If they do now spend months negotiating, that will presumably be long enough to turn Tspiras native. If he's lucky they won't make him fly home from Germany with a piece of paper to present to a grateful country.
'Turn native'; I think you don't realise what a difficult situation he (and Greece) is in. Every outcome is shit; the question is which is least shit.
Default, and see a sudden dramatic fall in the real value of wages and pensions, and the destruction of the banks (and with them, people's savings). But almost certainly start to grow again.
Or struggle through, under the control of the IMF, with relentlessly high (albeit slowly declining) unemployment.
Economic reality says that money in has to equal money out, and that debts must be paid back or renegotiated.
Nothing Tsiparas - or anyone else does - can change that.
Grexit
Ha very good! Is that your original? Going to nick it please?
It's fairly common - same root as Brexit. Not mine to claim.
Ah! First time I've seen or heard the word Brexit (waits for Ishmail to jump). Must show the different circles in which we move
Last time I was on here - last night, in the midst of feeding the baby - there was talk of some big story in the Sun about the zNHS which wasn't being included in any of the paper round-ups while the lawyers checked it. Did anything become of it?
Not sure - is it the one where the Shadow Health Minister has admitted that labour will close hospitals and cut beds if they get elected in May?
Have Labour got anything left? They have now blown up their only real chance of victory and I am sure the Tories will run with this till May.
So thats no MEPs and no commissioners then. It stands to reason the an agreement between Norway and the EU actually has terms to that agreement. Within that agreement is free movement of labour membership of Schengen and obeying the rules of the EU single market. Norway obeys the EU working time directive. It seems unlikely to me that any independent UK 'free trade agreement' with the EU would not involve things like the working time directive and any attempt to change that directive would be extremely unlikely from outside the EU. The end result is that if we are in the EEA then it might well be best for the UK nince we are not in the Euro. But it will not make much difference to single market issues. Its actually because we are not in the Euro that we need to renegotiate with the EU. I welcome a referendum on that. And whatever the nation votes it will have to live with.
You really don't understand this at all do you. The reason that Norway is happy to sign up to the Working Time Directive - and they do not have to - is because their rules are actually stricter than those of the EU. They introduced a maximum 48 working week in 1919. The average working week in Norway is 33 hours. They obey much of the EU law by default because they have higher working rights than the rest of the EU.
And the reason it doesn't matter about MEPs and Commissioners is because EFTA representatives have full participation on all the committees involved in the instigation and development all regulation that impacts EFTA countries and can change that regulation before it ever reaches the point of a vote. Indeed through the EEA agreement EFTA members often have more influence on the development of new regulation than individual EU members.
SYRIZA is a loose coalition, which contains some Lula type characters, who are broadly in favour of the bail out, albeit with a belief that concessions are possible. It also contains some who are communist and fundamentally anti euro. It is likely that the coalition will not survive a potential imf deal.
If they do now spend months negotiating, that will presumably be long enough to turn Tspiras native. If he's lucky they won't make him fly home from Germany with a piece of paper to present to a grateful country.
'Turn native'; I think you don't realise what a difficult situation he (and Greece) is in. Every outcome is shit; the question is which is least shit.
Default, and see a sudden dramatic fall in the real value of wages and pensions, and the destruction of the banks (and with them, people's savings). But almost certainly start to grow again.
Or struggle through, under the control of the IMF, with relentlessly high (albeit slowly declining) unemployment.
Economic reality says that money in has to equal money out, and that debts must be paid back or renegotiated.
Nothing Tsiparas - or anyone else does - can change that.
You missed one option: you do a controlled/negotiated Grexit (presumably with capital controls, pre-printing of currency, and a forced conversion of euro denominated debt into drachma at the official exchange rate).
And then you default...
Why would any business in Greece accept drachma that are obviously designed to drop in value when they could keep in taking hard currency?
Greece can leave the Euro if it wants to, that won't make the Euro leave Greece.
If the state pays employees in drachma and there is a forced conversion of all Greek bank accounts they may not have much choice.
What bank accounts? On your assumption that the accounts would be converted to drachmas at a silly rate and then the currency falls further - well, are there any bank accounts left in Greece? If you had money in a Greek bank account now - would you keep it there?
If they do now spend months negotiating, that will presumably be long enough to turn Tspiras native. If he's lucky they won't make him fly home from Germany with a piece of paper to present to a grateful country.
'Turn native'; I think you don't realise what a difficult situation he (and Greece) is in. Every outcome is shit; the question is which is least shit.
Default, and see a sudden dramatic fall in the real value of wages and pensions, and the destruction of the banks (and with them, people's savings). But almost certainly start to grow again.
Or struggle through, under the control of the IMF, with relentlessly high (albeit slowly declining) unemployment.
Economic reality says that money in has to equal money out, and that debts must be paid back or renegotiated.
Nothing Tsiparas - or anyone else does - can change that.
You missed one option: you do a controlled/negotiated Grexit (presumably with capital controls, pre-printing of currency, and a forced conversion of euro denominated debt into drachma at the official exchange rate).
And then you default...
Why would any business in Greece accept drachma that are obviously designed to drop in value when they could keep in taking hard currency?
Greece can leave the Euro if it wants to, that won't make the Euro leave Greece.
If the state pays employees in drachma and there is a forced conversion of all Greek bank accounts they may not have much choice.
What bank accounts? On your assumption that the accounts would be converted to drachmas at a silly rate and then the currency falls further - well, are there any bank accounts left in Greece? If you had money in a Greek bank account now - would you keep it there?
That's why it is done over a weekend: so you can screw the depositors. By the time they know it's happening, it's too late...
I have a central cash pooling system plus a smattering of USD and EUR accounts for settlement purposes. Nothing in Greece...
If they do now spend months negotiating, that will presumably be long enough to turn Tspiras native. If he's lucky they won't make him fly home from Germany with a piece of paper to present to a grateful country.
'Turn native'; I think you don't realise what a difficult situation he (and Greece) is in. Every outcome is shit; the question is which is least shit.
Default, and see a sudden dramatic fall in the real value of wages and pensions, and the destruction of the banks (and with them, people's savings). But almost certainly start to grow again.
Or struggle through, under the control of the IMF, with relentlessly high (albeit slowly declining) unemployment.
Economic reality says that money in has to equal money out, and that debts must be paid back or renegotiated.
Nothing Tsiparas - or anyone else does - can change that.
You missed one option: you do a controlled/negotiated Grexit (presumably with capital controls, pre-printing of currency, and a forced conversion of euro denominated debt into drachma at the official exchange rate).
And then you default...
Why would any business in Greece accept drachma that are obviously designed to drop in value when they could keep in taking hard currency?
Greece can leave the Euro if it wants to, that won't make the Euro leave Greece.
If the state pays employees in drachma and there is a forced conversion of all Greek bank accounts they may not have much choice.
What bank accounts? On your assumption that the accounts would be converted to drachmas at a silly rate and then the currency falls further - well, are there any bank accounts left in Greece? If you had money in a Greek bank account now - would you keep it there?
The smart money would have left a long while ago. There were reports a while back of London being awash with Greek money looking for a safe haven. Estate agents stated that there were a lot of Greek investors looking to buy high end property as it is a viewed as a relatively safe asset class.
Morning all. Nice cartoon marf, so as a Tory supporter, can anyone tell me what the "line to take" is on Bashir's membership of Respect ? *innocent face*
Morning all. Nice cartoon marf, so as a Tory supporter, can anyone tell me what the "line to take" is on Bashir's membership of Respect ? *innocent face*
Tories supporters don't have "lines to take". They just say what they think.
Morning all. Nice cartoon marf, so as a Tory supporter, can anyone tell me what the "line to take" is on Bashir's membership of Respect ? *innocent face*
Tories supporters don't have "lines to take". They just say what they think.
Supporters in general, sure. But what line are we all expecting the top brass to take I wonder.
Morning all. Nice cartoon marf, so as a Tory supporter, can anyone tell me what the "line to take" is on Bashir's membership of Respect ? *innocent face*
I think the latest on that revelation is Bashir denied it and Gorgeous George has claimed he has photographic evidence which suggests otherwise.
Well, the Greeks seem to have gone for the nuclear option.
There are now two possible outcomes: disaster, if they get what they voted for, and disappointment, if (as seems likely) Tsipras negotiates some kind of fudge.
He has one card, and it's a powerful one: the absolute priority the EU elite give (with good reason, to be fair) to the need not to let membership of the Euro appear reversible. That would undermine the whole Euro project, and make the economics unworkable.
Holding that card gives him some leverage, but not enough to conjure money out of thin air. So the only possible outcome, other than disaster, is fudge - but of course either way there can be no end to 'austerity' (i.e. spending something moderately close to what you earn).
Is it really in UKIP's interest to keep this story going? I would have thought 'more in sorrow than in anger...' would have dampened it down faster than the 'amazing revelations/character assassination' (delete as appropriate) we are seeing....
...Or is it a clever ruse to bury Farage's NHS U-turn and the double spend of the 'Leaving the EU' money?
UKIP's new pledge to spend an extra £3bn a year is an about turn for Nigel Farage. Gone was his message that ring-fencing NHS spending after the general election is "ridiculous", replaced instead by support for what George Osborne has already promised, and then some.
This will please UKIP MP Douglas Carswell, who has said the party must pledge to spend more. It seems he's won the battle with the leader - and former policy chief Tim Aker - who both made it clear that cuts to NHS spending were not off the table.
Well, the Greeks seem to have gone for the nuclear option.
There are now two possible outcomes: disaster, if they get what they voted for, and disappointment, if (as seems likely) Tsipras negotiates some kind of fudge.
He has one card, and it's a powerful one: the absolute priority the EU elite give (with good reason, to be fair) to the need not to let membership of the Euro appear reversible. That would undermine the whole Euro project, and make the economics unworkable.
Holding that card gives him some leverage, but not enough to conjure money out of thin air. So the only possible outcome, other than disaster, is fudge - but of course either way there can be no end to 'austerity' (i.e. spending something moderately close to what you earn).
Surely the economics for some countries, are unworkable?
One of the major weapons a country has, in managing its economy, is the ability to adjust the value of its currency, and adjust interest rates.
With the advent of the Euro, that has gone. Spain and Greece have the same currency and interest rate as France and Germany. That might be good for Germany - not so much so for Spain and Greece.
The Euro is a political construct, with no realistic economic component.
Alex Wickham (@WikiGuido) 25/01/2015 17:00 Pros of defection: headache for UKIP Cons of defection: he's a loony and has to be barricaded inside his house with a Tory press officer
but of course either way there can be no end to 'austerity' (i.e. spending something moderately close to what you earn).
Or an alternative definition is 'spending people's hard-earned taxes on public services for those taxpayers, rather than showering unaccountable bond-market traders with goodies'.
Rod Crosby lies over the ocean, Rod Crosby lies over the sea, Rod Crosby lies over the ocean, O swingback Rod Crosby to me. Swingback, swingback, O swingback Rod Crosby to me, to me: Swingback, swingback, O swingback Rod Crosby to me.
Alex Wickham (@WikiGuido) 25/01/2015 17:00 Pros of defection: headache for UKIP Cons of defection: he's a loony and has to be barricaded inside his house with a Tory press officer
I think so far he has been a member of the SDP, Labour, Tories, Respect, UKIP and finally the Tories. I feel rather sorry for the Lib Dems as he is yet to join them. There is still time as he won't be up for re-election until 2020.
Alex Wickham (@WikiGuido) 25/01/2015 17:00 Pros of defection: headache for UKIP Cons of defection: he's a loony and has to be barricaded inside his house with a Tory press officer
I think so far he has been a member of the SDP, Labour, Tories, Respect, UKIP and finally the Tories. I feel rather sorry for the Lib Dems as he is yet to join them. There is still time as he won't be up for re-election until 2020.
He didn't pass Respect's vetting procedures. Respect - a party headed by Gorgeous George, not being able to pass their vetting procedures. FFs...
but of course either way there can be no end to 'austerity' (i.e. spending something moderately close to what you earn).
Or an alternative definition is 'spending people's hard-earned taxes on public services for those taxpayers, rather than showering unaccountable bond-market traders with goodies'.
I think you're missing his point - it's not where the money is spent, it's the fact that it is spent. Spending is spending. The laws of mathematics cannot be evaded for ever.
In fairness I think UEFA have calculated that a European candidate would not have enough votes, so they have thrown their weight behind Prince Ali in the hope he can pick up votes from Europe and Asia.
'Or an alternative definition is 'spending people's hard-earned taxes on public services for those taxpayers, rather than showering unaccountable bond-market traders with goodies'.
Great,you just need to explain who will lend to you the next time you need money.
Ultimately fracking cannot be compatible with our long-term commitments to cut climate-changing emissions unless full-scale carbon capture and storage technology is rolled out rapidly, which currently looks unlikely," said committee chair Joan Walley MP.....
....Prof Quentin Fisher of the University of Leeds said the committee was putting the "ill-informed views of anti-fracking groups" ahead of evidence-based scientific studies.
"Gas will be a significant part of the UK's energy mix for the foreseeable future and it is preferable that we are as self-sufficient as possible," he said.
"Hopefully, MPs will reject the findings of this report and allow UK citizens to receive the economic and social benefits that shale gas extraction could bring."
Euro hits 11-year low after Syriza victory in Greece The euro has fallen sharply against the dollar after the anti-austerity Syriza party won the Greek general election.
Labour's former Europe minister Peter Hain compared the measures imposed on the Greeks to the restrictions placed upon Germany after the First World War. On Twitter he said: "Fantastic Syriza win: austerity does not work for Greece, for Tory/Lib Dem UK, nor for EU; we all need investment in growth not savage cuts." Earlier, on BBC1's Andrew Marr Show, he said: "I think this will be a big kick to the orthodoxy, the austerity gripping the European Union and, indeed, most of the world including Britain."
Look forward to the two Ed's enthusiastic endorsement.......
Labour could cut the number of hospital beds under its plans to merge health and social care, Andy Burnham has hinted.
The shadow health secretary was accused of "rank hypocrisy" after comments emerged indicating that cutting beds would help pay for his policy, which could even result in hospital closures.
The Sun on Sunday reported that Mr Burnham insisted treating the separate health and social care budgets as one would deliver much better results.
149/150 seats seems to be on a knife edge, with 151 out of reach - unless there is a late precint "Virginia" reporting effect that suddenly skews things Syriza's way.
I sense that this may not have been the best night to ask a non-greece related question...
But having said that, the late-night crew may answer something the evening shift could not.
So, my question is this: "what were the betting odds on the night before the 2010 UK general election?"
I've tried everywhere, but with no success. So if anybody has a clue, I'd be grateful
They might have been mentioned in the PB archives. Here are the May 2010 pages. The comments aren't there any more unfortunately, but the headers may have mentioned something.
I sense that this may not have been the best night to ask a non-greece related question...
But having said that, the late-night crew may answer something the evening shift could not.
So, my question is this: "what were the betting odds on the night before the 2010 UK general election?"
I've tried everywhere, but with no success. So if anybody has a clue, I'd be grateful
Conservative was a bit high, and Lib Dems way too high, with Labour too low in the spreads. I rmember that !
From the somewhat frantic reading up I've been doing, there is an inherent problem with translating odds to probabilities. Aside from the previously discussed over round, there is also the fact that bookiemath does not acknowledge the existence of zero nor infinity: a bookie will not offer odds of 0/1 on an absolutely certain event, nor infinity/1 on an impossible event. I think the lowest shadsy will go is 1/100, and the highest odds I've seen for the present parliament is 999/1.
However, this is neither here nor there. Unfortunately, I need the exact odds...:-(
I sense that this may not have been the best night to ask a non-greece related question...
But having said that, the late-night crew may answer something the evening shift could not.
So, my question is this: "what were the betting odds on the night before the 2010 UK general election?"
I've tried everywhere, but with no success. So if anybody has a clue, I'd be grateful
Conservative was a bit high, and Lib Dems way too high, with Labour too low in the spreads. I rmember that !
From the somewhat frantic reading up I've been doing, there is an inherent problem with translating odds to probabilities. Aside from the previously discussed over round, there is also the fact that bookiemath does not acknowledge the existence of zero nor infinity: a bookie will not offer odds of 0/1 on an absolutely certain event, nor infinity/1 on an impossible event. I think the lowest shadsy will go is 1/100, and the highest odds I've seen for the present parliament is 999/1.
However, this is neither here nor there. Unfortunately, I need the exact odds...:-(
I think SYRIZA will get 150, the constituencies with more than 10% left have SYRIZA ahead, one of the large one (Ahaia) still has another 12.4% to be counted with SYRIZA at 43% there.
Comments
Have Labour got anything left? They have now blown up their only real chance of victory and I am sure the Tories will run with this till May.
And the reason it doesn't matter about MEPs and Commissioners is because EFTA representatives have full participation on all the committees involved in the instigation and development all regulation that impacts EFTA countries and can change that regulation before it ever reaches the point of a vote. Indeed through the EEA agreement EFTA members often have more influence on the development of new regulation than individual EU members.
SYRIZA is a loose coalition, which contains some Lula type characters, who are broadly in favour of the bail out, albeit with a belief that concessions are possible. It also contains some who are communist and fundamentally anti euro. It is likely that the coalition will not survive a potential imf deal.
Syriza and To Potami must have had (among) their largest unfilled quotas in this constituency and so were awarded seats also.
#UkipFilmTitles
Look away now kippers, but it's very funny in places.
I have a central cash pooling system plus a smattering of USD and EUR accounts for settlement purposes. Nothing in Greece...
Check out FPTP also!
I was monitoring Twitter but with the vast majority of the tweets being in Greek it is a little hard to work out what is going on.
Was 148, GD gained one from from ND (for about 30 minutes), and then lost it to Syriza.
To Potami then gained a seat from ND. It's not impossible that Syriza could yet gain that seat.
The joys of largest remainder PR....
Syriza still 0.63% away from target with only 13.5% remaining.
Caveat: I've no idea which areas are left to count....
Only about 0.14 of a seat in it...
Well, the Greeks seem to have gone for the nuclear option.
There are now two possible outcomes: disaster, if they get what they voted for, and disappointment, if (as seems likely) Tsipras negotiates some kind of fudge.
He has one card, and it's a powerful one: the absolute priority the EU elite give (with good reason, to be fair) to the need not to let membership of the Euro appear reversible. That would undermine the whole Euro project, and make the economics unworkable.
Holding that card gives him some leverage, but not enough to conjure money out of thin air. So the only possible outcome, other than disaster, is fudge - but of course either way there can be no end to 'austerity' (i.e. spending something moderately close to what you earn).
So close to crossover
...Or is it a clever ruse to bury Farage's NHS U-turn and the double spend of the 'Leaving the EU' money?
UKIP's new pledge to spend an extra £3bn a year is an about turn for Nigel Farage. Gone was his message that ring-fencing NHS spending after the general election is "ridiculous", replaced instead by support for what George Osborne has already promised, and then some.
This will please UKIP MP Douglas Carswell, who has said the party must pledge to spend more. It seems he's won the battle with the leader - and former policy chief Tim Aker - who both made it clear that cuts to NHS spending were not off the table.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30972569
One of the major weapons a country has, in managing its economy, is the ability to adjust the value of its currency, and adjust interest rates.
With the advent of the Euro, that has gone. Spain and Greece have the same currency and interest rate as France and Germany. That might be good for Germany - not so much so for Spain and Greece.
The Euro is a political construct, with no realistic economic component.
Fifa president Sepp Blatter has accused Uefa of lacking the "courage" to challenge his leadership.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30976812
25/01/2015 17:00
Pros of defection: headache for UKIP
Cons of defection: he's a loony and has to be barricaded inside his house with a Tory press officer
Rod Crosby lies over the sea,
Rod Crosby lies over the ocean,
O swingback Rod Crosby to me.
Swingback, swingback, O swingback Rod Crosby to me, to me:
Swingback, swingback, O swingback Rod Crosby to me.
150 still very possible. Now 0.13 of a seat away. [Remainder PR]
As I said, I've no idea what's left to count though...
8% left to count, still 0.58% of the PV away from 151.
.09 of a seat away from 150.
'Or an alternative definition is 'spending people's hard-earned taxes on public services for those taxpayers, rather than showering unaccountable bond-market traders with goodies'.
Great,you just need to explain who will lend to you the next time you need money.
Ultimately fracking cannot be compatible with our long-term commitments to cut climate-changing emissions unless full-scale carbon capture and storage technology is rolled out rapidly, which currently looks unlikely," said committee chair Joan Walley MP.....
....Prof Quentin Fisher of the University of Leeds said the committee was putting the "ill-informed views of anti-fracking groups" ahead of evidence-based scientific studies.
"Gas will be a significant part of the UK's energy mix for the foreseeable future and it is preferable that we are as self-sufficient as possible," he said.
"Hopefully, MPs will reject the findings of this report and allow UK citizens to receive the economic and social benefits that shale gas extraction could bring."
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30955291
The 4th and 5th largest remainders are:-
To Potami, 0.523
Syriza, 0.382
If Syriza overtakes To Potami's remainder, they're on 150 [although it could still cross back, of course]
The crucial figures are 0.58% and 0.11 of a seat, for 151 and 150 repectively...
The euro has fallen sharply against the dollar after the anti-austerity Syriza party won the Greek general election.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30977714?ocid=socialflow_twitter
0.57% for 151
0.08 of a seat for 150
0.55%
Labour's former Europe minister Peter Hain compared the measures imposed on the Greeks to the restrictions placed upon Germany after the First World War.
On Twitter he said: "Fantastic Syriza win: austerity does not work for Greece, for Tory/Lib Dem UK, nor for EU; we all need investment in growth not savage cuts."
Earlier, on BBC1's Andrew Marr Show, he said: "I think this will be a big kick to the orthodoxy, the austerity gripping the European Union and, indeed, most of the world including Britain."
Look forward to the two Ed's enthusiastic endorsement.......
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-2926102/Cameron-warning-Syriza-win.html#ixzz3PsuRShGi
http://www.x-rates.com/graph/?from=EUR&to=GBP
Labour could cut the number of hospital beds under its plans to merge health and social care, Andy Burnham has hinted.
The shadow health secretary was accused of "rank hypocrisy" after comments emerged indicating that cutting beds would help pay for his policy, which could even result in hospital closures.
The Sun on Sunday reported that Mr Burnham insisted treating the separate health and social care budgets as one would deliver much better results.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-2925136/Labour-cut-hospital-beds.html#ixzz3PsvRULO3
To Potami, 0.519
Syriza, 0.497
0.04
0.56%
But having said that, the late-night crew may answer something the evening shift could not.
So, my question is this: "what were the betting odds on the night before the 2010 UK general election?"
I've tried everywhere, but with no success. So if anybody has a clue, I'd be grateful
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/05/page/18/
However, this is neither here nor there. Unfortunately, I need the exact odds...:-(
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/may/05/election-betting-record