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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After six weeks of CON leads or them level-pegging today Lord Ashcroft poll has LAB 1% ahead
After such a day of polling it is very hard to draw any conclusions. I must say that I was expecting Ashcroft to be in the same ball-back as ICM given they are both phone polls using very similar approaches with fieldwork over the same period.
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The Daily Express website has been censured by newspaper watchdog Ipso for publishing what it said was a “significantly distorted” story claiming Ukip was leading Labour in an opinion poll.
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/feb/16/daily-express-website-ipso-ukip-story-nigel-farage?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=dlvr.it
I think the real question is, can the Tories actually shift significant support their way, either via the budget or the campaign itself..or will Ed "35%"...scratch that "33%"...scratch that "31%" strategy get him over the line?
Edited extra bit: apparently Gotham will be returning to Channel 5 fairly soon. No date, though.
Separate the two out and assess the trends and you see very different pictures.
[rubs eyes in disbelief] Ashcroft's tables and spiral of silence adjustments actually make sense this week!!
The spread-betting markets are largely unmoved by today's polls. Both Sporting and Spreadex have Labour on a mid spread of 278 seats with the Tories just ahead on 282 & 283 seats respectively.
The age split is also becoming more common.
Gigantic Labour leads among under 35s on the web.
Still easy to see which political journalists are taking dictation from CCHQ #comfortpolling
This a week after he admits previous polls under his banner were a load of rubbish....
With the impending Oscars, he considers who should act as each of the Party leaders.
Mr Clegg = Tom Cruise or Kevin Bacon.
David Cameron = Hugh Grant or Colin Firth
Mr Miliband = Rowan Atkinson, in character as Mr Bean.
Mr Farage = Ray Winstone or Sid James.
http://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/the-dragon-welsh-flag-nothing-8638789
I was worried they might be flaky
There was polling at the weekend that backed that up actually I think
What odds are you offering?
"UKIP has some good ideas about how to run the country"
Agree: Con 46%, Lab 33%, LD 44%.
p.75
http://comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/SM-IoS-Political-Poll-15th-February-2015_456794.pdf
Conservative voters in Greater London, or the wealthier parts of the Home Counties. or core cities probably dislike UKIP far more than they dislike Labour. The reverse is true of Conservative voters in the urban North, the East Coast, or Devon and Cornwall. Ditto Labour voters.
The remaining Lib Dems, however, seem to like David Cameron and Labour, but dislike the Conservatives and Ed Miliband. Try to work out how the tactical voting might work from that.
Ok... I give in
The amazement surely is that he is being parachuted in. It's a conscious choice.
Surprised nobody has suggested George Cole in his Arthur Daly guise for Nigel F.
Working on a few new markets for sporting index. Any markets that you would like us cover? Covered at past elections and would like us to do again?
But surely the big news from today's 3 polls is that the trend which appeared to be happening at the end of last week may well not in fact be happening.
ie At the end of last week (and in the Sunday polls) it appeared that the Lab lead had inched up to 2% or 2.5% from the 1.5% it had previously been at for some time.
Today's 3 polls average a Con lead of 0.3%. Of course that doesn't mean the true position is a Con lead of 0.3%. However if the true position was a Lab lead of 2% to 2.5% then it's pretty unlikely you would get 3 polls averaging approx 2.5% off that position.
I think the most likely answer is that the true position is a Lab lead of 1.5% - ie where we thought it was until a few days ago - ie that the polls at the end of last week and today are just a bit of random variation.
UKIP would be dangerous if it had any power
Agree 55% (62% Conservative, 71% Labour, 66% Lib Dem)
Disagree 26%
9% of UKIP supporters agree, which is quite revealing.
My only comfort with the ICM poll is I think Lab are above 32%. But that could mean they're on just 33%. Which is still a 3 point deficit! Ha!
How about a spread on the UKIP vote share?
Also, are you going to un-suspend the Swingometer?
In terms of predicting party lead that claim is not accurate. In 1997 Gallup's final poll predicted a Labour lead of 13% which matched the actual outcome - ICM had given Labour a 10% lead. YouGov in 2001 predicted a 10% Labour lead compared with the outcome of 9% with ICM saying 11%..In 2005 NOP predicted the actual outcome of a 3% Labour lead compared with ICM's 6% lead.Finally in 2010 YouGov and MORI predicted a 7% Tory lead compared with the 7.3% outcome - ICM had predicted 8%.
You worked out what odds you want to offer on UKIP winning a seat other than from a defector yet? I wont try and be sneaky and have you over on the fact that Carswell and Reckless are no longer defectors but UKIP incumbents
What price UKIP win a seat that isn't Clacton or Rochester (any future defectors don't count)?
C'mon lets do it!!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/2787307/Labour-donor-Lord-Sainsbury-avoids-27m-capital-gains-tax.html
Some mandate that will be. I do increasingly think (especially with the SNP dynamic) that this might be an excellent election to lose.
Any chance of some sort of market on number of second places? It could perhaps be done as a sort of Performance Index.
But, at the moment, they're still expanding their support. What matters is what voters think of them in the areas where they're in contention. So far as one can tell, voters down the East Coast and South West are pretty receptive to UKIP's message. It doesn't matter if voters in Scotland or Greater London are very hostile.
With large numbers of public sector jobs being lost, the growth is self employment and the job creating abilities of small businesses seems to me where it is politic to give help.
One thing which seems more beyond doubt is the utter despair being felt in SLAB. With little encouragement a great many Labour figures admit they are staring down the barrel of a gun and face a mauling.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-votes-ukip-v-lib-dem
Want to treble the stakes then? I'd be more than happy to oblige...
I'm willing to lose my virginity on a political bet.
I'll take your wager that Ukip win only the two current seats or fewer. But I'd like 10/1 please. I'll bet a nice shiny one pound coin to win ten?
A bet?
Could be done if zero seats are removed if they occur, otherwise it would be hugely volatile.
But seeing as it's just a pound I will lay it... I take 1/10 for a tenner, UKIP win a seat other than Rochester or Clacton
Let YouGov decide
There is no reason for left wingers to vote Labour anymore - certainly not the present Labour.
This of course means that people whom are not left inclined will be voting SNP at their peril. There may not be many seats that suit the Tories but were there are they should be exposing the modern SNP for what they are.
7 UKIP * 2 Green * 50 SNP * 5 PC = 3500...
A more reasonable premise is that people in seats where their preferred government party are unlikely to/ cannot win could hold their nose and turn to UKIP (who will likely hold little influence in the next government) to try and stop the party they oppose from winning. How big those numbers might be depends on the sort of campaign UKIP have and whether they use such tactics in seats they have a chance of winning.
Agreed.
As you're honest, I propose we give the winnings to Charity. Cafod for me, please.
I'm not being too unreasonable; I visit Boston on a regular basis and if they don't go Kipper, you'll know they've been taken over by aliens.
I wasnt working at spin for the last election, but i have been going over the markets we offered for the last election and the business we took, and just looking at markets that would be worthwhile.
I know alot of you on here like spread betting and hold us in high regard but it seems we are not offering you enough from reading the comments over the last few months, so hoping to put that right in the next month.
Will definitely be looking at putting party % vote shares, il look into that for you this week. The Swingometer will be going back up, again will look to address that in the next week or so. I agree the 3-2-1 market was a great market looking back. However, it was a hell of alot of work and it would be especially more so in this election. We didn't take alot of bets on it too, so we wont be offering this, apologies.