TimT I have always believed it will be very close, but I think it will be a Clinton v Christie battle which Clinton will eke out by about 1%, shades of Nixon v Humphrey in 1968 when Nixon was also running his second presidential election campaign 8 years after he narrowly lost his first
Not to mention polls which show Christie doing badly in all early states and nationwide. Currently there is a much much larger chance of Christie ending in jail than getting the GOP nomination.
As for Hillary, it's either a landslide victory for her like 1996 or 1988, no one is going to beat her next year.
The US is so evenly divided along partisan lines now, that I doubt if anyone will get a landslide, save in exceptional circumstances.
Snap!
It depends on how you define landslide, and if the Republicans are going to consign the fringe right back to the fringe of their party. They look to have finally done that, but if Santorum or a similar candidate were to be the nominee and the GOP platform be gratuitously out of step as it were in 2008, I could see the demographics simply dooming them. Obama's win in 2008 probably wasn't a landslide, but it was more than just a win either.
Council boss who refused to quit over grooming scandal gets £600,000 payoff: Victims' anger over huge redundancy package drawn up on eve of scathing report that will allow her to dodge blame
I notice JackW hasn't posted on here much since Fifty Shades Of Grey was released at the flicks...
#justsaying
Does anyone know how it finishes? I got asked to leave half-way through
Terribly.
It is the worst film ever, and I'm someone who has watched every Twilight film.
Even worse than Titanic?
Titanic had the redeeming feature of Kate Winslet in it
Didn't save it for me... Terrible film. Possibly the worst film ever and certainly worst film to have won Oscars IMO.
Braveheart was the worst film ever to win the Oscars.
So historically inaccurate.
That said, people at the time, Mel Gibson was the wrong person to play a Scot, but look at him now, an alcoholic racist, he's the perfect person to play a Scot.
"Worst" as in absurd. But, it was a hugely entertaining film.
Agree - great fun as a movie, but rubbish history.
The most interesting Titanic film was the Nazi propaganda blockbuster - filmed in glorious B&W at enormous expense - then never released in Germany. Opinions differ on why they never released it (it was one of their biggest hits in occupied Europe) - from "cock up" to worries about analogy of a captain driving the ship of state to destruction....
“The one piece of advice I would give to Bill [a viewer] is that there are some pretty clever financial products that enable you in effect to pass on your home, or the value of your home, to your son or daughter and then get personal care paid for by the state,” Osborne said.
Quincel If Hillary does win, however narrowly, in 2016 I can see the GOP nominating Ted Cruz in 2020 which could offer the opportunity for an LBJ Goldwater Nixon McGovern Reagan Mondale result
Council boss who refused to quit over grooming scandal gets £600,000 payoff: Victims' anger over huge redundancy package drawn up on eve of scathing report that will allow her to dodge blame
I was about to say, ''If there was no legal reason to quit then what could we expect''. But you then say the package was drawn up on the eve of the report. That seems dodgy to me. Who drew it up? Is it open to challenge?
Quincel If Hillary does win, however narrowly, in 2016 I can see the GOP nominating Ted Cruz in 2020 which could offer the opportunity for an LBJ Goldwater Nixon McGovern Reagan Mondale result
I don't like predicting 2 elections ahead, so take this with a handful of salt, but given the advantages incumbents have (and the weaker opponents this leads to, as many candidates skip a cycle) if Hilary is half as good as she looks at the moment come re-election it could be a foregone conclusion.
TimT I have always believed it will be very close, but I think it will be a Clinton v Christie battle which Clinton will eke out by about 1%, shades of Nixon v Humphrey in 1968 when Nixon was also running his second presidential election campaign 8 years after he narrowly lost his first
Not to mention polls which show Christie doing badly in all early states and nationwide. Currently there is a much much larger chance of Christie ending in jail than getting the GOP nomination.
As for Hillary, it's either a landslide victory for her like 1996 or 1988, no one is going to beat her next year.
The US is so evenly divided along partisan lines now, that I doubt if anyone will get a landslide, save in exceptional circumstances.
Snap!
It depends on how you define landslide, and if the Republicans are going to consign the fringe right back to the fringe of their party. They look to have finally done that, but if Santorum or a similar candidate were to be the nominee and the GOP platform be gratuitously out of step as it were in 2008, I could see the demographics simply dooming them. Obama's win in 2008 probably wasn't a landslide, but it was more than just a win either.
The demographic shift has not been as pronounced as some thought it would be because, as I predicted when the book came out, any demographic shift in the population towards one set of demographics was likely in the medium term to be offset with a shift in another demographic away from the Dems. That has happened as they have lost the white working class to the GOP in spectacular fashion. That helps the GOP more in Congressional and State level elections (where they are at an 80 year high), more so than in the Presidential elections. But it is an awful lot of headwinds to fight against for the Dem candidate.
So I would doubt a Dem victory could be by a margin much larger than 3% unless the GOP primaries are a disaster for the party. All indications are, from the mid-terms, that the Establishment is back in charge and has a ground game completely different from the disastrous 2010 and 2012 Senate primaries.
I notice JackW hasn't posted on here much since Fifty Shades Of Grey was released at the flicks...
#justsaying
Does anyone know how it finishes? I got asked to leave half-way through
Terribly.
It is the worst film ever, and I'm someone who has watched every Twilight film.
Even worse than Titanic?
Titanic had the redeeming feature of Kate Winslet in it
Didn't save it for me... Terrible film. Possibly the worst film ever and certainly worst film to have won Oscars IMO.
Braveheart was the worst film ever to win the Oscars.
So historically inaccurate.
That said, people at the time, Mel Gibson was the wrong person to play a Scot, but look at him now, an alcoholic racist, he's the perfect person to play a Scot.
"Worst" as in absurd. But, it was a hugely entertaining film.
Well you know me, I'm a stickler for historical accuracy.
I remember in an old Empire Magazine, they listed 173 historical inaccuracies in the film.
I think "historical fantasy" is probably the correct term. People share the names of people who really lived, but in an alternate universe.
I notice JackW hasn't posted on here much since Fifty Shades Of Grey was released at the flicks...
#justsaying
Does anyone know how it finishes? I got asked to leave half-way through
Terribly.
It is the worst film ever, and I'm someone who has watched every Twilight film.
Even worse than Titanic?
Titanic had the redeeming feature of Kate Winslet in it
Fearures, plural. Perhaps we should have a mockudrama where the Titanic missed the iceberg and arrived safely and somebody got off and immediately ran their car over and killed somebody of future importance, thereby changing the course of history.
Balls’ claim that families should follow his example and seek receipts for every low-cost job was unravelling last night as Labour admitted that the shadow chancellor had not always done so.
Ed Balls’ claim that families should follow his example and seek receipts for every low-cost job was unravelling last night as Labour admitted that the shadow chancellor had not always done so. Even Ed Miliband declined to back Mr Balls as a senior aide confirmed that there “would have been occasions” on which the shadow chancellor did not collect a receipt
I notice JackW hasn't posted on here much since Fifty Shades Of Grey was released at the flicks...
#justsaying
Does anyone know how it finishes? I got asked to leave half-way through
Terribly.
It is the worst film ever, and I'm someone who has watched every Twilight film.
Even worse than Titanic?
Titanic had the redeeming feature of Kate Winslet in it
Didn't save it for me... Terrible film. Possibly the worst film ever and certainly worst film to have won Oscars IMO.
Braveheart was the worst film ever to win the Oscars.
So historically inaccurate.
That said, people at the time, Mel Gibson was the wrong person to play a Scot, but look at him now, an alcoholic racist, he's the perfect person to play a Scot.
"Worst" as in absurd. But, it was a hugely entertaining film.
Agree - great fun as a movie, but rubbish history.
The most interesting Titanic film was the Nazi propaganda blockbuster - filmed in glorious B&W at enormous expense - then never released in Germany. Opinions differ on why they never released it (it was one of their biggest hits in occupied Europe) - from "cock up" to worries about analogy of a captain driving the ship of state to destruction....
ANTR remains the definitive version, but not without its own inaccuracies.
I notice JackW hasn't posted on here much since Fifty Shades Of Grey was released at the flicks...
#justsaying
Does anyone know how it finishes? I got asked to leave half-way through
Terribly.
It is the worst film ever, and I'm someone who has watched every Twilight film.
Even worse than Titanic?
Titanic had the redeeming feature of Kate Winslet in it
Didn't save it for me... Terrible film. Possibly the worst film ever and certainly worst film to have won Oscars IMO.
Braveheart was the worst film ever to win the Oscars.
So historically inaccurate.
That said, people at the time, Mel Gibson was the wrong person to play a Scot, but look at him now, an alcoholic racist, he's the perfect person to play a Scot.
"Worst" as in absurd. But, it was a hugely entertaining film.
Well you know me, I'm a stickler for historical accuracy.
I remember in an old Empire Magazine, they listed 173 historical inaccuracies in the film.
I think "historical fantasy" is probably the correct term. People share the names of people who really lived, but in an alternate universe.
I suppose I shouldn't be that harsh on a film that has the following line in it
"The trouble with Scotland is that it's full of Scots."
Puzzled by Mr Miliband's appearance at JLR, didn't the Labour government turn down an appeal for help from them in the crash? I am not sure how he can take any credit for their success.
Puzzled by Mr Miliband's appearance at JLR, didn't the Labour government turn down an appeal for help from them in the crash? I am not sure how he can take any credit for their success.
No shame? Brass Neck? He might want to look at Tata record on tax as well....
I notice JackW hasn't posted on here much since Fifty Shades Of Grey was released at the flicks...
#justsaying
Does anyone know how it finishes? I got asked to leave half-way through
Terribly.
It is the worst film ever, and I'm someone who has watched every Twilight film.
Even worse than Titanic?
Titanic had the redeeming feature of Kate Winslet in it
Fearures, plural. Perhaps we should have a mockudrama where the Titanic missed the iceberg and arrived safely and somebody got off and immediately ran their car over and killed somebody of future importance, thereby changing the course of history.
Wouldn't that change the course of the future?
It would change the course of back to the future.
I do like time travel films.
If you've not seen it yet, check out Predestination, fantastic movie.
TimT I have always believed it will be very close, but I think it will be a Clinton v Christie battle which Clinton will eke out by about 1%, shades of Nixon v Humphrey in 1968 when Nixon was also running his second presidential election campaign 8 years after he narrowly lost his first
@ HYUFD: Think the Christie bubble has well and truly burst (thoughts of Mr Creosote - need mental bleach). As I said upthread, I think there will effectively be a two-tiered GOP primary: Bush vs Rubio followed by winner vs Walker.
@ Speedy "no one is going to beat her next year". I admire your confidence. She may win (I don't think she will), but it will not be a landslide.
Interesting times.
Who will deal with a post Putin Russia. Assume he get cancer or is under a bus. Whatever follows is likely to be worse.
How will USA cope with Russia and China working in harmony to rid the globe of the Americanisation that they resent from the last 60 years?
The problem with US presidential election forecasting is that there are only 17 observations in the post-war era, so there's big scope for model error. Many were fought in a completely different party system to today's; the South was a swing region until W. I believe despite polarisation that landslides are still possible. It's just that the party which tends to win them post-war is in a secular slump.
EPG FDR used to win landslides, LBJ won a landslide, Clinton a semi landslide in 1996, Ike in 1956, Reagan in 1984, Nixon in 1972 so about even between the parties
It has transpired that interviewees who were presented as members of the public in the story were in fact pre-selected and had ties with the broadcaster.
Only the other week, someone round our way was up before the Beak for saying things about her. His lawyer told the court his client didn't give a flying f***, and would carry on regardless. And there have been at least 2 other incidents on Merseyside I am aware of.
I notice JackW hasn't posted on here much since Fifty Shades Of Grey was released at the flicks...
#justsaying
Does anyone know how it finishes? I got asked to leave half-way through
Terribly.
It is the worst film ever, and I'm someone who has watched every Twilight film.
Even worse than Titanic?
Titanic had the redeeming feature of Kate Winslet in it
Didn't save it for me... Terrible film. Possibly the worst film ever and certainly worst film to have won Oscars IMO.
Braveheart was the worst film ever to win the Oscars.
So historically inaccurate.
That said, people at the time, Mel Gibson was the wrong person to play a Scot, but look at him now, an alcoholic racist, he's the perfect person to play a Scot.
"Worst" as in absurd. But, it was a hugely entertaining film.
Agree - great fun as a movie, but rubbish history.
The most interesting Titanic film was the Nazi propaganda blockbuster - filmed in glorious B&W at enormous expense - then never released in Germany. Opinions differ on why they never released it (it was one of their biggest hits in occupied Europe) - from "cock up" to worries about analogy of a captain driving the ship of state to destruction....
ANTR remains the definitive version, but not without its own inaccuracies.
And the worst a dire stilted early British talkie - Atlantic - I want those 90 minutes back!
Of course in those more respectful times, no one would cash in on a disaster would they?
Would they heck! The first exploitative movie was released within two months of the sinking (featuring a survivor) and as there was no footage of the Titanic (she was just the middle sister of a trio, so not remotely newsworthy until she sank) any four funnelled liner would do - to the extent that some US cities ended up banning 'Titanic' movies.
I once spoke with the oscar winning set designer of Titanic - they all thought the thing would be a complete disaster - Waterworld II - and called the set 'the funnels of doom'.....high on a hill looming over the village they were put up in.
I've cleaned Ed Balls's windows for 17 years and he's never asked me to give him a receipt: Shadow Chancellor accused of total hypocrisy following claims
There is a rhythm to Ed Miliband’s leadership. He is reliably bad most of the time. Then, perhaps once a year, just as his personal ratings and public performances bottom out, he picks a well-judged fight with some passing ogre. Last week, tax evaders (and avoiders) joined Rupert Murdoch, bankers and energy companies on his list of topical enemies. Gradual decay interrupted by exhilarating showdowns: this is the Miliband cycle, like the quiet verse/loud chorus of a Nirvana single.
There is a rhythm to Ed Miliband’s leadership. He is reliably bad most of the time. Then, perhaps once a year, just as his personal ratings and public performances bottom out, he picks a well-judged fight with some passing ogre. Last week, tax evaders (and avoiders) joined Rupert Murdoch, bankers and energy companies on his list of topical enemies. Gradual decay interrupted by exhilarating showdowns: this is the Miliband cycle, like the quiet verse/loud chorus of a Nirvana single.
Absolutely, and thanks to the current split between the Scottish and UK Labour party GE campaign messaging on any deals with the SNP, those Conservative election leaflets North and South of the border are just writing themselves. Its the vote Labour/SNP in Scotland and UKIP down South and get a Lab/SNP Westminster Coalition strategy, or by its other name, a Lab/SNP Confidence and Supply deal.
As I posted a few weeks ago, I was entirely relaxed about the increased focus on such a political alliance being ratcheted up in the media because the biggest losers in the run up to the next GE down South will be Ukip and Labour in those key marginals. As you can imagine, the Scottish Labour party have also a lot more relaxed about giving the impression that they could work with the SNP than their English counterparts within the Labour party over the last few weeks. Funny that.
What should really be worrying Ukip as well right now is Farage's diving personal opinion poll ratings.... That could very well be the biggest indicator that any increased publicity for Ukip during the GE campaign might end up being a negative rather than a positive. I expect to see Ukip polling falling back into single figures over the coming weeks as voters return to the Conservatives.
Sunday, Balls declines to back Miliband's 'deed of variation'.
Monday, Miliband declines to back Balls 'receipts for everything'
Ed Balls’ claim that families should follow his example and seek receipts for every low-cost job was unravelling last night as Labour admitted that he had not always done so.
Even Ed Miliband declined to back Mr Balls as a senior aide confirmed that there “would have been occasions” on which the shadow chancellor did not collect a receipt.
Absolutely, and thanks to the current split between the Scottish and UK Labour party GE campaign messaging on any deals with the SNP, those Conservative election leaflets North and South of the border are just writing themselves. That could very well be the biggest indicator that any increased publicity for Ukip during the GE campaign might end up being a negative rather than a positive. I expect to see Ukip polling falling back into single figures over the coming weeks as voters return to the Conservatives.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 32%, LAB 32%, LD 6%, UKIP 16%, GRN 8%
I assume Cameron has a strategy to win over a third of those Kippers over the next 90 days to get the votes he needs to see him over the line.
Well the problem with your theory is that even with the current unpopularity levels its offers UKIP the capacity of potentially doubling their vote. Polls suggest that up to 30% of voters do not feel particularly opposed to UKIP.
But congratulations for your prediction that UKIP will achieve single figures as it has already been achieved with both ICM and Mori IIRC. There is nothing so surefire as making predictions that have already occurred.As for Yougov UKIPs figure, it is the highest in a fortnight. Perhaps all the OAPs are starting to return from their winter cruises and winter breaks?
Now whether that actually translates into the Tories benefitting is a completely different matter because a) single figures under both ICM and Mori for UKIP is not particularly low for those pollsters and b) apart from fear of Miliband, the Tories seem not have much to offer at all. So far their offering is even duller than 2010 and verging on the minimalism if not the contentious substance of 2005. But hey its early days yet.
Still I wouldn't hold your breath. Cameron's failure to address the English Question with any real conviction on the back of his longstanding equivocation saga over the EU and his abject immigration and general foreign affairs failures (with their knock on implications for National Security) will put many Kippers off a return to the fold no matter how scary (in an Addams Family sort of manner) Ed Miliband seems.
PS I read Farage is so worried about his popularity ratings that he's popping over to the CPAC conference in the States to speak.
"In 2007 the Sunday Mirror reported on the contents of Mr Cameron's bin, and criticised him for using non-biodegradable nappies. Mr Cameron's son, Ivan, was severely disabled and passed away in 2009 at the age of six."
Comments
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2956225/Council-boss-refused-quit-grooming-scandal-gets-600-000-payoff.html
No reward for failure....
The most interesting Titanic film was the Nazi propaganda blockbuster - filmed in glorious B&W at enormous expense - then never released in Germany. Opinions differ on why they never released it (it was one of their biggest hits in occupied Europe) - from "cock up" to worries about analogy of a captain driving the ship of state to destruction....
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/osborne-advised-using-financial-loopholes-to-avoid-tax-and-care-costs
Sure the callers name wasn't Ed or David?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-AN9pqIMAA2_n1.jpg
The expressions and eyebrows are comic genius.
But you then say the package was drawn up on the eve of the report. That seems dodgy to me. Who drew it up? Is it open to challenge?
So I would doubt a Dem victory could be by a margin much larger than 3% unless the GOP primaries are a disaster for the party. All indications are, from the mid-terms, that the Establishment is back in charge and has a ground game completely different from the disastrous 2010 and 2012 Senate primaries.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2956278/Ed-misleading-voters-letters-look-like-NHS-Miliband-fire-cruel-mail-patients-elderly-mistaken-test-results.html
Weaponize that NHS....
I have to say by the standards of some political stuff it is small beer, but Labour have form on this.
I do like time travel films.
Ed Balls’ claim that families should follow his example and seek receipts for every low-cost job was unravelling last night as Labour admitted that the shadow chancellor had not always done so. Even Ed Miliband declined to back Mr Balls as a senior aide confirmed that there “would have been occasions” on which the shadow chancellor did not collect a receipt
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4356397.ece
"The trouble with Scotland is that it's full of Scots."
You do know that he said so at the time? Of course, anyone who didn't hear the clip wouldn't know that.
99% of us?
http://i100.independent.co.uk/image/25946-1f9bboh.jpg
http://www.gluckman.com/Americanization.html
http://www.theguardian.com/books/2014/nov/02/how-the-world-was-won-americanization-of-everywhere-review-peter-conrad
http://www.funnyphotos.net.au/american-china/
http://www.businessinsider.com/china-has-no-desire-for-de-americanized-world-2013-10?IR=T
"it would have been cheaper to lower the Atlantic..."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31489597
Far right Anti-Jewish rally organiser arrested http://ln.is/www.dailymail.co.uk/ooevI … via @MailOnline Joshua Bonehill ex Tory candidate
Quelle surprise!
Yesterday we reported that flood waters had washed away sixty thousand pigs from the farm. It should have read sixty sows and pigs.
It has transpired that interviewees who were presented as members of the public in the story were in fact pre-selected and had ties with the broadcaster.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-31495554
She's not popular, for some reason...
Only the other week, someone round our way was up before the Beak for saying things about her. His lawyer told the court his client didn't give a flying f***, and would carry on regardless. And there have been at least 2 other incidents on Merseyside I am aware of.
Of course in those more respectful times, no one would cash in on a disaster would they?
Would they heck! The first exploitative movie was released within two months of the sinking (featuring a survivor) and as there was no footage of the Titanic (she was just the middle sister of a trio, so not remotely newsworthy until she sank) any four funnelled liner would do - to the extent that some US cities ended up banning 'Titanic' movies.
I once spoke with the oscar winning set designer of Titanic - they all thought the thing would be a complete disaster - Waterworld II - and called the set 'the funnels of doom'.....high on a hill looming over the village they were put up in.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2956365/I-ve-cleaned-Ed-Balls-s-windows-17-years-s-never-asked-receipt-Shadow-Chancellor-accused-total-hypocrisy-following-claims.html
Its all nonsense, but then Ed Balls was muttering nonsense too.
There is a rhythm to Ed Miliband’s leadership. He is reliably bad most of the time. Then, perhaps once a year, just as his personal ratings and public performances bottom out, he picks a well-judged fight with some passing ogre. Last week, tax evaders (and avoiders) joined Rupert Murdoch, bankers and energy companies on his list of topical enemies. Gradual decay interrupted by exhilarating showdowns: this is the Miliband cycle, like the quiet verse/loud chorus of a Nirvana single.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/42544d70-b5ce-11e4-b58d-00144feab7de.html#ixzz3RxUtcdPf
As I posted a few weeks ago, I was entirely relaxed about the increased focus on such a political alliance being ratcheted up in the media because the biggest losers in the run up to the next GE down South will be Ukip and Labour in those key marginals. As you can imagine, the Scottish Labour party have also a lot more relaxed about giving the impression that they could work with the SNP than their English counterparts within the Labour party over the last few weeks. Funny that.
What should really be worrying Ukip as well right now is Farage's diving personal opinion poll ratings.... That could very well be the biggest indicator that any increased publicity for Ukip during the GE campaign might end up being a negative rather than a positive. I expect to see Ukip polling falling back into single figures over the coming weeks as voters return to the Conservatives.
Monday, Miliband declines to back Balls 'receipts for everything'
Ed Balls’ claim that families should follow his example and seek receipts for every low-cost job was unravelling last night as Labour admitted that he had not always done so.
Even Ed Miliband declined to back Mr Balls as a senior aide confirmed that there “would have been occasions” on which the shadow chancellor did not collect a receipt.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4356397.ece
'Berger again.
She's not popular, for some reason..'
Was it the personalized car number plates that put people off?
But congratulations for your prediction that UKIP will achieve single figures as it has already been achieved with both ICM and Mori IIRC. There is nothing so surefire as making predictions that have already occurred.As for Yougov UKIPs figure, it is the highest in a fortnight. Perhaps all the OAPs are starting to return from their winter cruises and winter breaks?
Now whether that actually translates into the Tories benefitting is a completely different matter because a) single figures under both ICM and Mori for UKIP is not particularly low for those pollsters and b) apart from fear of Miliband, the Tories seem not have much to offer at all. So far their offering is even duller than 2010 and verging on the minimalism if not the contentious substance of 2005. But hey its early days yet.
Still I wouldn't hold your breath. Cameron's failure to address the English Question with any real conviction on the back of his longstanding equivocation saga over the EU and his abject immigration and general foreign affairs failures (with their knock on implications for National Security) will put many Kippers off a return to the fold no matter how scary (in an Addams Family sort of manner) Ed Miliband seems.
PS I read Farage is so worried about his popularity ratings that he's popping over to the CPAC conference in the States to speak.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-31486465
'Skunk-like cannabis' increases risk of psychosis, study suggests
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-31480234
You couldn't make it up!
Daily Telegraph - Guardian accused by Tories of smearing David Cameron's father
"In 2007 the Sunday Mirror reported on the contents of Mr Cameron's bin, and criticised him for using non-biodegradable nappies. Mr Cameron's son, Ivan, was severely disabled and passed away in 2009 at the age of six."