The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
I doubt they'll win in Scotland, and London is 10 million people.
Well, they've just won their first London council. And they're going to come first nationally in terms of votes and councillors. If Reform aren't a national party, no-one else is either.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Cargo bikes for kids are generally a sign of well off, middle or upper class people. They tend to be expensive and work best when you live close to good schools.
Driving a "Chelsea Tractor" on the school run s seen as a bit chavy
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No but he will probably sack someone else.
Hopefully Rachel Reeves. Though if her replacement is communist Ed then maybe not.
Yeah, at least Reeves is completely ineffectual and largely just adds to the gloom. Miliband could do some serious damage.
I have now resigned myself to the fact that Rachel Reeves is quite possibly the best they can do (which says something), so any replacement is only likely to be some order of magnitude worse.
Luke Tryl @LukeTryl · 5m Still lots of results to come in, but comparing the swing in local election results since 22 & swing implied by the polling average, it looks like the Tories are overperforming by about totally, Reform by 3, Labour on track, Greens underperforming and Lib Dems underperforming.
That's a pretty meaningless exercise with just a few mostly urban results in so far.
Don't know how this chap can say that the Lib Dems are underpeforming based on the current results. They've made the second most gains so far. A friend of mine who is a hardcore Lib Dem activist is always complaining about how the media ignore Lib Dem successes. Based on the Sky coverage I see her point. She has a particular animosity to Sir John Curtis for doing the above as well.
The TLDR on his analysis is that, so far, the Tory vote hasn't sunk by as much as it should have, from their loss of national vote share in the "next GE" VI polls. The other side of this coin is that the LibDems aren't picking up so much.
But the results so far are heavily skewed towards urban areas, where the Tories have relatively fewer votes and seats to lose. The incoming results from Hampshire hint that there may be a lot more bad news for the Tories to come...
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
You said if Labour doesn’t come second Sir Keir will resign. I note you’re now already trying to back out of that.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
The accepted term here is “princeling”
Wonderfully derogatory and very British as an insult
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
Reform won Havering campaigning specifically on a platform that Havering ISN'T London and should be moved into Essex. Which would probably save local residents a lot of money - except that all the local over-60s would lose their London Freedom Passes.
Obviously plenty on which to comment and much more as the day progresses.
From the London sanctum of Stodge Towers, the early results are playing to the old Stodge Political Adage for elections - "it's never as good as you hope and it's never as bad as you fear".
For the LDs, stunning results in Sutton (we never got to 50 Councillors when I was politically active in the 90s and early noughties) and Richmond are offset by the disappointment in Merton which conversely might be one of the best results so far for Labour.
For the Conservatives, disaster in Sutton, Richmond and Havering but a good result in Wandsworth and signs they might turn back Reform in places like Bexley and Bromley.
Labour did well in Merton and I thought Ealing was okay for them but today and especially Inner East London might be more "difficult".
NO word from Newham as yet - I suspect Mirza and the NIP have won big and if they haven't, Labour will have done incredibly well below the radar.
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
..Here at Havering, counting has been going on for 10 hours overnight and tempers are fraying. Reform UK has already got enough councillors to take control of its first London borough, although that's not official yet. As the Havering Residents Association chair Gillian Ford holds onto her seat, she is heckled by a Reform candidate, who shouts loudly "where is the humility?" He is hastily ushered out of the room but the explosion of emotion shows just how hard-fought this election has been...
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
Reform won Havering campaigning specifically on a platform that Havering ISN'T London and should be moved into Essex. Which would probably save local residents a lot of money - except that all the local over-60s would lose their London Freedom Passes.
I agree with Reform ! Havering should become part of Essex and not pollute the good name of the capital by voting in their droves for Reform . Good riddance to it !
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
I'd laugh my socks off if Labour slightly outperforming their abysmal expectations meant another year of Let me be Clear Keir in charge of the reigns. Just how unpopular is he going to be by 2027 !
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Well Sir Keir could beg Kemi, Sir Ed and Polanski to please, please, pretty please put him back in No 10 on this result which I don't think is enough for a Reform majority. Kemi at least would tell him where to go though
I'd laugh my socks off if Labour slightly outperforming their abysmal expectations meant another year of Let me be Clear Keir in charge of the reigns. Just how unpopular is he going to be by 2027 !
I wrote a header on here in 2020 saying Sir Keir was a boring nerd who the public would never take to, and lost money backing that view!
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
..Here at Havering, counting has been going on for 10 hours overnight and tempers are fraying. Reform UK has already got enough councillors to take control of its first London borough, although that's not official yet. As the Havering Residents Association chair Gillian Ford holds onto her seat, she is heckled by a Reform candidate, who shouts loudly "where is the humility?" He is hastily ushered out of the room but the explosion of emotion shows just how hard-fought this election has been...
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges The Labour Party has to face a simple reality this morning. If it want's to stop this man entering Downing Street it needs to find a new leader. If it can't, or won't, fine. But stop pretending Keir Starmer is the solution to Reform. He's actually Nigel Farage's best recruiting sergeant.
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
..Here at Havering, counting has been going on for 10 hours overnight and tempers are fraying. Reform UK has already got enough councillors to take control of its first London borough, although that's not official yet. As the Havering Residents Association chair Gillian Ford holds onto her seat, she is heckled by a Reform candidate, who shouts loudly "where is the humility?" He is hastily ushered out of the room but the explosion of emotion shows just how hard-fought this election has been...
Yes, these overnight counts are no joke. Most of the candidates and activists have been awake for nearly 24 hours and running on adrenaline and coffee.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Cargo bikes for kids are generally a sign of well off, middle or upper class people. They tend to be expensive and work best when you live close to good schools.
Driving a "Chelsea Tractor" on the school run s seen as a bit chavy
They are replacing second cars in cities I think. Can only be a good thing, and much cheaper too.
Driving an SUV to school is just plain irresponsible.
Ha. Angela Rayner has deleted her video lecturing pupils at Audenshaw School, Tameside. I hope the governing body and headteacher have reflected on their actions here, which were illegal; and that Angela Rayner learns how to nurture nascent political interest, not crush it.
The likes of Angela Rayner - and, possibly the headteacher of this school - are utterly convinced by their own moral rightness. It doesn't really occur to them that other legitimate views are available. They don't really think much beyond "but we're the good guys".
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
..Here at Havering, counting has been going on for 10 hours overnight and tempers are fraying. Reform UK has already got enough councillors to take control of its first London borough, although that's not official yet. As the Havering Residents Association chair Gillian Ford holds onto her seat, she is heckled by a Reform candidate, who shouts loudly "where is the humility?" He is hastily ushered out of the room but the explosion of emotion shows just how hard-fought this election has been...
Yes, these overnight counts are no joke. Most of the candidates and activists have been awake for nearly 24 hours and running on adrenaline and coffee.
It's a ludicrous way of doing things.
True. As an election addict, when I've not be standing I like the drama of the 10pm exit poll and the overnight count. When I've been a candidate, the 24-hour no-sleep no-stopping marathon was an ordeal that became tougher each time.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Cargo bikes for kids are generally a sign of well off, middle or upper class people. They tend to be expensive and work best when you live close to good schools.
Driving a "Chelsea Tractor" on the school run s seen as a bit chavy
They are replacing second cars in cities I think. Can only be a good thing, and much cheaper too.
Driving an SUV to school is just plain irresponsible.
If you can afford thousands for a rather specialist vehicle.
No jokes but five minutes on politics, including the demise of Labour & Conservatives, and also Democrats & Republicans.
Unsurprisingly for a top comedian, Jimmy is very perceptive when it comes to changes in society.
Yes, who can forget Benny Hill’s insights on the 3 day week.
Merely quoting a counterexample doesn't disprove the point. Comedians are, by and large, reasonably smart by the standards of celebrities, and tend to have their finger rather more on the pulse of what people think than, for example, actors. Possibly as a result of having to think on their feet and interact with audiences (I am not aware that Benny Hill did this, much).
Yeah, well, I've said before comedians are the far too acknowledged legislators of the universe. I'd soone take advice from Carr on hair trasnplants than politics.
Here's a comedian witrh 'thoughts' meeting someone who knows what he's talking about. I guess the most interesting thing is that both were more or less working class. Difficult to imagine an equivalent today.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Cargo bikes for kids are generally a sign of well off, middle or upper class people. They tend to be expensive and work best when you live close to good schools.
Driving a "Chelsea Tractor" on the school run s seen as a bit chavy
Aren’t the cargo bikes like £5k? My car cost me less than that.
I note the Conservatives have taken Westminster much as expected and have held Bexley perhaps with more ease than some imagined.
What we are seeing (from a Conservative and LD perspective) is both parties retreating to areas of strength and fortifying those in terms of local council seats. I suspect that will mean it will be as hard for the Conservatives to make gains from the Lib Dems at the next GE as it will for the LDs to make gains from the Conservatives.
There are, however, growing areas where neither party is relevant.
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
An observation: I know a lot of people who will be doing counts today. They are public sector workers, typically young, typically middle class. On the basis of my conversations with these archetypes, they objectively know that Reform exists in a vague Nigel-Farage-is-the-bogeyman way, but have never met a Reform voter, and don't fully accept that, except at the margins, real people are voting for them. Typically, despite working in a council, they aren't actually that politically engaged. It's going to be an odd experience for many of them piling up all these votes.
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
Havering isn't really London though, is it. It's Essex and tbf, Reform campaigned on that basis.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Cargo bikes for kids are generally a sign of well off, middle or upper class people. They tend to be expensive and work best when you live close to good schools.
Driving a "Chelsea Tractor" on the school run s seen as a bit chavy
Aren’t the cargo bikes like £5k? My car cost me less than that.
The absolute cheapest new Range Rover is about £42k.
My second hand Volkswagen Polo was £12k. £5k is nothing in the grand scheme of things.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Cargo bikes for kids are generally a sign of well off, middle or upper class people. They tend to be expensive and work best when you live close to good schools.
Driving a "Chelsea Tractor" on the school run s seen as a bit chavy
They are replacing second cars in cities I think. Can only be a good thing, and much cheaper too.
Driving an SUV to school is just plain irresponsible.
Sadly no shortage of SUVs on the school runs to the chavvy private schools round here, as I saw on my diversion via the polling station yesterday, an angry, beeping, pavement-mounting gridlock. Probably quicker to walk for a lot of them.
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
I'd laugh my socks off if Labour slightly outperforming their abysmal expectations meant another year of Let me be Clear Keir in charge of the reigns. Just how unpopular is he going to be by 2027 !
Ha. Angela Rayner has deleted her video lecturing pupils at Audenshaw School, Tameside. I hope the governing body and headteacher have reflected on their actions here, which were illegal; and that Angela Rayner learns how to nurture nascent political interest, not crush it.
The likes of Angela Rayner - and, possibly the headteacher of this school - are utterly convinced by their own moral rightness. It doesn't really occur to them that other legitimate views are available. They don't really think much beyond "but we're the good guys".
To be fair to the school, is it not possible or even likely that this would have been one in a series of guest lectures, or that teachers would use Rayner's words as a starting point for discussion?
Yes. An implication of which is that whether Reform win or not in 2029 depends in part on the issue of the extend to which non Reform parties, including the Tories, strategically (and mostly deniably) collaborate tactically to maximise the non Reform vote.
Reform are only going to win the next GE with 30% of the vote if the other parties and voters let them. Of course that is true of any outfit with 30%, but other parties may feel, come late 2028, that the case is different.
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
From the UK perspective to the layman that is not a crisis. It’s just another war in a far away land. It will become a crisis if the pumps start running dry but at present they have not.
I note the Conservatives have taken Westminster much as expected and have held Bexley perhaps with more ease than some imagined.
What we are seeing (from a Conservative and LD perspective) is both parties retreating to areas of strength and fortifying those in terms of local council seats. I suspect that will mean it will be as hard for the Conservatives to make gains from the Lib Dems at the next GE as it will for the LDs to make gains from the Conservatives.
There are, however, growing areas where neither party is relevant.
With almost all results in, the Tory vote in Bexley is now 37% - down from 51% last time. Reform is at 32%, from nowhere, and Labour on 19% down from 44%, with the Greens picking up 7%.
That the Tories have 29 seats (for 37%) to Reform's 7 (for 32%) is down to the voting system.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Cargo bikes for kids are generally a sign of well off, middle or upper class people. They tend to be expensive and work best when you live close to good schools.
Driving a "Chelsea Tractor" on the school run s seen as a bit chavy
Aren’t the cargo bikes like £5k? My car cost me less than that.
Some of them do.
They work well for people who can afford to live where there is easy access to the schools.
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
..Here at Havering, counting has been going on for 10 hours overnight and tempers are fraying. Reform UK has already got enough councillors to take control of its first London borough, although that's not official yet. As the Havering Residents Association chair Gillian Ford holds onto her seat, she is heckled by a Reform candidate, who shouts loudly "where is the humility?" He is hastily ushered out of the room but the explosion of emotion shows just how hard-fought this election has been...
Yes, these overnight counts are no joke. Most of the candidates and activists have been awake for nearly 24 hours and running on adrenaline and coffee.
It's a ludicrous way of doing things.
We like it because we are impatient and enjoy the staying up all night picking at the results. But I am tired now. We're like kids who won't go to bed on Christmas Eve. Honestly, would we be any less happy if we counted during the day and started the declarations around tea time on Friday, giving us a whole weekend to wallow in stats? Friday counts would save political nerds from themselves.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Cargo bikes for kids are generally a sign of well off, middle or upper class people. They tend to be expensive and work best when you live close to good schools.
Driving a "Chelsea Tractor" on the school run s seen as a bit chavy
Aren’t the cargo bikes like £5k? My car cost me less than that.
The absolute cheapest new Range Rover is about £42k.
My second hand Volkswagen Polo was £12k. £5k is nothing in the grand scheme of things.
My brand new Suzuki Swift set me back less than £13k just a couple of years ago. You can get second hand vehicles for considerably less than that.
£5k for most families is a hell of a lot of money.
Especially if you already have/need a vehicle then £5k for an additional form of transport is a luxury many can't afford.
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
Havering isn't really London though, is it. It's Essex and tbf, Reform campaigned on that basis.
You’re right, it is Essex. I lived there most of my life, still think of it as home, and wouldn’t call myself a Londoner.
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
..Here at Havering, counting has been going on for 10 hours overnight and tempers are fraying. Reform UK has already got enough councillors to take control of its first London borough, although that's not official yet. As the Havering Residents Association chair Gillian Ford holds onto her seat, she is heckled by a Reform candidate, who shouts loudly "where is the humility?" He is hastily ushered out of the room but the explosion of emotion shows just how hard-fought this election has been...
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
..Here at Havering, counting has been going on for 10 hours overnight and tempers are fraying. Reform UK has already got enough councillors to take control of its first London borough, although that's not official yet. As the Havering Residents Association chair Gillian Ford holds onto her seat, she is heckled by a Reform candidate, who shouts loudly "where is the humility?" He is hastily ushered out of the room but the explosion of emotion shows just how hard-fought this election has been...
Yes, these overnight counts are no joke. Most of the candidates and activists have been awake for nearly 24 hours and running on adrenaline and coffee.
It's a ludicrous way of doing things.
We like it because we are impatient and enjoy the staying up all night picking at the results. But I am tired now. We're like kids who won't go to bed on Christmas Eve. Honestly, would we be any less happy if we counted during the day and started the declarations around tea time on Friday, giving us a whole weekend to wallow in stats? Friday counts would save political nerds from themselves.
Me. The thrill of election night is a big part of British politics.
Going to vote one day and having a change of Government the next, due to the counting overnight, is also quite inspirational regardless of who you vote for.
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
Havering isn't really London though, is it. It's Essex and tbf, Reform campaigned on that basis.
You’re right, it is Essex. I lived there most of my life, still think of it as home, and wouldn’t call myself a Londoner.
Just wait until the Havering oldies find out they've lost their freedom passes, if they ever get moved to Essex.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
You use 'creating wealth' when you mean 'accumulating wealth' - unless you can show me how an ex-pat in the Gulf actually 'creates' more wealth than they could do in the UK.
Let's not forget either that some of the wealth that's accumulated is through the avoidance of UK taxes whilst retaining the rights and privileges of UK citizenship.
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
..Here at Havering, counting has been going on for 10 hours overnight and tempers are fraying. Reform UK has already got enough councillors to take control of its first London borough, although that's not official yet. As the Havering Residents Association chair Gillian Ford holds onto her seat, she is heckled by a Reform candidate, who shouts loudly "where is the humility?" He is hastily ushered out of the room but the explosion of emotion shows just how hard-fought this election has been...
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
Havering isn't really London though, is it. It's Essex and tbf, Reform campaigned on that basis.
You’re right, it is Essex. I lived there most of my life, still think of it as home, and wouldn’t call myself a Londoner.
Most of London isn't London. It's mostly been stolen from Middlesex (where I am from), Surrey, Essex and Kent.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
And where house prices are over 13x income.
There are places which are nice to visit and places which are nice to live in.
With the key determinant of whether a place is good to live in being whether you can afford to live there.
Well I can afford to live here! I apologise for doing well for myself, I know aspiration is frowned upon these days.
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
Reform won Havering campaigning specifically on a platform that Havering ISN'T London and should be moved into Essex. Which would probably save local residents a lot of money - except that all the local over-60s would lose their London Freedom Passes.
Worse for Havering if it moved into Essex might be the loss not of free bus passes but of actual buses unless Essex County Council stumps up the cash to TfL, which seems unlikely. Still, I doubt we'll find out.
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
There is nothing that the UK (or any other European country) can do to resolve the Hormuz crisis. Not much that the UAE or KSA can do either.
The only people who can are the Trump and the Iranians and no one has real diplomatic or military leverage over either.
So there is nothing Starmer or Badenoch or Farage can do. We are all just spectators needing to brace for impact for the aviation fuel and diesel shortage.
I note the Conservatives have taken Westminster much as expected and have held Bexley perhaps with more ease than some imagined.
What we are seeing (from a Conservative and LD perspective) is both parties retreating to areas of strength and fortifying those in terms of local council seats. I suspect that will mean it will be as hard for the Conservatives to make gains from the Lib Dems at the next GE as it will for the LDs to make gains from the Conservatives.
There are, however, growing areas where neither party is relevant.
With almost all results in, the Tory vote in Bexley is now 37% - down from 51% last time. Reform is at 32%, from nowhere, and Labour on 19% down from 44%, with the Greens picking up 7%.
That the Tories have 29 seats (for 37%) to Reform's 7 (for 32%) is down to the voting system.
Arguably it's also down to Reform being politically naive and over confident and thinking they can win everywhere rather than targetting specific Wards.
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
Reform won Havering campaigning specifically on a platform that Havering ISN'T London and should be moved into Essex. Which would probably save local residents a lot of money - except that all the local over-60s would lose their London Freedom Passes.
Worse for Havering if it moved into Essex might be the loss not of free bus passes but of actual buses unless Essex County Council stumps up the cash to TfL, which seems unlikely. Still, I doubt we'll find out.
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
..Here at Havering, counting has been going on for 10 hours overnight and tempers are fraying. Reform UK has already got enough councillors to take control of its first London borough, although that's not official yet. As the Havering Residents Association chair Gillian Ford holds onto her seat, she is heckled by a Reform candidate, who shouts loudly "where is the humility?" He is hastily ushered out of the room but the explosion of emotion shows just how hard-fought this election has been...
Yes, these overnight counts are no joke. Most of the candidates and activists have been awake for nearly 24 hours and running on adrenaline and coffee.
It's a ludicrous way of doing things.
We like it because we are impatient and enjoy the staying up all night picking at the results. But I am tired now. We're like kids who won't go to bed on Christmas Eve. Honestly, would we be any less happy if we counted during the day and started the declarations around tea time on Friday, giving us a whole weekend to wallow in stats? Friday counts would save political nerds from themselves.
Me. The thrill of election night is a big part of British politics.
Going to vote one day and having a change of Government the next, due to the counting overnight, is also quite inspirational regardless of who you vote for.
Well yes, emotionally yes, I agree with you. But this is one of these things where "I really like x" needlessly trumps "actually I would like y no less". Honestly, I am an old stick-in-the-mud for whom almost all change is bad. I love election nights. But rationally I know I would love election teatimes no less. Staying up past midnight is for young people.
I note the Conservatives have taken Westminster much as expected and have held Bexley perhaps with more ease than some imagined.
What we are seeing (from a Conservative and LD perspective) is both parties retreating to areas of strength and fortifying those in terms of local council seats. I suspect that will mean it will be as hard for the Conservatives to make gains from the Lib Dems at the next GE as it will for the LDs to make gains from the Conservatives.
There are, however, growing areas where neither party is relevant.
With almost all results in, the Tory vote in Bexley is now 37% - down from 51% last time. Reform is at 32%, from nowhere, and Labour on 19% down from 44%, with the Greens picking up 7%.
That the Tories have 29 seats (for 37%) to Reform's 7 (for 32%) is down to the voting system.
Arguably it's also down to Reform being politically naive and over confident and thinking they can win everywhere rather than targetting specific Wards.
Yes, much the same as the Greens.
Big vote shares do not always translate to seats under FPTP.
If HM opposition cannot gain seats when a government is this unpopular what chance do they have? They’ve been largely eclipsed.
At least an unpopular government has some cards to play. Nor sure what cards HM opposition have when other opposition parties are more popular .
I think your first statement ignores the fact that said opposition was in power for 14 years and has just been turfed out.
Johnathan is just attempting to shine the light elsewhere after Labour's destruction. It's all over for them, they just can't come to terms with being a one term government after 14 years of waiting.
Nah , Labour are in the shit this morning just only ever so slightly less in the shit than the Tories because they still have levers to pull. The Tories only strategy is to wait and hope.
Nice. The final words of The Count of Monte Cristo “ “Until the day when God will deign to reveal the future to man, all human wisdom is contained in these two words,—‘Wait and hope.’”
I note the Conservatives have taken Westminster much as expected and have held Bexley perhaps with more ease than some imagined.
What we are seeing (from a Conservative and LD perspective) is both parties retreating to areas of strength and fortifying those in terms of local council seats. I suspect that will mean it will be as hard for the Conservatives to make gains from the Lib Dems at the next GE as it will for the LDs to make gains from the Conservatives.
There are, however, growing areas where neither party is relevant.
With almost all results in, the Tory vote in Bexley is now 37% - down from 51% last time. Reform is at 32%, from nowhere, and Labour on 19% down from 44%, with the Greens picking up 7%.
That the Tories have 29 seats (for 37%) to Reform's 7 (for 32%) is down to the voting system.
The Tories need as many areas as possible where they remain ahead of Reform ands FPTP works for them, rather than against them.
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
Havering isn't really London though, is it. It's Essex and tbf, Reform campaigned on that basis.
You’re right, it is Essex. I lived there most of my life, still think of it as home, and wouldn’t call myself a Londoner.
Most of London isn't London. It's mostly been stolen from Middlesex (where I am from), Surrey, Essex and Kent.
There's an old marker at the top of the hill here demanding the boundary between Surrey and Kent... we live in Zone 2 Inner London, 15 minutes from Victoria station. It is London.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Cargo bikes for kids are generally a sign of well off, middle or upper class people. They tend to be expensive and work best when you live close to good schools.
Driving a "Chelsea Tractor" on the school run s seen as a bit chavy
Aren’t the cargo bikes like £5k? My car cost me less than that.
The absolute cheapest new Range Rover is about £42k.
My second hand Volkswagen Polo was £12k. £5k is nothing in the grand scheme of things.
My brand new Suzuki Swift set me back less than £13k just a couple of years ago. You can get second hand vehicles for considerably less than that.
£5k for most families is a hell of a lot of money.
Especially if you already have/need a vehicle then £5k for an additional form of transport is a luxury many can't afford.
Yes, if you can get a second hand Polo for £12k - which can transport four people and a lot of stuff anywhere in the country - then the concept of paying nearly half that for a cargo bike which can transport at most three people - two of whom must be small - and no stuff, or one person and a small amount of stuff, at most a few miles - and which you need somewhere in your house to store - is madness. Though of course we are not necessarily comparing like with like here and presumably a second hand cargo bike is considerably cheaper.
If HM opposition cannot gain seats when a government is this unpopular what chance do they have? They’ve been largely eclipsed.
At least an unpopular government has some cards to play. Nor sure what cards HM opposition have when other opposition parties are more popular .
I think your first statement ignores the fact that said opposition was in power for 14 years and has just been turfed out.
Johnathan is just attempting to shine the light elsewhere after Labour's destruction. It's all over for them, they just can't come to terms with being a one term government after 14 years of waiting.
Nah , Labour are in the shit this morning just only ever so slightly less in the shit than the Tories because they still have levers to pull. The Tories only strategy is to wait and hope.
Nice. The final words of The Count of Monte Cristo “ “Until the day when God will deign to reveal the future to man, all human wisdom is contained in these two words,—‘Wait and hope.’”
An observation: I know a lot of people who will be doing counts today. They are public sector workers, typically young, typically middle class. On the basis of my conversations with these archetypes, they objectively know that Reform exists in a vague Nigel-Farage-is-the-bogeyman way, but have never met a Reform voter, and don't fully accept that, except at the margins, real people are voting for them. Typically, despite working in a council, they aren't actually that politically engaged. It's going to be an odd experience for many of them piling up all these votes.
Seriously?
Yes, a lot of people who do the counting are local council staff but by no means all. Sometimes bank staff are called in because they can count quickly and students are asked to help move boxes.
As to the usual cliched, stereotyped nonsense about public sector workers,. it's incredible that anyone actually thinks that way.
I worked in local Government - public sector workers are no more or less politically engaged than anyone else - indeed,the most "right wing" people I ever encountered were council workers who recognised the inherent flaws in the system.
I’ve just listened to Sir Keir being interviewed. He simply doesn’t get it.
It sounds very in the bunker, the issue is just we arent going further and faster with our change agenda.....back to the bunker.
Starmer will have been buoyed up by talking heads and spreadsheet psephologists this morning suggesting that over the weekend, things will look slightly better (or at least less bad) for Labour.
in my 89th year, for only the third time in my life I have voted for a winning candidate! And I've voted every time I could!
Does that say something about a) my longevity, b) my choice of candidate or c) where I've chosen to live?
I managed to get into my 60s before ever voting for a winning candidate (although I had been an agent for winning candidates), but now it is the norm. How times change.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Cargo bikes for kids are generally a sign of well off, middle or upper class people. They tend to be expensive and work best when you live close to good schools.
Driving a "Chelsea Tractor" on the school run s seen as a bit chavy
Aren’t the cargo bikes like £5k? My car cost me less than that.
New, sure. But plenty around second hand these days as parents pass them on once their kids grow out of them.
On topic: Oxford has remained NOC - I expect Labour to maintain minority control. Had a rather depressing chat with the local Green candidate who was all in favour of housebuilding but was voting to prevent local landowners building any houses because they were the wrong kind of houses.
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
From the UK perspective to the layman that is not a crisis. It’s just another war in a far away land. It will become a crisis if the pumps start running dry but at present they have not.
Except that we already know that the pumps will start to run dry. It takes a month or more for O&G from the Gulf to get to the UK, and it stopped leaving the Gulf two months ago.
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
..Here at Havering, counting has been going on for 10 hours overnight and tempers are fraying. Reform UK has already got enough councillors to take control of its first London borough, although that's not official yet. As the Havering Residents Association chair Gillian Ford holds onto her seat, she is heckled by a Reform candidate, who shouts loudly "where is the humility?" He is hastily ushered out of the room but the explosion of emotion shows just how hard-fought this election has been...
Yes, these overnight counts are no joke. Most of the candidates and activists have been awake for nearly 24 hours and running on adrenaline and coffee.
It's a ludicrous way of doing things.
We like it because we are impatient and enjoy the staying up all night picking at the results. But I am tired now. We're like kids who won't go to bed on Christmas Eve. Honestly, would we be any less happy if we counted during the day and started the declarations around tea time on Friday, giving us a whole weekend to wallow in stats? Friday counts would save political nerds from themselves.
Some countries manage to get the count done in hours. The Hungarians a fews weeks back for example, though their polls close earlier and on a Sunday.
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
Havering isn't really London though, is it. It's Essex and tbf, Reform campaigned on that basis.
You’re right, it is Essex. I lived there most of my life, still think of it as home, and wouldn’t call myself a Londoner.
Most of London isn't London. It's mostly been stolen from Middlesex (where I am from), Surrey, Essex and Kent.
There's an old marker at the top of the hill here demanding the boundary between Surrey and Kent... we live in Zone 2 Inner London, 15 minutes from Victoria station. It is London.
Sherlock Holmes on where he was on a drive entirely in modern London;
“We are on the outskirts of Lee,” said my companion. “We have touched on three English counties in our short drive, starting in Middlesex, passing over an angle of Surrey, and ending in Kent. See that light among the trees? That is The Cedars, and beside that lamp sits a woman whose anxious ears have already, I have little doubt, caught the clink of our horse’s feet.”
The one thing Reform does not seem to be is a “national” party Mr Farage.
I think they're winning everywhere except London tbf, that makes them a national party. More so than the Lib Dems who do well in places like Surrey or Sussex but struggle everywhere else.
Reform have won Havering, technically Greater London even if they consider themselves Greater Essex
Havering isn't really London though, is it. It's Essex and tbf, Reform campaigned on that basis.
You’re right, it is Essex. I lived there most of my life, still think of it as home, and wouldn’t call myself a Londoner.
Most of London isn't London. It's mostly been stolen from Middlesex (where I am from), Surrey, Essex and Kent.
There's an old marker at the top of the hill here demanding the boundary between Surrey and Kent... we live in Zone 2 Inner London, 15 minutes from Victoria station. It is London.
Demarking not demanding... ignorant spell checker!
Speaking of top comedians, Jenrick on R4 atm. Ok, not top.
Never forget this odious man wanted to stop innocent children having a little Disney on the walls in the waiting room at a migration centre.
Because he was thinking about the 24 year old 'children' claiming to be 15. And there is a point about the process being serious. I don't think we are looking at kinder transport situations or the evacuation children in the war.
But fine, if you want to let that one thing feed your hate. I'd rather go for the corruption re housing...
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges The Labour Party has to face a simple reality this morning. If it want's to stop this man entering Downing Street it needs to find a new leader. If it can't, or won't, fine. But stop pretending Keir Starmer is the solution to Reform. He's actually Nigel Farage's best recruiting sergeant.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Cargo bikes for kids are generally a sign of well off, middle or upper class people. They tend to be expensive and work best when you live close to good schools.
Driving a "Chelsea Tractor" on the school run s seen as a bit chavy
Aren’t the cargo bikes like £5k? My car cost me less than that.
The absolute cheapest new Range Rover is about £42k.
My second hand Volkswagen Polo was £12k. £5k is nothing in the grand scheme of things.
My brand new Suzuki Swift set me back less than £13k just a couple of years ago. You can get second hand vehicles for considerably less than that.
£5k for most families is a hell of a lot of money.
Especially if you already have/need a vehicle then £5k for an additional form of transport is a luxury many can't afford.
A car?!! Aren't new Ferrari's like £200k!?!
You could always buy a brand new fashionable electric assisted cargo bike for £5k, or you could get a secondhand one for considerably less or a 2ndhand tandem for less than that. Cheaper, quicker for a 2 mile school run or shopping trip.
Comments
Driving a "Chelsea Tractor" on the school run s seen as a bit chavy
But the results so far are heavily skewed towards urban areas, where the Tories have relatively fewer votes and seats to lose. The incoming results from Hampshire hint that there may be a lot more bad news for the Tories to come...
Wonderfully derogatory and very British as an insult
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Obviously plenty on which to comment and much more as the day progresses.
From the London sanctum of Stodge Towers, the early results are playing to the old Stodge Political Adage for elections - "it's never as good as you hope and it's never as bad as you fear".
For the LDs, stunning results in Sutton (we never got to 50 Councillors when I was politically active in the 90s and early noughties) and Richmond are offset by the disappointment in Merton which conversely might be one of the best results so far for Labour.
For the Conservatives, disaster in Sutton, Richmond and Havering but a good result in Wandsworth and signs they might turn back Reform in places like Bexley and Bromley.
Labour did well in Merton and I thought Ealing was okay for them but today and especially Inner East London might be more "difficult".
NO word from Newham as yet - I suspect Mirza and the NIP have won big and if they haven't, Labour will have done incredibly well below the radar.
Reform UK has already got enough councillors to take control of its first London borough, although that's not official yet.
As the Havering Residents Association chair Gillian Ford holds onto her seat, she is heckled by a Reform candidate, who shouts loudly "where is the humility?"
He is hastily ushered out of the room but the explosion of emotion shows just how hard-fought this election has been...
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/councillors-ferrari-smashed-police-scrambled-33908975
It's a ludicrous way of doing things.
Driving an SUV to school is just plain irresponsible.
I haven't seen cheap Chinese knockoffs, yet.
The Christiana brand does make me laugh.
Here's a comedian witrh 'thoughts' meeting someone who knows what he's talking about. I guess the most interesting thing is that both were more or less working class. Difficult to imagine an equivalent today.
https://youtu.be/ylTnvLl4aIk?si=Vl4-MHp-6OjIv_fN
What we are seeing (from a Conservative and LD perspective) is both parties retreating to areas of strength and fortifying those in terms of local council seats. I suspect that will mean it will be as hard for the Conservatives to make gains from the Lib Dems at the next GE as it will for the LDs to make gains from the Conservatives.
There are, however, growing areas where neither party is relevant.
My second hand Volkswagen Polo was £12k. £5k is nothing in the grand scheme of things.
He can't even win a big majority in his own constituency. He can't win the country.
He can't even win a big majority in his own constituency. He can't win the country.
(Sorry, I couldn't resist being triggered.)
Reform are only going to win the next GE with 30% of the vote if the other parties and voters let them. Of course that is true of any outfit with 30%, but other parties may feel, come late 2028, that the case is different.
He is robotic without the charm of Marvin the Paranoid Android
That the Tories have 29 seats (for 37%) to Reform's 7 (for 32%) is down to the voting system.
They work well for people who can afford to live where there is easy access to the schools.
£5k for most families is a hell of a lot of money.
Especially if you already have/need a vehicle then £5k for an additional form of transport is a luxury many can't afford.
Going to vote one day and having a change of Government the next, due to the counting overnight, is also quite inspirational regardless of who you vote for.
Let's not forget either that some of the wealth that's accumulated is through the avoidance of UK taxes whilst retaining the rights and privileges of UK citizenship.
in my 89th year, for only the third time in my life I have voted for a winning candidate! And I've voted every time I could!
Does that say something about a) my longevity, b) my choice of candidate or c) where I've chosen to live?
The only people who can are the Trump and the Iranians and no one has real diplomatic or military leverage over either.
So there is nothing Starmer or Badenoch or Farage can do. We are all just spectators needing to brace for impact for the aviation fuel and diesel shortage.
Honestly, I am an old stick-in-the-mud for whom almost all change is bad. I love election nights. But rationally I know I would love election teatimes no less.
Staying up past midnight is for young people.
Big vote shares do not always translate to seats under FPTP.
Though of course we are not necessarily comparing like with like here and presumably a second hand cargo bike is considerably cheaper.
Yes, a lot of people who do the counting are local council staff but by no means all. Sometimes bank staff are called in because they can count quickly and students are asked to help move boxes.
As to the usual cliched, stereotyped nonsense about public sector workers,. it's incredible that anyone actually thinks that way.
I worked in local Government - public sector workers are no more or less politically engaged than anyone else - indeed,the most "right wing" people I ever encountered were council workers who recognised the inherent flaws in the system.
Be serious!
It's never as good as you hope or as bad as you fear.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/08/starmer-is-facing-the-end-days/
On topic: Oxford has remained NOC - I expect Labour to maintain minority control. Had a rather depressing chat with the local Green candidate who was all in favour of housebuilding but was voting to prevent local landowners building any houses because they were the wrong kind of houses.
Kind of summed up the Greens for me tbh.
“We are on the outskirts of Lee,” said my companion. “We have touched on three English counties in our short drive, starting in Middlesex, passing over an angle of Surrey, and ending in Kent. See that light among the trees? That is The Cedars, and beside that lamp sits a woman whose anxious ears have already, I have little doubt, caught the clink of our horse’s feet.”
But fine, if you want to let that one thing feed your hate. I'd rather go for the corruption re housing...
You could always buy a brand new fashionable electric assisted cargo bike for £5k, or you could get a secondhand one for considerably less or a 2ndhand tandem for less than that.
Cheaper, quicker for a 2 mile school run or shopping trip.