Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt. But they shouldn't rush it.
IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him
Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.
I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer. Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.
Why is it, I wonder.
I, too, would like an answer to this question. The level of dislike for Starmer seems entirely out of proportion with anything he or his party have actually done.
Maybe it’s because he’s so bland that people project things onto him? If you’re seen as standing for nothing in particular then you end up with what’s said about you by your political enemies being the things that come to mind when people think of you. As party leader you’re inevitably held responsible for all the bad stuff & if you have no presence to counter that you end up being the Christmas tree on which everyone gets to hang their personal hates.
Thoughts?
The left blame him because he was in the room when Corbyn shot himself in the foot.
The right blame him because he was in the room when Boris shot himself in the groin.
Everyone hates him because, like the rest of them, he doesn't have a working solution to our problems. And he's crap at politics, and has an annoying voice.
Worst of all, he's the least bad option right now.
The Centrists hate him because they thought all was needed was that a sensible Labour person took over as PM, and it turned out that wasn't the case.
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
What the fuck do you expect him to do? A bit of token Iran bombing?
A token aircraft carrier group in the region might have been a good idea, but it appears the UK Navy can’t field more than a single frigate at the moment.
How would that change anything? What are they going to do that the Lincoln and Bush can't do already?
Show some solidarity with those trying to sort the problem.
That they caused, whilst insulting us every step of the way. They can fuck right off.
Some pretty graphs to admire as there is nothing much happening over the next couple of days. One imagines the Boriswave (won by India and Nigeria) charts will be carefully studied by Big Nige (or tweeted by his minions while the main man relaxes with a pint and a bank statement).
The decline in UK nationals' employment from 2022 onwards might explain the rise of the NOTA parties, decline of the Tories and disillusionment with Labour (and Starmer in particular).
It’s really close currently between Labour , Tory and the Lib Dem’s for second place
Could be quite important in terms of party spin .
Also true, and important, as you say. You’re on a roll.
I’m surprised you can contain your excitement at Reforms results so far . Must be a bit difficult though living where you do ? Do they have posh flats that meet your standards in Havering !
The Tories have so far done okay but there’s a lot of councils coming up where they could suffer huge losses .
The joy of Friday counting in the majority of councils means we have much more fun to come in here !
Quite so. We are only about 30% of the way into this with big narrative twists almost certainly waiting for us
So far I’d have it like this
Reform: about as good as expected, they’ll be happy
Labour: about as bad as expected, they’ll be unhappy
Tories: slightly better than expected, but the expectations were grim, so they’ll be feeling “suicidal but chirpy”
Greens: definitely underperforming, compared to high expectations. Did Zak tup the mutt?
Lib Dems: no gives a fuck, not even them anymore
The Scottish and Welsh Parliaments will overshadow a lot of today's local council results.
They should embargo everything until it's all counted, probably Saturday morning, save the cost of overnight counting. Before most of the results are in the media have created their fictional narrative and there's no shifting it, despite the actual resullts.
Vote shares across Hampshire: Tory 28%, Reform 27%, LibDem 25%, Green 11%, Lab 7%.
For a General Election I reckon that's great news for the LibDems, who are in position and have the campaigning capacity to pull over a good chunk of those Green and Labour voters
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
What the fuck do you expect him to do? A bit of token Iran bombing?
A token aircraft carrier group in the region might have been a good idea, but it appears the UK Navy can’t field more than a single frigate at the moment.
How would that change anything? What are they going to do that the Lincoln and Bush can't do already?
Show some solidarity with those trying to sort the problem.
That they caused, whilst insulting us every step of the way. They can fuck right off.
Remind me again who’s sending bombs into my city?
Really you should blame your man Trump for starting something he is unwilling to finish, but that’s something you refuse to do.
Iran wouldn’t be bombing your city if they hadn’t been attacked first. I make no comment on the rights or wrongs of that action but you can’t blame them for fighting back.
Some pretty graphs to admire as there is nothing much happening over the next couple of days. One imagines the Boriswave (won by India and Nigeria) charts will be carefully studied by Big Nige (or tweeted by his minions while the main man relaxes with a pint and a bank statement).
The decline in UK nationals' employment from 2022 onwards might explain the rise of the NOTA parties, decline of the Tories and disillusionment with Labour (and Starmer in particular).
Many moons ago I wrote an article for PB on this very subject as the reason for the rise of Trump in the US.
The Tories have so far done okay but there’s a lot of councils coming up where they could suffer huge losses .
The joy of Friday counting in the majority of councils means we have much more fun to come in here !
Quite so. We are only about 30% of the way into this with big narrative twists almost certainly waiting for us
So far I’d have it like this
Reform: about as good as expected, they’ll be happy
Labour: about as bad as expected, they’ll be unhappy
Tories: slightly better than expected, but the expectations were grim, so they’ll be feeling “suicidal but chirpy”
Greens: definitely underperforming, compared to high expectations. Did Zak tup the mutt?
Lib Dems: no gives a fuck, not even them anymore
The Scottish and Welsh Parliaments will overshadow a lot of today's local council results.
Yes, exactly
Labour look very likely to lose Wales for the first time ever. That’s going to be traumatic and, worse, it seems likely they won’t even be the opposition. They could come third. Or even lower
It’s THAT kind of emotional shock which might trigger a move against Skyr
“Verdict from one former councillor on the state of play in Newcastle: 'Reform will be the biggest party but not gain a majority, Labour will be reduced to single figures, and a LD-Green coalition won’t quite reach a majority.‘“
I note the Conservatives have taken Westminster much as expected and have held Bexley perhaps with more ease than some imagined.
What we are seeing (from a Conservative and LD perspective) is both parties retreating to areas of strength and fortifying those in terms of local council seats. I suspect that will mean it will be as hard for the Conservatives to make gains from the Lib Dems at the next GE as it will for the LDs to make gains from the Conservatives.
There are, however, growing areas where neither party is relevant.
With almost all results in, the Tory vote in Bexley is now 37% - down from 51% last time. Reform is at 32%, from nowhere, and Labour on 19% down from 44%, with the Greens picking up 7%.
That the Tories have 29 seats (for 37%) to Reform's 7 (for 32%) is down to the voting system.
Arguably it's also down to Reform being politically naive and over confident and thinking they can win everywhere rather than targetting specific Wards.
My impression is that the Reform campaign relied heavily upon national mailshots from Farage, presumably funded by some of the big donations Reform is getting nationally, and the beyond that it was entirely up to individual candidates whether they made any effort in their own ward. I don't sense there's an effective campaiging organisation in between Reform HQ and individual wards - at constituency or council level - of the sort that the established parties will have.
It will be interesting to see whether Reform manages to build effective local organisations, and whether enough of their members are up for all the grunt admin and committee work on wet winter evenings that it will take to build and maintain this?
Pretty much the case in this bit of Romford. National mailshots from Nigel, and ANDREW ROSINDELL endorses these candidates, who said very little.
Anyway, they have a mandate, but for what? Hexit ain't gonna happen, so they now have another council that is both frugal and bust.
Early whispers from the island's count: Turnout looks decent with over 80% of PVs returned. Reform is polling well across the island and a number of wards are said to look close; the Tories seem downcast and likely face significant losses; a few of the independents are confident they've polled reasonably well. The Greens think their vote is up, but I'm not convinced this will translate into seats.
The Tories have so far done okay but there’s a lot of councils coming up where they could suffer huge losses .
The joy of Friday counting in the majority of councils means we have much more fun to come in here !
Quite so. We are only about 30% of the way into this with big narrative twists almost certainly waiting for us
So far I’d have it like this
Reform: about as good as expected, they’ll be happy
Labour: about as bad as expected, they’ll be unhappy
Tories: slightly better than expected, but the expectations were grim, so they’ll be feeling “suicidal but chirpy”
Greens: definitely underperforming, compared to high expectations. Did Zak tup the mutt?
Lib Dems: no gives a fuck, not even them anymore
The Scottish and Welsh Parliaments will overshadow a lot of today's local council results.
They should embargo everything until it's all counted, probably Saturday morning, save the cost of overnight counting. Before most of the results are in the media have created their fictional narrative and there's no shifting it, despite the actual resullts.
If this stuff is important (and it is), then it should be announced as soon as possible so it's not overshadowed as yesterday's news.
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
What the fuck do you expect him to do? A bit of token Iran bombing?
A token aircraft carrier group in the region might have been a good idea, but it appears the UK Navy can’t field more than a single frigate at the moment.
How would that change anything? What are they going to do that the Lincoln and Bush can't do already?
Show some solidarity with those trying to sort the problem.
That they caused, whilst insulting us every step of the way. They can fuck right off.
Remind me again who’s sending bombs into my city?
Really you should blame your man Trump for starting something he is unwilling to finish, but that’s something you refuse to do.
Iran wouldn’t be bombing your city if they hadn’t been attacked first. I make no comment on the rights or wrongs of that action but you can’t blame them for fighting back.
Why should country C be involved in a war between countries A and B?
Europe underestimates the willingness in the Middle East to finally deal once and for all with the Iran problem. Perhaps the US does too.
Early whispers from the island's count: Turnout looks decent with over 80% of PVs returned. Reform is polling well across the island and a number of wards are said to look close; the Tories seem downcast and likely face significant losses; a few of the independents are confident they've polled reasonably well.
What’s your expected result? You must know the local sitch pretty well
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
What the fuck do you expect him to do? A bit of token Iran bombing?
A token aircraft carrier group in the region might have been a good idea, but it appears the UK Navy can’t field more than a single frigate at the moment.
How would that change anything? What are they going to do that the Lincoln and Bush can't do already?
Show some solidarity with those trying to sort the problem.
That they caused, whilst insulting us every step of the way. They can fuck right off.
Remind me again who’s sending bombs into my city?
Really you should blame your man Trump for starting something he is unwilling to finish, but that’s something you refuse to do.
Iran wouldn’t be bombing your city if they hadn’t been attacked first. I make no comment on the rights or wrongs of that action but you can’t blame them for fighting back.
Why should country C be involved in a war between countries A and B?
Europe underestimates the willingness in the Middle East to finally deal once and for all with the Iran problem. Perhaps the US does too.
Well then maybe the Middle East should deal with it then instead of whining about it.
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
What the fuck do you expect him to do? A bit of token Iran bombing?
A token aircraft carrier group in the region might have been a good idea, but it appears the UK Navy can’t field more than a single frigate at the moment.
There are two separate issues here. Are the UK's military resources massively underfunded and under developed? To my mind clearly yes.
And if they were not? If they were, for example, at the level of the early 1980s, would we then be wanting to send anything down to the Middle East? To my mind, no. Even if we could send forces in support of the American adventure we still should not.
That’s fair comment, but when you’re actually in the theatre of operations a token British ship would make a difference politically.
It also feeds into Trump’s narrative of Europe being dependent on the US for military support.
He would maintain that narrative no matter what. Fuck him.
Quite rightly the UK has a long tradition of not supporting other countries in their overseas advantures (with some sadly notable exceptions). Churchill refused US demands to help the French at Dien Bien Phu, Wilson refused to get involved in Vietnam and now Starmer has (mostly) refused to get involved in Iran - although he has sadly backtracked a bit on this. This is probably the most statesman like and sensible decision Starmer has taken in his whole tenure.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Cargo bikes for kids are generally a sign of well off, middle or upper class people. They tend to be expensive and work best when you live close to good schools.
Driving a "Chelsea Tractor" on the school run s seen as a bit chavy
Aren’t the cargo bikes like £5k? My car cost me less than that.
The absolute cheapest new Range Rover is about £42k.
My second hand Volkswagen Polo was £12k. £5k is nothing in the grand scheme of things.
My brand new Suzuki Swift set me back less than £13k just a couple of years ago. You can get second hand vehicles for considerably less than that.
£5k for most families is a hell of a lot of money.
Especially if you already have/need a vehicle then £5k for an additional form of transport is a luxury many can't afford.
A lot of families in London wont have a car in addition to a “cargo bike”. I don’t dispute that £5k is a hell of a lot of money but let’s not pretend it’s the height of luxury. Farage’s pals hand him £5m like it’s nothing.
By the way, the list price for a 2024 Suzuki Swift is over £19k.
PB is so out of touch
Unsurprising I'm the Ref voter. Most I've ever spent on a car is £2k!
Vote shares across Hampshire: Tory 28%, Reform 27%, LibDem 25%, Green 11%, Lab 7%.
For a General Election I reckon that's great news for the LibDems, who are in position and have the campaigning capacity to pull over a good chunk of those Green and Labour voters
It also suggests a stubborn clinginess of the Tory vote in parts of the country. Clearly not an election winning vote, clearly not a vote they’ll be happy with, but if Reform are going to win a majority they need to be converting more of these voters. If they can’t stop the Tories taking a plurality of the vote here in a local election it suggests the Tories are stemming the tide now in places. A long way back for them, and FPTP still won’t flatter them, but not out for the count.
Far be it from me to doubt the great man, and his analysis is from his ‘key wards’ surely in places like Tameside and Halton where we saw massive drops in Labour votes and proportionate increases in Reform votes this just cannot be correct ?
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
What the fuck do you expect him to do? A bit of token Iran bombing?
A token aircraft carrier group in the region might have been a good idea, but it appears the UK Navy can’t field more than a single frigate at the moment.
How would that change anything? What are they going to do that the Lincoln and Bush can't do already?
Show some solidarity with those trying to sort the problem.
That they caused, whilst insulting us every step of the way. They can fuck right off.
Remind me again who’s sending bombs into my city?
Really you should blame your man Trump for starting something he is unwilling to finish, but that’s something you refuse to do.
Iran wouldn’t be bombing your city if they hadn’t been attacked first. I make no comment on the rights or wrongs of that action but you can’t blame them for fighting back.
Why should country C be involved in a war between countries A and B?
Because the US are launching combat operations from Al Dhafra which is in "Country C".
Vote shares across Hampshire: Tory 28%, Reform 27%, LibDem 25%, Green 11%, Lab 7%.
For a General Election I reckon that's great news for the LibDems, who are in position and have the campaigning capacity to pull over a good chunk of those Green and Labour voters
Perhaps a bar chart may be of use? Possibly one with an arrow?
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
What the fuck do you expect him to do? A bit of token Iran bombing?
A token aircraft carrier group in the region might have been a good idea, but it appears the UK Navy can’t field more than a single frigate at the moment.
What would be the point of that - they sit there doing nothing costing an absolute fortune or they have to get involved in active hostilities to justify it also costing a fortune and creating even more problems down the line.
We have plenty of airbases to use to cover the region. Our Navy should solely be concentrating on the North Sea and North Atlantic.
Or at least the English channel so that these shadow ships from Russia don't come through it every day with impunity.
Well that’s defintely true.
A really smart UK government would have worked with the US to tie action in Iran to action in Ukraine.
Worked with present US government? You don't have to be smart to do that; just corrupt.
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
What the fuck do you expect him to do? A bit of token Iran bombing?
A token aircraft carrier group in the region might have been a good idea, but it appears the UK Navy can’t field more than a single frigate at the moment.
How would that change anything? What are they going to do that the Lincoln and Bush can't do already?
Show some solidarity with those trying to sort the problem.
That they caused, whilst insulting us every step of the way. They can fuck right off.
Remind me again who’s sending bombs into my city?
Really you should blame your man Trump for starting something he is unwilling to finish, but that’s something you refuse to do.
Iran wouldn’t be bombing your city if they hadn’t been attacked first. I make no comment on the rights or wrongs of that action but you can’t blame them for fighting back.
Why should country C be involved in a war between countries A and B?
Europe underestimates the willingness in the Middle East to finally deal once and for all with the Iran problem. Perhaps the US does too.
Well then maybe the Middle East should deal with it then instead of whining about it.
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
What the fuck do you expect him to do? A bit of token Iran bombing?
A token aircraft carrier group in the region might have been a good idea, but it appears the UK Navy can’t field more than a single frigate at the moment.
How would that change anything? What are they going to do that the Lincoln and Bush can't do already?
Show some solidarity with those trying to sort the problem.
That they caused, whilst insulting us every step of the way. They can fuck right off.
Remind me again who’s sending bombs into my city?
And elsewhere. And the global economy getting a pasting. And little focus on a realistic negotiated settlement which in any case is likely to be worse than was on offer beforehand. It's an utter shambles.
Perhaps war should actually be a last resort after all. Just a thought.
I'm at the Camden count. We've just had the turnout announced at 48%, which is high. Hard to know results yet, but I think Greens doing well. Lots of split voting. Saw someone vote for 2 Greens and me as their only LibDem vote. Good to have a personal vote!
Early whispers from the island's count: Turnout looks decent with over 80% of PVs returned. Reform is polling well across the island and a number of wards are said to look close; the Tories seem downcast and likely face significant losses; a few of the independents are confident they've polled reasonably well.
What’s your expected result? You must know the local sitch pretty well
The two likely outcomes were a Reform majority or a Reform largest party with the council run by the independents supported by a rag tag of the other political parties. Expectations until now were that the former is more likely; obviously I've been hoping for the latter, and the eaarly whispers from the count plus the results coming in from elsewhere mean there's still a decent chance of heading Reform off. At the count everyone is saying lots of wards are close - but that's the sort of thing people tend to say when they haven't a clue. Whatever, it'll be a bad night for the Tories.
Far be it from me to doubt the great man, and his analysis is from his ‘key wards’ surely in places like Tameside and Halton where we saw massive drops in Labour votes and proportionate increases in Reform votes this just cannot be correct ?
Far be it from me to doubt the great man, and his analysis is from his ‘key wards’ surely in places like Tameside and Halton where we saw massive drops in Labour votes and proportionate increases in Reform votes this just cannot be correct ?
That's plausible. Curtice's theory only works in areas where there are enough Greens and Cons to make a difference. In areas where there weren't any/many before the election, it's a straight Lab->Ref swap, as you say. And, of course, those seats are Labour heartlands...
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
What the fuck do you expect him to do? A bit of token Iran bombing?
A token aircraft carrier group in the region might have been a good idea, but it appears the UK Navy can’t field more than a single frigate at the moment.
How would that change anything? What are they going to do that the Lincoln and Bush can't do already?
Show some solidarity with those trying to sort the problem.
That they caused, whilst insulting us every step of the way. They can fuck right off.
Remind me again who’s sending bombs into my city?
Really you should blame your man Trump for starting something he is unwilling to finish, but that’s something you refuse to do.
Iran wouldn’t be bombing your city if they hadn’t been attacked first. I make no comment on the rights or wrongs of that action but you can’t blame them for fighting back.
Why should country C be involved in a war between countries A and B?
Europe underestimates the willingness in the Middle East to finally deal once and for all with the Iran problem. Perhaps the US does too.
The forthcoming fuel shortage adds to this.
Are countries A and B Iran and Israel, and country C the US.
Vote shares across Hampshire: Tory 28%, Reform 27%, LibDem 25%, Green 11%, Lab 7%.
For a General Election I reckon that's great news for the LibDems, who are in position and have the campaigning capacity to pull over a good chunk of those Green and Labour voters
I disagree entirely. LDs are likely to really suffer in an air war campaign when the oxygen is being sucked up by Reform and Green....
Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt. But they shouldn't rush it.
IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him
Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.
I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer. Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.
Why is it, I wonder.
I, too, would like an answer to this question. The level of dislike for Starmer seems entirely out of proportion with anything he or his party have actually done.
Maybe it’s because he’s so bland that people project things onto him? If you’re seen as standing for nothing in particular then you end up with what’s said about you by your political enemies being the things that come to mind when people think of you. As party leader you’re inevitably held responsible for all the bad stuff & if you have no presence to counter that you end up being the Christmas tree on which everyone gets to hang their personal hates.
Thoughts?
The left blame him because he was in the room when Corbyn shot himself in the foot.
The right blame him because he was in the room when Boris shot himself in the groin.
Everyone hates him because, like the rest of them, he doesn't have a working solution to our problems. And he's crap at politics, and has an annoying voice.
Worst of all, he's the least bad option right now.
The Centrists hate him because they thought all was needed was that a sensible Labour person took over as PM, and it turned out that wasn't the case.
My perception is that the hate is mostly coming from the left / right - current Green & Reform voters? Centrists just find him uninspiring.
Early whispers from the island's count: Turnout looks decent with over 80% of PVs returned. Reform is polling well across the island and a number of wards are said to look close; the Tories seem downcast and likely face significant losses; a few of the independents are confident they've polled reasonably well.
What’s your expected result? You must know the local sitch pretty well
The two likely outcomes were a Reform majority or a Reform largest party with the council run by the independents supported by a rag tag of the other political parties. Expectations until now were that the former is more likely; obviously I've been hoping for the latter, and the eaarly whispers from the count plus the results coming in from elsewhere mean there's still a decent chance of heading Reform off. At the count everyone is saying lots of wards are close - but that's the sort of thing people tend to say when they haven't a clue. Whatever, it'll be a bad night for the Tories.
Interesting
I can’t believe I’ve become such a politics nerd I’m seriously absorbed in the possible local election results in the Isle of Wight, but so it is
To be fair to all of us nerds on here, this is a genuinely unprecedented and epochal local UK election (with the added drama of Wales and Scotland). We are seeing the definite breakthrough of a brand new party - Reform, and the potential breakthrough of a sort-of new party - the Greens. And the arrival of five, six, seven party politics across the country
This is something truly new, in a very old country. It heralds the end of FPTP as we’ve known it
Far be it from me to doubt the great man, and his analysis is from his ‘key wards’ surely in places like Tameside and Halton where we saw massive drops in Labour votes and proportionate increases in Reform votes this just cannot be correct ?
Vote shares across Hampshire: Tory 28%, Reform 27%, LibDem 25%, Green 11%, Lab 7%.
For a General Election I reckon that's great news for the LibDems, who are in position and have the campaigning capacity to pull over a good chunk of those Green and Labour voters
I disagree entirely. LDs are likely to really suffer in an air war campaign when the oxygen is being sucked up by Reform and Green....
They suffered in the air war during 2024, yet pulled in a whole batch of gains by effective campaigning in those Home County seats, winning swings way higher than expectations such that most of the LibDem MPs now have surprisingly large majorities
Far be it from me to doubt the great man, and his analysis is from his ‘key wards’ surely in places like Tameside and Halton where we saw massive drops in Labour votes and proportionate increases in Reform votes this just cannot be correct ?
That's plausible. Curtice's theory only works in areas where there are enough Greens and Cons to make a difference. In areas where there weren't any/many before the election, it's a straight Lab->Ref swap, as you say. And, of course, those seats are Labour heartlands...
There's also an enthusiasm shift, so Reform will be mobilising votes that normally don't bother and Labour will have seen a drop in turnout, but that effect is probably small.
Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt. But they shouldn't rush it.
IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him
Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.
I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer. Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.
Why is it, I wonder.
I, too, would like an answer to this question. The level of dislike for Starmer seems entirely out of proportion with anything he or his party have actually done.
Maybe it’s because he’s so bland that people project things onto him? If you’re seen as standing for nothing in particular then you end up with what’s said about you by your political enemies being the things that come to mind when people think of you. As party leader you’re inevitably held responsible for all the bad stuff & if you have no presence to counter that you end up being the Christmas tree on which everyone gets to hang their personal hates.
Thoughts?
The left blame him because he was in the room when Corbyn shot himself in the foot.
The right blame him because he was in the room when Boris shot himself in the groin.
Everyone hates him because, like the rest of them, he doesn't have a working solution to our problems. And he's crap at politics, and has an annoying voice.
Worst of all, he's the least bad option right now.
The Centrists hate him because they thought all was needed was that a sensible Labour person took over as PM, and it turned out that wasn't the case.
My perception is that the hate is mostly coming from the left / right - current Green & Reform voters? Centrists just find him uninspiring.
No. My friend last night in the pub is as solidly centre left as they come. Welsh background. Cambridge education. Remainer
Started off quite supportive of Skyr, is now brutally contemptuous
His view is that Starmer panders to the right but doesn’t even do it very well, and is utterly lacking in vision, insight, charisma. And is petty and greedy
Far be it from me to doubt the great man, and his analysis is from his ‘key wards’ surely in places like Tameside and Halton where we saw massive drops in Labour votes and proportionate increases in Reform votes this just cannot be correct ?
That's plausible. Curtice's theory only works in areas where there are enough Greens and Cons to make a difference. In areas where there weren't any/many before the election, it's a straight Lab->Ref swap, as you say. And, of course, those seats are Labour heartlands...
There's also an enthusiasm shift, so Reform will be mobilising votes that normally don't bother and Labour will have seen a drop in turnout, but that effect is probably small.
Also a good point. I'm forgetting DidNotVote (DNV)->Ref switchers
Far be it from me to doubt the great man, and his analysis is from his ‘key wards’ surely in places like Tameside and Halton where we saw massive drops in Labour votes and proportionate increases in Reform votes this just cannot be correct ?
Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt. But they shouldn't rush it.
IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him
Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.
I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer. Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.
Why is it, I wonder.
I, too, would like an answer to this question. The level of dislike for Starmer seems entirely out of proportion with anything he or his party have actually done.
Maybe it’s because he’s so bland that people project things onto him? If you’re seen as standing for nothing in particular then you end up with what’s said about you by your political enemies being the things that come to mind when people think of you. As party leader you’re inevitably held responsible for all the bad stuff & if you have no presence to counter that you end up being the Christmas tree on which everyone gets to hang their personal hates.
Thoughts?
The left blame him because he was in the room when Corbyn shot himself in the foot.
The right blame him because he was in the room when Boris shot himself in the groin.
Everyone hates him because, like the rest of them, he doesn't have a working solution to our problems. And he's crap at politics, and has an annoying voice.
Worst of all, he's the least bad option right now.
The Centrists hate him because they thought all was needed was that a sensible Labour person took over as PM, and it turned out that wasn't the case.
My perception is that the hate is mostly coming from the left / right - current Green & Reform voters? Centrists just find him uninspiring.
The focus groups and polling consistently report he really does have a unique positiion that he is disliked through to hated across the board not just far left or right. Unlike even Boris post partygate, he has no fan club. He appears to have magic ability to make people really hate him other things most other politicians would be fine. The polling companies have reported even when they have asked what about.decision on Iran, the public at best react with yeap he got that right before then ranting about his other things.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Cargo bikes for kids are generally a sign of well off, middle or upper class people. They tend to be expensive and work best when you live close to good schools.
Driving a "Chelsea Tractor" on the school run s seen as a bit chavy
Aren’t the cargo bikes like £5k? My car cost me less than that.
The absolute cheapest new Range Rover is about £42k.
My second hand Volkswagen Polo was £12k. £5k is nothing in the grand scheme of things.
My brand new Suzuki Swift set me back less than £13k just a couple of years ago. You can get second hand vehicles for considerably less than that.
£5k for most families is a hell of a lot of money.
Especially if you already have/need a vehicle then £5k for an additional form of transport is a luxury many can't afford.
A lot of families in London wont have a car in addition to a “cargo bike”. I don’t dispute that £5k is a hell of a lot of money but let’s not pretend it’s the height of luxury. Farage’s pals hand him £5m like it’s nothing.
By the way, the list price for a 2024 Suzuki Swift is over £19k.
PB is so out of touch
Only on PB could a 20 grand second car (plus insurance, tax, fuel, parking etc etc) be a cheaper option than getting a £5k cargo bike.
It’s certainly what we’ll do if we have children - the bigger challenge will be finding a family sized saloon/estate at a reasonable price.
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
What the fuck do you expect him to do? A bit of token Iran bombing?
A token aircraft carrier group in the region might have been a good idea, but it appears the UK Navy can’t field more than a single frigate at the moment.
There are two separate issues here. Are the UK's military resources massively underfunded and under developed? To my mind clearly yes.
And if they were not? If they were, for example, at the level of the early 1980s, would we then be wanting to send anything down to the Middle East? To my mind, no. Even if we could send forces in support of the American adventure we still should not.
That’s fair comment, but when you’re actually in the theatre of operations a token British ship would make a difference politically.
It also feeds into Trump’s narrative of Europe being dependent on the US for military support.
He would maintain that narrative no matter what. Fuck him.
Quite rightly the UK has a long tradition of not supporting other countries in their overseas advantures (with some sadly notable exceptions). Churchill refused US demands to help the French at Dien Bien Phu, Wilson refused to get involved in Vietnam and now Starmer has (mostly) refused to get involved in Iran - although he has sadly backtracked a bit on this. This is probably the most statesman like and sensible decision Starmer has taken in his whole tenure.
It doesn't speak well for Starmer that reportedly his cabinet pushed him into it.
Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt. But they shouldn't rush it.
IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him
Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.
I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer. Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.
Why is it, I wonder.
I, too, would like an answer to this question. The level of dislike for Starmer seems entirely out of proportion with anything he or his party have actually done.
Maybe it’s because he’s so bland that people project things onto him? If you’re seen as standing for nothing in particular then you end up with what’s said about you by your political enemies being the things that come to mind when people think of you. As party leader you’re inevitably held responsible for all the bad stuff & if you have no presence to counter that you end up being the Christmas tree on which everyone gets to hang their personal hates.
Thoughts?
The left blame him because he was in the room when Corbyn shot himself in the foot.
The right blame him because he was in the room when Boris shot himself in the groin.
Everyone hates him because, like the rest of them, he doesn't have a working solution to our problems. And he's crap at politics, and has an annoying voice.
Worst of all, he's the least bad option right now.
The Centrists hate him because they thought all was needed was that a sensible Labour person took over as PM, and it turned out that wasn't the case.
My perception is that the hate is mostly coming from the left / right - current Green & Reform voters? Centrists just find him uninspiring.
No. My friend last night in the pub is as solidly centre left as they come. Welsh background. Cambridge education. Remainer
Started off quite supportive of Skyr, is now brutally contemptuous
His view is that Starmer panders to the right but doesn’t even do it very well, and is utterly lacking in vision, insight, charisma. And is petty and greedy
I found it hard to argue
As a 'centrist' but interested in radical changes (from left and right ideas) rather than status quo, the thing that frustrates me most is that clearly there are big issues to be addressed and Labour have a massive majority which should enable them to do that. With a few notable exceptions, they are not.
ETA: I don't feel all that strongly on Starmer though. He's clearly not up to it, but I'm not sure who is!
E2TA: And frustrated as he's sinking centrist politics by being useless and being tagged as such. We're likely to see a move to more ideological, I suspect
Sir Keir takes responsibility. So is he resigning?
No, so far the results are actually slightly better than expected for Labour even if still bad. Starmer can say Labour have clearly beaten the Greens most likely and are neck and neck with the Tories for second despite significant losses to Reform but Reform not at the top end of the gains they wanted either
None of this matters. Are Labour likely to win the next election with KS in charge? No.
Coming second is of no use to anyone.
Likely? It’s impossible with Sir Keir.
Nothing is impossible
No it really is with him.
There could be some huge national crisis that becomes the making of him.
In case he hasn’t realised, the Straight of Hormuz is mostly blocked by the Iranians at the moment, and there’s going to be a lack of deisel and aviation fuel, leading to millions of holidays cancelled this summer if it’s not resolved quickly. So what’s his strategy to fix the problem?
What the fuck do you expect him to do? A bit of token Iran bombing?
A token aircraft carrier group in the region might have been a good idea, but it appears the UK Navy can’t field more than a single frigate at the moment.
How would that change anything? What are they going to do that the Lincoln and Bush can't do already?
Show some solidarity with those trying to sort the problem.
That they caused, whilst insulting us every step of the way. They can fuck right off.
Remind me again who’s sending bombs into my city?
Really you should blame your man Trump for starting something he is unwilling to finish, but that’s something you refuse to do.
Iran wouldn’t be bombing your city if they hadn’t been attacked first. I make no comment on the rights or wrongs of that action but you can’t blame them for fighting back.
Why should country C be involved in a war between countries A and B?
Europe underestimates the willingness in the Middle East to finally deal once and for all with the Iran problem. Perhaps the US does too.
The forthcoming fuel shortage adds to this.
Think of US air strikes from country C as Hezbollah firing missiles from another country C, except your country C is getting off a lot more lightly than the poor fucking Lebanese.
It could well be at close of play in England that all parties are secretly disappointed to some extent.
And at the same time heartened. Reform established as the main party of the right. Greens as a serious player on the left. The Cons still very much in the game. Incremental progress for the LDs. Worst fears not transpiring for Labour.
Main takeout: It's 5 party politics now and that's official.
Reform are not established as you put it. Let's see what happens at the GE....
It gives me no pleasure to say it but this is a big positive step for them. No longer just a newbie Farage vehicle topping the polls, now the leading party of the right embedded via real votes in local government across large parts of the country. They have captured most of that voter coalition that delivered Brexit and Johnson's 2019 election win. It's a strong position.
Commendable honesty, unlike some of your lefty cousins on here. You get it precisely right. Farage will be chuffed with this result. Maybe very chuffed. Reform are now the main right wing party across most of the country. Not in polls, in actual votes in actual elections
A failure to grasp this would be suboptimal for their opponents
Tbf I'm not seeing anybody on 'my' side in denial that these results solidify Farage PM as a serious possibility. But don't go OTT the other way - a vain plea, I know - and interpret it as a sign that he's marching full bore and unstoppable towards Downing St. It remains more likely than not that he doesn't make it.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Cargo bikes for kids are generally a sign of well off, middle or upper class people. They tend to be expensive and work best when you live close to good schools.
Driving a "Chelsea Tractor" on the school run s seen as a bit chavy
Aren’t the cargo bikes like £5k? My car cost me less than that.
The absolute cheapest new Range Rover is about £42k.
My second hand Volkswagen Polo was £12k. £5k is nothing in the grand scheme of things.
My brand new Suzuki Swift set me back less than £13k just a couple of years ago. You can get second hand vehicles for considerably less than that.
£5k for most families is a hell of a lot of money.
Especially if you already have/need a vehicle then £5k for an additional form of transport is a luxury many can't afford.
A lot of families in London wont have a car in addition to a “cargo bike”. I don’t dispute that £5k is a hell of a lot of money but let’s not pretend it’s the height of luxury. Farage’s pals hand him £5m like it’s nothing.
By the way, the list price for a 2024 Suzuki Swift is over £19k.
PB is so out of touch
Only on PB could a 20 grand second car (plus insurance, tax, fuel, parking etc etc) be a cheaper option than getting a £5k cargo bike.
It’s certainly what we’ll do if we have children - the bigger challenge will be finding a family sized saloon/estate at a reasonable price.
Where has a "second car" been bought into the discussion ?
Big Ruth D on the beeb predicting the SCons will be back between 15 and 19 seats as they were 1999 t0 2016 #optimistic?
They'll be heavily reliant on constituencies, as Reform will poll very well on the list.
So far, Lib Dems very confident in Edinburgh NW (Cole Hamiltons seat) and optimistic about Edinburgh Northern. Less good news for them in Shetland, which the SNP have been working hard. Majority is 806 there so would only need a small shift in votes
Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt. But they shouldn't rush it.
IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him
Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.
I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer. Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.
Why is it, I wonder.
I think it’s because he is two faced, economical with the truth, and never takes responsibility. That is true of a lot of politicians, but Sir Keir is also pious, boring to listen to, and free of charisma, which makes him intensely dislikeable.
It could well be at close of play in England that all parties are secretly disappointed to some extent.
And at the same time heartened. Reform established as the main party of the right. Greens as a serious player on the left. The Cons still very much in the game. Incremental progress for the LDs. Worst fears not transpiring for Labour.
Main takeout: It's 5 party politics now and that's official.
Reform are not established as you put it. Let's see what happens at the GE....
It gives me no pleasure to say it but this is a big positive step for them. No longer just a newbie Farage vehicle topping the polls, now the leading party of the right embedded via real votes in local government across large parts of the country. They have captured most of that voter coalition that delivered Brexit and Johnson's 2019 election win. It's a strong position.
Commendable honesty, unlike some of your lefty cousins on here. You get it precisely right. Farage will be chuffed with this result. Maybe very chuffed. Reform are now the main right wing party across most of the country. Not in polls, in actual votes in actual elections
A failure to grasp this would be suboptimal for their opponents
Tbf I'm not seeing anybody on 'my' side in denial that these results solidify Farage PM as a serious possibility. But don't go OTT the other way - a vain plea, I know - and interpret it as a sign that he's marching full bore and unstoppable towards Downing St. It remains more likely than not that he doesn't make it.
lol stop patronising me, you gimp
I’m well aware that he faces many obstacles. He’s trying to do something never done before. Take a brand new party and bring it to power in a few short years. Under FPTP that is almost impossible. It took Labour decades to supplant the Libs
My prediction for the next GE - but I certainly wouldn’t bet on it, the times are too volatile - is that the next government will likely be a Tory-Reform coalition
It could well be at close of play in England that all parties are secretly disappointed to some extent.
And at the same time heartened. Reform established as the main party of the right. Greens as a serious player on the left. The Cons still very much in the game. Incremental progress for the LDs. Worst fears not transpiring for Labour.
Main takeout: It's 5 party politics now and that's official.
Reform are not established as you put it. Let's see what happens at the GE....
It gives me no pleasure to say it but this is a big positive step for them. No longer just a newbie Farage vehicle topping the polls, now the leading party of the right embedded via real votes in local government across large parts of the country. They have captured most of that voter coalition that delivered Brexit and Johnson's 2019 election win. It's a strong position.
Commendable honesty, unlike some of your lefty cousins on here. You get it precisely right. Farage will be chuffed with this result. Maybe very chuffed. Reform are now the main right wing party across most of the country. Not in polls, in actual votes in actual elections
A failure to grasp this would be suboptimal for their opponents
Tbf I'm not seeing anybody on 'my' side in denial that these results solidify Farage PM as a serious possibility. But don't go OTT the other way - a vain plea, I know - and interpret it as a sign that he's marching full bore and unstoppable towards Downing St. It remains more likely than not that he doesn't make it.
lol stop patronising me, you gimp
I’m well aware that he faces many obstacles. He’s trying to do something never done before. Take a brand new party and bring it to power in a few short years. Under FPTP that is almost impossible. It took Labour decades to supplant the Libs
My prediction for the next GE - but I certainly wouldn’t bet on it, the times are too volatile - is that the next government will likely be a Tory-Reform coalition
Politically awkward moment of the day on the BBC as Victoria Atkins says she hasn't spoken to Robert Jenrick since she supported his failed bid to lead the Conservative Party.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Cargo bikes for kids are generally a sign of well off, middle or upper class people. They tend to be expensive and work best when you live close to good schools.
Driving a "Chelsea Tractor" on the school run s seen as a bit chavy
Aren’t the cargo bikes like £5k? My car cost me less than that.
The absolute cheapest new Range Rover is about £42k.
My second hand Volkswagen Polo was £12k. £5k is nothing in the grand scheme of things.
My brand new Suzuki Swift set me back less than £13k just a couple of years ago. You can get second hand vehicles for considerably less than that.
£5k for most families is a hell of a lot of money.
Especially if you already have/need a vehicle then £5k for an additional form of transport is a luxury many can't afford.
A lot of families in London wont have a car in addition to a “cargo bike”. I don’t dispute that £5k is a hell of a lot of money but let’s not pretend it’s the height of luxury. Farage’s pals hand him £5m like it’s nothing.
By the way, the list price for a 2024 Suzuki Swift is over £19k.
PB is so out of touch
Only on PB could a 20 grand second car (plus insurance, tax, fuel, parking etc etc) be a cheaper option than getting a £5k cargo bike.
It’s certainly what we’ll do if we have children - the bigger challenge will be finding a family sized saloon/estate at a reasonable price.
Where has a "second car" been bought into the discussion ?
For some people, not having *third* car is a bit unthinkable.
I'll try the idea that a £5K cargo bike is a cheap choice at the local pub with a pool table, next time I'm there.
Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt. But they shouldn't rush it.
IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him
Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.
I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer. Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.
Why is it, I wonder.
I, too, would like an answer to this question. The level of dislike for Starmer seems entirely out of proportion with anything he or his party have actually done.
Maybe it’s because he’s so bland that people project things onto him? If you’re seen as standing for nothing in particular then you end up with what’s said about you by your political enemies being the things that come to mind when people think of you. As party leader you’re inevitably held responsible for all the bad stuff & if you have no presence to counter that you end up being the Christmas tree on which everyone gets to hang their personal hates.
Thoughts?
I don't dislike Starmer, but the Labour membership and to some extent the PLP is left of centre, and Starmer really isn't - he's nothing in particular, and switches policies on slight evidence of opposition. In particular, he lacks the sense of a clear project. I was a largely loyal Blair MP because although I disagreed with some of the policies, I could see they fitted the overall centre-left narrative. What is Starmer's narrative, except for muddling through?
Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt. But they shouldn't rush it.
IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him
Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.
I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer. Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.
Why is it, I wonder.
I think it’s because he is two faced, economical with the truth, and never takes responsibility. That is true of a lot of politicians, but Sir Keir is also pious, boring to listen to, and free of charisma, which makes him intensely dislikeable.
It’s three things.
Winter fuel - which was I maintain a good idea in principle but he could not explain it so he should not have done it.
U-turn on welfare made the PLP do whatever they want. His authority disappeared. He should have made it a confidence issue.
Mandelson. He stayed when it was obvious that was the end.
But luckily for Labour, all of these decisions are connected to him. So if anyone replaces him they can cast them aside.
Greens sounding upbeat of a constituency (or 2) in Glasgow, would be either Southside or Kelvin and Maryhill. If they took both, would beg the question why they only stood in 2 Glasgow seats.
Also Greens sound like they have a good chance at taking Edinbugh Central, Lorna Slater v Angus Robertson
Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt. But they shouldn't rush it.
IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him
Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.
I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer. Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.
Why is it, I wonder.
I think it’s because he is two faced, economical with the truth, and never takes responsibility. That is true of a lot of politicians, but Sir Keir is also pious, boring to listen to, and free of charisma, which makes him intensely dislikeable.
So last game of the season we might be in the bizarre situation of Brentford wanting to lose their match against Liverpool.
The bizarre reason Brentford could want to LOSE vs. Liverpool on final day
It could be in Brentford‘s best interests to lose to Liverpool on the final day of the season in a bizarre turn of events after Aston Villa qualified for the Europa League final.
The Premier League is guaranteed five Champions League spots next season, and currently five clubs are vying for the two remaining spots.
However, if Aston Villa finish fifth and win the Europa League, the European performance spot will be passed to the team in sixth, as Villa will qualify by lifting the trophy.
If Villa win the Europa League but finish inside the top four, there will be no extra place reallocated down the table.
It means those below Unai Emery’s side and still capable of finishing sixth, namely Bournemouth, Brentford and Brighton, will hope Villa do not move up the table.
In this bizarre turn of events, if Villa could still leapfrog Liverpool on the final day of the season, with Brentford already in sixth place, it would be in their best interest to lose at Anfield.
If a win for Liverpool ensured Villa remained fifth, then the Bees could benefit by losing, as an extra Champions League spot would be inherited by sixth place.
There will be no uncertainty regarding the confirmation of a sixth Champions League spot on the final day, however, as Villa will have already contested the final against Freiburg earlier in the week.
Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt. But they shouldn't rush it.
IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him
Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.
I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer. Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.
Why is it, I wonder.
I, too, would like an answer to this question. The level of dislike for Starmer seems entirely out of proportion with anything he or his party have actually done.
Maybe it’s because he’s so bland that people project things onto him? If you’re seen as standing for nothing in particular then you end up with what’s said about you by your political enemies being the things that come to mind when people think of you. As party leader you’re inevitably held responsible for all the bad stuff & if you have no presence to counter that you end up being the Christmas tree on which everyone gets to hang their personal hates.
Thoughts?
I don't dislike Starmer, but the Labour membership and to some extent the PLP is left of centre, and Starmer really isn't - he's nothing in particular, and switches policies on slight evidence of opposition. In particular, he lacks the sense of a clear project. I was a largely loyal Blair MP because although I disagreed with some of the policies, I could see they fitted the overall centre-left narrative. What is Starmer's narrative, except for muddling through?
I was done with him when it was clear after Mandelson he had no guiding policy to take him through. If he was doing something big he’d have got through it but he doesn’t.
With the majority they’ve got, anyone with any ideas could see them through.
It could well be at close of play in England that all parties are secretly disappointed to some extent.
And at the same time heartened. Reform established as the main party of the right. Greens as a serious player on the left. The Cons still very much in the game. Incremental progress for the LDs. Worst fears not transpiring for Labour.
Main takeout: It's 5 party politics now and that's official.
Reform are not established as you put it. Let's see what happens at the GE....
It gives me no pleasure to say it but this is a big positive step for them. No longer just a newbie Farage vehicle topping the polls, now the leading party of the right embedded via real votes in local government across large parts of the country. They have captured most of that voter coalition that delivered Brexit and Johnson's 2019 election win. It's a strong position.
Commendable honesty, unlike some of your lefty cousins on here. You get it precisely right. Farage will be chuffed with this result. Maybe very chuffed. Reform are now the main right wing party across most of the country. Not in polls, in actual votes in actual elections
A failure to grasp this would be suboptimal for their opponents
Tbf I'm not seeing anybody on 'my' side in denial that these results solidify Farage PM as a serious possibility. But don't go OTT the other way - a vain plea, I know - and interpret it as a sign that he's marching full bore and unstoppable towards Downing St. It remains more likely than not that he doesn't make it.
lol stop patronising me, you gimp
I’m well aware that he faces many obstacles. He’s trying to do something never done before. Take a brand new party and bring it to power in a few short years. Under FPTP that is almost impossible. It took Labour decades to supplant the Libs
My prediction for the next GE - but I certainly wouldn’t bet on it, the times are too volatile - is that the next government will likely be a Tory-Reform coalition
Ok, its a betting site, so that's a bit of a wimp-out. What theoretical odds might you consider?
Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt. But they shouldn't rush it.
IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him
Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.
I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer. Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.
Why is it, I wonder.
I think it’s because he is two faced, economical with the truth, and never takes responsibility. That is true of a lot of politicians, but Sir Keir is also pious, boring to listen to, and free of charisma, which makes him intensely dislikeable.
So last game of the season we might be in the bizarre situation of Brentford wanting to lose their match against Liverpool.
The bizarre reason Brentford could want to LOSE vs. Liverpool on final day
It could be in Brentford‘s best interests to lose to Liverpool on the final day of the season in a bizarre turn of events after Aston Villa qualified for the Europa League final.
The Premier League is guaranteed five Champions League spots next season, and currently five clubs are vying for the two remaining spots.
However, if Aston Villa finish fifth and win the Europa League, the European performance spot will be passed to the team in sixth, as Villa will qualify by lifting the trophy.
If Villa win the Europa League but finish inside the top four, there will be no extra place reallocated down the table.
It means those below Unai Emery’s side and still capable of finishing sixth, namely Bournemouth, Brentford and Brighton, will hope Villa do not move up the table.
In this bizarre turn of events, if Villa could still leapfrog Liverpool on the final day of the season, with Brentford already in sixth place, it would be in their best interest to lose at Anfield.
If a win for Liverpool ensured Villa remained fifth, then the Bees could benefit by losing, as an extra Champions League spot would be inherited by sixth place.
There will be no uncertainty regarding the confirmation of a sixth Champions League spot on the final day, however, as Villa will have already contested the final against Freiburg earlier in the week.
You're going to hear a lot about how Reform is now a national party.
It's not true, as John Curtice sets out here. They're doing very well in areas that voted strongly for Brexit and not very well at all in areas that voted strongly Remain
Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt. But they shouldn't rush it.
Who would you go for as a (I think?) Labour person?
I've voted Labour a few times. I actually had a lot of time for Miliband, while accepting that he was too odd to win, but/so don't think it should be his time again. Burnham has underwhelmed in past leadership elections. Streeting is a good media performer, but I'm not convined the party would back him. Rayner I just don't see it somehow, bit too much baggage. Cooper - see Burnham but more so. Mahmood - see Streeting and she'd do more for Polanski and maybe the LDs than anyone.
So, I've basically ruled out all the obvious contenders, haven't I? What am I missing. I probably would vote Labour under Miliband, Burnham, Streeting or Cooper, if other parties' leaderships stayed the same. Possibly Rayner depending on the wider team and policies. But I'd probably vote Labour under Starmer too, if other party leaders stayed the same, so that's not really an endorsement. Changes in LD or possibly Tory leadership could tempt me away (for Tories it would have to be a One Nation type of platform and take the party with them).
Yes, I'm a Labour person, and pretty much agree with your analysis of the contenders, which is why I think Starmer will be around for a while yet. The question for me is whether Burnham has matured and improved enough to be a viable PM - I'm just not sure. But all the other current contenders lack either a) the ability, and/or b) the support in the party to inherit the crown.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Or a trailer.
Or (my photo of the day) something like this, a tandem tricycle. I have a friend in Derby who takes her kids everywhere within a few miles on one of these - previously using various things like a child seat then a tagalong, but more recently one on the tandem, and another on their own cycle.
This is from the Wheels for Wellbeing pre-cleared free photo library.
Off on a tangent, but is that helmet on the front guy serving any purpose at all, other than decoration. I guess if something fell directly from above it might help, but it's not going to do anything useful in a crash.
Good question ! I don't know - protocol is to wear helmets "on top and horizontal". My surmise would perhaps be that it is an integrated unit with the sun visor. I'm not sure how it works out if you have a helmet over say a cloth baseball cap; that's one I have never tried, though I occasionally use a hat-like cover over a small carbon fibre helmet.
Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt. But they shouldn't rush it.
IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him
Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.
I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer. Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.
Why is it, I wonder.
I, too, would like an answer to this question. The level of dislike for Starmer seems entirely out of proportion with anything he or his party have actually done.
Maybe it’s because he’s so bland that people project things onto him? If you’re seen as standing for nothing in particular then you end up with what’s said about you by your political enemies being the things that come to mind when people think of you. As party leader you’re inevitably held responsible for all the bad stuff & if you have no presence to counter that you end up being the Christmas tree on which everyone gets to hang their personal hates.
Thoughts?
The left blame him because he was in the room when Corbyn shot himself in the foot.
The right blame him because he was in the room when Boris shot himself in the groin.
Everyone hates him because, like the rest of them, he doesn't have a working solution to our problems. And he's crap at politics, and has an annoying voice.
Worst of all, he's the least bad option right now.
The Centrists hate him because they thought all was needed was that a sensible Labour person took over as PM, and it turned out that wasn't the case.
My perception is that the hate is mostly coming from the left / right - current Green & Reform voters? Centrists just find him uninspiring.
The focus groups and polling consistently report he really does have a unique positiion that he is disliked through to hated across the board not just far left or right. Unlike even Boris post partygate, he has no fan club. He appears to have magic ability to make people really hate him other things most other politicians would be fine. The polling companies have reported even when they have asked what about.decision on Iran, the public at best react with yeap he got that right before then ranting about his other things.
I detect an 'unpopular boy at school' thing in the mix. There's a bandwagon. Throwing around insults about him, repeating what they've heard, competing to do better ones, has become a kind of national hobby. They think it's grounded in reality but it largely isn't. A lot of it is herd behaviour.
Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt. But they shouldn't rush it.
IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him
Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.
I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer. Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.
Why is it, I wonder.
I think it’s because he is two faced, economical with the truth, and never takes responsibility. That is true of a lot of politicians, but Sir Keir is also pious, boring to listen to, and free of charisma, which makes him intensely dislikeable.
Also, people sense a wrong ‘un. It’s instinctive
Could be wrong, but my impression is he's very good at office/court politics and throwing underlings under the bus. Honorius was a dreadful emperor and backstabbed Stilicho, almost the last hope in the West, but clung onto power for decades. Being bad at governing doesn't necessarily mean being bad at keeping grip of the party.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Cargo bikes for kids are generally a sign of well off, middle or upper class people. They tend to be expensive and work best when you live close to good schools.
Driving a "Chelsea Tractor" on the school run s seen as a bit chavy
Aren’t the cargo bikes like £5k? My car cost me less than that.
The absolute cheapest new Range Rover is about £42k.
My second hand Volkswagen Polo was £12k. £5k is nothing in the grand scheme of things.
My brand new Suzuki Swift set me back less than £13k just a couple of years ago. You can get second hand vehicles for considerably less than that.
£5k for most families is a hell of a lot of money.
Especially if you already have/need a vehicle then £5k for an additional form of transport is a luxury many can't afford.
A lot of families in London wont have a car in addition to a “cargo bike”. I don’t dispute that £5k is a hell of a lot of money but let’s not pretend it’s the height of luxury. Farage’s pals hand him £5m like it’s nothing.
By the way, the list price for a 2024 Suzuki Swift is over £19k.
PB is so out of touch
Only on PB could a 20 grand second car (plus insurance, tax, fuel, parking etc etc) be a cheaper option than getting a £5k cargo bike.
It’s certainly what we’ll do if we have children - the bigger challenge will be finding a family sized saloon/estate at a reasonable price.
Where has a "second car" been bought into the discussion ?
9.27am.
This kind of discussion always descends into strawman arguments - no one has suggested that all cars get replaced by cargo
bikes. For some people in urban areas with good public services, it might be all you need. In others, a cheap complement to the family car. In others, you might need two cars.
Anecdote alert - irrelevant to the local elections.
A friend is (improbably) a prince in the UAE (they have hundreds of princes in their seven royal families so it's less of a big deal than it would be here).
He has just decided to move with his numerous children in their "PJ" [private jet] to London to avoid the war and concentrate on managing their wealth in Europe and the States.
So it's not just expats and tourists who are affected by Trump's terrible decisions ...
Interesting anecdote.
Dare I say that for everyone moving from UAE to UK to ‘manage’ their wealth, there’s a few more moving in the opposite direction with the intention of creating wealth.
London is a pretty good place to be if you have a lot of international wealth and little income, to be fair.
London is a pretty good place to be, full stop. The sun is shining, there is an abundance of trees and greenery all around, everyone is busy about their business, from the white van man up early to the woke dad with his two little uns on the back of his bike on the way to the excellent local primary school.
That's poor weight distribution, smallest on the front, larger one on the back. Once the smaller one is >15kgs you're looking at a tandem or cargo bike.
Cargo bikes for kids are generally a sign of well off, middle or upper class people. They tend to be expensive and work best when you live close to good schools.
Driving a "Chelsea Tractor" on the school run s seen as a bit chavy
Aren’t the cargo bikes like £5k? My car cost me less than that.
The absolute cheapest new Range Rover is about £42k.
My second hand Volkswagen Polo was £12k. £5k is nothing in the grand scheme of things.
My brand new Suzuki Swift set me back less than £13k just a couple of years ago. You can get second hand vehicles for considerably less than that.
£5k for most families is a hell of a lot of money.
Especially if you already have/need a vehicle then £5k for an additional form of transport is a luxury many can't afford.
A lot of families in London wont have a car in addition to a “cargo bike”. I don’t dispute that £5k is a hell of a lot of money but let’s not pretend it’s the height of luxury. Farage’s pals hand him £5m like it’s nothing.
By the way, the list price for a 2024 Suzuki Swift is over £19k.
PB is so out of touch
Only on PB could a 20 grand second car (plus insurance, tax, fuel, parking etc etc) be a cheaper option than getting a £5k cargo bike.
It’s certainly what we’ll do if we have children - the bigger challenge will be finding a family sized saloon/estate at a reasonable price.
Where has a "second car" been bought into the discussion ?
9.27am.
This kind of discussion always descends into strawman arguments - no one has suggested that all cars get replaced by cargo bikes.
For some people in urban areas with good public services, it might be all you need. In others, a cheap complement to the family car. In others, you might need two cars.
So last game of the season we might be in the bizarre situation of Brentford wanting to lose their match against Liverpool.
The bizarre reason Brentford could want to LOSE vs. Liverpool on final day
It could be in Brentford‘s best interests to lose to Liverpool on the final day of the season in a bizarre turn of events after Aston Villa qualified for the Europa League final.
The Premier League is guaranteed five Champions League spots next season, and currently five clubs are vying for the two remaining spots.
However, if Aston Villa finish fifth and win the Europa League, the European performance spot will be passed to the team in sixth, as Villa will qualify by lifting the trophy.
If Villa win the Europa League but finish inside the top four, there will be no extra place reallocated down the table.
It means those below Unai Emery’s side and still capable of finishing sixth, namely Bournemouth, Brentford and Brighton, will hope Villa do not move up the table.
In this bizarre turn of events, if Villa could still leapfrog Liverpool on the final day of the season, with Brentford already in sixth place, it would be in their best interest to lose at Anfield.
If a win for Liverpool ensured Villa remained fifth, then the Bees could benefit by losing, as an extra Champions League spot would be inherited by sixth place.
There will be no uncertainty regarding the confirmation of a sixth Champions League spot on the final day, however, as Villa will have already contested the final against Freiburg earlier in the week.
"I wonder if you can help me," asks Aladair Maughan. "I remember reading about a match being played in an African cup competition (I think) where both teams were trying to score own goals in order to try to make/try to prevent the game from going into extra time and being won on a golden goal. Does anyone know the exact details of this, or if it's just an urban myth?
It might sound like an urban myth, Alasdair, but it's (almost) 100% true. The crazy events you describe took place in a Shell Caribbean Cup match between Barbados and Grenada in 1994.
Going into the last group game Barbados needed to beat Grenada by two goals to qualify for the final stages. Anything less and Grenada went through.
So far, so simple. Except that the organisers had decided that, in the case of extra time, a golden goal would count as two goals.
You don't have to be Einstein to work out what happened next. Barbados raced to a 2-0 lead before Grenada made it 2-1 with seven minutes remaining. The Barjans were heading out unless they scored a goal; any goal.
Fortunately for them, with three minutes left, they did just that - only not in the right net. Their deliberate own goal made it 2-2 and propelled the game towards extra time.
Now, farcically, Grenada needed to score a goal (at either end) to go through. Cue frantic defending of both penalty areas by Barbados until the final whistle.
Such dubious shenanigans were rewarded, however, when Barbados scored the golden goal - this time in Grenada's net - four minutes into extra time to win the match 3-2 (or 4-2 according to the rules of the tournament) and qualify for the finals.
I just do not understand what Starmer is still doing standing there.
I guess I’ll have to dump my source, I sincerely thought he’d quit.
He was never going to quit. He will either be dragged out kicking and screaming or he'll lead into the 2029 GE and Labour will face wipeout. People really, really hate him.
Based on results thus far, it seems fairly simple to me. The white working class really, really dislike Starmer - much more than they dislike Labour as a brand - and won't vote Labour while he is leader. So, a new leader it has to be, unless Starmer can reinvent himself, which I seriously doubt. But they shouldn't rush it.
IPSOS Personality Ratings told us all this, although it didn’t stop him becoming PM as everyone was too angry with the Tories to notice him
Going to say it again. It's impossible to accurately assess the state of British politics until Starmer goes. He is not simply unpopular. He is despised to an extent I have never seen before, and can't personally rationalise. But he represents a uniquely distorting prism.
I wouldn't describe myself as a Starmer 'fan', nor in fact have I ever been, but I really don't understand the 'despising', and, often it seems, hatred, that many people seem to have for Starmer. Thatcher was disliked by many on the Left but I don't recall any of the antagonism that many people seem to have towards Starmer.
Why is it, I wonder.
I think it’s because he is two faced, economical with the truth, and never takes responsibility. That is true of a lot of politicians, but Sir Keir is also pious, boring to listen to, and free of charisma, which makes him intensely dislikeable.
Also, people sense a wrong ‘un. It’s instinctive
Why was your wrong ‘un radar so off?
Dunno. In retrospect that deliciously accurate pre-election. Guardian profile - which identified him as a narcissistic, prickly, defensive and humourless weirdo that doesn’t dream - should have been a warning. Like many, I didn’t heed it
I think Reform will be relieved more than anything. The campaign saw the reveal that Farage really took a massive bung. I don't rubbish him entirely for that - I am sure he had longstanding views about the freedom of bitcoin that aligned with the bung, but that is still what it is and it could have been disastrous.
They got past it partly due to a clever shitpost (migrant detention centres for Green areas), and because people wanted to kick Labour. They are lucky lucky lucky.
Comments
LDs were favourites last night.
New to this release
Within this publication we have:
Included tidy data tables as part of the release, to allow users to easily analyse, reshape and combine the data
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-payrolled-employments-by-nationality-region-industry-age-and-sex-from-july-2014-to-december-2025/uk-payrolled-employments-by-nationality-region-industry-age-and-sex-from-july-2014-to-december-2025
Some pretty graphs to admire as there is nothing much happening over the next couple of days. One imagines the Boriswave (won by India and Nigeria) charts will be carefully studied by Big Nige (or tweeted by his minions while the main man relaxes with a pint and a bank statement).
The decline in UK nationals' employment from 2022 onwards might explain the rise of the NOTA parties, decline of the Tories and disillusionment with Labour (and Starmer in particular).
For a General Election I reckon that's great news for the LibDems, who are in position and have the campaigning capacity to pull over a good chunk of those Green and Labour voters
Iran wouldn’t be bombing your city if they hadn’t been attacked first. I make no comment on the rights or wrongs of that action but you can’t blame them for fighting back.
“Verdict from one former councillor on the state of play in Newcastle: 'Reform will be the biggest party but not gain a majority, Labour will be reduced to single figures, and a LD-Green coalition won’t quite reach a majority.‘“
Anyway, they have a mandate, but for what? Hexit ain't gonna happen, so they now have another council that is both frugal and bust.
Good luck, chaps.
Europe underestimates the willingness in the Middle East to finally deal once and for all with the Iran problem. Perhaps the US does too.
The forthcoming fuel shortage adds to this.
Quite rightly the UK has a long tradition of not supporting other countries in their overseas advantures (with some sadly notable exceptions). Churchill refused US demands to help the French at Dien Bien Phu, Wilson refused to get involved in Vietnam and now Starmer has (mostly) refused to get involved in Iran - although he has sadly backtracked a bit on this. This is probably the most statesman like and sensible decision Starmer has taken in his whole tenure.
(ducks)
They’re not going away anytime soon.
Perhaps war should actually be a last resort after all. Just a thought.
"So far 189 of Labour's holds, out of 253 overall, were in London. That's actually 75%"
I can’t believe I’ve become such a politics nerd I’m seriously absorbed in the possible local election results in the Isle of Wight, but so it is
To be fair to all of us nerds on here, this is a genuinely unprecedented and epochal local UK election (with the added drama of Wales and Scotland). We are seeing the definite breakthrough of a brand new party - Reform, and the potential breakthrough of a sort-of new party - the Greens. And the arrival of five, six, seven party politics across the country
This is something truly new, in a very old country. It heralds the end of FPTP as we’ve known it
Just reward for their competence
Started off quite supportive of Skyr, is now brutally contemptuous
His view is that Starmer panders to the right but doesn’t even do it very well, and is utterly lacking in vision, insight, charisma. And is petty and greedy
I found it hard to argue
Reform 30%
Lab 20%
LD 17%
Con 15%
Green 11%
Meanwhile R&T NEV was:
Reform 32%
Lab 19%
LD 16%
Con 18%
Green 7%
Let's see who is up and down since then.
#optimistic?
It’s certainly what we’ll do if we have children - the bigger challenge will be finding a family sized saloon/estate at a reasonable price.
ETA: I don't feel all that strongly on Starmer though. He's clearly not up to it, but I'm not sure who is!
E2TA: And frustrated as he's sinking centrist politics by being useless and being tagged as such. We're likely to see a move to more ideological, I suspect
So far, Lib Dems very confident in Edinburgh NW (Cole Hamiltons seat) and optimistic about Edinburgh Northern. Less good news for them in Shetland, which the SNP have been working hard. Majority is 806 there so would only need a small shift in votes
Indeed, Reform made it their campaign slogan.
I’m well aware that he faces many obstacles. He’s trying to do something never done before. Take a brand new party and bring it to power in a few short years. Under FPTP that is almost impossible. It took Labour decades to supplant the Libs
My prediction for the next GE - but I certainly wouldn’t bet on it, the times are too volatile - is that the next government will likely be a Tory-Reform coalition
I’m well aware that he faces many obstacles. He’s trying to do something never done before. Take a brand new party and bring it to power in a few short years. Under FPTP that is almost impossible. It took Labour decades to supplant the Libs
My prediction for the next GE - but I certainly wouldn’t bet on it, the times are too volatile - is that the next government will likely be a Tory-Reform coalition
Politically awkward moment of the day on the BBC as Victoria Atkins says she hasn't spoken to Robert Jenrick since she supported his failed bid to lead the Conservative Party.
https://bsky.app/profile/paulbrand.bsky.social/post/3mldhvmeaec2h
I'll try the idea that a £5K cargo bike is a cheap choice at the local pub with a pool table, next time I'm there.
Winter fuel - which was I maintain a good idea in principle but he could not explain it so he should not have done it.
U-turn on welfare made the PLP do whatever they want. His authority disappeared. He should have made it a confidence issue.
Mandelson. He stayed when it was obvious that was the end.
But luckily for Labour, all of these decisions are connected to him. So if anyone replaces him they can cast them aside.
Labour is underrated currently in my view.
https://rmoff.net/2026/05/06/ai-slop-is-killing-online-communities/
"AI Slop is Killing Online Communities"
Also Greens sound like they have a good chance at taking Edinbugh Central, Lorna Slater v Angus Robertson
The bizarre reason Brentford could want to LOSE vs. Liverpool on final day
It could be in Brentford‘s best interests to lose to Liverpool on the final day of the season in a bizarre turn of events after Aston Villa qualified for the Europa League final.
The Premier League is guaranteed five Champions League spots next season, and currently five clubs are vying for the two remaining spots.
However, if Aston Villa finish fifth and win the Europa League, the European performance spot will be passed to the team in sixth, as Villa will qualify by lifting the trophy.
If Villa win the Europa League but finish inside the top four, there will be no extra place reallocated down the table.
It means those below Unai Emery’s side and still capable of finishing sixth, namely Bournemouth, Brentford and Brighton, will hope Villa do not move up the table.
In this bizarre turn of events, if Villa could still leapfrog Liverpool on the final day of the season, with Brentford already in sixth place, it would be in their best interest to lose at Anfield.
If a win for Liverpool ensured Villa remained fifth, then the Bees could benefit by losing, as an extra Champions League spot would be inherited by sixth place.
There will be no uncertainty regarding the confirmation of a sixth Champions League spot on the final day, however, as Villa will have already contested the final against Freiburg earlier in the week.
https://www.thisisanfield.com/2026/05/liverpool-brentford-final-day-sixth-place-champions-league/
With the majority they’ve got, anyone with any ideas could see them through.
https://x.com/GavinBarwell/status/2052610092931916065
You're going to hear a lot about how Reform is now a national party.
It's not true, as John Curtice sets out here. They're doing very well in areas that voted strongly for Brexit and not very well at all in areas that voted strongly Remain
I'll see if I can find out.
For London that 189 comes from approx 543 declared
For rest of England those 64 come from approx 716 declared
(we should also note the London declarations so far lean quite a bit towards inner London)
This kind of discussion always descends into strawman arguments - no one has suggested that all cars get replaced by cargo
bikes. For some people in urban areas with good public services, it might be all you need. In others, a cheap complement to the family car. In others, you might need two cars.
I guess I’ll have to dump my source, I sincerely thought he’d quit.
This kind of discussion always descends into strawman arguments - no one has suggested that all cars get replaced by cargo bikes.
For some people in urban areas with good public services, it might be all you need. In others, a cheap complement to the family car. In others, you might need two cars.
I wanted to see something like this.
"I wonder if you can help me," asks Aladair Maughan. "I remember reading about a match being played in an African cup competition (I think) where both teams were trying to score own goals in order to try to make/try to prevent the game from going into extra time and being won on a golden goal. Does anyone know the exact details of this, or if it's just an urban myth?
It might sound like an urban myth, Alasdair, but it's (almost) 100% true. The crazy events you describe took place in a Shell Caribbean Cup match between Barbados and Grenada in 1994.
Going into the last group game Barbados needed to beat Grenada by two goals to qualify for the final stages. Anything less and Grenada went through.
So far, so simple. Except that the organisers had decided that, in the case of extra time, a golden goal would count as two goals.
You don't have to be Einstein to work out what happened next. Barbados raced to a 2-0 lead before Grenada made it 2-1 with seven minutes remaining. The Barjans were heading out unless they scored a goal; any goal.
Fortunately for them, with three minutes left, they did just that - only not in the right net. Their deliberate own goal made it 2-2 and propelled the game towards extra time.
Now, farcically, Grenada needed to score a goal (at either end) to go through. Cue frantic defending of both penalty areas by Barbados until the final whistle.
Such dubious shenanigans were rewarded, however, when Barbados scored the golden goal - this time in Grenada's net - four minutes into extra time to win the match 3-2 (or 4-2 according to the rules of the tournament) and qualify for the finals.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2002/mar/28/theknowledge.sport
They got past it partly due to a clever shitpost (migrant detention centres for Green areas), and because people wanted to kick Labour. They are lucky lucky lucky.