he's been the invisible man.
Get bloody back on the economy and stop the silliness of the Labour/SNP love-in.
And the chart with labour in front of the tories on immigration/asylum,don't believe it.
Economy not cutting it either. Dodgy Tory claims mean they're just not believed enough. Needed a rounded more positive message but blew it with the absurd negativity over Ed.
"Also for survivors of abandoned vessels to be landed on the Libyan shore in a refugee camp rather than Italy/Malta."
Good idea, but to do that there would need to be a government in Libya that the EU nations could deal with and we bombed the last one out of existence. Another one of Cameron's great ideas.
I got this today from a think-tank with close links to what the Conservatives are thinking. Take as you want running through the numbers, it suggests the Conservatives think they can get at least the same number of seats as last time. For those commenting on Ed Balls' chances, the comments on Yorkshire are interesting.
JackW - does this tie in with your feedback?
[snipped]
Those are the principal battle-grounds, and there is no suggestion of a Labour surge. The final days of hard pounding will be crucial.
That's frightening if any of that is true.
They hope to "avoid net losses" in Lancashire? How exactly? What on earth could they win to offset the clear losses that are obvious (as confirmed by Ashcroft)?
Gains in Wales? Come off it....
The Lancashire one is interesting because it is the locals who are saying, not CCHQ. No further detail was given but SNP might be an issue (Will Straw parachuted into R&D will not help either).
Wales - gains might seem optimistic but holding steady might not - i.e. they lose their Cardiff Seat but gain Brecon.
Their view on the LDs btw:
"they are likely to do better than the polls suggest. But they will be slaughtered in their Lib/Lab marginals."
My view on the SNP "threat" is that it resonates well in Surrey Heath but is barely an issue anywhere else. Indeed, the reception Sturgeon is getting is probably undermining every single Sturgeon with Ed in pocket billboard poster appearing in every northern working class Tory held marginal. I mentioned the one on the main st in Colne (Pendle) last week - I think many in Colne are looking at that as a prospectus and thinking "I quite like the sound of that, how do I vote for her?"
That's why the Tory focus on the SNP is going so catastrophically, calamitously wrong.
Why can only a handful of us see this??
Judging from what I heard at the weekend canvassing in the Midlands, it also works well there. I know Robert Peston was suggesting many people were tweeting him as to how to vote for the SNP but, with all due respect, I do not think you will find that many prolific Northern WWC Tweeters....
Call me crazy, but I'm tempted of betting on Lab Most Votes/Most Seats. I suspect they will fall slightly short on both counts, but with the polls as they are it surely isn't that far from a toss-up on most votes. You can get 4/1 on Lab Most Votes and Seats, which seems a bit generous.
DYOR
Why not just stick to the outrageous value on Most Seats?
Firstly, already stuffed to the gills on it. Secondly, given that Labour's 'electoral bias edge' is significantly reduced if they win most seats they may well edge most votes too.
You can get 5/1 on this on Betfair, compared to just under 2/1 on Most seats. In the circumstances that Labour win most seats is there really a 60%+ chance they do so on fewer votes?
Parties have turned it around in just over 2 weeks before, right? Who cares that the reverse is much more common, that must be what will happen here, even though all the things the Tories are strong on have already been gone over, and all their negative stuff about Labour deployed.
Casino : "But the Conservatives also need to find a way to show that David Cameron actually wants to do the top job. At the moment, this is not coming across."
Just maybe he doesn't wIsh to continue and it's a case of seen that, done that, bought the T-shirt, time to move on to something new - but in reality it's actually quite difficult to quit, especially if you don't want Boris to succeed you.
5 years of fending off the constant backstabbing and whinging from LibDem 'partners', would be enough for anyone.
Another week passes, and David Cameron is still losing the election. Indeed, more than he probably was last week.
Utterly unthinkable that with 47% backing centre right / right parties, we are going to be governed by a hapless weak incompetent who only ever wanted to force his brother to include him in the Shadow Cabinet and yet becomes accidental Prime Minister on the back of c34% of the vote, and will have to govern in hock to the unspeakable demands of Scottish Nationalists who are hell-bent on destroying (and indeed may already have destroyed) his party.
But it's happening. It's real. It's a classic example of a car crash happening in slow motion, and there's not a thing we can do about it when we have loonies on the Left salivating at the prospect of a hard left SNP forcing hardcore socialism on the rest of us, and loonies on the Right preventing a reasonable if unremarkable PM from winning a safety first second term that around 40% of the country would probably be happy with because they don't think he's Daily Telegraph enough and won't give them the referendum on the EU that only he can deliver to them.
Go easy on him. General Election campaigns aren't Dave's forte.
Don't. I want to laugh, but it's too grave a situation....
I'm starting to think that everyone (apart from the SNP) is intentionally trying to lose. Not lose massively but just enough....
Another boat sinks on it's way to Europe from Africa
This people smuggling is becoming more and more horrific... 21st century slave ships, and the same fate awaits those who make it except their owners are the state not individuals
A bit of naval "cutting out" by raiding the ports of origin, and scuttling the empty boats before they load looks to be in order. Also for survivors of abandoned vessels to be landed on the Libyan shore in a refugee camp rather than Italy/Malta.
Apparently the smugglers are filling up the bowels of the boat with people and locking them in...pretty incredible in the 21st c
Yes I agree cut off the source and send any that make it back
I'm baffled by the negative comments about the Conservative campaign, although to be fair most of such comments come from the usual suspects. The campaign is clearly much better than 2010, 2005, 2001, and 1997. 1992 was a dog's breakfast until John Major took things in hand with his (initially much-derided) soap-box. The campaigns of the Thatcher years were of course much easier, given the Falklands factor and the complete disarray of the opposition.
Overall, therefore, I'd say this is one of the best Tory campaigns of recent elections: the focus on the economy has been consistent, and they've done a good job dampening down potential problem areas such as the NHS and immigration. In addition, canvassing and communication are much better than 2010 - Grant Shapps, for all his faults, has really improved the mechanics.
Oh, and the SNP card is playing extremely well, although that was a free gift from Nicola to help her friend Dave.
Just 2 1/2 weeks left Richard, then you can tell us what you really think
Will Straw parachuted into R&D will not help either.
I'm afraid it's not confidential think tank information the likes of which you have access to but us ordinary punters have been impressed with the swing young Will Straw seems to have achieved according to the Lord Ashcroft poll of the constituency.
On topic, this isn't Labour winning anyone over on immigration. This is about so much of the Cons shifting to UKIP on this issues that the centre-right perspective is split, so it (just) puts Labour ahead by default.
Ed Miliband is boosted today by an exclusive poll showing Labour ahead of the Conservatives on four of the top six election issues.
In a blow to David Cameron, both Labour and Ukip are ahead of the Conservatives on immigration and asylum — an issue that senior Tories hoped would play to their favour — according to new research by Ipsos MORI.
A league table of public priorities puts the NHS first, followed by the economy, education, immigration, taxation and benefits. U http://bit.ly/1D5Ycqi
I know they weight, but 42% of workers in the raw sample are public sector workers?
Public employees have so much more time at work to complete the pollster's questionnaires - well it has to be marginally less boring than twiddling your thumbs all day doesn't it?
First we had the debate poll that showed yougov panellists were 5x as likely to watch the debates, and now ipsos mori have over twice as many public sector workers. I don't have the money to bet but I might be tempted to put a little bit on the Tory majority. The one thing I have heard in South west is that people don't want Scotland calling the tune for a Labour government. This appears to be during descriptive back to th Tories. They did not believe Cameron on referendum, but they do not want someone from further away dictating policies whose stated objective is to break up the union. The 50p tax rate which raises next to nothing possibly 200mil, and mansion tax, were trumpet ed by sturgeon this morning will probably have next to no people paying them in Scotland.
For what its worth I don't think the Tory campaign has been terrible, not in the sense of them going backwards; it's just that its been totally ineffective.
I would have thought people fascinated by polling would have been writing articles on why Ukip are still getting 15% a fortnight out when the Shrewdies thought they were odds on to get single figures
Call me crazy, but I'm tempted of betting on Lab Most Votes/Most Seats. I suspect they will fall slightly short on both counts, but with the polls as they are it surely isn't that far from a toss-up on most votes. You can get 4/1 on Lab Most Votes and Seats, which seems a bit generous.
DYOR
Why not just stick to the outrageous value on Most Seats?
Firstly, already stuffed to the gills on it. Secondly, given that Labour's 'electoral bias edge' is significantly reduced if they win most seats they may well edge most votes too.
You can get 5/1 on this on Betfair, compared to just under 2/1 on Most seats. In the circumstances that Labour win most seats is there really a 60%+ chance they do so on fewer votes?
I would have thought people fascinated by polling would have been writing articles on why Ukip are still getting 15% a fortnight out when the Shrewdies thought they were odds on to get single figures
Who ? Yesterdays men old thing - the Sturgasm is the only show in town.
Whilst not a largely Kipper paper - the 400k readers of Times online seem to be splitting from Kipper to Tory - it went through a significant Kipper comment phase, and today it's going back to the Tories in light of the SNP defence statements.
Call me crazy, but I'm tempted of betting on Lab Most Votes/Most Seats. I suspect they will fall slightly short on both counts, but with the polls as they are it surely isn't that far from a toss-up on most votes. You can get 4/1 on Lab Most Votes and Seats, which seems a bit generous.
DYOR
Why not just stick to the outrageous value on Most Seats?
Firstly, already stuffed to the gills on it. Secondly, given that Labour's 'electoral bias edge' is significantly reduced if they win most seats they may well edge most votes too.
You can get 5/1 on this on Betfair, compared to just under 2/1 on Most seats. In the circumstances that Labour win most seats is there really a 60%+ chance they do so on fewer votes?
Libya was embroiled in civil war with Gaddafi bragging about a genocide. The situation there now is terrible. There's no guarantee it wouldn't be as bad if the West hadn't gotten involved [ISIS may have taken over the opposition anyway].
I agree with the basic plan of a processing centre in North Africa. Tunisia/Morocco could work.
Will Straw parachuted into R&D will not help either.
I'm afraid it's not confidential think tank information the likes of which you have access to but us ordinary punters have been impressed with the swing young Will Straw seems to have achieved according to the Lord Ashcroft poll of the constituency.
Mmm, that does not come from my "confidential" sources but JS is none too popular around certain parts of Lancashire and there was some dissatisfaction with his nomination
I would have thought people fascinated by polling would have been writing articles on why Ukip are still getting 15% a fortnight out when the Shrewdies thought they were odds on to get single figures
focus might be on those aiming for 300 seats, not 3.
I got this today from a think-tank with close links to what the Conservatives are thinking. Take as you want running through the numbers, it suggests the Conservatives think they can get at least the same number of seats as last time. For those commenting on Ed Balls' chances, the comments on Yorkshire are interesting.
JackW - does this tie in with your feedback?
[snipped]
Those are the principal battle-grounds, and there is no suggestion of a Labour surge. The final days of hard pounding will be crucial.
That's frightening if any of that is true.
They hope to "avoid net losses" in Lancashire? How exactly? What on earth could they win to offset the clear losses that are obvious (as confirmed by Ashcroft)?
Gains in Wales? Come off it....
The Lancashire one is interesting because it is the locals who are saying, not CCHQ. No further detail was given but SNP might be an issue (Will Straw parachuted into R&D will not help either).
Wales - gains might seem optimistic but holding steady might not - i.e. they lose their Cardiff Seat but gain Brecon.
Their view on the LDs btw:
"they are likely to do better than the polls suggest. But they will be slaughtered in their Lib/Lab marginals."
My view on the SNP "threat" is that it resonates well in Surrey Heath but is barely an issue anywhere else. Indeed, the reception Sturgeon is getting is probably undermining every single Sturgeon with Ed in pocket billboard poster appearing in every northern working class Tory held marginal. I mentioned the one on the main st in Colne (Pendle) last week - I think many in Colne are looking at that as a prospectus and thinking "I quite like the sound of that, how do I vote for her?"
That's why the Tory focus on the SNP is going so catastrophically, calamitously wrong.
Why can only a handful of us see this??
Judging from what I heard at the weekend canvassing in the Midlands, it also works well there. I know Robert Peston was suggesting many people were tweeting him as to how to vote for the SNP but, with all due respect, I do not think you will find that many prolific Northern WWC Tweeters....
Afternoon all,
I think it is a pretty reasonable tactic from Tories. As the incumbents their basic argument has to be 'don't ruin it', 'keep hold of nurse' etc etc. Anything that spreads idea that 'après mois le deluge' fits right into that surely?
This normal voter happens to be writing articles for the Daily Mail and even had the opportunity to discuss his devious plan with the great man himself, I mean David Cameron not Jim Murphy.
To quote the Tory candidate in Gordon:
"Colin Clark, the Tory candidate in the seat, accused Ms Jardine of "desperation" and said her tactics were motivated by the collapse of her core vote. "Nationally the Liberals are polling at four per cent," he said. "People who are voting tactically for them are under false pretences, their own core vote has disappeared. That's true in Gordon just like it is everywhere else. Tactical voting is the saviour of a party with no policies".
FPT @ HurstLlama. Not true that Conservatives always cut defence. Defence spending rose under Thatcher up until 1986. It also rose (belatedly) in the late 1930s under Baldwin/Chamberlain and pre-WWI for the dreadnought programme.
The UK has been in strategic retreat since WWII, so the trend has been to cut repeatedly, but that's only justifiable up until the point where any further cuts jeopardise an effective national defence, rather than just limiting a global power projection role.
Anyway, Thatcher bucks the trend. But what you can probably say is that most Conservative governments prevaricate but eventually fund defence when they realise they have to, and there's no alternative.
The weaknesses of that approach then immediately show up with the next subsequent conflict.
Thatcher had two sets of defence cuts. The first in the run up to the Falklands war when John Nott was Secretary of State for Defence (if Argentina had waited a bit Thatcher's government would have scrapped/sold the RN assets needed to mount the re-take). The second "Options for Change" was started under Thatcher and completed under Major.
As for Cameron's so called Strategic Defence Review - that really was a set of cuts that did "jeopardise an effective national defence", but he will cut again if he is returned. Note that he went to the NATO conference last year and complained that other members were not meeting the agreed 2% target but has consistently refused to commit to it himself.
You are just talking rubbish. Are you suggesting we should spend the same as when fighting the Korean War or defending a fading empire? Our spending is very high in real terms and when compared to other countries. We are investing heavily in the latest defence equipment. We are an active part of NATO. We are going to replace Trident provided we have a tory majority. Amazing the sneers the tories get from you when if there is any other result other than a tory majority our strategic role in the world (which if you had a brain is the key to our national defence) is bu##ered.
I'm baffled by the negative comments about the Conservative campaign, although to be fair most of such comments come from the usual suspects. The campaign is clearly much better than 2010, 2005, 2001, and 1997. 1992 was a dog's breakfast until John Major took things in hand with his (initially much-derided) soap-box. The campaigns of the Thatcher years were of course much easier, given the Falklands factor and the complete disarray of the opposition.
Overall, therefore, I'd say this is one of the best Tory campaigns of recent elections: the focus on the economy has been consistent, and they've done a good job dampening down potential problem areas such as the NHS and immigration. In addition, canvassing and communication are much better than 2010 - Grant Shapps, for all his faults, has really improved the mechanics.
Oh, and the SNP card is playing extremely well, although that was a free gift from Nicola to help her friend Dave.
I'm not sure you can call voters doubting Dave's still up for the job, a rallying of the opposition around Labour, or substantive improvements in Ed's ratings a success.
My criticism of this campaign isn't the message (I think the Tories are playing their strongest cards) it's the complacency and energy.
Will Straw parachuted into R&D will not help either.
I'm afraid it's not confidential think tank information the likes of which you have access to but us ordinary punters have been impressed with the swing young Will Straw seems to have achieved according to the Lord Ashcroft poll of the constituency.
Mmm, that does not come from my "confidential" sources but JS is none too popular around certain parts of Lancashire and there was some dissatisfaction with his nomination
And yet the polling suggests he's performing well.
Comments
In a blow to David Cameron, both Labour and Ukip are ahead of the Conservatives on immigration and asylum — an issue that senior Tories hoped would play to their favour — according to new research by Ipsos MORI.
A league table of public priorities puts the NHS first, followed by the economy, education, immigration, taxation and benefits.
http://bit.ly/1D5Ycqi
http://youtu.be/KgwokA8AG78
http://bit.ly/1bk1H5M
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/04/ashcroft-adds-to-labour-and-liberal-democrat-woes/
Of particular note (for me anyway):
"even after people are asked how they will vote in their particular constituency, a form of wording that clearly increases the estimated Liberal Democrat vote in the four constituencies they are defending, the Liberal Democrat vote is down on average by 15 points, exactly in line with the 15 point drop in the party’s Scotland-wide share of the vote. There is no sign here of the local popularity of the party’s MPs enabling them to stem the outgoing tide.
We should not be surprised. There are plenty of constituencies in Scotland where the party won less than 15% of the vote in 2010, and where its vote thus cannot possibly decline by as much as 15 points. The three Labour seats in which Ashcroft polled all fall into that category and in these the average decline in the party’s vote according to Ashcroft is just seven points. The Liberal Democrats must be losing votes more heavily in some places where they were previously stronger. All that the local popularity of their incumbent MPs seems to be doing is counterbalancing this inevitable pattern."
This was a deduction that I made last year, so it's really satisfying to see that it seems to be coming true.
What Mr Man are you?! Is this what happens to the LibDems in Coalition?
I love these Amazon reviews > amazon.co.uk/review/R24HIHKBR9DYCU
'Are you thinking what we are thinking' man must be crying into his Fosters
Public sector: 211
Private Sector: 290
I know they weight, but 42% of workers in the raw sample are public sector workers?
SNP might pick up from non voters, Lab and Con, and particularly LDs from 2010 DKs swinging back to their own party.
But broadly speaking the result may be very like this - since this is a poll of people who voted last time so the whole non voters issue is stripped out.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/how-nicola-sturgeon-is-blundering-her-way-to-a-majority/
It could be greater for Ed.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/politics/9501512/the-tories-have-survived-a-near-death-experience-but-theyre-not-home-yet/
"There are now just 20-odd days left until polling day. In a sign that both sides expect this election to go to the wire, they have both kept policies back from their manifestos to boost the last few days of the campaign.
The Conservatives will concentrate on two main themes in these final weeks. The first is tax. The party leadership believes that voters haven’t yet realised how sizeable the income-tax cuts the party is offering are. The second is the prospect of the SNP propping up a Labour government. The Conservatives believe that the fear of what this would mean will drive English voters to them in the final furlong of this race.
But the Conservatives also need to find a way to show that David Cameron actually wants to do the top job. At the moment, this is not coming across. According to one of those who knows him best, part of the problem is actually how nervous he is about losing. This fear is constraining his -performances.
The Conservatives, not least Cameron himself, are fond of playing up the parallels between this campaign and that of 1992. One wonders if Cameron might be well served by taking another leaf out of that campaign’s strategy and getting on his soapbox, engaging with the voters as John Major did and proving that he is not too posh to push."
What Cameron hasn't been able to do in office is to build upon and grow the Conservative brand. That was probably his only chance from the very moment the coalition was formed.
This people smuggling is becoming more and more horrific... 21st century slave ships, and the same fate awaits those who make it except their owners are the state not individuals
Good point.
Utterly unthinkable that with 47% backing centre right / right parties, we are going to be governed by a hapless weak incompetent who only ever wanted to force his brother to include him in the Shadow Cabinet and yet becomes accidental Prime Minister on the back of c34% of the vote, and will have to govern in hock to the unspeakable demands of Scottish Nationalists who are hell-bent on destroying (and indeed may already have destroyed) his party.
But it's happening. It's real. It's a classic example of a car crash happening in slow motion, and there's not a thing we can do about it when we have loonies on the Left salivating at the prospect of a hard left SNP forcing hardcore socialism on the rest of us, and loonies on the Right preventing a reasonable if unremarkable PM from winning a safety first second term that around 40% of the country would probably be happy with because they don't think he's Daily Telegraph enough and won't give them the referendum on the EU that only he can deliver to them.
Call me crazy, but I'm tempted of betting on Lab Most Votes/Most Seats. I suspect they will fall slightly short on both counts, but with the polls as they are it surely isn't that far from a toss-up on most votes. You can get 4/1 on Lab Most Votes and Seats, which seems a bit generous.
DYOR
JackW - does this tie in with your feedback?
London, they (the Conservatives) are under pressure from Labour, who have six targets (they will also win a couple from the Liberals). Although there are signs that poorer areas are susceptible to the politics of envy, the Tories are fighting hard on the ground, and there have been some cheerful reports. Miliband's stance on Palestine has done him no favours in Hendon, the most marginal Tory seat: majority 106. Sixty-nine per cent of British Jews vote Conservative anyway. But it will indeed require a late swing if the Tories are to avoid losses, though there are also likely to make a couple of gains from the Liberals in South-West London.
The West Country. Local Tories are hopeful, as is Central Office. There is the prospect of at least 6 gains.
The West Midlands. Jaguar/Landrover is producing a feel-good factor among an electorate which often votes with its wallet. The Tories are hoping for two or three gains.
The East Midlands and Derbyshire. There is less of an uplift from Rolls-Royce's order-book, probably because of recent job losses. But the Tories believe that they are at least holding their own marginals. Not so the coastal preserves of Ukip.
Lancashire. Local Tories are bullish: Cental Office, cautious. But there is the hope of avoiding net losses.
Yorkshire. A confused picture emerges, with results dependent on local factors.
Wales. Partly because of the NHS scandal, the local Tories believe that they can make gains. It is useful to note that Plaid Cymru has two MPs
Those are the principal battle-grounds, and there is no suggestion of a Labour surge. The final days of hard pounding will be crucial.
The UK has been in strategic retreat since WWII, so the trend has been to cut repeatedly, but that's only justifiable up until the point where any further cuts jeopardise an effective national defence, rather than just limiting a global power projection role.
Anyway, Thatcher bucks the trend. But what you can probably say is that most Conservative governments prevaricate but eventually fund defence when they realise they have to, and there's no alternative.
The weaknesses of that approach then immediately show up with the next subsequent conflict.
You can get 5/1 on this on Betfair, compared to just under 2/1 on Most seats. In the circumstances that Labour win most seats is there really a 60%+ chance they do so on fewer votes?
They hope to "avoid net losses" in Lancashire? How exactly? What on earth could they win to offset the clear losses that are obvious (as confirmed by Ashcroft)?
Gains in Wales? Come off it....
Probabilities of key outcomes
Con most votes: 73%
Lab most votes: 27%
Con most seats: 75%
Lab most seats: 25%
Election forecast implies a larger gap, but not 20% for sure.
Baxter may well do with the old system but UKIP won't gain Orkney
Wales - gains might seem optimistic but holding steady might not - i.e. they lose their Cardiff Seat but gain Brecon.
Their view on the LDs btw:
"they are likely to do better than the polls suggest. But they will be slaughtered in their Lib/Lab marginals."
Just maybe he doesn't wIsh to continue and it's a case of seen that, done that, bought the T-shirt, time to move on to something new - but in reality it's actually quite difficult to quit, especially if you don't want Boris to succeed you.
Lab votes Con seats 2%
Lab votes Lab seats 30%
Con votes Con seats 56.1%
Con votes; Lab Seats 11.9%.
As for Cameron's so called Strategic Defence Review - that really was a set of cuts that did "jeopardise an effective national defence", but he will cut again if he is returned. Note that he went to the NATO conference last year and complained that other members were not meeting the agreed 2% target but has consistently refused to commit to it himself.
That's why the Tory focus on the SNP is going so catastrophically, calamitously wrong.
Why can only a handful of us see this??
And the chart with labour in front of the tories on immigration/asylum,don't believe it.
Are you suggesting the tories adopt some SNP Policies?
And the LD, Lab and UKIPs campaign are pretty dismal too this time.
Overall, therefore, I'd say this is one of the best Tory campaigns of recent elections: the focus on the economy has been consistent, and they've done a good job dampening down potential problem areas such as the NHS and immigration. In addition, canvassing and communication are much better than 2010 - Grant Shapps, for all his faults, has really improved the mechanics.
Oh, and the SNP card is playing extremely well, although that was a free gift from Nicola to help her friend Dave.
Cons Most Votes and Cons Most Seats 8/15
Lab Most Votes and Lab Most Seats 9/4
Cons Most Votes and Lab Most Seats 5
Lab Most Votes and Cons Most Seats 25
I misread your comment but I think you've misread the market.
Lab votes, Lab seats at 4-1 would indeed be a rick and a half. 9-4 gives a 2.3% 'gap' to Lab seats, Con votes which is poor.
I think you are wrong - using SNP as a scare tactic will play well for the tories.
Is there any polling on this issue?
He's clearly (still) very affected by how he thinks he screwed up the GE2010 campaign, and has developed a real nervous complex about this one now too, particularly since his back's up against the wall.
As far as the last few weeks have gone, he's been the invisible man.
The tory record on immigration is rubbish, for a party that is supposed to be...er.....conservative.
People expect labour to let loads in.
Good idea, but to do that there would need to be a government in Libya that the EU nations could deal with and we bombed the last one out of existence. Another one of Cameron's great ideas.
Yes I agree cut off the source and send any that make it back
Really fascinating piece. Great read. Thanks to Keiran and OGH for publishing it.
Hark, hark, the dogs do bark,
The beggars are coming to town.
CRAZY.
That can't hurt the Tories down here.
Libya was embroiled in civil war with Gaddafi bragging about a genocide. The situation there now is terrible. There's no guarantee it wouldn't be as bad if the West hadn't gotten involved [ISIS may have taken over the opposition anyway].
I agree with the basic plan of a processing centre in North Africa. Tunisia/Morocco could work.
I think it is a pretty reasonable tactic from Tories. As the incumbents their basic argument has to be 'don't ruin it', 'keep hold of nurse' etc etc. Anything that spreads idea that 'après mois le deluge' fits right into that surely?
A Stirling Tory has finally come out and announced he will be voting tactically for SLAB.
https://medium.com/@chrisdeerin/why-i-will-vote-labour-b058b17e042f
This normal voter happens to be writing articles for the Daily Mail and even had the opportunity to discuss his devious plan with the great man himself, I mean David Cameron not Jim Murphy.
To quote the Tory candidate in Gordon:
"Colin Clark, the Tory candidate in the seat, accused Ms Jardine of "desperation" and said her tactics were motivated by the collapse of her core vote. "Nationally the Liberals are polling at four per cent," he said. "People who are voting tactically for them are under false pretences, their own core vote has disappeared. That's true in Gordon just like it is everywhere else. Tactical voting is the saviour of a party with no policies".
More immigration = pressure on public services,schools,hospitals and housing.
Don't see you living in inner city Bradford any time soon.
Our spending is very high in real terms and when compared to other countries. We are investing heavily in the latest defence equipment. We are an active part of NATO. We are going to replace Trident provided we have a tory majority. Amazing the sneers the tories get from you when if there is any other result other than a tory majority our strategic role in the world (which if you had a brain is the key to our national defence) is bu##ered.
My criticism of this campaign isn't the message (I think the Tories are playing their strongest cards) it's the complacency and energy.