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What Americans are expecting the election result to be and when – politicalbetting.com
What Americans are expecting the election result to be and when – politicalbetting.com
% of U.S. adults who expect the following election outcomeKamala Harris, by a large margin: 16%Kamala Harris, by a small margin: 26%Donald Trump, by a small margin: 20%Donald Trump, by a large margin: 16%Not sure: 21%https://t.co/rChz9ikJEc pic.twitter.com/KIr4GrrmHK
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Put it this way - I don’t think those answers are the ones you would have got say even last Friday.
Selzer seems to have completely changed the story
The defining issue for me is Ukraine. I don't think that the democrats can solve this and I think they will end up gradually losing the war in Ukraine, as the conflict continues on its current trajectory with no apparent strategic direction. This could cause the rapid collapse of more countries, and significant consequential damage.
My gut feeling is that Trump would be more likely to find a strategic solution to the issue of conflict with Russia.
This puts me at odds with almost everyone, including everyone I know in Finland, but it is my assessment of the situation. There is too much familiarity bias and continuity bias which fuels the assumption that Harris would preserve NATO and the European security arrangement.
With Trump there is the possibility of an updated solution to the security question, there is a risk that this fails, but the current direction of travel seems to lead to failure anyway.
I have this view even accepting that Trump is a significant threat to democracy itself. But I was influenced a lot by Niall Ferguson's recent comments.
EDIT: LIke tomorrow.
Marvellous. They've let me play the underdog fighting for every single pound we can get, and they're so daft as to not even blame us for the cuts we've had to vote through.
I expected South Koreans to be 100% pro Harris and anti Trump. Turns out I am wrong
He has a base of support here. South Koreans are generally very pro western and generally VERY pro American - and Trump is seen as a kind of doughty defender of the USA (and hence Korea?) in a way the Dems are not
Or so my Seoul guide (a Dutchman living here and immersed in Korean culture) told me. My Korean female guide on Jeju backed it up
ChatGPT didn't say it contained only two.
“Earlier this fall, a guerrilla marketing campaign started appearing on sticky notes in public restrooms around the country. ‘Woman to woman,’ read a representative message. ‘Your vote is private. #HarrisWalz2024.’”
https://x.com/tribelaw/status/1853707935274119272
… however for me the many downsides are just too much. His insane economic policies. His chaotic attacks on the western alliance. His likely revenge on Labour Britain (which will be fun to watch as it cripples Starmer but probably bad for UK PLC)
So I hope Trump loses
Here’s Megyn Kelly at Trump’s rally last night, endorsing Trump and mentioning both the sad cases of murder and sexual assault by illegals, but also the controversial issue of women’s sports which might also drive turnout among younger women. It’s not necessarily just abortion behind the differential female turnout. https://x.com/megynkellyshow/status/1853643950512316882
Telegraph (based on Marist poll)
We have a problem with a junior developer, at the bank - who keeps trying to outsource his work to the various “AI”s he has subscribed to.
Instead of using them as a code completion tool (which does work) he is trying to get them to do everything. Turns off his brain.
He almost gets upset it’s pointed out that he is breaking confidentiality rules. Further, that the code often doesn’t work.
The ability of LLMs to fluently generate gibberish is, as someone said, where the next Grenfell may well happen.
We’ve already had fans of the Process State declaring that since a large chunk of the document mountains are computer generated, it’s all ok.
Add in reading documents *by* LLM, and we have a bullshit feedback loop - generating bullshit from bullshit.
Likewise the ads, which get people reflecting on whether they should lie to their spouses. Whereas before, they might just have walked up to the polling station and voted Harris without a moment’s thought.
It’s like governments saying “vaccines work” or “the risk of a terrorist attack attach a tomorrow’s event is vanishingly small” or “we have no plans to raise tax”. Human psychology.
So I’m thinking Ooh we should start getting exit polls soon. And then I check the time and it is only just gone midnight in Los Angeles. Basically, for is here out east today’s election will be tomorrow. And tomorrow. And tomorrow….
*ominous doomsday sound*
None of them have been able to back up this belief with reasoning. Hence, I fear it is just hope *despite* the contrary evidence.
Putin knows what he wants, and has made that very clear many times. USSR redux, with Russia at its heart.
I want the USA with other parties (Saudi, EU, Turkey et al) to use its massive power to be resolvers of the middle east/Israel/Palestine, and not to just continue a 75 year long unjust management exercise. Ditto Ukraine, Sudan and so on.
I think there is zero chance of the Democrats moving that way. A tiny chance that Trump will. The only thing I like about him is that he knows that there are few votes in dead US soldiers fighting losing wars. I think Trump and his backers have fascist tendencies, but that aspect of Trump - dislike of war - distinguishes him from some German leaders beginning with H now safely dead.
It’s like the pandemic didn’t happen !
More GOP voters are voting early because Trump and the GOP have made a concerted effort to push that . The ED vote is going to be bluer than 2020 because of that .
“Children’s reading enjoyment has fallen to its lowest level in almost two decades, with just one in three young people saying that they enjoy reading in their free time, according to a new survey.”
It’s down from 2 in 3 only eight years ago. A collapse
We are breeding a generation transfixed by smartphones with the attention spans of minnows and their ethics and politics provided by TikTok
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2024/nov/05/report-fall-in-children-reading-for-pleasure-national-literacy-trust
The other caveat is he doesn't like votes. If he wins, he has said there will never be another election in his lifetime, so sacrificing some US soldiers wouldn't be a hindrance
Oh, wait...
Enterprising use of CCTV might tell us a lot.
Trump is a serious danger and we all need him to lose.
You’re probably joking but it’s still good to keep Putin in perspective
But, yes, everything about Putin suggests that his appetite for fresh conquest is fuelled by successful conquest.
I favour Realism in foreign affairs. Give victory to an aggressor, and all that you do is teach
him to do it again.
You and I might not see the results but our children could.
Doing a 'proper' analysis in this situation is next-to impossible - though there have been some creditable efforts on here. I doubt any of the five Telegraph pundits have gone to the effort, though.
I do not buy all this "end of democracy" bollocks if he wins. But a Trump win would not be good for the world.
Harris is a poor candidate but is far better than the Trumpdozer.
TikTok does exist in China and is very popular but there it definitely does have algorithms designed to provide a very different view than the international version..
I think we may as well ignore betting odds as a guide to how well candidates are doing until polls close.
Paragraph 3. She has been a positive revelation compared to the rhetoric we heard prior to her candidacy. She can't do anything about being of colour and female so Trump might still win.
Delivery driver wins case for unfair dismissal despite calling female colleague a “f***ing mong” during an argument about her weight
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/law/article/using-f-word-at-work-is-no-sacking-offence-in-the-north-rules-judge-p7hnkz927
Now we have a whole library upstairs and that is now 90% Mrs Eek's books because 100% of my recent purchases have been on a kindle backlit allowing me to read at night after she's gone to sleep.
Nukes are good as a defence against nukes, but they are suicidal to use in any other context, because you get nukes right back.
And an invader doesn't take all they want in one go, they salami slice. So none of the steps is sufficient to justify all our war, but they gain what they want quietly.
The answer Jim Hacker was led to was National Service, but it was just a sitcom and nobody would be dumb enough to propose that, surely?
Contrary to the narrative, I do not think Trump will force a situation that leads to the immediate capitulation of Ukraine. Far more likely is a frozen conflict.
Equally, I am unclear that the Democrats strategy of “de-escalated” long term attritional warfare (with weak sanctions) necessarily leads to the collapse of the Russian army before Ukraine’s. Russia has shown little difficulty in regenerating its massive infantry losses and the DRPK development is concerning, because the first 12k might just be a down payment. Let’s assume the Dems strategy “works”, I don’t think we’re looking at the return to 2014 borders, it will still be a negotiated settlement.
In either trump or Harris scenarios, the likelihood is that Putin stays in power and spends 5 years licking his wounds and regenerating his military capability. If trump wins, Europe and the Uk will wake up and hopefully start matching the Poles’ defence spending. But the dawn of US isolationism would be at a moment when Putin is utterly unprepared to attack an EU state. If Harris wins, complacency would likely win the day and we then get a rude awakening in 2028 if MAGA v2 wins and Russia’s army has recovered by then.
What he does is two-fold:
Firstly, he tries to subvert the democratic processes in countries he is interested in. Directly, as we have just seen in Moldova, and indirectly, by using things like immigration or by helping various other groups that furthers division in his target country.
Secondly, if that fails, then he goes for direct confrontation. As he did in Georgia in 2008, and Ukraine in 2014 and 2022.
We are far too weak on the former of these.
US law firms in London demand 70-hour weeks — for £170,000 salaries
Newly qualified solicitors report that they routinely finish after 10.30pm
https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/us-law-firms-in-london-demand-70-hour-weeks-for-170000-salaries-plhbbq5j3
https://x.com/bridgetphetasy/status/1852881275146703149
In her mind the wokery and immigration outweigh the negatives. She says she’s not really voting *for* Trump, more like she’s voting against the Left.
Disruption to the strategy under Trump comes with very many risks, including the risk that Ukraine would just be abandoned. But I put the risk of that as being low given the evident self interest on the part of the US of maintaining support from its European allies. There are many possible outcomes, including the possibility that the war could actually be escalated to try and create the conditions for a lasting solution, at least insofar as Ukraine is concerned.
Sure some women may think that way - but they were probably less likely to vote for Harris anyway. On balance, I think it works.
And it's nothing like "government saying"; this is effectively a peer to peer campaign.
He said the situation at the company was “made worse by a failure to enforce standards generally, thereby leading to a culture of banter”. Ogden “had not been pulled up before over comments, and this likely led to a false sense of security in terms of it not being a disciplinary issue”.
So it sounds more like the fault was the company not stamping down earlier. Not so much that either word was acceptable, but that the driver had reason to think they were tolerated in that office.
Bad headline, though.
Yes what was said was wrong but Booker completely screwed up everything and seriously pi**ed off the judge to the extent that I think he was inclined to find in the delivery drivers favour.
I think Harris is going to win, more comfortably than people expect though.
Putin wants Kiev - you can't negotiate if that is the desired end result...
I really don't want to say this to a poster on here but you really don't have the first clue what you are talking about...
Gore was a poor candidate; as was Dukakis or Hillary.
All had month to prepare their campaigns, and variously gaffed in the home straight. Gore even flubbed his Florida recount call.
What missteps has Harris made ?
Note the outraged response on Fux News and from GOP mouthpieces. A wife not obeying her husband, in *lying* that they are obeying and then secretly *betraying their marriage vows* by secretly voting Harris.
No wonder that women will deliver the election for Harris.
Doctors paid £200,000 overtime to tackle NHS backlog
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy0lkxl7061o
Foxy's mates will have to do more private medicine to pay the income tax on their NHS overtime.
When Putin talks about Belarus, Ukraine and Russia as one historical nation we have to assume he wants to unify them all (which is interesting if you are Belarusian - as you’ve been playing nice with the bear and eventually it may bite).
Same with Trump. If he gets into power he will try to do what he has said he will do. Will he be able to who knows.
But eventually most wars end in negotiation. The question for Ukraine is whether Putin gets to negotiate from strength and so can dictate his terms (a quisling government in Kiev like he’s got in Minsk may be enough). Or whether he has to negotiate from weakness - and he may have to settle for some sort of independence for the Russian speaking east of the country.
https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/niall-ferguson-tendentious-op-ed
.As the term of abuse is not one relating to a protected characteristic, the
case should be viewed in that light in my assessment.
I would have thought 70's slang terms for a disability was a protected characteristic unless disabilities are not protected..
Tony Blair had this. SKS did, for all his insipid dullness. Obama did, of course. Bill Clinton did. Joe Biden did. I'm not convinced Harris does. She is too 21st century California for far too large a section of the electorate for comfort. She is plodding uninspiringly but unstumblingly towards the finish line, but that alone might not be enough if she's just perceived as too left wing.
Last time he was in office he tried to shake them down for protection money. The US has been a reliable guarantor of S Korea's security, whoever was in government, for seven decades; a second Trump term puts that into question.
They've been rapidly ramping their defence investment ever since, just in case he gets in and abandons them.
A 'strategic solution' in Ukraine will resolve the problem of Russia continuously starting wars in Eastern Europe. What form that takes is not clear. It seems like everyone is in agreement that the solution is that Russia gets defeated in Ukraine and then gets scared off. But then you keep supporting the party that have repeatedly failed to implement that outcome, despite having every opportunity to do so.
I entirely agree with her analysis: ultimately the greatest, truly civilisational danger comes from the Left, the Dems, the Woke, Labour, all of these repulsive traitors
However I return to my ice floe/polar bear analogy. You are trapped on an ice floe which is slowly heading into warmer waters, in time this will melt and you will drown, for sure - that is the awful drift into Woke madness and darkness
However you are ALSO sharing the ice floe with a hungry polar bear. Trump is the polar bear and your vote is a gun
As the polar bear will probably kill you in the next few minutes, not days or weeks, you have to shoot the polar bear first and THEN think about the whole melting ice floe thing
The two numbers that might give an idea of what’s going to happen .
In 2020 the Edison exit poll showed the gender split 52 to 48 for women .
In terms of ethnicity
White 67
Black 13
Latino 13
Asian 4
Other 4
The first exit poll might be a bit more older given younger people are more likely to vote later in the day ..