politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After six weeks of CON leads or them level-pegging today Lo

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Give incentives to businesses to take on apprentices by all means, but force them to and you just wind them up, discrediting the idea and meaning many of the resulting apprenticeship schemes will just be low quality mechanisms to look like they are compliant.

So Ed has managed at a stroke to turn a fantastic idea, enouraging more apprentices into something negative, authoritarian and interfering. EIC

And people accuse UKIP of coming out with ill thought out, populist crap......

It is typical of Ed though, wave a magic wand and every school leaver can have an apprenticeship, wave the wand again and you guarantee a job for the long-term unemployed.

Half-baked ideas that sound good on paper — energy price freeze — are an Ed speciality. Just think in only 3 months time Ed will have to deal with issues like combating ISIS at home and abroad.

Yikes!

glw said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Give incentives to businesses to take on apprentices by all means, but force them to and you just wind them up, discrediting the idea and meaning many of the resulting apprenticeship schemes will just be low quality mechanisms to look like they are compliant.

So Ed has managed at a stroke to turn a fantastic idea, enouraging more apprentices into something negative, authoritarian and interfering. EIC

And people accuse UKIP of coming out with ill thought out, populist crap......

It is typical of Ed though, wave a magic wand and every school leaver can have an apprenticeship, wave the wand again and you guarantee a job for the long-term unemployed.

Half-baked ideas that sound good on paper — energy price freeze — are an Ed speciality. Just think in only 3 months time Ed will have to deal with issues like combating ISIS at home and abroad.

Yikes!

I am waiting for some journalist to actually ask these probing questions. Like he just trotted out the line of x thousand new front line home care workers that he will hire...except he has no direct control over that. Not only is it not NHS, nor it is in 90% of the time local council these days, all the contracts have been outsourced. So it is up to private providers under their current contracts to provide the support they are being paid for.

Now either Ed is going to change the law radically to make minimum visit times longer / more frequent or he is talking horses##t...and if he is talking about radically altering the law, not only can I see lots of these private providers say hey a deal is a deal, but also old people who pay for their own care will end up paying more.

I am not saying there isn't a problem with home care for the elderly, but he can't just hire 5000 extra workers, he doesn't have the power to do so without major change across the whole system...and that can't be overnight and will cost a lot of money.

MikeK said:

State Control ‏@State_Control 32m32 minutes ago
Director of EU-funded #UKIP Smear 'Mockumentary' In Court For Tax Fraud:
http://bit.ly/1DhSdmL

DIRECTOR OF UKIP SMEAR ‘MOCKUMENTARY’ IN COURT FOR TAX FRAUD

From what I've read Channel 4 appear to have gone for a "Threads" style in portraying the devastation that would occur following a UKIP.

Perhaps we even might get to see a nuclear warhead detonating just outside Sheffield.

Just your average scouser charged with trying to make a chemical weapon #nickpalmernews

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31495081

Casino_Royale said:

Exactly my criticism of Cameron. He's totally failed to lead the Conservative movement in this country. In no sense do I detect he's led national debate or moved the centre of public opinion over to the Conservative cause over the last 5 years.

In fact, whenever he does something vaguely Conservative he seems to be very apologetic about it. I think the centre of gravity of UK political discourse is exactly where it was in 2010.

Casino Royale, I take your point and agree with it to an extent, but I don't think you're giving sufficient credit for his achievements in the modern political context.

Certainly I would struggle to define "Cameronism" and I think if he loses in May he will be judged unfavourably against Thatcher and Blair for his failure to leave a defining popular legacy. But we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that after thirteen years of Labour government in which public expenditure only went in one direction he has led a government that has consistently challenged the political consensus and begun to establish a "value" culture in the public sector that was hitherto missing. We now hear leaders of major public services like the NHS actively embracing the need for efficiency, in a way that was inconceivable five years ago. And we have seen the beginnings of a revolution in the relationship between welfare, work and the low paid. He has also restored power to parliament and to the people, with referenda on the voting system and Scottish independence, and an EU referendum to follow. On matters of war and peace he has been consultative rather than directional. Finally, he has allowed cabinet ministers (largely) to get on with running their departments, reversing a paralysing centralisation that characterised much of the last 20 years.

You could of course dispute some of the above, or say the credit lies elsewhere. Certainly not all of the above has applied uniformly, or uniformly happily. Some ministers needed more controlling, for example. And perhaps it doesn't make up for his lack of an overwhelming vision. But Cameron has been a pragmatic and flexible leader during a time of great political change, in an era in which people are suspicious of idealists.

I would have liked him to be truer to his instincts and a more visionary leader, but I don't think he has done badly by any stretch, and would say that Britain is better for his premiership.

glw said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I am not saying there isn't a problem with home care for the elderly, but he can't just hire 5000 extra workers, he doesn't have the power to do so without major change across the whole system...and that can't be overnight and will cost a lot of money.

Don't worry the bankers' bonus tax will probably pay for it, as it will pay for, and I'm not joking, the apprenticeships for all that he announced this morning.

How many times has it been allocated for things now? 20 different things?

FrancisUrquhart said:

glw said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I am not saying there isn't a problem with home care for the elderly, but he can't just hire 5000 extra workers, he doesn't have the power to do so without major change across the whole system...and that can't be overnight and will cost a lot of money.

Don't worry the bankers' bonus tax will probably pay for it, as it will pay for, and I'm not joking, the apprenticeships for all that he announced this morning.

How many times has it been allocated for things now? 20 different things?

The Magic Money Tree has now been discredited, so they now have to use Bankers Bonus Bush instead.

JonnyJimmy said:

Have Lab ever announced the level of the bankers' bonus tax?

On top of the 50% rate they'd be paying anyway under Labour, plus NI, plus their pay-for-everything bonus tax, we've got to be looking at a top rate of at least 70% for bankers?

I'm sure the city firms will be delighted to stay..

Given the amount of things Labour seems to think the bonus tax will pay for I can only assume that they intend it to be extraordinarily punitive. How that will work in practice, or more likely why it won't work, is another matter.

MarkHopkins said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

glw said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I am not saying there isn't a problem with home care for the elderly, but he can't just hire 5000 extra workers, he doesn't have the power to do so without major change across the whole system...and that can't be overnight and will cost a lot of money.

Don't worry the bankers' bonus tax will probably pay for it, as it will pay for, and I'm not joking, the apprenticeships for all that he announced this morning.

How many times has it been allocated for things now? 20 different things?

The Magic Money Tree has now been discredited, so they now have to use Bankers Bonus Bush instead.

The Magic Money Tree exists.
It's called the Bank of England.

Luckyguy1983 said:

ab195 said:

I usually only lurk here but this sort of oft repeated nonsense should be challenged.

1) Incorrect. The US does not manufacture the warheads and to do so would be a breach of the Nonproliferation Treaty.

2) Elements are vaguely true but only relevant over a period of many years, during which would could replace their input.

3) Won't address this in detail but it's nonsense. Often repeated nonsense, so I don't blame you for believing it, but it's nonsense. Think about the circumstances in which Trident might be fired (the West has gone and so have the toys overhead) and consider two things: a) we already know where e.g. Moscow is, and b) you don't need to be that accurate with a nuclear device.

Hello, thanks for coming to say hi.

1. Yes, -mea culpa. We manufacture the warheads in close cooperation with them. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/12/uk-us-mutual-defence-agreement-exclusive It doesn't advance your argument any though; they create the missiles.

2. You say over a period of years, the Trident Commission says months: http://www.basicint.org/publications/trident-commission/2014/trident-commission-concluding-report I choose to believe them.

3. An interesting angle -one of the key reasons given in the Commission report for maintaining Ballistic missiles over simply using an aircraft is its capability of accuracy within 10s of metres. Perhaps you could outline to them your theory of just lobbing one in the general direction of the Russians -you might save us a lot of money.

Months? Crickey, we'd better tell the V Boat captain on patrol.

On number three, I refer you to other previous comments. My point was that inertial and star mapping navigation are less accurate that some other means we might use for non-nuclear weapons but that's ok, given the reasons for using Trident and its yield.

The real argument for a submarine based ballistic missile is that it's invulnerable until used.

@jungleland

Still in the game, yes

Ali and Jacob work at spin don't they?

You make good points Flockers. I am not sure we need any more '...isms'. These are things the press have to invent to tag people with.
What upsets some people is that Cameron has not played the race card.
What Cameron and the tories have done is cut back on expenditure and the public payroll so much so that opponents try to compare it to 1936. But this is still not good enough for some!

saddo said:

glw said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Have Lab ever announced the level of the bankers' bonus tax?

On top of the 50% rate they'd be paying anyway under Labour, plus NI, plus their pay-for-everything bonus tax, we've got to be looking at a top rate of at least 70% for bankers?

I'm sure the city firms will be delighted to stay..

Given the amount of things Labour seems to think the bonus tax will pay for I can only assume that they intend it to be extraordinarily punitive. How that will work in practice, or more likely why it won't work, is another matter.

Given there's the crazy EU 2x salary multiple cap in place now aren't "bankers bonuses" going to be much smaller anyway.

Yes, in theory bonuses in future will be smaller, but still Labour keep adding to the the list of things the tax will pay for.

Casino_Royale said:

They're already on Airbus pulling out of the UK within seconds of 'PM Farage' announcing the UK withdrawing from the EU.

Yes, it's pretty chilling. Put me right off voting for UKIP.

Tykejohnno said:

On FA cup draw -

Bradford city v reading ,any thoughts ;-)

Another semi-final against Villa beckons?

Tissue_Price said:

Casino_Royale said:

They're already on Airbus pulling out of the UK within seconds of 'PM Farage' announcing the UK withdrawing from the EU.

Yes, it's pretty chilling. Put me right off voting for UKIP.

Best tweet I saw from a kipper about this said if ukip were in charge they'd have closed channel 4 down within 100 days so this shit wouldn't be on!

Speedy said:

MTimT said:

@viewcode. From the outset of these 'negotiations', it struck me that the Greeks were following a playbook created by someone who had book knowledge but no practical experience. Part of the analysis of any negotiation of this type is not just the substance of the negotiations (the hard numbers) but also the process of the negotiation, because it is not a one off and so maintaining a working relationship with all involved is essential. So what did the Greeks do from day one? Everything they could to piss off everyone, and in particular to piss of the most important player of all, Germany. Anyone who has played a true Prisoner's Dilemma knows that, in order to get to the optimal outcome rather than the suboptimal one, the players have to trust each other. Varoufakis seems to have ignored that simple fact in trying to play a very weak hand too cleverly by half.

That works if the 2 sides don't really hate each other and even then if the disaster of no agreement is not total (Cold War vs Nuclear Holocaust)
The end of the eurozone will not be the end of mankind, so both sides have no problem of pressing the red button if they really hate each other.

The eurozone is an emotional and political thing (the EU too), it is disastrous economically, however it manages to go on because of the emotion of the "european ideal", if you take that emotion away and replace it by hate towards "european oppressors" then it's game over for the euro (and for the EU) as inevitably you get a populace that votes a government that wants to get out.

MTimM, that might be right. But the Greek government is pouring out so much fire, backing themselves at home, that it is starting to look like cover for something else. I big climbdown, perhaps, or unilateral withdrawal perhaps.

OldKingCole said:

MarkHopkins said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

glw said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I am not saying there isn't a problem with home care for the elderly, but he can't just hire 5000 extra workers, he doesn't have the power to do so without major change across the whole system...and that can't be overnight and will cost a lot of money.

Don't worry the bankers' bonus tax will probably pay for it, as it will pay for, and I'm not joking, the apprenticeships for all that he announced this morning.

How many times has it been allocated for things now? 20 different things?

The Magic Money Tree has now been discredited, so they now have to use Bankers Bonus Bush instead.

The realisation of this sort of thing will drive the Red Liberals back to Clegg.

That's an interesting thought... Maybe the prospect of the SNP will encourage a Lab to LD swing.??

isam said:

Tissue_Price said:

Casino_Royale said:

They're already on Airbus pulling out of the UK within seconds of 'PM Farage' announcing the UK withdrawing from the EU.

Yes, it's pretty chilling. Put me right off voting for UKIP.

Best tweet I saw from a kipper about this said if ukip were in charge they'd have closed channel 4 down within 100 days so this shit wouldn't be on!

Ha. To be fair, Channel 4 did do a fairly pro-Farage documentary on the real Nigel Farage a few months ago, so it's not all bad. Although this particular documentary is silly propaganda.

ThomasNashe said:

Tykejohnno said:

On FA cup draw -

Bradford city v reading ,any thoughts ;-)

Another semi-final against Villa beckons?

Wash your mouth out, Villa will lose to the mighty Baggies.

Casino_Royale said:

isam said:

Tissue_Price said:

Casino_Royale said:

They're already on Airbus pulling out of the UK within seconds of 'PM Farage' announcing the UK withdrawing from the EU.

Yes, it's pretty chilling. Put me right off voting for UKIP.

Best tweet I saw from a kipper about this said if ukip were in charge they'd have closed channel 4 down within 100 days so this shit wouldn't be on!

Ha. To be fair, Channel 4 did do a fairly pro-Farage documentary on the real Nigel Farage a few months ago, so it's not all bad. Although this particular documentary is silly propaganda.

Just switched it on... Unreal really, but I guess they gave Farage an hour with the goggle box crew so yeah fair enough

Hopefully there will be a bit of outrage, bit of publicity and we will go back up in the polls

Flightpath said:

glw said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Give incentives to businesses to take on apprentices by all means, but force them to and you just wind them up, discrediting the idea and meaning many of the resulting apprenticeship schemes will just be low quality mechanisms to look like they are compliant.

So Ed has managed at a stroke to turn a fantastic idea, enouraging more apprentices into something negative, authoritarian and interfering. EIC

And people accuse UKIP of coming out with ill thought out, populist crap......

It is typical of Ed though, wave a magic wand and every school leaver can have an apprenticeship, wave the wand again and you guarantee a job for the long-term unemployed.

Half-baked ideas that sound good on paper — energy price freeze — are an Ed speciality. Just think in only 3 months time Ed will have to deal with issues like combating ISIS at home and abroad.

Yikes!

The govt have already done quite a bit a bit on apprenticeships I think.

They have, but some of the numbers are shall we say a bit inflated. Morrisons for instance have taken on loads and loads on, but closer inspection reveals a significant number aren't quite what you would expect most people would think of as an "apprenticeship ".

isam said:

Tissue_Price said:

Neil Hamilton, Deputy Prime Minister

That's torn it.

Spelled 'Woolfe' wrong tut tut

I genuinely can't see this sort of thing doing UKIP much harm. If it were toned down, it might be considered more seriously.

Grandiose said:

Having looked a bit more at the form, In my opinion no bet represents value on the Scotland v NZ match.

For the record however I expect a 7 wicket or 130 run victory (something like 320/190) for New Zealand.

If New Zealand can score 331 against the test attack of Sri Lanka, then they should score more than 320 against Scotland.

ICM Data tables out


@guardian_clark: Full Gdn/ICM tables on tax, marginals and that 4-point Tory lead
https://t.co/WkOs3LhqDA @anthonyjwells @MSmithsonPB @TSEofPB @tmlbk

Tykejohnno said:

ThomasNashe said:

Tykejohnno said:

On FA cup draw -

Bradford city v reading ,any thoughts ;-)

Another semi-final against Villa beckons?

We seem to be playing a lot of teams in blue in this fa cup run ;-) Halifax,millwall,chelsea ,sunderland away kit and now reading ;-)

FA Cup Final is on Steven Gerrard's birthday.

I'd love to see Bradford in the final, fitting 30 years on from the fire.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Grandiose said:

Having looked a bit more at the form, In my opinion no bet represents value on the Scotland v NZ match.

For the record however I expect a 7 wicket or 130 run victory (something like 320/190) for New Zealand.

If New Zealand can score 331 against the test attack of Sri Lanka, then they should score more than 320 against Scotland.

The handicap (I think you were her earlier) should be tempted for you then, if you're prepared to take the risk they bat second and can only drop a single wicket. [EDIT: NZ put Scotland in, so it won't matter.]

I'm personally not convinced, I expect a bright start but a quite considered middle period for NZ.

At the end of the day since I'm not betting I did have to come out and say something to be judged by.

In any case, I'm off to bed.

TheWatcher said:

isam said:

Casino_Royale said:

isam said:

Tissue_Price said:

Casino_Royale said:

They're already on Airbus pulling out of the UK within seconds of 'PM Farage' announcing the UK withdrawing from the EU.

Yes, it's pretty chilling. Put me right off voting for UKIP.

Best tweet I saw from a kipper about this said if ukip were in charge they'd have closed channel 4 down within 100 days so this shit wouldn't be on!

Ha. To be fair, Channel 4 did do a fairly pro-Farage documentary on the real Nigel Farage a few months ago, so it's not all bad. Although this particular documentary is silly propaganda.

Just switched it on... Unreal really, but I guess they gave Farage an hour with the goggle box crew so yeah fair enough

Hopefully there will be a bit of outrage, bit of publicity and we will go back up in the polls

Kippers across the land must have felt a small stirring at the mention of the words 'PM Farage'.

Very small.

JonnyJimmy said:

Wow... I didn't realise that the bankers' bonus tax was a one off, that Balls has now announced that they'll repeat just once.

How much are they planning to tax them to pay for all this stuff in just two years? How much is paid to bankers in bonuses each year?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KeIvRNsARs

I am interested how you might be able to get the money back after 10 years? I know bankers don't get their money in cash straight away now, but lets say you have done something dodgy, you get your bonus in x years, well if you suspect that maybe, just maybe in the next 5-6 years the government might come to claw it back because you have been up to no good, well there are plenty of ways you can shift your money and then show them empty pockets and say sorry bankrupt.

I am kinda of skeptical full stop how effective anything like that is. High net worth criminals already do it on a massive scale and the whole proceeds of crime act really only manages to get money back off morons.

There was a documentary, I think last year, giving examples of how some big time criminals basically showed the authorities empty pockets when the law caught up with them. 2-3 years in the clink and surprise surprise they are again in their mansions on the Costa del Sol, of course said mansion not in their name.

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Grandiose said:

Having looked a bit more at the form, In my opinion no bet represents value on the Scotland v NZ match.

For the record however I expect a 7 wicket or 130 run victory (something like 320/190) for New Zealand.

If New Zealand can score 331 against the test attack of Sri Lanka, then they should score more than 320 against Scotland.

I'll bet you £100 at evens they score less than 300

Really, given that the Sweaties could bat first? Nice try

Anorak said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Grandiose said:

Having looked a bit more at the form, In my opinion no bet represents value on the Scotland v NZ match.

For the record however I expect a 7 wicket or 130 run victory (something like 320/190) for New Zealand.

If New Zealand can score 331 against the test attack of Sri Lanka, then they should score more than 320 against Scotland.

I'll bet you £100 at evens they score less than 300

Really, given that the Sweaties could bat first? Nice try

It's worse than that, NZ have already put Scotland in! TSE not fooled.

Incidentally I do think Scotland will post enough to prevent a nine-wicket haul (currently 5/6) but not my sort of bet (the casual gambler's outsider).

Before the spiral of silence adjustment, ICM was

Con 36, Lab 32, LD 7, UKIP 10, Greens 7, SNP 6

MikeK said:

MP_SE said:

I hope the end of the programme features the UKIP government collapsing and a LibLabCon government taking power and embracing the Euro and the joys of political union. The country returns to prosperity and lives happily ever after.

Quite possibly they will have Farage on a mat dressed in a kimono with a long knife in his hand ready to commit sepuku. And someone with a Katana ready to chop his head off. A thrilling end to a leftist fantasy smear.

Hopefully there will be some sort of modern day Nuremberg trials where UKIP members up and down the country are tried for their crimes.

For SeanT....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2956040/Journalist-puts-Jewish-skullcap-walks-streets-Paris-filmed-hidden-camera-safe-streets-are.html

Oh dear. Recycling Bloom, Atkinson and Ayling scandals from last year!

nigel4england said:

MikeK said:

State Control ‏@State_Control 3m3 minutes ago
Hey, #UKIP. Seen this documentary?: "Labour: The First 1400 Kids"?
No. Me neither.

Stafford: The first 1200 deaths

Gotta love the scheduling... Seen what's on next??

Meanwhile, to cap the theme of the night, UKIP named Britain's most hated brand, followed by the Tories and Marmite http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/ukip-named-uks-most-hated-brand-followed-by-the-tories-and-marmite/ar-BBhDTvU?ocid=iehp

nigel4england said:

Grandiose said:

Anorak said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Grandiose said:

Having looked a bit more at the form, In my opinion no bet represents value on the Scotland v NZ match.

For the record however I expect a 7 wicket or 130 run victory (something like 320/190) for New Zealand.

If New Zealand can score 331 against the test attack of Sri Lanka, then they should score more than 320 against Scotland.

I'll bet you £100 at evens they score less than 300

Really, given that the Sweaties could bat first? Nice try

It's worse than that, NZ have already put Scotland in! TSE not fooled.

Incidentally I do think Scotland will post enough to prevent a nine-wicket haul (currently 5/6) but not my sort of bet (the casual gambler's outsider).

Nightmare for me as I bought Williamson series runs at 374, just hope he gets a bat

Played for Yorkshire last season,county cricket for me did Williamson a world of good.

@TheWatcher
With "Love Thy Neighbour" on after the late news?

HYUFD

'Meanwhile, to cap the theme of the night, UKIP named Britain's most hated brand, followed by the Tories and Marmite'

Followed by the Labour & Lib Dem brands.