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The German election thread – politicalbetting.com

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,152

    Some peeps are sending in emails with five bullet points that just read:

    "Fought Fascism"

    Unserious larpers who insult the memory of people like Sophie Scholl.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051
    edited February 23

    Some peeps are sending in emails with five bullet points that just read:

    "Fought Fascism"

    That seems like an unwise action from those who are employees, to identify oneself as someone Musk would regard as an opponent.

    He would be in the wrong to try to get action against them, but it's a headache best to avoid. So I guess outsiders doing it makes sense.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,163
    Foxy said:

    If I am reading the results correctly it seems to be an 83% turnout. That's pretty impressive.

    Though it's usually well into the 70s.
    82% in 98.
    And the old West Germany had turnout in the high 80s, low 90s even.
    And all that pretty poor showing compared to the old East Germany with turnouts typically over 99%!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,910
    ohnotnow said:

    They very much haven't. They have grok3 which is almost as good as early last years models. It fails tasks even open-source small models from last autumn could pass, never mind ones from this year. Being generous - they are about a year behind, which puts them on about par with the other commercial providers time-wise.

    Not true for my use-case. Grok3 is the best

    But we await Claude 4 which is ALSO expected v soon

    The exponential curve is here….
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051

    There's about 4 million federal employees.

    Even if they all dutifully replied rather than tell Eloniski to fuck off, who is going to read 20 million bullet points?

    Grok?
    Yes, it is a remarkably dumb idea if the intent was actually to assess how effective people are, even leaving aside that people could just make stuff up. So either it is just dumb, or the disruption was the sole point.
  • The SDP
    I thought the FDP pulled out of the coalition with the SDP and Greens which is what triggered the election?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432

    Do they include housing and defined contribution pension pots as assets ?
    My German isn't quite up to that level of detail, but they are going to be in opposition not government.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    BSW is on 4.955% (after 154/299 declared) - and it's drifting up.

    FDP is on 4.1% - appears out of it.
  • Scott_xP said:


    Foreign political parties should be banned from using acronyms that mean something else.

    Every time I see BSW on this thread I think Whitworth?

    Other way round for me, when I see the Banque Nationale de Paris adverts at the French Open tennis.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051

    Like I said. No-one more fickle with their vote than the Snow Geese.
    I assume the Conservatives there are desperate to disavow Trump's recent comments, but that at least some of their base (even if only a minority) are Trump fans, so waverers don't believe them. Pollievre may well have lost his shot if things continue like this.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    BSW now 5.0% (after 165/299)
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    kle4 said:

    Yes, it is a remarkably dumb idea if the intent was actually to assess how effective people are, even leaving aside that people could just make stuff up. So either it is just dumb, or the disruption was the sole point.
    Dumb but disruptive is a very plausible answer
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432
    kamski said:

    Though it's usually well into the 70s.
    82% in 98.
    And the old West Germany had turnout in the high 80s, low 90s even.
    And all that pretty poor showing compared to the old East Germany with turnouts typically over 99%!
    One of the benefits of PR is that every vote counts, unlike in FPTP.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    kle4 said:

    Yes, it is a remarkably dumb idea if the intent was actually to assess how effective people are, even leaving aside that people could just make stuff up. So either it is just dumb, or the disruption was the sole point.
    Yup. How "efficient" is it to give every Government employee MORE paperwork (another legacy term when no paper is involved)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051

    https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114054706390970120

    LOOKS LIKE THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY IN GERMANY HAS WON THE VERY BIG AND HIGHLY ANTICIPATED ELECTION. MUCH LIKE THE USA, THE PEOPLE OF GERMANY GOT TIRED OF THE NO COMMON SENSE AGENDA, ESPECIALLY ON ENERGY AND IMMIGRATION, THAT HAS PREVAILED FOR SO MANY YEARS. THIS IS A GREAT DAY FOR GERMANY, AND FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA UNDER THE LEADERSHIP OF A GENTLEMAN NAMED DONALD J. TRUMP. CONGRATULATIONS TO ALL — MANY MORE VICTORIES TO FOLLOW!!!
    I know it didn't work as a political attack, but he is rather weird. Who talks like that?
  • MikeL said:

    BSW now 5.0% (after 165/299)

    5.0% or 5.0%?

    A very big difference depending upon which 5.0% it is.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    BSW 5.01% (after 175/299)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,675
    Scott_xP said:

    Yup. How "efficient" is it to give every Government employee MORE paperwork (another legacy term when no paper is involved)
    He seems to be claiming now that it is way of finding out whether the federal employee is dead.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,737
    edited February 23
    Scott_xP said:

    The emerging bitchfight between Musk and the actually confirmed by the Senate heads of real Government departments will be entertaining and might actually lead to some kind of resolution. Can Musk sack people if their boss tells them he can't?

    Popcorn...
    The impact on / of the prison system is going to be revealing.

    The USA prison system has 1.8 million inmates, which is around the same as the peak population of the Gulag Archipelago in the 1950s afaics, plus 2.9 million on probation and 0.8 million on parole.

    They spend around $150bn a year on housing them, despite the conditions being third world level. That's around 0.6% of GDP. Plus a multiplier in impact on economic activity.

    I wonder if Musk will start wielding his chainsaw there.

    For all Trump's humbug about criminal immigrants, USA born citizens are more likely to be criminals.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051

    He seems to be claiming now that it is way of finding out whether the federal employee is dead.
    When new explanations for actions are produced it is often a sign of invention when the real reason is unpalatable or proven to be nonsense. See also one Putin, Vladimir.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,152

    He seems to be claiming now that it is way of finding out whether the federal employee is dead.
    Dead lazy. He says some of them don’t even read their emails.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,675

    Matthew Yglesias
    @mattyglesias
    ·
    1h
    Replying to @mattyglesias

    Trump is now pretending that his administration was backing CDU all along when both the VP and Shadow President Musk very explicitly tried to get center-right Germans to vote AfD instead.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,211

    https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114054706390970120

    LOOKS LIKE THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY IN GERMANY HAS WON THE VERY BIG AND HIGHLY ANTICIPATED ELECTION. MUCH LIKE THE USA, THE PEOPLE OF GERMANY GOT TIRED OF THE NO COMMON SENSE AGENDA, ESPECIALLY ON ENERGY AND IMMIGRATION, THAT HAS PREVAILED FOR SO MANY YEARS. THIS IS A GREAT DAY FOR GERMANY, AND FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA UNDER THE LEADERSHIP OF A GENTLEMAN NAMED DONALD J. TRUMP. CONGRATULATIONS TO ALL — MANY MORE VICTORIES TO FOLLOW!!!
    I wonder what the gentleman named Trump thinks of this ?

    “I would’ve never thought I would need to say something like this on television,” Merz said on a post-election panel of party leaders. “But after Donald Trump’s statements last week, it’s clear: this American government doesn’t care for Europe.”

    Merz also criticized what he called “interference” from Elon Musk, who had promoted the AfD, “drastic and shameful – similar to what we’ve heard from Moscow in the past”.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051
    kamski said:

    Though it's usually well into the 70s.
    82% in 98.
    And the old West Germany had turnout in the high 80s, low 90s even.
    And all that pretty poor showing compared to the old East Germany with turnouts typically over 99%!
    Wow, the east must have been super popular! :)
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,153
    edited February 23
    kle4 said:

    I know it didn't work as a political attack, but he is rather weird. Who talks like that?
    People with dementia?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,163
    MikeL said:

    BSW 5.01% (after 175/299)

    There's going to be a few ups and downs. There's a few constituencies still to come in (in the new Bundesländer) where they will get 10% or more, but there's also a lot of constituencies where they will get less than 5%, so still very hard to say except that it's going to be close.
  • Dead lazy. He says some of them don’t even read their emails.
    Not if they're spam.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,163

    He seems to be claiming now that it is way of finding out whether the federal employee is dead.
    Genius
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,152
    AfD now up to 20.7% with ARD with BSW still below the threshold.

    https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2025-02-23-BT-DE/index.shtml
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,644
    kamski said:

    Maybe, but also the Left had clear messaging focusing on high rent, high bills, high cost of living, low wages, low pensions, and inequality. Plus the BSW looked like an incompetent personality cult.
    I think that's right - Wagenknecht failed to show that the party was more than a vehicle for herself. But the Left fought a very effecftive campaign, reminding people what positive leftism is about. The SPD fought the election largely as a defensive action.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,136
    edited February 23

    Not if they're spam.
    If there's one thing I hate its people deciding to just email everyone with whatever stream of consciousness is in their head today.

    I've long had thousands of unread emails on my personal account and that doesn't bother me, they can just sit there never to be read. I hate that on my work account though so every few weeks I just mass-archive hundreds of unread emails to reset it back down to zero and let it start to build up again.

    No Janice, I've not seen your missing water bottle.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,163

    The SDP
    I was going to say it's David Owen masterminding things from beyond the grave, but he's actually still alive!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,152
    Misleading claim alert - it looks increasingly like the AfD could come first in the party vote ahead of the CDU.
  • Foxy said:

    My German isn't quite up to that level of detail, but they are going to be in opposition not government.
    On a more general point the definition of assets is going to be increasingly important.

    All my oldies (all on defined benefit pensions) think I'm enormously rich because of my defined contribution pension pots.
  • Are we even sure he knows where Germany is?
    They were his good guys in World War Two weren't they?

    The ones his supporters have national flags of up in their basements.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051
    kamski said:

    I was going to say it's David Owen masterminding things from beyond the grave, but he's actually still alive!
    Or is that just what he wants you to think?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,999
    MattW said:

    The impact on / of the prison system is going to be revealing.

    The USA prison system has 1.8 million inmates, which is around the same as the peak population of the Gulag Archipelago in the 1950s afaics, plus 2.9 million on probation and 0.8 million on parole.

    They spend around $150bn a year on housing them, despite the conditions being third world level. That's around 0.6% of GDP. Plus a multiplier in impact on economic activity.

    I wonder if Musk will start wielding his chainsaw there.

    For all Trump's humbug about criminal immigrants, USA born citizens are more likely to be criminals.
    I'm sure Vlad would happily house all those US prisoners in his gulags for, say, $15bn a year.

    And there will be absolutely no coercion to make them volunteer to join the troops of the Glorious Motherland in exchange for their sentence being halved...
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,163

    Misleading claim alert - it looks increasingly like the AfD could come first in the party vote ahead of the CDU.

    No it isn't
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    MattW said:

    The impact on / of the prison system is going to be revealing.

    The USA prison system has 1.8 million inmates, which is around the same as the peak population of the Gulag Archipelago in the 1950s afaics, plus 2.9 million on probation and 0.8 million on parole.

    They spend around $150bn a year on housing them, despite the conditions being third world level. That's around 0.6% of GDP. Plus a multiplier in impact on economic activity.

    I wonder if Musk will start wielding his chainsaw there.

    For all Trump's humbug about criminal immigrants, USA born citizens are more likely to be criminals.
    True, but they also do a lot of work for pennies in wages, including making a remarkable proportion of US office furniture.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,152
    kamski said:

    No it isn't
    What percentage do you think the CSU will end up with?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,999

    Are we even sure he knows where Germany is?
    He knows it better as the home of the Third Reich.
  • Are we even sure he knows where Germany is?
    They were the country that Poland cruelly invaded in 1939 :lol:
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,163

    What percentage do you think the CSU will end up with?
    about 6%
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    kamski said:

    No it isn't
    The AfD stand everywhere in Germany. The CDU stand everywhere outside Bavaria because the CSU stand in Bavaria.

    I doubt the story is true but even if it is it’s comparing an apple with 15/16ths of an apple
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,163
    kamski said:

    about 6%
    possibly 6.1
  • pancakespancakes Posts: 49
    edited February 23

    If it is a Grand Coalition and there is consolidation on the far-left then it will provide the ideal conditions for both the AfD and Die Linke to increase their support.

    Why would there be a consolidation on the far left?
    It seems unlikely that an imminent reconciliation between Wagenknecht and her former party is on the cards.
    Also, even if BSW falls short of 5%, they're going to be so close to the bar that she, they and their activists have every incentive to try again next time rather than let their supporters go elsewhere.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051

    They were the country that Poland cruelly invaded in 1939 :lol:
    Or, alternatively, brought it all on themselves by not conceding on all Germany's reasonable requests.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,999

    He seems to be claiming now that it is way of finding out whether the federal employee is dead.
    Is there a way of finding out if they are off their tits on ketamine?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,910
    AfD doing SUPERBLY now

    Like a lithiumed Chinese EV cruising towards the silver medal
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,163
    eek said:

    The AfD stand everywhere in Germany. The CDU stand everywhere outside Bavaria because the CSU stand in Bavaria.

    I doubt the story is true but even if it is it’s comparing an apple with 15/16ths of an apple
    you mean 5/6ths

    But even if you want to make the false comparison the CDU minus CSU will get over 22% and the AfD will get under 21%, unless the current projections are wrong.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
    edited February 23
    Leon said:

    AfD doing SUPERBLY now

    Like a lithiumed Chinese EV cruising towards the silver medal

    They'll probably be ahead in the polls within 6 months.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,152
    kamski said:

    possibly 6.1
    Ok, you're probably right. There are still a lot of results from NRW and Baden-Württemberg to come in.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    BSW 4.94% (after 222/299)
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,483
    Leon said:

    Not true for my use-case. Grok3 is the best

    But we await Claude 4 which is ALSO expected v soon

    The exponential curve is here….
    What is your use-case? It's failed pretty much every test-case I have.

    And yes, Claude 4 (or the 3.5 'paprika') will be very welcome.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773

    If there's one thing I hate its people deciding to just email everyone with whatever stream of consciousness is in their head today.

    I've long had thousands of unread emails on my personal account and that doesn't bother me, they can just sit there never to be read. I hate that on my work account though so every few weeks I just mass-archive hundreds of unread emails to reset it back down to zero and let it start to build up again.

    No Janice, I've not seen your missing water bottle.
    The lift is out of order
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
    MikeL said:

    BSW 4.94% (after 222/299)

    It's going to be close but no cigar I think.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,163
    edited February 23
    pancakes said:

    Why would there be a consolidation on the far left?
    It seems unlikely that an imminent reconciliation between Wagenknecht and her former party is on the cards.
    Also, even if BSW falls short of 5%, they're going to be so close to the bar that she, they and their activists have every incentive to try again next time rather than let their supporters go elsewhere.
    You'd think there'd be a market for a properly leftwing party that is also strongly anti-immigration. A lot of AfD voters should probably switch to the BSW logically. But the BSW look too much like a personality cult. And of course the AfD has a lot of establishment backing in Germany, which the BSW doesn't have.

    I wonder how they will take it if they narrowly fail to get 5% (which I think is on balance more likely than not). There could be legal action taken if they think there were any problems with the vote.

    In the runup the BSW were claiming that pollsters which had them on 4 were deliberately falsely putting them below the 5% threshold to suppress their vote, which was bollocks. So they're not averse to a bit of conspiracy theorising.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    viewcode said:

    The lift is out of order
    We are holding a "meet-and-greet" on the ground floor at 10am
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,910
    ohnotnow said:

    What is your use-case? It's failed pretty much every test-case I have.

    And yes, Claude 4 (or the 3.5 'paprika') will be very welcome.
    Literary criticism/editing. It is outstanding. Once you deduce how to prompt it
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    viewcode said:

    We are holding a "meet-and-greet" on the ground floor at 10am
    A bike was stolen from the bike rack last night
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    viewcode said:

    A bike was stolen from the bike rack last night
    The hot water tap in the sink on the second floor is broken. Facilities have been informed.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    viewcode said:

    The hot water tap in the sink on the second floor is broken. Facilities have been informed.
    A reminder is issued that people should lock their pedestals before leaving for the day
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    viewcode said:

    A reminder is issued that people should lock their pedestals before leaving for the day
    Please do not leave unwashed cups and cutlery in the sink. Put them in the spaces provided in the dishwasher
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    Left-over food from the meeting this morning is available in the break-out area on the ground floor. First come, first served!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,675
    edited February 23
    Wow.

    "House democrats know what they are doing"

    "The collapse is coming"


    Mike Sington
    @MikeSington
    ·
    2h
    “It’s over!” James Carville predicts the Trump administration is going to completely collapse in “less than 30 days”. He advises Dems to sit back and let it happen. (Video: SiriusXM/Mediaite)

    https://x.com/MikeSington/status/1893755499851485248

    Edit: Carville says he has NYT piece coming on all this.

    Of course, he did predict a Harris win, so, erm...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,644
    kamski said:

    You'd think there'd be a market for a properly leftwing party that is also strongly anti-immigration. A lot of AfD voters should probably switch to the BSW logically. But the BSW look too much like a personality cult. And of course the AfD has a lot of establishment backing in Germany, which the BSW doesn't have.

    I wonder how they will take it if they narrowly fail to get 5% (which I think is on balance more likely than not). There could be legal action taken if they think there were any problems with the vote.

    In the runup the BSW were claiming that pollsters which had them on 4 were deliberately falsely putting them below the 5% threshold to suppress their vote, which was bollocks. So they're not averse to a bit of conspiracy theorising.
    Not much love lost between Linke and BSW - the Linke spokesman attributing their success to shedding the Wagenknecht wing. But 5 years to the next election is a long time...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    A space is available on the mental health awareness committee. Please contact Elaine if you would like to sit on the committee. Meetings are twice monthly.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    Boardgame night is at 5pm on the first Tuesday on each month
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051

    Wow.

    "House democrats know what they are doing"

    "The collapse is coming"


    Mike Sington
    @MikeSington
    ·
    2h
    “It’s over!” James Carville predicts the Trump administration is going to completely collapse in “less than 30 days”. He advises Dems to sit back and let it happen. (Video: SiriusXM/Mediaite)

    https://x.com/MikeSington/status/1893755499851485248

    Yeah, I don't buy it.

    Trump and Musk are chaotic, but everyone fought too hard and bitter to 'completely collapse', even something has to give from this frenetic beginning.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    Don't forget to wash your hands after eating food containing nuts. Do not open doors before having done so.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    The lift on the third floor has stopped working
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    Period awareness reps will be attending next week.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    The fire alarm test is at 3pm.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,211
    kamski said:

    Genius
    Seems reasonable.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5159866-ultimate-d-boss-move-democratic-senator-rips-musk-email/
    “This is the ultimate d‑‑‑ boss move from Musk – except he isn’t even the boss, he’s just a d‑‑‑,” the Minnesota senator said in the first post of a thread on the social platform X after Musk on Saturday warned federal employees about a new policy requiring them to detail their work in an email.
    “I bet a lot of people have had an experience like this with a bad boss – there’s an email in your inbox on Saturday night saying, ‘Prove to me your worthiness by Monday or else,’” Smith continued in a second post. “I’m on the side of the workers, not the billionaire a‑‑hole bosses.”
    Musk responded to the first post from Smith later Saturday night, asking her, “What did you get done last week?”
    “.@ElonMusk I hate to break it to you but you aren’t my boss. I answer to the people of Minnesota,” Smith replied in another X post Sunday. “But since you bring it up, I spent last week fighting to stop tax breaks for billionaires like you, paid for by defunding health care for moms and babies.”..

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    Anybody in the building after 7pm, please inform security
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,483
    Leon said:

    Literary criticism/editing. It is outstanding. Once you deduce how to prompt it
    I'm surprised it's better than some of the OSS models from last year. And now that it's system prompt has been exposed I guess it'll just get copied (other than the Elon/Trump part). I do fairly little editing, but the techniques developed last year seem to work quite well, irrespective of the model. Maybe I'm missing something?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,152
    edited February 23
    The results by age paint quite a stark picture for the future of Germany. Both the CDU/CSU and SPD are aided by the votes of 70+ pensioners.

    https://x.com/simongerman600/status/1893787066938380708
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    Peter is leaving at the end of next month. The card is next to the files by Andrea's office. Please send contributions to the following account.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051

    The results by age paint quite a stark picture for the future of Germany. Both the CDU/CSU and SPD are aided by the votes of 70+ pensioners.

    https://x.com/simongerman600/status/1893787066938380708

    make policies for the young if you want to be politically relevant in 20 years

    Too many parties are addicted to the easy chasing of the grey vote to do this, as long term decisions might require some pain now. Cannot see many making the choice.

    But inertia will still see many remain in play.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910

    The results by age paint quite a stark picture for the future of Germany. Both the CDU/CSU and SPD are aided by the votes of 70+ pensioners.

    https://x.com/simongerman600/status/1893787066938380708

    This is true in most European countries.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
    viewcode said:

    Peter is leaving at the end of next month. The card is next to the files by Andrea's office. Please send contributions to the following account.

    Is this something to do with Musk?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
    AfD have actually gone up recently from 20.5% to 20.9%.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    Andy_JS said:

    Is this something to do with Musk?
    No. BartholemewRoberts complained about inane emails and gave Janice's missing water bottle as an example. I picked up the hook and ran with it, giving mock examples of inane emails I get at work. I can't go into too much detail without identifying the organisation I work for, so I gave the nonspecific ones. I didn't make up the "period awareness" one.
  • PM announces £200m Grangemouth site support fund
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g0xnnwkppo

    But they couldn't find the fiver for the vaccine plant in Liverpool.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,828
    BSW are getting very close now to hitting 5.0% .

    Given some large cities haven’t reported yet the odds must surely favour them .
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773

    Wow.

    "House democrats know what they are doing"

    "The collapse is coming"


    Mike Sington
    @MikeSington
    ·
    2h
    “It’s over!” James Carville predicts the Trump administration is going to completely collapse in “less than 30 days”. He advises Dems to sit back and let it happen. (Video: SiriusXM/Mediaite)

    https://x.com/MikeSington/status/1893755499851485248

    Edit: Carville says he has NYT piece coming on all this.

    Of course, he did predict a Harris win, so, erm...

    I often find that my triumphant enemies collapse by themselves whilst I do nothing. Happens all the time. I just sit down and they just stab themselves and hit themselves with hammers. 'Mazing

    (narrator: Democrats are bloody useless)
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,163
    nico67 said:

    BSW are getting very close now to hitting 5.0% .

    Given some large cities haven’t reported yet the odds must surely favour them .

    I make it 7 constituencies from the East they should do well in and 48 from the West they won't do so well in. So very roughly calculated, it's still too close to call.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,818

    The results by age paint quite a stark picture for the future of Germany. Both the CDU/CSU and SPD are aided by the votes of 70+ pensioners.

    https://x.com/simongerman600/status/1893787066938380708

    Tomorrow belongs to me.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    BSW 5.03% (after 260/299)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,773
    MikeL said:

    BSW 5.03% (after 260/299)

    Source plz?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,163
    MikeL said:

    BSW 5.03% (after 260/299)

    That's after 4 of the last 7 eastern constituencies dropped. I don't think it's enough for them.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    viewcode said:

    No. BartholemewRoberts complained about inane emails and gave Janice's missing water bottle as an example. I picked up the hook and ran with it, giving mock examples of inane emails I get at work. I can't go into too much detail without identifying the organisation I work for, so I gave the nonspecific ones. I didn't make up the "period awareness" one.
    Mrs Biggles (along with every girlfriend I had in the past) seems perfectly aware of her period without any external help. I had thought that was the norm. Evidently not.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,828
    kamski said:

    That's after 4 of the last 7 eastern constituencies dropped. I don't think it's enough for them.
    Would they expect to do well in Cologne because that hasn’t reported yet ?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,163
    nico67 said:

    Would they expect to do well in Cologne because that hasn’t reported yet ?
    Not especially. Would expect them to do worse here than nationally.
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