Have you even read the article, you halfbaked turnip? He's paying you a compliment.
I was merely commenting on him. If you look I did read and comment on the article elsewhere, surprisingly decent for him , not normal and must be down to his excitement at his Auntie meeting Alex and Nicola at the weekend. He is however still a complete tw**.
Heh - I just thought it was a good chance to insult you in your usual style. It seems that you respond positively to that
Well, that's made my day ICM still leading with Tories.
Haha that's because they always give them a good score!
Not always. Labour led in 11 out of 12 ICM polls in 2014, and also led 33/30 in the January ICM.
Even if we assume last week's poll was an outlier, there's been a clear shift to the Conservatives with ICM.
My guess is that on the day the Tories will lead by around 5% (36-31) with the SNP doing exceptionally well. What would be the likley composition of the Commons?
The Tories might be close to a majority on those figures, if the Lib Dems had got completely annihilated.
Why did the last defence review not start with strategy? Why would the next one if Cameron and Osborn are still in charge?
Because Cameron's style is very much to delegate. In many cases - welfare, education - that has proven a dramatic success. In a few cases, most notably defence in 2010, the minister given the delegated responsibility didn't do a good job.
So cutting defence spending was actually a MoD decision?
Didn't you know ?
Less is more and black is the new white and the Conservatives never make a mistake.
BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS **** BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS **** And the best till last ....
There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.
The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.
Generally looks about right. But even on those optimistic CCO figures that only gets them to about 292-296 seats. Amusing that CCO expect Labour to lose more seats in Scotland than they actually have. Does Murphy count as two?
Love the 'under the radar' gain. Birmingham Northfield, please.
I know the under the radar gain but that specific seat info was given in confidence. The other potential gain is more obvious.
There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.
The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.
Changing tack on the debates would leave Cameron looking ridiculous, IMO.
He's made his choice (not to go head to head) now he has to stick with it.
Hope the black pudding doesn't cause any blockages to Jack's ARSE...
If the circumstance change and demand it's strange how firm positions become somewhat looser.
""My view on the SNP "threat" is that it resonates well in Surrey Heath but is barely an issue anywhere else. Indeed, the reception Sturgeon is getting is probably undermining every single Sturgeon with Ed in pocket billboard poster appearing in every northern working class Tory held marginal. I mentioned the one on the main st in Colne (Pendle) last week - I think many in Colne are looking at that as a prospectus and thinking "I quite like the sound of that, how do I vote for her?"
That's why the Tory focus on the SNP is going so catastrophically, calamitously wrong.
Why can only a handful of us see this??""
There is a strange love affair between some of the English and the SNP which is hard to fathom. The SNP are highly political and only look after themselves. If you are a Scot who does not agree with them then you are ostracised at every junction. If something goes wrong then it is always the fault of the b...dy English.
What amazes me is that it is only the Tories who have the guts to take them head on whilst Labour seem to think they can be their friends. I had a Scottish Labour leaflet today which attacked the Tories / Coalition in 4 sections while ignored the SNP. The only way that Labour will hold their seat is convincing the 20% who support Lib Dems / Tories to help them. Guess what the result of our seat will be.
The Tory campaign is weak but I see their attack on the SNP as the only area where they actually are showing strength. Much better than trying to bribe the electorate with their own money.
LOL, how can anyone be so out of touch with reality and claim to actually live in Scotland
Well, that's made my day ICM still leading with Tories.
Haha that's because they always give them a good score!
Not always. Labour led in 11 out of 12 ICM polls in 2014, and also led 33/30 in the January ICM.
Even if we assume last week's poll was an outlier, there's been a clear shift to the Conservatives with ICM.
My guess is that on the day the Tories will lead by around 5% (36-31) with the SNP doing exceptionally well. What would be the likley composition of the Commons?
You're looking at another Con-Lib coalition (and I don't accept all the blether about the LDs not going into coalition with the Tories again).
Well, that's made my day ICM still leading with Tories.
Haha that's because they always give them a good score!
Not always. Labour led in 11 out of 12 ICM polls in 2014, and also led 33/30 in the January ICM.
Even if we assume last week's poll was an outlier, there's been a clear shift to the Conservatives with ICM.
My guess is that on the day the Tories will lead by around 5% (36-31) with the SNP doing exceptionally well. What would be the likley composition of the Commons?
The Tories might be close to a majority on those figures, if the Lib Dems had got completely annihilated.
Thanks but I don't belive the Libs will suffer that apocalpyse....perhaps they'll end up between 30 and 35?
Polls averaging out at level pegging. Apart from the +6 outliers for Lab and Con reverting to mean, the polls say level pegging the minor parties' shares affecting the numbers of the 'big 2'.
There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.
The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.
Changing tack on the debates would leave Cameron looking ridiculous, IMO.
He's made his choice (not to go head to head) now he has to stick with it.
Hope the black pudding doesn't cause any blockages to Jack's ARSE...
When was the last time PM and LOTO went 'head to head in a TV debate? We have had a debate. Because of an attempt to stuff Cameron by confronting him with UKIP but leaving out the Greens (ie not a repeat of last time's 3-way), this debate was a pointless 7-way.
As for Clegg - he is going round the country looking a bit like Pam Ewing, pretending the last 5 years never happened.
Well, that's made my day ICM still leading with Tories.
Haha that's because they always give them a good score!
Not always. Labour led in 11 out of 12 ICM polls in 2014, and also led 33/30 in the January ICM.
Even if we assume last week's poll was an outlier, there's been a clear shift to the Conservatives with ICM.
My guess is that on the day the Tories will lead by around 5% (36-31) with the SNP doing exceptionally well. What would be the likley composition of the Commons?
320 Conservative seats, according to Baxter, if we assume Lib Dems on 10%, and UKIP on 11%.
There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.
The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.
lol. Some of us have been predicting this for about a year, and didn't need a fry-up with Ossie to discern the irresistible logic. Cameron is the underdog: underdogs need debates.
You've been predicting every possible option every time a new poll springs up. Consistency isn't your strong point.
Preparation H Block, I fully expect the DUP to be as much a pain in the arse as the SNP.
Of course H Blocks were built under a Labour government and what with Nun basher Tristram on the loose it's all looking good for a Labour - DUP alliance.
On topic: thanks for the article on the previous thread. Very interesting.
Re the SNP. Is there a risk of hubris, particularly among Scottish voters? Is Ms Sturgeon taking Scottish voters for granted? And could there be a swing back to SLAB, as a result? I'd be interested in the views of our Scottish posters.
Not a chance of it , will be few changing their minds if any.
I think the main risk for the SNP is that turnout is low, much lower than predicted. It is becoming deeply uncool to be political again.
The Scotsman had an interesting poll in the paper today saying that students in Glasgow are voting SNP, in Edinburgh Green and Labour and in St Andrews Conservative. Worthwhile remembering that Scotland is a large area with many different regions who will not vote all the same way. No polls to split the SNP vote by region but they may well pile up votes in Dundee and Glasgow but do less well in Aberdeen and Edinburgh.
There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.
The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.
lol. Some of us have been predicting this for about a year, and didn't need a fry-up with Ossie to discern the irresistible logic. Cameron is the underdog: underdogs need debates.
You've been predicting every possible option every time a new poll springs up. Consistency isn't your strong point.
I make about eight predictions a day, of wildly varying utility, then I make some more when I'm drunk.
But then I make OFFICIAL predictions which I stand by.
My OFFICIAL predictions called the last election right, the AV referendum right, indyref right, and both US prez elex right (though the US stuff wasn't hard).
I also predicted the post-defeat SNP surge, unforeseen by almost all....
2015 is proving to be the toughest of all to predict with any accuracy. But I've made my best attempt.
Your mood swings give me whiplash.
I'll never forget your wailing when that YouGov had Yes ahead.
There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.
The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.
lol. Some of us have been predicting this for about a year, and didn't need a fry-up with Ossie to discern the irresistible logic. Cameron is the underdog: underdogs need debates.
You've been predicting every possible option every time a new poll springs up. Consistency isn't your strong point.
I make about eight predictions a day, of wildly varying utility, then I make some more when I'm drunk.
But then I make OFFICIAL predictions which I stand by.
My OFFICIAL predictions called the last election right, the AV referendum right, indyref right, and both US prez elex right (though the US stuff wasn't hard).
I also predicted the post-defeat SNP surge, unforeseen by almost all....
2015 is proving to be the toughest of all to predict with any accuracy. But I've made my best attempt.
Your mood swings give me whiplash.
I'll never forget your wailing when that YouGov had Yes ahead.
You'd have been terrible in the trenches.
He'd have been shot for desertion....by both sides
Well I did enjoy this mornings effort by BBC Radio Jockland wheeling in Prof Curtice to explain to the rebellious barbarian hordes the why and the how of voting tactically. Its shameless effort at subversion back fired on them though when the pedantic Prof said tactical voting was an utter waste of time as the SNP was so far ahead. I almost crashed the car. He might not be getting invited back any time soon if he keeps that up.
If @jungland is lurking - I'd love to know what is going on with your Stirling market. Its was suspended several times over the last few days and has now been withdrawn completely.
Here's an interesting thing. Natalie Bennett lives in my constituency, and is standing as an MP here (Holborn & St Pancras).
Her address is on the postal voting slip (I already voted as I might be out the country for the GE itself). I've also noticed that it is freely available to view on Google.
I admire her for this (if nothing else). It also enables me to reveal that her home is, according to Zoopla, worth £362,147
She must be the poorest of all the "major party" leaders. She's also, very clearly, on the wrong side of the Camden tracks.
Go on, you know you want to tell us. Who did you vote for?
Here's an interesting thing. Natalie Bennett lives in my constituency, and is standing as an MP here (Holborn & St Pancras).
Her address is on the postal voting slip (I already voted as I might be out the country for the GE itself). I've also noticed that it is freely available to view on Google.
I admire her for this (if nothing else). It also enables me to reveal that her home is, according to Zoopla, worth £362,147
She must be the poorest of all the "major party" leaders. She's also, very clearly, on the wrong side of the Camden tracks.
If ICM is correct then labour are only 3% above what they achieved in 2010. You would imagine from the tone of the thread that Labour are doing great???!!!
Here's an interesting thing. Natalie Bennett lives in my constituency, and is the Green PPC here (Holborn & St Pancras).
Her address is on the postal voting slip (I already voted as I might be out the country for the GE itself). I've also noticed that it is freely available to view on Google.
I admire her for this (if nothing else). It also enables me to reveal that her home is, according to Zoopla, worth £362,147
She must be the poorest of all the "major party" leaders. She's also, very clearly, on the wrong side of the Camden tracks.
If @jungland is lurking - I'd love to know what is going on with your Stirling market. Its was suspended several times over the last few days and has now been withdrawn completely.
Here's an interesting thing. Natalie Bennett lives in my constituency, and is the Green PPC here (Holborn & St Pancras).
Her address is on the postal voting slip (I already voted as I might be out the country for the GE itself). I've also noticed that it is freely available to view on Google.
I admire her for this (if nothing else). It also enables me to reveal that her home is, according to Zoopla, worth £362,147
She must be the poorest of all the "major party" leaders. She's also, very clearly, on the wrong side of the Camden tracks.
Guido Fawkes' had a blog entry on her partner earlier. He doesn't seem like a very pleasant man.
Preparation H Block, I fully expect the DUP to be as much a pain in the arse as the SNP.
Of course H Blocks were built under a Labour government and what with Nun basher Tristram on the loose it's all looking good for a Labour - DUP alliance.
That reminds me of Ian Hislop's spoof Home and Garden piece in Private Eye.
"Mr. Sands has decorated his apartment in a delicate shade of pastel brown. "I find it very soothing and relaxing" he tells me."
Mr. Sykes, worth noting all polls have a certain fuzziness, and every so often one will just be plain wrong.
Four consecutive Con leads (3, 3, 6, 2), although the direction of travel in the latest is not good for them. As I said below, surprised UKIP rose from 7 to 11.
Edited extra bit: is this the penultimate ICM poll? Presumably they'll have one on the eve of the election.
No doubt before the onset of daily polls the weekly movements of say ICM would have been considered epic. But with polls coming out daily or 2ce weekly we see they are kin effect always all over the place. The truth has been the same since 2010 - voting UKIP gives us Labour, only it will be a Labour dominated by a far left SNP, only too keen to peddle the long held anti nuclear prejudices of its leadership and new ex-labour activists.
If ICM is correct then labour are only 3% above what they achieved in 2010. You would imagine from the tone of the thread that Labour are doing great???!!!
In fact, only 2% above their 2010 vote share, in Great Britain. But, under FPTP, standing still is fine if your opponent falls back.
If ICM is correct then labour are only 3% above what they achieved in 2010. You would imagine from the tone of the thread that Labour are doing great???!!!
Isn't that slightly worrying when the Tories are down 2% and they didn't even get a majority last time?
On topic: thanks for the article on the previous thread. Very interesting.
Re the SNP. Is there a risk of hubris, particularly among Scottish voters? Is Ms Sturgeon taking Scottish voters for granted? And could there be a swing back to SLAB, as a result? I'd be interested in the views of our Scottish posters.
Not a chance of it , will be few changing their minds if any.
I think the main risk for the SNP is that turnout is low, much lower than predicted. It is becoming deeply uncool to be political again.
The Scotsman had an interesting poll in the paper today saying that students in Glasgow are voting SNP, in Edinburgh Green and Labour and in St Andrews Conservative. Worthwhile remembering that Scotland is a large area with many different regions who will not vote all the same way. No polls to split the SNP vote by region but they may well pile up votes in Dundee and Glasgow but do less well in Aberdeen and Edinburgh.
Always a risk but I think turnout will be high compared to previous. I would not believe anything in the Scotsman , it is worse than the Daily Record. For sure it is not going to be a good election for labour, that is almost certain.
Today's ICM is, except for the Conservatives/Others figures what I predicted for the result nearly two weeks ago and which I have placed in my work's prediction league:
Conservative 37% Labour 32% UKIP 11% Lib Dem 10% Green 5% Others 5%
I went for Conservatives getting about 319 seats, but acknowledged it could be Tory maj, Tory minority or Lib-Con coalition dependent on where the votes fall.
I am sticking to this at the moment, but we get a round two of our prediction league in the final week and for now I would likely put the Cons down to 36% and others up to 6%.
In terms of shy voters as discussed earlier, I can only struggle to make a case for the notion of the shy Labour voter outside of Scotland; why would they not be open about voting Labour? But shy LD, Con, UKIP and Lab in Scotland seem sensible ideas to me.
Labour 3% behind in England and Wales from the ICM tables. Scotland is distorting the headline figures into making the situation look worse for Labour than it is.
Dire for SLAB, not so bad for English/Welsh Labour.
Here's an interesting thing. Natalie Bennett lives in my constituency, and is the Green PPC here (Holborn & St Pancras).
Her address is on the postal voting slip (I already voted as I might be out the country for the GE itself). I've also noticed that it is freely available to view on Google.
I admire her for this (if nothing else). It also enables me to reveal that her home is, according to Zoopla, worth £362,147
She must be the poorest of all the "major party" leaders. She's also, very clearly, on the wrong side of the Camden tracks.
Guido Fawkes' had a blog entry on her partner earlier. He doesn't seem like a very pleasant man.
Here's an interesting thing. Natalie Bennett lives in my constituency, and is the Green PPC here (Holborn & St Pancras).
Her address is on the postal voting slip (I already voted as I might be out the country for the GE itself). I've also noticed that it is freely available to view on Google.
I admire her for this (if nothing else). It also enables me to reveal that her home is, according to Zoopla, worth £362,147
She must be the poorest of all the "major party" leaders. She's also, very clearly, on the wrong side of the Camden tracks.
Oh dear, not in Primrose Hill, just like you.
Following the construction of Solstice Point (my next door neighbour), Primrose Hill has now officially been extended to the top of Parkway and Delancey, at least by the estate agents and their pricing.
Here's an interesting thing. Natalie Bennett lives in my constituency, and is the Green PPC here (Holborn & St Pancras).
Her address is on the postal voting slip (I already voted as I might be out the country for the GE itself). I've also noticed that it is freely available to view on Google.
I admire her for this (if nothing else). It also enables me to reveal that her home is, according to Zoopla, worth £362,147
She must be the poorest of all the "major party" leaders. She's also, very clearly, on the wrong side of the Camden tracks.
Guido Fawkes' had a blog entry on her partner earlier. He doesn't seem like a very pleasant man.
Here's an interesting thing. Natalie Bennett lives in my constituency, and is the Green PPC here (Holborn & St Pancras).
Her address is on the postal voting slip (I already voted as I might be out the country for the GE itself). I've also noticed that it is freely available to view on Google.
I admire her for this (if nothing else). It also enables me to reveal that her home is, according to Zoopla, worth £362,147
She must be the poorest of all the "major party" leaders. She's also, very clearly, on the wrong side of the Camden tracks.
Oh dear, not in Primrose Hill, just like you.
Following the construction of Solstice Point (my next door neighbour), Primrose Hill has now officially been extended to the top of Parkway and Delancey, at least by the estate agents and their pricing.
To be fair, as a bloke who all he has done is work in politics, he isn't exactly down wit da kids...but the "what is Vice News, what do you do?"...was a cracker. Errhhh we report on news and stuff...
from BBC: SNP will represent UK interests, leader Nicola Sturgeon says
Nicola Sturgeon seems to have become increasingly arrogant about her parties ability to dictate to rUK after the GE. Surely this will be a major turn off for English DK voters and will sure up the Tory vote south of the border. That a Scottish Party could hold England to ransom is an anathema to English voters
There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.
The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.
lol. Some of us have been predicting this for about a year, and didn't need a fry-up with Ossie to discern the irresistible logic. Cameron is the underdog: underdogs need debates.
You've been predicting every possible option every time a new poll springs up. Consistency isn't your strong point.
I make about eight predictions a day, of wildly varying utility, then I make some more when I'm drunk.
But then I make OFFICIAL predictions which I stand by.
My OFFICIAL predictions called the last election right, the AV referendum right, indyref right, and both US prez elex right (though the US stuff wasn't hard).
I also predicted the post-defeat SNP surge, unforeseen by almost all....
2015 is proving to be the toughest of all to predict with any accuracy. But I've made my best attempt.
Some mere mortals and myself might find it a wee bit tricky to discern your drunken or sober or OFFICIAL predictions from each other.
Is there a patent PB device that is able to detect the political drivel (Patent Nigel Farage) from the searingly precise Sean Thomas offerings ?
BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS **** BREAKING BREAKFAST BRIEFING NEWS **** And the best till last ....
There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.
The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.
Generally looks about right. But even on those optimistic CCO figures that only gets them to about 292-296 seats. Amusing that CCO expect Labour to lose more seats in Scotland than they actually have. Does Murphy count as two?
Love the 'under the radar' gain. Birmingham Northfield, please.
I know the under the radar gain but that specific seat info was given in confidence. The other potential gain is more obvious.
Are you saying that this is an 'under the radar' win which could be set to be the Lembit Opik moment of 2015? A seat with odds of 10-20?
B'ham Edgbaston? Not really. The Labour MP is popular and the Tory odds are 'only' 6.
Otherwise, it must be a far away suburban or rural seat of which I know little. Scotland or northern England? It is changing demographically which counters the forecast slight swing to Labour. It has a dud MP.
A three-way marginal where the winning Tory relies on a vote split 35/30/30% between Tory/Lib./SNP? Or a three-way marginal which the SNP makes into a four-way marginal and Tories win on 25%?
Here's an interesting thing. Natalie Bennett lives in my constituency, and is the Green PPC here (Holborn & St Pancras).
Her address is on the postal voting slip (I already voted as I might be out the country for the GE itself). I've also noticed that it is freely available to view on Google.
I admire her for this (if nothing else). It also enables me to reveal that her home is, according to Zoopla, worth £362,147
She must be the poorest of all the "major party" leaders. She's also, very clearly, on the wrong side of the Camden tracks.
Guido Fawkes' had a blog entry on her partner earlier. He doesn't seem like a very pleasant man.
His comments are without a doubt disturbing. Even being charitable about him, you must ask why does he feel the need to go on about it.
Here's an interesting thing. Natalie Bennett lives in my constituency, and is the Green PPC here (Holborn & St Pancras).
Her address is on the postal voting slip (I already voted as I might be out the country for the GE itself). I've also noticed that it is freely available to view on Google.
I admire her for this (if nothing else). It also enables me to reveal that her home is, according to Zoopla, worth £362,147
She must be the poorest of all the "major party" leaders. She's also, very clearly, on the wrong side of the Camden tracks.
Oh dear, not in Primrose Hill, just like you.
Following the construction of Solstice Point (my next door neighbour), Primrose Hill has now officially been extended to the top of Parkway and Delancey, at least by the estate agents and their pricing.
Bonkers isn't it? My 5 bedroom house, with 3/8 acre garden is worth about half that. That would get me a cupboard in London.
It is bonkers from a UK perspective, less bonkers when you think of London as another world city competing with NYC, Paris, Hong Kong, Tokyo. Those cities have fairly similar prices.
And let's see if London property pricing survives a Miliband government. I know many would love to see it crash, but if it does the crash will then extend to the rest of the UK. which will be less funny for the London-haters.
Why would that be less funny, the whole UK housing market is just pure overvalued bollocks.
On topic: thanks for the article on the previous thread. Very interesting.
Re the SNP. Is there a risk of hubris, particularly among Scottish voters? Is Ms Sturgeon taking Scottish voters for granted? And could there be a swing back to SLAB, as a result? I'd be interested in the views of our Scottish posters.
Not a chance of it , will be few changing their minds if any.
Yet London is about to vote heavily Labour. I confess I have no obvious idea why.
Because the 20 and 30-something people who are getting and doing these new jobs are not getting anywhere. They face utterly impossible property prices, extortionate rents, huge travelling costs and 5 quid a pint.
They are, in effect slaves to big companies, central government and rich foreign rent seekers. And, unless something is done, they always will be.
Ed Miliband represents doing something. Most of the young workers who work for us realise it isn;t the right something.
There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.
The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.
lol. Some of us have been predicting this for about a year, and didn't need a fry-up with Ossie to discern the irresistible logic. Cameron is the underdog: underdogs need debates.
You've been predicting every possible option every time a new poll springs up. Consistency isn't your strong point.
How was yor breakfast? Enlightening?
A full English is excellent value .... especially if you're not paying.
Here's an interesting thing. Natalie Bennett lives in my constituency, and is the Green PPC here (Holborn & St Pancras).
Her address is on the postal voting slip (I already voted as I might be out the country for the GE itself). I've also noticed that it is freely available to view on Google.
I admire her for this (if nothing else). It also enables me to reveal that her home is, according to Zoopla, worth £362,147
She must be the poorest of all the "major party" leaders. She's also, very clearly, on the wrong side of the Camden tracks.
"...a UKIP insider told Breitbart London that Labour have “taken either eye off the ball” in a number of areas that were previously considered safe. UKIP bosses are now expecting a number of shock results on 7th May that will dent Labour’s dominance in Northern England.
So far the pundits suggested UKIP were in contention in Rotherham, Heywood and Grimsby. Labour responded by running major campaigns in the seats, hoping to thwart UKIP plans. However, there are now believed to be up to five other seats in contention, but they are not receiving support from Labour HQ as it’s unaware of the risk."
Yet London is about to vote heavily Labour. I confess I have no obvious idea why.
Because the 20 and 30-something people who are getting and doing these new jobs are not getting anywhere. They face utterly impossible property prices, extortionate rents, huge travelling costs and 5 quid a pint.
They are, in effect slaves to big companies central government and rich foreign rent seekers. And, unless something is done, they always will be.
Ed Miliband represents doing something. Most of the young workers who work for us realise it isn;t the right something.
But it is something
The crazy thing is that if Milliband crashes the Economy, they will be some of the first to be laid off.
"...a UKIP insider told Breitbart London that Labour have “taken either eye off the ball” in a number of areas that were previously considered safe. UKIP bosses are now expecting a number of shock results on 7th May that will dent Labour’s dominance in Northern England.
So far the pundits suggested UKIP were in contention in Rotherham, Heywood and Grimsby. Labour responded by running major campaigns in the seats, hoping to thwart UKIP plans. However, there are now believed to be up to five other seats in contention, but they are not receiving support from Labour HQ as it’s unaware of the risk."
We have heard this before. Rotherham...given all the shit storm that has gone on, first chance they had to kick Labour out (elected plod), what did they do, elected them again.
from BBC: SNP will represent UK interests, leader Nicola Sturgeon says
Nicola Sturgeon seems to have become increasingly arrogant about her parties ability to dictate to rUK after the GE. Surely this will be a major turn off for English DK voters and will sure up the Tory vote south of the border. That a Scottish Party could hold England to ransom is an anathema to English voters
She, the SNP, has no right to consider at all those English only issues which are devolved to Scotland. What right has Sturgeon to vote on the English NHS?
Yet London is about to vote heavily Labour. I confess I have no obvious idea why.
Because the 20 and 30-something people who are getting and doing these new jobs are not getting anywhere. They face utterly impossible property prices, extortionate rents, huge travelling costs and 5 quid a pint.
They are, in effect slaves to big companies, central government and rich foreign rent seekers. And, unless something is done, they always will be.
Ed Miliband represents doing something. Most of the young workers who work for us realise it isn;t the right something.
But it is something
Until Central Government (and all its extended services and departments) are willing to move out of London, this isn't going to change regardless of who is in power.
"...a UKIP insider told Breitbart London that Labour have “taken either eye off the ball” in a number of areas that were previously considered safe. UKIP bosses are now expecting a number of shock results on 7th May that will dent Labour’s dominance in Northern England.
So far the pundits suggested UKIP were in contention in Rotherham, Heywood and Grimsby. Labour responded by running major campaigns in the seats, hoping to thwart UKIP plans. However, there are now believed to be up to five other seats in contention, but they are not receiving support from Labour HQ as it’s unaware of the risk."
There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.
The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.
lol. Some of us have been predicting this for about a year, and didn't need a fry-up with Ossie to discern the irresistible logic. Cameron is the underdog: underdogs need debates.
You've been predicting every possible option every time a new poll springs up. Consistency isn't your strong point.
I make about eight predictions a day, of wildly varying utility, then I make some more when I'm drunk.
But then I make OFFICIAL predictions which I stand by.
My OFFICIAL predictions called the last election right, the AV referendum right, indyref right, and both US prez elex right (though the US stuff wasn't hard).
I also predicted the post-defeat SNP surge, unforeseen by almost all....
2015 is proving to be the toughest of all to predict with any accuracy. But I've made my best attempt.
Some mere mortals and myself might find it a wee bit tricky to discern your drunken or sober or OFFICIAL predictions from each other.
Is there a patent PB device that is able to detect the political drivel (Patent Nigel Farage) from the searingly precise Sean Thomas offerings ?
Er, yes. I say "This is my Official Tom Knox (or, of late S K Tremayne) Prediction for Blah de Blah"
Really. That's what I do, so as to separate my considered view from what I readily confess are a lot of drunken burblings, in the main.
Excellent.
Might I suggest you append your unofficial drunken/sober "burblings" accordingly. We wouldn't wish the unwary or PB newcomers to mistake such ravings as some variety of Rogerdamus-lite musings.
''The crazy thing is that if Milliband crashes the Economy, they will be some of the first to be out of work.''
Maybe - but many are prepared to take the risk ed will crash the property market and they will keep their job.
Property prices and rents are so high that young workers cannot envisage a day when they will ever be well off. Not ever. Not when they are 60. So there is no reason to vote tory.
We're not talking about barristas here. We're talking about well educated kids from nice middle class families with degrees in law and business.
Maybe David Cameron needed his 2015 'quattro' moment and it looks like the SNP may have fired his cylinders. He was very forceful this pm and has committed today to an annual review of whether or not RUK is getting as fair a deal as Scotland
from BBC: SNP will represent UK interests, leader Nicola Sturgeon says
Nicola Sturgeon seems to have become increasingly arrogant about her parties ability to dictate to rUK after the GE. Surely this will be a major turn off for English DK voters and will sure up the Tory vote south of the border. That a Scottish Party could hold England to ransom is an anathema to English voters
It's almost as if they are trying to engineer (or at least ensure) a situation where they hold the balance of power or something. She's Machiavellian, that one.
There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.
The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.
lol. Some of us have been predicting this for about a year, and didn't need a fry-up with Ossie to discern the irresistible logic. Cameron is the underdog: underdogs need debates.
You've been predicting every possible option every time a new poll springs up. Consistency isn't your strong point.
How was yor breakfast? Enlightening?
A full English is excellent value .... especially if you're not paying.
Doing a quick roundup of yougov&ICM. I see that if you simply apply the error from the last 2010 yougov on today's 2010 voters yougov survey then that should be LAB 33, CON 31, LD 6, IF the 2010 error has not been corrected, however size does not equal accuracy.
As for ICM, the last poll was an outlier, everyone could see that, so it's reversion to mean.
However it is remarkable to see that the Tory loses to UKIP have been exactly matched by 2010 LD&LAB, but even if the Tories get all the 2010 CON who say D/K they would still be at 33%.
Here's an interesting thing. Natalie Bennett lives in my constituency, and is the Green PPC here (Holborn & St Pancras).
Her address is on the postal voting slip (I already voted as I might be out the country for the GE itself). I've also noticed that it is freely available to view on Google.
I admire her for this (if nothing else). It also enables me to reveal that her home is, according to Zoopla, worth £362,147
She must be the poorest of all the "major party" leaders. She's also, very clearly, on the wrong side of the Camden tracks.
"...a UKIP insider told Breitbart London that Labour have “taken either eye off the ball” in a number of areas that were previously considered safe. UKIP bosses are now expecting a number of shock results on 7th May that will dent Labour’s dominance in Northern England.
So far the pundits suggested UKIP were in contention in Rotherham, Heywood and Grimsby. Labour responded by running major campaigns in the seats, hoping to thwart UKIP plans. However, there are now believed to be up to five other seats in contention, but they are not receiving support from Labour HQ as it’s unaware of the risk."
Because the whole UK economy is based on the property market. If it crashed, and millions fell into negative equity, we'd have a massive recession, indeed possibly a depression, as consumer confidence collapsed and spending stopped overnight.
Was that too hard to work out?
That depends on how you view it. When is the best time to pull the plug on any Ponzi scheme? There is a good argument that the SE property market needs killed sooner rather than later. Of course it is unlikely to happen due to the short term political consequences.
"...a UKIP insider told Breitbart London that Labour have “taken either eye off the ball” in a number of areas that were previously considered safe. UKIP bosses are now expecting a number of shock results on 7th May that will dent Labour’s dominance in Northern England.
So far the pundits suggested UKIP were in contention in Rotherham, Heywood and Grimsby. Labour responded by running major campaigns in the seats, hoping to thwart UKIP plans. However, there are now believed to be up to five other seats in contention, but they are not receiving support from Labour HQ as it’s unaware of the risk."
That reads to me like UKIP not doing as well as they hoped in Rotherham, Heywood and Grimsby.
There was a Labour private poll of Hull (?) tweeted by a journalist the other day that seemed to show UKIP in contention. That sort of supports the article.
from BBC: SNP will represent UK interests, leader Nicola Sturgeon says
Nicola Sturgeon seems to have become increasingly arrogant about her parties ability to dictate to rUK after the GE. Surely this will be a major turn off for English DK voters and will sure up the Tory vote south of the border. That a Scottish Party could hold England to ransom is an anathema to English voters
She, the SNP, has no right to consider at all those English only issues which are devolved to Scotland. What right has Sturgeon to vote on the English NHS?
Scotland decided to lead the UK not leave. Suck it up sonny.
"...a UKIP insider told Breitbart London that Labour have “taken either eye off the ball” in a number of areas that were previously considered safe. UKIP bosses are now expecting a number of shock results on 7th May that will dent Labour’s dominance in Northern England.
So far the pundits suggested UKIP were in contention in Rotherham, Heywood and Grimsby. Labour responded by running major campaigns in the seats, hoping to thwart UKIP plans. However, there are now believed to be up to five other seats in contention, but they are not receiving support from Labour HQ as it’s unaware of the risk."
Here's an interesting thing. Natalie Bennett lives in my constituency, and is the Green PPC here (Holborn & St Pancras).
Her address is on the postal voting slip (I already voted as I might be out the country for the GE itself). I've also noticed that it is freely available to view on Google.
I admire her for this (if nothing else). It also enables me to reveal that her home is, according to Zoopla, worth £362,147
She must be the poorest of all the "major party" leaders. She's also, very clearly, on the wrong side of the Camden tracks.
Oh dear, not in Primrose Hill, just like you.
Following the construction of Solstice Point (my next door neighbour), Primrose Hill has now officially been extended to the top of Parkway and Delancey, at least by the estate agents and their pricing.
Bonkers isn't it? My 5 bedroom house, with 3/8 acre garden is worth about half that. That would get me a cupboard in London.
It is bonkers from a UK perspective, less bonkers when you think of London as another world city competing with NYC, Paris, Hong Kong, Tokyo. Those cities have fairly similar prices.
And let's see if London property pricing survives a Miliband government. I know many would love to see it crash, but if it does the crash will then extend to the rest of the UK. which will be less funny for the London-haters.
Why would that be less funny, the whole UK housing market is just pure overvalued bollocks.
Because the whole UK economy is based on the property market. If it crashed, and millions fell into negative equity, we'd have a massive recession, indeed possibly a depression, as consumer confidence collapsed and spending stopped overnight.
Was that too hard to work out?
We need to rebase house prices in this country so they become more affordable for ordinary people. It will cause a lot of pain or people who over-borrowed (like me) but the long term future would be much brighter if a couple both earning the average wage could afford a house/flat without requiring more than a 4x earning multiplier.
I find it absolutely insane that the value of my two-bed in Shepherds bush has gone up by 60% in two years.
If ICM is correct then labour are only 3% above what they achieved in 2010. You would imagine from the tone of the thread that Labour are doing great???!!!
In fact, only 2% above their 2010 vote share, in Great Britain. But, under FPTP, standing still is fine if your opponent falls back.
The point is that the Lib Dems are down around 15% yet Labour are only up 3%
"...a UKIP insider told Breitbart London that Labour have “taken either eye off the ball” in a number of areas that were previously considered safe. UKIP bosses are now expecting a number of shock results on 7th May that will dent Labour’s dominance in Northern England.
So far the pundits suggested UKIP were in contention in Rotherham, Heywood and Grimsby. Labour responded by running major campaigns in the seats, hoping to thwart UKIP plans. However, there are now believed to be up to five other seats in contention, but they are not receiving support from Labour HQ as it’s unaware of the risk."
That reads to me like UKIP not doing as well as they hoped in Rotherham, Heywood and Grimsby.
There was a Labour private poll of Hull (?) tweeted by a journalist the other day that seemed to show UKIP in contention. That sort of supports the article.
Wasn't the fieldwork for that Hull poll done over a 6 month period or something?
Also I presume Breitbart News UK is about as reputable and sound as its US cousin??
Here's an interesting thing. Natalie Bennett lives in my constituency, and is the Green PPC here (Holborn & St Pancras).
Her address is on the postal voting slip (I already voted as I might be out the country for the GE itself). I've also noticed that it is freely available to view on Google.
I admire her for this (if nothing else). It also enables me to reveal that her home is, according to Zoopla, worth £362,147
She must be the poorest of all the "major party" leaders. She's also, very clearly, on the wrong side of the Camden tracks.
Oh dear, not in Primrose Hill, just like you.
Following the construction of Solstice Point (my next door neighbour), Primrose Hill has now officially been extended to the top of Parkway and Delancey, at least by the estate agents and their pricing.
Bonkers isn't it? My 5 bedroom house, with 3/8 acre garden is worth about half that. That would get me a cupboard in London.
It is bonkers from a UK perspective, less bonkers when you think of London as another world city competing with NYC, Paris, Hong Kong, Tokyo. Those cities have fairly similar prices.
And let's see if London property pricing survives a Miliband government. I know many would love to see it crash, but if it does the crash will then extend to the rest of the UK. which will be less funny for the London-haters.
Why would that be less funny, the whole UK housing market is just pure overvalued bollocks.
Because the whole UK economy is based on the property market. If it crashed, and millions fell into negative equity, we'd have a massive recession, indeed possibly a depression, as consumer confidence collapsed and spending stopped overnight.
Was that too hard to work out?
Question from the audience. Where does the money to buy houses come from?
If everyone spends all their money to buy houses they wont have any left to buy anything else.
Here's an interesting thing. Natalie Bennett lives in my constituency, and is the Green PPC here (Holborn & St Pancras).
Her address is on the postal voting slip (I already voted as I might be out the country for the GE itself). I've also noticed that it is freely available to view on Google.
I admire her for this (if nothing else). It also enables me to reveal that her home is, according to Zoopla, worth £362,147
She must be the poorest of all the "major party" leaders. She's also, very clearly, on the wrong side of the Camden tracks.
Oh dear, not in Primrose Hill, just like you.
Following the construction of Solstice Point (my next door neighbour), Primrose Hill has now officially been extended to the top of Parkway and Delancey, at least by the estate agents and their pricing.
Bonkers isn't it? My 5 bedroom house, with 3/8 acre garden is worth about half that. That would get me a cupboard in London.
It is bonkers from a UK perspective, less bonkers when you think of London as another world city competing with NYC, Paris, Hong Kong, Tokyo. Those cities have fairly similar prices.
And let's see if London property pricing survives a Miliband government. I know many would love to see it crash, but if it does the crash will then extend to the rest of the UK. which will be less funny for the London-haters.
Why would that be less funny, the whole UK housing market is just pure overvalued bollocks.
Because the whole UK economy is based on the property market. If it crashed, and millions fell into negative equity, we'd have a massive recession, indeed possibly a depression, as consumer confidence collapsed and spending stopped overnight.
Was that too hard to work out?
We need to rebase house prices in this country so they become more affordable for ordinary people. It will cause a lot of pain or people who over-borrowed (like me) but the long term future would be much brighter if a couple both earning the average wage could afford a house/flat without requiring more than a 4x earning multiplier.
I find it absolutely insane that the value of my two-bed in Shepherds bush has gone up by 60% in two years.
There is a small but strengthening band of players who, if the situation remain static, believe the PM should accept the Miliband debate gauntlet and turn the QT three way leaders interview into a full scale debate and make it a game changer.
The fly in the ointment is Clegg. Including him risks another Cleggasm, albeit of a more limited nature this time, and excluding him may prove very difficult.
lol. Some of us have been predicting this for about a year, and didn't need a fry-up with Ossie to discern the irresistible logic. Cameron is the underdog: underdogs need debates.
You've been predicting every possible option every time a new poll springs up. Consistency isn't your strong point.
How was yor breakfast? Enlightening?
A full English is excellent value .... especially if you're not paying.
Here's an interesting thing. Natalie Bennett lives in my constituency, and is the Green PPC here (Holborn & St Pancras).
Her address is on the postal voting slip (I already voted as I might be out the country for the GE itself). I've also noticed that it is freely available to view on Google.
I admire her for this (if nothing else). It also enables me to reveal that her home is, according to Zoopla, worth £362,147
She must be the poorest of all the "major party" leaders. She's also, very clearly, on the wrong side of the Camden tracks.
Oh dear, not in Primrose Hill, just like you.
Following the construction of Solstice Point (my next door neighbour), Primrose Hill has now officially been extended to the top of Parkway and Delancey, at least by the estate agents and their pricing.
Bonkers isn't it? My 5 bedroom house, with 3/8 acre garden is worth about half that. That would get me a cupboard in London.
It is bonkers from a UK perspective, less bonkers when you think of London as another world city competing with NYC, Paris, Hong Kong, Tokyo. Those cities have fairly similar prices.
And let's see if London property pricing survives a Miliband government. I know many would love to see it crash, but if it does the crash will then extend to the rest of the UK. which will be less funny for the London-haters.
Why would that be less funny, the whole UK housing market is just pure overvalued bollocks.
Because the whole UK economy is based on the property market. If it crashed, and millions fell into negative equity, we'd have a massive recession, indeed possibly a depression, as consumer confidence collapsed and spending stopped overnight.
Was that too hard to work out?
I think Al is of the "I wouldn't have started from here" persuasion.
Here's an interesting thing. Natalie Bennett lives in my constituency, and is the Green PPC here (Holborn & St Pancras).
Her address is on the postal voting slip (I already voted as I might be out the country for the GE itself). I've also noticed that it is freely available to view on Google.
I admire her for this (if nothing else). It also enables me to reveal that her home is, according to Zoopla, worth £362,147
She must be the poorest of all the "major party" leaders. She's also, very clearly, on the wrong side of the Camden tracks.
Oh dear, not in Primrose Hill, just like you.
Following the construction of Solstice Point (my next door neighbour), Primrose Hill has now officially been extended to the top of Parkway and Delancey, at least by the estate agents and their pricing.
Bonkers isn't it? My 5 bedroom house, with 3/8 acre garden is worth about half that. That would get me a cupboard in London.
It is bonkers from a UK perspective, less bonkers when you think of London as another world city competing with NYC, Paris, Hong Kong, Tokyo. Those cities have fairly similar prices.
And let's see if London property pricing survives a Miliband government. I know many would love to see it crash, but if it does the crash will then extend to the rest of the UK. which will be less funny for the London-haters.
Why would that be less funny, the whole UK housing market is just pure overvalued bollocks.
Because the whole UK economy is based on the property market. If it crashed, and millions fell into negative equity, we'd have a massive recession, indeed possibly a depression, as consumer confidence collapsed and spending stopped overnight.
Was that too hard to work out?
An economy based on asset inflation doesn't deliver wealth. The UK needs to reduce house prices over time and let inflation eat away at them.
"...a UKIP insider told Breitbart London that Labour have “taken either eye off the ball” in a number of areas that were previously considered safe. UKIP bosses are now expecting a number of shock results on 7th May that will dent Labour’s dominance in Northern England.
So far the pundits suggested UKIP were in contention in Rotherham, Heywood and Grimsby. Labour responded by running major campaigns in the seats, hoping to thwart UKIP plans. However, there are now believed to be up to five other seats in contention, but they are not receiving support from Labour HQ as it’s unaware of the risk."
Apparently, the Shetland part of O&S was too SNP leaning, so under the new boundary proposals Orkney & Edinburgh South will be created. This should allow one non SNP representative to be elected each parliament.
Here's an interesting thing. Natalie Bennett lives in my constituency, and is the Green PPC here (Holborn & St Pancras).
Her address is on the postal voting slip (I already voted as I might be out the country for the GE itself). I've also noticed that it is freely available to view on Google.
I admire her for this (if nothing else). It also enables me to reveal that her home is, according to Zoopla, worth £362,147
She must be the poorest of all the "major party" leaders. She's also, very clearly, on the wrong side of the Camden tracks.
Oh dear, not in Primrose Hill, just like you.
*snip for length*
Bonkers isn't it? My 5 bedroom house, with 3/8 acre garden is worth about half that. That would get me a cupboard in London.
*snip for length*.
Why would that be less funny, the whole UK housing market is just pure overvalued bollocks.
Because the whole UK economy is based on the property market. If it crashed, and millions fell into negative equity, we'd have a massive recession, indeed possibly a depression, as consumer confidence collapsed and spending stopped overnight.
Was that too hard to work out?
We need to rebase house prices in this country so they become more affordable for ordinary people. It will cause a lot of pain or people who over-borrowed (like me) but the long term future would be much brighter if a couple both earning the average wage could afford a house/flat without requiring more than a 4x earning multiplier.
I find it absolutely insane that the value of my two-bed in Shepherds bush has gone up by 60% in two years.
The imposition of price controls on a free market always (always!) has a raft of unintended and oftern unforseen consequences. Quality would probably be the first thing to go as builders fought to maintain margins.
[while i own a house, I'm not without sympathy given i have no idea how any of my kids will ever be able to buy a house unless we pop our clogs]
"...a UKIP insider told Breitbart London that Labour have “taken either eye off the ball” in a number of areas that were previously considered safe. UKIP bosses are now expecting a number of shock results on 7th May that will dent Labour’s dominance in Northern England.
So far the pundits suggested UKIP were in contention in Rotherham, Heywood and Grimsby. Labour responded by running major campaigns in the seats, hoping to thwart UKIP plans. However, there are now believed to be up to five other seats in contention, but they are not receiving support from Labour HQ as it’s unaware of the risk."
"...a UKIP insider told Breitbart London that Labour have “taken either eye off the ball” in a number of areas that were previously considered safe. UKIP bosses are now expecting a number of shock results on 7th May that will dent Labour’s dominance in Northern England.
So far the pundits suggested UKIP were in contention in Rotherham, Heywood and Grimsby. Labour responded by running major campaigns in the seats, hoping to thwart UKIP plans. However, there are now believed to be up to five other seats in contention, but they are not receiving support from Labour HQ as it’s unaware of the risk."
That reads to me like UKIP not doing as well as they hoped in Rotherham, Heywood and Grimsby.
There was a Labour private poll of Hull (?) tweeted by a journalist the other day that seemed to show UKIP in contention. That sort of supports the article.
That looked like a forgery to me - not least because of the polling supposedly carried out over 6 months.
"...a UKIP insider told Breitbart London that Labour have “taken either eye off the ball” in a number of areas that were previously considered safe. UKIP bosses are now expecting a number of shock results on 7th May that will dent Labour’s dominance in Northern England.
So far the pundits suggested UKIP were in contention in Rotherham, Heywood and Grimsby. Labour responded by running major campaigns in the seats, hoping to thwart UKIP plans. However, there are now believed to be up to five other seats in contention, but they are not receiving support from Labour HQ as it’s unaware of the risk."
Increase supply, increase taxes on property investment, increase supply. Let the market adjust, introduce protections for people who are meeting their mortgage repayments on time but are in negative equity.
Comments
" LibDem + DUP = Fifty shades of Orange
The future's bright"
Otherwise known as H-Block
Less is more and black is the new white and the Conservatives never make a mistake.
In fact on both counts !!
We have had a debate. Because of an attempt to stuff Cameron by confronting him with UKIP but leaving out the Greens (ie not a repeat of last time's 3-way), this debate was a pointless 7-way.
As for Clegg - he is going round the country looking a bit like Pam Ewing, pretending the last 5 years never happened.
Of course H Blocks were built under a Labour government and what with Nun basher Tristram on the loose it's all looking good for a Labour - DUP alliance.
Plenty of people do that for a living, or at least employ other people to do it for them
The Scotsman had an interesting poll in the paper today saying that students in Glasgow are voting SNP, in Edinburgh Green and Labour and in St Andrews Conservative. Worthwhile remembering that Scotland is a large area with many different regions who will not vote all the same way. No polls to split the SNP vote by region but they may well pile up votes in Dundee and Glasgow but do less well in Aberdeen and Edinburgh.
I'll never forget your wailing when that YouGov had Yes ahead.
You'd have been terrible in the trenches.
Is it likely to return?
Ta muchas.
http://tinyurl.com/LikeACrackWhoreWithHerNewFix
"Mr. Sands has decorated his apartment in a delicate shade of pastel brown. "I find it very soothing and relaxing" he tells me."
The truth has been the same since 2010 - voting UKIP gives us Labour, only it will be a Labour dominated by a far left SNP, only too keen to peddle the long held anti nuclear prejudices of its leadership and new ex-labour activists.
If ICM is correct then labour are only 3% above what they achieved in 2010. You would imagine from the tone of the thread that Labour are doing great???!!!
Isn't that slightly worrying when the Tories are down 2% and they didn't even get a majority last time?
ICM data tables
Conservative 37%
Labour 32%
UKIP 11%
Lib Dem 10%
Green 5%
Others 5%
I went for Conservatives getting about 319 seats, but acknowledged it could be Tory maj, Tory minority or Lib-Con coalition dependent on where the votes fall.
I am sticking to this at the moment, but we get a round two of our prediction league in the final week and for now I would likely put the Cons down to 36% and others up to 6%.
In terms of shy voters as discussed earlier, I can only struggle to make a case for the notion of the shy Labour voter outside of Scotland; why would they not be open about voting Labour? But shy LD, Con, UKIP and Lab in Scotland seem sensible ideas to me.
Dire for SLAB, not so bad for English/Welsh Labour.
Isn't that the highest subsample of all so far?
https://twitter.com/misszing/status/590149548208693248/photo/1
Primrose Hill = West of the railway line, yummy mummies and models.
Parkway = 'Edgy', mangy dogs on leads made of old string.
Really is son of Brown.
Nicola Sturgeon seems to have become increasingly arrogant about her parties ability to dictate to rUK after the GE. Surely this will be a major turn off for English DK voters and will sure up the Tory vote south of the border. That a Scottish Party could hold England to ransom is an anathema to English voters
Is there a patent PB device that is able to detect the political drivel (Patent Nigel Farage) from the searingly precise Sean Thomas offerings ?
Because the 20 and 30-something people who are getting and doing these new jobs are not getting anywhere. They face utterly impossible property prices, extortionate rents, huge travelling costs and 5 quid a pint.
They are, in effect slaves to big companies, central government and rich foreign rent seekers. And, unless something is done, they always will be.
Ed Miliband represents doing something. Most of the young workers who work for us realise it isn;t the right something.
But it is something
Full details down thread @2:30pm
"...a UKIP insider told Breitbart London that Labour have “taken either eye off the ball” in a number of areas that were previously considered safe. UKIP bosses are now expecting a number of shock results on 7th May that will dent Labour’s dominance in Northern England.
So far the pundits suggested UKIP were in contention in Rotherham, Heywood and Grimsby. Labour responded by running major campaigns in the seats, hoping to thwart UKIP plans. However, there are now believed to be up to five other seats in contention, but they are not receiving support from Labour HQ as it’s unaware of the risk."
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/04/20/working-class-voters-eyeing-ukip-as-polling-tips-surprise-northern-england-wins/
The raw numbers are Tories and Labour level-pegging
Adjust for certainty to vote and Tories lead by 3%
Adjust for don't-knows and the Tory lead is down to 2%
Might I suggest you append your unofficial drunken/sober "burblings" accordingly. We wouldn't wish the unwary or PB newcomers to mistake such ravings as some variety of Rogerdamus-lite musings.
Maybe - but many are prepared to take the risk ed will crash the property market and they will keep their job.
Property prices and rents are so high that young workers cannot envisage a day when they will ever be well off. Not ever. Not when they are 60. So there is no reason to vote tory.
We're not talking about barristas here. We're talking about well educated kids from nice middle class families with degrees in law and business.
I made the most wonderful breakfast ever on Saturday. It was unbelievably scrumptious, and without anything that suffered.
I see that if you simply apply the error from the last 2010 yougov on today's 2010 voters yougov survey then that should be LAB 33, CON 31, LD 6, IF the 2010 error has not been corrected, however size does not equal accuracy.
As for ICM, the last poll was an outlier, everyone could see that, so it's reversion to mean.
However it is remarkable to see that the Tory loses to UKIP have been exactly matched by 2010 LD&LAB, but even if the Tories get all the 2010 CON who say D/K they would still be at 33%.
10,500 votes might well see UKIP take Grimsby, whereas it wouldn't bring them close to winning Thanet South.
Suck it up sonny.
Plenty of Tory signs up in Dore and Totley (Hallam), a few more diamonds but not enough for Lib Dem comfort...
Hallam turnout to be higher than Rother Valley
I find it absolutely insane that the value of my two-bed in Shepherds bush has gone up by 60% in two years.
Also I presume Breitbart News UK is about as reputable and sound as its US cousin??
http://www.businessinsider.com/paul-krugman-bankruptcy-story-false-spreads-2013-3?IR=T#ixzz2NFkDWF4k
Where does the money to buy houses come from?
If everyone spends all their money to buy houses they wont have any left to buy anything else.
Was that hard for you to work out ?
Staffordshire Moorlands
Rother Valley
Stoke on Trent South
Walsall North
Walsall South
West Bromwich West
Wolverhampton NE
Cannock Chase
Forgive me I don't know which are Labour at the moment but theyd be my guesses at UKIPs Northern chances
[while i own a house, I'm not without sympathy given i have no idea how any of my kids will ever be able to buy a house unless we pop our clogs]