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Go West! – politicalbetting.com

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  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,352
    edited January 18
    Nigelb said:

    He got the photo, but hardly the one he'd have wanted.

    German Foreign Minister Baerbock left a government meeting, refusing a photo with Scholz after his decision to block the allocation of a new aid package to Ukraine, — Bild
    https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1880546218193064084

    Instant classic.

    That's a strange one.

    Here's the uncropped one from the thread. She's not exactly leaving the meeting.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,762
    Rather depressing youtube from my favourite MAGA youtuber. We keep pretending that US ambitions towards Canada will be resolved peacefully and by consent. It may be that it will be resolved by force nonconsensually in a way that leaves Canada very different and lessened. We have not considered the US an enemy for two centuries. I don't know how we will cope.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgJQzIW2pqs
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,184
    viewcode said:

    Rather depressing youtube from my favourite MAGA youtuber. We keep pretending that US ambitions towards Canada will be resolved peacefully and by consent. It may be that it will be resolved by force nonconsensually in a way that leaves Canada very different and lessened. We have not considered the US an enemy for two centuries. I don't know how we will cope.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgJQzIW2pqs

    Thanks for flagging up the video. Personally I don't believe Trump will follow through on any of these threats against friendly nations to the US like Canada. Hopefully I'm not wrong.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    edited January 18
    'Former Presidents Obama, Clinton and Bush won't attend Trump's inaugural lunch.
    The three former presidents will attend the swearing-in ceremony earlier in the day...The former first ladies will also attend the swearing-in ceremony except for Michelle Obama, according to the Obamas’ office. '

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/obama-clinton-bush-skip-trump-inauguration-lunch-rcna187899
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,369
    edited January 18
    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    Rather depressing youtube from my favourite MAGA youtuber. We keep pretending that US ambitions towards Canada will be resolved peacefully and by consent. It may be that it will be resolved by force nonconsensually in a way that leaves Canada very different and lessened. We have not considered the US an enemy for two centuries. I don't know how we will cope.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgJQzIW2pqs

    Thanks for flagging up the video. Personally I don't believe Trump will follow through on any of these threats against friendly nations to the US like Canada. Hopefully I'm not wrong.
    Zero chance he attacks (physically) a close ally. However popular he is, his own party (even now), and the establishment in his own country, would not tolerate it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    Netanyahu now on two seat majority says FT tonight.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,762
    biggles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    Rather depressing youtube from my favourite MAGA youtuber. We keep pretending that US ambitions towards Canada will be resolved peacefully and by consent. It may be that it will be resolved by force nonconsensually in a way that leaves Canada very different and lessened. We have not considered the US an enemy for two centuries. I don't know how we will cope.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgJQzIW2pqs

    Thanks for flagging up the video. Personally I don't believe Trump will follow through on any of these threats against friendly nations to the US like Canada. Hopefully I'm not wrong.
    Zero chance he attacks (physically) a close ally. However popular he is, his own party (even now), and the establishment in his own country, would not tolerate it.
    He doesn't have to. He just exerts economic force until they kneel. What's stopping him?
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,265
    edited January 19

    Cookie said:

    .

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    One weekend, it will be the straightforward delights of Skegness seafront; the next, the flashy private beach clubs of Dubai.

    Richard Tice, deputy leader of Reform UK and its MP for Boston and Skegness, is splitting his time not just between his Lincolnshire ­constituency and the House of Commons, but is also spending time 3,500 miles away in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). “We are spreading our international reach,” he said.

    The Observer has established that some months ago his partner, the journalist Isabel Oakeshott, moved out to Dubai with her children.

    Another couple of Brexiteers have exited. What a surprise...
    Along with everyone else who can afford to since Sir Vortex of Shit rode in to save the country (the country being Mauritius - should have checked the small print).
    I couldn't give two hours about millionaires leaving the country. They don't pay their fair share of tax anyway. They can eff off.
    Yes but they go shopping and hire staff and take taxis and all the rest of it. There's more to the economy than income tax.
    Ah, the "Trickle Down Economy"

    Which usually means they are pissing on us.
    Rich people spend money.

    Your spurious denial of this sounds like sour grapes because they're choosing en masse to spend it in other places than Starmer's 1984 theme park.
    The US has repeatedly tried trickle down and it has not worked. Most of the money just accrues in the multimillionaires’ bank accounts.
    Money people put in banks doesn't just sit in a box. It enables banks to lend to other people, thereby jeeping interest rates low. Or it gets inveated in businesses, thereby providing jobs. That million pounds in the bank isn't lazy.
    It dose mean the whims of the wealthiest are put far ahead of those without so much. IMO high inequality distorts an economy towards luxe goods and services and makes a society more brittle and over reliant on serving the monied.

    Its easy to say: well without the wealthiest you will be worse off, but would we? The productive capacity of the UK would not change but the demands on it would.
    The truth or otherwise of your last sentence depends on what the wealthy do. If they are just rent seeking, then we wouldn't miss them much.

    On the other hand, if they are entrepreneurs bring people together and investing money to build businesses, driving them away would be disastrous.

    I'm not in the top 10%, never mind top 1%, but I run a small business and am substantially wealthier than my employees. The thing is - the business wouldn't exist without me - not least because I remortgaged my house to provide working capital and then worked for 18 months without taking a penny out so get the show on the road. The whole is far more than the sum of it's parts, and I've added to the wealth of my employees (and suppliers) as well as paid a lot of tax through running that business. Without me, or someone like me using their money as seed capital none of that wealth would have been created.

    The same sort of thing will be true of some of the top 1%, and if you drive them abroad you'll miss them terribly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    biggles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    Rather depressing youtube from my favourite MAGA youtuber. We keep pretending that US ambitions towards Canada will be resolved peacefully and by consent. It may be that it will be resolved by force nonconsensually in a way that leaves Canada very different and lessened. We have not considered the US an enemy for two centuries. I don't know how we will cope.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgJQzIW2pqs

    Thanks for flagging up the video. Personally I don't believe Trump will follow through on any of these threats against friendly nations to the US like Canada. Hopefully I'm not wrong.
    Zero chance he attacks (physically) a close ally. However popular he is, his own party (even now), and the establishment in his own country, would not tolerate it.
    Indeed, almost certainly Trump would be removed by his Cabinet and replaced by Vance as POTUS if he ordered a military attack on Canada and refused to back down.

    Just 25% of Americans want Canada to join the USA with 49% opposed and 90% of Canadians are opposed too

    https://angusreid.org/canada-51st-state-trump/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544

    ‪Sunder Katwala (sundersays)‬ ‪@sundersays.bsky.social‬
    ·
    2h
    Latest Bild on Sunday German election poll shows little change in this year's early skirmishes. Election on Feb 23rd is four Sundays away now.

    CDU: 29% (-1)
    AfD: 21% (-1)
    SDP: 16%
    Green: 13%
    BSW: 7% (+1)
    FDP: 5% (+1)
    Linke: 4% (+1)
    Others: 5% (-1)
    Changes since Jan 11th

    https://bsky.app/profile/sundersays.bsky.social/post/3lg2argeg722i
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,369
    viewcode said:

    biggles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    Rather depressing youtube from my favourite MAGA youtuber. We keep pretending that US ambitions towards Canada will be resolved peacefully and by consent. It may be that it will be resolved by force nonconsensually in a way that leaves Canada very different and lessened. We have not considered the US an enemy for two centuries. I don't know how we will cope.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgJQzIW2pqs

    Thanks for flagging up the video. Personally I don't believe Trump will follow through on any of these threats against friendly nations to the US like Canada. Hopefully I'm not wrong.
    Zero chance he attacks (physically) a close ally. However popular he is, his own party (even now), and the establishment in his own country, would not tolerate it.
    He doesn't have to. He just exerts economic force until they kneel. What's stopping him?
    The US cannot do that without causing a recession at home. And, financially, the rest of the western world is bigger if it really went mad. We’re so used to being wowed by its military power that we forget it’s less dominant economically.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    HYUFD said:

    'Former Presidents Obama, Clinton and Bush won't attend Trump's inaugural lunch.
    The three former presidents will attend the swearing-in ceremony earlier in the day...The former first ladies will also attend the swearing-in ceremony except for Michelle Obama, according to the Obamas’ office. '

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/obama-clinton-bush-skip-trump-inauguration-lunch-rcna187899

    Obamas on the verge of divorce?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,184


    ‪Sunder Katwala (sundersays)‬ ‪@sundersays.bsky.social‬
    ·
    2h
    Latest Bild on Sunday German election poll shows little change in this year's early skirmishes. Election on Feb 23rd is four Sundays away now.

    CDU: 29% (-1)
    AfD: 21% (-1)
    SDP: 16%
    Green: 13%
    BSW: 7% (+1)
    FDP: 5% (+1)
    Linke: 4% (+1)
    Others: 5% (-1)
    Changes since Jan 11th

    https://bsky.app/profile/sundersays.bsky.social/post/3lg2argeg722i

    It's amazing how often the FDP are almost exactly on the 5% threshold at German elections over the years.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    HYUFD said:

    'Former Presidents Obama, Clinton and Bush won't attend Trump's inaugural lunch.
    The three former presidents will attend the swearing-in ceremony earlier in the day...The former first ladies will also attend the swearing-in ceremony except for Michelle Obama, according to the Obamas’ office. '

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/obama-clinton-bush-skip-trump-inauguration-lunch-rcna187899

    They can't face having to stand up between each course and dance to 'YMCA'.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,854

    ohnotnow said:

    maxh said:

    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    One weekend, it will be the straightforward delights of Skegness seafront; the next, the flashy private beach clubs of Dubai.

    Richard Tice, deputy leader of Reform UK and its MP for Boston and Skegness, is splitting his time not just between his Lincolnshire ­constituency and the House of Commons, but is also spending time 3,500 miles away in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). “We are spreading our international reach,” he said.

    The Observer has established that some months ago his partner, the journalist Isabel Oakeshott, moved out to Dubai with her children.

    Another couple of Brexiteers have exited. What a surprise...
    Along with everyone else who can afford to since Sir Vortex of Shit rode in to save the country (the country being Mauritius - should have checked the small print).
    I couldn't give two hours about millionaires leaving the country. They don't pay their fair share of tax anyway. They can eff off.
    Eh? The top 1% of earners pay 29% of income tax. We are in deep, deep shit if they go.
    What percentage of income do the top 1% "earn" greater than or less than 29%?
    In 2024-2025, the top one per cent of income tax payers earned 13.3 per cent of total income and paid 28.2 per cent of income tax.

    The top ten per cent of income tax payers earned 35.1 per cent of total income in 2024-25 and paid 60.2 per cent of income tax
    How closely does the top 1% of earners correspond to the top 1% of income tax payers? Without that knowledge it feels like you are just describing one end of a bell curve.
    I went to https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/income-tax-liabilities-by-income-range

    I extracted some data and got this


    Could you paste in the data? My eyesight is so bad I can hardly see the image.
    As CSV

    Numbers of Income Tax payers are in thousands. Amounts are in millions unless otherwise stated.,,,,,
    Range of total income (lower limit),Total number of Income Tax payers,Total income,Total Income Tax liability,Average rate of Income Tax,Average amount of Income Tax in £
    "£12,570 ","2,790","38,200",620,1.60%,222
    "£15,000 ","5,580","97,200","4,800",4.90%,860
    "£20,000 ","10,100","250,000","22,600",9%,"2,230"
    "£30,000 ","11,000","422,000","52,400",12.40%,"4,780"
    "£50,000 ","6,110","401,000","75,600",18.90%,"12,400"
    "£100,000 ","1,010","120,000","35,200",29.40%,"35,000"
    "£150,000 ",357,"61,700","21,100",34.30%,"59,100"
    "£200,000 ",336,"96,300","36,600",38%,"109,000"
    "£500,000 ",59,"39,800","16,300",40.90%,"277,000"
    "£1,000,000 ",20,"27,800","11,400",40.90%,"556,000"
    "£2,000,000+",11,"61,300","24,500",40%,"2,250,000"

    You should be able to import that into Excel/Libre Office
    Eh? There must have been more than 11 income-tax payers on more than £2 million. Denise Coates and ten footballers, who are paid PAYE.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147

    ohnotnow said:

    maxh said:

    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    One weekend, it will be the straightforward delights of Skegness seafront; the next, the flashy private beach clubs of Dubai.

    Richard Tice, deputy leader of Reform UK and its MP for Boston and Skegness, is splitting his time not just between his Lincolnshire ­constituency and the House of Commons, but is also spending time 3,500 miles away in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). “We are spreading our international reach,” he said.

    The Observer has established that some months ago his partner, the journalist Isabel Oakeshott, moved out to Dubai with her children.

    Another couple of Brexiteers have exited. What a surprise...
    Along with everyone else who can afford to since Sir Vortex of Shit rode in to save the country (the country being Mauritius - should have checked the small print).
    I couldn't give two hours about millionaires leaving the country. They don't pay their fair share of tax anyway. They can eff off.
    Eh? The top 1% of earners pay 29% of income tax. We are in deep, deep shit if they go.
    What percentage of income do the top 1% "earn" greater than or less than 29%?
    In 2024-2025, the top one per cent of income tax payers earned 13.3 per cent of total income and paid 28.2 per cent of income tax.

    The top ten per cent of income tax payers earned 35.1 per cent of total income in 2024-25 and paid 60.2 per cent of income tax
    How closely does the top 1% of earners correspond to the top 1% of income tax payers? Without that knowledge it feels like you are just describing one end of a bell curve.
    I went to https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/income-tax-liabilities-by-income-range

    I extracted some data and got this


    Could you paste in the data? My eyesight is so bad I can hardly see the image.
    As CSV

    Numbers of Income Tax payers are in thousands. Amounts are in millions unless otherwise stated.,,,,,
    Range of total income (lower limit),Total number of Income Tax payers,Total income,Total Income Tax liability,Average rate of Income Tax,Average amount of Income Tax in £
    "£12,570 ","2,790","38,200",620,1.60%,222
    "£15,000 ","5,580","97,200","4,800",4.90%,860
    "£20,000 ","10,100","250,000","22,600",9%,"2,230"
    "£30,000 ","11,000","422,000","52,400",12.40%,"4,780"
    "£50,000 ","6,110","401,000","75,600",18.90%,"12,400"
    "£100,000 ","1,010","120,000","35,200",29.40%,"35,000"
    "£150,000 ",357,"61,700","21,100",34.30%,"59,100"
    "£200,000 ",336,"96,300","36,600",38%,"109,000"
    "£500,000 ",59,"39,800","16,300",40.90%,"277,000"
    "£1,000,000 ",20,"27,800","11,400",40.90%,"556,000"
    "£2,000,000+",11,"61,300","24,500",40%,"2,250,000"

    You should be able to import that into Excel/Libre Office
    Eh? There must have been more than 11 income-tax payers on more than £2 million. Denise Coates and ten footballers, who are paid PAYE.
    11,000?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,222
    edited January 19

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    One weekend, it will be the straightforward delights of Skegness seafront; the next, the flashy private beach clubs of Dubai.

    Richard Tice, deputy leader of Reform UK and its MP for Boston and Skegness, is splitting his time not just between his Lincolnshire ­constituency and the House of Commons, but is also spending time 3,500 miles away in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). “We are spreading our international reach,” he said.

    The Observer has established that some months ago his partner, the journalist Isabel Oakeshott, moved out to Dubai with her children.

    Another couple of Brexiteers have exited. What a surprise...
    Along with everyone else who can afford to since Sir Vortex of Shit rode in to save the country (the country being Mauritius - should have checked the small print).
    I couldn't give two hours about millionaires leaving the country. They don't pay their fair share of tax anyway. They can eff off.
    Yes but they go shopping and hire staff and take taxis and all the rest of it. There's more to the economy than income tax.
    Scraps from their table
    I don’t get this attitude. They are surely a net positive to the exchequer. If anything, more of them should live in the UK.
    There's a balancing act in terms not just giving very rich people any generous policy they want - there are surely more than enough ways for rich people to avoid paying tax for a start - and being counterproductive by driving off usefully high tax contributors.

    I have no way of knowing when we've gotten that balance wrong in advance, since rich people moan about any taxation, just as poorer people do, and economists generally seem to be in the business of reading tea leaves.

    But if we were in a generally decent economic state we're probably do better at retaining millionaires even if we raised taxes on them. I mean, until recently super rich people and companies were putting up with high tax California?

    We're nowhere near in their league, admittedly.
    Super rich people in California were (and are) not paying much tax. This is because the US tax code has enough allowances, exceptions and loop holes that paying tax is practically optional.

    The UK has much, much less of this.
    Our loopholes are different - in particular, if you're British, you can dodge personal tax on foreign income by leaving the country for 183 or more days/year. As an American citizen, for no good reason, you're still supposed to cough up to Uncle Sam even if you've never set foot in the US or used any US government services at all.

    On that, at least, we are much more logical and civilised than the Americans.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,106

    ohnotnow said:

    maxh said:

    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    One weekend, it will be the straightforward delights of Skegness seafront; the next, the flashy private beach clubs of Dubai.

    Richard Tice, deputy leader of Reform UK and its MP for Boston and Skegness, is splitting his time not just between his Lincolnshire ­constituency and the House of Commons, but is also spending time 3,500 miles away in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). “We are spreading our international reach,” he said.

    The Observer has established that some months ago his partner, the journalist Isabel Oakeshott, moved out to Dubai with her children.

    Another couple of Brexiteers have exited. What a surprise...
    Along with everyone else who can afford to since Sir Vortex of Shit rode in to save the country (the country being Mauritius - should have checked the small print).
    I couldn't give two hours about millionaires leaving the country. They don't pay their fair share of tax anyway. They can eff off.
    Eh? The top 1% of earners pay 29% of income tax. We are in deep, deep shit if they go.
    What percentage of income do the top 1% "earn" greater than or less than 29%?
    In 2024-2025, the top one per cent of income tax payers earned 13.3 per cent of total income and paid 28.2 per cent of income tax.

    The top ten per cent of income tax payers earned 35.1 per cent of total income in 2024-25 and paid 60.2 per cent of income tax
    How closely does the top 1% of earners correspond to the top 1% of income tax payers? Without that knowledge it feels like you are just describing one end of a bell curve.
    I went to https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/income-tax-liabilities-by-income-range

    I extracted some data and got this


    Could you paste in the data? My eyesight is so bad I can hardly see the image.
    As CSV

    Numbers of Income Tax payers are in thousands. Amounts are in millions unless otherwise stated.,,,,,
    Range of total income (lower limit),Total number of Income Tax payers,Total income,Total Income Tax liability,Average rate of Income Tax,Average amount of Income Tax in £
    "£12,570 ","2,790","38,200",620,1.60%,222
    "£15,000 ","5,580","97,200","4,800",4.90%,860
    "£20,000 ","10,100","250,000","22,600",9%,"2,230"
    "£30,000 ","11,000","422,000","52,400",12.40%,"4,780"
    "£50,000 ","6,110","401,000","75,600",18.90%,"12,400"
    "£100,000 ","1,010","120,000","35,200",29.40%,"35,000"
    "£150,000 ",357,"61,700","21,100",34.30%,"59,100"
    "£200,000 ",336,"96,300","36,600",38%,"109,000"
    "£500,000 ",59,"39,800","16,300",40.90%,"277,000"
    "£1,000,000 ",20,"27,800","11,400",40.90%,"556,000"
    "£2,000,000+",11,"61,300","24,500",40%,"2,250,000"

    You should be able to import that into Excel/Libre Office
    Eh? There must have been more than 11 income-tax payers on more than £2 million. Denise Coates and ten footballers, who are paid PAYE.
    The first line in the data

    "Numbers of Income Tax payers are in thousands. Amounts are in millions unless otherwise stated."

    This is how the data was formatted in the government data set.

    That's 11 thousand people who make more than £2m a year.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,184
    Just noticed that an Australian general election is due by 17th May this year.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Australian_federal_election
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    Reform deputy leader splits his time between Skegness and Dubai where his partner lives reports Observer.

    Why are Labour not making mincemeat of these 'we're your voice against the global elite' charlatans???

    At least Anderson still lives in his former mining town.


  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,106
    Fishing said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    One weekend, it will be the straightforward delights of Skegness seafront; the next, the flashy private beach clubs of Dubai.

    Richard Tice, deputy leader of Reform UK and its MP for Boston and Skegness, is splitting his time not just between his Lincolnshire ­constituency and the House of Commons, but is also spending time 3,500 miles away in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). “We are spreading our international reach,” he said.

    The Observer has established that some months ago his partner, the journalist Isabel Oakeshott, moved out to Dubai with her children.

    Another couple of Brexiteers have exited. What a surprise...
    Along with everyone else who can afford to since Sir Vortex of Shit rode in to save the country (the country being Mauritius - should have checked the small print).
    I couldn't give two hours about millionaires leaving the country. They don't pay their fair share of tax anyway. They can eff off.
    Yes but they go shopping and hire staff and take taxis and all the rest of it. There's more to the economy than income tax.
    Scraps from their table
    I don’t get this attitude. They are surely a net positive to the exchequer. If anything, more of them should live in the UK.
    There's a balancing act in terms not just giving very rich people any generous policy they want - there are surely more than enough ways for rich people to avoid paying tax for a start - and being counterproductive by driving off usefully high tax contributors.

    I have no way of knowing when we've gotten that balance wrong in advance, since rich people moan about any taxation, just as poorer people do, and economists generally seem to be in the business of reading tea leaves.

    But if we were in a generally decent economic state we're probably do better at retaining millionaires even if we raised taxes on them. I mean, until recently super rich people and companies were putting up with high tax California?

    We're nowhere near in their league, admittedly.
    Super rich people in California were (and are) not paying much tax. This is because the US tax code has enough allowances, exceptions and loop holes that paying tax is practically optional.

    The UK has much, much less of this.
    Our loopholes are different - in particular, if you're British, you can dodge personal tax on foreign income by leaving the country for 183 or more days/year. As an American citizen, for no good reason, you're still supposed to cough up to Uncle Sam even if you've never set foot in the US or used any US government services at all.

    On that, at least, we are much more logical and civilised than the Americans.
    Before the GOP went mad, they actually got behind (briefly) the idea of flattening the US tax system. Bin the whole tax code, set 2-3 rates and a personal allowance.

    Bill Clinton was horrified - "But it would throw hundreds of thousands of lawyers and accountants out of work!"

    Politically impossible, of course - everyone has exemptions they want to keep. Even people on a regular income.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    edited January 19
    Bannon on Musk: 'Once I convince him to be a populist nationalist and not a technofeudalist globalist, we'll be fine.'

    (GB News).

    Are even 1% of GB News viewers able to understand WTF nuance is he is on about?

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,184
    "Bring back paternalism for the mentally ill
    Small government is not the answer

    Stephen Eide"

    https://unherd.com/2025/01/bring-back-paternalism-for-the-mentally-ill/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912

    Fishing said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    One weekend, it will be the straightforward delights of Skegness seafront; the next, the flashy private beach clubs of Dubai.

    Richard Tice, deputy leader of Reform UK and its MP for Boston and Skegness, is splitting his time not just between his Lincolnshire ­constituency and the House of Commons, but is also spending time 3,500 miles away in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). “We are spreading our international reach,” he said.

    The Observer has established that some months ago his partner, the journalist Isabel Oakeshott, moved out to Dubai with her children.

    Another couple of Brexiteers have exited. What a surprise...
    Along with everyone else who can afford to since Sir Vortex of Shit rode in to save the country (the country being Mauritius - should have checked the small print).
    I couldn't give two hours about millionaires leaving the country. They don't pay their fair share of tax anyway. They can eff off.
    Yes but they go shopping and hire staff and take taxis and all the rest of it. There's more to the economy than income tax.
    Scraps from their table
    I don’t get this attitude. They are surely a net positive to the exchequer. If anything, more of them should live in the UK.
    There's a balancing act in terms not just giving very rich people any generous policy they want - there are surely more than enough ways for rich people to avoid paying tax for a start - and being counterproductive by driving off usefully high tax contributors.

    I have no way of knowing when we've gotten that balance wrong in advance, since rich people moan about any taxation, just as poorer people do, and economists generally seem to be in the business of reading tea leaves.

    But if we were in a generally decent economic state we're probably do better at retaining millionaires even if we raised taxes on them. I mean, until recently super rich people and companies were putting up with high tax California?

    We're nowhere near in their league, admittedly.
    Super rich people in California were (and are) not paying much tax. This is because the US tax code has enough allowances, exceptions and loop holes that paying tax is practically optional.

    The UK has much, much less of this.
    Our loopholes are different - in particular, if you're British, you can dodge personal tax on foreign income by leaving the country for 183 or more days/year. As an American citizen, for no good reason, you're still supposed to cough up to Uncle Sam even if you've never set foot in the US or used any US government services at all.

    On that, at least, we are much more logical and civilised than the Americans.
    Before the GOP went mad, they actually got behind (briefly) the idea of flattening the US tax system. Bin the whole tax code, set 2-3 rates and a personal allowance.

    Bill Clinton was horrified - "But it would throw hundreds of thousands of lawyers and accountants out of work!"

    Politically impossible, of course - everyone has exemptions they want to keep. Even people on a regular income.
    Every tax break is a tax burden for someone else.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,184
    Possibly not music to the Democrats' ears.

    "Support for Trump’s Policies Exceeds Support for Trump
    A new poll found the public is sympathetic to the president-elect’s plans to deport migrants and reduce America’s presence overseas."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/18/us/politics/trump-policies-immigration-tariffs-economy.html
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,666
    Carnyx said:

    boulay said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Trump administration to begin deportation of illegal immigrants on day one starting in Chicago

    I thought Elon Musk lived in Texas?
    1) ICE is deporting immigrants all the time. Every single day. Will there actually be a change?
    2) Chicago is Sanctuary City. In American terms, this means that the city authorities don’t cooperate with ICE at an official level. So a local cop reporting an illegal to ICE will actually be disciplined for breaking the rules of his/her job. Stepping up deportations from Chicago will entail a big fight between Federal and local authorities. Grist to the MAGA mill.

    The Overton window on deportation has really shifted in the US. According to a poll the other day, half support mass deportation of everyone illegal.

    Even a few years ago that would have been about 10%

    The Sanctuary City thing is a response to this.
    Will there be tears about not being able to get staff to wash dishes in hotels and restaurants, a shortage of short order and fast food cooks, the lack of domestic cleaners, prices of legal gardeners going through the roof and crops not getting picked in time.

    Am I outdated to think that many of the shitty jobs are done by illegal immigrants where their removal will directly affect them by removal/reduction of services and price increases as staffing costs shoot up through reduced supply. Or is there a surfeit of documented people willing to do grim jobs for peanuts?
    Unknown on most of that. Staffing costs in the US have already gone through the roof. Driving inflation in food and other everyday items.

    A common thing is that eating out used to be cheap in many parts of the US. Since COVID, the cost has rocketed. Which is the kind of inflation that really, really gets noticed.

    Ironically, “AI” is coming for many of the shitty jobs.

    Something to understand about the general immigration argument in the US. We discuss whether immigrants have suppressed wages in the U.K.

    In the US, companies have bought in workers on H1B visas, and forced their American workers to train them up. With the explicit and announced plan of sending the immigrant workers back to India etc - fire the current workforce. Yes, that in-your-face.

    Similar stuff happened with NAFTA and the Southern border.


    Such practices have fuelled… well, you can fill in the rest.
    Hang on, I don't understand your para 5. Bring in workers on H1B, train them,. send them home?
    Outsourcing IT jobs on Indian wages
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 125
    edited January 19
    Driver said:

    MattW said:

    Battlebus said:

    MattW said:

    Trump team is questioning civil servants at National Security Council about commitment to his agenda

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Incoming senior Trump administration officials have begun questioning career civil servants who work on the White House National Security Council about who they voted for in the 2024 election, their political contributions and whether they have made social media posts that could be considered incriminating by President-elect Donald Trump’s team, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter.

    At least some of these nonpolitical employees have begun packing up their belongings since being asked about their loyalty to Trump — after they had earlier been given indications that they would be asked to stay on at the NSC in the new administration, the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive personnel matters.

    https://apnews.com/article/trump-biden-nsc-loyalty-waltz-21913da0464f472cb9fef314fed488e5

    That's Modi or Erdogan playbook - apply a personal loyalty test to the professional civil service, replacing best advice with what the boss wants to hear.

    Have you read Project 2025?

    "Make federal bureaucrats more accountable to the democratically elected President and Congress" Note President first - Congress second - Constitution?

    https://www.project2025.org/
    I'm familiar with that - yes. As you say - problematic.

    Issue 1 - Trump won't be following his claimed intentions, which the 48.7% (or whatever it was) of the vote. Indeed, he publicly played down Project 2025, and his voters swallowed it.

    Issue 2 - Removal of the people who are there to be his expert advisors will prevent him implementing his policy. It is normal process for the NSC staff to work for

    He's building himself a civil service of yes men, who won't tell him when he's bullshitting or proposing something illegal or unconstitutional - leaving aside that the Supreme Court is already full of yes men who have rewritten parts of the constitution.

    Which is, as I say, the Modi or Erdogan playbook - build a semi-dictatorship by subverting the democracy.
    Whilst that's true, isn't it appropriate for the bureaucrats to be responsible to the President first, as they form part of the Executive branch?
    Project2025 is built on the idea of the Unitary theory of the Executive. The Supreme Court judgment went some way to supporting this as the ground was laid in the first Trump term. The second Trump term is all about getting placemen into the lower tiers to distort or disrupt those that come after. Start at page 43


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unitary_executive_theory

    https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,352
    edited January 19
    viewcode said:

    Rather depressing youtube from my favourite MAGA youtuber. We keep pretending that US ambitions towards Canada will be resolved peacefully and by consent. It may be that it will be resolved by force nonconsensually in a way that leaves Canada very different and lessened. We have not considered the US an enemy for two centuries. I don't know how we will cope.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgJQzIW2pqs

    He's quite a long way down the rabbit hole, isn't he? (You know that I am somewhat unsympathetic towards MAGA :wink: ).

    "Canada is to the USA what Greenland is to Denmark", and some exaggerations afaics about Chinese influence, eg in Greenland where most of their projects seem to have stopped.

    He comes across to me like a throwback to either c1900 or c1925, being quite happy to invade anybody's country if they won't do what they are told when asked.

    I also listened to his video framing abolitionists as the cause of the Civil War, where he also attempts to triangulate the USA impact on Native Americans.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53kegJNxWA4
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,677
    Foxy said:

    Cookie said:

    .

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    One weekend, it will be the straightforward delights of Skegness seafront; the next, the flashy private beach clubs of Dubai.

    Richard Tice, deputy leader of Reform UK and its MP for Boston and Skegness, is splitting his time not just between his Lincolnshire ­constituency and the House of Commons, but is also spending time 3,500 miles away in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). “We are spreading our international reach,” he said.

    The Observer has established that some months ago his partner, the journalist Isabel Oakeshott, moved out to Dubai with her children.

    Another couple of Brexiteers have exited. What a surprise...
    Along with everyone else who can afford to since Sir Vortex of Shit rode in to save the country (the country being Mauritius - should have checked the small print).
    I couldn't give two hours about millionaires leaving the country. They don't pay their fair share of tax anyway. They can eff off.
    Yes but they go shopping and hire staff and take taxis and all the rest of it. There's more to the economy than income tax.
    Ah, the "Trickle Down Economy"

    Which usually means they are pissing on us.
    Rich people spend money.

    Your spurious denial of this sounds like sour grapes because they're choosing en masse to spend it in other places than Starmer's 1984 theme park.
    The US has repeatedly tried trickle down and it has not worked. Most of the money just accrues in the multimillionaires’ bank accounts.
    Money people put in banks doesn't just sit in a box. It enables banks to lend to other people, thereby jeeping interest rates low. Or it gets inveated in businesses, thereby providing jobs. That million pounds in the bank isn't lazy.
    What if it is put in an offshore account? How do we benefit then?

    Depending which offshore territory there’s a very good chance the UK does benefit. The billions in, for example the crown dependencies, aren’t “kept there”. They are mostly moved into the uk, often on a daily basis by treasury teams.

    We don’t keep billions and billions overnight or long term in small jurisdictions so the cash that is flowing in and out of the UK and being on UK bank balance sheets and enabling lending is money that the UK wouldn’t otherwise have in its banking system as it’s money from people and corporations around the world.

    So not only do you benefit from increased liquidity from people putting their money offshore the moving and managing of those funds in the UK creates high paying jobs for people who pay UK tax and spend money in the UK.

    Hope that helps.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,106

    Carnyx said:

    boulay said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Trump administration to begin deportation of illegal immigrants on day one starting in Chicago

    I thought Elon Musk lived in Texas?
    1) ICE is deporting immigrants all the time. Every single day. Will there actually be a change?
    2) Chicago is Sanctuary City. In American terms, this means that the city authorities don’t cooperate with ICE at an official level. So a local cop reporting an illegal to ICE will actually be disciplined for breaking the rules of his/her job. Stepping up deportations from Chicago will entail a big fight between Federal and local authorities. Grist to the MAGA mill.

    The Overton window on deportation has really shifted in the US. According to a poll the other day, half support mass deportation of everyone illegal.

    Even a few years ago that would have been about 10%

    The Sanctuary City thing is a response to this.
    Will there be tears about not being able to get staff to wash dishes in hotels and restaurants, a shortage of short order and fast food cooks, the lack of domestic cleaners, prices of legal gardeners going through the roof and crops not getting picked in time.

    Am I outdated to think that many of the shitty jobs are done by illegal immigrants where their removal will directly affect them by removal/reduction of services and price increases as staffing costs shoot up through reduced supply. Or is there a surfeit of documented people willing to do grim jobs for peanuts?
    Unknown on most of that. Staffing costs in the US have already gone through the roof. Driving inflation in food and other everyday items.

    A common thing is that eating out used to be cheap in many parts of the US. Since COVID, the cost has rocketed. Which is the kind of inflation that really, really gets noticed.

    Ironically, “AI” is coming for many of the shitty jobs.

    Something to understand about the general immigration argument in the US. We discuss whether immigrants have suppressed wages in the U.K.

    In the US, companies have bought in workers on H1B visas, and forced their American workers to train them up. With the explicit and announced plan of sending the immigrant workers back to India etc - fire the current workforce. Yes, that in-your-face.

    Similar stuff happened with NAFTA and the Southern border.


    Such practices have fuelled… well, you can fill in the rest.
    Hang on, I don't understand your para 5. Bring in workers on H1B, train them,. send them home?
    Outsourcing IT jobs on Indian wages
    Not just IT jobs.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,554
    Dave Chappelle doing a 17-minute opening monologue on SNL. Something for everyone there.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57pGarTBJrU
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,061
    Evening all from New Zealand :)

    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has carried out a summer Cabinet reshuffle today with the Health Minister Shane Reti the most high profile victim. He was widely tipped to go and Transport Minister Simeon Brown will take over. A few other changes including one James Meagher coming into Government as a first term MP.

    The latest opinion poll here has Labour a point or so ahead of National but thanks to an improved showing for New Zealand First, seat projections have the incumbent governing coalition being re-elected but with a majority of just four (62-58). Polling day is likely to be October 11th.

    On tax, I understand the concerns of those who fear the exodus of the billionaires but it’s my experience nature abhors a vacuum and in a capitalist economy opportunity exists for others to become the wealth creators and replace those who have left. The huge mistake made was allowing so much of our infrastructure and other assets to fall into foreign ownership. We pay high energy bills to subsidise customers in the countries of those who own the utilities. That’s absurd but it seems we can or are prepared to do nothing.
  • NEW THREAD

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,554

    Carnyx said:

    boulay said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Trump administration to begin deportation of illegal immigrants on day one starting in Chicago

    I thought Elon Musk lived in Texas?
    1) ICE is deporting immigrants all the time. Every single day. Will there actually be a change?
    2) Chicago is Sanctuary City. In American terms, this means that the city authorities don’t cooperate with ICE at an official level. So a local cop reporting an illegal to ICE will actually be disciplined for breaking the rules of his/her job. Stepping up deportations from Chicago will entail a big fight between Federal and local authorities. Grist to the MAGA mill.

    The Overton window on deportation has really shifted in the US. According to a poll the other day, half support mass deportation of everyone illegal.

    Even a few years ago that would have been about 10%

    The Sanctuary City thing is a response to this.
    Will there be tears about not being able to get staff to wash dishes in hotels and restaurants, a shortage of short order and fast food cooks, the lack of domestic cleaners, prices of legal gardeners going through the roof and crops not getting picked in time.

    Am I outdated to think that many of the shitty jobs are done by illegal immigrants where their removal will directly affect them by removal/reduction of services and price increases as staffing costs shoot up through reduced supply. Or is there a surfeit of documented people willing to do grim jobs for peanuts?
    Unknown on most of that. Staffing costs in the US have already gone through the roof. Driving inflation in food and other everyday items.

    A common thing is that eating out used to be cheap in many parts of the US. Since COVID, the cost has rocketed. Which is the kind of inflation that really, really gets noticed.

    Ironically, “AI” is coming for many of the shitty jobs.

    Something to understand about the general immigration argument in the US. We discuss whether immigrants have suppressed wages in the U.K.

    In the US, companies have bought in workers on H1B visas, and forced their American workers to train them up. With the explicit and announced plan of sending the immigrant workers back to India etc - fire the current workforce. Yes, that in-your-face.

    Similar stuff happened with NAFTA and the Southern border.


    Such practices have fuelled… well, you can fill in the rest.
    Hang on, I don't understand your para 5. Bring in workers on H1B, train them,. send them home?
    Outsourcing IT jobs on Indian wages
    Not just IT jobs.
    The vast majority of H1B visas are to Indians and Chinese, to do technology jobs on wages well under market rate and with the individuals unable to change employer.

    When that happens in my part of the world, it’s described as indentured servitude by the Western media.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,554
    edited January 19

    ohnotnow said:

    maxh said:

    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    One weekend, it will be the straightforward delights of Skegness seafront; the next, the flashy private beach clubs of Dubai.

    Richard Tice, deputy leader of Reform UK and its MP for Boston and Skegness, is splitting his time not just between his Lincolnshire ­constituency and the House of Commons, but is also spending time 3,500 miles away in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). “We are spreading our international reach,” he said.

    The Observer has established that some months ago his partner, the journalist Isabel Oakeshott, moved out to Dubai with her children.

    Another couple of Brexiteers have exited. What a surprise...
    Along with everyone else who can afford to since Sir Vortex of Shit rode in to save the country (the country being Mauritius - should have checked the small print).
    I couldn't give two hours about millionaires leaving the country. They don't pay their fair share of tax anyway. They can eff off.
    Eh? The top 1% of earners pay 29% of income tax. We are in deep, deep shit if they go.
    What percentage of income do the top 1% "earn" greater than or less than 29%?
    In 2024-2025, the top one per cent of income tax payers earned 13.3 per cent of total income and paid 28.2 per cent of income tax.

    The top ten per cent of income tax payers earned 35.1 per cent of total income in 2024-25 and paid 60.2 per cent of income tax
    How closely does the top 1% of earners correspond to the top 1% of income tax payers? Without that knowledge it feels like you are just describing one end of a bell curve.
    I went to https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/income-tax-liabilities-by-income-range

    I extracted some data and got this


    Could you paste in the data? My eyesight is so bad I can hardly see the image.
    As CSV

    Numbers of Income Tax payers are in thousands. Amounts are in millions unless otherwise stated.,,,,,
    Range of total income (lower limit),Total number of Income Tax payers,Total income,Total Income Tax liability,Average rate of Income Tax,Average amount of Income Tax in £
    "£12,570 ","2,790","38,200",620,1.60%,222
    "£15,000 ","5,580","97,200","4,800",4.90%,860
    "£20,000 ","10,100","250,000","22,600",9%,"2,230"
    "£30,000 ","11,000","422,000","52,400",12.40%,"4,780"
    "£50,000 ","6,110","401,000","75,600",18.90%,"12,400"
    "£100,000 ","1,010","120,000","35,200",29.40%,"35,000"
    "£150,000 ",357,"61,700","21,100",34.30%,"59,100"
    "£200,000 ",336,"96,300","36,600",38%,"109,000"
    "£500,000 ",59,"39,800","16,300",40.90%,"277,000"
    "£1,000,000 ",20,"27,800","11,400",40.90%,"556,000"
    "£2,000,000+",11,"61,300","24,500",40%,"2,250,000"

    You should be able to import that into Excel/Libre Office
    Eh? There must have been more than 11 income-tax payers on more than £2 million. Denise Coates and ten footballers, who are paid PAYE.
    11,000. Still sounds like an under-estimate, but 11k individuals earning £61bn and paying £24bn in tax is not to be sniffed it.

    Ironically, footballers are the least likely to be able to do anything about their tax bill, with various “image rights” and investment schemes thrown out in court against HMRC challenge, they’re pretty much all on PAYE and could be 10% of that 11,000.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    .
    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    He got the photo, but hardly the one he'd have wanted.

    German Foreign Minister Baerbock left a government meeting, refusing a photo with Scholz after his decision to block the allocation of a new aid package to Ukraine, — Bild
    https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1880546218193064084

    Instant classic.

    That's a strange one.

    Here's the uncropped one from the thread. She's not exactly leaving the meeting.

    Lol, who needs AI to push a narrative when a simple crop will do the job.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    stodge said:

    Evening all from New Zealand :)

    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has carried out a summer Cabinet reshuffle today with the Health Minister Shane Reti the most high profile victim. He was widely tipped to go and Transport Minister Simeon Brown will take over. A few other changes including one James Meagher coming into Government as a first term MP.

    The latest opinion poll here has Labour a point or so ahead of National but thanks to an improved showing for New Zealand First, seat projections have the incumbent governing coalition being re-elected but with a majority of just four (62-58). Polling day is likely to be October 11th.

    On tax, I understand the concerns of those who fear the exodus of the billionaires but it’s my experience nature abhors a vacuum and in a capitalist economy opportunity exists for others to become the wealth creators and replace those who have left. The huge mistake made was allowing so much of our infrastructure and other assets to fall into foreign ownership. We pay high energy bills to subsidise customers in the countries of those who own the utilities. That’s absurd but it seems we can or are prepared to do nothing.

    New Zealand's next election is not due until December 2026, it is Australia that votes this year

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_New_Zealand_general_election
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