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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the Bashir move from UKIP to CON Marf gives her view

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  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    maaarsh said:

    If they do now spend months negotiating, that will presumably be long enough to turn Tspiras native. If he's lucky they won't make him fly home from Germany with a piece of paper to present to a grateful country.

    'Turn native'; I think you don't realise what a difficult situation he (and Greece) is in. Every outcome is shit; the question is which is least shit.

    Default, and see a sudden dramatic fall in the real value of wages and pensions, and the destruction of the banks (and with them, people's savings). But almost certainly start to grow again.

    Or struggle through, under the control of the IMF, with relentlessly high (albeit slowly declining) unemployment.

    Economic reality says that money in has to equal money out, and that debts must be paid back or renegotiated.

    Nothing Tsiparas - or anyone else does - can change that.
    Grexit
    Ha very good! Is that your original? Going to nick it please?
    It's fairly common - same root as Brexit. Not mine to claim.
    Ah! First time I've seen or heard the word Brexit (waits for Ishmail to jump). Must show the different circles in which we move ;)
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Cookie said:

    Last time I was on here - last night, in the midst of feeding the baby - there was talk of some big story in the Sun about the zNHS which wasn't being included in any of the paper round-ups while the lawyers checked it. Did anything become of it?

    Not sure - is it the one where the Shadow Health Minister has admitted that labour will close hospitals and cut beds if they get elected in May?

    Have Labour got anything left? They have now blown up their only real chance of victory and I am sure the Tories will run with this till May.


  • So thats no MEPs and no commissioners then.
    It stands to reason the an agreement between Norway and the EU actually has terms to that agreement. Within that agreement is free movement of labour membership of Schengen and obeying the rules of the EU single market. Norway obeys the EU working time directive. It seems unlikely to me that any independent UK 'free trade agreement' with the EU would not involve things like the working time directive and any attempt to change that directive would be extremely unlikely from outside the EU.
    The end result is that if we are in the EEA then it might well be best for the UK nince we are not in the Euro. But it will not make much difference to single market issues.
    Its actually because we are not in the Euro that we need to renegotiate with the EU. I welcome a referendum on that. And whatever the nation votes it will have to live with.

    You really don't understand this at all do you. The reason that Norway is happy to sign up to the Working Time Directive - and they do not have to - is because their rules are actually stricter than those of the EU. They introduced a maximum 48 working week in 1919. The average working week in Norway is 33 hours. They obey much of the EU law by default because they have higher working rights than the rest of the EU.

    And the reason it doesn't matter about MEPs and Commissioners is because EFTA representatives have full participation on all the committees involved in the instigation and development all regulation that impacts EFTA countries and can change that regulation before it ever reaches the point of a vote. Indeed through the EEA agreement EFTA members often have more influence on the development of new regulation than individual EU members.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    @hunchman

    SYRIZA is a loose coalition, which contains some Lula type characters, who are broadly in favour of the bail out, albeit with a belief that concessions are possible. It also contains some who are communist and fundamentally anti euro. It is likely that the coalition will not survive a potential imf deal.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    How on earth do you translate votes to seats in Greece? Wikipedia seems opaque on the subject.

    IIUC it's proportional for the first 250, with a threshold (3%? 5%?) but then you give the last 50 to the leading party.

    So for a majority you need 100/250 which would be 40%, but then shave a bit off for parties that didn't clear the threshold.
    But how to explain a result like Dramas municipality?

    3 seats
    New Democracy 34.6% 1 seat
    Syriza 26.6% 1 seat
    To Potami 8.4% 1 seat

    Certainly no PR system I know would give a party getting 8.4% in a 3 member constituency a seat.

    Have to say though, it's jolly decent of the Greek government to have an official results site in English

    ND exceed the Hare quota, so were guaranteed a seat.

    Syriza and To Potami must have had (among) their largest unfilled quotas in this constituency and so were awarded seats also.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Looks like ND could well lose another seat to To Potami...
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    maaarsh said:

    If they do now spend months negotiating, that will presumably be long enough to turn Tspiras native. If he's lucky they won't make him fly home from Germany with a piece of paper to present to a grateful country.

    'Turn native'; I think you don't realise what a difficult situation he (and Greece) is in. Every outcome is shit; the question is which is least shit.

    Default, and see a sudden dramatic fall in the real value of wages and pensions, and the destruction of the banks (and with them, people's savings). But almost certainly start to grow again.

    Or struggle through, under the control of the IMF, with relentlessly high (albeit slowly declining) unemployment.

    Economic reality says that money in has to equal money out, and that debts must be paid back or renegotiated.

    Nothing Tsiparas - or anyone else does - can change that.
    You missed one option: you do a controlled/negotiated Grexit (presumably with capital controls, pre-printing of currency, and a forced conversion of euro denominated debt into drachma at the official exchange rate).

    And then you default...
    Why would any business in Greece accept drachma that are obviously designed to drop in value when they could keep in taking hard currency?

    Greece can leave the Euro if it wants to, that won't make the Euro leave Greece.
    If the state pays employees in drachma and there is a forced conversion of all Greek bank accounts they may not have much choice.
    What bank accounts? On your assumption that the accounts would be converted to drachmas at a silly rate and then the currency falls further - well, are there any bank accounts left in Greece? If you had money in a Greek bank account now - would you keep it there?
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    By the way No.1 twitter trend is …

    #UkipFilmTitles

    Look away now kippers, but it's very funny in places.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    maaarsh said:

    If they do now spend months negotiating, that will presumably be long enough to turn Tspiras native. If he's lucky they won't make him fly home from Germany with a piece of paper to present to a grateful country.

    'Turn native'; I think you don't realise what a difficult situation he (and Greece) is in. Every outcome is shit; the question is which is least shit.

    Default, and see a sudden dramatic fall in the real value of wages and pensions, and the destruction of the banks (and with them, people's savings). But almost certainly start to grow again.

    Or struggle through, under the control of the IMF, with relentlessly high (albeit slowly declining) unemployment.

    Economic reality says that money in has to equal money out, and that debts must be paid back or renegotiated.

    Nothing Tsiparas - or anyone else does - can change that.
    You missed one option: you do a controlled/negotiated Grexit (presumably with capital controls, pre-printing of currency, and a forced conversion of euro denominated debt into drachma at the official exchange rate).

    And then you default...
    Why would any business in Greece accept drachma that are obviously designed to drop in value when they could keep in taking hard currency?

    Greece can leave the Euro if it wants to, that won't make the Euro leave Greece.
    If the state pays employees in drachma and there is a forced conversion of all Greek bank accounts they may not have much choice.
    What bank accounts? On your assumption that the accounts would be converted to drachmas at a silly rate and then the currency falls further - well, are there any bank accounts left in Greece? If you had money in a Greek bank account now - would you keep it there?
    That's why it is done over a weekend: so you can screw the depositors. By the time they know it's happening, it's too late...

    I have a central cash pooling system plus a smattering of USD and EUR accounts for settlement purposes. Nothing in Greece...
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    ND lose another seat (to To Potami) with 85% counted...
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Rod C. ta. Found it eventually. The system does seem byzantine in the extreme and you're probably the only person who understands it.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Chris_A said:

    Rod C. ta. Found it eventually. The system does seem byzantine in the extreme and you're probably the only person who understands it.

    Check out the Danish system, or the Austrian.

    Check out FPTP also!
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited January 2015
    RodCrosby said:

    ND lose another seat (to To Potami) with 85% counted...

    Do you know how many seats Syriza are on? Still stuck on 149?

    I was monitoring Twitter but with the vast majority of the tweets being in Greek it is a little hard to work out what is going on.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited January 2015
    MP_SE said:

    RodCrosby said:

    ND lose another seat (to To Potami) with 85% counted...

    Do you know how many seats Syriza are on? Still stuck on 149?

    I was monitoring Twitter but with the vast majority of the tweets being in Greek it is a little hard to work out what is going on.
    Yeah, 149 and that looks firm (barring something odd happening with the last 15% to be counted)

    Was 148, GD gained one from from ND (for about 30 minutes), and then lost it to Syriza.

    To Potami then gained a seat from ND. It's not impossible that Syriza could yet gain that seat.

    The joys of largest remainder PR....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    MP_SE said:

    RodCrosby said:

    ND lose another seat (to To Potami) with 85% counted...

    Do you know how many seats Syriza are on? Still stuck on 149?

    I was monitoring Twitter but with the vast majority of the tweets being in Greek it is a little hard to work out what is going on.
    Highly unlikely they make 150, but still just about possible.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    maaarsh said:

    If they do now spend months negotiating, that will presumably be long enough to turn Tspiras native. If he's lucky they won't make him fly home from Germany with a piece of paper to present to a grateful country.

    'Turn native'; I think you don't realise what a difficult situation he (and Greece) is in. Every outcome is shit; the question is which is least shit.

    Default, and see a sudden dramatic fall in the real value of wages and pensions, and the destruction of the banks (and with them, people's savings). But almost certainly start to grow again.

    Or struggle through, under the control of the IMF, with relentlessly high (albeit slowly declining) unemployment.

    Economic reality says that money in has to equal money out, and that debts must be paid back or renegotiated.

    Nothing Tsiparas - or anyone else does - can change that.
    You missed one option: you do a controlled/negotiated Grexit (presumably with capital controls, pre-printing of currency, and a forced conversion of euro denominated debt into drachma at the official exchange rate).

    And then you default...
    Why would any business in Greece accept drachma that are obviously designed to drop in value when they could keep in taking hard currency?

    Greece can leave the Euro if it wants to, that won't make the Euro leave Greece.
    If the state pays employees in drachma and there is a forced conversion of all Greek bank accounts they may not have much choice.
    What bank accounts? On your assumption that the accounts would be converted to drachmas at a silly rate and then the currency falls further - well, are there any bank accounts left in Greece? If you had money in a Greek bank account now - would you keep it there?
    The smart money would have left a long while ago. There were reports a while back of London being awash with Greek money looking for a safe haven. Estate agents stated that there were a lot of Greek investors looking to buy high end property as it is a viewed as a relatively safe asset class.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    dr_spyn said:

    Another one comes out of the woodwork.


    Russell Brand, British comedian and campaigner
    Posted at
    tweets: I would vote for Syriza. This is exciting.

    This worm would, Syriza is just about his level.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Any chance of 151 now?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited January 2015
    AndyJS said:

    Any chance of 151 now?

    barring an earthquake, seemingly no.

    Syriza still 0.63% away from target with only 13.5% remaining.

    Caveat: I've no idea which areas are left to count....
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    MP_SE said:

    RodCrosby said:

    ND lose another seat (to To Potami) with 85% counted...

    Do you know how many seats Syriza are on? Still stuck on 149?

    I was monitoring Twitter but with the vast majority of the tweets being in Greek it is a little hard to work out what is going on.
    It's all Greek to me too...
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    AndyJS said:

    Any chance of 151 now?

    Not likely now unless there is a late spurt from the Athens-Piraeus region.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Morning all. Nice cartoon marf, so as a Tory supporter, can anyone tell me what the "line to take" is on Bashir's membership of Respect ? *innocent face*
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Indigo said:

    Morning all. Nice cartoon marf, so as a Tory supporter, can anyone tell me what the "line to take" is on Bashir's membership of Respect ? *innocent face*

    Tories supporters don't have "lines to take". They just say what they think.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Charles said:

    Indigo said:

    Morning all. Nice cartoon marf, so as a Tory supporter, can anyone tell me what the "line to take" is on Bashir's membership of Respect ? *innocent face*

    Tories supporters don't have "lines to take". They just say what they think.
    Supporters in general, sure. But what line are we all expecting the top brass to take I wonder.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited January 2015
    MikeK said:

    AndyJS said:

    Any chance of 151 now?

    Not likely now unless there is a late spurt from the Athens-Piraeus region.
    There's nothing more unfortunate than a Greek having a late spurt :-)
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Syriza edging closer to 150, to take the To Potami seat.

    Only about 0.14 of a seat in it...
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Indigo said:

    Morning all. Nice cartoon marf, so as a Tory supporter, can anyone tell me what the "line to take" is on Bashir's membership of Respect ? *innocent face*

    I think the latest on that revelation is Bashir denied it and Gorgeous George has claimed he has photographic evidence which suggests otherwise.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    .07 now...
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    .06
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    .03
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    .02
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited January 2015
    Evening all.

    Well, the Greeks seem to have gone for the nuclear option.

    There are now two possible outcomes: disaster, if they get what they voted for, and disappointment, if (as seems likely) Tsipras negotiates some kind of fudge.

    He has one card, and it's a powerful one: the absolute priority the EU elite give (with good reason, to be fair) to the need not to let membership of the Euro appear reversible. That would undermine the whole Euro project, and make the economics unworkable.

    Holding that card gives him some leverage, but not enough to conjure money out of thin air. So the only possible outcome, other than disaster, is fudge - but of course either way there can be no end to 'austerity' (i.e. spending something moderately close to what you earn).
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    .04
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RodCrosby said:

    .04

    The disappointment must be terrible.

    So close to crossover ;)
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    .07
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    RodCrosby said:

    .04

    So close :(
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    .14
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Is it really in UKIP's interest to keep this story going? I would have thought 'more in sorrow than in anger...' would have dampened it down faster than the 'amazing revelations/character assassination' (delete as appropriate) we are seeing....

    ...Or is it a clever ruse to bury Farage's NHS U-turn and the double spend of the 'Leaving the EU' money?

    UKIP's new pledge to spend an extra £3bn a year is an about turn for Nigel Farage. Gone was his message that ring-fencing NHS spending after the general election is "ridiculous", replaced instead by support for what George Osborne has already promised, and then some.

    This will please UKIP MP Douglas Carswell, who has said the party must pledge to spend more. It seems he's won the battle with the leader - and former policy chief Tim Aker - who both made it clear that cuts to NHS spending were not off the table.


    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30972569
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Evening all.

    Well, the Greeks seem to have gone for the nuclear option.

    There are now two possible outcomes: disaster, if they get what they voted for, and disappointment, if (as seems likely) Tsipras negotiates some kind of fudge.

    He has one card, and it's a powerful one: the absolute priority the EU elite give (with good reason, to be fair) to the need not to let membership of the Euro appear reversible. That would undermine the whole Euro project, and make the economics unworkable.

    Holding that card gives him some leverage, but not enough to conjure money out of thin air. So the only possible outcome, other than disaster, is fudge - but of course either way there can be no end to 'austerity' (i.e. spending something moderately close to what you earn).

    Surely the economics for some countries, are unworkable?

    One of the major weapons a country has, in managing its economy, is the ability to adjust the value of its currency, and adjust interest rates.

    With the advent of the Euro, that has gone. Spain and Greece have the same currency and interest rate as France and Germany. That might be good for Germany - not so much so for Spain and Greece.

    The Euro is a political construct, with no realistic economic component.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    .12
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Wow, Sepp Blatter has said something I agree with:

    Fifa president Sepp Blatter has accused Uefa of lacking the "courage" to challenge his leadership.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30976812
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    .10
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Alex Wickham (@WikiGuido)
    25/01/2015 17:00
    Pros of defection: headache for UKIP
    Cons of defection: he's a loony and has to be barricaded inside his house with a Tory press officer
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    .08
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    but of course either way there can be no end to 'austerity' (i.e. spending something moderately close to what you earn).

    Or an alternative definition is 'spending people's hard-earned taxes on public services for those taxpayers, rather than showering unaccountable bond-market traders with goodies'.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    kle4 said:

    Wow, Sepp Blatter has said something I agree with:

    Fifa president Sepp Blatter has accused Uefa of lacking the "courage" to challenge his leadership.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30976812

    - and even more incredible, it's the truth.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    RodCrosby said:

    .10

    Rod Crosby lies over the ocean,
    Rod Crosby lies over the sea,
    Rod Crosby lies over the ocean,
    O swingback Rod Crosby to me.
    Swingback, swingback, O swingback Rod Crosby to me, to me:
    Swingback, swingback, O swingback Rod Crosby to me.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    isam said:

    Alex Wickham (@WikiGuido)
    25/01/2015 17:00
    Pros of defection: headache for UKIP
    Cons of defection: he's a loony and has to be barricaded inside his house with a Tory press officer

    I think so far he has been a member of the SDP, Labour, Tories, Respect, UKIP and finally the Tories. I feel rather sorry for the Lib Dems as he is yet to join them. There is still time as he won't be up for re-election until 2020.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    MP_SE said:

    isam said:

    Alex Wickham (@WikiGuido)
    25/01/2015 17:00
    Pros of defection: headache for UKIP
    Cons of defection: he's a loony and has to be barricaded inside his house with a Tory press officer

    I think so far he has been a member of the SDP, Labour, Tories, Respect, UKIP and finally the Tories. I feel rather sorry for the Lib Dems as he is yet to join them. There is still time as he won't be up for re-election until 2020.
    He didn't pass Respect's vetting procedures. Respect - a party headed by Gorgeous George, not being able to pass their vetting procedures. FFs...
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Danny565 said:

    but of course either way there can be no end to 'austerity' (i.e. spending something moderately close to what you earn).

    Or an alternative definition is 'spending people's hard-earned taxes on public services for those taxpayers, rather than showering unaccountable bond-market traders with goodies'.
    I think you're missing his point - it's not where the money is spent, it's the fact that it is spent. Spending is spending. The laws of mathematics cannot be evaded for ever.
  • Tim_B said:

    kle4 said:

    Wow, Sepp Blatter has said something I agree with:

    Fifa president Sepp Blatter has accused Uefa of lacking the "courage" to challenge his leadership.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30976812

    - and even more incredible, it's the truth.
    In fairness I think UEFA have calculated that a European candidate would not have enough votes, so they have thrown their weight behind Prince Ali in the hope he can pick up votes from Europe and Asia.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited January 2015
    Syriza about 0.58% of the popular vote away from 151, with 9% to count.

    150 still very possible. Now 0.13 of a seat away. [Remainder PR]
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    RodCrosby said:

    Syriza about 0.58% of the popular vote away from 151, with 9% to count.

    150 still very possible. Now 0.13 of a seat away. [Remainder PR]

    Is 151 a possibility at all?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited January 2015
    Well yes, the numbers indicate it's perfectly possible. However at the current rate of progress, doesn't seem likely.

    As I said, I've no idea what's left to count though...

    8% left to count, still 0.58% of the PV away from 151.

    .09 of a seat away from 150.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I asked a bit earlier. Not much.
    Danny565 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Syriza about 0.58% of the popular vote away from 151, with 9% to count.

    150 still very possible. Now 0.13 of a seat away. [Remainder PR]

    Is 151 a possibility at all?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Is 150 more similiar to 149 or 151 in terms of power ?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    .10
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Danny565

    'Or an alternative definition is 'spending people's hard-earned taxes on public services for those taxpayers, rather than showering unaccountable bond-market traders with goodies'.

    Great,you just need to explain who will lend to you the next time you need money.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    .17
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited January 2015
    .18 from 150, 0.61% from 151...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RodCrosby said:

    .18 from 150, 0.61% from 151...

    They're on 36.32% so they need 36.50% I take it, or is that too simple?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Labour for higher energy bills:

    Ultimately fracking cannot be compatible with our long-term commitments to cut climate-changing emissions unless full-scale carbon capture and storage technology is rolled out rapidly, which currently looks unlikely," said committee chair Joan Walley MP.....

    ....Prof Quentin Fisher of the University of Leeds said the committee was putting the "ill-informed views of anti-fracking groups" ahead of evidence-based scientific studies.

    "Gas will be a significant part of the UK's energy mix for the foreseeable future and it is preferable that we are as self-sufficient as possible," he said.

    "Hopefully, MPs will reject the findings of this report and allow UK citizens to receive the economic and social benefits that shale gas extraction could bring."


    http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30955291

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    So people understand, there are currently 4 remainder seats to allocate.

    The 4th and 5th largest remainders are:-

    To Potami, 0.523
    Syriza, 0.382

    If Syriza overtakes To Potami's remainder, they're on 150 [although it could still cross back, of course]
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RodCrosby said:

    So people understand, there are currently 4 remainder seats to allocate.

    The 4th and 5th largest remainders are:-

    To Potami, 0.523
    Syriza, 0.382

    If Syriza overtakes To Potami's remainder, they're on 150 [although it could still cross back, of course]

    Thanks.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited January 2015
    7% left to count

    The crucial figures are 0.58% and 0.11 of a seat, for 151 and 150 repectively...
  • Congrats to Syriza!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Euro hits 11-year low after Syriza victory in Greece
    The euro has fallen sharply against the dollar after the anti-austerity Syriza party won the Greek general election.


    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30977714?ocid=socialflow_twitter

  • Nice cartoon by the way, marf!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited January 2015
    .10
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    1.00 GBP = 1.34432 EUR
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    RodCrosby said:

    .09

    Which website is this again ?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Pulpstar said:

    RodCrosby said:

    .09

    Which website is this again ?
    My own calcs from the site I linked last...
  • Pulpstar said:

    1.00 GBP = 1.34432 EUR

    [Evil laughter] :)
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    .08
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Remainders 3 and 4 are now crucial (as before, except the positions)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Syriza percentage is increasing by 0.01% every so often.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    6% left to count

    0.57% for 151
    0.08 of a seat for 150
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2015
    Syriza is heading for pretty much the same percentage as Blair got in 2005 when he won a clear majority of 66 seats.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited January 2015
    .03

    0.55%
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Is Permatan going off-piste?

    Labour's former Europe minister Peter Hain compared the measures imposed on the Greeks to the restrictions placed upon Germany after the First World War.
    On Twitter he said: "Fantastic Syriza win: austerity does not work for Greece, for Tory/Lib Dem UK, nor for EU; we all need investment in growth not savage cuts."
    Earlier, on BBC1's Andrew Marr Show, he said: "I think this will be a big kick to the orthodoxy, the austerity gripping the European Union and, indeed, most of the world including Britain."


    Look forward to the two Ed's enthusiastic endorsement.......


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-2926102/Cameron-warning-Syriza-win.html#ixzz3PsuRShGi
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    RodCrosby said:

    .03

    Big jump
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The Sun's 'Labour NHS Bombshell':

    Labour could cut the number of hospital beds under its plans to merge health and social care, Andy Burnham has hinted.

    The shadow health secretary was accused of "rank hypocrisy" after comments emerged indicating that cutting beds would help pay for his policy, which could even result in hospital closures.

    The Sun on Sunday reported that Mr Burnham insisted treating the separate health and social care budgets as one would deliver much better results.



    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-2925136/Labour-cut-hospital-beds.html#ixzz3PsvRULO3

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    .04
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited January 2015
    .02

    To Potami, 0.519
    Syriza, 0.497
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited January 2015
    less than 5% to go

    0.04

    0.56%
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    RodCrosby said:

    less than 5% to go

    0.4

    0.56%

    The 0.02 metric you were using jumped to 0.4 ?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    .03
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,647
    I sense that this may not have been the best night to ask a non-greece related question...

    But having said that, the late-night crew may answer something the evening shift could not.

    So, my question is this: "what were the betting odds on the night before the 2010 UK general election?"

    I've tried everywhere, but with no success. So if anybody has a clue, I'd be grateful
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Pulpstar said:

    RodCrosby said:

    less than 5% to go

    0.4

    0.56%

    The 0.02 metric you were using jumped to 0.4 ?
    Sorry, .04
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    viewcode said:

    I sense that this may not have been the best night to ask a non-greece related question...

    But having said that, the late-night crew may answer something the evening shift could not.

    So, my question is this: "what were the betting odds on the night before the 2010 UK general election?"

    I've tried everywhere, but with no success. So if anybody has a clue, I'd be grateful

    Conservative was a bit high, and Lib Dems way too high, with Labour too low in the spreads. I rmember that !
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    149/150 seats seems to be on a knife edge, with 151 out of reach - unless there is a late precint "Virginia" reporting effect that suddenly skews things Syriza's way.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    .06
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    viewcode said:

    I sense that this may not have been the best night to ask a non-greece related question...

    But having said that, the late-night crew may answer something the evening shift could not.

    So, my question is this: "what were the betting odds on the night before the 2010 UK general election?"

    I've tried everywhere, but with no success. So if anybody has a clue, I'd be grateful

    They might have been mentioned in the PB archives. Here are the May 2010 pages. The comments aren't there any more unfortunately, but the headers may have mentioned something.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/05/page/18/
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited January 2015
    .08
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,647
    Pulpstar said:

    viewcode said:

    I sense that this may not have been the best night to ask a non-greece related question...

    But having said that, the late-night crew may answer something the evening shift could not.

    So, my question is this: "what were the betting odds on the night before the 2010 UK general election?"

    I've tried everywhere, but with no success. So if anybody has a clue, I'd be grateful

    Conservative was a bit high, and Lib Dems way too high, with Labour too low in the spreads. I rmember that !
    From the somewhat frantic reading up I've been doing, there is an inherent problem with translating odds to probabilities. Aside from the previously discussed over round, there is also the fact that bookiemath does not acknowledge the existence of zero nor infinity: a bookie will not offer odds of 0/1 on an absolutely certain event, nor infinity/1 on an impossible event. I think the lowest shadsy will go is 1/100, and the highest odds I've seen for the present parliament is 999/1.

    However, this is neither here nor there. Unfortunately, I need the exact odds...:-(

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    This article might help. (I haven't read it all myself):

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/may/05/election-betting-record
    viewcode said:

    Pulpstar said:

    viewcode said:

    I sense that this may not have been the best night to ask a non-greece related question...

    But having said that, the late-night crew may answer something the evening shift could not.

    So, my question is this: "what were the betting odds on the night before the 2010 UK general election?"

    I've tried everywhere, but with no success. So if anybody has a clue, I'd be grateful

    Conservative was a bit high, and Lib Dems way too high, with Labour too low in the spreads. I rmember that !
    From the somewhat frantic reading up I've been doing, there is an inherent problem with translating odds to probabilities. Aside from the previously discussed over round, there is also the fact that bookiemath does not acknowledge the existence of zero nor infinity: a bookie will not offer odds of 0/1 on an absolutely certain event, nor infinity/1 on an impossible event. I think the lowest shadsy will go is 1/100, and the highest odds I've seen for the present parliament is 999/1.

    However, this is neither here nor there. Unfortunately, I need the exact odds...:-(

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited January 2015
    There's something like 1000 votes [500 vote swing] in it, for this seat between To Potami and Syriza...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I think SYRIZA will get 150, the constituencies with more than 10% left have SYRIZA ahead, one of the large one (Ahaia) still has another 12.4% to be counted with SYRIZA at 43% there.
This discussion has been closed.