Go West! – politicalbetting.com

System · January 18

Go West! – politicalbetting.com

YouGov's MRP for the 2025 German election shows a strong East/West divide, with the AfD leading in all but two constituencies in the former East Germanyhttps://t.co/9UMT1N9AYW pic.twitter.com/iYR3L1cK2x

Read the full story here

SandyRentool · January 18

1st.

I could have filled the top ten before anyone else showed up.

TimS · January 18

That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.

Foxy · January 18

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.

That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.

ManOfGwent · January 18

I have not been to Berlin for a long while. but it seems amazing that the east/west split remains even there. To such a seemingly pronounced level anyway.

MustaphaMondeo · January 18

Dunno what powers the right.

Poverty of opportunity?

Sandpit · January 18

The Pet Shop Boys were right.

Stuartinromford · January 18

Die Mauer im Kopf (The Wall in the head) has been a phenomenon for a while. Some other maps here;

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/long-take/die-mauer-im-kopf-the-legacy-of-division-in-german-politics/

Two parallel sets of political conversations. Smug centrists in the west, harder left and right in the east. And all amplified by internal migration.

It's a neat map, but the questions it raises are more universal. Smug centrists need to work out what they want to do for their left behind places and people. Those calling for more radical change... what happens when you can't solve the problems satisfactorily either?

Battlebus · January 18

Son's mother-in-law is a Putin granny. Won't hear a word against him. Despite living in Latvia she won't adopt a Latvian passport so has an 'alien' one. Makes it a real pain to get a visa to allow her to visit the UK. So at least there is an upside (MiL joke)

https://www.pmlp.gov.lv/en/aliens-non-citizens-passport

The East-West split will unlikely die out and will be a feature in politics for a long, long time. As mentioned in the other thread, the assumptions of the last decades have to be revisited if we are to operate in a multi-polar world. Pax Americana, if it did exist, has gone.

No_Offence_Alan · January 18

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.

The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.

Alphabet_Soup · January 18

The 'unification' of German-speaking people has been faltering since forever, more recently overlaid by Prussian imperialism and the cold war. That part of Europe is a cauldron of ancient resentments which modern maps obscure with clearly-drawn lines and bland colours. There's always someone trying to take advantage of the situation (Bismarck, Putin and the former Reichskanzler whose name escapes me).

StillWaters · January 18

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.

They have pumped huge amounts of money into the East. One of the nicest biological manufacturing facilities I’ve toured was in Dessau and funded by EU/German money.

The issue is a brain drain - there’s been meaningful depopulation in large parts of the east outside of Berlin with everyone heading west

Stuartinromford · January 18

Alphabet_Soup said:
The 'unification' of German-speaking people has been faltering since forever, more recently overlaid by Prussian imperialism and the cold war. That part of Europe is a cauldron of ancient resentments which modern maps obscure with clearly-drawn lines and bland colours. There's always someone trying to take advantage of the situation (Bismarck, Putin and the former Reichskanzler whose name escapes me).

"...heavenly... He is an angel." as a quote on the front page of today's Daily Mail describes him?

StillWaters · January 18

Stuartinromford said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
The 'unification' of German-speaking people has been faltering since forever, more recently overlaid by Prussian imperialism and the cold war. That part of Europe is a cauldron of ancient resentments which modern maps obscure with clearly-drawn lines and bland colours. There's always someone trying to take advantage of the situation (Bismarck, Putin and the former Reichskanzler whose name escapes me).
"...heavenly... He is an angel." as a quote on the front page of today's Daily Mail describes him?

To be fair to the Daily Mail you should make clear that it was the Mail that quoting a contemporaneous journal, not stating their view.

Anyway, to @Alphabet_Soup’s point I blame Elizabeth of Bohemia.

Foxy · January 18

StillWaters said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
They have pumped huge amounts of money into the East. One of the nicest biological manufacturing facilities I’ve toured was in Dessau and funded by EU/German money.

The issue is a brain drain - there’s been meaningful depopulation in large parts of the east outside of Berlin with everyone heading west

Yep, like the Red Wall towns here the young move away for opportunities and education, and why would they want to go back?

Nothing breeds resentment more than being on the receiving end of charity. It's why the Reform areas hate the prosperous SE that pays their pensions and regional subsidies. It's the same in Germany, the AfD resents the prosperous West.

StillWaters · January 18

Foxy said:

StillWaters said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
They have pumped huge amounts of money into the East. One of the nicest biological manufacturing facilities I’ve toured was in Dessau and funded by EU/German money.

The issue is a brain drain - there’s been meaningful depopulation in large parts of the east outside of Berlin with everyone heading west
Yep, like the Red Wall towns here the young move away for opportunities and education, and why would they want to go back?

Nothing breeds resentment more than being on the receiving end of charity. It's why the Reform areas hate the prosperous SE that pays their pensions and regional subsidies. It's the same in Germany, the AfD resents the prosperous West.

So you are saying the AfD is like the SNP then?

Stuartinromford · January 18

StillWaters said:

Stuartinromford said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
The 'unification' of German-speaking people has been faltering since forever, more recently overlaid by Prussian imperialism and the cold war. That part of Europe is a cauldron of ancient resentments which modern maps obscure with clearly-drawn lines and bland colours. There's always someone trying to take advantage of the situation (Bismarck, Putin and the former Reichskanzler whose name escapes me).
"...heavenly... He is an angel." as a quote on the front page of today's Daily Mail describes him?
To be fair to the Daily Mail you should make clear that it was the Mail that quoting a contemporaneous journal, not stating their view.

Anyway, to @Alphabet_Soup’s point I blame Elizabeth of Bohemia.

One should, even if it sticks in one's throat.

However, it's still a pretty mad thing to run on the front page.

Besides, anyone who has designed a political leaflet will tell you that most of your audience (in this case, non-buyers seeing it on the rack in the shop) get no further than the headline.

rottenborough · January 18

East Germans - "We've tried communism recently, and that didn't work, so let's give the Nazis another go"

kamski · January 18

Not sure this YouGov poll is telling us anything new - it's pretty much in line with other recent polling.

It has the Left winning one constituency - also in line with other polling. They need 3 constituencies to qualify for PR seats if they fail to reach the 5% hurdle (as happened last time). A second one should be within reach, but the third would probably need a bit of tactical voting in that constituency. It looks unlikely, but who knows? AIUI MRP is anyway not that accurate in specific individual constituencies, so probably not helping much.

The FDP have zero chance of winning any constituencies, so need to get over 5% nationally. Currently averaging 4% in the polls, and I don't think they will make it.

The BSW are currently averaging 5% in the polls, and seem to have little chance of winning 3 constituencies.

So it looks like (ignoring the one MP from the SSW, who may or may not get reelected), of the current parties in the Bundestag, the FDP and the Left will probably be out. And one new party, the BSW, might get in. If all three of these do get in (pretty unlikely) it makes CDU/CSU + Greens very unlikely to get a majority, and it makes CDU/CSU + SPD quite unlikely to get a majority.

I have to say the map is a bit misleading, only showing which party might have a plurality in each constituency. It doesn't show, for example, that in the latest Bundesland polling for the Bundestag , the SPD has 10% support in Bavaria, considerably lower than their polling in (former East German) Brandenburg (19%) and Meck-Pomm (16%).

And worth noting that the 'new states' - ie former East Germany not including Berlin - has a total population less than the population of Bavaria.

I could write an idiot's guide to the German elections, but not sure I have time

Alphabet_Soup · January 18

Stuartinromford said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
The 'unification' of German-speaking people has been faltering since forever, more recently overlaid by Prussian imperialism and the cold war. That part of Europe is a cauldron of ancient resentments which modern maps obscure with clearly-drawn lines and bland colours. There's always someone trying to take advantage of the situation (Bismarck, Putin and the former Reichskanzler whose name escapes me).
"...heavenly... He is an angel." as a quote on the front page of today's Daily Mail describes him?

That's the feller.

Fishing · January 18

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.

It also shows the failure of regional policy even on a gigantic scale.

2 trillion euros of charity and there is still a glaring gap in economic prosperity and indeed after a spurt in improvements after they got rid of Communism in the 90s the gap has largely stagnated, despite a large loss in population to the west. Obviously the same is observable in Italy between the North and the South.

Something to bear in mind when people say that a couple of rail lines and a few hundred million in industrial subsidies will do anything for the North, except make it yet more dependent on the South.

Foxy · January 18

Stuartinromford said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
The 'unification' of German-speaking people has been faltering since forever, more recently overlaid by Prussian imperialism and the cold war. That part of Europe is a cauldron of ancient resentments which modern maps obscure with clearly-drawn lines and bland colours. There's always someone trying to take advantage of the situation (Bismarck, Putin and the former Reichskanzler whose name escapes me).
"...heavenly... He is an angel." as a quote on the front page of today's Daily Mail describes him?

They can't hide their fawning over posh Hitler groupies, it is the Daily Mail.

kamski · January 18

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.

OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.

Foxy · January 18

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.

Quite possibly, but as I point out no good deed goes unpunished.

ManchesterKurt · January 18

Fishing said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
It also shows the failure of regional policy even on a gigantic scale.

2 trillion euros of charity and there is still a glaring gap in economic prosperity and indeed after a spurt in improvements after they got rid of Communism in the 90s the gap has largely stagnated, despite a large loss in population to the west. Obviously the same is observable in Italy between the North and the South.

Something to bear in mind when people say that a couple of rail lines and a few hundred million in industrial subsidies will do anything for the North, except make it yet more dependent on the South.

The investment in infrastructure has worked in the UK, Manchester investing heavily in trams and having the fastest growth in the UK in the last 25years, including London.

Likewise, places like France have seen cities like Lyon and others grow their economies significantly following the arrival of decent connections to the rest of France.

Not sure you can draw any conclusion that investing in infrastructure would be a bad idea in the UK based on this.

Cannot think of any rail or any such great infrastructure investment in Germany since 1989, in fact, was that one of the main criticisms of Merkel, her lack of willingness to invest in new infrastructure to help grow the German economy.

kamski · January 18

Foxy said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Quite possibly, but as I point out no good deed goes unpunished.

The AfD's main thing is being anti-immigrant. People in the former East Germany a re generally a lot more anti-immigrant (and indeed openly racist) than people in the former West Germany. The reasons for this are a bit more complicated than the new Bundesländer being poorer.

kamski · January 18

ManchesterKurt said:

Fishing said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
It also shows the failure of regional policy even on a gigantic scale.

2 trillion euros of charity and there is still a glaring gap in economic prosperity and indeed after a spurt in improvements after they got rid of Communism in the 90s the gap has largely stagnated, despite a large loss in population to the west. Obviously the same is observable in Italy between the North and the South.

Something to bear in mind when people say that a couple of rail lines and a few hundred million in industrial subsidies will do anything for the North, except make it yet more dependent on the South.
The investment in infrastructure has worked in the UK, Manchester investing heavily in trams and having the fastest growth in the UK in the last 25years, including London.

Likewise, places like France have seen cities like Lyon and others grow their economies significantly following the arrival of decent connections to the rest of France.

Not sure you can draw any conclusion that investing in infrastructure would be a bad idea in the UK based on this.

Cannot think of any rail or any such great infrastructure investment in Germany since 1989, in fact, was that one of the main criticisms of Merkel, her lack of willingness to invest in new infrastructure to help grow the German economy.

well, apart from the massive investments in the East...

Fishing · January 18

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.

Not recently. There were big improvements in the fifteen years after the fall of Communism, probably due to the imposition of West German property rights and laws on the East, but relative improvements pretty much stopped in the 2010s with the East still about a quarter poorer than the West.

Regions that level up do so not because of subsidies from the centre, but because they have governments that are pro-enterprise and pro-growth. For example, the South and Mountain West of the United States which have closed much of the income gap with the rest of the US since World War II - both those regions DO in fact receive significant federal subsidies, like the North of England or Eastern Germany, but they also both have vigorous entrepreneurial cultures and lighter regulation on such matters as planning (or zoning as Americans call it) in a way that their European counterparts simply do not. That's the crucial factor, not the magnitude of subsidies, many of which at best have small effects and at worst throttle whatever enterprise and initiative survives in the poorer regions.

Another important factor is genuine autonomy in regional government, allowing them to innovate and make mistakes, in a way which is totally alien to us in Britain, but which has let Texas, say, be pro-growth while California happily regulates itself to stagnation.

Sean_F · January 18

kamski said:

Foxy said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Quite possibly, but as I point out no good deed goes unpunished.
The AfD's main thing is being anti-immigrant. People in the former East Germany a re generally a lot more anti-immigrant (and indeed openly racist) than people in the former West Germany. The reasons for this are a bit more complicated than the new Bundesländer being poorer.

Western Liberal guilt just does not exist in countries that have been ruled by communists.

Mortimer · January 18

Fishing said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Not recently. There were big improvements in the fifteen years after the fall of Communism, probably due to the imposition of West German property rights and laws on the East, but relative improvements pretty much stopped in the 2010s with the East still about a quarter poorer than the West.

Regions that level up do so not because of subsidies from the centre, but because they have governments that are pro-enterprise and pro-growth. For example, the South and Mountain West of the United States which have closed much of the income gap with the rest of the US since World War II - both those regions DO in fact receive significant federal subsidies, like the North of England or Eastern Germany, but they also both have vigorous entrepreneurial cultures and lighter regulation on such matters as planning (or zoning as Americans call it) in a way that their European counterparts simply do not. That's the crucial factor, not the magnitude of subsidies, many of which at best have small effects and at worst throttle whatever enterprise and initiative survives in the poorer regions.

Another important factor is genuine autonomy in regional government, allowing them to innovate and make mistakes, in a way which is totally alien to us in Britain, but which has let Texas, say, be pro-growth while California happily regulates itself to stagnation.

The bureaucratisation of government will be looked upon as the most long-lasting and perhaps pernicious legacy of the growth of the state during the 20th century.

Sunil_Prasannan · January 18

rottenborough said:
East Germans - "We've tried communism recently, and that didn't work, so let's give the Nazis another go"

"We Germans are experts at forgetting. We forgot we were Nazis. Now we have forgotten 40 years of Communism - all gone."

kinabalu · January 18

That's quite a picture. I guess you could say (if you were inclined to such takes) that German Reunification remains a work-in-progress.

Carnyx · January 18

StillWaters said:

Foxy said:

StillWaters said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
They have pumped huge amounts of money into the East. One of the nicest biological manufacturing facilities I’ve toured was in Dessau and funded by EU/German money.

The issue is a brain drain - there’s been meaningful depopulation in large parts of the east outside of Berlin with everyone heading west
Yep, like the Red Wall towns here the young move away for opportunities and education, and why would they want to go back?

Nothing breeds resentment more than being on the receiving end of charity. It's why the Reform areas hate the prosperous SE that pays their pensions and regional subsidies. It's the same in Germany, the AfD resents the prosperous West.
So you are saying the AfD is like the SNP then?

Other way round. Look at the way in which the Unionists have behaved over the huge handout of North Sea Oil.

Sean_F · January 18

Alphabet_Soup said:

Stuartinromford said:

Alphabet_Soup said:
The 'unification' of German-speaking people has been faltering since forever, more recently overlaid by Prussian imperialism and the cold war. That part of Europe is a cauldron of ancient resentments which modern maps obscure with clearly-drawn lines and bland colours. There's always someone trying to take advantage of the situation (Bismarck, Putin and the former Reichskanzler whose name escapes me).
"...heavenly... He is an angel." as a quote on the front page of today's Daily Mail describes him?
That's the feller.

Unity Mitford used to greet the sub-post master at Batsford with “Heil Hitler”, and a smart Nazi salute.

She described the Nazi rally, at which she proclaimed “I am a Jew-hater”, as “simply Heaven.”

She had the bad taste to have an affair with the Third Reich’s chief pervert, Julius Streicher.

kamski · January 18

Fishing said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Not recently. There were big improvements in the fifteen years after the fall of Communism, probably due to the imposition of West German property rights and laws on the East, but relative improvements pretty much stopped in the 2010s with the East still about a quarter poorer than the West.

Regions that level up do so not because of subsidies from the centre, but because they have governments that are pro-enterprise and pro-growth. For example, the South and Mountain West of the United States which have closed much of the income gap with the rest of the US since World War II - both those regions DO in fact receive significant federal subsidies, like the North of England or Eastern Germany, but they also both have vigorous entrepreneurial cultures and lighter regulation on such matters as planning (or zoning as Americans call it) in a way that their European counterparts simply do not. That's the crucial factor, not the magnitude of subsidies, many of which at best have small effects and at worst throttle whatever enterprise and initiative survives in the poorer regions.

Another important factor is genuine autonomy in regional government, allowing them to innovate and make mistakes, in a way which is totally alien to us in Britain, but which has let Texas, say, be pro-growth while California happily regulates itself to stagnation.

To go from about 35% or west german GDP per capita to about 80% is still a huge improvement, surely much bigger than anything in the UK. The main reason it has stalled recently is because of the lower productivity in the East, and one of the main reasons for this is because of the brain drain from East to West. This brain drain would have been worse without government support. I don't think there is any serious doubt that without the fiscal flow from West to East, the new Bundesländer would be far worse off today.

edited to add "federal subsidies, like the North of England or Eastern Germany" makes it sound like the north of england has had the same fiscal support as East Germany since 1991, which is surely not even close to right?

kle4 · January 18

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.

They don't tend to give you a choice about that in fairness.

kle4 · January 18

Battlebus said:
Son's mother-in-law is a Putin granny. Won't hear a word against him. Despite living in Latvia she won't adopt a Latvian passport so has an 'alien' one. Makes it a real pain to get a visa to allow her to visit the UK. So at least there is an upside (MiL joke)

https://www.pmlp.gov.lv/en/aliens-non-citizens-passport

The East-West split will unlikely die out and will be a feature in politics for a long, long time. As mentioned in the other thread, the assumptions of the last decades have to be revisited if we are to operate in a multi-polar world. Pax Americana, if it did exist, has gone.

Going perhaps. We may look back fondly, unless we are very lucky.

kamski · January 18

Sean_F said:

kamski said:

Foxy said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Quite possibly, but as I point out no good deed goes unpunished.
The AfD's main thing is being anti-immigrant. People in the former East Germany a re generally a lot more anti-immigrant (and indeed openly racist) than people in the former West Germany. The reasons for this are a bit more complicated than the new Bundesländer being poorer.
Western Liberal guilt just does not exist in countries that have been ruled by communists.

ooh that makes things complicated. if only I didn't have 'Western liberal guilt' I would naturally be a racist who hates immigrants. otoh as an immigrant, if I was guilt-free I'd have to hate myself. confusing.

Sandpit · January 18

Russian corporate debt now 20% of GDP, up 50% since the start of the war, and now unsustainable as companies are borrowing more to make current interest payments.

https://x.com/realjakebroe/status/1880481541631144105

Meanwhile, there’s six Russian O&G facilities currently on fire, and they seem incapable of defending anything closer than 1,000km from Ukraine against drones and missiles.

https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1880457465474740662

DecrepiterJohnL · January 18

Trump's inauguration being moved inside will presumably limit numbers so whether Liz Truss gets bumped...

HYUFD · January 18

Looks like a landslide win for the Union in West Germany then at the constituency level with just patches of SPD seats left mainly around the big cities. A clean sweep for the CSU in Bavaria but an AfD win in East Germany. As Germany has PR though it will likely end up a CDU and SPD grand coalition again as it was for most of the Merkel era with the AfD in opposition.

There are also elections in Canada later in the year as mentioned which the Conservatives look set to win comfortably though whichever of Freeland or Carney replaces Trudeau as Liberal leader and PM will hope to narrow the gap by
polling day.

Finally Australia has its Federal election later this year too. Currently it looks neck and neck between the Coalition and governing Labor party but with the Teal Independents likely to hold the balance of power

ydoethur · January 18

HYUFD said:
Looks like a landslide win for the Union in West Germany

Bloody hell, shit getting real for the SNP if they're even losing in Germany.

Morris_Dancer · January 18

Good morning, everyone.

Some quick thoughts in audio form about the betting markets ahead of the F1 2025 season:
https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-betting-odds/

Sandpit · January 18

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Trump's inauguration being moved inside will presumably limit numbers so whether Liz Truss gets bumped...

Those invited by Trump himself will likely get a seat inside somewhere, even if its in a different room.

Those who had applied for general admission tickets, they’re mostly going to be SOL, with only limited space in a couple of large indoor venues being opened for the day. I don’t see any provision for outdoor big screens so far, so there will be an awful lot of people there who won’t get to see anything. Not that you would ever see much from being half a mile down the Mall anyway!

Monksfield · January 18

The post war experience of the Ossis was very different to the west. Far less critical appraisal of past and present. Ossi boomers are clearly hot for simplism.

williamglenn · January 18

Monksfield said:
The post war experience of the Ossis was very different to the west. Far less critical appraisal of past and present. Ossi boomers are clearly hot for simplism.

The AfD are led by a lesbian Goldman Sachs alumna from West Germany whose partner is Sri Lankan.

Theuniondivvie · January 18

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.

Or the UK has been remarkably bad at closing the gap in its English regions. I believe 30 years ago most of the top ten most deprived areas in the UK were in Scotland, now:

Top twenty most deprived regions in the UK

Tendring- around St Osyth and Seawick
Blackpool- the Area near The Central Pier
Blackpool- Around the Promenade by the North Pier
Thanet- In Cliftonville West
Blackpool- in the Region by the South Pier
Tendring- in the Area by Clacton-On-The-Sea
Blackpool- in the Region That Falls between Waterloo Road and St Chad’s Station
Coventry- In the Area around Hillmorton Road In Henly
Blackpool- In Woolman Road As Well As Clinton Avenue
Waveney- In the Location of the South Pier in Lowestoft
Blackpool-Around the Cookson Street
Kingston upon Hull- near St John’s Grove
North East Lincolnshire- In the Area That Is Around Oxford Street in Grimsby
Burnley- The Area That Falls On Tay Street and Howard Street
Burnley- The Region That Lies Between Belvedere Road and the Church Street
Mansfield- In Sandy Lane
Blackpool- In Carshalton Road As Well As Clevedon Road
Blackburn with Darwen- The Region of Wensley Fold
Great Yarmouth- By the Seafront

https://livingwagecommission.org.uk/poorest-uk-places/

Of course the Anglobrits will insist this is down to the generosity and wisdom of successive UK governments, whose consistent qualities everyone can agree have been generosity and wisdom.

HYUFD · January 18

Trump administration to begin deportation of illegal immigrants on day one starting in Chicago

viewcode · January 18

Off-topic, here is an interesting skeet thread from Robert Saunders on the historical setting for growth

https://bsky.app/profile/robertsaunders.bsky.social/post/3lajb4r4s422s

ydoethur · January 18

HYUFD said:
Trump administration to begin deportation of illegal immigrants on day one starting in Chicago

I thought Elon Musk lived in Texas?

ManOfGwent · January 18

Theuniondivvie said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Or the UK has been remarkably bad at closing the gap in its English regions. I believe 30 years ago most of the top ten most deprived areas in the UK were in Scotland, now:

Top twenty most deprived regions in the UK

Tendring- around St Osyth and Seawick
Blackpool- the Area near The Central Pier
Blackpool- Around the Promenade by the North Pier
Thanet- In Cliftonville West
Blackpool- in the Region by the South Pier
Tendring- in the Area by Clacton-On-The-Sea
Blackpool- in the Region That Falls between Waterloo Road and St Chad’s Station
Coventry- In the Area around Hillmorton Road In Henly
Blackpool- In Woolman Road As Well As Clinton Avenue
Waveney- In the Location of the South Pier in Lowestoft
Blackpool-Around the Cookson Street
Kingston upon Hull- near St John’s Grove
North East Lincolnshire- In the Area That Is Around Oxford Street in Grimsby
Burnley- The Area That Falls On Tay Street and Howard Street
Burnley- The Region That Lies Between Belvedere Road and the Church Street
Mansfield- In Sandy Lane
Blackpool- In Carshalton Road As Well As Clevedon Road
Blackburn with Darwen- The Region of Wensley Fold
Great Yarmouth- By the Seafront

https://livingwagecommission.org.uk/poorest-uk-places/

Of course the Anglobrits will insist this is down to the generosity and wisdom of successive UK governments, whose consistent qualities everyone can agree have been generosity and wisdom.

The fact that Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil are not on that list makes me seriously question it's accuracy.

ydoethur · January 18

Battlebus said:
Son's mother-in-law is a Putin granny. Won't hear a word against him. Despite living in Latvia she won't adopt a Latvian passport so has an 'alien' one. Makes it a real pain to get a visa to allow her to visit the UK. So at least there is an upside (MiL joke)

https://www.pmlp.gov.lv/en/aliens-non-citizens-passport

The East-West split will unlikely die out and will be a feature in politics for a long, long time. As mentioned in the other thread, the assumptions of the last decades have to be revisited if we are to operate in a multi-polar world. Pax Americana, if it did exist, has gone.

Did somebody say 'MiL joke?'

https://youtu.be/1ykqPa4MgWg?si=8Wsnr11uQBIFzRgp

ydoethur · January 18

ManOfGwent said:

Theuniondivvie said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Or the UK has been remarkably bad at closing the gap in its English regions. I believe 30 years ago most of the top ten most deprived areas in the UK were in Scotland, now:

Top twenty most deprived regions in the UK

Tendring- around St Osyth and Seawick
Blackpool- the Area near The Central Pier
Blackpool- Around the Promenade by the North Pier
Thanet- In Cliftonville West
Blackpool- in the Region by the South Pier
Tendring- in the Area by Clacton-On-The-Sea
Blackpool- in the Region That Falls between Waterloo Road and St Chad’s Station
Coventry- In the Area around Hillmorton Road In Henly
Blackpool- In Woolman Road As Well As Clinton Avenue
Waveney- In the Location of the South Pier in Lowestoft
Blackpool-Around the Cookson Street
Kingston upon Hull- near St John’s Grove
North East Lincolnshire- In the Area That Is Around Oxford Street in Grimsby
Burnley- The Area That Falls On Tay Street and Howard Street
Burnley- The Region That Lies Between Belvedere Road and the Church Street
Mansfield- In Sandy Lane
Blackpool- In Carshalton Road As Well As Clevedon Road
Blackburn with Darwen- The Region of Wensley Fold
Great Yarmouth- By the Seafront

https://livingwagecommission.org.uk/poorest-uk-places/

Of course the Anglobrits will insist this is down to the generosity and wisdom of successive UK governments, whose consistent qualities everyone can agree have been generosity and wisdom.
The fact that Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil are not on that list makes me seriously question it's accuracy.

Or indeed Holyhead and Blaenau Ffestiniog.

malcolmg · January 18

StillWaters said:

Foxy said:

StillWaters said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
They have pumped huge amounts of money into the East. One of the nicest biological manufacturing facilities I’ve toured was in Dessau and funded by EU/German money.

The issue is a brain drain - there’s been meaningful depopulation in large parts of the east outside of Berlin with everyone heading west
Yep, like the Red Wall towns here the young move away for opportunities and education, and why would they want to go back?

Nothing breeds resentment more than being on the receiving end of charity. It's why the Reform areas hate the prosperous SE that pays their pensions and regional subsidies. It's the same in Germany, the AfD resents the prosperous West.
So you are saying the AfD is like the SNP then?

Tosser

Malmesbury · January 18

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:
Trump administration to begin deportation of illegal immigrants on day one starting in Chicago
I thought Elon Musk lived in Texas?

1) ICE is deporting immigrants all the time. Every single day. Will there actually be a change?
2) Chicago is Sanctuary City. In American terms, this means that the city authorities don’t cooperate with ICE at an official level. So a local cop reporting an illegal to ICE will actually be disciplined for breaking the rules of his/her job. Stepping up deportations from Chicago will entail a big fight between Federal and local authorities. Grist to the MAGA mill.

The Overton window on deportation has really shifted in the US. According to a poll the other day, half support mass deportation of everyone illegal.

Even a few years ago that would have been about 10%

The Sanctuary City thing is a response to this.

ManOfGwent · January 18

ydoethur said:

ManOfGwent said:

Theuniondivvie said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Or the UK has been remarkably bad at closing the gap in its English regions. I believe 30 years ago most of the top ten most deprived areas in the UK were in Scotland, now:

Top twenty most deprived regions in the UK

Tendring- around St Osyth and Seawick
Blackpool- the Area near The Central Pier
Blackpool- Around the Promenade by the North Pier
Thanet- In Cliftonville West
Blackpool- in the Region by the South Pier
Tendring- in the Area by Clacton-On-The-Sea
Blackpool- in the Region That Falls between Waterloo Road and St Chad’s Station
Coventry- In the Area around Hillmorton Road In Henly
Blackpool- In Woolman Road As Well As Clinton Avenue
Waveney- In the Location of the South Pier in Lowestoft
Blackpool-Around the Cookson Street
Kingston upon Hull- near St John’s Grove
North East Lincolnshire- In the Area That Is Around Oxford Street in Grimsby
Burnley- The Area That Falls On Tay Street and Howard Street
Burnley- The Region That Lies Between Belvedere Road and the Church Street
Mansfield- In Sandy Lane
Blackpool- In Carshalton Road As Well As Clevedon Road
Blackburn with Darwen- The Region of Wensley Fold
Great Yarmouth- By the Seafront

https://livingwagecommission.org.uk/poorest-uk-places/

Of course the Anglobrits will insist this is down to the generosity and wisdom of successive UK governments, whose consistent qualities everyone can agree have been generosity and wisdom.
The fact that Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil are not on that list makes me seriously question it's accuracy.
Or indeed Holyhead and Blaenau Ffestiniog.

Indeed, it's actually very clearly just a list of the most deprived parts of England based on an England only local government report. So clearly would not show the deprived parts of the rest of the UK.

another_richard · January 18

Another legacy of Merkel.

I'm old enough to remember when every 'centrist dad' idolised her as the personification of 'good government'.

Stuartinromford · January 18

Malmesbury said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:
Trump administration to begin deportation of illegal immigrants on day one starting in Chicago
I thought Elon Musk lived in Texas?
1) ICE is deporting immigrants all the time. Every single day. Will there actually be a change?
2) Chicago is Sanctuary City. In American terms, this means that the city authorities don’t cooperate with ICE at an official level. So a local cop reporting an illegal to ICE will actually be disciplined for breaking the rules of his/her job. Stepping up deportations from Chicago will entail a big fight between Federal and local authorities. Grist to the MAGA mill.

The Overton window on deportation has really shifted in the US. According to a poll the other day, half support mass deportation of everyone illegal.

Even a few years ago that would have been about 10%

The Sanctuary City thing is a response to this.

In other words, picking the fight is the aim of the exercise.

another_richard · January 18

Why do the SPD do so well in East Frisia ?

I thought it was a rural holiday area.

kinabalu · January 18

ManOfGwent said:

Theuniondivvie said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Or the UK has been remarkably bad at closing the gap in its English regions. I believe 30 years ago most of the top ten most deprived areas in the UK were in Scotland, now:

Top twenty most deprived regions in the UK

Tendring- around St Osyth and Seawick
Blackpool- the Area near The Central Pier
Blackpool- Around the Promenade by the North Pier
Thanet- In Cliftonville West
Blackpool- in the Region by the South Pier
Tendring- in the Area by Clacton-On-The-Sea
Blackpool- in the Region That Falls between Waterloo Road and St Chad’s Station
Coventry- In the Area around Hillmorton Road In Henly
Blackpool- In Woolman Road As Well As Clinton Avenue
Waveney- In the Location of the South Pier in Lowestoft
Blackpool-Around the Cookson Street
Kingston upon Hull- near St John’s Grove
North East Lincolnshire- In the Area That Is Around Oxford Street in Grimsby
Burnley- The Area That Falls On Tay Street and Howard Street
Burnley- The Region That Lies Between Belvedere Road and the Church Street
Mansfield- In Sandy Lane
Blackpool- In Carshalton Road As Well As Clevedon Road
Blackburn with Darwen- The Region of Wensley Fold
Great Yarmouth- By the Seafront

https://livingwagecommission.org.uk/poorest-uk-places/

Of course the Anglobrits will insist this is down to the generosity and wisdom of successive UK governments, whose consistent qualities everyone can agree have been generosity and wisdom.
The fact that Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil are not on that list makes me seriously question it's accuracy.

Well I can vouch for "Great Yarmouth, by the Seafront". That's grim.

another_richard · January 18

Stuartinromford said:

Malmesbury said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:
Trump administration to begin deportation of illegal immigrants on day one starting in Chicago
I thought Elon Musk lived in Texas?
1) ICE is deporting immigrants all the time. Every single day. Will there actually be a change?
2) Chicago is Sanctuary City. In American terms, this means that the city authorities don’t cooperate with ICE at an official level. So a local cop reporting an illegal to ICE will actually be disciplined for breaking the rules of his/her job. Stepping up deportations from Chicago will entail a big fight between Federal and local authorities. Grist to the MAGA mill.

The Overton window on deportation has really shifted in the US. According to a poll the other day, half support mass deportation of everyone illegal.

Even a few years ago that would have been about 10%

The Sanctuary City thing is a response to this.
In other words, picking the fight is the aim of the exercise.

So why have the Dems chosen to pick the fight ?

kinabalu · January 18

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Trump's inauguration being moved inside will presumably limit numbers so whether Liz Truss gets bumped...

Is it really weather or is security a factor? It being Trump.

boulay · January 18

Malmesbury said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:
Trump administration to begin deportation of illegal immigrants on day one starting in Chicago
I thought Elon Musk lived in Texas?
1) ICE is deporting immigrants all the time. Every single day. Will there actually be a change?
2) Chicago is Sanctuary City. In American terms, this means that the city authorities don’t cooperate with ICE at an official level. So a local cop reporting an illegal to ICE will actually be disciplined for breaking the rules of his/her job. Stepping up deportations from Chicago will entail a big fight between Federal and local authorities. Grist to the MAGA mill.

The Overton window on deportation has really shifted in the US. According to a poll the other day, half support mass deportation of everyone illegal.

Even a few years ago that would have been about 10%

The Sanctuary City thing is a response to this.

Will there be tears about not being able to get staff to wash dishes in hotels and restaurants, a shortage of short order and fast food cooks, the lack of domestic cleaners, prices of legal gardeners going through the roof and crops not getting picked in time.

Am I outdated to think that many of the shitty jobs are done by illegal immigrants where their removal will directly affect them by removal/reduction of services and price increases as staffing costs shoot up through reduced supply. Or is there a surfeit of documented people willing to do grim jobs for peanuts?

another_richard · January 18

Theuniondivvie said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Or the UK has been remarkably bad at closing the gap in its English regions. I believe 30 years ago most of the top ten most deprived areas in the UK were in Scotland, now:

Top twenty most deprived regions in the UK

Tendring- around St Osyth and Seawick
Blackpool- the Area near The Central Pier
Blackpool- Around the Promenade by the North Pier
Thanet- In Cliftonville West
Blackpool- in the Region by the South Pier
Tendring- in the Area by Clacton-On-The-Sea
Blackpool- in the Region That Falls between Waterloo Road and St Chad’s Station
Coventry- In the Area around Hillmorton Road In Henly
Blackpool- In Woolman Road As Well As Clinton Avenue
Waveney- In the Location of the South Pier in Lowestoft
Blackpool-Around the Cookson Street
Kingston upon Hull- near St John’s Grove
North East Lincolnshire- In the Area That Is Around Oxford Street in Grimsby
Burnley- The Area That Falls On Tay Street and Howard Street
Burnley- The Region That Lies Between Belvedere Road and the Church Street
Mansfield- In Sandy Lane
Blackpool- In Carshalton Road As Well As Clevedon Road
Blackburn with Darwen- The Region of Wensley Fold
Great Yarmouth- By the Seafront

https://livingwagecommission.org.uk/poorest-uk-places/

Of course the Anglobrits will insist this is down to the generosity and wisdom of successive UK governments, whose consistent qualities everyone can agree have been generosity and wisdom.

Thanks.

I'll have to go see Sandy Lane, Mansfield.

Its the only traditional industrial area on the list.

It looks okay here:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Sandy+Ln,+Mansfield/@53.1464853,-1.1849489,503m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m6!3m5!1s0x4879bdc018520ac3:0x293a76b078e8d817!8m2!3d53.1464821!4d-1.182374!16s/g/1td09glt?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI1MDExNS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw==

SandyRentool · January 18

kinabalu said:

ManOfGwent said:

Theuniondivvie said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Or the UK has been remarkably bad at closing the gap in its English regions. I believe 30 years ago most of the top ten most deprived areas in the UK were in Scotland, now:

Top twenty most deprived regions in the UK

Tendring- around St Osyth and Seawick
Blackpool- the Area near The Central Pier
Blackpool- Around the Promenade by the North Pier
Thanet- In Cliftonville West
Blackpool- in the Region by the South Pier
Tendring- in the Area by Clacton-On-The-Sea
Blackpool- in the Region That Falls between Waterloo Road and St Chad’s Station
Coventry- In the Area around Hillmorton Road In Henly
Blackpool- In Woolman Road As Well As Clinton Avenue
Waveney- In the Location of the South Pier in Lowestoft
Blackpool-Around the Cookson Street
Kingston upon Hull- near St John’s Grove
North East Lincolnshire- In the Area That Is Around Oxford Street in Grimsby
Burnley- The Area That Falls On Tay Street and Howard Street
Burnley- The Region That Lies Between Belvedere Road and the Church Street
Mansfield- In Sandy Lane
Blackpool- In Carshalton Road As Well As Clevedon Road
Blackburn with Darwen- The Region of Wensley Fold
Great Yarmouth- By the Seafront

https://livingwagecommission.org.uk/poorest-uk-places/

Of course the Anglobrits will insist this is down to the generosity and wisdom of successive UK governments, whose consistent qualities everyone can agree have been generosity and wisdom.
The fact that Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil are not on that list makes me seriously question it's accuracy.
Well I can vouch for "Great Yarmouth, by the Seafront". That's grim.

We had a nice holiday there in 1979.

noneoftheabove · January 18

Theuniondivvie said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Or the UK has been remarkably bad at closing the gap in its English regions. I believe 30 years ago most of the top ten most deprived areas in the UK were in Scotland, now:

Top twenty most deprived regions in the UK

Tendring- around St Osyth and Seawick
Blackpool- the Area near The Central Pier
Blackpool- Around the Promenade by the North Pier
Thanet- In Cliftonville West
Blackpool- in the Region by the South Pier
Tendring- in the Area by Clacton-On-The-Sea
Blackpool- in the Region That Falls between Waterloo Road and St Chad’s Station
Coventry- In the Area around Hillmorton Road In Henly
Blackpool- In Woolman Road As Well As Clinton Avenue
Waveney- In the Location of the South Pier in Lowestoft
Blackpool-Around the Cookson Street
Kingston upon Hull- near St John’s Grove
North East Lincolnshire- In the Area That Is Around Oxford Street in Grimsby
Burnley- The Area That Falls On Tay Street and Howard Street
Burnley- The Region That Lies Between Belvedere Road and the Church Street
Mansfield- In Sandy Lane
Blackpool- In Carshalton Road As Well As Clevedon Road
Blackburn with Darwen- The Region of Wensley Fold
Great Yarmouth- By the Seafront

https://livingwagecommission.org.uk/poorest-uk-places/

Of course the Anglobrits will insist this is down to the generosity and wisdom of successive UK governments, whose consistent qualities everyone can agree have been generosity and wisdom.

Mad idea. Turn Blackpool, Margate and Yarmouth into resorts to attract Spanish families on holiday seeking to escape the summer heat from global warming. Stuff them full of tapas restaurants and flamenco bars. No idea what to do with Burnley, sorry.

DecrepiterJohnL · January 18

kinabalu said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Trump's inauguration being moved inside will presumably limit numbers so whether Liz Truss gets bumped...
Is it really weather or is security a factor? It being Trump.

Extreme cold has been forecast in Washington DC on inauguration day, with temperatures expected to hit a low of -11°C (12°F) and a high of -5°C (23°F). With wind chill factored in, the temperature will feel significantly colder.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ceq9917rl18o

GIN1138 · January 18

The one thing both the Canadian and German general elections have in common is that both incumbent governments are going to be thrown out...

MattW · January 18

kamski said:

Fishing said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Not recently. There were big improvements in the fifteen years after the fall of Communism, probably due to the imposition of West German property rights and laws on the East, but relative improvements pretty much stopped in the 2010s with the East still about a quarter poorer than the West.

Regions that level up do so not because of subsidies from the centre, but because they have governments that are pro-enterprise and pro-growth. For example, the South and Mountain West of the United States which have closed much of the income gap with the rest of the US since World War II - both those regions DO in fact receive significant federal subsidies, like the North of England or Eastern Germany, but they also both have vigorous entrepreneurial cultures and lighter regulation on such matters as planning (or zoning as Americans call it) in a way that their European counterparts simply do not. That's the crucial factor, not the magnitude of subsidies, many of which at best have small effects and at worst throttle whatever enterprise and initiative survives in the poorer regions.

Another important factor is genuine autonomy in regional government, allowing them to innovate and make mistakes, in a way which is totally alien to us in Britain, but which has let Texas, say, be pro-growth while California happily regulates itself to stagnation.
To go from about 35% or west german GDP per capita to about 80% is still a huge improvement, surely much bigger than anything in the UK. The main reason it has stalled recently is because of the lower productivity in the East, and one of the main reasons for this is because of the brain drain from East to West. This brain drain would have been worse without government support. I don't think there is any serious doubt that without the fiscal flow from West to East, the new Bundesländer would be far worse off today.

edited to add "federal subsidies, like the North of England or Eastern Germany" makes it sound like the north of england has had the same fiscal support as East Germany since 1991, which is surely not even close to right?

Indeedy.

The difference in investment N/S (especially London) in transport is stark.

noneoftheabove · January 18

GIN1138 said:
The one thing both the Canadian and German general elections have in common is that both incumbent governments are going to be thrown out...

Thats the biggest win of Putins war with Ukraine. Virtually every western government has been kicked out, with the common theme high inflation.

Malmesbury · January 18

Stuartinromford said:

Malmesbury said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:
Trump administration to begin deportation of illegal immigrants on day one starting in Chicago
I thought Elon Musk lived in Texas?
1) ICE is deporting immigrants all the time. Every single day. Will there actually be a change?
2) Chicago is Sanctuary City. In American terms, this means that the city authorities don’t cooperate with ICE at an official level. So a local cop reporting an illegal to ICE will actually be disciplined for breaking the rules of his/her job. Stepping up deportations from Chicago will entail a big fight between Federal and local authorities. Grist to the MAGA mill.

The Overton window on deportation has really shifted in the US. According to a poll the other day, half support mass deportation of everyone illegal.

Even a few years ago that would have been about 10%

The Sanctuary City thing is a response to this.
In other words, picking the fight is the aim of the exercise.

At least partly, yes.

Basic politics - make your opponents publicly oppose. The Sanctuary City stuff is largely below the everyday news radar - and it’s designed to be.

another_richard · January 18

MattW said:

kamski said:

Fishing said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Not recently. There were big improvements in the fifteen years after the fall of Communism, probably due to the imposition of West German property rights and laws on the East, but relative improvements pretty much stopped in the 2010s with the East still about a quarter poorer than the West.

Regions that level up do so not because of subsidies from the centre, but because they have governments that are pro-enterprise and pro-growth. For example, the South and Mountain West of the United States which have closed much of the income gap with the rest of the US since World War II - both those regions DO in fact receive significant federal subsidies, like the North of England or Eastern Germany, but they also both have vigorous entrepreneurial cultures and lighter regulation on such matters as planning (or zoning as Americans call it) in a way that their European counterparts simply do not. That's the crucial factor, not the magnitude of subsidies, many of which at best have small effects and at worst throttle whatever enterprise and initiative survives in the poorer regions.

Another important factor is genuine autonomy in regional government, allowing them to innovate and make mistakes, in a way which is totally alien to us in Britain, but which has let Texas, say, be pro-growth while California happily regulates itself to stagnation.
To go from about 35% or west german GDP per capita to about 80% is still a huge improvement, surely much bigger than anything in the UK. The main reason it has stalled recently is because of the lower productivity in the East, and one of the main reasons for this is because of the brain drain from East to West. This brain drain would have been worse without government support. I don't think there is any serious doubt that without the fiscal flow from West to East, the new Bundesländer would be far worse off today.

edited to add "federal subsidies, like the North of England or Eastern Germany" makes it sound like the north of england has had the same fiscal support as East Germany since 1991, which is surely not even close to right?
Indeedy.

The difference in investment N/S (especially London) in transport is stark.

Build roads. Build roads. Build roads.

Build roads and investment follows.

London doesn't benefit from new roads therefore road building isn't approved of.

JosiasJessop · January 18

another_richard said:
Another legacy of Merkel.

I'm old enough to remember when every 'centrist dad' idolised her as the personification of 'good government'.

I dare you to find a post where I've praised her, let alone 'idolised' her.

From memory, the only thing I've praised her for was being a political survivor. Until she was not.

Alphabet_Soup · January 18

Malmesbury said:

Stuartinromford said:

Malmesbury said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:
Trump administration to begin deportation of illegal immigrants on day one starting in Chicago
I thought Elon Musk lived in Texas?
1) ICE is deporting immigrants all the time. Every single day. Will there actually be a change?
2) Chicago is Sanctuary City. In American terms, this means that the city authorities don’t cooperate with ICE at an official level. So a local cop reporting an illegal to ICE will actually be disciplined for breaking the rules of his/her job. Stepping up deportations from Chicago will entail a big fight between Federal and local authorities. Grist to the MAGA mill.

The Overton window on deportation has really shifted in the US. According to a poll the other day, half support mass deportation of everyone illegal.

Even a few years ago that would have been about 10%

The Sanctuary City thing is a response to this.
In other words, picking the fight is the aim of the exercise.
At least partly, yes.

Basic politics - make your opponents publicly oppose. The Sanctuary City stuff is largely below the everyday news radar - and it’s designed to be.

My relatives in New York had an undocumented central American cleaner for a while. She arrived in a car with two guys who parked outside while she worked. After a couple of hours skivvying they drove her away again. I've often puzzled about the economics of this.

Malmesbury · January 18

boulay said:

Malmesbury said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:
Trump administration to begin deportation of illegal immigrants on day one starting in Chicago
I thought Elon Musk lived in Texas?
1) ICE is deporting immigrants all the time. Every single day. Will there actually be a change?
2) Chicago is Sanctuary City. In American terms, this means that the city authorities don’t cooperate with ICE at an official level. So a local cop reporting an illegal to ICE will actually be disciplined for breaking the rules of his/her job. Stepping up deportations from Chicago will entail a big fight between Federal and local authorities. Grist to the MAGA mill.

The Overton window on deportation has really shifted in the US. According to a poll the other day, half support mass deportation of everyone illegal.

Even a few years ago that would have been about 10%

The Sanctuary City thing is a response to this.
Will there be tears about not being able to get staff to wash dishes in hotels and restaurants, a shortage of short order and fast food cooks, the lack of domestic cleaners, prices of legal gardeners going through the roof and crops not getting picked in time.

Am I outdated to think that many of the shitty jobs are done by illegal immigrants where their removal will directly affect them by removal/reduction of services and price increases as staffing costs shoot up through reduced supply. Or is there a surfeit of documented people willing to do grim jobs for peanuts?

Unknown on most of that. Staffing costs in the US have already gone through the roof. Driving inflation in food and other everyday items.

A common thing is that eating out used to be cheap in many parts of the US. Since COVID, the cost has rocketed. Which is the kind of inflation that really, really gets noticed.

Ironically, “AI” is coming for many of the shitty jobs.

Something to understand about the general immigration argument in the US. We discuss whether immigrants have suppressed wages in the U.K.

In the US, companies have bought in workers on H1B visas, and forced their American workers to train them up. With the explicit and announced plan of sending the immigrant workers back to India etc - fire the current workforce. Yes, that in-your-face.

Similar stuff happened with NAFTA and the Southern border.

Such practices have fuelled… well, you can fill in the rest.

rottenborough · January 18

Malmesbury said:

Stuartinromford said:

Malmesbury said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:
Trump administration to begin deportation of illegal immigrants on day one starting in Chicago
I thought Elon Musk lived in Texas?
1) ICE is deporting immigrants all the time. Every single day. Will there actually be a change?
2) Chicago is Sanctuary City. In American terms, this means that the city authorities don’t cooperate with ICE at an official level. So a local cop reporting an illegal to ICE will actually be disciplined for breaking the rules of his/her job. Stepping up deportations from Chicago will entail a big fight between Federal and local authorities. Grist to the MAGA mill.

The Overton window on deportation has really shifted in the US. According to a poll the other day, half support mass deportation of everyone illegal.

Even a few years ago that would have been about 10%

The Sanctuary City thing is a response to this.
In other words, picking the fight is the aim of the exercise.
At least partly, yes.

Basic politics - make your opponents publicly oppose. The Sanctuary City stuff is largely below the everyday news radar - and it’s designed to be.

Have Trump 2.0 aides worked out how to keep american farming going if they deport all the undocumented?

Alphabet_Soup · January 18

noneoftheabove said:

Theuniondivvie said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Or the UK has been remarkably bad at closing the gap in its English regions. I believe 30 years ago most of the top ten most deprived areas in the UK were in Scotland, now:

Top twenty most deprived regions in the UK

Tendring- around St Osyth and Seawick
Blackpool- the Area near The Central Pier
Blackpool- Around the Promenade by the North Pier
Thanet- In Cliftonville West
Blackpool- in the Region by the South Pier
Tendring- in the Area by Clacton-On-The-Sea
Blackpool- in the Region That Falls between Waterloo Road and St Chad’s Station
Coventry- In the Area around Hillmorton Road In Henly
Blackpool- In Woolman Road As Well As Clinton Avenue
Waveney- In the Location of the South Pier in Lowestoft
Blackpool-Around the Cookson Street
Kingston upon Hull- near St John’s Grove
North East Lincolnshire- In the Area That Is Around Oxford Street in Grimsby
Burnley- The Area That Falls On Tay Street and Howard Street
Burnley- The Region That Lies Between Belvedere Road and the Church Street
Mansfield- In Sandy Lane
Blackpool- In Carshalton Road As Well As Clevedon Road
Blackburn with Darwen- The Region of Wensley Fold
Great Yarmouth- By the Seafront

https://livingwagecommission.org.uk/poorest-uk-places/

Of course the Anglobrits will insist this is down to the generosity and wisdom of successive UK governments, whose consistent qualities everyone can agree have been generosity and wisdom.
Mad idea. Turn Blackpool, Margate and Yarmouth into resorts to attract Spanish families on holiday seeking to escape the summer heat from global warming. Stuff them full of tapas restaurants and flamenco bars. No idea what to do with Burnley, sorry.

Sell the football club to Taylor Swift?

MattW · January 18

ManOfGwent said:

Theuniondivvie said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Or the UK has been remarkably bad at closing the gap in its English regions. I believe 30 years ago most of the top ten most deprived areas in the UK were in Scotland, now:

Top twenty most deprived regions in the UK

Tendring- around St Osyth and Seawick
Blackpool- the Area near The Central Pier
Blackpool- Around the Promenade by the North Pier
Thanet- In Cliftonville West
Blackpool- in the Region by the South Pier
Tendring- in the Area by Clacton-On-The-Sea
Blackpool- in the Region That Falls between Waterloo Road and St Chad’s Station
Coventry- In the Area around Hillmorton Road In Henly
Blackpool- In Woolman Road As Well As Clinton Avenue
Waveney- In the Location of the South Pier in Lowestoft
Blackpool-Around the Cookson Street
Kingston upon Hull- near St John’s Grove
North East Lincolnshire- In the Area That Is Around Oxford Street in Grimsby
Burnley- The Area That Falls On Tay Street and Howard Street
Burnley- The Region That Lies Between Belvedere Road and the Church Street
Mansfield- In Sandy Lane
Blackpool- In Carshalton Road As Well As Clevedon Road
Blackburn with Darwen- The Region of Wensley Fold
Great Yarmouth- By the Seafront

https://livingwagecommission.org.uk/poorest-uk-places/

Of course the Anglobrits will insist this is down to the generosity and wisdom of successive UK governments, whose consistent qualities everyone can agree have been generosity and wisdom.
The fact that Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil are not on that list makes me seriously question it's accuracy.

For a single area of Mansfield to be on that list, Sandy Lane is a little strange. I can think of others I would put are more deprived. Some strange statistical artefacts, perhaps.

noneoftheabove · January 18

Alphabet_Soup said:

noneoftheabove said:

Theuniondivvie said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Or the UK has been remarkably bad at closing the gap in its English regions. I believe 30 years ago most of the top ten most deprived areas in the UK were in Scotland, now:

Top twenty most deprived regions in the UK

Tendring- around St Osyth and Seawick
Blackpool- the Area near The Central Pier
Blackpool- Around the Promenade by the North Pier
Thanet- In Cliftonville West
Blackpool- in the Region by the South Pier
Tendring- in the Area by Clacton-On-The-Sea
Blackpool- in the Region That Falls between Waterloo Road and St Chad’s Station
Coventry- In the Area around Hillmorton Road In Henly
Blackpool- In Woolman Road As Well As Clinton Avenue
Waveney- In the Location of the South Pier in Lowestoft
Blackpool-Around the Cookson Street
Kingston upon Hull- near St John’s Grove
North East Lincolnshire- In the Area That Is Around Oxford Street in Grimsby
Burnley- The Area That Falls On Tay Street and Howard Street
Burnley- The Region That Lies Between Belvedere Road and the Church Street
Mansfield- In Sandy Lane
Blackpool- In Carshalton Road As Well As Clevedon Road
Blackburn with Darwen- The Region of Wensley Fold
Great Yarmouth- By the Seafront

https://livingwagecommission.org.uk/poorest-uk-places/

Of course the Anglobrits will insist this is down to the generosity and wisdom of successive UK governments, whose consistent qualities everyone can agree have been generosity and wisdom.
Mad idea. Turn Blackpool, Margate and Yarmouth into resorts to attract Spanish families on holiday seeking to escape the summer heat from global warming. Stuff them full of tapas restaurants and flamenco bars. No idea what to do with Burnley, sorry.
Sell the football club to Taylor Swift?

If that were an option the council should pay Ms Swift 10% of their budget to take it over.

rottenborough · January 18

noneoftheabove said:

Theuniondivvie said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Or the UK has been remarkably bad at closing the gap in its English regions. I believe 30 years ago most of the top ten most deprived areas in the UK were in Scotland, now:

Top twenty most deprived regions in the UK

Tendring- around St Osyth and Seawick
Blackpool- the Area near The Central Pier
Blackpool- Around the Promenade by the North Pier
Thanet- In Cliftonville West
Blackpool- in the Region by the South Pier
Tendring- in the Area by Clacton-On-The-Sea
Blackpool- in the Region That Falls between Waterloo Road and St Chad’s Station
Coventry- In the Area around Hillmorton Road In Henly
Blackpool- In Woolman Road As Well As Clinton Avenue
Waveney- In the Location of the South Pier in Lowestoft
Blackpool-Around the Cookson Street
Kingston upon Hull- near St John’s Grove
North East Lincolnshire- In the Area That Is Around Oxford Street in Grimsby
Burnley- The Area That Falls On Tay Street and Howard Street
Burnley- The Region That Lies Between Belvedere Road and the Church Street
Mansfield- In Sandy Lane
Blackpool- In Carshalton Road As Well As Clevedon Road
Blackburn with Darwen- The Region of Wensley Fold
Great Yarmouth- By the Seafront

https://livingwagecommission.org.uk/poorest-uk-places/

Of course the Anglobrits will insist this is down to the generosity and wisdom of successive UK governments, whose consistent qualities everyone can agree have been generosity and wisdom.
Mad idea. Turn Blackpool, Margate and Yarmouth into resorts to attract Spanish families on holiday seeking to escape the summer heat from global warming. Stuff them full of tapas restaurants and flamenco bars. No idea what to do with Burnley, sorry.

New Labour wanted to turn it into Vegas by building a super casino.

Carnyx · January 18

Malmesbury said:

boulay said:

Malmesbury said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:
Trump administration to begin deportation of illegal immigrants on day one starting in Chicago
I thought Elon Musk lived in Texas?
1) ICE is deporting immigrants all the time. Every single day. Will there actually be a change?
2) Chicago is Sanctuary City. In American terms, this means that the city authorities don’t cooperate with ICE at an official level. So a local cop reporting an illegal to ICE will actually be disciplined for breaking the rules of his/her job. Stepping up deportations from Chicago will entail a big fight between Federal and local authorities. Grist to the MAGA mill.

The Overton window on deportation has really shifted in the US. According to a poll the other day, half support mass deportation of everyone illegal.

Even a few years ago that would have been about 10%

The Sanctuary City thing is a response to this.
Will there be tears about not being able to get staff to wash dishes in hotels and restaurants, a shortage of short order and fast food cooks, the lack of domestic cleaners, prices of legal gardeners going through the roof and crops not getting picked in time.

Am I outdated to think that many of the shitty jobs are done by illegal immigrants where their removal will directly affect them by removal/reduction of services and price increases as staffing costs shoot up through reduced supply. Or is there a surfeit of documented people willing to do grim jobs for peanuts?
Unknown on most of that. Staffing costs in the US have already gone through the roof. Driving inflation in food and other everyday items.

A common thing is that eating out used to be cheap in many parts of the US. Since COVID, the cost has rocketed. Which is the kind of inflation that really, really gets noticed.

Ironically, “AI” is coming for many of the shitty jobs.

Something to understand about the general immigration argument in the US. We discuss whether immigrants have suppressed wages in the U.K.

In the US, companies have bought in workers on H1B visas, and forced their American workers to train them up. With the explicit and announced plan of sending the immigrant workers back to India etc - fire the current workforce. Yes, that in-your-face.

Similar stuff happened with NAFTA and the Southern border.

Such practices have fuelled… well, you can fill in the rest.

Hang on, I don't understand your para 5. Bring in workers on H1B, train them,. send them home?

MattW · January 18

another_richard said:

MattW said:

kamski said:

Fishing said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Not recently. There were big improvements in the fifteen years after the fall of Communism, probably due to the imposition of West German property rights and laws on the East, but relative improvements pretty much stopped in the 2010s with the East still about a quarter poorer than the West.

Regions that level up do so not because of subsidies from the centre, but because they have governments that are pro-enterprise and pro-growth. For example, the South and Mountain West of the United States which have closed much of the income gap with the rest of the US since World War II - both those regions DO in fact receive significant federal subsidies, like the North of England or Eastern Germany, but they also both have vigorous entrepreneurial cultures and lighter regulation on such matters as planning (or zoning as Americans call it) in a way that their European counterparts simply do not. That's the crucial factor, not the magnitude of subsidies, many of which at best have small effects and at worst throttle whatever enterprise and initiative survives in the poorer regions.

Another important factor is genuine autonomy in regional government, allowing them to innovate and make mistakes, in a way which is totally alien to us in Britain, but which has let Texas, say, be pro-growth while California happily regulates itself to stagnation.
To go from about 35% or west german GDP per capita to about 80% is still a huge improvement, surely much bigger than anything in the UK. The main reason it has stalled recently is because of the lower productivity in the East, and one of the main reasons for this is because of the brain drain from East to West. This brain drain would have been worse without government support. I don't think there is any serious doubt that without the fiscal flow from West to East, the new Bundesländer would be far worse off today.

edited to add "federal subsidies, like the North of England or Eastern Germany" makes it sound like the north of england has had the same fiscal support as East Germany since 1991, which is surely not even close to right?
Indeedy.

The difference in investment N/S (especially London) in transport is stark.
Build roads. Build roads. Build roads.

Build roads and investment follows.

London doesn't benefit from new roads therefore road building isn't approved of.

Our national obsession with roads is a descending spiral.

We need to invest in alternatives to relieve the pressure, and give options.

rottenborough · January 18

Malmesbury said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:
Trump administration to begin deportation of illegal immigrants on day one starting in Chicago
I thought Elon Musk lived in Texas?
1) ICE is deporting immigrants all the time. Every single day. Will there actually be a change?
2) Chicago is Sanctuary City. In American terms, this means that the city authorities don’t cooperate with ICE at an official level. So a local cop reporting an illegal to ICE will actually be disciplined for breaking the rules of his/her job. Stepping up deportations from Chicago will entail a big fight between Federal and local authorities. Grist to the MAGA mill.

The Overton window on deportation has really shifted in the US. According to a poll the other day, half support mass deportation of everyone illegal.

Even a few years ago that would have been about 10%

The Sanctuary City thing is a response to this.

NY Times reporting this will be called “Operation Safeguard” and involve ≈ 150 officers.

noneoftheabove · January 18

rottenborough said:

noneoftheabove said:

Theuniondivvie said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Or the UK has been remarkably bad at closing the gap in its English regions. I believe 30 years ago most of the top ten most deprived areas in the UK were in Scotland, now:

Top twenty most deprived regions in the UK

Tendring- around St Osyth and Seawick
Blackpool- the Area near The Central Pier
Blackpool- Around the Promenade by the North Pier
Thanet- In Cliftonville West
Blackpool- in the Region by the South Pier
Tendring- in the Area by Clacton-On-The-Sea
Blackpool- in the Region That Falls between Waterloo Road and St Chad’s Station
Coventry- In the Area around Hillmorton Road In Henly
Blackpool- In Woolman Road As Well As Clinton Avenue
Waveney- In the Location of the South Pier in Lowestoft
Blackpool-Around the Cookson Street
Kingston upon Hull- near St John’s Grove
North East Lincolnshire- In the Area That Is Around Oxford Street in Grimsby
Burnley- The Area That Falls On Tay Street and Howard Street
Burnley- The Region That Lies Between Belvedere Road and the Church Street
Mansfield- In Sandy Lane
Blackpool- In Carshalton Road As Well As Clevedon Road
Blackburn with Darwen- The Region of Wensley Fold
Great Yarmouth- By the Seafront

https://livingwagecommission.org.uk/poorest-uk-places/

Of course the Anglobrits will insist this is down to the generosity and wisdom of successive UK governments, whose consistent qualities everyone can agree have been generosity and wisdom.
Mad idea. Turn Blackpool, Margate and Yarmouth into resorts to attract Spanish families on holiday seeking to escape the summer heat from global warming. Stuff them full of tapas restaurants and flamenco bars. No idea what to do with Burnley, sorry.
New Labour wanted to turn it into Vegas by building a super casino.

Not sure the Brits can pull off Vegas. It needs to be brash, loud but also fun and welcoming, best left to the Americans.

HYUFD · January 18

GIN1138 said:
The one thing both the Canadian and German general elections have in common is that both incumbent governments are going to be thrown out...

In Canada most likely, in Germany however the SPD will probably stay in government but as minority partner to the CDU/CSU rather than largest party as now due to PR. In Australia Labor will probably scrape home but lose their majority and need confidence and supply from the Teal Independents

rottenborough · January 18

Julian Jessop
@julianHjessop

"Are the IMF's latest forecasts really good news for Rachel Reeves?"

ICYMI, here's a short blog explaining why it was a mistake for Labour supporters to draw so much attention to those IMF numbers... 🤔

https://julianhjessop.com/2025/01/17/are-the-imfs-latest-forecasts-really-good-news-for-rachel-reeves/

https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1880538382704726022

Malmesbury · January 18

rottenborough said:

Malmesbury said:

Stuartinromford said:

Malmesbury said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:
Trump administration to begin deportation of illegal immigrants on day one starting in Chicago
I thought Elon Musk lived in Texas?
1) ICE is deporting immigrants all the time. Every single day. Will there actually be a change?
2) Chicago is Sanctuary City. In American terms, this means that the city authorities don’t cooperate with ICE at an official level. So a local cop reporting an illegal to ICE will actually be disciplined for breaking the rules of his/her job. Stepping up deportations from Chicago will entail a big fight between Federal and local authorities. Grist to the MAGA mill.

The Overton window on deportation has really shifted in the US. According to a poll the other day, half support mass deportation of everyone illegal.

Even a few years ago that would have been about 10%

The Sanctuary City thing is a response to this.
In other words, picking the fight is the aim of the exercise.
At least partly, yes.

Basic politics - make your opponents publicly oppose. The Sanctuary City stuff is largely below the everyday news radar - and it’s designed to be.
Have Trump 2.0 aides worked out how to keep american farming going if they deport all the undocumented?

Aside from the usual incompetence, worth noting the farming areas that are pro MAGA and those that are not.

Wheat and cattle don’t use lots of cheap labour.

another_richard · January 18

JosiasJessop said:

another_richard said:
Another legacy of Merkel.

I'm old enough to remember when every 'centrist dad' idolised her as the personification of 'good government'.
I dare you to find a post where I've praised her, let alone 'idolised' her.

From memory, the only thing I've praised her for was being a political survivor. Until she was not.

This doesn't age well:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/07/ten-reasons-angela-merkel-germany-chancellor-world-most-powerful-woman

It praises Merkel for getting ride of nuclear power, defence cuts and:

Merkel has scored points for her foreign policy endeavours, most recently ensuring that she is in constant dialogue with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, over the Crimea dispute. Thanks to her East German upbringing she knows Russian culture well and speaks Russian to an excellent standard, and while she is no fan of Putin the person (he reportedly lets his labrador loose around her, despite knowing of her fear of dogs), she sees it as her duty to keep communicating with him. She has emphasised to other western leaders that pressurising him too much could push Russia into political and economic chaos, which would be good neither for Russia, Germany nor Europe.

Malmesbury · January 18

rottenborough said:

Malmesbury said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:
Trump administration to begin deportation of illegal immigrants on day one starting in Chicago
I thought Elon Musk lived in Texas?
1) ICE is deporting immigrants all the time. Every single day. Will there actually be a change?
2) Chicago is Sanctuary City. In American terms, this means that the city authorities don’t cooperate with ICE at an official level. So a local cop reporting an illegal to ICE will actually be disciplined for breaking the rules of his/her job. Stepping up deportations from Chicago will entail a big fight between Federal and local authorities. Grist to the MAGA mill.

The Overton window on deportation has really shifted in the US. According to a poll the other day, half support mass deportation of everyone illegal.

Even a few years ago that would have been about 10%

The Sanctuary City thing is a response to this.
NY Times reporting this will be called “Operation Safeguard” and involve ≈ 150 officers.

So a minor spike in ICE operations. Performative bullshit to get the counter protestors out and create a narrative on the evening news.

DecrepiterJohnL · January 18

rottenborough said:

noneoftheabove said:

Theuniondivvie said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Or the UK has been remarkably bad at closing the gap in its English regions. I believe 30 years ago most of the top ten most deprived areas in the UK were in Scotland, now:

Top twenty most deprived regions in the UK

Tendring- around St Osyth and Seawick
Blackpool- the Area near The Central Pier
Blackpool- Around the Promenade by the North Pier
Thanet- In Cliftonville West
Blackpool- in the Region by the South Pier
Tendring- in the Area by Clacton-On-The-Sea
Blackpool- in the Region That Falls between Waterloo Road and St Chad’s Station
Coventry- In the Area around Hillmorton Road In Henly
Blackpool- In Woolman Road As Well As Clinton Avenue
Waveney- In the Location of the South Pier in Lowestoft
Blackpool-Around the Cookson Street
Kingston upon Hull- near St John’s Grove
North East Lincolnshire- In the Area That Is Around Oxford Street in Grimsby
Burnley- The Area That Falls On Tay Street and Howard Street
Burnley- The Region That Lies Between Belvedere Road and the Church Street
Mansfield- In Sandy Lane
Blackpool- In Carshalton Road As Well As Clevedon Road
Blackburn with Darwen- The Region of Wensley Fold
Great Yarmouth- By the Seafront

https://livingwagecommission.org.uk/poorest-uk-places/

Of course the Anglobrits will insist this is down to the generosity and wisdom of successive UK governments, whose consistent qualities everyone can agree have been generosity and wisdom.
Mad idea. Turn Blackpool, Margate and Yarmouth into resorts to attract Spanish families on holiday seeking to escape the summer heat from global warming. Stuff them full of tapas restaurants and flamenco bars. No idea what to do with Burnley, sorry.
New Labour wanted to turn it into Vegas by building a super casino.

A Conservative select committee member opined there was no need for consumer protection because free market competition would sort it out, ignoring that competition would select for profit not the one that turned away most mugs, and in any case New Labour super casinos were to have regional monopolies so there would not be any competition anyway.

Sometimes I despair of MPs and their devotion to concepts they do not understand.

another_richard · January 18

rottenborough said:

Julian Jessop
@julianHjessop

"Are the IMF's latest forecasts really good news for Rachel Reeves?"

ICYMI, here's a short blog explaining why it was a mistake for Labour supporters to draw so much attention to those IMF numbers... 🤔

https://julianhjessop.com/2025/01/17/are-the-imfs-latest-forecasts-really-good-news-for-rachel-reeves/

https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1880538382704726022

The IMF forecasts aren't good for the UK.

They're just less bad than they are for France, Germany and Italy.

Northern_Al · January 18

rottenborough said:

Julian Jessop
@julianHjessop

"Are the IMF's latest forecasts really good news for Rachel Reeves?"

ICYMI, here's a short blog explaining why it was a mistake for Labour supporters to draw so much attention to those IMF numbers... 🤔

https://julianhjessop.com/2025/01/17/are-the-imfs-latest-forecasts-really-good-news-for-rachel-reeves/

https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1880538382704726022

That will be the same Julian Jessop who advised Truss/Kwarteng on their mini-budget? Hm.

MattW · January 18

another_richard said:

Theuniondivvie said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Or the UK has been remarkably bad at closing the gap in its English regions. I believe 30 years ago most of the top ten most deprived areas in the UK were in Scotland, now:

Top twenty most deprived regions in the UK

Tendring- around St Osyth and Seawick
Blackpool- the Area near The Central Pier
Blackpool- Around the Promenade by the North Pier
Thanet- In Cliftonville West
Blackpool- in the Region by the South Pier
Tendring- in the Area by Clacton-On-The-Sea
Blackpool- in the Region That Falls between Waterloo Road and St Chad’s Station
Coventry- In the Area around Hillmorton Road In Henly
Blackpool- In Woolman Road As Well As Clinton Avenue
Waveney- In the Location of the South Pier in Lowestoft
Blackpool-Around the Cookson Street
Kingston upon Hull- near St John’s Grove
North East Lincolnshire- In the Area That Is Around Oxford Street in Grimsby
Burnley- The Area That Falls On Tay Street and Howard Street
Burnley- The Region That Lies Between Belvedere Road and the Church Street
Mansfield- In Sandy Lane
Blackpool- In Carshalton Road As Well As Clevedon Road
Blackburn with Darwen- The Region of Wensley Fold
Great Yarmouth- By the Seafront

https://livingwagecommission.org.uk/poorest-uk-places/

Of course the Anglobrits will insist this is down to the generosity and wisdom of successive UK governments, whose consistent qualities everyone can agree have been generosity and wisdom.
Thanks.

I'll have to go see Sandy Lane, Mansfield.

Its the only traditional industrial area on the list.

It looks okay here:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Sandy+Ln,+Mansfield/@53.1464853,-1.1849489,503m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m6!3m5!1s0x4879bdc018520ac3:0x293a76b078e8d817!8m2!3d53.1464821!4d-1.182374!16s/g/1td09glt?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI1MDExNS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw==

On the Index of Multiple Deprivation Data, the whole area listed as being in the 2nd most deprived decile, not the 1st - that is strange for a "top 20".
https://mapmaker.cdrc.ac.uk/#/index-of-multiple-deprivation?d=11110000&m=imdh19_dc&lon=-1.1814&lat=53.1464&zoom=15

So something funny is going on.

I'm listed as being the second most deprived decile, too. Although the other end of my road is in the 3rd most deprived, just one house beyond the other side (in the estate which is worse im) is in the 3rd most deprived too, and 100m away at the other end of a footpath is in the 2nd least deprived.

Artefacts of calculations with age of housing stock and ward boundaries, I would say, plus they may have drilled down to a single data item in the scorecard. Perhaps, given that the website listed is the "living wage something".

TimS · January 18

I don’t want to worry anyone, but I just spotted this

(BRACE)

ydoethur · January 18

TimS said:
I don’t want to worry anyone, but I just spotted this

(BRACE)

Getting ready for tomorrow?

HYUFD · January 18

Theuniondivvie said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Or the UK has been remarkably bad at closing the gap in its English regions. I believe 30 years ago most of the top ten most deprived areas in the UK were in Scotland, now:

Top twenty most deprived regions in the UK

Tendring- around St Osyth and Seawick
Blackpool- the Area near The Central Pier
Blackpool- Around the Promenade by the North Pier
Thanet- In Cliftonville West
Blackpool- in the Region by the South Pier
Tendring- in the Area by Clacton-On-The-Sea
Blackpool- in the Region That Falls between Waterloo Road and St Chad’s Station
Coventry- In the Area around Hillmorton Road In Henly
Blackpool- In Woolman Road As Well As Clinton Avenue
Waveney- In the Location of the South Pier in Lowestoft
Blackpool-Around the Cookson Street
Kingston upon Hull- near St John’s Grove
North East Lincolnshire- In the Area That Is Around Oxford Street in Grimsby
Burnley- The Area That Falls On Tay Street and Howard Street
Burnley- The Region That Lies Between Belvedere Road and the Church Street
Mansfield- In Sandy Lane
Blackpool- In Carshalton Road As Well As Clevedon Road
Blackburn with Darwen- The Region of Wensley Fold
Great Yarmouth- By the Seafront

https://livingwagecommission.org.uk/poorest-uk-places/

Of course the Anglobrits will insist this is down to the generosity and wisdom of successive UK governments, whose consistent qualities everyone can agree have been generosity and wisdom.

If Reeves imposed a massive rise in air passenger duty on all flights to Spain and Greece and Florida that would solve the problems of half those areas (certainly in summer)

Sunil_Prasannan · January 18

noneoftheabove said:

rottenborough said:

noneoftheabove said:

Theuniondivvie said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Or the UK has been remarkably bad at closing the gap in its English regions. I believe 30 years ago most of the top ten most deprived areas in the UK were in Scotland, now:

Top twenty most deprived regions in the UK

Tendring- around St Osyth and Seawick
Blackpool- the Area near The Central Pier
Blackpool- Around the Promenade by the North Pier
Thanet- In Cliftonville West
Blackpool- in the Region by the South Pier
Tendring- in the Area by Clacton-On-The-Sea
Blackpool- in the Region That Falls between Waterloo Road and St Chad’s Station
Coventry- In the Area around Hillmorton Road In Henly
Blackpool- In Woolman Road As Well As Clinton Avenue
Waveney- In the Location of the South Pier in Lowestoft
Blackpool-Around the Cookson Street
Kingston upon Hull- near St John’s Grove
North East Lincolnshire- In the Area That Is Around Oxford Street in Grimsby
Burnley- The Area That Falls On Tay Street and Howard Street
Burnley- The Region That Lies Between Belvedere Road and the Church Street
Mansfield- In Sandy Lane
Blackpool- In Carshalton Road As Well As Clevedon Road
Blackburn with Darwen- The Region of Wensley Fold
Great Yarmouth- By the Seafront

https://livingwagecommission.org.uk/poorest-uk-places/

Of course the Anglobrits will insist this is down to the generosity and wisdom of successive UK governments, whose consistent qualities everyone can agree have been generosity and wisdom.
Mad idea. Turn Blackpool, Margate and Yarmouth into resorts to attract Spanish families on holiday seeking to escape the summer heat from global warming. Stuff them full of tapas restaurants and flamenco bars. No idea what to do with Burnley, sorry.
New Labour wanted to turn it into Vegas by building a super casino.
Not sure the Brits can pull off Vegas. It needs to be brash, loud but also fun and welcoming, best left to the Americans.

Cowboy: Whoo! That is one crazy get-up, mister... Are you in the show?
Austin Powers: No, actually, I'm English.
Cowboy: Oh... I'm sorry.

RobD · January 18

Northern_Al said:

rottenborough said:

Julian Jessop
@julianHjessop

"Are the IMF's latest forecasts really good news for Rachel Reeves?"

ICYMI, here's a short blog explaining why it was a mistake for Labour supporters to draw so much attention to those IMF numbers... 🤔

https://julianhjessop.com/2025/01/17/are-the-imfs-latest-forecasts-really-good-news-for-rachel-reeves/

https://x.com/julianHjessop/status/1880538382704726022
That will be the same Julian Jessop who advised Truss/Kwarteng on their mini-budget? Hm.

A damning rebuttal.

kinabalu · January 18

SandyRentool said:

kinabalu said:

ManOfGwent said:

Theuniondivvie said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Or the UK has been remarkably bad at closing the gap in its English regions. I believe 30 years ago most of the top ten most deprived areas in the UK were in Scotland, now:

Top twenty most deprived regions in the UK

Tendring- around St Osyth and Seawick
Blackpool- the Area near The Central Pier
Blackpool- Around the Promenade by the North Pier
Thanet- In Cliftonville West
Blackpool- in the Region by the South Pier
Tendring- in the Area by Clacton-On-The-Sea
Blackpool- in the Region That Falls between Waterloo Road and St Chad’s Station
Coventry- In the Area around Hillmorton Road In Henly
Blackpool- In Woolman Road As Well As Clinton Avenue
Waveney- In the Location of the South Pier in Lowestoft
Blackpool-Around the Cookson Street
Kingston upon Hull- near St John’s Grove
North East Lincolnshire- In the Area That Is Around Oxford Street in Grimsby
Burnley- The Area That Falls On Tay Street and Howard Street
Burnley- The Region That Lies Between Belvedere Road and the Church Street
Mansfield- In Sandy Lane
Blackpool- In Carshalton Road As Well As Clevedon Road
Blackburn with Darwen- The Region of Wensley Fold
Great Yarmouth- By the Seafront

https://livingwagecommission.org.uk/poorest-uk-places/

Of course the Anglobrits will insist this is down to the generosity and wisdom of successive UK governments, whose consistent qualities everyone can agree have been generosity and wisdom.
The fact that Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil are not on that list makes me seriously question it's accuracy.
Well I can vouch for "Great Yarmouth, by the Seafront". That's grim.
We had a nice holiday there in 1979.

We went a couple of years ago. An awful lot of people not that old in mobility scooters.

ydoethur · January 18

HYUFD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Or the UK has been remarkably bad at closing the gap in its English regions. I believe 30 years ago most of the top ten most deprived areas in the UK were in Scotland, now:

Top twenty most deprived regions in the UK

Tendring- around St Osyth and Seawick
Blackpool- the Area near The Central Pier
Blackpool- Around the Promenade by the North Pier
Thanet- In Cliftonville West
Blackpool- in the Region by the South Pier
Tendring- in the Area by Clacton-On-The-Sea
Blackpool- in the Region That Falls between Waterloo Road and St Chad’s Station
Coventry- In the Area around Hillmorton Road In Henly
Blackpool- In Woolman Road As Well As Clinton Avenue
Waveney- In the Location of the South Pier in Lowestoft
Blackpool-Around the Cookson Street
Kingston upon Hull- near St John’s Grove
North East Lincolnshire- In the Area That Is Around Oxford Street in Grimsby
Burnley- The Area That Falls On Tay Street and Howard Street
Burnley- The Region That Lies Between Belvedere Road and the Church Street
Mansfield- In Sandy Lane
Blackpool- In Carshalton Road As Well As Clevedon Road
Blackburn with Darwen- The Region of Wensley Fold
Great Yarmouth- By the Seafront

https://livingwagecommission.org.uk/poorest-uk-places/

Of course the Anglobrits will insist this is down to the generosity and wisdom of successive UK governments, whose consistent qualities everyone can agree have been generosity and wisdom.
If Reeves imposed a massive rise in air passenger duty on all flights to Spain and Greece and Florida that would solve the problems of half those areas (certainly in summer)

It would also solve several problems for the Conservatives, including their chronic lack of popularity.

Is that why you're proposing it?

noneoftheabove · January 18

kinabalu said:

SandyRentool said:

kinabalu said:

ManOfGwent said:

Theuniondivvie said:

kamski said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Foxy said:

TimS said:
That’s what happens when you let the Russians rule you for a few decades.
That's why being so pro-Putin surprises me so much about the AfD.

He who pays the piper I suppose.
The point is that German governments will break the "Schwarze Null" (no deficit) rule for bailing out banks, fighting COVID, and supporting Ukraine, but not to raise living standards in the East to those of the West.
OTOH, Germany has been more successful in closing the gap between east and west, than the UK has been in closing the gap between richer and poorer regions in the UK.
Or the UK has been remarkably bad at closing the gap in its English regions. I believe 30 years ago most of the top ten most deprived areas in the UK were in Scotland, now:

Top twenty most deprived regions in the UK

Tendring- around St Osyth and Seawick
Blackpool- the Area near The Central Pier
Blackpool- Around the Promenade by the North Pier
Thanet- In Cliftonville West
Blackpool- in the Region by the South Pier
Tendring- in the Area by Clacton-On-The-Sea
Blackpool- in the Region That Falls between Waterloo Road and St Chad’s Station
Coventry- In the Area around Hillmorton Road In Henly
Blackpool- In Woolman Road As Well As Clinton Avenue
Waveney- In the Location of the South Pier in Lowestoft
Blackpool-Around the Cookson Street
Kingston upon Hull- near St John’s Grove
North East Lincolnshire- In the Area That Is Around Oxford Street in Grimsby
Burnley- The Area That Falls On Tay Street and Howard Street
Burnley- The Region That Lies Between Belvedere Road and the Church Street
Mansfield- In Sandy Lane
Blackpool- In Carshalton Road As Well As Clevedon Road
Blackburn with Darwen- The Region of Wensley Fold
Great Yarmouth- By the Seafront

https://livingwagecommission.org.uk/poorest-uk-places/

Of course the Anglobrits will insist this is down to the generosity and wisdom of successive UK governments, whose consistent qualities everyone can agree have been generosity and wisdom.
The fact that Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil are not on that list makes me seriously question it's accuracy.
Well I can vouch for "Great Yarmouth, by the Seafront". That's grim.
We had a nice holiday there in 1979.
We went a couple of years ago. An awful lot of people not that old in mobility scooters.

That was the bumper cars.

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