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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the Bashir move from UKIP to CON Marf gives her view

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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Everything has been blown wide open by the Greek result and the resulting turmoil will have many unpredictable turns for the European Union and the domestic UK politics when those on the left will seek to go further left and possibly split the left vote and the right increase the argument over Brexit.

    As I've said before, they'll agree on some messy compromise that doesn't please anybody, but will just about keep the ship afloat in the short term. Once the global economy turns down at the start of October, that will really be the green light for the implosion of the euro area. In the short term, the USD looks to me as though its reaching an important interim top, and will need to correct for a while before resuming its upward rise....which should give a bit of short term grace to the Euro area, but we shall see:

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/24/the-euro-the-waterfall-projection-judgment-day/
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    maaarsh said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Syriza edging up a bit.

    Now over 36% with 60% counted. 149 seats forecast....

    Is there any read on the late to report areas - are we expecting a continued drift this way or are they just having a good spell?
    Late reporting areas tend to have Syriza leading, the ones close to finishing are more ND.

    http://ekloges.ypes.gr/current/v/public/index.html?lang=en#{"cls":"eps","params":{}}

    eg the huge Athens B seat is only 50% counted, is currently 38-25 Syriza-ND.
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391

    Looking at the politics rather than the economics (since the EU could afford pretty much any Greek deal purely in fiscal terms): generally, the EU has a strong bias to compromise and splitting the difference, even with very awkward types like the PM of Hungary (widely seen as pro-Russian, reactionary and authoritarian, all at once). On the other hand, they won't want to encourage lots of anti-austerity rebellions int Italy, Spain etc. Tspiras in turn needs to deliver something concrete, but he's not really drawn that many red lines. I'd guess that a prolonged haggle and a fudge still remains the most likely outcome, unlikely though it may seem in these exciting days.

    Well, with any luck it's clunkingly obvious fudge with continued austerity; clearly the Greeks need a little longer to realise the only way out.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    It does seem to be drifting a little from ND to Syriza.

    About 0.15% swing over the past hour or so...
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    I went to WHL yesterday (with three young(ish) ladies who may have made me look vaguely pimpish) and thought Leicester played really well. They didn't have much possession but turned almost all of it into attacks; spurs had tons of possession but turned virtually none of it into attacks.

    All they do is pass it around the back for about an hour of the game and often get less out of their vast possession than their opponents get out of their 25 minutes or so on the ball. They need to press far harder when they've got the ball and start passing forwards, rather than looking for the safest pass all the time just to keep the ball.

    I don't remember Poch being so negative at saints, though I have noticed that Koeman is an improvement on him in that department, surely he can't be telling them to play so defensively?

    They didn't play too defensively against us!
    No! I got to go to that game too, my nephew (spurs fan) was ill so my dad (big spurs fan, from glossop and his first ever game was man city 6 spurs 2 the season after spurs' double so he's long used to the agony of supporting them) took me instead.

    The atmosphere at 4-1 was the best I've ever known there. None of the fans were abusing their own players. WHL was totally happy. I was happy, and could kind of share something with spurs that day, because saints beat arsenal just before the spurs game :)
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    FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801

    FalseFlag said:

    Socrates said:

    FalseFlag said:

    rcs1000 said:



    That doesn't mean that Euro exit is not still the best long-term option for Greece, but the short term pain would be enormous.

    Five years ago I said here that Greece has a third world level of wealth creation but a belief that it deserves a first world level of wealth consumption.

    It seems that the resolution of this imbalance is about to happen.

    Either the EU gives in and funds economically unjustifiable living standards in Greece or Greek living standards change from being comparable to Italy's to being comparable to Turkey's.
    Greece has an estimated average IQ of 92. Well below Russia, a bit above Mexico.
    What was the IQ of the Irish 50-100 years ago?
    Richard Lynn has estimated the Irish IQ at 95.

    How many Irish and Greek Nobel prize winners can you name?
    Heaney, Yeats & Shaw for 3 (with Joyce a stand-out omission).

    In the sciences?
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,212

    For R Tyndall


    Still insulting people. hardly surprising really , its your stock in trade/. Are you related to Malcolm G or the BNP nutter>???

    we all know who the nutter is root vegetable
  • Options
    hunchman said:

    Everything has been blown wide open by the Greek result and the resulting turmoil will have many unpredictable turns for the European Union and the domestic UK politics when those on the left will seek to go further left and possibly split the left vote and the right increase the argument over Brexit.

    As I've said before, they'll agree on some messy compromise that doesn't please anybody, but will just about keep the ship afloat in the short term. Once the global economy turns down at the start of October, that will really be the green light for the implosion of the euro area. In the short term, the USD looks to me as though its reaching an important interim top, and will need to correct for a while before resuming its upward rise....which should give a bit of short term grace to the Euro area, but we shall see:

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/24/the-euro-the-waterfall-projection-judgment-day/
    How would you describe the consequences of the implosion of the euro area in October if that were to happen. In particular how would you see it for the UK
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,089

    FalseFlag said:

    Socrates said:

    FalseFlag said:

    rcs1000 said:



    That doesn't mean that Euro exit is not still the best long-term option for Greece, but the short term pain would be enormous.

    Five years ago I said here that Greece has a third world level of wealth creation but a belief that it deserves a first world level of wealth consumption.

    It seems that the resolution of this imbalance is about to happen.

    Either the EU gives in and funds economically unjustifiable living standards in Greece or Greek living standards change from being comparable to Italy's to being comparable to Turkey's.
    Greece has an estimated average IQ of 92. Well below Russia, a bit above Mexico.
    What was the IQ of the Irish 50-100 years ago?
    Richard Lynn has estimated the Irish IQ at 95.

    How many Irish and Greek Nobel prize winners can you name?
    Heaney, Yeats & Shaw for 3 (with Joyce a stand-out omission).

    I had to check (my memory was in fact wrong and John Joly was not one) but there are 8 altogether, the others being

    Samuel Beckett
    John Hume
    Seán MacBride
    Mairead Maguire
    Ernest Walton
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    If they do now spend months negotiating, that will presumably be long enough to turn Tspiras native. If he's lucky they won't make him fly home from Germany with a piece of paper to present to a grateful country.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RodCrosby said:

    It does seem to be drifting a little from ND to Syriza.

    About 0.15% swing over the past hour or so...

    And as I write that the trend starts to reverse!
  • Options

    I went to WHL yesterday (with three young(ish) ladies who may have made me look vaguely pimpish) and thought Leicester played really well. They didn't have much possession but turned almost all of it into attacks; spurs had tons of possession but turned virtually none of it into attacks.

    All they do is pass it around the back for about an hour of the game and often get less out of their vast possession than their opponents get out of their 25 minutes or so on the ball. They need to press far harder when they've got the ball and start passing forwards, rather than looking for the safest pass all the time just to keep the ball.

    I don't remember Poch being so negative at saints, though I have noticed that Koeman is an improvement on him in that department, surely he can't be telling them to play so defensively?

    They didn't play too defensively against us!
    No! I got to go to that game too, my nephew (spurs fan) was ill so my dad (big spurs fan, from glossop and his first ever game was man city 6 spurs 2 the season after spurs' double so he's long used to the agony of supporting them) took me instead.

    The atmosphere at 4-1 was the best I've ever known there. None of the fans were abusing their own players. WHL was totally happy. I was happy, and could kind of share something with spurs that day, because saints beat arsenal just before the spurs game :)
    My first game at Stamford Bridge was on Good Friday 1963, 2-0 against Bury in the old Second Division. Yesterday's result was like the good old days for me but not so good for all the tourists we have attracted since 2004.
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    For R Tyndall


    Still insulting people. hardly surprising really , its your stock in trade/. Are you related to Malcolm G or the BNP nutter>???

    Pointing out someones blind ignorance - particularly when it is driven by stupidly mmisplaced fanatical belief in a political party - is not insulting them, it is doing them, and the rest of society, a service. Of course that is not popular with the ignorant. Perhaps had the name not already been taken I would have called myself Socrates. Of course unlike you I don't need to hide behind a pseudonym.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    hunchman said:

    Everything has been blown wide open by the Greek result and the resulting turmoil will have many unpredictable turns for the European Union and the domestic UK politics when those on the left will seek to go further left and possibly split the left vote and the right increase the argument over Brexit.

    As I've said before, they'll agree on some messy compromise that doesn't please anybody, but will just about keep the ship afloat in the short term. Once the global economy turns down at the start of October, that will really be the green light for the implosion of the euro area. In the short term, the USD looks to me as though its reaching an important interim top, and will need to correct for a while before resuming its upward rise....which should give a bit of short term grace to the Euro area, but we shall see:

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/24/the-euro-the-waterfall-projection-judgment-day/
    How would you describe the consequences of the implosion of the euro area in October if that were to happen. In particular how would you see it for the UK
    I wasn't saying it will all happen in October, but October will I think be seen as the start of the implosion. Once the bond market peaks and global interest rates start RISING, its only a matter of time before investors at some point lose confidence in Gilts - I suspect that all of the outer core of the Eurozone is first (Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy) before the contagion hits us, but hit us it will at some point, probably in 2016 next year though.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,229
    maaarsh said:

    If they do now spend months negotiating, that will presumably be long enough to turn Tspiras native. If he's lucky they won't make him fly home from Germany with a piece of paper to present to a grateful country.

    'Turn native'; I think you don't realise what a difficult situation he (and Greece) is in. Every outcome is shit; the question is which is least shit.

    Default, and see a sudden dramatic fall in the real value of wages and pensions, and the destruction of the banks (and with them, people's savings). But almost certainly start to grow again.

    Or struggle through, under the control of the IMF, with relentlessly high (albeit slowly declining) unemployment.

    Economic reality says that money in has to equal money out, and that debts must be paid back or renegotiated.

    Nothing Tsiparas - or anyone else does - can change that.
  • Options
    FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Carnyx said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Socrates said:

    FalseFlag said:

    rcs1000 said:



    That doesn't mean that Euro exit is not still the best long-term option for Greece, but the short term pain would be enormous.

    Five years ago I said here that Greece has a third world level of wealth creation but a belief that it deserves a first world level of wealth consumption.

    It seems that the resolution of this imbalance is about to happen.

    Either the EU gives in and funds economically unjustifiable living standards in Greece or Greek living standards change from being comparable to Italy's to being comparable to Turkey's.
    Greece has an estimated average IQ of 92. Well below Russia, a bit above Mexico.
    What was the IQ of the Irish 50-100 years ago?
    Richard Lynn has estimated the Irish IQ at 95.

    How many Irish and Greek Nobel prize winners can you name?
    Heaney, Yeats & Shaw for 3 (with Joyce a stand-out omission).

    I had to check (my memory was in fact wrong and John Joly was not one) but there are 8 altogether, the others being

    Samuel Beckett
    John Hume
    Seán MacBride
    Mairead Maguire
    Ernest Walton
    Ernest Watson, the only science Nobel winner, was Anglo-Irish.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Another piece of Americana for you -

    I don't follow either college or pro basketball at all, but this one is very special. Coach Mike Krzyzewski, known for obvious reasons as Coach K, coach of the Duke Blue Devils since 1980, today won his 1,000th game, against St Johns at Madison Square Garden. He has been the winningest coach in Division 1 history for a while, but to make the 1,000 win mark is something special, particularly in the current "one and done" era of college basketball. Almost everyone I know - mostly non-basketball fans - watched this game and we all texted some variation of "coach K 1k" to each other at the end. He is a class act from start to finish.

    And what did the team do after the game, having donned their "1000 and Kounting" shirts? They hugged his wife Mickie and then Coach K.

    - and he still doesn't have a single gay hair.

    How do you pronounce his name? Just the way it's spelled.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    For R Tyndall


    Still insulting people. hardly surprising really , its your stock in trade/. Are you related to Malcolm G or the BNP nutter>???

    Physician heal yourself.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,229
    @hunchman

    The biggest economic story of 2015 won't be the Eurozone or Greece. It will be the wave of defaults in Latin America as low commodity prices decimate the economies of Venezuela, Ecuador, Colombia, Peru, Chile and potentially even Brazil and Mexico.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,814
    Excellent posts by rcs on here tonight.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,814

    Will Syriza form a coalition with Pasok if they're only a handful short?

    More likely KKE, the Communist Party of Greece who are set to win 15 seats I would have thought.

    To quote Wikipedia "KKE actively participated in the anti-austerity protests beginning in 2010."
    Thanks Paul. Will be interesting to see what happens.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    FalseFlag said:

    Carnyx said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Socrates said:

    FalseFlag said:

    rcs1000 said:



    That doesn't mean that Euro exit is not still the best long-term option for Greece, but the short term pain would be enormous.

    Five years ago I said here that Greece has a third world level of wealth creation but a belief that it deserves a first world level of wealth consumption.

    It seems that the resolution of this imbalance is about to happen.

    Either the EU gives in and funds economically unjustifiable living standards in Greece or Greek living standards change from being comparable to Italy's to being comparable to Turkey's.
    Greece has an estimated average IQ of 92. Well below Russia, a bit above Mexico.
    What was the IQ of the Irish 50-100 years ago?
    Richard Lynn has estimated the Irish IQ at 95.

    How many Irish and Greek Nobel prize winners can you name?
    Heaney, Yeats & Shaw for 3 (with Joyce a stand-out omission).

    I had to check (my memory was in fact wrong and John Joly was not one) but there are 8 altogether, the others being

    Samuel Beckett
    John Hume
    Seán MacBride
    Mairead Maguire
    Ernest Walton
    Ernest Watson, the only science Nobel winner, was Anglo-Irish.
    Marconi was half-Irish.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    According to Bloomberg, the Greek PM has conceded defeat.
  • Options
    hunchman said:

    hunchman said:

    Everything has been blown wide open by the Greek result and the resulting turmoil will have many unpredictable turns for the European Union and the domestic UK politics when those on the left will seek to go further left and possibly split the left vote and the right increase the argument over Brexit.

    As I've said before, they'll agree on some messy compromise that doesn't please anybody, but will just about keep the ship afloat in the short term. Once the global economy turns down at the start of October, that will really be the green light for the implosion of the euro area. In the short term, the USD looks to me as though its reaching an important interim top, and will need to correct for a while before resuming its upward rise....which should give a bit of short term grace to the Euro area, but we shall see:

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/24/the-euro-the-waterfall-projection-judgment-day/
    How would you describe the consequences of the implosion of the euro area in October if that were to happen. In particular how would you see it for the UK
    I wasn't saying it will all happen in October, but October will I think be seen as the start of the implosion. Once the bond market peaks and global interest rates start RISING, its only a matter of time before investors at some point lose confidence in Gilts - I suspect that all of the outer core of the Eurozone is first (Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy) before the contagion hits us, but hit us it will at some point, probably in 2016 next year though.
    Thank you for your reply. In the circumstances you outline would this result in meltdown in the EU and elsewhere and how would the UK mitigate it
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,814
    rcs1000 said:

    @hunchman

    The biggest economic story of 2015 won't be the Eurozone or Greece. It will be the wave of defaults in Latin America as low commodity prices decimate the economies of Venezuela, Ecuador, Colombia, Peru, Chile and potentially even Brazil and Mexico.

    Together with Russia and Greece, it certainly puts our own economic 'problems' into perspective.

    From a very cynical perspective, the Conservatives could make some electoral hay by striking a few comparisons with that.
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    rcs1000 said:

    maaarsh said:

    If they do now spend months negotiating, that will presumably be long enough to turn Tspiras native. If he's lucky they won't make him fly home from Germany with a piece of paper to present to a grateful country.

    'Turn native'; I think you don't realise what a difficult situation he (and Greece) is in. Every outcome is shit; the question is which is least shit.

    Default, and see a sudden dramatic fall in the real value of wages and pensions, and the destruction of the banks (and with them, people's savings). But almost certainly start to grow again.

    Or struggle through, under the control of the IMF, with relentlessly high (albeit slowly declining) unemployment.

    Economic reality says that money in has to equal money out, and that debts must be paid back or renegotiated.

    Nothing Tsiparas - or anyone else does - can change that.
    We're quite a long way past the position in which it is in their best interests to trudge on repaying impossible debts with a comically over-valued currency. Both he and the Greek people are as yet unwilling to even consider the real alternatives, so they've gone for a load of bluster about ending austerity whilst ruling out the only plausible way to make that a viable option somewhere down the line.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    rcs1000 said:

    @hunchman

    The biggest economic story of 2015 won't be the Eurozone or Greece. It will be the wave of defaults in Latin America as low commodity prices decimate the economies of Venezuela, Ecuador, Colombia, Peru, Chile and potentially even Brazil and Mexico.

    I agree they're looking in serious trouble, and a lot of their debt is in the rising US Dollar, which is a particularly toxic combination. Will be fascinated to see the economic data coming out of Poland in the coming months too - the Swiss Franc (CHF) blowout is going to put a lot of pressure on their CHF mortgage holders, as well as other Eastern European countries.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Peter Hain ‏@PeterHain 3m3 minutes ago
    Fantastic Syriza win: austerity does not work for Greece, for Tory/Lib Dem UK, nor for EU; we all need investment in growth not savage cuts
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    Sean_F said:

    For R Tyndall


    Still insulting people. hardly surprising really , its your stock in trade/. Are you related to Malcolm G or the BNP nutter>???

    Physician heal yourself.
    lol :-)
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Tim_B said:

    According to Bloomberg, the Greek PM has conceded defeat.

    He just woke up from a nap and heard he had lost !
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,814
    rcs1000 said:

    maaarsh said:

    If they do now spend months negotiating, that will presumably be long enough to turn Tspiras native. If he's lucky they won't make him fly home from Germany with a piece of paper to present to a grateful country.

    'Turn native'; I think you don't realise what a difficult situation he (and Greece) is in. Every outcome is shit; the question is which is least shit.

    Default, and see a sudden dramatic fall in the real value of wages and pensions, and the destruction of the banks (and with them, people's savings). But almost certainly start to grow again.

    Or struggle through, under the control of the IMF, with relentlessly high (albeit slowly declining) unemployment.

    Economic reality says that money in has to equal money out, and that debts must be paid back or renegotiated.

    Nothing Tsiparas - or anyone else does - can change that.
    Trying to think like a Leftist here, isn't there a "Hell, no. We won't pay!" option?

    Greece negotiates, but doesn't get the deal it wants (i.e. a write-off of a major part of it) and just refuses to pay the IMF money.

    I can immediately think of several major repercussions of that, not least of which would be immense difficultly in the Greek government getting any future credit of any kind, but I'd be interested to know your views of the consequences.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    hunchman said:

    hunchman said:

    Everything has been blown wide open by the Greek result and the resulting turmoil will have many unpredictable turns for the European Union and the domestic UK politics when those on the left will seek to go further left and possibly split the left vote and the right increase the argument over Brexit.

    As I've said before, they'll agree on some messy compromise that doesn't please anybody, but will just about keep the ship afloat in the short term. Once the global economy turns down at the start of October, that will really be the green light for the implosion of the euro area. In the short term, the USD looks to me as though its reaching an important interim top, and will need to correct for a while before resuming its upward rise....which should give a bit of short term grace to the Euro area, but we shall see:

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/24/the-euro-the-waterfall-projection-judgment-day/
    How would you describe the consequences of the implosion of the euro area in October if that were to happen. In particular how would you see it for the UK
    I wasn't saying it will all happen in October, but October will I think be seen as the start of the implosion. Once the bond market peaks and global interest rates start RISING, its only a matter of time before investors at some point lose confidence in Gilts - I suspect that all of the outer core of the Eurozone is first (Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy) before the contagion hits us, but hit us it will at some point, probably in 2016 next year though.
    Thank you for your reply. In the circumstances you outline would this result in meltdown in the EU and elsewhere and how would the UK mitigate it
    We have had hunchman's forecasts of doom , gloom and disaster on here many times before . If he ever backed his forecasts with hard cash he would be sitting on the pavement outside the Ritz with a begging bowl .
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited January 2015
    dr_spyn said:

    Peter Hain ‏@PeterHain 3m3 minutes ago
    Fantastic Syriza win: austerity does not work for Greece, for Tory/Lib Dem UK, nor for EU; we all need investment in growth not savage cuts

    He's a clueless tool. Hain should stick to digging up cricket pitches.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,551
    Last time I was on here - last night, in the midst of feeding the baby - there was talk of some big story in the Sun about the zNHS which wasn't being included in any of the paper round-ups while the lawyers checked it. Did anything become of it?
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    Sunday night chart time - The youth vote... Three parties within 7 points

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/559309511518081025
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Cookie said:

    Last time I was on here - last night, in the midst of feeding the baby - there was talk of some big story in the Sun about the zNHS which wasn't being included in any of the paper round-ups while the lawyers checked it. Did anything become of it?

    Labour intends to slash the number of beds and possibly close hospitals.

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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    I went to WHL yesterday (with three young(ish) ladies who may have made me look vaguely pimpish) and thought Leicester played really well. They didn't have much possession but turned almost all of it into attacks; spurs had tons of possession but turned virtually none of it into attacks.

    All they do is pass it around the back for about an hour of the game and often get less out of their vast possession than their opponents get out of their 25 minutes or so on the ball. They need to press far harder when they've got the ball and start passing forwards, rather than looking for the safest pass all the time just to keep the ball.

    I don't remember Poch being so negative at saints, though I have noticed that Koeman is an improvement on him in that department, surely he can't be telling them to play so defensively?

    They didn't play too defensively against us!
    No! I got to go to that game too, my nephew (spurs fan) was ill so my dad (big spurs fan, from glossop and his first ever game was man city 6 spurs 2 the season after spurs' double so he's long used to the agony of supporting them) took me instead.

    The atmosphere at 4-1 was the best I've ever known there. None of the fans were abusing their own players. WHL was totally happy. I was happy, and could kind of share something with spurs that day, because saints beat arsenal just before the spurs game :)
    My first game at Stamford Bridge was on Good Friday 1963, 2-0 against Bury in the old Second Division. Yesterday's result was like the good old days for me but not so good for all the tourists we have attracted since 2004.
    My first game was Borussia Monchengladbach against someone else. I can't remember who because I was 5 or 6, at the time when my dad was posted to Germany by the RAF, and I can recall the atmosphere and the fact the BM won, but have no idea who they played. At that age I was naive and a Liverpool fan; I grew into my home town support for Southampton as a teenager.

    Kenny Dalglish is still my favourite ever player, and I enjoyed his brief time as Liverpool manager, then his win with Blackburn, but haven't enjoyed his time at Newcastle or back at Liverpool so much.

    I loved seeing saints come back from the depths five years ago, though getting there was painful, enjoyed last season under Poch, and though gutted when he left I think we may now have the best manager in the league.

    To think I hated RonKo for years after he unfairly kept us out of the World Cup, now I unashamedly profess man-love for him. And I really think my 12/1 top 4 bet might come in. With no cup games or european distractions we can focus on the league games; our sparse squad may be big enough to last another 16 games evenly spaced
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    glwglw Posts: 9,556
    dr_spyn said:

    Peter Hain ‏@PeterHain 3m3 minutes ago
    Fantastic Syriza win: austerity does not work for Greece, for Tory/Lib Dem UK, nor for EU; we all need investment in growth not savage cuts

    Thank God that Labour are no longer in power, and let us pray that that does not change.
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    Tim_B said:


    - and he still doesn't have a single gay hair.

    Phew, we couldn't have gay hairs spoiling such an occasion.

  • Options


    I don't remember Poch being so negative at saints, though I have noticed that Koeman is an improvement on him in that department, surely he can't be telling them to play so defensively?

    They didn't play too defensively against us!

    No! I got to go to that game too, my nephew (spurs fan) was ill so my dad (big spurs fan, from glossop and his first ever game was man city 6 spurs 2 the season after spurs' double so he's long used to the agony of supporting them) took me instead.

    The atmosphere at 4-1 was the best I've ever known there. None of the fans were abusing their own players. WHL was totally happy. I was happy, and could kind of share something with spurs that day, because saints beat arsenal just before the spurs game :)

    My first game at Stamford Bridge was on Good Friday 1963, 2-0 against Bury in the old Second Division. Yesterday's result was like the good old days for me but not so good for all the tourists we have attracted since 2004.

    My first game was Borussia Monchengladbach against someone else. I can't remember who because I was 5 or 6, at the time when my dad was posted to Germany by the RAF, and I can recall the atmosphere and the fact the BM won, but have no idea who they played. At that age I was naive and a Liverpool fan; I grew into my home town support for Southampton as a teenager.

    Kenny Dalglish is still my favourite ever player, and I enjoyed his brief time as Liverpool manager, then his win with Blackburn, but haven't enjoyed his time at Newcastle or back at Liverpool so much.

    I loved seeing saints come back from the depths five years ago, though getting there was painful, enjoyed last season under Poch, and though gutted when he left I think we may now have the best manager in the league.

    To think I hated RonKo for years after he unfairly kept us out of the World Cup, now I unashamedly profess man-love for him. And I really think my 12/1 top 4 bet might come in. With no cup games or european distractions we can focus on the league games; our sparse squad may be big enough to last another 16 games evenly spaced

    If your top 4 bet comes in then my Koeman top manager bet at 8/1 should also win, so good luck!

    I'm hoping my Utd top 4 bet loses!
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,814
    glw said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Peter Hain ‏@PeterHain 3m3 minutes ago
    Fantastic Syriza win: austerity does not work for Greece, for Tory/Lib Dem UK, nor for EU; we all need investment in growth not savage cuts

    Thank God that Labour are no longer in power, and let us pray that that does not change.
    Hain is standing down in May. But that doesn't seem to stop him being all over the airwaves arguing for socialism.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    hunchman said:

    hunchman said:

    Everything has been blown wide open by the Greek result and the resulting turmoil will have many unpredictable turns for the European Union and the domestic UK politics when those on the left will seek to go further left and possibly split the left vote and the right increase the argument over Brexit.

    As I've said before, they'll agree on some messy compromise that doesn't please anybody, but will just about keep the ship afloat in the short term. Once the global economy turns down at the start of October, that will really be the green light for the implosion of the euro area. In the short term, the USD looks to me as though its reaching an important interim top, and will need to correct for a while before resuming its upward rise....which should give a bit of short term grace to the Euro area, but we shall see:

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/24/the-euro-the-waterfall-projection-judgment-day/
    How would you describe the consequences of the implosion of the euro area in October if that were to happen. In particular how would you see it for the UK
    I wasn't though.
    Thank you for your reply. In the circumstances you outline would this result in meltdown in the EU and elsewhere and how would the UK mitigate it
    We have had hunchman's forecasts of doom , gloom and disaster on here many times before . If he ever backed his forecasts with hard cash he would be sitting on the pavement outside the Ritz with a begging bowl .
    Total and utter garbage as is the norm from you Mr Senior. Yes I've made some poor forecasts like everyone else has at some stage or other, notably expecting a stockmarket crash that didn't materialise. But I've had a lot of successes too - how many other people on here were forecasting interest rates to remain on the floor since 2009, predicting US Dollar strength which is now materialising in spades, as well as calling the top in Gold practically to the day back in 2011 - I hope to be similarly successful in calling the low in gold later on this year. Also I've been consistently on the side of deflation which has been the right call as well, so I think I have called a lot more things right than you have. Your forecasts on the Lib Dems have hardly materialised over the past 5 years have they? - talk about the pot calling the kettle black!
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MP_SE said:

    BBC is reporting that "Downing Street to review security procedures after hoax caller put through to Prime Minister David Cameron, Number 10 says"

    Defection?

    Someone impersonating Mark "Fat Arse" Reckless wanting to defect back again would be hilarious.
    That's me convinced.

    I think you *are* Mark Reckless ;)
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    here's something we can all enjoy... Al Campbell retweeting dross like this...

    Alastair Campbell retweeted
    Harry Leslie Smith‏@Harryslaststand·8 hrs8 hours ago
    You have to vote in May's General Election so that you can tell your children & grandchildren you helped #FinishTheTories for their sake

  • Options

    here's something we can all enjoy... Al Campbell retweeting dross like this...

    Alastair Campbell retweeted
    Harry Leslie Smith‏@Harryslaststand·8 hrs8 hours ago
    You have to vote in May's General Election so that you can tell your children & grandchildren you helped #FinishTheTories for their sake

    Hope to God that Chilcot nails that horrible bastard.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    dr_spyn said:

    Amused by this graphic on a tweet. A Spanish TV station's graphic.

    Kate Shea Baird ‏@KateSB 15m15 minutes ago
    It's almost as if @telecincoes in Spain wants to minimise scale of Syriza's victory via @angelandresvm #ekloges2015

    Google the text for the graphic.

    That's positively LibDemish!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    dr_spyn said:

    Peter Hain ‏@PeterHain 3m3 minutes ago
    Fantastic Syriza win: austerity does not work for Greece, for Tory/Lib Dem UK, nor for EU; we all need investment in growth not savage cuts

    Would he have been singing the same tune if Labour had been in power for the last 5 years I wonder? I doubt it, given they would have implemented many many cuts too, and he'd need to explain why Labour were still better than the Tories (while Labour are not in power, he can ignore the official position on cuts as Labour's actions remain hypothetical, if obvious)
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited January 2015
    75% in, in Greece.

    Syriza still on 149...
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    rcs1000 said:

    Socrates said:

    Nigel Farage: "An extra £3bn a year for the NHS, funded out of the fact that we will not be paying daily membership fees to the European Union"


    ...

    ....
    ...
    ...
    Another of Flightpath's perennial myths - the idea that EEA members have no say over the rules. As I pointed out several weeks ago this is rubbish.

    Oh and copying the figures I used earlier to pretend you know something about our EU contributions really doesn't disprove the fact that you are commenting on a subject about which you are utterly ignorant.
    I would not dream of copying figures from you.
    How many MEPs does Norway have
    How many commissioners does it have?
    How many votes does it have?
    ...
    Still showing your ignorance. Quoting numbers of MEPs just shows how ,little you know. Go read about the EFTA/EU agreement which outlines how any and all regulations which effect EFTA countries are instigated and produced with the full involvement of EFTA countries.

    We lose nothing by leaving the EU - whether we join EFTA or not afterwards. It is only the sad ignorant Europhiles like yourself who still rely on these ludicrous scare stories.
    So thats no MEPs and no commissioners then.
    It stands to reason the an agreement between Norway and the EU actually has terms to that agreement. Within that agreement is free movement of labour membership of Schengen and obeying the rules of the EU single market. Norway obeys the EU working time directive. It seems unlikely to me that any independent UK 'free trade agreement' with the EU would not involve things like the working time directive and any attempt to change that directive would be extremely unlikely from outside the EU.
    The end result is that if we are in the EEA then it might well be best for the UK nince we are not in the Euro. But it will not make much difference to single market issues.
    Its actually because we are not in the Euro that we need to renegotiate with the EU. I welcome a referendum on that. And whatever the nation votes it will have to live with.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087

    here's something we can all enjoy... Al Campbell retweeting dross like this...

    Alastair Campbell retweeted
    Harry Leslie Smith‏@Harryslaststand·8 hrs8 hours ago
    You have to vote in May's General Election so that you can tell your children & grandchildren you helped #FinishTheTories for their sake

    Why would anyone get so worked up over their hatred of another party that they'd want to spoonfeed it to their kids like that. I can never understand why people still get so worked up about how they stood against or for Thatcher - I have no idea what it was really like back then, so I'm not really impressed by your stance either way, and you can bet the next generation won't care who finished off the forgettable Cameroons either.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    maaarsh said:

    If they do now spend months negotiating, that will presumably be long enough to turn Tspiras native. If he's lucky they won't make him fly home from Germany with a piece of paper to present to a grateful country.

    'Turn native'; I think you don't realise what a difficult situation he (and Greece) is in. Every outcome is shit; the question is which is least shit.

    Default, and see a sudden dramatic fall in the real value of wages and pensions, and the destruction of the banks (and with them, people's savings). But almost certainly start to grow again.

    Or struggle through, under the control of the IMF, with relentlessly high (albeit slowly declining) unemployment.

    Economic reality says that money in has to equal money out, and that debts must be paid back or renegotiated.

    Nothing Tsiparas - or anyone else does - can change that.
    You missed one option: you do a controlled/negotiated Grexit (presumably with capital controls, pre-printing of currency, and a forced conversion of euro denominated debt into drachma at the official exchange rate).

    And then you default...
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited January 2015
    Dimbo on Sky thinks there's 95% turnout...
  • Options
    Syriza is what happens when voters no longer feel that they have any stake in society. Today and tomorrow will probably be as good as it gets for the party, but for a moment the Greeks get to stick their two fingers up at the world. We will see more results like this over the coming months and years - perhaps in Spain next, with Podemos. And if living standards in the UK fail to improve for most people over a sustained period eventually it will happen here too. Syriza represents not only the collective failure of mainstream Greek political parties, but also of Europe's elite - sheltered as they are from the consequences of the decisions they take. It remains a fact that there has never been more wealth in Europe. The problem is that it is so poorly distributed. And in the end, that will come back to bite the wealth accumulators.
  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    hunchman said:

    hunchman said:

    Everything has been blown wide open by the Greek result and the resulting turmoil will have many unpredictable turns for the European Union and the domestic UK politics when those on the left will seek to go further left and possibly split the left vote and the right increase the argument over Brexit.

    As I've:

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/24/the-euro-the-waterfall-projection-judgment-day/
    How would you describe the consequences of the implosion of the euro area in October if that were to happen. In particular how would you see it for the UK
    I wasn't saying it will all happen in October, but October will I think be seen as the start of the implosion. Once the bond market peaks and global interest rates start RISING, its only a matter of time before investors at some point lose confidence in Gilts - I suspect that all of the outer core of the Eurozone is first (Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy) before the contagion hits us, but hit us it will at some point, probably in 2016 next year though.
    Thank you for your reply. In the circumstances you outline would this result in meltdown in the EU and elsewhere and how would the UK mitigate it
    Absolutely. There's no avoiding this in my opinion - we have civil unrest and war cycles coming together that both combined in the 1770's that led to the French and American revolutions. The current global financial order is incapable of managing an orderly reduction of debt, and the demographics are a huge ampliying factor too. The system that we live in is simply too far stretched... and the global sovereign bond crisis that starts in earnest at the end of this year will lay waste to a great deal of things that we simply take for granted today. And that in my opinion will happen irrespective of the election result in 102 days time. Whilst I'm following the opinion polls very closely, I will not be following the detail of all the promises made in the campaign - in my opinion when we look back in January 2020, when the cycles say that things will improve again, a tick list of promises met over the time between now and May 7th will be in very short supply indeed.
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    kle4 said:

    here's something we can all enjoy... Al Campbell retweeting dross like this...

    Alastair Campbell retweeted
    Harry Leslie Smith‏@Harryslaststand·8 hrs8 hours ago
    You have to vote in May's General Election so that you can tell your children & grandchildren you helped #FinishTheTories for their sake

    Why would anyone get so worked up over their hatred of another party that they'd want to spoonfeed it to their kids like that. I can never understand why people still get so worked up about how they stood against or for Thatcher - I have no idea what it was really like back then, so I'm not really impressed by your stance either way, and you can bet the next generation won't care who finished off the forgettable Cameroons either.
    I have had relatives refuse to speak to each other for years over Thatcher. There is some real hatred of her in the North.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    A remarkable few years for Tsipras. I wonder if he would rather have won several years ago when they ran ND close, or if the wait for this moment, this set of circumstances, made this big win possible.
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    audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    Just catching up after Dragons' Den (brilliant): they're on 149 after 2/3rds counted? Sky say they only need 150 for absolute. Is that correct?
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:


    - and he still doesn't have a single gay hair.

    Phew, we couldn't have gay hairs spoiling such an occasion.

    Oops - obviously that was meant to be 'gray' hair. The dangers of spell check without proofing carefully enough :-(
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Another one comes out of the woodwork.


    Russell Brand, British comedian and campaigner
    Posted at
    tweets: I would vote for Syriza. This is exciting.
  • Options
    audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited January 2015
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    maaarsh said:

    If they do now spend months negotiating, that will presumably be long enough to turn Tspiras native. If he's lucky they won't make him fly home from Germany with a piece of paper to present to a grateful country.

    'Turn native'; I think you don't realise what a difficult situation he (and Greece) is in. Every outcome is shit; the question is which is least shit.

    Default, and see a sudden dramatic fall in the real value of wages and pensions, and the destruction of the banks (and with them, people's savings). But almost certainly start to grow again.

    Or struggle through, under the control of the IMF, with relentlessly high (albeit slowly declining) unemployment.

    Economic reality says that money in has to equal money out, and that debts must be paid back or renegotiated.

    Nothing Tsiparas - or anyone else does - can change that.
    Grexit
    Ha very good! Is that your original? Going to nick it please?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    I find the Greek naivete that Things Can Only Get Better under the hard left to be very touching.

    How will the poor dears react when Mr Market cuts down the Money Tree? And then salts their fields...

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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Uptick for Syriza, again...
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:


    - and he still doesn't have a single gay hair.

    Phew, we couldn't have gay hairs spoiling such an occasion.

    Oops - obviously that was meant to be 'gray' hair. The dangers of spell check without proofing carefully enough :-(
    You need a better poof reader....
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    AndyJS said:
    Brilliant stuff - I look forward to Galloway dishing the dirt. That will be a hoot.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Are there other left-wing parties in Greece who would help carry Syriza over the 150 mark?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    Watching reports on Greece, it comes to something strange when writing off half the debt is regarded as working with Greece, as some might think giving all the money in the first place was part of that. Then again, as a financial fool myself, it always seemed like the 'loans' were going to end up as gifts eventually, in part.
    dr_spyn said:

    Another one comes out of the woodwork.


    Russell Brand, British comedian and campaigner
    Posted at
    tweets: I would vote for Syriza. This is exciting.

    A shocking development. I imagine he would fine the years of work put into Syriza achieving this outcome, of playing the game and waiting for their moment, less exciting than having petulant outbursts about how awful things are and nothing more.
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    audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376

    Excellent posts by rcs on here tonight.

    seconded
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,157
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    maaarsh said:

    If they do now spend months negotiating, that will presumably be long enough to turn Tspiras native. If he's lucky they won't make him fly home from Germany with a piece of paper to present to a grateful country.

    'Turn native'; I think you don't realise what a difficult situation he (and Greece) is in. Every outcome is shit; the question is which is least shit.

    Default, and see a sudden dramatic fall in the real value of wages and pensions, and the destruction of the banks (and with them, people's savings). But almost certainly start to grow again.

    Or struggle through, under the control of the IMF, with relentlessly high (albeit slowly declining) unemployment.

    Economic reality says that money in has to equal money out, and that debts must be paid back or renegotiated.

    Nothing Tsiparas - or anyone else does - can change that.
    You missed one option: you do a controlled/negotiated Grexit (presumably with capital controls, pre-printing of currency, and a forced conversion of euro denominated debt into drachma at the official exchange rate).

    And then you default...
    Why would any business in Greece accept drachma that are obviously designed to drop in value when they could keep in taking hard currency?

    Greece can leave the Euro if it wants to, that won't make the Euro leave Greece.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087

    I find the Greek naivete that Things Can Only Get Better under the hard left to be very touching.

    How will the poor dears react when Mr Market cuts down the Money Tree? And then salts their fields...

    Presumably they will get sick of constant elections at some point if the outcome from their latest effort goes so badly
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    edited January 2015
    Any reaction from Merkel yet? The Empress surely knew the likely outcome, but even so.
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    How on earth do you translate votes to seats in Greece? Wikipedia seems opaque on the subject.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:


    - and he still doesn't have a single gay hair.

    Phew, we couldn't have gay hairs spoiling such an occasion.

    Oops - obviously that was meant to be 'gray' hair. The dangers of spell check without proofing carefully enough :-(
    You need a better poof reader....
    I was fagged out.

    On those same somewhat dubious humorous terms, the governor of Virginia was in hospital, said the CNN crawler the other day, as a result of being tossed by a horse.
  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Syriza is what happens when voters no longer feel that they have any stake in society. Today and tomorrow will probably be as good as it gets for the party, but for a moment the Greeks get to stick their two fingers up at the world. We will see more results like this over the coming months and years - perhaps in Spain next, with Podemos. And if living standards in the UK fail to improve for most people over a sustained period eventually it will happen here too. Syriza represents not only the collective failure of mainstream Greek political parties, but also of Europe's elite - sheltered as they are from the consequences of the decisions they take. It remains a fact that there has never been more wealth in Europe. The problem is that it is so poorly distributed. And in the end, that will come back to bite the wealth accumulators.

    Agreed - its just a shame that Syriza to appear mainstream still wish to remain in the Euro. The fatal design flaw of the euro - not having a single consolidated eurozone debt market, has doomed it to failure from the beginning. The lawyers like Mme Lagarde and Draghi that run the show have never asked themselves whether a single currency without a single debt market has ever worked throughout recorded history. It never has.

    Greece would be so much better off leaving the Euro - finally getting an exchange rate at which its economy can breathe. The sooner it defaults on its debt, gets out of the Euro and builds from scratch the better. That's not to say there won't be short term pain, but there simply is no long term sustainable recovery whilst it remains in the Euro - something Greece will painfully discover over the next 2 years or so. If it remains with the eurozone, then the simmering tensions could easily lead to something much more serious in Greece like a civil war in a few years time.
  • Options
    hunchman said:

    AndyJS said:
    Brilliant stuff - I look forward to Galloway dishing the dirt. That will be a hoot.
    Once again, it's lucky the guy hasn't been in politics with any party for the last 3 years nor in a senior position there as I'm sure the cat would have provided this info sooner
  • Options
    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    kle4 said:

    here's something we can all enjoy... Al Campbell retweeting dross like this...

    Alastair Campbell retweeted
    Harry Leslie Smith‏@Harryslaststand·8 hrs8 hours ago
    You have to vote in May's General Election so that you can tell your children & grandchildren you helped #FinishTheTories for their sake

    Why would anyone get so worked up over their hatred of another party that they'd want to spoonfeed it to their kids like that. I can never understand why people still get so worked up about how they stood against or for Thatcher - I have no idea what it was really like back then, so I'm not really impressed by your stance either way, and you can bet the next generation won't care who finished off the forgettable Cameroons either.
    Campbell will be remembered for a long time, particularly in Iraq.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Chance ND could lose another seat to either GD or Potami...
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    dr_spyn said:

    Another one comes out of the woodwork.


    Russell Brand, British comedian and campaigner
    Posted at
    tweets: I would vote for Syriza. This is exciting.

    Well Russell, go and live in Greece, become Greek and we will both be happy.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited January 2015
    One thing worth noting in all this is how Merkel's popularity in Germany has surged since the last Euro flare-up in 2011-12. This might mean she's now able to sell the prospect of a cancellation of austerity (with Germany footing the bill) to her public, in a way she wouldn't've been able to back in 2011 even if she thought it would've been the best course of action.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    I find the Greek naivete that Things Can Only Get Better under the hard left to be very touching.

    It worked for Obama in 2 elections....
  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Relatively muted reaction in the financial markets - EURUSD down half a cent at around 1.1150, but holding above the 1.1118 lows seen at midday on Friday.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,157
    Chris_A said:

    How on earth do you translate votes to seats in Greece? Wikipedia seems opaque on the subject.

    IIUC it's proportional for the first 250, with a threshold (3%? 5%?) but then you give the last 50 to the leading party.

    So for a majority you need 100/250 which would be 40%, but then shave a bit off for parties that didn't clear the threshold.
  • Options
    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Getting to the point, how much cheaper are holidays in Greece going to be as a result of this election result?

    Hopefully greece will exit the eurozone. The Drachma will take the inevitable hit - and tbh anyone who has been lending Greece cash deserves to lose it.
    So who would lend them anything again? If only devaluing your currency were a way to economic riches then the UK would be the richest country on earth. The point is that its the IMF have been lending Greece cash. And why is Greece in this mess? If they paid their taxes it might have helped. If they had not fiddled (and been allowed to fiddle) the Euro membership conditions it might have helped.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Headlines Greeks revolt against Austerity...easier to print than botched monetary union, and failed puppet government.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    AndyJS said:

    Are there other left-wing parties in Greece who would help carry Syriza over the 150 mark?

    Most likely coalition would seem to be with the Greek independents which is a splinter group from New Democracy, that support the hard ball line of Syriza whilst remaining in the Euro, albeit from a Greek centre right perspective.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2015
    The fact that the winner gets a bonus means seat allocation is byzantine in the extreme. Parties coming second in particular areas can get most seats for example.
    Chris_A said:

    How on earth do you translate votes to seats in Greece? Wikipedia seems opaque on the subject.

  • Options
    Tim_B said:

    I find the Greek naivete that Things Can Only Get Better under the hard left to be very touching.

    It worked for Obama in 2 elections....

    The Republicans gifted Obama both elections. As with Greece, if the alternative had been better - and/or had not been seen to fail - maybe Obama would not have won so easily.

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,229
    hunchman said:

    Syriza is what happens when voters no longer feel that they have any stake in society. Today and tomorrow will probably be as good as it gets for the party, but for a moment the Greeks get to stick their two fingers up at the world. We will see more results like this over the coming months and years - perhaps in Spain next, with Podemos. And if living standards in the UK fail to improve for most people over a sustained period eventually it will happen here too. Syriza represents not only the collective failure of mainstream Greek political parties, but also of Europe's elite - sheltered as they are from the consequences of the decisions they take. It remains a fact that there has never been more wealth in Europe. The problem is that it is so poorly distributed. And in the end, that will come back to bite the wealth accumulators.

    Agreed - its just a shame that Syriza to appear mainstream still wish to remain in the Euro. The fatal design flaw of the euro - not having a single consolidated eurozone debt market, has doomed it to failure from the beginning. The lawyers like Mme Lagarde and Draghi that run the show have never asked themselves whether a single currency without a single debt market has ever worked throughout recorded history. It never has.

    Greece would be so much better off leaving the Euro - finally getting an exchange rate at which its economy can breathe. The sooner it defaults on its debt, gets out of the Euro and builds from scratch the better. That's not to say there won't be short term pain, but there simply is no long term sustainable recovery whilst it remains in the Euro - something Greece will painfully discover over the next 2 years or so. If it remains with the eurozone, then the simmering tensions could easily lead to something much more serious in Greece like a civil war in a few years time.
    The reason SYRIZA support euro membership is because 74% of Greeks agree with statement "Greece should remain in the euro no matter what the cost."

    SYRIZA has promised Greeks they can stay in the euro, with no more austerity.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,229

    Chris_A said:

    How on earth do you translate votes to seats in Greece? Wikipedia seems opaque on the subject.

    IIUC it's proportional for the first 250, with a threshold (3%? 5%?) but then you give the last 50 to the leading party.

    So for a majority you need 100/250 which would be 40%, but then shave a bit off for parties that didn't clear the threshold.
    There are also 12 fptp seats, I think.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,229
    @Casino, I'm in bed now, but will try and address your question tomorrow morning.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    rcs1000 said:

    hunchman said:

    Syriza is what happens when voters no longer feel that they have any stake in society. Today and tomorrow will probably be as good as it gets for the party, but for a moment the Greeks get to stick their two fingers up at the world. We will see more results like this over the coming months and years - perhaps in Spain next, with Podemos. And if living standards in the UK fail to improve for most people over a sustained period eventually it will happen here too. Syriza represents not only the collective failure of mainstream Greek political parties, but also of Europe's elite - sheltered as they are from the consequences of the decisions they take. It remains a fact that there has never been more wealth in Europe. The problem is that it is so poorly distributed. And in the end, that will come back to bite the wealth accumulators.

    Agreed - its just a shame that Syriza to appear mainstream still wish to remain in the Euro. The fatal design flaw of the euro - not having a single consolidated eurozone debt market, has doomed it to failure from the beginning. The lawyers like Mme Lagarde and Draghi that run the show have never asked themselves whether a single currency without a single debt market has ever worked throughout recorded history. It never has.

    Greece would be so much better off leaving the Euro - finally getting an exchange rate at which its economy can breathe. The sooner it defaults on its debt, gets out of the Euro and builds from scratch the better. That's not to say there won't be short term pain, but there simply is no long term sustainable recovery whilst it remains in the Euro - something Greece will painfully discover over the next 2 years or so. If it remains with the eurozone, then the simmering tensions could easily lead to something much more serious in Greece like a civil war in a few years time.
    The reason SYRIZA support euro membership is because 74% of Greeks agree with statement "Greece should remain in the euro no matter what the cost."

    SYRIZA has promised Greeks they can stay in the euro, with no more austerity.
    Someone's in for a rude awakening then.
  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    rcs1000 said:

    hunchman said:

    Syriza is what happens when voters no longer feel that they have any stake in society. Today and tomorrow will probably be as good as it gets for the party, but for a moment the Greeks get to stick their two fingers up at the world. We will see more results like this over the coming months and years - perhaps in Spain next, with Podemos. And if living standards in the UK fail to improve for most people over a sustained period eventually it will happen here too. Syriza represents not only the collective failure of mainstream Greek political parties, but also of Europe's elite - sheltered as they are from the consequences of the decisions they take. It remains a fact that there has never been more wealth in Europe. The problem is that it is so poorly distributed. And in the end, that will come back to bite the wealth accumulators.

    Agreed - its just a shame that Syriza to appear mainstream still wish to remain in the Euro. The fatal design flaw of the euro - not having a single consolidated eurozone debt market, has doomed it to failure from the beginning. The lawyers like Mme Lagarde and Draghi that run the show have never asked themselves whether a single currency without a single debt market has ever worked throughout recorded history. It never has.

    Greece would be so much better off leaving the Euro - finally getting an exchange rate at which its economy can breathe. The sooner it defaults on its debt, gets out of the Euro and builds from scratch the better. That's not to say there won't be short term pain, but there simply is no long term sustainable recovery whilst it remains in the Euro - something Greece will painfully discover over the next 2 years or so. If it remains with the eurozone, then the simmering tensions could easily lead to something much more serious in Greece like a civil war in a few years time.
    The reason SYRIZA support euro membership is because 74% of Greeks agree with statement "Greece should remain in the euro no matter what the cost."

    SYRIZA has promised Greeks they can stay in the euro, with no more austerity.
    Well its a start that having a government elected in defiance of the troika, and hopefully it'll only be a matter of time before a government gets elected that wants to get their country out of the Euro, whatever the machinations of Brussels to try to prevent such an outcome, although I suspect the markets will call the tune on the breakup of the euro before such a democratic event occurs. I can't help but feel that the 26% are not very well represented by the current Greek political setup.
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    edited January 2015

    Chris_A said:

    How on earth do you translate votes to seats in Greece? Wikipedia seems opaque on the subject.

    IIUC it's proportional for the first 250, with a threshold (3%? 5%?) but then you give the last 50 to the leading party.

    So for a majority you need 100/250 which would be 40%, but then shave a bit off for parties that didn't clear the threshold.
    But how to explain a result like Dramas municipality?

    3 seats
    New Democracy 34.6% 1 seat
    Syriza 26.6% 1 seat
    To Potami 8.4% 1 seat

    Certainly no PR system I know would give a party getting 8.4% in a 3 member constituency a seat.

    Have to say though, it's jolly decent of the Greek government to have an official results site in English

  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    maaarsh said:

    If they do now spend months negotiating, that will presumably be long enough to turn Tspiras native. If he's lucky they won't make him fly home from Germany with a piece of paper to present to a grateful country.

    'Turn native'; I think you don't realise what a difficult situation he (and Greece) is in. Every outcome is shit; the question is which is least shit.

    Default, and see a sudden dramatic fall in the real value of wages and pensions, and the destruction of the banks (and with them, people's savings). But almost certainly start to grow again.

    Or struggle through, under the control of the IMF, with relentlessly high (albeit slowly declining) unemployment.

    Economic reality says that money in has to equal money out, and that debts must be paid back or renegotiated.

    Nothing Tsiparas - or anyone else does - can change that.
    Grexit
    Ha very good! Is that your original? Going to nick it please?
    It's fairly common - same root as Brexit. Not mine to claim.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    maaarsh said:

    If they do now spend months negotiating, that will presumably be long enough to turn Tspiras native. If he's lucky they won't make him fly home from Germany with a piece of paper to present to a grateful country.

    'Turn native'; I think you don't realise what a difficult situation he (and Greece) is in. Every outcome is shit; the question is which is least shit.

    Default, and see a sudden dramatic fall in the real value of wages and pensions, and the destruction of the banks (and with them, people's savings). But almost certainly start to grow again.

    Or struggle through, under the control of the IMF, with relentlessly high (albeit slowly declining) unemployment.

    Economic reality says that money in has to equal money out, and that debts must be paid back or renegotiated.

    Nothing Tsiparas - or anyone else does - can change that.
    You missed one option: you do a controlled/negotiated Grexit (presumably with capital controls, pre-printing of currency, and a forced conversion of euro denominated debt into drachma at the official exchange rate).

    And then you default...
    Why would any business in Greece accept drachma that are obviously designed to drop in value when they could keep in taking hard currency?

    Greece can leave the Euro if it wants to, that won't make the Euro leave Greece.
    If the state pays employees in drachma and there is a forced conversion of all Greek bank accounts they may not have much choice.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Chris_A said:

    How on earth do you translate votes to seats in Greece? Wikipedia seems opaque on the subject.

    IIUC it's proportional for the first 250, with a threshold (3%? 5%?) but then you give the last 50 to the leading party.

    So for a majority you need 100/250 which would be 40%, but then shave a bit off for parties that didn't clear the threshold.
    101/250 or 40.4% if all parties gain representation.

    40.4% * I% where I% is the total which do in fact gain representation.

    National seat totals are apportioned by Hare quota (of those which pass the threshold), plus remainders.

    Constituency seats are apportioned by Hare quota (total votes). Unfilled constituency seats filled with those who have the largest remainders of Hare quotas, firstly examining the 3 and 2-member seats, then apportioning remaining seats by smallest national party first, to its largest Hare quota constituency remainder.

    The 50 bonus seats are then distributed to the remaining unfilled seats in the constituencies.

    [Other details were posted earlier on this thread]

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:


    - and he still doesn't have a single gay hair.

    Phew, we couldn't have gay hairs spoiling such an occasion.

    Oops - obviously that was meant to be 'gray' hair. The dangers of spell check without proofing carefully enough :-(
    You need a better poof reader....
    I was fagged out.

    On those same somewhat dubious humorous terms, the governor of Virginia was in hospital, said the CNN crawler the other day, as a result of being tossed by a horse.
    Now THAT is how to end a political career!
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    maaarsh said:

    If they do now spend months negotiating, that will presumably be long enough to turn Tspiras native. If he's lucky they won't make him fly home from Germany with a piece of paper to present to a grateful country.

    'Turn native'; I think you don't realise what a difficult situation he (and Greece) is in. Every outcome is shit; the question is which is least shit.

    Default, and see a sudden dramatic fall in the real value of wages and pensions, and the destruction of the banks (and with them, people's savings). But almost certainly start to grow again.

    Or struggle through, under the control of the IMF, with relentlessly high (albeit slowly declining) unemployment.

    Economic reality says that money in has to equal money out, and that debts must be paid back or renegotiated.

    Nothing Tsiparas - or anyone else does - can change that.
    You missed one option: you do a controlled/negotiated Grexit (presumably with capital controls, pre-printing of currency, and a forced conversion of euro denominated debt into drachma at the official exchange rate).

    And then you default...
    Why would any business in Greece accept drachma that are obviously designed to drop in value when they could keep in taking hard currency?

    Greece can leave the Euro if it wants to, that won't make the Euro leave Greece.
    I'm not sure how many words with limited numbers of syllables it would take to explain that to a hard left government which looks intent on spending more and borrowing more against a background of not paying its debts. Quite a lot. Just what would the value of a new drachma be? And where would it go after that?
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,157
    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    How on earth do you translate votes to seats in Greece? Wikipedia seems opaque on the subject.

    IIUC it's proportional for the first 250, with a threshold (3%? 5%?) but then you give the last 50 to the leading party.

    So for a majority you need 100/250 which would be 40%, but then shave a bit off for parties that didn't clear the threshold.
    But how to explain a result like Dramas municipality?

    3 seats
    New Democracy 34.6% 1 seat
    Syriza 26.6% 1 seat
    To Potami 8.4% 1 seat

    Certainly no PR system I know would give a party getting 8.4% in a 3 member constituency a seat.

    Have to say though, it's jolly decent of the Greek government to have an official results site in English

    I think it's top-down, so start by working out how many seats each party gets overall then apportion them to constituencies. Or if you only care how they make a government, just forget about the constituencies.
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