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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the Bashir move from UKIP to CON Marf gives her view
Marf on the Bashir/UKIP tow pic.twitter.com/t2nl85B457
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Has he confirmed he will? Or was it suggested that he might be "close" to agreeing?
The band is SYRIZA 35.5-39.5% , ND 23-27%.
The opinion polls showed the gap increasing in the last 2 weeks but if that is the result it exceeds my expectations.
The CON strategy is to kill these off without them being seen to be the party that's to blame. The Shapps comment was part of that.
Official results:
http://ekloges.ypes.gr/current/v/public/index.html?lang=en#{"cls":"main","params":{}}
Liveblog:
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_25/01/2015_546503
Greek TV:
http://webtv.nerit.gr/nerit1-live/
June 2012 results:
http://ekloges-prev.singularlogic.eu/v2012b/public/index.html?lang=en#{"cls":"main","params":{}}
Epharisto!!
DC
Is this true? Can we just opt out of the EU and use the money for ourselves?
Or will we end up paying as much to be able to trade with the EU?
Or since they need to trade with us just as much, will it not cost us anything to access the EU market?
Non-partisan answers appreciated.
Farage has made so many allegations he better watch out for the lawyers.
It should also be said in fairness, that the thought of the likes of Ms Lamont and SLAB (as they currently are) in charge in an independent Scotland was also a real put-off - it was certainly the main worry for an otherwise keen Yes-voting friend.
Still a shame we don't have any pukka Slabber, though.
BTW, what's wrong with Mr Murphy's fracking and Scotrail policies in your view?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/24/-sp-big-swing-voters-changing-lanes
Labour could do a lot worse than to listen to this Lab->Kipper switcher:
if you are a working class tradesman voting labour it's the equivalent of joining a union that offers your job to anyone who'll do it cheaper
Lots of the smaller parties have edged over 3%, which is also the opposite of what the recent opinion polls had shown.
if you are a working class tradesman voting labour it's the equivalent of joining a union that offers your job to anyone who'll do it cheaper
Yes and nobody listens to you because its a straightforward lie. Most immigrants contribute more to the economy that the bigots you represent.
However some of the contributions come from different budgets - e.g. I think about £1bn of the net amount comes from the DfID budget. Again, we would have a choice: we have budgeted for 0.7% of GDP, but if we choose to spend less then we can & it would be obvious to cut the money that we currently give to the EU to spend on our behalf first.
But I'd be surprised if you can't find £3bn of savings to allocate.
Of course, though, it's all bullsh1t. The NHS budget is so large that £3bn will be gobbled up as fast as you can say "budget increase"
Damian Thompson ✔ @holysmoke
Do you think @paulmasonnews will bother to disguise his jubilation at a #Syriza victory tonight?
A plea to you: please don't let your distaste for the Conservatives and general disbelief that they can win skew your pre-election threads. Be balanced and fair, please.
I've just read an absolutely fascinating book the Factory Man, about the impact of offshoring of the furniture industry on the economy of Virginia and the Carolinas.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Factory-Furniture-Battled-Offshoring-Stayed/dp/0316231436/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1422204683&sr=8-1&keywords=the+factory+man
While it is about a slightly different topic, what becomes clear is just how difficult it is to rebuild a community once the mainstay industry (think mining) disappears. In many ways, a lot of unskilled/semi-skilled immigration puts many of the same pressures on the local population than offshoring does
That would make a SYRIZA/PASOK coalition the most likely option.
Golden Dawn just makes it into third with 6.4%,
Update 3:55pm, read off the chart
if you are a working class tradesman voting labour it's the equivalent of joining a union that offers your job to anyone who'll do it cheaper
Mass immigration is a corporatist tool. Until the taxes on corporates have to rise and then they re-locate elsewhere to a country offering..... and this lowers the tax base and a vicious cycle of economic decline sets in.
Seriously the way that the Labour party have treated the working class beggars belief. Part of the problem is that the unions do not understand "market rates" as they are mainly in the public sector so they view immigration as good for their international socialist agenda.
"What about us workers" should be the cry.
In fact, the only good bit of This Week is Portillo.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Factory-Furniture-Battled-Offshoring-Stayed/dp/0316231436/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1422204683&sr=8-1&keywords=the+factory+man
While it is about a slightly different topic, what becomes clear is just how difficult it is to rebuild a community once the mainstay industry (think mining) disappears. In many ways, a lot of unskilled/semi-skilled immigration puts many of the same pressures on the local population than offshoring does
Exactly.
Now factor in not just the economic effect but the social effect on housing, schools etc as well.
Syriza, 35.5%
ND 23%
Pasok 6.4%
GD 6.4%
Because almost everyone made 4% (except George Panedreou's Party), a SYRIZA/PASOK coalition looks the most likely option.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Factory-Furniture-Battled-Offshoring-Stayed/dp/0316231436/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1422204683&sr=8-1&keywords=the+factory+man
While it is about a slightly different topic, what becomes clear is just how difficult it is to rebuild a community once the mainstay industry (think mining) disappears. In many ways, a lot of unskilled/semi-skilled immigration puts many of the same pressures on the local population than offshoring does
You are a capitalist and understand unit costs. What is the alternative ? Simple London hotels charging £200 a night ? A meal for £50. Without immigration we will become like Japan - stagnant because unit cost is too high. Some jobs need humans - still.
Might as well forget the agricultural industry; who knows how much an office cleaner or domestic cleaner would cost.
More importantly, as the population ages, who will pay the taxes ?
SquareRoot smearing Isam on here as a bigot is a cheap unfair shot.
One well respected Labour MP stated that the day rates for builders were cut by 50% because of Polish immigrants!
In response to the statement "There has been some impact on wages at the lower end, but it doesn't seem to have been very large."
"Not so, says John Denham, Labour MP for Southampton Itchen, who wants a more active political response to issues around immigration. Day rates in the local construction industry fell by up to 50% initially following the "arrival of a large group prepared to work casually for relatively low wages" in 2004, and fuelled a boom in labour agencies, some geared exclusively to eastern European migrants. "The sense that migration is associated with downward shift in wages is quite widespread," he says. More generally, the addition of around 15,000 people to a city of 200,000 following 2004 "meant a very big and visible change to its fabric and nature"." Guardian
Syriza 35.5-39.5
ND 23-27
Pasok & GD 6.4-8
All, pretty much as Speedy put it earlier.
Syriza looks to be a whisker (probably 5-10) seats away from a majority, with PASOK having done better than expected, and ND quite a lot worse.
Might as well forget the agricultural industry; who knows how much an office cleaner or domestic cleaner would cost.
More importantly, as the population ages, who will pay the taxes ?
In your world there is no innovation, change or productivity.
In thought you worked in machine tools ?
Might as well forget the agricultural industry; who knows how much an office cleaner or domestic cleaner would cost.
More importantly, as the population ages, who will pay the taxes ?
1. below the average pay tend to generate no net tax once all the welfare benefits are calculated in. In essence these jobs are being subsidised by the state.
2. In situations of mass immigrantion they tend to take up more of the low paid jobs.
3. What is starting to happen is that more UK born people are moving from being non-working benefit claimants to working benefit claimants.
4. If there are shortages of workers at the low end that will drive up the pay rates there and reduce the benefits paid and eventually turn some from negative tax payers to the positive.
5. I am happy to see office cleaners paid £10 an hour. Far better for society.
Mexico and South Korea, who also have bilateral trade deals, pay nothing. Canada, as best as I can tell, will pay nothing once that deal is signed.
2. In situations of mass immigrantion they tend to take up more of the low paid jobs.
3. What is starting to happen is that more UK born people are moving from being non-working benefit claimants to working benefit claimants.
4. If there are shortages of workers at the low end that will drive up the pay rates there and reduce the benefits paid and eventually turn some from negative tax payers to the positive.
5. I am happy to see office cleaners paid £10 an hour. Far better for society.
Bang on.
The immigrants that contribute a lot are the high skilled ones UKIP would still let in. It's the unskilled without jobs that Cameron isn't doing anything about that are a huge net drag.
The issue is the waste - both of lives and of economic value - of allowing people to languish on benefits while importing people to do the jobs that they are perfectly capable of doing.
Our politicians are seduced by looking at the macro picture without taking the time to understand the micro impact on communities and individuals
Still up in the air.
But then the cheap immigrants need state benefits in order to live so taxes have to rise to pay for them.
And after a few years these cheap immigrants want a higher standard of living so you demand even more, even cheaper immigrants because "the locals aren't willing to do the work".
Appreciate that.
Obviously whether Syriza has a maj or not is potentially very important in terms of policy for the new government and of course of the ease of forming a govt!
2. In situations of mass immigrantion they tend to take up more of the low paid jobs.
3. What is starting to happen is that more UK born people are moving from being non-working benefit claimants to working benefit claimants.
4. If there are shortages of workers at the low end that will drive up the pay rates there and reduce the benefits paid and eventually turn some from negative tax payers to the positive.
5. I am happy to see office cleaners paid £10 an hour. Far better for society.
Exactly.
Actually you are unfair to Cameron on this. The new jobs being created are being filled by circa 80% UK born people whereas in Lanbour's period of office the ratio was circa 20/30%. Hence why the number of young NEATs rose during the Labour period when the economy was growing. It is one of the achievements of this coalition for which both parties should be proud.
Also, Norway pay more due to a very high GDI level. $102,000 per year, versus the UK at $42,000 per year. Switzerland is at $91,000, but that number does not come into discussions, because it's a bilateral situation which is whatever you can negotiate individually.
So called benefit tourism is wrong and its pretty small.
''Until we know more, there is no evidence for the proposition that significant numbers of people come to the UK in search of a life on benefits.''
http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-immigrants-pay/16332
So cut that out and Farage in all his condescending glory would still therefor let lots in. People are here because the jobs are here thats why the lack of jobs in the Euro zone is bad news on so many levels. The labour woman spouting about capitalist plots needs to worry more about our own people languishing on benefits.
''Until we know more, there is no evidence for the proposition that significant numbers of people come to the UK in search of a life on benefits.''
http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-immigrants-pay/16332
So cut that out and Farage in all his condescending glory would still therefor let lots in. People are here because the jobs are here thats why the lack of jobs in the Euro zone is bad news on so many levels. The labour woman spouting about capitalist plots needs to worry more about our own people languishing on benefits.
So you accept Cameron is doing nothing to limit EU immigration then?
There are eight FPTP seats, but the winner only gets the seat if it also crosses the 3% national threshold...
The lists are mostly open, aside from a 12-seat national list. Voters can cast a limited number of votes (a kind of limited approval voting) for candidates on one party list (no panachage), and these will determine which candidates are elected. But the votes are fewer than the number of seats to be filled (and vary depending on constituency size). Parties can nominate more candidates than there are seats to be filled, within limits again depending on constituency size.
While the overall result (excluding the 50 bonus seats for the plurality winner) is proportional, the complicated allocation of seats to constituencies often means the number of local seats won by each party bears little relation to the local votes cast...
It's interesting doing the theoretical sums on things like net tax/NI take after tax credits of 100 couples with 2 kids earning £10,000 each plus one couple with 2 kids earning £1,000,000 each vs 100 couples earning £15,000 each plus one couple earning £500,000 each.
Without tax credits scenario 2 is a mild loss of tax income, with tax credits it's a massive increase in tax income.
'Talking about a Green surge, the only other seat worth thinking about is Norwich South - partly because it is a Lib Dem seat and where Greens have a good presence. The Bookies , however, have made Labour firm favourites.'
I live just over the border in Norwich North and am quite clear that the Greens have LOST ground in Norwich compared with 5/6 years ago. In 2010 there was much hype based on having topped the poll in local and 2009 Euro elections about them winning Norwich South - yet they came a distant 4th! Their former high profile candidate and deputy leader - Adrian Ramsey - has left the area and is not standing again. I will be quite surprised if they manage second place in May.
During the last year only 55% of the increase in employment has been to UK born people.
Page 55 on this report:
http://ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_390755.pdf
Just a national disgrace.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/11366155/Student-loans-the-real-cost-could-be-40000-more-than-official-estimates.html
Impossible to tell how it's going until the official map starts to light up - wish they had June 2012 comparatives for these polling stations!
Lefkada is the smallest constituency in Greece, only about 80 stations or so, think ND about 5% ahead here in Jun 12, so this is a key early one to watch.
Salmond finished his First Minister period -as he started it - as the most popular leader in the country. The fact that he was subjected to years of character assasination from the Telegraph and the rest of the propaganda press and shrugged it off makes it all the more remarkable, indeed probably unprecedented in modern politics.
In assesment of the referendum campaign Salmond was judged easily the most effective camapigner by people north but even more remarkably south of the border, perhaps influenced by the BBC debate which had a very large audience in England.
I hope (and believe) that the SNP have now managed to have two leaders running of tht sort of quality. However Nicola Sturgeon will come under the same sort of assault as Salmond and will have to be tough - really tough - to withstand it. I hope she will do it as successfully.
Why should you draw that conclusion. Cameron has talked about changing the EU rules.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30224493
We can change rules on benefits for immigrants and send them home if they are out of work so people can recognise they are fair, but the movement of labour is not going to go away even if it can be limited.
But if we are in or out of the EU there will still be significant immigration especially if we have a faster growing economy. The EEA have free movement of labour and a single market in goods. So-called free trade deals include liberal movement of labour. More free trade will mean more movement. We will have our own workers working abroad as well. Its not bad for our economy.
What's bad is our own workers languishing on benefits and not being available - unwilling - for work here or abroad. We can best limit immigration and improve ourselves at the same time by getting our own people off benefits.
I hope you're not condoning anybody causing 'problems' over cartoons.
It looks a case of he jumped before he was pushed.
Michael Green's interview today spoke volumes. Interesting there are no tweets on the Conservative's or Dave's twitter account welcoming him back to the party.
This has the potential to cause further embarrassment to the Tories depending on the outcome of the evidence handed over to the police.
Apparently Respect de-selected him before he joined UKIP over reputational concerns.
http://www.respectparty.org/2015/01/25/bashir-was-de-selected-by-respect/