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There is no happy ending for Bobby J – politicalbetting.com

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  • We haven’t had Remembrance Sunday yet. Let alone Advent Sunday.

    My Mrs C has also started preparing for it, though. And we’ve booked our Christmas Dinner.
    We've had Halloween.

    We're into Christmas season now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872

    I still don’t think we have any party anywhere in world, in power during this historic credit crunch after Covid reboot, who have won their election.

    Even dominant parties in Japan and Botswana who rarely or never lose, have been defeated.

    This was a change year in US politics, if Dems win it (they won’t though) it would all be down to what a totally abysmal unelectable candidate Donald Trump actually was.

    The GOP have lost their way and need a reset. If Dems get another 4 years here, with voters knowing they are worse off and seriously feeling it, it’s a bonus, and everything Dems do with the power will be a bonus.
    Indeed, if Haley was GOP candidate next week she would win the Presidency by a landslide and the GOP win Congress.

    As it is the Dems still have a chance of holding the White House against Trump even if the GOP still likely take Congress
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872

    He has enough investments and tax advantages to do it himself
    No he doesn't as ultimately they would run out if they have to fund all state duties
  • Recent polling figures show Keir Starmer’s popularity has increased by 7 points since the Budget

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1852804112510828678
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,771
    edited November 2024
    HYUFD said:

    As his duties as Prince of Wales are for the State and his role as heir to the throne and next Head of State and need funding
    The point is almost none of these duties are actually needed.

    Suppose Harry hadn't gone off to the US. He would have been performing all kinds of duties - but as he's not here he hasn't - and what effect has it had on the country? None.

    Suppose Andrew hadn't been banished. Ditto as above - again none of these duties have happened - again no impact on anyone.

    Kate has done almost no duties this year (for entirely understandable reasons) - but again there's been no impact on anyone - other than tabloid editors who've had to find something else to go on their front pages.

    The reality is that the whole thing could be scaled back by at least 90% - back to core things like Opening Parliament, Remembrance Day etc. All the rest could be dumped and huge savings made.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    edited November 2024
    Cookie said:

    Well you are, strangely, an authentic early 19th century Tory. But that != a 21st century conservative. The crown and the church are niche interests.
    More support the Crown and are Christian still in the UK than back pure free market Thatcherism, even if supporters of both form the bulk of today's 21st century Conservative Party and are largely united in opposing republican, secular socialism
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    HYUFD said:

    No he doesn't as ultimately they would run out if they have to fund all state duties
    Ever heard of the difference between capital and interest?

    And your employer paying legitimate expenses? They're civil servants, and there's an excellent model already in the Northcote-Trevelyan doctrine of the Civil Service.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,148
    Driver said:

    His first act was to agree to follow his mother in paying 75% tax, so no.
    Are you referring to the crown estates there?

    By virtue of being sovereign, the monarch has a 100% liability to fund the British state because they are the British state. All their money belongs to the state, so they can't actually pay tax, except as an accounting exercise.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,278

    Trump: "The weave. It's genius".

    Totally deranged.

    "There'll be a time in life where the weave won't finish properly at the bottom and then we can talk. But right now it's pure genius."
    https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1852775199361339446

    His comments about white skin yesterday were utterly bizarre.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,345

    Something has gone oddly wrong with the BBC's Cricket commentary.

    After 41 overs they reckon England need 86 runs from 94 balls.
    After 42 overs they reckon England need 79 runs from 88 balls.

    The final 10 overs of an ODI != 100 balls.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/live/c80x2qvky5kt

    Always said the Hundred would ruin proper cricket.

    Heck, it's even damaged ODIs.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Are you referring to the crown estates there?

    By virtue of being sovereign, the monarch has a 100% liability to fund the British state because they are the British state. All their money belongs to the state, so they can't actually pay tax, except as an accounting exercise.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/nov/02/king-and-prince-william-estates-millions-charities-public-services-nhs-leasing-land

    "The king will also make at least £28m from windfarms because the Duchy of Lancaster retains a feudal right to charge for cables crossing the foreshore, according to an investigation by Channel 4’s Dispatches and the Sunday Times.

    William’s Duchy of Cornwall, the hereditary estate of the heir to the throne, has signed a £37m deal to lease Dartmoor prison for 25 years to the Ministry of Justice, which is liable for all repairs despite paying £1.5m a head for a jail empty of prisoners because of high levels of radon gas."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872

    OK so pay him a salary for doing that job.

    Say £50,000 per annum sounds reasonable to me.

    If he doesn't want to do that job for that salary, let him resign and find someone else willing to do it.

    Not a reason to allow him to dodge £400 million in IHT that should be due.

    That you think it is, shows how bad value for money you are.
    It would be £200k plus per annum for all working royals paid for by taxpayers unlike now.

    The Duchies also provide affordable homes and renewable energy schemes and farmland etc which would all ultimately have to go if they paid IHT
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,345
    Surely even England can't find a way to lose this.

    And well played Liam Livingstone.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    HYUFD said:

    It would be £200k plus per annum for all working royals paid for by taxpayers unlike now.

    The Duchies also provide affordable homes and renewable energy schemes and farmland etc which would all ultimately have to go if they paid IHT
    You went utterly berserk when the SNP wanted to include Royal estates into renewable energy legislation because reasons. Now you say this ...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,345
    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/nov/02/king-and-prince-william-estates-millions-charities-public-services-nhs-leasing-land

    "The king will also make at least £28m from windfarms because the Duchy of Lancaster retains a feudal right to charge for cables crossing the foreshore, according to an investigation by Channel 4’s Dispatches and the Sunday Times.

    William’s Duchy of Cornwall, the hereditary estate of the heir to the throne, has signed a £37m deal to lease Dartmoor prison for 25 years to the Ministry of Justice, which is liable for all repairs despite paying £1.5m a head for a jail empty of prisoners because of high levels of radon gas."
    If there is nobody actually in it, £1.5 million a head sounds an absolute bargain.
  • MikeL said:

    The point is almost none of these duties are actually needed.

    Suppose Harry hadn't gone off to the US. He would have been performing all kinds of duties - but as he's not here he hasn't - and what effect has it had on the country? None.

    Suppose Andrew hadn't been banished. Ditto as above - again none of these duties have happened - again no impact on anyone.

    Kate has done almost no duties this year (for entirely understandable reasons) - but again there's been no impact on anyone - other than tabloid editors who've had to find something else to go on their front pages.

    The reality is that the whole thing could be scaled back by at least 90% - back to core things like Opening Parliament, Remembrance Day etc. All the rest could be dumped and huge savings made.

    I thought Charles was supposed to be slimming it all down? Whatever happened to that?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,148

    We've had Halloween.

    We're into Christmas season now.
    I always aim to bake my Christmas cake on the weekend the clocks go back (which will cause me a few issues if the nonsense of changing the clocks is ever abolished). It's hard not to think of that as the start of Christmas season.

    My wife has an unfortunate aversion to Christmas carols, due to having to teach so many young children how to play them on the tin whistle or other instruments, so I have to hold off on the Christmas music for a while yet...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/nov/02/king-and-prince-william-estates-millions-charities-public-services-nhs-leasing-land

    "The king will also make at least £28m from windfarms because the Duchy of Lancaster retains a feudal right to charge for cables crossing the foreshore, according to an investigation by Channel 4’s Dispatches and the Sunday Times.

    William’s Duchy of Cornwall, the hereditary estate of the heir to the throne, has signed a £37m deal to lease Dartmoor prison for 25 years to the Ministry of Justice, which is liable for all repairs despite paying £1.5m a head for a jail empty of prisoners because of high levels of radon gas."
    Generous move from the Prince due to shortage of prison places and great support for renewable energy and windfarms too.

    What an example he is to us all!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    ydoethur said:

    If there is nobody actually in it, £1.5 million a head sounds an absolute bargain.
    It is odd wording - I assume £1.5m per cell, doesn't make sense otherwise ...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    HYUFD said:

    Generous move from the Prince due to shortage of prison places and great support for renewable energy and windfarms too.

    What an example he is to us all!
    Missing the point. The prison is useless. So the complete opposite of what you are spinning.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    Carnyx said:

    Ever heard of the difference between capital and interest?

    And your employer paying legitimate expenses? They're civil servants, and there's an excellent model already in the Northcote-Trevelyan doctrine of the Civil Service.
    Yes, you want taxpayers to pick up the bill for all working royals expenses too now it seems unlike now
  • The final Selzer poll of Iowa should be dropping in a couple of hours.

    For people who are new here this used to be important because Iowa was an important swing state, but now it's important because Ann Selzer is America's last remaining non-broken pollster, so if you want to know what's going on you have to look at her Iowa numbers then try to extrapolate what it means for Pennsylvania.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,115
    Fantastic performance from Livingstone. Brilliant acceleration into the final 10. Made it look easy.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,345
    DavidL said:

    Fantastic performance from Livingstone. Brilliant acceleration into the final 10. Made it look easy.

    Spare a thought for poor Shai Hope. An equally brilliant century overshadowed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    MikeL said:

    The point is almost none of these duties are actually needed.

    Suppose Harry hadn't gone off to the US. He would have been performing all kinds of duties - but as he's not here he hasn't - and what effect has it had on the country? None.

    Suppose Andrew hadn't been banished. Ditto as above - again none of these duties have happened - again no impact on anyone.

    Kate has done almost no duties this year (for entirely understandable reasons) - but again there's been no impact on anyone - other than tabloid editors who've had to find something else to go on their front pages.

    The reality is that the whole thing could be scaled back by at least 90% - back to core things like Opening Parliament, Remembrance Day etc. All the rest could be dumped and huge savings made.
    No they couldn't, part of the role of a ceremonial head of state is state visits hosting here and trips overseas, hosting receptions for charities and voluntary bodies and visits to village halls, community groups, WI, Scouts, schools, factories etc you name it. Raising their morale too
  • Acyn
    @Acyn
    ·
    24m

    Walz: And then this dude is nearly 80 years old. He tells us he's a genius, a stable genius. He apparently went to the Wharton school. In those 80 years, you would have thought he learned what a damn tariff is and who pays for it.

    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1852814905633812938
  • HYUFD said:

    It would be £200k plus per annum for all working royals paid for by taxpayers unlike now.

    The Duchies also provide affordable homes and renewable energy schemes and farmland etc which would all ultimately have to go if they paid IHT
    So he pays £400m taxes due and then we pay him £200k salary?

    I can live with that. Though that's way more than I think he needs.
  • I always aim to bake my Christmas cake on the weekend the clocks go back (which will cause me a few issues if the nonsense of changing the clocks is ever abolished). It's hard not to think of that as the start of Christmas season.

    My wife has an unfortunate aversion to Christmas carols, due to having to teach so many young children how to play them on the tin whistle or other instruments, so I have to hold off on the Christmas music for a while yet...
    Stir Sunday is not until 24th Nov
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,771
    edited November 2024
    72.2m votes cast

    2020 total vote = 158.4m

    So 46% of vote cast if total vote same as 2020.

    In practice it's even more than above due to time lag between votes being cast and reported.

    Gender split is 53% female, 44% male - which remains encouraging for Dems (3% unknown)
  • Andy_JS said:

    His comments about white skin yesterday were utterly bizarre.
    Yet 48/49% of Americans want him to be their President.

    The country is having a collective nervous breakdown.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,528
    ydoethur said:

    Surely even England can't find a way to lose this.

    And well played Liam Livingstone.

    They didn’t! And well played LL indeed!
  • HYUFD said:

    Generous move from the Prince due to shortage of prison places and great support for renewable energy and windfarms too.

    What an example he is to us all!
    Frankly he is no example to me with all his entitlements and servants
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,115
    MikeL said:

    72.2m votes cast

    2020 total vote = 158.4m

    So 46% of vote cast if total vote same as 2020.

    In practice it's even more than above due to time lag between votes being cast and reported.

    Gender split is 53% female, 44% male - which remains encouraging for Dems (3% unknown)

    That's incredible. How many think, "oh, I wish I could change my mind?"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    edited November 2024

    Yet 48/49% of Americans want him to be their President.

    The country is having a collective nervous breakdown.
    The populist right has been surging across the western world and is already in power alone or in coalition in the Netherlands, Italy and New Zealand and ahead in some presidential polls in France. In Sweden the minority centre right government needs populist right support for confidence and supply to stay in office.

    Even in Australia and Canada and the UK and Germany the leaders of the main centre right parties are at least on some issues like opposition to excess immigration or woke populist right to some degree. In India, Russia and Israel too the Nationalist right are in government and in Brazil they were in office until a few years ago.

    Trump is a symptom not a cause of that and of course he was elected President already 8 years ago
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,148

    Stir Sunday is not until 24th Nov
    The recipe I have is from Antonia Cornwell, and it calls for eight weeks of dosing the cake with your spirit of choice.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,266
    DavidL said:

    That's incredible. How many think, "oh, I wish I could change my mind?"
    Are we back on Brexit again?
  • viewcode said:

    I don't think his quote that his "...life would be easier if she didn't exist" is disgraceful. Although my life is £74 better than it was this morning thanks to her existence, so there's that.
    There is a propensity for celebrities to have a trans child. Of course, no such thing as a trans child, just a parent proxying their transhaussen.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    DavidL said:

    That's incredible. How many think, "oh, I wish I could change my mind?"
    Women save the world from Trump!
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,697
    darkage said:

    Not sure about this case but there can be copyright issues with these technical reports; if you rely on them to grant permission without the permission of the author.
    It’s not copyright but liability. You need to assign them. It was the assignment that the councillor messed with.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    edited November 2024

    So he pays £400m taxes due and then we pay him £200k salary?

    I can live with that. Though that's way more than I think he needs.
    No he would have to cut or sell renewable energy schemes and affordable homes on his land to pay for the IHT and sell more land to developers at full price
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,697
    kyf_100 said:

    Even the tweet mocking David Tennant today is a low blow.

    One of Tennant's children is, IIRC, trans / gender non-conforming.

    To use an analogy people on here might understand, Leon didn't just get the banhammer for casual racism, it was because he offended to the core people whose partners and children are non-white, by implying their loved ones had less value than 'white babies'. And that felt like a visceral, personal attack.

    To some of us, trans people aren't just strange concepts that only exist in theory, they are our friends, family and loved ones. And when people make comments that seek to erase their existence, as Rowling frequently does, e.g. with the casual misgendering, it wounds to the very core.

    Rowling's transphobia is out there in the open for all to see.

    I don't want to get involved in a long, drawn out debate on the trans issue. But I do want to stand up for, and speak up for, the people I love.

    David Tennant wasn't some rich lefty
    engaging in virtue signalling. He was a father standing up for his child's right to exist.

    Nobody should be made to feel less valid as a human being because of the colour of their skin, their sexuality, or their gender identity. Rowling, sadly, has a great deal of form with the latter.
    Tennant’s attack was on Badenoch and he wished for a world where she didn’t exist and that she would shut up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    edited November 2024

    Frankly he is no example to me with all his entitlements and servants
    Yes but he has the position by grace of God, while you are a commoner
  • There is a propensity for celebrities to have a trans child. Of course, no such thing as a trans child, just a parent proxying their transhaussen.
    So you mean like Elon Musk's sprog?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,115

    Women save the world from Trump!
    I absolutely loved that cartoon that that @Scott_xP linked to this morning with the women going to the polling booth in their Gilead clothes and walking away wearing what they damn well liked. Lets hope that is the way it goes.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,278
    It's almost like Trump wants to lose with his recent comments, which are so bizarre even a lot of his supporters will be put off by them.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,115

    Are we back on Brexit again?
    Sigh....LoL. Very good.
  • DavidL said:

    That's incredible. How many think, "oh, I wish I could change my mind?"
    Probably fewer than you might think, for THIS particular POTUS election.

    However, vote one big reason for voters in WA State NOT returning their election ballots earlier, is waiting to make sure they do NOT vote BEFORE learning something that MIGHT change their voting intention, on some race or another.

    Had this happen to me in 2022 re: my vote for US House.

    Big reason FOR voting as early as possible is: what if I get run over by a bus BEFORE casting my vote?

    Woman I know gave birth - by caesarian section - a week before the 2000 election; she thought she'd have zero problem voting on EDay. HOWEVER her newborn developed jaundice . . . so she ended up spending that day in the hospital . . . and never had a chance to vote.

    WA State was NOT in play for 2000 POTUS . . . but we DID have a very close US Senate election . . .
  • HYUFD said:

    Yes but he has the position by grace of God, while you are a commoner
    We are all equal in the eyes of the Good Lord

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    That would be the budget 21% think was good and 35% bad?

    https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1852802926462538143
  • Ugh.

    The NHS will pay the King’s duchy £11m over 15 years to rent a warehouse for ambulances...it is being charged 67% more than the previous tenants paid.

    Great reporting from Sunday Times Insight team
    @Arbuthnott

    @JCalvertST

    @KatieTarrant_

    @thetimes


    https://x.com/ShaunLintern/status/1852748219391860988
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    edited November 2024
    DavidL said:

    I absolutely loved that cartoon that that @Scott_xP linked to this morning with the women going to the polling booth in their Gilead clothes and walking away wearing what they damn well liked. Lets hope that is the way it goes.
    I'm pretty optimistic. I think women turning out along with never Trumper Republicans can bring this home quite comfortably for Harris. These are the two factors I don't think have been adequately reflected in the polling.
  • AnthonyTAnthonyT Posts: 141
    Foxy said:

    Thanks for this.

    Being Trans seemed a peculiar theoretical to me, but a couple of years back a friend of Fox jr2 who he has known since they were in Beavers together, and still flatshare came out as Trans and now uses female pronouns. She has not yet had either hormonal or surgical treatment, mostly because of difficulties accessing gender affirming treatment. Fox jr2 reckons coming out as Trans has saved her life.

    They are the same kind, generous person that I have known for years, and deserve kindness and generosity of spirit as they set out on what is clearly going to be a life where people are prejudiced against her and consider her a threat.
    If your son's friend has had no hormonal or surgical treatment, they remain a male. What they call themselves or how they dress are irrelevant. That is why women do not want to have them in changing rooms, loos, rape centres etc - because they are men. No women can tell whether a man - however he present himself - is kind and generous or a predator or someone indulging a fetish. That is why all men are kept out. Perhaps men could learn to be kind to and inclusive of those of their sex who have issues with their gender. And what this forum seems to miss is that some of those sheltering under the trans umbrella are not genuinely trans (whatever that means) but predators, opportunistic men, fetishists and those who like to make women feel uncomfortable. Uncomfortable for men to accept this but a look at the reality - rather than the comforting belief that all transpeople are automatically lovely people who wouldn't harm a fly - will show why women have good reason to believe that some men are taking the piss.

    Look, for instance, at the case of the Darlington nurses discussed in today's Times. A man calling himself Rose who has done nothing (chemically or surgically) because he is trying for a baby with his girlfriend insists on going into the female nurses' changing room, wandering round in his boxers and asking them when they are getting undressed. Why the hell should any woman put up with that? Indeed whatever happened to women being able to have boundaries and have them respected, to being able to say "No" and having that accepted?

    Why should any woman put up with the risk of indecent exposure or voyeurism (both crimes) or worse to suit men? Bear in mind that since 24 October all employers are under a duty to prevent sexual harassment at work. Forcing women to undress in front of men seems to be a breach of that provision.

    Take a look at what Wes Streeting, Wera Hobhouse and Diana Johnson - 2 Labour MPs and a Lib Dem one - have said about the concerns women have about wanting single sex spaces which are just that and realise that this is not a party political issue. Nor is the issue of women's rights trivial or a culture war one. Those saying so simply demonstrate their contempt for women. How a society treats women is the mark of how decent and civilised it really is.
  • The Lincoln Project
    @ProjectLincoln

    The award-winning cast of The West Wing reunited to endorse VP Kamala Harris for President in a new ad created in partnership with the Lincoln Project.

    https://x.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1852793137497858142
  • I'm pretty optimistic. I think women turning out along with never Trumper Republicans can bring this home quite comfortably for Harris. These are the two factors I don't think have been adequately reflected in the polling.
    Could be balanced up though with Trump's reach-out to young males who don't normally vote.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    @KamalaHQ
    Trump appears to be unraveling live on stage

    “When I say insane asylums, and then I say, Doctor Hannibal Lecter, does anybody know? They go crazy. They say, oh, he brings up these names out of— Well, that's genius. Right. Doctor Hannibal Lecter. There's nobody worse than him. Silence of the Lambs. Who the hell else would even remember that? I have a great memory, but they always hit me. I don't bring it up too much because they have to take such a— he brought up Hannibal Lecter. What does that have to do with this? What is it? It has everything to do with it, right? He was… So I've done something for you for you that I haven't done in 20 speeches. I brought up Doctor Hannibal Lecter and we're allowing him, you watch, you watch these fake people will say again, he brought up Hannibal Lecter has absolutely nothing to do. You know I do the weave, right? The weave. It's genius. You bring up Hannibal Lecter, you mention insane asylum. Hannibal Lecter. You go out, no. There'll be a time in life where the weave won't finish properly at the bottom and then we can talk. But right now it's pure genius. Hey, I have an uncle, my uncle, Uncle John, my father's brother, 41 years at MIT, longest serving professor has so many degrees, he didn't know what the hell to do with them all in the most complicated. I understand a lot of this stuff, you know, I believe in that. Like, I mean, Jack Nicklaus is not gonna produce a bad golfer. Right. You know, that's the way it works. It's just one of those things and it's in the family and it's whatever”

    https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1852775199361339446
  • HYUFD said:

    The populist right has been surging across the western world and is already in power alone or in coalition in the Netherlands, Italy and New Zealand and ahead in some presidential polls in France. In Sweden the minority centre right government needs populist right support for confidence and supply to stay in office.

    Even in Australia and Canada and the UK and Germany the leaders of the main centre right parties are at least on some issues like opposition to excess immigration or woke populist right to some degree. In India, Russia and Israel too the Nationalist right are in government and in Brazil they were in office until a few years ago.

    Trump is a symptom not a cause of that and of course he was elected President already 8 years ago
    I've come to the conclusion that politicians are little more than driftwood, vainly trying to navigate the oceanic swells beneath them in the hope of staying afloat slightly longer. Elections have the single function of legitimising the government that emerges, but history and geography, like the weather, are beyond their control.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,001
    Pleased to see continuation of the influence of the Spectator in the leader of the Conservative party
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    Kaplan final national Presidential poll

    Trump 48% Harris 47%
    https://www.scribd.com/document/787176657/Final-Kaplan-Strategies-2024-Presidential-Poll#from_embed


    Redfield final swing states poll

    Pennsylvania Harris 48% Trump 48%

    Arizona Trump 48% Harris 47%

    Wisconsin Harris 48% Trump 47%

    North Carolina Trump 48% Harris 47%

    Nevada Trump 48% Harris 47%

    Michigan Harris 47% Trump 47%

    Georgia Trump 48% Harris 47%
    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/final-us-swing-states-voting-intention-28-31-october/
  • The recipe I have is from Antonia Cornwell, and it calls for eight weeks of dosing the cake with your spirit of choice.
    Blimey. Can anyone stand after a slice of that cake????!!!
  • HYUFD said:

    Trump is a symptom not a cause of that and of course he was elected President already 8 years ago

    Yes, Trump's rise has been caused by underlying problems which won't go away even if Harris wins.

    A good chunk of voters know Trump is a criminal, a liar, a racist, a misogynist, a wannabe dictator, and quite possibly senile. But they're ready to back him because he offers simplistic and superficially attractive solutions - too much crime? Deport cat-eating immigrants. No jobs? Impose tariffs. Falling birth rate? Ban contraception and abortion.

    Any country who's people are desperate enough to grasp at those straws is in a terrible place. I've been predicting for years the US' problems are so deep-seated it will fracture the union in the medium-term future, and this election has done nothing to disabuse me of that view.
  • HYUFD said:
    Starmer's approval has gone up
  • If Trump loses, who will go next? Will Trump have another go?
  • So you mean like Elon Musk's sprog?
    Exactly like that. Coming as trans should be celebrated like coming out as anorexic.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,115
    Scott_xP said:

    @KamalaHQ
    Trump appears to be unraveling live on stage

    “When I say insane asylums, and then I say, Doctor Hannibal Lecter, does anybody know? They go crazy. They say, oh, he brings up these names out of— Well, that's genius. Right. Doctor Hannibal Lecter. There's nobody worse than him. Silence of the Lambs. Who the hell else would even remember that? I have a great memory, but they always hit me. I don't bring it up too much because they have to take such a— he brought up Hannibal Lecter. What does that have to do with this? What is it? It has everything to do with it, right? He was… So I've done something for you for you that I haven't done in 20 speeches. I brought up Doctor Hannibal Lecter and we're allowing him, you watch, you watch these fake people will say again, he brought up Hannibal Lecter has absolutely nothing to do. You know I do the weave, right? The weave. It's genius. You bring up Hannibal Lecter, you mention insane asylum. Hannibal Lecter. You go out, no. There'll be a time in life where the weave won't finish properly at the bottom and then we can talk. But right now it's pure genius. Hey, I have an uncle, my uncle, Uncle John, my father's brother, 41 years at MIT, longest serving professor has so many degrees, he didn't know what the hell to do with them all in the most complicated. I understand a lot of this stuff, you know, I believe in that. Like, I mean, Jack Nicklaus is not gonna produce a bad golfer. Right. You know, that's the way it works. It's just one of those things and it's in the family and it's whatever”

    https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1852775199361339446

    Just mad, bad and dangerous to know (esp if you are a lawyer).
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,953

    Tennant’s attack was on Badenoch and he wished for a world where she didn’t exist and that she would shut up.
    And if you bothered to read it, you'd know my post was about Rowling's latest tweet today, which was deliberately and shamefully baiting David Tennant.

    However, Badenoch has said plenty about trans people that will, as I pointed out, fill you with anger, if you have a gender noncomforming loved one in your life, as Tennant does. Which is why I wanted to compare it to Leon's comments about white babies so that a broader audience of people might understand the rage you feel when someone like Badenoch says she doesn't believe trans children "exist".

    If you look at what he actually said, the full quote is as follows -

    "I'm a little depressed by the fact that acknowledging that everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they're not hurting anybody else, should merit any kind of special award or special mention because it's common sense, isn't it? It is human decency. We shouldn't live in a world where that is worth remarking on. However, until we wake up and Kemi Badenoch doesn't exist any more… I don't wish ill of her, I just wish her to shut up."

    I can assure you that is pretty mild stuff. It sounds like a call for basic human decency to me, from the parent of a gender nonconforming child. If you have a problem with that, I feel very, very sorry for you. But not nearly as sorry as I feel for the trans people who have to face this kind of abuse on a day to day basis.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    edited November 2024

    If Trump loses, who will go next? Will Trump have another go?

    DeSantis and Haley would be frontrunners if he loses, Vance if he wins as incumbent VP
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,278

    There is a propensity for celebrities to have a trans child. Of course, no such thing as a trans child, just a parent proxying their transhaussen.
    "...no such thing as a trans child,"

    That is 100% bullshit.

    At school in my early teens, I had a very good friend who was trans. He wanted to be a woman. At the time, all he could do was dress as a girl/woman in his own room at home, then later in his bedsit at school. It was my first experience of both transvestitism and transsexualism. We went to uni together, where he could be much more open about his sexuality and lifestyle.

    A couple of decades ago, he underwent the op and now goes by a woman's name. But I have zero doubt that he was trans when I first knew him, aged 13 or so.

    So yes, kids can be trans. And his dad, from a classic Pakistani background, was *not* understanding or tolerant.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,717
    edited November 2024
    HYUFD said:
    Kaplan had Harris 5 points ahead in August - Harris 49% - Trump 44%. Trump has had a good campaign to turn it around.

    https://kaplanstrategies.com/2024/08/25/national-poll/
  • Harris is 6/4

    That is value imho.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    Does MAGA die with Trump (like Corbyn) or do they try and keep it going?
  • Exactly like that. Coming as trans should be celebrated like coming out as anorexic.
    Oh fuck off, then fuck off some more, until you disappear into the horizon.

    I have mentioned a friend of mine and her kid is trans.

    I've known them since they were 9 and now 32 and they've never been happier than in the last 7 years since they felt comfortable in as identifying as trans.
  • There is a propensity for celebrities to have a trans child. Of course, no such thing as a trans child, just a parent proxying their transhaussen.

    "There is a propensity for celebrities to have a gay child. Of course, no such thing as a gay child..."

    "Children are being taught that they have an inalienable right to be gay..."
  • If Trump loses, who will go next? Will Trump have another go?

    He said not the other day.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,345
    Scott_xP said:

    Does MAGA die with Trump (like Corbyn) or do they try and keep it going?

    Corbyn has not died yet, and I’m pretty sure he wouldn’t want to die with Trump.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,115
    HYUFD said:

    DeSantis
    I think unless they get absolutely thrashed JD Vance will be the heir apparent. He's a lot smarter than Trump but, quite possibly, even madder.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050

    Harris is 6/4

    That is value imho.

    I put my Kemi winnings on Kamala. Let's see if they can do the double...
  • Oh fuck off, then fuck off some more, until you disappear into the horizon.

    I have mentioned a friend of mine and her kid is trans.

    I've known them since they were 9 and now 32 and they've never been happier than in the last 7 years since they felt comfortable in as identifying as trans.
    If they were anorexic, would you collude with them and encourage them in them identifying as fat ?
  • If they were anorexic, would you collude with them and encourage them in them identifying as fat ?
    If you genuinely think being trans is analogous to being anorexic then there's no point in having a discussion with you.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,345

    He said not the other day.
    That’s hardly conclusive. He also said he didn’t try to overthrow the e government.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,148

    Tennant’s attack was on Badenoch and he wished for a world where she didn’t exist and that she would shut up.
    If wishing for a world where Badenoch doesn't exist and that she would shut up is a sin, then there are a lot of sinners, including half of PB.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690
    edited November 2024

    If they were anorexic, would you collude with them and encourage them in them identifying as fat ?
    I know trans people who have killed themselves and anorexic people who have got very close to doing so....

    For one of those people it was the lack of acceptance that was the problem, for the other one it was the avoidance of difficult conversations that nearly killed them.

    So not exactly the best question given that the solutions the people who care for them have to follow are 100% opposite..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872

    Ugh.

    The NHS will pay the King’s duchy £11m over 15 years to rent a warehouse for ambulances...it is being charged 67% more than the previous tenants paid.

    Great reporting from Sunday Times Insight team
    @Arbuthnott

    @JCalvertST

    @KatieTarrant_

    @thetimes


    https://x.com/ShaunLintern/status/1852748219391860988

    Landlord charges tenant rent shock
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,872
    DavidL said:

    I think unless they get absolutely thrashed JD Vance will be the heir apparent. He's a lot smarter than Trump but, quite possibly, even madder.
    He would run against DeSantis but DeSantis would be favourite as untainted by Trump and Vance defeat in that scenario.
  • HYUFD said:

    Landlord charges tenant rent shock
    Your spinning for the Royal Family is one of the stranger things I’ve seen here. What’s your angle?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,717

    If you genuinely think being trans is analogous to being anorexic then there's no point in having a discussion with you.
    There are many different types of people who go under the umbrella category of 'trans'. I suspect you are talking at cross purposes because you have a different types in mind.
  • Jonathan said:

    Have you ever been upset and commented publicly in strong terms when political matters impact your children?
    Yes. And I've never said the world would be better off if the other person didn't exist.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690
    edited November 2024

    If you genuinely think being trans is analogous to being anorexic then there's no point in having a discussion with you.
    Also isn't one of @RochdalePioneers children Trans? Again I think they are far happier now then they used to be..
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690
    HYUFD said:

    Landlord charges tenant rent shock
    Landlord charges tenant current market rent (even bigger shock)..
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336

    Your spinning for the Royal Family is one of the stranger things I’ve seen here. What’s your angle?
    @BatteryCorrectHorse meet @HYUFD, @HYUFD meet @BatteryCorrectHorse
  • Labour’s support in Scotland has plunged in the wake of Rachel Reeves’s budget, which voters believe will hit them in their pockets and damage the country, a new poll has found.

    Backing for Anas Sarwar’s party has dropped to such an extent that it would be virtually impossible for him to form a Scottish government if the results were replicated at the Holyrood 2026 election.

    The poll by Norstat, the first conducted in Scotland since the chancellor unveiled her tax and spending plans, suggested that while voters felt warmly about the budget’s main policies, they felt that they would lose out overall.

    The research put support for Labour in Scottish parliamentary constituencies at 23 per cent, a drop of seven points since the last survey in August and the lowest since Nicola Sturgeon quit as first minister last March. Backing for Scottish Labour on the more proportional regional list fell by six points to 22 per cent.

    Analysis by Sir John Curtice, the polling expert and professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, found this would leave Labour with 29 MSPs, an increase of seven on its current level.

    The SNP has failed to capitalise on Labour’s woes — remaining unchanged on 33 per cent for constituency votes and increasing backing by only one point to 29 per cent on the regional list — but its projected return of 51 MSPs would almost certainly see John Swinney remain first minister despite losing 13 seats compared with the 2021 election.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scottish-labour-popularity-poll-rachel-reeves-budget-2024-5jmhqwjkr

    It's Scotland, so a real longshot,but one wonders what the upper limits of how well the SCons might do up there are.
  • HYUFD said:

    DeSantis and Haley would be frontrunners if he loses, Vance if he wins as incumbent VP
    Haley is the Tugendhat of the Republicans.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,717

    It's Scotland, so a real longshot,but one wonders what the upper limits of how well the SCons might do up there are.
    When was the last time we had a party leader with a name as ostentatiously Scottish as Badenoch?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690
    F1 - qualifying now at 10:30 UK time, race now 3:30 UK time..
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited November 2024

    I still don’t think we have any party anywhere in world, in power during this historic credit crunch after Covid reboot, who have won their election.

    Even dominant parties in Japan and Botswana who rarely or never lose, have been defeated.

    This was a change year in US politics, if Dems win it (they won’t though) it would all be down to what a totally abysmal unelectable candidate Donald Trump actually was.

    The GOP have lost their way and need a reset. If Dems get another 4 years here, with voters knowing they are worse off and seriously feeling it, it’s a bonus, and everything Dems do with the power will be a bonus.
    Incumbent Saskatchewan Party just won re-election in . . . wait for it . . . Saskatchewan!

    Addendum - Ditto the incumbent provincial New Democratic Party in British Columbia.

    However, in both case opposition parties made significant gains, and ALMOST prevailed.
  • I don't understand the idea the Royal Family should live like the rest of us. That would mean they weren't Royal.

    I can understand (although on a pragmatic basis disagree with) republicanism. But not that.
  • When was the last time we had a party leader with a name as ostentatiously Scottish as Badenoch?
    2016.

    David William Donald Cameron.
  • The Lincoln Project
    @ProjectLincoln

    The award-winning cast of The West Wing reunited to endorse VP Kamala Harris for President in a new ad created in partnership with the Lincoln Project.

    https://x.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1852793137497858142

    Wow. Now there's a surprise!
  • HYUFD said:

    No he would have to cut or sell renewable energy schemes and affordable homes on his land to pay for the IHT and sell more land to developers at full price
    So?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336

    I don't understand the idea the Royal Family should live like the rest of us. That would mean they weren't Royal.

    I can understand (although on a pragmatic basis disagree with) republicanism. But not that.

    Yes, it really is hard to get worked up about the fact that the King is a landowner and charges rent.
This discussion has been closed.