Go West! – politicalbetting.com

YouGov's MRP for the 2025 German election shows a strong East/West divide, with the AfD leading in all but two constituencies in the former East Germanyhttps://t.co/9UMT1N9AYW pic.twitter.com/iYR3L1cK2x
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I could have filled the top ten before anyone else showed up.
He who pays the piper I suppose.
Poverty of opportunity?
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/long-take/die-mauer-im-kopf-the-legacy-of-division-in-german-politics/
Two parallel sets of political conversations. Smug centrists in the west, harder left and right in the east. And all amplified by internal migration.
It's a neat map, but the questions it raises are more universal. Smug centrists need to work out what they want to do for their left behind places and people. Those calling for more radical change... what happens when you can't solve the problems satisfactorily either?
https://www.pmlp.gov.lv/en/aliens-non-citizens-passport
The East-West split will unlikely die out and will be a feature in politics for a long, long time. As mentioned in the other thread, the assumptions of the last decades have to be revisited if we are to operate in a multi-polar world. Pax Americana, if it did exist, has gone.
The issue is a brain drain - there’s been meaningful depopulation in large parts of the east outside of Berlin with everyone heading west
Anyway, to @Alphabet_Soup’s point I blame Elizabeth of Bohemia.
Nothing breeds resentment more than being on the receiving end of charity. It's why the Reform areas hate the prosperous SE that pays their pensions and regional subsidies. It's the same in Germany, the AfD resents the prosperous West.
However, it's still a pretty mad thing to run on the front page.
Besides, anyone who has designed a political leaflet will tell you that most of your audience (in this case, non-buyers seeing it on the rack in the shop) get no further than the headline.
It has the Left winning one constituency - also in line with other polling. They need 3 constituencies to qualify for PR seats if they fail to reach the 5% hurdle (as happened last time). A second one should be within reach, but the third would probably need a bit of tactical voting in that constituency. It looks unlikely, but who knows? AIUI MRP is anyway not that accurate in specific individual constituencies, so probably not helping much.
The FDP have zero chance of winning any constituencies, so need to get over 5% nationally. Currently averaging 4% in the polls, and I don't think they will make it.
The BSW are currently averaging 5% in the polls, and seem to have little chance of winning 3 constituencies.
So it looks like (ignoring the one MP from the SSW, who may or may not get reelected), of the current parties in the Bundestag, the FDP and the Left will probably be out. And one new party, the BSW, might get in. If all three of these do get in (pretty unlikely) it makes CDU/CSU + Greens very unlikely to get a majority, and it makes CDU/CSU + SPD quite unlikely to get a majority.
I have to say the map is a bit misleading, only showing which party might have a plurality in each constituency. It doesn't show, for example, that in the latest Bundesland polling for the Bundestag , the SPD has 10% support in Bavaria, considerably lower than their polling in (former East German) Brandenburg (19%) and Meck-Pomm (16%).
And worth noting that the 'new states' - ie former East Germany not including Berlin - has a total population less than the population of Bavaria.
I could write an idiot's guide to the German elections, but not sure I have time
2 trillion euros of charity and there is still a glaring gap in economic prosperity and indeed after a spurt in improvements after they got rid of Communism in the 90s the gap has largely stagnated, despite a large loss in population to the west. Obviously the same is observable in Italy between the North and the South.
Something to bear in mind when people say that a couple of rail lines and a few hundred million in industrial subsidies will do anything for the North, except make it yet more dependent on the South.
Likewise, places like France have seen cities like Lyon and others grow their economies significantly following the arrival of decent connections to the rest of France.
Not sure you can draw any conclusion that investing in infrastructure would be a bad idea in the UK based on this.
Cannot think of any rail or any such great infrastructure investment in Germany since 1989, in fact, was that one of the main criticisms of Merkel, her lack of willingness to invest in new infrastructure to help grow the German economy.
Regions that level up do so not because of subsidies from the centre, but because they have governments that are pro-enterprise and pro-growth. For example, the South and Mountain West of the United States which have closed much of the income gap with the rest of the US since World War II - both those regions DO in fact receive significant federal subsidies, like the North of England or Eastern Germany, but they also both have vigorous entrepreneurial cultures and lighter regulation on such matters as planning (or zoning as Americans call it) in a way that their European counterparts simply do not. That's the crucial factor, not the magnitude of subsidies, many of which at best have small effects and at worst throttle whatever enterprise and initiative survives in the poorer regions.
Another important factor is genuine autonomy in regional government, allowing them to innovate and make mistakes, in a way which is totally alien to us in Britain, but which has let Texas, say, be pro-growth while California happily regulates itself to stagnation.
She described the Nazi rally, at which she proclaimed “I am a Jew-hater”, as “simply Heaven.”
She had the bad taste to have an affair with the Third Reich’s chief pervert, Julius Streicher.
edited to add "federal subsidies, like the North of England or Eastern Germany" makes it sound like the north of england has had the same fiscal support as East Germany since 1991, which is surely not even close to right?
https://x.com/realjakebroe/status/1880481541631144105
Meanwhile, there’s six Russian O&G facilities currently on fire, and they seem incapable of defending anything closer than 1,000km from Ukraine against drones and missiles.
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1880457465474740662
There are also elections in Canada later in the year as mentioned which the Conservatives look set to win comfortably though whichever of Freeland or Carney replaces Trudeau as Liberal leader and PM will hope to narrow the gap by
polling day.
Finally Australia has its Federal election later this year too. Currently it looks neck and neck between the Coalition and governing Labor party but with the Teal Independents likely to hold the balance of power
Some quick thoughts in audio form about the betting markets ahead of the F1 2025 season:
https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-betting-odds/
Those who had applied for general admission tickets, they’re mostly going to be SOL, with only limited space in a couple of large indoor venues being opened for the day. I don’t see any provision for outdoor big screens so far, so there will be an awful lot of people there who won’t get to see anything. Not that you would ever see much from being half a mile down the Mall anyway!
Top twenty most deprived regions in the UK
Tendring- around St Osyth and Seawick
Blackpool- the Area near The Central Pier
Blackpool- Around the Promenade by the North Pier
Thanet- In Cliftonville West
Blackpool- in the Region by the South Pier
Tendring- in the Area by Clacton-On-The-Sea
Blackpool- in the Region That Falls between Waterloo Road and St Chad’s Station
Coventry- In the Area around Hillmorton Road In Henly
Blackpool- In Woolman Road As Well As Clinton Avenue
Waveney- In the Location of the South Pier in Lowestoft
Blackpool-Around the Cookson Street
Kingston upon Hull- near St John’s Grove
North East Lincolnshire- In the Area That Is Around Oxford Street in Grimsby
Burnley- The Area That Falls On Tay Street and Howard Street
Burnley- The Region That Lies Between Belvedere Road and the Church Street
Mansfield- In Sandy Lane
Blackpool- In Carshalton Road As Well As Clevedon Road
Blackburn with Darwen- The Region of Wensley Fold
Great Yarmouth- By the Seafront
https://livingwagecommission.org.uk/poorest-uk-places/
Of course the Anglobrits will insist this is down to the generosity and wisdom of successive UK governments, whose consistent qualities everyone can agree have been generosity and wisdom.
https://bsky.app/profile/robertsaunders.bsky.social/post/3lajb4r4s422s
https://youtu.be/1ykqPa4MgWg?si=8Wsnr11uQBIFzRgp
2) Chicago is Sanctuary City. In American terms, this means that the city authorities don’t cooperate with ICE at an official level. So a local cop reporting an illegal to ICE will actually be disciplined for breaking the rules of his/her job. Stepping up deportations from Chicago will entail a big fight between Federal and local authorities. Grist to the MAGA mill.
The Overton window on deportation has really shifted in the US. According to a poll the other day, half support mass deportation of everyone illegal.
Even a few years ago that would have been about 10%
The Sanctuary City thing is a response to this.
I'm old enough to remember when every 'centrist dad' idolised her as the personification of 'good government'.
I thought it was a rural holiday area.
Am I outdated to think that many of the shitty jobs are done by illegal immigrants where their removal will directly affect them by removal/reduction of services and price increases as staffing costs shoot up through reduced supply. Or is there a surfeit of documented people willing to do grim jobs for peanuts?
I'll have to go see Sandy Lane, Mansfield.
Its the only traditional industrial area on the list.
It looks okay here:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Sandy+Ln,+Mansfield/@53.1464853,-1.1849489,503m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m6!3m5!1s0x4879bdc018520ac3:0x293a76b078e8d817!8m2!3d53.1464821!4d-1.182374!16s/g/1td09glt?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI1MDExNS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw==
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ceq9917rl18o
The difference in investment N/S (especially London) in transport is stark.
Basic politics - make your opponents publicly oppose. The Sanctuary City stuff is largely below the everyday news radar - and it’s designed to be.
Build roads and investment follows.
London doesn't benefit from new roads therefore road building isn't approved of.
From memory, the only thing I've praised her for was being a political survivor. Until she was not.
A common thing is that eating out used to be cheap in many parts of the US. Since COVID, the cost has rocketed. Which is the kind of inflation that really, really gets noticed.
Ironically, “AI” is coming for many of the shitty jobs.
Something to understand about the general immigration argument in the US. We discuss whether immigrants have suppressed wages in the U.K.
In the US, companies have bought in workers on H1B visas, and forced their American workers to train them up. With the explicit and announced plan of sending the immigrant workers back to India etc - fire the current workforce. Yes, that in-your-face.
Similar stuff happened with NAFTA and the Southern border.
Such practices have fuelled… well, you can fill in the rest.
We need to invest in alternatives to relieve the pressure, and give options.
Julian Jessop
@julianHjessop
"Are the IMF's latest forecasts really good news for Rachel Reeves?"
ICYMI, here's a short blog explaining why it was a mistake for Labour supporters to draw so much attention to those IMF numbers... 🤔
https://julianhjessop.com/2025/01/17/are-the-imfs-latest-forecasts-really-good-news-for-rachel-reeves/
https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1880538382704726022
Wheat and cattle don’t use lots of cheap labour.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/07/ten-reasons-angela-merkel-germany-chancellor-world-most-powerful-woman
It praises Merkel for getting ride of nuclear power, defence cuts and:
Merkel has scored points for her foreign policy endeavours, most recently ensuring that she is in constant dialogue with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, over the Crimea dispute. Thanks to her East German upbringing she knows Russian culture well and speaks Russian to an excellent standard, and while she is no fan of Putin the person (he reportedly lets his labrador loose around her, despite knowing of her fear of dogs), she sees it as her duty to keep communicating with him. She has emphasised to other western leaders that pressurising him too much could push Russia into political and economic chaos, which would be good neither for Russia, Germany nor Europe.
Sometimes I despair of MPs and their devotion to concepts they do not understand.
They're just less bad than they are for France, Germany and Italy.
https://mapmaker.cdrc.ac.uk/#/index-of-multiple-deprivation?d=11110000&m=imdh19_dc&lon=-1.1814&lat=53.1464&zoom=15
So something funny is going on.
I'm listed as being the second most deprived decile, too. Although the other end of my road is in the 3rd most deprived, just one house beyond the other side (in the estate which is worse im) is in the 3rd most deprived too, and 100m away at the other end of a footpath is in the 2nd least deprived.
Artefacts of calculations with age of housing stock and ward boundaries, I would say, plus they may have drilled down to a single data item in the scorecard. Perhaps, given that the website listed is the "living wage something".
(BRACE)
Austin Powers: No, actually, I'm English.
Cowboy: Oh... I'm sorry.
Is that why you're proposing it?