@skymarkwhite: BREAKING - Prime Minister David Cameron says he will attend an emergency summit of European leaders on Thursday to discuss #migrant crisis
"...a UKIP insider told Breitbart London that Labour have “taken either eye off the ball” in a number of areas that were previously considered safe. UKIP bosses are now expecting a number of shock results on 7th May that will dent Labour’s dominance in Northern England.
So far the pundits suggested UKIP were in contention in Rotherham, Heywood and Grimsby. Labour responded by running major campaigns in the seats, hoping to thwart UKIP plans. However, there are now believed to be up to five other seats in contention, but they are not receiving support from Labour HQ as it’s unaware of the risk."
LordA has been busy polling scottish seats, so he hasn't polled many potential UKIP targets, there could be many under the radar that no one knows, but that is the risk.
Re discussion on UK house prices or more specifically the London area. Apparently most of the new build properties are being bought by Chinese and Malaysian investors. They often just buy them off plan and on completion leave them empty. The question is why they are doing this, when the prices may be at near their highest level. Do they think that London represents a safe haven for their money ?
I don't really quite understand foreign investors spending tens of millions on flats near central London. One Chinese investor bought 38 flats in one deal, when they will not be built for awhile. Is this confidence in the London property market or do they fear that the Chinese economy is going to suffer and it is best to move some of their money elsewhere.
The London property market always looks ridiculous but it just goes up further. You can't move for Estate Agents in Hammersmith !
I just don't understand where the demand for two bed flats at these insane prices is coming from. It can't all be from dodgy Russians and Arabs. It is absolutely crazy that a two bed cost £440k just two years ago now costs £700k. Who the hell is buying at that price?!?
Increase supply, increase taxes on property investment, increase supply. Let the market adjust, introduce protections for people who are meeting their mortgage repayments on time but are in negative equity.
House prices rising by 60% is a function of increased demand with very limited supply. Building more houses and flats is what's needed. We've known this for years but have done not enough about it. Limiting demand from overseas buyers is also, IMO, needed. There's no point building loads of flats if they're all bought by Chinese investors.
from BBC: SNP will represent UK interests, leader Nicola Sturgeon says
Nicola Sturgeon seems to have become increasingly arrogant about her parties ability to dictate to rUK after the GE. Surely this will be a major turn off for English DK voters and will sure up the Tory vote south of the border. That a Scottish Party could hold England to ransom is an anathema to English voters
She, the SNP, has no right to consider at all those English only issues which are devolved to Scotland. What right has Sturgeon to vote on the English NHS?
Legally, the SNP MPs will be elected to the UK Parliament. Not voting for English issues was just a convention. There is no law to stop them.
Can you stop SNP Lords from voting in the Lords ? There is no upper House in Holyrood.
"...a UKIP insider told Breitbart London that Labour have “taken either eye off the ball” in a number of areas that were previously considered safe. UKIP bosses are now expecting a number of shock results on 7th May that will dent Labour’s dominance in Northern England.
So far the pundits suggested UKIP were in contention in Rotherham, Heywood and Grimsby. Labour responded by running major campaigns in the seats, hoping to thwart UKIP plans. However, there are now believed to be up to five other seats in contention, but they are not receiving support from Labour HQ as it’s unaware of the risk."
"...a UKIP insider told Breitbart London that Labour have “taken either eye off the ball” in a number of areas that were previously considered safe. UKIP bosses are now expecting a number of shock results on 7th May that will dent Labour’s dominance in Northern England.
So far the pundits suggested UKIP were in contention in Rotherham, Heywood and Grimsby. Labour responded by running major campaigns in the seats, hoping to thwart UKIP plans. However, there are now believed to be up to five other seats in contention, but they are not receiving support from Labour HQ as it’s unaware of the risk."
Today's ICM is, except for the Conservatives/Others figures what I predicted for the result nearly two weeks ago and which I have placed in my work's prediction league:
Conservative 37% Labour 32% UKIP 11% Lib Dem 10% Green 5% Others 5%
I went for Conservatives getting about 319 seats, but acknowledged it could be Tory maj, Tory minority or Lib-Con coalition dependent on where the votes fall.
I am sticking to this at the moment, but we get a round two of our prediction league in the final week and for now I would likely put the Cons down to 36% and others up to 6%.
In terms of shy voters as discussed earlier, I can only struggle to make a case for the notion of the shy Labour voter outside of Scotland; why would they not be open about voting Labour? But shy LD, Con, UKIP and Lab in Scotland seem sensible ideas to me.
Crumbs, 319? What are you on?!
Do you think we'll (the Clarets) stay up too or is that pushing it too far?
I fear May will be a bleak month of Miliband assuming power and BFC back in the Championship!
Here's an interesting thing. Natalie Bennett lives in my constituency, and is the Green PPC here (Holborn & St Pancras).
Her address is on the postal voting slip (I already voted as I might be out the country for the GE itself). I've also noticed that it is freely available to view on Google.
I admire her for this (if nothing else). It also enables me to reveal that her home is, according to Zoopla, worth £362,147
She must be the poorest of all the "major party" leaders. She's also, very clearly, on the wrong side of the Camden tracks.
Which part of that is meant to be interesting?
He wanted you to ask him what is his flat worth in the market now. Since it is only a flat , less than £2 million , I guess.
" But what do you suppose is the Prime Minister’s favourite TV programme? “I reckon he’s got an EastEnders fetish. That’s how he gets his idea of what ordinary people are like.” Mr Clegg? “Countryfile or Antiques Roadshow, something soft and fluffy. Or whatever his wife has told him they’re watching.” Mr Miliband? “Panorama”. And Mr Farage? “He would only watch British comedies. Only Fools And Horses; he models himself on Boycie.”"
"...a UKIP insider told Breitbart London that Labour have “taken either eye off the ball” in a number of areas that were previously considered safe. UKIP bosses are now expecting a number of shock results on 7th May that will dent Labour’s dominance in Northern England.
So far the pundits suggested UKIP were in contention in Rotherham, Heywood and Grimsby. Labour responded by running major campaigns in the seats, hoping to thwart UKIP plans. However, there are now believed to be up to five other seats in contention, but they are not receiving support from Labour HQ as it’s unaware of the risk."
That reads to me like UKIP not doing as well as they hoped in Rotherham, Heywood and Grimsby.
There was a Labour private poll of Hull (?) tweeted by a journalist the other day that seemed to show UKIP in contention. That sort of supports the article.
Wasn't the fieldwork for that Hull poll done over a 6 month period or something?
Also I presume Breitbart News UK is about as reputable and sound as its US cousin??
One of the Breitbart journos left to work with UKIP/Farage, so they should have good access to any insider gossip.
from BBC: SNP will represent UK interests, leader Nicola Sturgeon says
Nicola Sturgeon seems to have become increasingly arrogant about her parties ability to dictate to rUK after the GE. Surely this will be a major turn off for English DK voters and will sure up the Tory vote south of the border. That a Scottish Party could hold England to ransom is an anathema to English voters
She, the SNP, has no right to consider at all those English only issues which are devolved to Scotland. What right has Sturgeon to vote on the English NHS?
Legally, the SNP MPs will be elected to the UK Parliament. Not voting for English issues was just a convention. There is no law to stop them.
Can you stop SNP Lords from voting in the Lords ? There is no upper House in Holyrood.
The SNP do not accept Lordships. To accept one would mean instant expulsion from the party.
The London property market always looks ridiculous but it just goes up further. You can't move for Estate Agents in Hammersmith !
I just don't understand where the demand for two bed flats at these insane prices is coming from. It can't all be from dodgy Russians and Arabs. It is absolutely crazy that a two bed cost £440k just two years ago now costs £700k. Who the hell is buying at that price?!?
I felt like I overpaid at £440k.
Bank of (rich) mum and dad. City boys.
Russians and Chinese aren't buying conversions in W6, they're going for purpose built apartments in faceless luxury riverside blocks that normal people could never afford even when prices were more sane.
The London property market always looks ridiculous but it just goes up further. You can't move for Estate Agents in Hammersmith !
I just don't understand where the demand for two bed flats at these insane prices is coming from. It can't all be from dodgy Russians and Arabs. It is absolutely crazy that a two bed cost £440k just two years ago now costs £700k. Who the hell is buying at that price?!?
I felt like I overpaid at £440k.
Rich mummies and daddies in the shires are paying (at least the mortgages) of these places for their London-working kids, to help them get on the housing ladder. If you have parents wealthy enough, you're fine. If you don't, you're screwed.
Re discussion on UK house prices or more specifically the London area. Apparently most of the new build properties are being bought by Chinese and Malaysian investors. They often just buy them off plan and on completion leave them empty. The question is why they are doing this, when the prices may be at near their highest level. Do they think that London represents a safe haven for their money ?
I don't really quite understand foreign investors spending tens of millions on flats near central London. One Chinese investor bought 38 flats in one deal, when they will not be built for awhile. Is this confidence in the London property market or do they fear that the Chinese economy is going to suffer and it is best to move some of their money elsewhere.
Probably a bit of both. London property has become like a bank for overseas investors. It is absurd and I think we have to stop - or place some sort of restrictions - on this.
At this rate every one bedroom flat in London is going to end up costing £2 mio before long.......!
Lord Ashcroft: "Swing voters, who say they don’t know how they will vote or that they may yet change their minds, were more likely to say they were moving towards Labour (35%) than the Conservatives (24%) or the Lib Dems (19%). A higher proportion of voters said they were moving towards the three established parties, and fewer said they were moving away, than was the case when I last asked this question in July 2014. The reverse was true for UKIP: 22% said they were moving towards the party (down three points), while 53% said they were moving away (up seven points)." Sleazy UKIP on the slide.
The Edinburgh South poll is the first that seems to show any evidence of tactical unionist voting. In the circumstances, it's probably the best poll for Labour of all the Lord Ashcroft Scottish constituency polls.
"...a UKIP insider told Breitbart London that Labour have “taken either eye off the ball” in a number of areas that were previously considered safe. UKIP bosses are now expecting a number of shock results on 7th May that will dent Labour’s dominance in Northern England.
So far the pundits suggested UKIP were in contention in Rotherham, Heywood and Grimsby. Labour responded by running major campaigns in the seats, hoping to thwart UKIP plans. However, there are now believed to be up to five other seats in contention, but they are not receiving support from Labour HQ as it’s unaware of the risk."
That reads to me like UKIP not doing as well as they hoped in Rotherham, Heywood and Grimsby.
There was a Labour private poll of Hull (?) tweeted by a journalist the other day that seemed to show UKIP in contention. That sort of supports the article.
"...a UKIP insider told Breitbart London that Labour have “taken either eye off the ball” in a number of areas that were previously considered safe. UKIP bosses are now expecting a number of shock results on 7th May that will dent Labour’s dominance in Northern England.
So far the pundits suggested UKIP were in contention in Rotherham, Heywood and Grimsby. Labour responded by running major campaigns in the seats, hoping to thwart UKIP plans. However, there are now believed to be up to five other seats in contention, but they are not receiving support from Labour HQ as it’s unaware of the risk."
The Edinburgh South poll is the first that seems to show any evidence of tactical unionist voting. In the circumstances, it's probably the best poll for Labour of all the Lord Ashcroft Scottish constituency polls.
On the flip side it is also the SNP's toughest or 2nd toughest seat from SLAB.
Does anyone from Scotland have any ideas about what's caused the further swing to the SNP since the campaign began? Sturgeon's debates performances? Negative Murphy effect? Perceptions of anti-Scottishness from the English?
The London property market always looks ridiculous but it just goes up further. You can't move for Estate Agents in Hammersmith !
I just don't understand where the demand for two bed flats at these insane prices is coming from. It can't all be from dodgy Russians and Arabs. It is absolutely crazy that a two bed cost £440k just two years ago now costs £700k. Who the hell is buying at that price?!?
I felt like I overpaid at £440k.
Bank of (rich) mum and dad. City boys.
Russians and Chinese aren't buying conversions in W6, they're going for purpose built apartments in faceless luxury riverside blocks that normal people could never afford even when prices were more sane.
I haven't noticed many City boys around here. Most of them are in trendier areas of East London like Brick Lane and Shoreditch, and the older generation of City, err, men are in the suburbs of North and West London. Yeah not many Chinese investment around here, must just be rich parents able to put up hundreds of thousands for their kid(s) to buy expensive flats.
The Edinburgh South poll is the first that seems to show any evidence of tactical unionist voting. In the circumstances, it's probably the best poll for Labour of all the Lord Ashcroft Scottish constituency polls.
It is slightly strange though.
Has any other Ashcroft poll showed less than a 20% reduction in Labour's vote share? And this one shows less than 3% reduction. Seems very out of sync and nothing else in the Ashcroft series shows the Labour vote remaining so solid.
I guess the Tory shift supports the possibility of heavy tactical voting. But can it really produce more tactical votes given how things stand right now.
The London property market always looks ridiculous but it just goes up further. You can't move for Estate Agents in Hammersmith !
I just don't understand where the demand for two bed flats at these insane prices is coming from. It can't all be from dodgy Russians and Arabs. It is absolutely crazy that a two bed cost £440k just two years ago now costs £700k. Who the hell is buying at that price?!?
I felt like I overpaid at £440k.
Essentially London property is a AAA bond for foreign investor, many of whom are, I guess, looking for stability and security in an uncertain world. If you have a net worth of £3M (say) and fancy a bolthole from the possibility of being strung up from a lamp post, having property confiscated because you don't agree with who's in power this year, or are living in a place with a bonkers economy, you maybe don't care too much about the finer points of £450K in Zone 2 versus £350K in zone 3 (or whatever). You just want an X on the map that's safe, and strange though it might seem to us lucky enough to be here and take all the above for granted, it has a "value". We are part financing our trade deficit with the world by selling our political stability. Trouble is if the market turns that's a lot of hot money that can go to Zurich/N York/Toronto or wherever.
Add in the population going up by about 2-3M a decade and household formation probably being even higher than past decades (divorce, smaller families, folk living longer etc) and the locals are driving up demand generally too.
Of course unless we free up some planning laws and build a lot more too (think we are pretty much all agreed on the need to increase supply) we will probably continue (as long as the foreign money stays) to have the nuts situation we have that just about anyone owing a three bed flat inside the M25 is liable for IHT as indeed are "normal" houses the "nicer" parts of provincial cities.
The Edinburgh South poll is the first that seems to show any evidence of tactical unionist voting. In the circumstances, it's probably the best poll for Labour of all the Lord Ashcroft Scottish constituency polls.
It is slightly strange though.
Has any other Ashcroft poll showed less than a 20% reduction in Labour's vote share? And this one shows less than 3% reduction. Seems very out of sync and nothing else in the Ashcroft series shows the Labour vote remaining so solid.
I guess the Tory shift supports the possibility of heavy tactical voting. But can it really produce more tactical votes given how things stand right now.
Labour have incumbency and 30% ? was it ? "Yes" vote in Edi South to work with though.
Also the start point for the SNP there is only 7.7%.
Does anyone from Scotland have any ideas about what's caused the further swing to the SNP since the campaign began? Sturgeon's debates performances? Negative Murphy effect? Perceptions of anti-Scottishness from the English?
"The Edinburgh South poll is the first that seems to show any evidence of tactical unionist voting. In the circumstances, it's probably the best poll for Labour of all the Lord Ashcroft Scottish constituency polls."
MoE MoE continues to play with us. Still, while it's not nice there's still no definitive substantive movement in any direction, at least it remains so close there is the possibility of a change in outcome, even if it is not on the horizon yet. Keeps things semi interesting.
from BBC: SNP will represent UK interests, leader Nicola Sturgeon says
Nicola Sturgeon seems to have become increasingly arrogant about her parties ability to dictate to rUK after the GE. Surely this will be a major turn off for English DK voters and will sure up the Tory vote south of the border. That a Scottish Party could hold England to ransom is an anathema to English voters
She, the SNP, has no right to consider at all those English only issues which are devolved to Scotland. What right has Sturgeon to vote on the English NHS?
Legally, the SNP MPs will be elected to the UK Parliament. Not voting for English issues was just a convention. There is no law to stop them.
Can you stop SNP Lords from voting in the Lords ? There is no upper House in Holyrood.
The fact that it is so, does not make it satisfactory.
It is a totally undemocratic aberration for so-called elected MPs to be deciding something for another country that doesn't apply in their own. If the SNP enact a bad English law, how does the electorate remove them from power? How do they get held to account?
This is not the same as Tory MPs under Thatcher creating laws as that was a single country then pre-devolution. English MPs don't and can't pass devolved legislation on Scotland.
Unless there's convergence some pollsters might be looking for a new line of work come May 8th.
Bit unfair I suppose as it all looks about 34/34 ish, but the moving parts of UKIP/Green/SNP/Lib Dem collapse (but defending what they hold to the last bullet), voter registration (or lack of), internet versus phone, tactical voting, shy everyones (except the SNP) could all make it look a bit ugly. As the analysis pointed out this morning there's a big difference between predicting a winner by four lengths which wins by two , and predicting a winner by two that loses by two, even if the horse is called Margin of Error.
Labour might be holding Dumferline West Fife, in fact I think that's an early declaration.
I'm not tempted by that one. I think the SNP might have been artificially depressed by both a "LibDem by-election effect" and a Brown backyard effect last time, and Fife was a strongish area for "Yes".
Here's an interesting thing. Natalie Bennett lives in my constituency, and is the Green PPC here (Holborn & St Pancras).
Her address is on the postal voting slip (I already voted as I might be out the country for the GE itself). I've also noticed that it is freely available to view on Google.
I admire her for this (if nothing else). It also enables me to reveal that her home is, according to Zoopla, worth £362,147
She must be the poorest of all the "major party" leaders. She's also, very clearly, on the wrong side of the Camden tracks.
Which part of that is meant to be interesting?
He wanted you to ask him what is his flat worth in the market now. Since it is only a flat , less than £2 million , I guess.
Er, no, I really didn't. I thought it interesting that Bennett is so (comparatively) poor (by London property owning standards, and in relation to other London party leaders) and also that she is prepared to put her address out there, in public.
It actually made me warm to her. She is probably the most "ordinary" of the national party leaders, even if her policies are the craziest.
And for the record, my flat is worth nowhere NEAR what you suggest. It's a pleasant one bedder in the posher end of Camden, not a penthouse in Knightsbridge. DYOR.
I didn't get on the property ladder til I got off heroin (about 14 years ago). I'm a late developer.
Which brought you more pleasure: the heroin or the flat in Primrose Hill?
Comments
The London property market always looks ridiculous but it just goes up further. You can't move for Estate Agents in Hammersmith !
Are we heading for a SPIN crossover?
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/590166530480021504
All those people saying there's hope for Unionists in Edinburgh.....
Con 36.5%
Lab 32.5%
LD 9%
UKIP 9%
Green 6%
If I say that I trust in ICM am I safe from being accused of being a Tory, or is it too soon?
Corby and the Faroe Islands??
I don't really quite understand foreign investors spending tens of millions on flats near central London. One Chinese investor bought 38 flats in one deal, when they will not be built for awhile. Is this confidence in the London property market or do they fear that the Chinese economy is going to suffer and it is best to move some of their money elsewhere.
Same as last week now.
I felt like I overpaid at £440k.
Con 34 (+1) Lab 30 (-3) LD 10 (+1) UKIP 13 (nc) Greens 4 (-2)
Ashcroft National Poll, 17-19 April: CON 34%, LAB 30%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%. Details on @ConHome, 4pm:
Can you stop SNP Lords from voting in the Lords ? There is no upper House in Holyrood.
Not too shabby.
Con -5
Lab -4
UKIP +5
LD +3
Green -4
“I work for Royal Mail, so I got privatised. Now I’ve got to work for a living and it’s a killer.”
Do you think we'll (the Clarets) stay up too or is that pushing it too far?
I fear May will be a bleak month of Miliband assuming power and BFC back in the Championship!
Why have I laid off so much.
What have I been thinking
" But what do you suppose is the Prime Minister’s favourite TV programme? “I reckon he’s got an EastEnders fetish. That’s how he gets his idea of what ordinary people are like.” Mr Clegg? “Countryfile or Antiques Roadshow, something soft and fluffy. Or whatever his wife has told him they’re watching.” Mr Miliband? “Panorama”. And Mr Farage? “He would only watch British comedies. Only Fools And Horses; he models himself on Boycie.”"
Russians and Chinese aren't buying conversions in W6, they're going for purpose built apartments in faceless luxury riverside blocks that normal people could never afford even when prices were more sane.
It's called social mobility....
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/590160374776881152
At this rate every one bedroom flat in London is going to end up costing £2 mio before long.......!
"Swing voters, who say they don’t know how they will vote or that they may yet change their minds, were more likely to say they were moving towards Labour (35%) than the Conservatives (24%) or the Lib Dems (19%). A higher proportion of voters said they were moving towards the three established parties, and fewer said they were moving away, than was the case when I last asked this question in July 2014. The reverse was true for UKIP: 22% said they were moving towards the party (down three points), while 53% said they were moving away (up seven points)."
Sleazy UKIP on the slide.
May 2015 think the Guardian shouldn't have published last week's ICM and ICM should have reran it because it was an outlier.
Got Spike after a retune. [I know you were all wondering about that].
Not bad for the Conservatives overall today. It's going to be fascinating to see whether the SNP really can roll over Labour's mega-majorities.
(ONLY KIDDING
"This polling does not give the right answer. Poll a second time!"
Has any other Ashcroft poll showed less than a 20% reduction in Labour's vote share? And this one shows less than 3% reduction. Seems very out of sync and nothing else in the Ashcroft series shows the Labour vote remaining so solid.
I guess the Tory shift supports the possibility of heavy tactical voting. But can it really produce more tactical votes given how things stand right now.
Add in the population going up by about 2-3M a decade and household formation probably being even higher than past decades (divorce, smaller families, folk living longer etc) and the locals are driving up demand generally too.
Of course unless we free up some planning laws and build a lot more too (think we are pretty much all agreed on the need to increase supply) we will probably continue (as long as the foreign money stays) to have the nuts situation we have that just about anyone owing a three bed flat inside the M25 is liable for IHT as indeed are "normal" houses the "nicer" parts of provincial cities.
Also the start point for the SNP there is only 7.7%.
East: 47.3%
North & Leith: 40.0%
South West: 38.4%
South: 34.7%
West: 34.5%
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=117793380&ex=1&origin=MRL
That's an evens bet right now, surely?
"The Edinburgh South poll is the first that seems to show any evidence of tactical unionist voting. In the circumstances, it's probably the best poll for Labour of all the Lord Ashcroft Scottish constituency polls."
Ian Murray is an outstanding local MP.
Excising YG, I get a TORY lead of 0.2%
Surely he could have waited to release them in one go.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/589748381813239808
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/589749837446434816
Edinburgh S: YES 35: NO 65
Edinburgh E: YES 47: NO 53
Edinburgh SW: YES 38: NO 61
Edinburgh W: YES 34: NO 65
It is a totally undemocratic aberration for so-called elected MPs to be deciding something for another country that doesn't apply in their own. If the SNP enact a bad English law, how does the electorate remove them from power? How do they get held to account?
This is not the same as Tory MPs under Thatcher creating laws as that was a single country then pre-devolution. English MPs don't and can't pass devolved legislation on Scotland.
I'm trying to find them saying Panelbase should have rerun the poll with lab 6% ahead
Unless there's convergence some pollsters might be looking for a new line of work come May 8th.
Bit unfair I suppose as it all looks about 34/34 ish, but the moving parts of UKIP/Green/SNP/Lib Dem collapse (but defending what they hold to the last bullet), voter registration (or lack of), internet versus phone, tactical voting, shy everyones (except the SNP) could all make it look a bit ugly. As the analysis pointed out this morning there's a big difference between predicting a winner by four lengths which wins by two , and predicting a winner by two that loses by two, even if the horse is called Margin of Error.
But should get 2nd
If so I can reveal the first ever daily SPUD!
What is SPUD?
If he was still an MP, he'd probably be losing his seat in 17 days time, not sitting pretty in the HoL.
So Labour now following a 30% strategy.
How does that work?
https://twitter.com/DJack_Journo/status/590175043377823745