Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.
They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.
ComRes found lots of pro-UKIP voters in other parties support.
"UKIP has some good ideas about how to run the country" Agree: Con 46%, Lab 33%, LD 44%.
9% of UKIP supporters agree, which is quite revealing.
If there were one anti-UKIP party, that would be a problem for UKIP. But, we now have six parties with substantial levels of electoral support.
So you simultaneously believe that UKIP will benefit from tactical voting at the general election despite recording by far the worst favourability ratings of any party in the table above and that there will be no tactical voting against UKIP in any seat where UKIP are in contention despite voters believing by 2:1 that UKIP would be dangerous if it had any power?
If UKIP were competing for power nationally against one anti-UKIP party, those would be bad numbers. They'd be in much the same position as the Conservatives were under William Hague.
But, at the moment, they're still expanding their support. What matters is what voters think of them in the areas where they're in contention. So far as one can tell, voters down the East Coast and South West are pretty receptive to UKIP's message. It doesn't matter if voters in Scotland or Greater London are very hostile.
I expect you could have found not dissimiliar levels of the public thinking the DUP and SNP would be 'dangerous' if they got into power 30 years ago.
New, insurgent parties are going to tend to not support the political consensus. That makes them vulnerable to being negatively caricatured by the established parties who can often deploy more effective political propaganda against a party that's still learning the ropes.
It is such a pity that nobody is willing to pay ICM to do a weekly poll.
It is clearly a high quality polling company and probably the highest quality firm operating in the UK.
But it is still subject to the same statistical laws as everyone else. And the fact that it has produced outliers in the past increases its credibility.
For example, a week before the 1997 GE they had a poll with Labour just 5% ahead - 8% out from the actual result. That poll was clearly with the benefit of hindsight an outlier.
Each poll interviews a thousand people - but many of these are excluded by the turnout filter, meaning the VI figures are often based on just 500 - 600 actual responses.
The problem is that we won't know if this poll is an outlier or not until next month.
I tend to agree with Nick and Richard that the underlying position is unlikely to have changed. Every time one party gets a good run of polls and looks to be establishing a lead the momentum disappears and the other party has a good run of polls. Exactly what you would expect if the situation is stable and polls are subject to purely random variation.
A further point - people have argued that Labour should have benefited from a 'good' week. I think this makes the mistake that is often made by politicos in assuming the electorate pays attention to this day to day stuff.
The reality is that opinion usually changes very gradually and it takes an extreme event (like say Iraq / Black Wednesday / The omnishambles budget) to cause a dramatic shift in public opinion.
Never noticed you posting on here before, Frp, but if that's your usual standard, please, please keep posting!
Sorry to disappoint but I've been posting (as fr) since about 2008. I used to "stalk" roger, nick and some Scots bloke but decided to take a Parliament off after the last election.
I do hope Germany puts Greece to the sword and kicks it out of the euro. It would be a resounding message to our voters that voting for kidology economics like that of Ed and Ed is the road to total ruin.
I do hope Germany puts Greece to the sword and kicks it out of the euro. It would be a resounding message to our voters that voting for kidology economics like that of Ed and Ed is the road to total ruin.
And the chart has been updated, and does it show a nascent LD surge?? Probably early days with so few polls in the averaging period, so just a bit of fun...
I wasnt working at spin for the last election, but i have been going over the markets we offered for the last election and the business we took, and just looking at markets that would be worthwhile.
I know alot of you on here like spread betting and hold us in high regard but it seems we are not offering you enough from reading the comments over the last few months, so hoping to put that right in the next month.
Will definitely be looking at putting party % vote shares, il look into that for you this week. The Swingometer will be going back up, again will look to address that in the next week or so. I agree the 3-2-1 market was a great market looking back. However, it was a hell of alot of work and it would be especially more so in this election. We didn't take alot of bets on it too, so we wont be offering this, apologies.
Thanks for the response. I quite understand about the amount of work on the 3-2-1 market.
How about a simpler set of markets on the number of second places? The interesting ones would probably be UKIP and the LibDems.
Working on a few new markets for sporting index. Any markets that you would like us cover? Covered at past elections and would like us to do again?
Great news that you're putting up some more markets. The 3-2-1 market was fascinating last time.
How about a spread on the UKIP vote share?
Also, are you going to un-suspend the Swingometer?
Hey Richard,
I wasnt working at spin for the last election, but i have been going over the markets we offered for the last election and the business we took, and just looking at markets that would be worthwhile.
I know alot of you on here like spread betting and hold us in high regard but it seems we are not offering you enough from reading the comments over the last few months, so hoping to put that right in the next month.
Will definitely be looking at putting party % vote shares, il look into that for you this week. The Swingometer will be going back up, again will look to address that in the next week or so. I agree the 3-2-1 market was a great market looking back. However, it was a hell of alot of work and it would be especially more so in this election. We didn't take alot of bets on it too, so we wont be offering this, apologies.
Great that you're posting on here, Jungleland.
I'll have a think on it and come up for some suggestions on GE markets over the next few days. Take 'em or leave 'em
I wasnt working at spin for the last election, but i have been going over the markets we offered for the last election and the business we took, and just looking at markets that would be worthwhile.
I know alot of you on here like spread betting and hold us in high regard but it seems we are not offering you enough from reading the comments over the last few months, so hoping to put that right in the next month.
Will definitely be looking at putting party % vote shares, il look into that for you this week. The Swingometer will be going back up, again will look to address that in the next week or so. I agree the 3-2-1 market was a great market looking back. However, it was a hell of alot of work and it would be especially more so in this election. We didn't take alot of bets on it too, so we wont be offering this, apologies.
Thanks for the response. I quite understand about the amount of work on the 3-2-1 market.
How about a simpler set of markets on the number of second places? The interesting ones would probably be UKIP and the LibDems.
I wasnt working at spin for the last election, but i have been going over the markets we offered for the last election and the business we took, and just looking at markets that would be worthwhile.
I know alot of you on here like spread betting and hold us in high regard but it seems we are not offering you enough from reading the comments over the last few months, so hoping to put that right in the next month.
Will definitely be looking at putting party % vote shares, il look into that for you this week. The Swingometer will be going back up, again will look to address that in the next week or so. I agree the 3-2-1 market was a great market looking back. However, it was a hell of alot of work and it would be especially more so in this election. We didn't take alot of bets on it too, so we wont be offering this, apologies.
Thanks for the response. I quite understand about the amount of work on the 3-2-1 market.
How about a simpler set of markets on the number of second places? The interesting ones would probably be UKIP and the LibDems.
UKIP second places would definitely be a good market.
Lib Dem lost deposits might be worth considering. Green lost deposits too, for that matter.
I wasnt working at spin for the last election, but i have been going over the markets we offered for the last election and the business we took, and just looking at markets that would be worthwhile.
I know alot of you on here like spread betting and hold us in high regard but it seems we are not offering you enough from reading the comments over the last few months, so hoping to put that right in the next month.
Will definitely be looking at putting party % vote shares, il look into that for you this week. The Swingometer will be going back up, again will look to address that in the next week or so. I agree the 3-2-1 market was a great market looking back. However, it was a hell of alot of work and it would be especially more so in this election. We didn't take alot of bets on it too, so we wont be offering this, apologies.
Thanks for the response. I quite understand about the amount of work on the 3-2-1 market.
How about a simpler set of markets on the number of second places? The interesting ones would probably be UKIP and the LibDems.
And just to make Mondays even more exciting, how about a market on the number of poll leads between now and May 7th?
And the chart has been updated, and does it show a nascent LD surge?? Probably early days with so few polls in the averaging period, so just a bit of fun...
And the chart has been updated, and does it show a nascent LD surge?? Probably early days with so few polls in the averaging period, so just a bit of fun...
I think it is because my latest point contains polls from the 12th of February onwards, and will be for a 15-day period, rather than a weekly average like yours. I thought about making other averaging windows, but then almost lost the will to live coding it in the spreadsheet. Hah
And the chart has been updated, and does it show a nascent LD surge?? Probably early days with so few polls in the averaging period, so just a bit of fun...
I do hope Germany puts Greece to the sword and kicks it out of the euro. It would be a resounding message to our voters that voting for kidology economics like that of Ed and Ed is the road to total ruin.
You do know that Germany had a bit of debt written off after ze War?
And the chart has been updated, and does it show a nascent LD surge?? Probably early days with so few polls in the averaging period, so just a bit of fun...
Looks like Greece is heading for the exit. I have word that the meeting went extremely poorly, Greece willing to make almost no changes to their current path, creditor nations only want minor changes made to the original austerity plan laid out by the Troika.
We moved a few steps closer to a disorderly exit today, especially now that AfD are taking votes off Merkel's CDU in Western Germany.
@petethepunter thanks for the welcome, that market would be very similar to the 3-2-1 we did at the last election
3pts for each constituency this party wins; 2pts for each constituency this party finishes second; 1pt for each constituency this party finishes third. 0pts for any other result.
Its just not manageable, and would be way to risky when you take into account all the factors going into this election, its a betting nightmare and we didnt see much business on it last time. Plus im sure you lot would just have our pants down, and i dont want to us do get our fingers badly burnt and retreat back into the political wilderness. I have plans for the republican primaries, and next US election!
I do hope Germany puts Greece to the sword and kicks it out of the euro. It would be a resounding message to our voters that voting for kidology economics like that of Ed and Ed is the road to total ruin.
You do know that Germany had a bit of debt written off after ze War?
And the chart has been updated, and does it show a nascent LD surge?? Probably early days with so few polls in the averaging period, so just a bit of fun...
"Will definitely be looking at putting party % vote shares, il look into that for you this week."
It's strange none of the fixed odds bookmakers are offering vote share markets themselves. I assume the lines would be something like Labour o/u 32.5% , Conservatives o/u 34.5%, Lib Dems o/u 11.5%, UKIP o/u 12.5%, Greens o/u 5.5%
How stupid Cameron looks boasting about his work in Libya. What is it about political leaders like Bush Blair and Cameron that makes them engage in these triumphalist gestures. They nearly always end in tears and the one in Libya with Sarkozy was particularly stupid.
Mr. Surbiton, not so sure. Neither major party is especially inspirational, and a Eurocalypse [copyright: Morris Dancer] could seek UKIP support surge. (Or not, of course).
And the chart has been updated, and does it show a nascent LD surge?? Probably early days with so few polls in the averaging period, so just a bit of fun...
Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.
They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.
Yes, Antifrank seems to have confused the 1% odd balls on this site who follow politics for the electorate, most of whom barely have an opinion on the party they vote for, let alone others.
And the chart has been updated, and does it show a nascent LD surge?? Probably early days with so few polls in the averaging period, so just a bit of fun...
@petethepunter thanks for the welcome, that market would be very similar to the 3-2-1 we did at the last election
3pts for each constituency this party wins; 2pts for each constituency this party finishes second; 1pt for each constituency this party finishes third. 0pts for any other result.
Its just not manageable, and would be way to risky when you take into account all the factors going into this election, its a betting nightmare and we didnt see much business on it last time. Plus im sure you lot would just have our pants down, and i dont want to us do get our fingers badly burnt and retreat back into the political wilderness. I have plans for the republican primaries, and next US election!
I wasnt working at spin for the last election, but i have been going over the markets we offered for the last election and the business we took, and just looking at markets that would be worthwhile.
I know alot of you on here like spread betting and hold us in high regard but it seems we are not offering you enough from reading the comments over the last few months, so hoping to put that right in the next month.
Will definitely be looking at putting party % vote shares, il look into that for you this week. The Swingometer will be going back up, again will look to address that in the next week or so. I agree the 3-2-1 market was a great market looking back. However, it was a hell of alot of work and it would be especially more so in this election. We didn't take alot of bets on it too, so we wont be offering this, apologies.
Thanks for the response. I quite understand about the amount of work on the 3-2-1 market.
How about a simpler set of markets on the number of second places? The interesting ones would probably be UKIP and the LibDems.
And just to make Mondays even more exciting, how about a market on the number of poll leads between now and May 7th?
Noted, will look at 2nd places for ukip and lost deposits-lib dem. Cant promise anything, but will price it up myself this week and have a look.
Pete, mondays are exciting enough mate, i dont want to spend all day refreshing twitter for poll leaks.
I wasnt working at spin for the last election, but i have been going over the markets we offered for the last election and the business we took, and just looking at markets that would be worthwhile.
I know alot of you on here like spread betting and hold us in high regard but it seems we are not offering you enough from reading the comments over the last few months, so hoping to put that right in the next month.
Will definitely be looking at putting party % vote shares, il look into that for you this week. The Swingometer will be going back up, again will look to address that in the next week or so. I agree the 3-2-1 market was a great market looking back. However, it was a hell of alot of work and it would be especially more so in this election. We didn't take alot of bets on it too, so we wont be offering this, apologies.
Thanks for the response. I quite understand about the amount of work on the 3-2-1 market.
How about a simpler set of markets on the number of second places? The interesting ones would probably be UKIP and the LibDems.
And just to make Mondays even more exciting, how about a market on the number of poll leads between now and May 7th?
Noted, will look at 2nd places for ukip and lost deposits-lib dem. Cant promise anything, but will price it up myself this week and have a look.
Pete, mondays are exciting enough mate, i dont want to spend all day refreshing twitter for poll leaks.
Lol!
Wasn't entirely serious, Jungle. Thanks for your efforts.
Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.
They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.
Yes, Antifrank seems to have confused the 1% odd balls on this site who follow politics for the electorate, most of whom barely have an opinion on the party they vote for, let alone others.
I seem actually to have read the opinion poll findings at the top of the page. I realise that those are highly uncongenial for the kippers who think that everyone thinks as they do, but the starkest of findings that most of the public actually loathe them are being ignored.
@petethepunter thanks for the welcome, that market would be very similar to the 3-2-1 we did at the last election
3pts for each constituency this party wins; 2pts for each constituency this party finishes second; 1pt for each constituency this party finishes third. 0pts for any other result.
Its just not manageable, and would be way to risky when you take into account all the factors going into this election, its a betting nightmare and we didnt see much business on it last time. Plus im sure you lot would just have our pants down, and i dont want to us do get our fingers badly burnt and retreat back into the political wilderness. I have plans for the republican primaries, and next US election!
@petethepunter thanks for the welcome, that market would be very similar to the 3-2-1 we did at the last election
3pts for each constituency this party wins; 2pts for each constituency this party finishes second; 1pt for each constituency this party finishes third. 0pts for any other result.
Its just not manageable, and would be way to risky when you take into account all the factors going into this election, its a betting nightmare and we didnt see much business on it last time. Plus im sure you lot would just have our pants down, and i dont want to us do get our fingers badly burnt and retreat back into the political wilderness. I have plans for the republican primaries, and next US election!
Mr. Max, still about a fortnight to go, though, yes? Or would a disorderly exit begin before that?
Possibly as soon as Friday. The debt and support for Greek banks are two separate issues. At the moment Greek banks receive around €60-70bn in emergency support from the ECB, essentially people can withdraw money from their accounts on demand. At midnight on Wednesday that support turns off and the Greek central bank will have to cover the shortfall, but they don't have the power to create money and they don't have foreign reserves to cash in either. By Friday the Greek government will run out of money and the banks will also have run out of money regardless of the actual debt that needs to be rolled over at the end of the month. People will walk away from cash points empty handed and their savings will not be accessible, they won't even be able to get €20 out from their accounts to pay for petrol or groceries.
The only way to head off the cash shortage would be new money creation, which means a new currency over which the Greek government and central bank have complete control. This cash shortage is a completely separate issue from the more general issue of debt and is much more urgent. The ECB hold all of the cards and are insisting that they cannot continue to support Greek banks if the terms of the bailout are not being met.
Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.
They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.
Yes, Antifrank seems to have confused the 1% odd balls on this site who follow politics for the electorate, most of whom barely have an opinion on the party they vote for, let alone others.
I seem actually to have read the opinion poll findings at the top of the page. I realise that those are highly uncongenial for the kippers who think that everyone thinks as they do, but the starkest of findings that most of the public actually loathe them are being ignored.
Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.
They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.
Yes, Antifrank seems to have confused the 1% odd balls on this site who follow politics for the electorate, most of whom barely have an opinion on the party they vote for, let alone others.
I seem actually to have read the opinion poll findings at the top of the page. I realise that those are highly uncongenial for the kippers who think that everyone thinks as they do, but the starkest of findings that most of the public actually loathe them are being ignored.
@petethepunter thanks for the welcome, that market would be very similar to the 3-2-1 we did at the last election
3pts for each constituency this party wins; 2pts for each constituency this party finishes second; 1pt for each constituency this party finishes third. 0pts for any other result.
Its just not manageable, and would be way to risky when you take into account all the factors going into this election, its a betting nightmare and we didnt see much business on it last time. Plus im sure you lot would just have our pants down, and i dont want to us do get our fingers badly burnt and retreat back into the political wilderness. I have plans for the republican primaries, and next US election!
@petethepunter thanks for the welcome, that market would be very similar to the 3-2-1 we did at the last election
3pts for each constituency this party wins; 2pts for each constituency this party finishes second; 1pt for each constituency this party finishes third. 0pts for any other result.
Its just not manageable, and would be way to risky when you take into account all the factors going into this election, its a betting nightmare and we didnt see much business on it last time. Plus im sure you lot would just have our pants down, and i dont want to us do get our fingers badly burnt and retreat back into the political wilderness. I have plans for the republican primaries, and next US election!
And the chart has been updated, and does it show a nascent LD surge?? Probably early days with so few polls in the averaging period, so just a bit of fun...
Looks like the brief pause in Kipper decline is over.
Treble our bet?
Nah - Mike K is covering your bet with his crazy wager. Would feel dirty if I lost money to team Kipper overall.
tut tut
The decline seen in the latest point is most likely due to the 9% share from ICM. Do they prompt for UKIP?
I don't think the evidence shows that prompting for UKIP helps to be honest, but I think ICM weight heavily on 2010 vote which is never going to be good for a party that got 3% against one that got 23%
Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.
They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.
Yes, Antifrank seems to have confused the 1% odd balls on this site who follow politics for the electorate, most of whom barely have an opinion on the party they vote for, let alone others.
I seem actually to have read the opinion poll findings at the top of the page. I realise that those are highly uncongenial for the kippers who think that everyone thinks as they do, but the starkest of findings that most of the public actually loathe them are being ignored.
Sorry, I missed the question about 'hating' and 'loathing' - silly me for thinking not everyone is as politically obsessed as you.
You're projecting ridiculous language and strength of feeling on to relatively weak responses from people who would not think of these issues if not phoned and asked.
Soviet football legend Aleksandr Zavarov joins journalist Ruslan Kotsaba to become a another martyr for peace by risking a potential 5 year prison sentence by refusing to be conscripted to fight in the Donbass. “I will say one thing, I will never fight where my family and kids live, where my parents are buried,” the assistant coach for the Ukraine national team said. “I just want peace.”
Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.
They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.
Yes, Antifrank seems to have confused the 1% odd balls on this site who follow politics for the electorate, most of whom barely have an opinion on the party they vote for, let alone others.
I seem actually to have read the opinion poll findings at the top of the page. I realise that those are highly uncongenial for the kippers who think that everyone thinks as they do, but the starkest of findings that most of the public actually loathe them are being ignored.
Sorry, I missed the question about 'hating' and 'loathing' - silly me for thinking not everyone is as politically obsessed as you.
You're projecting ridiculous language and strength of feeling on to relatively weak responses from people who would not think of these issues if not phoned and asked.
Relatively weak? In a scale from -100 to +100, the average score for UKIP is -26 and for Nigel Farage is -27. Labour voters put Nigel Farage at -55. By way of comparison, UKIP voters put Nigel Farage at +62, and as we have often seen on here, they take some persuading that Mr Farage cannot turn water into wine.
Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.
They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.
Yes, Antifrank seems to have confused the 1% odd balls on this site who follow politics for the electorate, most of whom barely have an opinion on the party they vote for, let alone others.
I seem actually to have read the opinion poll findings at the top of the page. I realise that those are highly uncongenial for the kippers who think that everyone thinks as they do, but the starkest of findings that most of the public actually loathe them are being ignored.
Spiteful and childish in equal measure. Fifty years ago a poll would have found that "most of the public actually loathe" active male homosexuals, by a much wider margin than anyone now loathes UKIP. Discuss.
@petethepunter thanks for the welcome, that market would be very similar to the 3-2-1 we did at the last election
3pts for each constituency this party wins; 2pts for each constituency this party finishes second; 1pt for each constituency this party finishes third. 0pts for any other result.
Its just not manageable, and would be way to risky when you take into account all the factors going into this election, its a betting nightmare and we didnt see much business on it last time. Plus im sure you lot would just have our pants down, and i dont want to us do get our fingers badly burnt and retreat back into the political wilderness. I have plans for the republican primaries, and next US election!
@petethepunter thanks for the welcome, that market would be very similar to the 3-2-1 we did at the last election
3pts for each constituency this party wins; 2pts for each constituency this party finishes second; 1pt for each constituency this party finishes third. 0pts for any other result.
Its just not manageable, and would be way to risky when you take into account all the factors going into this election, its a betting nightmare and we didnt see much business on it last time. Plus im sure you lot would just have our pants down, and i dont want to us do get our fingers badly burnt and retreat back into the political wilderness. I have plans for the republican primaries, and next US election!
MaxPB is absolutely right about the mechanism for potential Grexit.
I'm out the office this week, and out of touch, but it all sounds quite ominous for the people of Greece.
That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a last minute agreement. Greece would have no negotiating power if they appeared scared of Grexit.
Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.
They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.
Yes, Antifrank seems to have confused the 1% odd balls on this site who follow politics for the electorate, most of whom barely have an opinion on the party they vote for, let alone others.
I seem actually to have read the opinion poll findings at the top of the page. I realise that those are highly uncongenial for the kippers who think that everyone thinks as they do, but the starkest of findings that most of the public actually loathe them are being ignored.
Sorry, I missed the question about 'hating' and 'loathing' - silly me for thinking not everyone is as politically obsessed as you.
You're projecting ridiculous language and strength of feeling on to relatively weak responses from people who would not think of these issues if not phoned and asked.
Relatively weak? In a scale from -100 to +100, the average score for UKIP is -26 and for Nigel Farage is -27. Labour voters put Nigel Farage at -55. By way of comparison, UKIP voters put Nigel Farage at +62, and as we have often seen on here, they take some persuading that Mr Farage cannot turn water into wine.
Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.
They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.
Yes, Antifrank seems to have confused the 1% odd balls on this site who follow politics for the electorate, most of whom barely have an opinion on the party they vote for, let alone others.
I seem actually to have read the opinion poll findings at the top of the page. I realise that those are highly uncongenial for the kippers who think that everyone thinks as they do, but the starkest of findings that most of the public actually loathe them are being ignored.
Spiteful and childish in equal measure. Fifty years ago a poll would have found that "most of the public actually loathe" active male homosexuals, by a much wider margin than anyone now loathes UKIP. Discuss.
Were a poofters party standing for election in 1966, that would indeed have been problematic for them. But that's an alternative history I'm unfamiliar with.
Guess the Americans won't be fighting the Russians to the last Ukrainian.
My friend from Rostov in Russia is actually fighting with the Ukranians, as are many other Russians. Another Russian lad in his battalion had his legs blown off before Christmas, but wanted to hold onto his gun so he could go to Valhalla. Very Messy war.
The ICM figures put the Tories 19 short of a majority, add the 22 LDs and you get another Tory-LD Coalition. The Ashcroft figures have Labour 5 short, and likely more with Scotland http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator
So we are still heading for a hung parliament either way, the key difference is ICM has UKIP below 10%, Ashcroft on 16%, so it is the Tories eating into the UKIP vote with ICM which has given them a lead there
Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.
They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.
Yes, Antifrank seems to have confused the 1% odd balls on this site who follow politics for the electorate, most of whom barely have an opinion on the party they vote for, let alone others.
I seem actually to have read the opinion poll findings at the top of the page. I realise that those are highly uncongenial for the kippers who think that everyone thinks as they do, but the starkest of findings that most of the public actually loathe them are being ignored.
Sorry, I missed the question about 'hating' and 'loathing' - silly me for thinking not everyone is as politically obsessed as you.
You're projecting ridiculous language and strength of feeling on to relatively weak responses from people who would not think of these issues if not phoned and asked.
Relatively weak? In a scale from -100 to +100, the average score for UKIP is -26 and for Nigel Farage is -27. Labour voters put Nigel Farage at -55. By way of comparison, UKIP voters put Nigel Farage at +62, and as we have often seen on here, they take some persuading that Mr Farage cannot turn water into wine.
Are you related to Matthew Parris by any chance? Only he seems as desperate as you to prove how awful UKIP are.
MaxPB is absolutely right about the mechanism for potential Grexit.
I'm out the office this week, and out of touch, but it all sounds quite ominous for the people of Greece.
That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a last minute agreement. Greece would have no negotiating power if they appeared scared of Grexit.
If people in Greece realised that come Friday they won't get any money out of the banks they would surely be queuing up at banks now.
Working on a few new markets for sporting index. Any markets that you would like us cover? Covered at past elections and would like us to do again?
Jungle - A spread market on Nick Clegg's majority (or otherwise) in thousands (settled to the nearest decimal point, i.e. 100 votes) at Sheffield Hallam would be fun.
Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.
They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.
Yes, Antifrank seems to have confused the 1% odd balls on this site who follow politics for the electorate, most of whom barely have an opinion on the party they vote for, let alone others.
I seem actually to have read the opinion poll findings at the top of the page. I realise that those are highly uncongenial for the kippers who think that everyone thinks as they do, but the starkest of findings that most of the public actually loathe them are being ignored.
Sorry, I missed the question about 'hating' and 'loathing' - silly me for thinking not everyone is as politically obsessed as you.
You're projecting ridiculous language and strength of feeling on to relatively weak responses from people who would not think of these issues if not phoned and asked.
Relatively weak? In a scale from -100 to +100, the average score for UKIP is -26 and for Nigel Farage is -27. Labour voters put Nigel Farage at -55. By way of comparison, UKIP voters put Nigel Farage at +62, and as we have often seen on here, they take some persuading that Mr Farage cannot turn water into wine.
Are you related to Matthew Parris by any chance? Only he seems as desperate as you to prove how awful UKIP are.
Let's try to put this in terms that kippers can understand. The average member of the public feels considerably more hostile about UKIP and Nigel Farage than the average kipper feels about David Cameron.
MaxPB is absolutely right about the mechanism for potential Grexit.
I'm out the office this week, and out of touch, but it all sounds quite ominous for the people of Greece.
That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a last minute agreement. Greece would have no negotiating power if they appeared scared of Grexit.
If people in Greece realised that come Friday they won't get any money out of the banks they would surely be queuing up at banks now.
They think the honey will keep flowing. It's what Syriza promised.
And the chart has been updated, and does it show a nascent LD surge?? Probably early days with so few polls in the averaging period, so just a bit of fun...
And the chart has been updated, and does it show a nascent LD surge?? Probably early days with so few polls in the averaging period, so just a bit of fun...
Looks like the brief pause in Kipper decline is over.
Treble our bet?
Nah - Mike K is covering your bet with his crazy wager. Would feel dirty if I lost money to team Kipper overall.
tut tut
The decline seen in the latest point is most likely due to the 9% share from ICM. Do they prompt for UKIP?
I don't think the evidence shows that prompting for UKIP helps to be honest, but I think ICM weight heavily on 2010 vote which is never going to be good for a party that got 3% against one that got 23%
Normally, past vote recall is a good re-weighting parameter. However, UKIP's rise in England and , less so, SNP's in Scotland [ the population of England is 10 x Scotland ] makes a mockery of that for the DK's .
Well the ICM was fun. Really not sure that his Lordship is getting VFM but he is certainly getting talked about which is presumably the main thing.
I agree with the comment on the last thread, can't remember who unfortunately, who said that with 5 or 6 active parties outliers should be more common and polling generally more volatile.
This is going to be a seriously interesting election. Anyone who has contrived an all green book should quit while they're ahead.
At the risk of being partisan did anyone else find Ed's idea of talking to business today being about imposing more obligations on them in the form of apprenticeships genuinely funny? I am still not sure he will need it but there are definitely second career opportunities being explored here.
"A universal-credit claimant who featured in a government film to promote the reform now says the system is riddled with computer problems and could make people destitute."
Presumably a top-flight IT consultant, now down on his luck. Otherwise I can't see why his opinion should be given so much prominence, as his whole experience boils down to "they paid me late".
MaxPB is absolutely right about the mechanism for potential Grexit.
I'm out the office this week, and out of touch, but it all sounds quite ominous for the people of Greece.
That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a last minute agreement. Greece would have no negotiating power if they appeared scared of Grexit.
If people in Greece realised that come Friday they won't get any money out of the banks they would surely be queuing up at banks now.
They think the honey will keep flowing. It's what Syriza promised.
..... and incredibly they're probably right about that.
The ICM figures put the Tories 19 short of a majority, add the 22 LDs and you get another Tory-LD Coalition. The Ashcroft figures have Labour 5 short, and likely more with Scotland http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator
So we are still heading for a hung parliament either way, the key difference is ICM has UKIP below 10%, Ashcroft on 16%, so it is the Tories eating into the UKIP vote with ICM which has given them a lead there
Outside election periods (May 2013, May 2014 and the two by election period in the autumn, ICM has UKIP in the range of 9%-11% consistently. Unless their share falls further its hard to prove this is anything more than a normal ICM share for UKIP outside elections
Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.
They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.
Yes, Antifrank seems to have confused the 1% odd balls on this site who follow politics for the electorate, most of whom barely have an opinion on the party they vote for, let alone others.
I seem actually to have read the opinion poll findings at the top of the page. I realise that those are highly uncongenial for the kippers who think that everyone thinks as they do, but the starkest of findings that most of the public actually loathe them are being ignored.
Sorry, I missed the question about 'hating' and 'loathing' - silly me for thinking not everyone is as politically obsessed as you.
You're projecting ridiculous language and strength of feeling on to relatively weak responses from people who would not think of these issues if not phoned and asked.
Relatively weak? In a scale from -100 to +100, the average score for UKIP is -26 and for Nigel Farage is -27. Labour voters put Nigel Farage at -55. By way of comparison, UKIP voters put Nigel Farage at +62, and as we have often seen on here, they take some persuading that Mr Farage cannot turn water into wine.
Are you related to Matthew Parris by any chance? Only he seems as desperate as you to prove how awful UKIP are.
Has Antifrank had a hand in the making of the C4 smear on UKIP, that will be broadcast tonight?
Across Great Britain as a whole, Labour is up two and the Tories down one on 2010, a swing against Cameron of 1.5%. In the English battleground seats, however – defined as those which the Tories won by up to 15 points last time, plus those where Labour clung on by no more than 10 points – the Conservatives are unchanged on 38%, while Labour is actually down three on 33%.
and
The one class of seat where Labour looks to be doing materially better is the Tory heartlands. In those places where the Conservatives won by 15 points or more last time, Labour is up by an average of eight, which comes mostly from the Liberal Democrats – so good, but not good enough.
Obviously all the above can be adjusted by 5% or so to allow for the unusually pro-Tory poll. But it's yet more evidence against that 11.4% "England swing" figure we've frequently seen quoted on here.
MaxPB is absolutely right about the mechanism for potential Grexit.
I'm out the office this week, and out of touch, but it all sounds quite ominous for the people of Greece.
That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a last minute agreement. Greece would have no negotiating power if they appeared scared of Grexit.
If people in Greece realised that come Friday they won't get any money out of the banks they would surely be queuing up at banks now.
Having checked in, I hear there may be an "interim" agreement this week, to allow for further talks over the next few months...
Mr. Max, still about a fortnight to go, though, yes? Or would a disorderly exit begin before that?
Possibly as soon as Friday. The debt and support for Greek banks are two separate issues. At the moment Greek banks receive around €60-70bn in emergency support from the ECB, essentially people can withdraw money from their accounts on demand. At midnight on Wednesday that support turns off and the Greek central bank will have to cover the shortfall, but they don't have the power to create money and they don't have foreign reserves to cash in either. By Friday the Greek government will run out of money and the banks will also have run out of money regardless of the actual debt that needs to be rolled over at the end of the month. People will walk away from cash points empty handed and their savings will not be accessible, they won't even be able to get €20 out from their accounts to pay for petrol or groceries.
The only way to head off the cash shortage would be new money creation, which means a new currency over which the Greek government and central bank have complete control. This cash shortage is a completely separate issue from the more general issue of debt and is much more urgent. The ECB hold all of the cards and are insisting that they cannot continue to support Greek banks if the terms of the bailout are not being met.
Those being the hard facts, the Greeks' only negotiating ploy is to up the ante beyond mere financial matters. "Well, if you're going to tell 79% of the Greeks to piss off, we will. We'll create a new currency, we'll go through unnecessary hardship through the transition back to the drachma, and we'll blame it on you. By leaving the EU, leaving NATO and finding other friends you don't like." That is their only ploy. And it only works if they believe it and will execute the threat. They are probably factoring in at least some Europeans taking them at their word.
So the questions are, would the Greeks really follow through on such a threat and, if they would, will the other Europeans correctly assess their intentions? Because no sane European - or Greek - should want that eventuality.
MaxPB is absolutely right about the mechanism for potential Grexit.
I'm out the office this week, and out of touch, but it all sounds quite ominous for the people of Greece.
That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a last minute agreement. Greece would have no negotiating power if they appeared scared of Grexit.
If people in Greece realised that come Friday they won't get any money out of the banks they would surely be queuing up at banks now.
Having checked in, I hear there may be an "interim" agreement this week, to allow for further talks over the next few months...
Across Great Britain as a whole, Labour is up two and the Tories down one on 2010, a swing against Cameron of 1.5%. In the English battleground seats, however – defined as those which the Tories won by up to 15 points last time, plus those where Labour clung on by no more than 10 points – the Conservatives are unchanged on 38%, while Labour is actually down three on 33%.
and
The one class of seat where Labour looks to be doing materially better is the Tory heartlands. In those places where the Conservatives won by 15 points or more last time, Labour is up by an average of eight, which comes mostly from the Liberal Democrats – so good, but not good enough.
Obviously all the above can be adjusted by 5% or so to allow for the unusually pro-Tory poll. But it's yet more evidence against that 11.4% "England swing" figure we've frequently seen quoted on here.
But, but we have had endless threads explaining how the Tories are doing worse in the marginals. Surely that can't be right.
Does kinda support my theory that the tory vote will be significantly more efficient than it was in 2010 though.
Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.
They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.
Yes, Antifrank seems to have confused the 1% odd balls on this site who follow politics for the electorate, most of whom barely have an opinion on the party they vote for, let alone others.
I seem actually to have read the opinion poll findings at the top of the page. I realise that those are highly uncongenial for the kippers who think that everyone thinks as they do, but the starkest of findings that most of the public actually loathe them are being ignored.
Sorry, I missed the question about 'hating' and 'loathing' - silly me for thinking not everyone is as politically obsessed as you.
You're projecting ridiculous language and strength of feeling on to relatively weak responses from people who would not think of these issues if not phoned and asked.
Relatively weak? In a scale from -100 to +100, the average score for UKIP is -26 and for Nigel Farage is -27. Labour voters put Nigel Farage at -55. By way of comparison, UKIP voters put Nigel Farage at +62, and as we have often seen on here, they take some persuading that Mr Farage cannot turn water into wine.
Are you related to Matthew Parris by any chance? Only he seems as desperate as you to prove how awful UKIP are.
Has Antifrank had a hand in the making of the C4 smear on UKIP, that will be broadcast tonight?
Are C4 going to say amongst other things that the party has a lot of racists in it?
Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.
They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.
Yes, Antifrank seems to have confused the 1% odd balls on this site who follow politics for the electorate, most of whom barely have an opinion on the party they vote for, let alone others.
I seem actually to have read the opinion poll findings at the top of the page. I realise that those are highly uncongenial for the kippers who think that everyone thinks as they do, but the starkest of findings that most of the public actually loathe them are being ignored.
Spiteful and childish in equal measure. Fifty years ago a poll would have found that "most of the public actually loathe" active male homosexuals, by a much wider margin than anyone now loathes UKIP. Discuss.
Were a poofters party standing for election in 1966, that would indeed have been problematic for them. But that's an alternative history I'm unfamiliar with.
The more sane view is that almost all cases of loathing are to be deprecated rather than celebrated, irrespective of electoral considerations.
Across Great Britain as a whole, Labour is up two and the Tories down one on 2010, a swing against Cameron of 1.5%. In the English battleground seats, however – defined as those which the Tories won by up to 15 points last time, plus those where Labour clung on by no more than 10 points – the Conservatives are unchanged on 38%, while Labour is actually down three on 33%.
and
The one class of seat where Labour looks to be doing materially better is the Tory heartlands. In those places where the Conservatives won by 15 points or more last time, Labour is up by an average of eight, which comes mostly from the Liberal Democrats – so good, but not good enough.
Obviously all the above can be adjusted by 5% or so to allow for the unusually pro-Tory poll. But it's yet more evidence against that 11.4% "England swing" figure we've frequently seen quoted on here.
But, but we have had endless threads explaining how the Tories are doing worse in the marginals. Surely that can't be right.
Does kinda support my theory that the tory vote will be significantly more efficient than it was in 2010 though.
Might be worth looking at some Tory gains...
Southampton Itchen Derby North Birmingham Edgbaston Telford Bolton West Hampstead and Kilburn Dumfries and Galloway Halifax
MaxPB is absolutely right about the mechanism for potential Grexit.
I'm out the office this week, and out of touch, but it all sounds quite ominous for the people of Greece.
That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a last minute agreement. Greece would have no negotiating power if they appeared scared of Grexit.
If people in Greece realised that come Friday they won't get any money out of the banks they would surely be queuing up at banks now.
Having checked in, I hear there may be an "interim" agreement this week, to allow for further talks over the next few months...
I wouldn't count on that. From what I hear the Germans are seriously ticked and a bit of humiliation is thought to be in order.
Having checked in, I hear there may be an "interim" agreement this week, to allow for further talks over the next few months...
I think the creditors would be crazy to do that. Crazy. Allow these jokers a few more months to grandstand around throwing insults and promise payment at the same time as voting themselves more money so that the payment will never take place? They would be fools.
I do hope Germany puts Greece to the sword and kicks it out of the euro. It would be a resounding message to our voters that voting for kidology economics like that of Ed and Ed is the road to total ruin.
The impact on UK aside (Grexit would likely lower our borrowing costs to record levels, but likely hit the economy, and bank shares too - some of which are still govt. owned), I imagine there will be, when it comes down to it, slightly more political well to prevent Anyexit than to allow Grexit...
I dread to think how this would impact the UKIP/Con position. If managed correctly (i.e. Eurozone members pay for the failure of part of the eurozone) it would be a Con triumph, if not (i.e. all EU members pay Greek bills) I can see UKIP hitting 20%....
I do hope Germany puts Greece to the sword and kicks it out of the euro. It would be a resounding message to our voters that voting for kidology economics like that of Ed and Ed is the road to total ruin.
The impact on UK aside (Grexit would likely lower our borrowing costs to record levels, but likely hit the economy, and bank shares too - some of which are still govt. owned), I imagine there will be, when it comes down to it, slightly more political well to prevent Anyexit than to allow Grexit...
I dread to think how this would impact the UKIP/Con position. If managed correctly (i.e. Eurozone members pay for the failure of part of the eurozone) it would be a Con triumph, if not (i.e. all EU members pay Greek bills) I can see UKIP hitting 20%....
I think we'd all have to chip in, sadly. The stuff of kipper dreams...
Ozzie has finally broken into "social media". Could this be a leadership bid?
"Osborne advice on tax avoidance resurfaces Posted at 16:58 A 2003 appearance on the BBC's Daily Politics by George Osborne is doing the rounds on social media. Mr Osborne suggests a caller to the programme investigates some "pretty clever financial products". The clip comes about 30 seconds into this highlights' selection."
Across Great Britain as a whole, Labour is up two and the Tories down one on 2010, a swing against Cameron of 1.5%. In the English battleground seats, however – defined as those which the Tories won by up to 15 points last time, plus those where Labour clung on by no more than 10 points – the Conservatives are unchanged on 38%, while Labour is actually down three on 33%.
and
The one class of seat where Labour looks to be doing materially better is the Tory heartlands. In those places where the Conservatives won by 15 points or more last time, Labour is up by an average of eight, which comes mostly from the Liberal Democrats – so good, but not good enough.
Obviously all the above can be adjusted by 5% or so to allow for the unusually pro-Tory poll. But it's yet more evidence against that 11.4% "England swing" figure we've frequently seen quoted on here.
If Labour is up by 8pt in seats the Tories won by 15 points or more last time, that is equivalent to a 16 percent swing in seats that they still lose
Hence the swing in more marginal seats will be lower, on average...
MaxPB is absolutely right about the mechanism for potential Grexit.
I'm out the office this week, and out of touch, but it all sounds quite ominous for the people of Greece.
That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a last minute agreement. Greece would have no negotiating power if they appeared scared of Grexit.
If people in Greece realised that come Friday they won't get any money out of the banks they would surely be queuing up at banks now.
Having checked in, I hear there may be an "interim" agreement this week, to allow for further talks over the next few months...
If it is the same as I have seen then it is more hope than expectation. The phrase "coming to their senses" has been bandied about quite a bit. I agree that there will be a last minute fudge, but I'm not sure what it will achieve.
The disagreement between the EU and SYRIZA is too basic. The EU reforms basically create an Anglo-Saxon style capitalist country in Greece, but SYRIZA want to create a socialist country. The gulf between these two positions is just too large to breach.
Across Great Britain as a whole, Labour is up two and the Tories down one on 2010, a swing against Cameron of 1.5%. In the English battleground seats, however – defined as those which the Tories won by up to 15 points last time, plus those where Labour clung on by no more than 10 points – the Conservatives are unchanged on 38%, while Labour is actually down three on 33%.
and
The one class of seat where Labour looks to be doing materially better is the Tory heartlands. In those places where the Conservatives won by 15 points or more last time, Labour is up by an average of eight, which comes mostly from the Liberal Democrats – so good, but not good enough.
Obviously all the above can be adjusted by 5% or so to allow for the unusually pro-Tory poll. But it's yet more evidence against that 11.4% "England swing" figure we've frequently seen quoted on here.
If Labour is up by 8pt in seats the Tories won by 15 points or more last time, that is equivalent to a 16 percent swing in seats that they still lose
Hence the swing in more marginal seats will be lower, on average...
I think most of that 8 points is from the LDs. But then again the Tories are losing some to UKIP in the same seats, so maybe it comes out in the wash.
Conservative voters hate UKIP as much as they hate Labour. Labour voters hate UKIP much more than they hate the Conservatives. And Lib Dem voters are far more hostile to UKIP than either Labour or the Conservatives. Still, I'm sure that UKIP supporters will remain confident that they can get tactical votes aplenty.
They've proved that they can, in a string of by-elections.
.
Yes, Antifrank seems to have confused the 1% odd balls on this site who follow politics for the electorate, most of whom barely have an opinion on the party they vote for, let alone others.
I seem actually to have read the opinion poll findings at the top of the page. I realise that those are highly uncongenial for the kippers who think that everyone thinks as they do, but the starkest of findings that most of the public actually loathe them are being ignored.
.
Are you related to Matthew Parris by any chance? Only he seems as desperate as you to prove how awful UKIP are.
Let's try to put this in terms that kippers can understand. The average member of the public feels considerably more hostile about UKIP and Nigel Farage than the average kipper feels about David Cameron.
Putting aside the condescending arrogance of your tone and your use of the mythological concept of 'average voters' (there is no such thing), so now a 'negative feeling' becomes active 'hostility' does it?
That your every attempt to explain this includes excessive hyperbole which just isn't demonstrated by the language of the question is more demostratIve of your personal attitudes toward UKIP than anything else.
Its very easy to feel negative about something that you are unfamiliar with and I would suggest most voters are far less familiar with UKIP than they are the other parties listed. Add to that the lengths which some in the media and elsewhere go to slur UKIP and it is hardly surprising that there is a considerable level of negativity around them. Voters do not have sufficient direct personal experience of UKIP to do anything else but take the media and other politicians who they are more familiar with at face value (foolish I know). However does that necessarily convert into 'hostility'? I don't think so.
You do seem way too personally invested in proving how awful UKIP are for it to be healthy for you.
Comments
New, insurgent parties are going to tend to not support the political consensus. That makes them vulnerable to being negatively caricatured by the established parties who can often deploy more effective political propaganda against a party that's still learning the ropes.
It is clearly a high quality polling company and probably the highest quality firm operating in the UK.
But it is still subject to the same statistical laws as everyone else. And the fact that it has produced outliers in the past increases its credibility.
For example, a week before the 1997 GE they had a poll with Labour just 5% ahead - 8% out from the actual result. That poll was clearly with the benefit of hindsight an outlier.
Each poll interviews a thousand people - but many of these are excluded by the turnout filter, meaning the VI figures are often based on just 500 - 600 actual responses.
The problem is that we won't know if this poll is an outlier or not until next month.
I tend to agree with Nick and Richard that the underlying position is unlikely to have changed. Every time one party gets a good run of polls and looks to be establishing a lead the momentum disappears and the other party has a good run of polls. Exactly what you would expect if the situation is stable and polls are subject to purely random variation.
A further point - people have argued that Labour should have benefited from a 'good' week. I think this makes the mistake that is often made by politicos in assuming the electorate pays attention to this day to day stuff.
The reality is that opinion usually changes very gradually and it takes an extreme event (like say Iraq / Black Wednesday / The omnishambles budget) to cause a dramatic shift in public opinion.
Welcome back.
Agreed. I expect to be the one doing the paying.
Telegraph: Ant and Dec knocking Ed Miliband is bad news for Labour
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11416207/Ant-and-Dec-knocking-Ed-Miliband-is-bad-news-for-Labour.html
Independent: Ant and Dec interviewed about politics for whatever reason, say they're not sure about Ed Miliband as prime minister
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/ant-and-dec-interviewed-about-politics-for-whatever-reason-say-theyre-not-sure-about-ed-miliband-as-prime-minister-10049663.html
http://goo.gl/9RfFdf
How about a simpler set of markets on the number of second places? The interesting ones would probably be UKIP and the LibDems.
I'll have a think on it and come up for some suggestions on GE markets over the next few days. Take 'em or leave 'em
Lib Dem lost deposits might be worth considering. Green lost deposits too, for that matter.
We moved a few steps closer to a disorderly exit today, especially now that AfD are taking votes off Merkel's CDU in Western Germany.
3pts for each constituency this party wins;
2pts for each constituency this party finishes second;
1pt for each constituency this party finishes third.
0pts for any other result.
Its just not manageable, and would be way to risky when you take into account all the factors going into this election, its a betting nightmare and we didnt see much business on it last time. Plus im sure you lot would just have our pants down, and i dont want to us do get our fingers badly burnt and retreat back into the political wilderness. I have plans for the republican primaries, and next US election!
@tissue_price
I like that market.
@isam Maybe, with just the one party it will be more manageable, could do it as part of ukip specials. Be interesting to see what mid point i come to.
Looking at individual consistences, will get some UKIP target seats up for you isam.
The methodology of all the pollsters need to be scrutinised. Some will have egg on their faces come May 8th.
It's strange none of the fixed odds bookmakers are offering vote share markets themselves.
I assume the lines would be something like Labour o/u 32.5% , Conservatives o/u 34.5%, Lib Dems o/u 11.5%, UKIP o/u 12.5%, Greens o/u 5.5%
Pete, mondays are exciting enough mate, i dont want to spend all day refreshing twitter for poll leaks.
Wasn't entirely serious, Jungle. Thanks for your efforts.
The only way to head off the cash shortage would be new money creation, which means a new currency over which the Greek government and central bank have complete control. This cash shortage is a completely separate issue from the more general issue of debt and is much more urgent. The ECB hold all of the cards and are insisting that they cannot continue to support Greek banks if the terms of the bailout are not being met.
You're projecting ridiculous language and strength of feeling on to relatively weak responses from people who would not think of these issues if not phoned and asked.
Vote Shares %
Turnout %
Smallest Majority
Largest Majority
Gains by Party (NB not net gains)
http://rt.com/news/232579-football-player-ukraine-military/
Guess the Americans won't be fighting the Russians to the last Ukrainian.
"Ro-Ro-Ro the UKIP Boat"???
25/10 UKIP performance in constituencies beginning "Ro"
I'm out the office this week, and out of touch, but it all sounds quite ominous for the people of Greece.
That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a last minute agreement. Greece would have no negotiating power if they appeared scared of Grexit.
Pete-Already priced Watford, maybe abit of value for labour backers if you think they can get 2nd place. Will note Eastleigh.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator
So we are still heading for a hung parliament either way, the key difference is ICM has UKIP below 10%, Ashcroft on 16%, so it is the Tories eating into the UKIP vote with ICM which has given them a lead there
I agree with the comment on the last thread, can't remember who unfortunately, who said that with 5 or 6 active parties outliers should be more common and polling generally more volatile.
This is going to be a seriously interesting election. Anyone who has contrived an all green book should quit while they're ahead.
At the risk of being partisan did anyone else find Ed's idea of talking to business today being about imposing more obligations on them in the form of apprenticeships genuinely funny? I am still not sure he will need it but there are definitely second career opportunities being explored here.
Presumably a top-flight IT consultant, now down on his luck. Otherwise I can't see why his opinion should be given so much prominence, as his whole experience boils down to "they paid me late".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-31487792
Across Great Britain as a whole, Labour is up two and the Tories down one on 2010, a swing against Cameron of 1.5%. In the English battleground seats, however – defined as those which the Tories won by up to 15 points last time, plus those where Labour clung on by no more than 10 points – the Conservatives are unchanged on 38%, while Labour is actually down three on 33%.
and
The one class of seat where Labour looks to be doing materially better is the Tory heartlands. In those places where the Conservatives won by 15 points or more last time, Labour is up by an average of eight, which comes mostly from the Liberal Democrats – so good, but not good enough.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/what-icm-poll-means-for-uk-parties-election-campaign
Obviously all the above can be adjusted by 5% or so to allow for the unusually pro-Tory poll. But it's yet more evidence against that 11.4% "England swing" figure we've frequently seen quoted on here.
So the questions are, would the Greeks really follow through on such a threat and, if they would, will the other Europeans correctly assess their intentions? Because no sane European - or Greek - should want that eventuality.
Does kinda support my theory that the tory vote will be significantly more efficient than it was in 2010 though.
Maybe not this time.
Syriza has overplayed its hand. And that's being very generous to Syriza.
Southampton Itchen
Derby North
Birmingham Edgbaston
Telford
Bolton West
Hampstead and Kilburn
Dumfries and Galloway
Halifax
Alex quite amusing and on point: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/alex/
I think the creditors would be crazy to do that. Crazy. Allow these jokers a few more months to grandstand around throwing insults and promise payment at the same time as voting themselves more money so that the payment will never take place? They would be fools.
I dread to think how this would impact the UKIP/Con position. If managed correctly (i.e. Eurozone members pay for the failure of part of the eurozone) it would be a Con triumph, if not (i.e. all EU members pay Greek bills) I can see UKIP hitting 20%....
"Osborne advice on tax avoidance resurfaces
Posted at 16:58
A 2003 appearance on the BBC's Daily Politics by George Osborne is doing the rounds on social media. Mr Osborne suggests a caller to the programme investigates some "pretty clever financial products". The clip comes about 30 seconds into this highlights' selection."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-31481032
Hence the swing in more marginal seats will be lower, on average...
The disagreement between the EU and SYRIZA is too basic. The EU reforms basically create an Anglo-Saxon style capitalist country in Greece, but SYRIZA want to create a socialist country. The gulf between these two positions is just too large to breach.
That your every attempt to explain this includes excessive hyperbole which just isn't demonstrated by the language of the question is more demostratIve of your personal attitudes toward UKIP than anything else.
Its very easy to feel negative about something that you are unfamiliar with and I would suggest most voters are far less familiar with UKIP than they are the other parties listed. Add to that the lengths which some in the media and elsewhere go to slur UKIP and it is hardly surprising that there is a considerable level of negativity around them. Voters do not have sufficient direct personal experience of UKIP to do anything else but take the media and other politicians who they are more familiar with at face value (foolish I know). However does that necessarily convert into 'hostility'? I don't think so.
You do seem way too personally invested in proving how awful UKIP are for it to be healthy for you.