What Americans are expecting the election result to be and when – politicalbetting.com

Taz said:

MarqueeMark said:

So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

Spotify has a few.

Duran Duran and Election day and who was that guy who sang "i want to be elected" ? Ozzy Osborne ? That's another.

Scott_xP said:

Taz said:

MarqueeMark said:

So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

Spotify has a few.

Duran Duran and Election day and who was that guy who sang "i want to be elected" ? Ozzy Osborne ? That's another.

Duran Duran could also be Meet El Presidente

Pulpstar said:

Phil said:

rottenborough said:

Farage: "This is the sexy bit: Elon comes in and takes a knife to the [US] deep state. Just like when he bought Twitter he sacked 80 per cent of the staff.

There are going to be mass lay-offs, whole departments closing and I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond.

Because that’s what Reform UK believes in - that we’re over-bureaucratised and none of it works. This assault on the bureaucratic state is the thing that’s really exciting."

Really? That's what Reform voters want? 80% of the state slashed and burned.

The Red Wallers he's after???

I very much doubt it.

This is all very fascist obviously, but it’s also notable (to me) that Farage completely glosses over the reality that Musk sacked 80% of Twitter’s staff & as a result triggered an 84% drop in it’s revenue. He simply didn’t understand the product Twitter was selling.

The idea that you can simply hack away 80% of government employees & not end up causing great swathes of harm to people in the real world is for the birds.

What was twitter selling ? Technically it's been absolutely fine since he took over.

LostPassword said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

LostPassword said:

Casino_Royale said:

I'd say it's fairly common thinking amongst educated here that having fewer/no children is absolutely fine and would do a great service to the planet, so its not really a problem.

This ignores the very serious social, political and economic consequences if it continues unchecked - which could ultimately lead to states falling apart into (and not excluding at the extremes) bankruptcy, disorder and anarchy.

What you probably want is some sort of long-term population stabilisation.

Yes, I'm quite concerned about the prospect of rapid population falls.

I suspect that culturally and economically it's quite hard to hit on close to replacement level. There are feedbacks which will push away from stability.

The idea of a world with a global fertility rate below 1.5 is quite depressing.

It is so depressing. Children are the most incredible gift and the source of almost all joy in the world. There is an upside for the natural world from a lower human population, but it's hard to see a rapidly falling population as anything other than a tragedy.

The upside to the natural world from a falling population is overdone. What matters most in that respect is what technology we have, and how we use it. That's what we can change most quickly and will have the greatest impact.

I get quite cross about people arguing against having children on an environmental basis.

maaarsh said:

Florida live data up and running

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

OnlyLivingBoy said:

LostPassword said:

Casino_Royale said:

I'd say it's fairly common thinking amongst educated here that having fewer/no children is absolutely fine and would do a great service to the planet, so its not really a problem.

This ignores the very serious social, political and economic consequences if it continues unchecked - which could ultimately lead to states falling apart into (and not excluding at the extremes) bankruptcy, disorder and anarchy.

What you probably want is some sort of long-term population stabilisation.

Yes, I'm quite concerned about the prospect of rapid population falls.

I suspect that culturally and economically it's quite hard to hit on close to replacement level. There are feedbacks which will push away from stability.

The idea of a world with a global fertility rate below 1.5 is quite depressing.

It is so depressing. Children are the most incredible gift and the source of almost all joy in the world. There is an upside for the natural world from a lower human population, but it's hard to see a rapidly falling population as anything other than a tragedy.

maaarsh said:

https://x.com/Vermeullarmine/status/1853763787133722639

I just wish the academics who talk about “fascism” day in and day out could expand their alarmist repertoire even a tiny bit, if only to make the discourse less boring. Here’s one suggestion (just to help articulate a view I emphatically do *not* share): a much more interesting historical analogy would be Napoleon III, who attempted two failed coups, was elected to the presidency as a champion of the working class against the liberal elite, and then made himself Emperor.

Andy_JS said:

stjohn said:

RCP average now +0.1 Harris. The polls have the race as a toss up. Evens the pair. The betting is almost 60:40 in Trump's favour. Harris almost 2.5 when the polls have her at 2.0. You could make 25% on your money if you backed Harris at 2.5 and were able to lay her back at 2.0. Will this prove to be the biggest Political Betting value opportunity ever? Huge liquidity available.

+1

Scott_xP said:

@adamboultonTABB

IMHO on balance 🇺🇸 electorate is more sexist than it is racist . Remarkable if
@KamalaHarris overcomes both.

glw said:

Scott_xP said:

@adamboultonTABB

IMHO on balance 🇺🇸 electorate is more sexist than it is racist . Remarkable if
@KamalaHarris overcomes both.

For all the political problems we have in the UK we are quite lucky that the race and sex of candidates doesn't really carry much weight. That's not to say it's not a issue for some at the fringes, but it barely gets any traction.

Scott_xP said:

Update from a different PA polling place

Going to be in line for awhile never seen it this long

Scott_xP said:

My third man on the ground says

I saw more Women

maaarsh said:

Florida live data up and running

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

My third man on the ground says

I saw more Women

Men leave everything to the last minute.

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

My third man on the ground says

I saw more Women

Men leave everything to the last minute.

glw said:

Scott_xP said:

@adamboultonTABB

IMHO on balance 🇺🇸 electorate is more sexist than it is racist . Remarkable if
@KamalaHarris overcomes both.

For all the political problems we have in the UK we are quite lucky that the race and sex of candidates doesn't really carry much weight. That's not to say it's not a issue for some at the fringes, but it barely gets any traction.

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

My third man on the ground says

I saw more Women

Men leave everything to the last minute.

trukat said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

My third man on the ground says

I saw more Women

Men leave everything to the last minute.

They are probably at work right now.

Ratters said:

It's interesting how the key demographic divide varies by country and election.

In the UK we have had ages as the main division over recent years, for example. We've often see the right outperform as older people turn out.

In the US the main division seems to be men versus women. Who will turn out in greater numbers?..

LostPassword said:

Andy_JS said:

Scott_xP said:

Update from a different PA polling place

Going to be in line for awhile never seen it this long

So they still haven't sorted this problem out after all this time. I've never waited more than 2 minutes.

It's not a problem to the people trying to reduce voting levels in urban areas. Long queues are the system working as intended.

Cicero said:

MarqueeMark said:

So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

Donald where´s your troosers?

Chris said:

Cicero said:

MarqueeMark said:

So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

Donald where´s your troosers?

Tears of a Clown, hopefully.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Spent the weekend cleaning the old bomb shelter in the garden, readying in case Trump wins.

FrancisUrquhart said:

glw said:

Scott_xP said:

@adamboultonTABB

IMHO on balance 🇺🇸 electorate is more sexist than it is racist . Remarkable if
@KamalaHarris overcomes both.

For all the political problems we have in the UK we are quite lucky that the race and sex of candidates doesn't really carry much weight. That's not to say it's not a issue for some at the fringes, but it barely gets any traction.

Outside the likes of the leftie race grifters and the far right, literally nobody mentioned Kwarteng or Sunak race or the sex of Truss. That was not the reason they failed electorally.

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

Stocky said:

If Harris won Nevada, as Ralston predicts, then she can afford to lose Penn as long as she gains either Georgia or N Carolina.

Bear in mind that Biden won 306 ECVs and Trump still dragged the process out into January, with violence on the streets. Harris does only need 270 ECVs to win but if she does land in the 270s, it'll get very ugly before it gets better - assuming that Trump doesn't manage to persuade Congress and/or the courts to fiddle the result for him (which is unlikely but certainly not impossible).

Unless it is 268 each Congress has no power to intervene directly and in 2020 remember even most GOP Senators voted that Biden had won even if most GOP House Reps voted to challenge state results and say Trump had won.

The courts cannot intervene either unless to stop the count but Trump would have to be ahead in that states count anyway at that point

MarqueeMark said:

Mexicanpete said:

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

MarqueeMark said:

Sandpit said:

FPT:

Renegade_pollster said:

Re Georgia, and the view that more women out is a positive for Harris. It is worth remembering that Georgia was the site of a particularly high-profile case of an illegal immigrant killing a female student and one that generated a lot of anger.

It might not be abortion that is driving these female voters out.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/will-laken-rileys-murder-tip-georgia

Yes there’s been a lot of commentary on the Republican side about Laken Riley, and sadly a number of other similar cases that have been mentioned at rallies.

Here’s Megyn Kelly at Trump’s rally last night, endorsing Trump and mentioning both the sad cases of murder and sexual assault by illegals, but also the controversial issue of women’s sports which might also drive turnout among younger women. It’s not necessarily just abortion behind the differential female turnout. https://x.com/megynkellyshow/status/1853643950512316882

But if ALL the polling can agree on one thing this election, it is that there is a significant pro-Harris slant by women voters. Both in enthusiams and actual voting intention.

And if you want a demonstration of that energy - just look at the votes ALREADY cast in Georgia.

"The polls" have Georgia either too close to call or call it for Trump. Bullshit, I say.

Here's the maths to support my contention that Harris wins Georgia handily. Before today's voting, she already has. It requires only two data points: the actual votes cast as per the official Georgia website - and the latest and last ABC voting intention poll on the split in how men and women will vote.

"The final ABC News/Ipsos poll before Election Day, released on Sunday, found the gender gap among all likely voters to be 16 points. Harris had a 11-point advantage among women, 53% to 42%, while Trump had a 5-point advantage among men, 50% to 45%."

I make no apology for reposting this. It's a betting site. The data is telling us the result, as 56% of the electorate have already voted. Absent a huge surge in voting, there's only 10% or so going to vote today in Georgia.

So here are the likely votes cast already in Georgia, as best we can tell.

Using the latest ABC gender splits, Harris leads by 11% in the 56% of female votes we know have been cast.

ABC says Trump leads by 5% in that 43.8% of male votes we know have been cast.

2.257 million women have early voted (fact). ABC says that breaks down:

Dem @ 55.5 = 1.252m female Democrat votes cast
Rep @ 44.5 = 1.004m Republican votes cast

1.765 million men have early voted (fact). ABC says that breaks down:

Dem @ 47.5 = 0.838m male Democrat votes cast
Rep @ 52.5 = 0.926m male Republican votes cast

Democrat total votes cast: 1.252 + 0.838 = 2.090 million
Republican total votes cast 1.004 + 0.926 = 1.930 million

So ABC polling on the gender split says there is a 160,000 Dem firewall after 56% of the electorate have already early voted.

Reminder: Biden won Georgia in 2020 by just 11,779 votes

And in case you think it's just Georgia, that's a fluke - it's not:

Gender split in Pennsylvania is again huge in early voting. As of November 1st:

"More than 1.6 million commonwealth voters have cast early mail-in ballots for the Nov. 5 presidential election. An Inquirer analysis of early ballot returns found that women composed 56% of the early mail-ins, with men trailing at 43%, according to voting data obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of State this week."

https://www.inquirer.com/news/early-voting-women-seniors-pennsylvania-20241101.html

The latest figures are 1.77m early votes, but that 56-43 margin is still there.

A 13% split. If we again take the last ABC split of women voters favouring Harris by 11%, that is another huge firewall banked by Harris.

I'm calling it at....4.12 Eastern Time on the 5th November:

KAMALA HARRIS WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.

@MarqueeMark your enthusiasm is infectious but from a betting point of view I must confess I take all your posts with a very large pinch of salt!

We need cold hard objectivity over the next 24 hours. Not to grasp the best bits of news we want to hear.

My post is hard-nosed objectivity! Based on two data points: the very real actual polling numbers from the official Georgia website, showing how far ahead women voters are with 56% of all those entitled to vote having done so (so 100% objectivity); and the last ABC poll which showed how the female voters were breaking decisivley to Harris (with males beaking less solidly for Trump) - which you could argue with but it doesn't seem out of line with other pollsters you could choose.

You really don't need other data points to go "bloody hell!"

I hope you are not wishcasting like all our Trumpian friends, who claim not to be wishcasting.

If you think so, attack the maths...

rottenborough said:

Farage: "This is the sexy bit: Elon comes in and takes a knife to the [US] deep state. Just like when he bought Twitter he sacked 80 per cent of the staff.

There are going to be mass lay-offs, whole departments closing and I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond.

Because that’s what Reform UK believes in - that we’re over-bureaucratised and none of it works. This assault on the bureaucratic state is the thing that’s really exciting."

Really? That's what Reform voters want? 80% of the state slashed and burned.

The Red Wallers he's after???

I very much doubt it.

JosiasJessop said:

maaarsh said:

https://x.com/Vermeullarmine/status/1853763787133722639

I just wish the academics who talk about “fascism” day in and day out could expand their alarmist repertoire even a tiny bit, if only to make the discourse less boring. Here’s one suggestion (just to help articulate a view I emphatically do *not* share): a much more interesting historical analogy would be Napoleon III, who attempted two failed coups, was elected to the presidency as a champion of the working class against the liberal elite, and then made himself Emperor.

The problem with 'fascism' is that it is relatively poorly-defined, as we've seen on previous discussions on here. It seems to be that people think they know it when they see it; but others disagree with those personal definitions and examples.

I'm happy to call Putin a fascist, and think I can argue the point fairly well. But Trump? No, not yet. He and his ilk are happy to use some of the tactics fascists use: e.g. disagreement is treason; fear of difference; machismo and weaponry. Others are not much present: e.g. the cult of tradition.

But Trump et al don't need to be fascist to do terrible things, and calling them 'fascists!' might well be counter-productive. They are bad on their own terms.

Scott_xP said:

@adamboultonTABB

IMHO on balance 🇺🇸 electorate is more sexist than it is racist . Remarkable if
@KamalaHarris overcomes both.

Mexicanpete said:

Nigelb said:

MarqueeMark said:

jamesdoyle said:

MarqueeMark said:

So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

Kamala Chameleon

Then one for the pollsters: Springsteen - "The Ties that Bind"....

Streets of Philadelphia, surely ?

Where they'll be Dancin' in the Street.

Green Day's American Idiot if it's Trump.

TimT said:

Scott_xP said:

@adamboultonTABB

IMHO on balance 🇺🇸 electorate is more sexist than it is racist . Remarkable if
@KamalaHarris overcomes both.

100%. That is the real appeal of Trump to the rednecks, incel types, Latino men, and young Black men.

Andy_JS said:

Haven't been on ChatGPT for about a year, so I thought I'd see if they've improved their factual information replies.

They haven't.

My question: "How many votes did the Conservatives poll in the Huntingdon constituency at the 1983 general election?"

Answer: "In the 1983 UK general election, the Conservative Party candidate in the Huntingdon constituency, John Major, received 32,833 votes, winning with 54.2% of the vote. This was a strong performance in a safe Conservative seat, marking the beginning of a prominent political career for Major, who would later become Prime Minister."

In fact he polled 34,254 votes at that election.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Super interesting video (first 20 mins)

The Hidden Crisis in the UK Economy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7po69QCHVs

Which is backed up experience of this guy building a company

From ROUGH School to $800 Million CEO?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbXmojTTzEk

Nigelb said:

Mexicanpete said:

Nigelb said:

MarqueeMark said:

jamesdoyle said:

MarqueeMark said:

So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

Kamala Chameleon

Then one for the pollsters: Springsteen - "The Ties that Bind"....

Streets of Philadelphia, surely ?

Where they'll be Dancin' in the Street.

Green Day's American Idiot if it's Trump.

The Lights Went out in Georgia

theProle said:

Phil said:

rottenborough said:

Farage: "This is the sexy bit: Elon comes in and takes a knife to the [US] deep state. Just like when he bought Twitter he sacked 80 per cent of the staff.

There are going to be mass lay-offs, whole departments closing and I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond.

Because that’s what Reform UK believes in - that we’re over-bureaucratised and none of it works. This assault on the bureaucratic state is the thing that’s really exciting."

Really? That's what Reform voters want? 80% of the state slashed and burned.

The Red Wallers he's after???

I very much doubt it.

This is all very fascist obviously, but it’s also notable (to me) that Farage completely glosses over the reality that Musk sacked 80% of Twitter’s staff & as a result triggered an 84% drop in it’s revenue. He simply didn’t understand the product Twitter was selling.

The idea that you can simply hack away 80% of government employees & not end up causing great swathes of harm to people in the real world is for the birds.

I'm not sure that one followed from the other with Twitter. The drop in advertising revenue has more to do with his brand positioning than the reduction in headcount.

It's worth remembering that before Musk bought it, Twitter was mostly making thumping losses, and it's business model looked pretty unsustainable. The jury is still out of Musk's version, but I think it's by no means impossible he'll end up making it wash it's face.

MarqueeMark said:

Chris said:

Cicero said:

MarqueeMark said:

So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

Donald where´s your troosers?

Tears of a Clown, hopefully.

REM - Orange Crush....

TimT said:

Nigelb said:

Mexicanpete said:

Nigelb said:

MarqueeMark said:

jamesdoyle said:

MarqueeMark said:

So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

Kamala Chameleon

Then one for the pollsters: Springsteen - "The Ties that Bind"....

Streets of Philadelphia, surely ?

Where they'll be Dancin' in the Street.

Green Day's American Idiot if it's Trump.

The Lights Went out in Georgia

Or, for a Trump win, The Devil Went Down to Georgia

TimT said:

Nigelb said:

Mexicanpete said:

Nigelb said:

MarqueeMark said:

jamesdoyle said:

MarqueeMark said:

So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

Kamala Chameleon

Then one for the pollsters: Springsteen - "The Ties that Bind"....

Streets of Philadelphia, surely ?

Where they'll be Dancin' in the Street.

Green Day's American Idiot if it's Trump.

The Lights Went out in Georgia

Or, for a Trump win, The Devil Went Down to Georgia

TimT said:

Nigelb said:

Mexicanpete said:

Nigelb said:

MarqueeMark said:

jamesdoyle said:

MarqueeMark said:

So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

Kamala Chameleon

Then one for the pollsters: Springsteen - "The Ties that Bind"....

Streets of Philadelphia, surely ?

Where they'll be Dancin' in the Street.

Green Day's American Idiot if it's Trump.

The Lights Went out in Georgia

Or, for a Trump win, The Devil Went Down to Georgia

Driver said:

ToryJim said:

MarqueeMark said:

Chris said:

Cicero said:

MarqueeMark said:

So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

Donald where´s your troosers?

Tears of a Clown, hopefully.

REM - Orange Crush....

Kelly Clarkson - Whole Lotta Woman…

Kamala reading Roger McGough's poem "The Leader"?

FrancisUrquhart said:

bondegezou said:

theProle said:

Phil said:

rottenborough said:

Farage: "This is the sexy bit: Elon comes in and takes a knife to the [US] deep state. Just like when he bought Twitter he sacked 80 per cent of the staff.

There are going to be mass lay-offs, whole departments closing and I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond.

Because that’s what Reform UK believes in - that we’re over-bureaucratised and none of it works. This assault on the bureaucratic state is the thing that’s really exciting."

Really? That's what Reform voters want? 80% of the state slashed and burned.

The Red Wallers he's after???

I very much doubt it.

This is all very fascist obviously, but it’s also notable (to me) that Farage completely glosses over the reality that Musk sacked 80% of Twitter’s staff & as a result triggered an 84% drop in it’s revenue. He simply didn’t understand the product Twitter was selling.

The idea that you can simply hack away 80% of government employees & not end up causing great swathes of harm to people in the real world is for the birds.

I'm not sure that one followed from the other with Twitter. The drop in advertising revenue has more to do with his brand positioning than the reduction in headcount.

It's worth remembering that before Musk bought it, Twitter was mostly making thumping losses, and it's business model looked pretty unsustainable. The jury is still out of Musk's version, but I think it's by no means impossible he'll end up making it wash it's face.

Twitter had started making profit a few years before Musk took over. It took time to get there, but was looking sustainable.

Then Musk took over.

This isn't true. It made money in only 2 years, and it was really just accounting trickery.

DoubleCarpet said:

Andy_JS said:

Scott_xP said:

Update from a different PA polling place

Going to be in line for awhile never seen it this long

So they still haven't sorted this problem out after all this time. I've never waited more than 2 minutes.

Yes, but Uk elections will be max 3 things to vote for normally? I've never had to put an X in more than 4 boxes.

Whereas in the US, there could be 20-40 different things to vote for.

Mexicanpete said:

Nigelb said:

Mexicanpete said:

Nigelb said:

MarqueeMark said:

jamesdoyle said:

MarqueeMark said:

So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

Kamala Chameleon

Then one for the pollsters: Springsteen - "The Ties that Bind"....

Streets of Philadelphia, surely ?

Where they'll be Dancin' in the Street.

Green Day's American Idiot if it's Trump.

The Lights Went out in Georgia

If Harris wins, I Predict a Riot (in reality and the Kaiser Chiefs).

Nigelb said:

Mexicanpete said:

Nigelb said:

MarqueeMark said:

jamesdoyle said:

MarqueeMark said:

So what is the playlist tonight as we wait for results? I'll start off with Steely Dan - Haitian Divorce.

Sorry, Donald, they have fallen out of love....

Kamala Chameleon

Then one for the pollsters: Springsteen - "The Ties that Bind"....

Streets of Philadelphia, surely ?

Where they'll be Dancin' in the Street.

Green Day's American Idiot if it's Trump.

The Lights Went out in Georgia