Mayday! A grim night for Labour and the Tories – politicalbetting.com
Mayday! A grim night for Labour and the Tories – politicalbetting.com
As we can see from the BBC graphic above it’s been a very impressive night for Reform and very bad for Labour and the Tories but the worst is yet to come, with fewer than a third of council reporting and Wales & Scotland devolved elections to come.
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Outside of London it looks utterly horrific though.
Tories have done very badly too - perhaps not quite as awfully as they could have done in some places in the South, but some of those vote totals in some wards in the Northern councils are tiny - they are losing their ability to compete entirely in some places. Wandsworth is a bad miss IMHO.
LDs probably decent, Greens underwhelming, Reform doing well (though still perhaps hampered by weaknesses in places?)
Con 24 LD 20 Ref 19. 10 to declare
Tories need 2 more wards to hold Bexley
It's been an utterly terrible night for Labour, and in line with expectations for the Tories - with some saves and wins.
Greens doing well but underperforming against expectations. Lib Dems doing well and better than expectations.
If you’re Labour/Tories looking at northern councils, it looks utterly cataclysmic. If you’re looking at London, it’s slightly more positive.
I don’t think either party can take tremendous cheer, but one thing they both do have in common is they are doing slightly better in some places than worst case scenario.
Ref 30
Lab 20
LD 17
Con 15
Grn 11
2022 PNSs (relates to most seats being defended):
Lab 35
Con 30
LD 19
Grn 11
(no Reform score)
if we look at 23/24 as well we can assume the average PNSs relating to all seat defences are a touch lower for Con, a touch higher for Grn.
The seat losses and gains for last year's rounds were mostly relative to the PNS's for 2021 which were:
Con 36
Lab 29
LD 17
Grn 10
So, it is somewhat harder for Labour to retain a seat it holds this year than last, whilst it is somewhat easier for the Tories.
Ladbrokes has wound up its local election markets and while Betfair’s are open, most have next to no money in them. There’s a little left for the LibDems ending up with more seats than the Tories at 1.2, if anyone fancies a gamble.
Essex person has spoken.
At least an unpopular government has some cards to play. Nor sure what cards HM opposition have when other opposition parties are more popular .
If regional variation is becoming a 'thing' I suggest it should be known as the Wapentake Effect.
I think I'd sooner have Leon....
It's thanks to his forays into the job of foreign secretary that he's managed to get these worst election results on record. His decision making has been woeful. He's managed to persuade even loyalists like me that enough is enough.
Get back to the Bar Keir....
That’s the same approach as we take when reporting the results of general elections and many experts think it’s the best way to gauge how the parties have performed from one election to another.
Some media organisations calculate change differently – they look at what party each councillor represented just before this year’s elections.
The difference between the two approaches is going to be unusually big this year. Lots of councillors have switched from one party to another or have left the party they were originally elected for to sit as independents.
In particular, many Conservative councillors have defected to Reform UK and lots of Labour councillors have switched to the Greens or independents. Reform have also won a lot of seats in by-elections.
So, the BBC is likely to show a higher number of seat losses for Labour and the Conservatives, and a higher number of gains for Reform UK and the Greens, than you might see elsewhere.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c1428pev1n0t
An island of sanity in a sea of stupidity.
Sir Keir must go.
https://www.markpack.org.uk/151986/annabel-mullin-advance/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6-UyEXJldc
No jokes but five minutes on politics, including the demise of Labour & Conservatives, and also Democrats & Republicans.
Voters: Non!
I think they have enough to spin - let us listen and learn etc.
Labour has plenty of time for a recovery and to show results. But Sir Keir just sits there and doing what exactly?
What is the plan, what is he trying to do? Just being PM isn’t an answer.
A lesson for those who sometimes assume that a high Reform vote share automatically means a giant seat haul.
Reform +1,419 vs consensus +1,625 - slightly underperforming
Labour -1,231 vs consensus -1,590 - losing badly, but less than feared
Conservatives -547 vs consensus -652 - holding up a little better than expected
Green +685 vs consensus +588 - outperforming
LD +203 vs consensus +186 - on track
Extrapolated vs trimmed mean of 10 forecasters.
https://x.com/DamianSurvation/status/2052641940756103235?s=20
And yes, take away the racism and leadership cult and HRA (hate potholes and new buildings, love low taxes) do a similar vibe to the rich bit of Reform.
This time, Reform and the Greens were coming off the back of a decent GE, so were obviously the NOTAs. The surprise for me is how the Lib Dem’s haven’t prospered, given an unpopular Labour govt and a wounded Tory party who’ve just been thrown out
For fourteen years they had lived in their own comfort zone that the country's problems were all because of 'Tory austerity' and 'Tory incompetence'.
Indeed, in a lot of Councils the current leadership will be seeing an iceberg looming in the distance for next year - they’ll have lost lots of their colleagues but they won’t be ceding control yet.
Mind you, turkeys DO sometimes vote for Christmas, and many of the tax rises are pretty well disguised.
you can basically disregard any commentator who doesn’t understand the below
https://x.com/steamedhamms/status/2052645908668445136?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Very early days but John Curtice and Michael Thrasher both say Labour are so far performing less badly than expected
Curtice tells BBC: “Labour's rate of seat loss were to continue to the end of tomorrow, they could be looking at losses of just over 1200 seats, rather less than some anticipated”
There's some very strong regional and other variations going on, which suggests that there's some demographic and/or socio-economic factors that are strongly correlated with party support - so you'd think that would make it possible for an MRP to do a decent job with the next general election, for all that it looks like a mess with five parties close together in national vote share.
Doesn’t really imply a majority to me but maybe with a split vote they come through the middle.
I think a liberal Tory has a very good chance next time around for mayor though.
The lying grifter Farage being rewarded by those who still seem to think it was all a marvellous idea !
Some good Tory results in areas like Bexley, Harlow, Broxbourne and Fareham too which the Tories held where Reform would have hoped to take the council. Excellent Tory results in central London as well with the Tories winning control of Westminster council from Labour, holding Kensington and Chelsea and winning most seats in Wandsworth
The question on the left/centre is how easily Labour can try and win back those voters for another go, so as to build a coalition that can defeat that. Right now, you’d like them to be doing much better in red wall seats for them to have that chance. But we still have a very uncertain outlook.
“When voters send a message like this we must reflect and we must respond," he says.
The "vast majority of people" do understand the "huge challenges" facing the country, including "a series of economic shocks" and a "difficult international situation", he says.
But he says voters "still want to see the change that we promised".
"They know the status quo is letting them down and they’re frustrated, they don’t feel the changes.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c1428pev1n0t
Who is getting fired this time ;-)
We may be seeing Labour/Tories benefiting from their remaining support being concentrated among higher turnout demographics.